Accelerating the Australian Army's Contest of Ideas
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AUSTRALIA JOANNE NICHOLSON, MARIGOLD BLACK, JADE YEUNG Accelerating the Australian Army’s Contest of Ideas The research described in this RAND Australia report was sponsored by the Australian Army Research Centre and led by RAND Australia and was conducted within RAND Australia under Contract AARC S01/2020. About RAND Australia RAND Australia’s mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. To learn more about RAND Australia, visit www.rand.org/australia Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © 2021 RAND Australia R® is a registered trademark. For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA1078-1 About This Report The Australian Army, as an Army in Motion, prides itself on its pursuit of an intellectual edge. The Chief of Army stressed in his 2020 Accelerated Warfare Statement the impor- tance of an ongoing Contest of Ideas to ensure that the Army does not rest on its laurels and keeps pace with rapidly changing events and technology. Accompanying this is a call to make how this contest occurs more transparent and accessible to all those within the Army, taking advantage of the dif fer ent media through which ideas can be presented. To this end, this report proposes that the Contest of Ideas can be conceptualised as an “innovation flow” whereby it starts with an input (the ideas that go in), develops (as it is discussed and debated through the organisation), and ultimately results in an output (what comes out as impact). It is acknowledged that the term “innovation” is enjoying popu- lar use within Defence at this time, particularly with re spect to approaches to developing technology. Therefore, it is impor tant to note that in this research we have constrained the innovation flow at this stage to ideation— the formation of ideas and concepts. Examining a range of such idea flows within several dif fer ent fora such as the Austra- lian Army Journal (AAJ) or the Land Power Forum (LPF) provides insight into their scope and who contributes to them. By analysing words used, unique time periods are identifi- able which reflect strongly the associated current events. The Accelerated Warfare Statement is referred to often on the LPF, which is repre- sentative of the currently preferred blogging medium, where raw ideas (initial inputs) are easily presented. Remaining consistent with its history, the AAJ, at least, should in time be a forum where these ideas are contested, and implications of Accelerated Warfare emerge as credible, evidence- based initiatives with impact, but with much broader owner ship across the Army, given their beginnings. In previous issues of the AAJ, the influence of the Chief of Army on ideation is evident, as alongside the Chief’s personal contributions, a discourse in the Army involving its staff can be witnessed which arrives at culminating outputs, often highlighted in a special issue of the journal. If full advantage is to be taken of the dif fer ent fora now available to submit contribu- tions across all phases of an innovation flow, much more proactive management of those fora and inputs, and identification of their specific contribution to the flow, are needed to render impact. The Australian Army Research Centre (AARC), with its role as a research hub and facilitator of innovative thinking, may be best positioned for this. This research was sponsored by the AARC and led by RAND Australia. For more information about RAND Australia, see www.rand.org/australia or contact the RAND Australia Director listed on the webpage. iii Contents About This Report ............................................ iii Figures ................................................... vii Tables ....................................................ix Summary ................................................. xi Acknowl edgments ............................................ xv Abbreviations .............................................. xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ................................................1 Background .................................................1 Research Purpose and Aims ........................................2 CHAPTER TWO Approach Overview ............................................5 Data ......................................................5 Analy sis Approach .............................................6 CHAPTER THREE RAND- Lex Keyness Analy sis ......................................7 Data and Analy sis Methods ........................................7 Initial Findings— Over Time .......................................8 Observations ................................................ 10 Initial Findings— Comparing Dif fer ent Data Sources (AAJ and LPF) .............. 10 Observations ................................................ 10 Further Research ............................................. 12 CHAPTER FOUR Categorisations .............................................. 13 Data and Analy sis Methods ....................................... 13 Initial Findings— AAJ Articles and LPF Blog Posts ......................... 14 Observations ................................................ 16 Initial Findings— ARS Reports ..................................... 16 Observations ................................................ 16 Future Research .............................................. 17 CHAPTER FIVE Articles and Authors .......................................... 19 Data and Analy sis Methods ....................................... 19 Initial Findings .............................................. 19 v vi Accelerating the Army’s Contest of Ideas Observations ................................................20 Future Research ..............................................22 Data and Methods— Articles by Rank .................................22 Initial Findings ..............................................22 Observations ................................................22 Future Research ..............................................24 CHAPTER SIX RAND- Lex Stance Analy sis ...................................... 25 Data and Methods ............................................ 25 Initial Findings .............................................. 25 Observations ................................................26 Future Research ..............................................27 CHAPTER SEVEN Longitudinal Study ...........................................29 Data and Methods ............................................29 Initial Findings— Numbers of Articles .................................29 Observations— Numbers of Articles ..................................30 Initial Findings— Thematic Analy sis .................................. 31 Observations ................................................34 Future Research .............................................. 35 CHAPTER EIGHT Further Work ...............................................37 Keyness Testing of Other Army Sources ................................37 Determination of the Role of the ASFA Framework .........................37 Who Is Generating the Ideas? ......................................37 CHAPTER NINE Summary and Conclusions ...................................... 39 APPENDIX A. Leading Article Contributors ................................... 41 References .................................................43 Figures 1.1. Contest of Ideas Depicted as an Innovation Flow .....................2 4.1. AAJ Articles and LPF Blog Posts Classified by 2017 ASFA Categories ........ 15 4.2. ARS Reports Classified by 2017 ASFA Categories ................... 17 6.1. Public Virtue of the AARC Work (Excluding ARS), 2014–2020 ...........26 6.2. Public Virtue AAJ, 1999–2013 ...............................26 7.1. Articles Published in AAJ (1999–2020) with LPF Blog Posts (2014–2020) for Comparison . 30 7.2. Realisation of Ideas ..................................... 32 7.3. Counterinsurgency Flow of Ideas .............................34 vii Tables 3.1. Words with Highest Increase in Usage in 2014–2018 Compared with 2019–2020 . 8 3.2. Words with Highest Increase in Usage in 2019–2020 Compared with 2014–2018 . 9 3.3. Words Used Most Frequently in the AAJ ......................... 10 3.4. Words Used Most Frequently in the LPF ......................... 11 4.1. Top 2017 ASFA Categories by Source ........................... 14 5.1. Author Characteristics, by Source .............................20 5.2. Rank Breakdown for Authors ...............................23 7.1. Chiefs of the Australian Army, 2000– Pre sent ...................... 33 A.1. Authors Who Contributed Five or More Articles .................... 41 ix Summary Introduction The current Chief of Army stressed in his 2020 Accelerated Warfare Statement the impor- tance of an ongoing Contest of Ideas to ensure that the Army does not rest on its laurels and keeps pace with rapidly changing events and technology. This reflects the organisa- tion’s “Army in Motion” philosophy and its intent to develop its intellectual capital. The Australian Army Research Centre (AARC) is at the front line of this Contest of Ideas, rais- ing the level of professional debate on war and its challenges within the Army. It delivers this principally through a range of publications: the Australian Army Journal (AAJ), the Land Power Forum (LPF), longer standalone research papers, and research initiatives con- tracted through the Army Research Scheme (ARS), which has an annual