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www.pwc.com Manhattan lodging index First quarter 2013 This quarter: Manhattan Lodging Overview Employment Trends Gross Metro Product and Consumer Price Index Office Market Statistics Air Traffic Statistics Recent Manhattan Hotel Transactions Recent and Planned Hotel Openings and Closings First Quarter Performance Manhattan lodging overview In the first quarter, Manhattan's average daily rate ("ADR") and occupancy levels saw healthy increases, resulting in a robust growth in revenue per available room ("RevPAR"). During the first quarter of 2013, Manhattan's occupancy levels increased 4.4 percent to 80.0 percent. Pricing power continued to improve as ADR experienced healthy growth, increasing 5.5 percent. This combination led to a 10.2 percent increase in RevPAR in the first quarter, compared to year-ago levels; the highest since the first quarter increase of 10.3 percent in 2008. Manhattan Q1 RevPAR growth by month Jan Feb Mar 20.0% 15.0% 12.7% 10.2% 10.5% 10.0% 9.2% 7.2% 5.0% 2.7% 0.0% 2011 to 2012 2012 to 2013 Source: PwC, based on Smith Travel Research data On the basis of class, all segments experienced increases in RevPAR from year-ago levels, driven by a combination of both ADR and occupancy growth. The upper midscale segment ended the first quarter with the highest increase in RevPAR, experiencing an 11.8 percent improvement over the prior year period. The upscale, upper-upscale, and luxury segments experienced RevPAR increases of 10.4 percent, 10.0 percent, and 9.1 percent, respectively. At the neighborhood level, all submarkets experienced RevPAR growth in the first quarter of 2013, with growth driven by a combination of both ADR and occupancy. Upper Manhattan led in RevPAR growth, experiencing a quarterly increase of 14.9 percent. Midtown South, Midtown West, Lower Manhattan, and Midtown East all experienced a robust growth in RevPAR, with increases of 12.8 percent, 10.7 percent, 8.2 percent, and 6.7 percent, respectively. Limited-service hotels outperformed full-service hotels in terms of RevPAR growth, experiencing a 13.0 percent increase, compared to 9.8 percent for full-service hotels. Manhattan lodging index First quarter 2013 PwC Page 1 Independent hotels outpaced chain-affiliated hotels in RevPAR growth, experiencing an 11.7 percent gain, compared to a 9.3 percent increase for chain-affiliated hotels. Manhattan Q1 performance, 19-year trend $400 95% $350 90% 85% $300 80% $250 R y A 75% c P n v a e $200 p R u / c R 70% c D O A $150 65% $100 60% $50 55% $0 50% '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 ADR RevPAR OCC Source: PwC, based on Smith Travel Research data Manhattan lodging index First quarter 2013 PwC Page 2 Employment trends Manhattan lodging index First quarter 2013 PwC Page 3 compared to year-ago levels. According toThe the New New York York City State labor Department market of continued Labor, to New improve as unemployment rates declined PwCManhattan lodging index First quarter 2013 Source: New York State Department of Labor Page 4 month period ended March 2013 New York City Unemployment for the 24- manufacturing, which lost 1,400 jobs, andlosses the for information this sector, 12-month which period lost includedjobs, 300 financial leisure jobs. activities, and which hospitality, lost which 5,800 gainedwhich jobs, 1,500 gained jobs. 4,700 The jobs, sectors natural that resources,22,700 experienced mining jobs, job and trade, construction, transportation which and gained utilities,business 2,500 which services, gained which 11,200 gained jobs, 22,800 other jobs,1.8 services, education percent, and to health 3,358,800. services, During which theended gained period, March job 2013, growth New occurred York in City'sAccording professional private to and sector the employment New increased York by State 57,900, Department or of Labor,from for the the fourth twelve-month quarter period of 2012,The averaging average approximately US 7.7 unemployment percent. rate during the first quarterquarter of of 2013 2013, decreased down slightly 1.2 percentNew from York the State's same seasonally period adjusted last unemploymentquarter year. rate of averaged 2013, a 8.3 decline percent of inYork the approximately City's first 5.2 seasonally percent adjusted from unemployment the rate same averaged period 9.0 last percent year. in the first Number of People Unemployed (thousands) 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 50 0 Apr-2011 May-2011 Number of People Unemployed Jun-2011 Jul-2011 Aug-2011 Sep-2011 Oct-2011 Nov-2011 Dec-2011 Jan-2012 Feb-2012 Mar-2012 Apr-2012 Unemployment Rate May-2012 Jun-2012 Jul-2012 Aug-2012 Sep-2012 Oct-2012 Nov-2012 Dec-2012 Jan-2013 Feb-2013 Mar-2013 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Unemployment