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Gartner Analyst Relations Forum Why Enterprise AR Should Care About Consumer IT Martin Reynolds, GTM Gartner Consumer Research 1 We are entering a new era of personal computing. The cloud will replace the PC as the location where users keep their personal content, access their services, and personal preferences and center their digital lives. It will be the glue that connects the web of connected devices they choose to use during the different aspects of their daily life. Technology providers and IT organizations must align to this new reality of consumerization. Our Consumer Research Team • 40 analysts around the globe • Covers devices, services and consumer dynamics • Works across Gartner teams • Resegmenting forecasts to common definitions • Using economic and behavioral models • Integrating social content through the research 3 How Our Consumer Research Can Help AR to Help the Business Grow • Strategy • Product development • Marketing • Market & Competitive Intelligence Key Insights for Enterprise-only Providers: - All applications must face consumers - All tools must be “sticky” - Security must be positive, not negative - Behavior and needs, not features and speeds 4 Consumer Dynamics Market Segments and Buyer Behavior Consumer Infotainment Spending Will Grow Past $2.2 Trillion in 2014 Forces Content Megatrends 10% $200 Billion • A boost will come from CAGR 2010-2015 = 9% Mobile Services 35% mobile subscribers in $700 Billion CAGR 2010-2015 = 5% emerging markets. • Broadband will be Devices 28% available everywhere. $600 Billion Total Services CAGR 2010-2015 = 6% 62% • Mobile Internet will hit $1.2 Trillion CAGR 2010-2015 = 4% the mainstream. • Social apps will upend Video Services behavior and brands. Fixed Services 8% $100 Billion 19% CAGR 2010-2015 = 8% $400 Billion CAGR 2010-2015 = 1% By 2015, consumers will spend $2.8 trillion annually on digital information, and entertainment products and services Use Attitudinal Profiles to Target Buyers Changes 60% Bigger Opportunity in 2012 18% Professional Achievers 40% Aspirers Young Fun Most Common 10% Seekers Targets in 2010 8% Techno Stragglers Traditionalists Involvement 7% 2% 7% 20% 9% 12% 17% 22% 8% Worker Bees 18% 13% Ba sic 9% Survivors Comfortable Tech Savants Conformists 0% Late adopter Adoption of New Tech Early adopter Involvement = Consumer perception of importance or personal relevance of a product based on intensity of stated need across 10 parameters Based on Gartner report: "Marketing Essentials: How to Segment the Consumer Market" (G00172815) 4,000 Survey Completes 7 in 2011 Consumer Devices Mobile Operating Systems, Tablets and Smartphones A Different Way to Look at Relationships - Behavioral Segmentation for Devices Connectivity 5 4 Unifunction vs Portability multifunction 3 2 1 Notebook PC Ultra Mobile Notebook 0 Premium Comm Devices Personalised Creation Media tablets Usability Consumption There are 4 categories of devices that will compete for consumers’ budgets: Ultra Mobile Notebooks, Premium Comm Devices, Media Tablets and E-readers. Media Tablets’ strengths Portability, Multifunction, Personalization Media Tablets’ weaknesses 9 Creation Which Mobile OS Technologies Will Dominate the Market? Growth New platforms" (e.g., Open OS Handset Sales by Platform augmented reality tools) Percent 60 Scriptable mapping tools 50 40 Platform substitutes 30 (e.g., Air, Qt, Flash, 20 Silverlight, etc.) 10 Mobile Browser + HTML5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Symbian Android RIM Apple iOS Microsoft LiMo Foundation Mobile OS Bada WebOS MeeGo Palm OS Others Plan devices against platforms, apps and services. Growth Media Tablets Change Everything Changes Sales to End Users (K) 350,000 300,000 300 million Connected E-Readers Total 250,000 Connected Game Handhelds Total 200,000 Connected Imaging Devices Total 150,000 Connected Personal Navigation Device Total Connected Portable Media 100,000 Players Total Media Tablets Total 50,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Gartner’s insight into consumer behavior can help you succeed. What Technologies Will Disrupt the Devices Market? Changes