Rate Gross metro product and consumer price Index Manhattan lodging index First quarter 2013 PwC Page 5 The US economic recovery accelerated in the first quarter of 2013. According to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US real gross domestic product ("GDP") increased at a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate of 2.5 percent. This quarter's increase was primarily driven by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (“PCE”), which increased by 3.2 percent, a positive sign for the domestic lodging sector. Other factors that contributed to an increase in GDP included private inventory investment, which increased approximately 1.0 percent, exports, which increased 2.9 percent, residential investment, which increased 12.6 percent, and non- residential fixed investment, which increased 2.1 percent. These increases were partly offset by declines in federal government spending and state and local government spending. At the local level, New York's gross metro product is expected to increase by 2.8 percent in 2013, according to Moody's Economy.com forecast as of January 2013. New York City's consumer price index ("CPI") increased by an average of 2.1 percent during the first quarter, above the 1.7 percent increase in national CPI. Consumer price index 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Jan '01 Jan '02 Jan '03 Jan '04 Jan '05 Jan '06 Jan '07 Jan '08 Jan '09 Jan '10 Jan '11 Jan'12 Jan'13 New York City MSA Inflation Estimates US Inflation Estimates Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Manhattan lodging index First quarter 2013 PwC Page 6 Office market statistics Manhattan lodging index First quarter 2013 PwC Page 7 vacancy rates decreased to approximately 7.9Manhattan's percent, office down market 0.4 showed percent positive from results year-ago in the first quarter of 2013, as overall PwCManhattan lodging index First quarter 2013 extension term will take effect. through its current lease expiration insquare 2022, foot after for which its the space unreported onsquare rent the feet for lower at the floors 520 and Madison $103 Avenue.March per Jefferies 2013, square currently investment foot pays bank, for a Jefferies, the reported signedsigned upper rent a a floors of 15-year long-term $90 lease lease per renewal at for 11reported 450,000 Times rent Square of for approximately an $50 undisclosed per112,000 rent square square per foot. feet square Also on foot. in the In February 14 square 2013, foot. Microsoft In February 2013, thefeet, insurance the brokerage entire firm, 8 Aon, signedAccording a to sublease The for Real Deal, in January 2013, IBM signedSource: a PwC, sublease based for on CBRE 54,045 Economic square Advisors data Page 8 Gross asking rents and vacancy rates percent. Midtown submarket experienced gross asking rents$43.90 of per $68.10 square per foot, square up foot, 14.1During up percent the 3.9 from same the period, same the period Downtownsubmarket's last submarket vacancy year, experienced rate while gross was the asking 8.2 rents percent,0.7 of up percentage 0.2 points percentage compared points to relative theDuring to same the last period first year. last quarter, year, the while Downtown the submarket's Midtown vacancy ratesquare was foot, 6.9 compared percent, to down the samelevels, period while last gross year. asking rents increased by approximately 5.6 percent to $61.89 per Gross Asking Rents ($/SF) $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $0 Gross Asking Rents ($/SF) 2000 2001 th 2002 floor of the 63 Madison Avenue building for an unreported rent per 2003 2004 2005 th , 21 2006 st , 22 2007 Vacancy Rate (%) nd 2008 , and 23 2009 2010 rd 2011 floors at 299 Park Avenue for a 2012 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 10% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Vacancy rates (%) According to Real Capital Analytics, in January 2013, Besen & Associates purchased the 42,176,000 square-foot Fine Arts Building at 232 East 59th Street for approximately $806 per square foot from 232 Battaglia Realty LLC. In February 2013, a joint venture between Carlyle Group and ClearRock Properties purchased the 107,865 square-foot office building at 920 Broadway from The Estate of Muriel Block on behalf of Yeshiva University for a reported price of $542 per square foot. In March 2013, a joint venture between Chetrit Group and Clipper Equity purchased the 855,000 square-foot Sony Plaza at 550 Madison from Sony for approximately $1,287 per square foot. Also in March 2013, Glenwood Management purchased the 7,895 square-foot former International Longevity Center office building at 60 East 86th Street for approximately $2,812 per square foot from Columbia University.
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