expectations Bluetooth 3.0 Wireless Power Pico Projectors Voice to Text on Mobile Devices Mobile Devices High-Performance Multicore Near-Field Communication Application Processors Technology Hype Cycle Augmented Reality Bluetooth 4.0 Solar Power Mobile Devices Gesture Recognition Mobile WLAN Access Points Wireless Remote Display 60GHz and 5GHz MEMS Gyroscopes Magnetometer Smartphone Hypervisors MEMS Displays Head-Mounted Displays Ensemble Interactions Indoor Positioning Dual Noise Cancellation Wi-Fi Remote Display Software-Defined Radio Haptics Mobile High-Definition Link GPS HD Voice Volumetric and Holographic Displays AMOLED Quantum Tunneling Composite (QTC) Mobile Browsers Mobile Transphones Phone Bar Multitouch 802.11ac Code Reader Device-Embedded Biometric Authentication Mobile Widgets Quantum Dot Displays 802.11n Photonic Crystal Displays Electrofluidic and Electrowetting Bio-Acoustic Sensing Display Technology As of July 2010 Peak of Technology Trough of Plateau of Inflated Slope of Enlightenment Trigger Disillusionment Productivity Expectations time obsolete Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 more than 10 before years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years years plateau 12 Consumer Services and Social Platforms Wireless Transport, Social Platforms, Context-Aware Services and Apps What's the Value of the Social Consumer? Reduced Cost Increased Building of Operations Revenues Brands Increased customer Engaging service Increase brand enthusiasts value Better and Reaching new more efficient Increase value consumers support of goods and services sold Happier customers Social networking is critical to your business. 14 Context Is the "Killer App" for Mobility Changes Context = People + Place + Proximity + Activity Types of context services: • Location-based services — Vodafone Navigator, Foursquare • Presence — Twitter, Instagram, Google, AIM • Social networking — Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn • Mobile advertising — amAze, Mobile Posse, AdMob, iAds By 2015, context will be more influential to mobile consumer services and relationships than search engines are to the Web. Bottom line: Not offering context service may mean leaving one of the most effective ways of customer ownership to the competition. 15 Mobile Ads Monetize Context and Social Networking: "Hyperlocal" Is the Key Grow Driving Factors Falling Into Place, Ready for Strong Growth 2010: 0.5% of total worldwide advertising budget US$ Millions 2015: >4% of budget Source: Mobile Advertising Forecast, March 2011 Consumer Applications and Services Hype Cycle Changes expectations Rich Communication Suite Augmented Reality Mobile Health Monitoring Internet TV Mobile Money Transfer Ultra-High-Speed Broadband Internet Mobile Social Networks Mobile Coupons Mobile VoIP NFC Payment Residential VoIP Personal Navigation Mobile OTA Payment Full-Track Music Downloads Socialcasting Ensemble Interactions Bar Code Marketing Mobile TV Streaming Context-Enriched Services Indoor Positioning Location-Based Services Mobile Sports and Fitness Mobile Advertising Mobile E-Mail Services Mobile Virtual Worlds Mobile Music Streaming HD Voice Mobile Ticketing Mobile TV Broadcasting Voice-to-Text Mobile Instant Messaging Consumer Telepresence Conversion Services 3D TV Services Network DVR Online Video Mobile Search TV Widgets Mobile Application Stores FMC: Consumer Applications Mobile Learning Mobile Widgets Mobile Banking IPTV As of July 2010 Peak of Technology Trough of Plateau of Inflated Slope of Enlightenment Trigger Expectations Disillusionment Productivity time obsolete Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 more than 10 before years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years years plateau 17 Summary • Cloud is personal • Gartner has a serious consumer research effort • Our new economic and behavioral approaches create new ways to understand products and markets • Every technology provider and IT department has to deal with yet more new cloud realities • We can help strategic planners, product managers and marketers align with consumer forces 18 .
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