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Manhattan Lodging Overview

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Manhattan Lodging Overview Manhattan Fourth Quarter 2009 Lodging Index Manhattan Lodging Overview This quarter: Although Manhattan’s occupancy increased in the fourth quarter, ADR • Manhattan Lodging Overview continued to be under signifi cant pressure, resulting in RevPAR declines • Employment Trends • Gross Metro Product and After declining for four consecutive quarters, Manhattan’s occupancy levels Consumer Price Index increased robustly in the fourth quarter of 2009, in part due to signifi cant rate discounting, which resulted in continued decline in average daily rate • Offi ce Market Statistics (“ADR”) and revenue per available room (“RevPAR”) levels. Manhattan’s • Air Traffi c Statistics occupancy levels increased by an average of 3.2 percent from year-ago levels in the fourth quarter, resulting in an average occupancy of 83.9 • Recent Manhattan Hotel percent. After steep declines of 30.2 percent and 26.8 percent in the second Transactions and third quarters, respectively, average daily rate declines moderated in • Recent and Planned Hotel the fourth quarter to 16.1 percent, resulting in a 13.4 percent decline in Openings and Closings RevPAR over year-ago levels. • Fourth Quarter Performance Manhattan Q4 RevPAR Growth by Month 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% Oct Nov Dec 2007 to 2008 2008 to 2009 Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, based on Smith Travel Research data *connectedthinking The midprice segment ended the fourth quarter with the highest drop in RevPAR, experiencing a 14.6 percent decline for the period, followed by the upscale and luxury segments, both down 13.1 percent. On a year-end basis, the midprice segment experienced a 27.6 percent decline in RevPAR, followed by the upscale and luxury segments, which experienced RevPAR declines of 26.8 percent and 24.8 percent, respectively. At the sub-market level, Midtown East led all sub-markets in RevPAR decline, experiencing a quarterly RevPAR drop of 15.8 percent, compared to the same period in 2008, primarily due to an 18.3 percent decline in ADR, the biggest drop amongst all the sub-markets. All neighborhoods, except Upper Manhattan, experienced increases in occupancy during the fourth quarter. Upper Manhattan’s occupancy decreased 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter to 74.4 percent, the lowest occupancy level amongst all sub-markets. On a year-end basis, Upper Manhattan experienced the largest decline in RevPAR amongst all the sub-markets, followed closely by Midtown South and Lower Manhattan sub-markets. Full-service hotels experienced a 4.0 percentage point greater decline in RevPAR levels than limited-service hotels in the fourth quarter of 2009. On a year-end basis, full-service and limited-service hotels experienced similar levels of RevPAR decline of approximately 26 percent. Chain-affi liated and independent hotels experienced similar levels of RevPAR declines for both the fourth quarter as well as the year-end, declining by approximately 13.5 percent in the fourth quarter and by approximately 26.7 percent on a year-end basis. Manhattan Q4 Performance, 15-year Trend $400.00 95.0% $350.00 90.0% 85.0% $300.00 80.0% $250.00 75.0% $200.00 70.0% $150.00 Occupancy ADR / RevPAR ADR / 65.0% $100.00 60.0% $50.00 55.0% $0.00 50.0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ADR RevPAR OCC Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, based on Smith Travel Research data Manhattan Lodging Index Fourth Quarter 2009 2 Employment Trends According to the New York State Department of Labor, New York City’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate grew to an average of 10.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, up 57.8 percent from the same period last year. The City’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 10.5 percent in November and December was the City’s highest re- corded unemployment level since April 1993. New York State’s season- ally adjusted unemployment rate averaged 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, up 42.0 percent from the same period last year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total US unemploy- ment rate averaged 10.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, reach- ing 10.1 percent in October, the highest US unemployment rate since June 1983. According to the New York State Department of Labor, for the 12-month period ending January 2010, New York City’s private sector employment fell by 78,100, or 2.5 percent, to 3,061,100. Sectors that experienced the largest job losses in New York City for this 12-month period included professional and business services, which lost 25,600 jobs, fi nancial services, which lost 24,800 jobs, and trade, transporta- tion and utilities, which lost 17,600 jobs. Two sectors that experienced job gains during the twelve month period ended January 2010 in- cluded educational and health services, which gained 13,300 jobs and leisure and hospitality, which gained 2,500 jobs. New York City Unemployment for the 18-month Period Ended December 2009 450 12% 400 10% 350 300 8% 250 6% 200 150 4% Number of People of Number Unemployment Rate Unemployment Unemployed (thousands) Unemployed 100 2% 50 0 0% Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov-Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov-Dec- 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 Number of People Unemployed Unemployment Rate Source: New York State Department of Labor Manhattan Lodging Index Fourth Quarter 2009 3 Gross Metro Product and Consumer Price Index After contracting signifi cantly during the fi rst two quarters of this year and increasing moderately during the third quarter, marking an end to four quarters of continuous decline, US real gross domestic product (“GDP”) is estimated to have increased at a seasonally-adjusted annualized pace of 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. The US economy is making a successful transition to the early stages of recovery. While conditions are far from normal, GDP growth is fi rming, job losses have slowed considerably, housing markets show signs of stabilizing, and fi nancial markets have improved. According to Moody’s Economy.com, New York’s gross metro product is estimated to have declined by 2.3 percent in 2009 and is expected to grow 1.4 percent in 2010, the lowest growth rate in at least eight years. The New York City consumer price index (“CPI”) for October 2009 remained the same as October 2008, followed by increases of 1.8 percent and 2.3 percent in November and December 2009, respectively. For the fourth quarter, New York City CPI increased by an average of 1.4 percent, compared to an average increase of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. Consumer Price Index 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Jan '01 Jan '02 Jan '03 Jan '04 Jan '05 Jan '06 Jan '07 Jan '08 Jan '09 New York City MSA Inflation Estimates US Inflation Estimates Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Manhattan Lodging Index Fourth Quarter 2009 4 Offi ce Market Statistics Although the US economy exhibited strength during the fourth quarter, New York’s offi ce market continued to exhibit weakness, as businesses, particularly in the fi nancial services and professional services sectors, continued to be cautious. During the fourth quarter, gross asking rents in Manhattan decreased by approximately 21.6 percent to $46.02 per square foot, with vacancy rates increasing to approximately 7.1 percent, up 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year. Continuing the trend from the previous quarter, the Midtown sub-market experienced a higher vacancy rate than the Downtown sub-market, although the Midtown sub- market operated with higher gross asking rents. Both the Downtown and Midtown sub-markets experienced increases in vacancy rates, compared to the same period last year, with the Midtown sub-market experiencing a larger increase (1.9 percentage points) than the Downtown sub-market (0.7 percentage point). Consequently, in the third quarter of 2009, the vacancy rate in Midtown was 7.3 percent, compared to 6.7 percent in Downtown Manhattan. For the same period, gross asking rent in Midtown was $49.24 per square foot, down 21.4 percent compared to same period last year, while the gross asking rent in Downtown was $36.50, down 22.7 percent compared to same period last year. Gross Asking Rents and Vacancy Rates $80 10% $70 8% $60 $50 6% $40 $30 4% $20 (%) rates Vacancy 2% Gross Asking Rents ($/SF) $10 $0 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q4 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Gross Asking Rents ($/SF) Vacancy Rate (%) Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, based on Torto Wheaton Research data Manhattan Lodging Index Fourth Quarter 2009 5 According to Crain’s New York, in December 2009, Orrick Herrington and Sutcliff e, a New York-based law fi rm signed a 15-year lease to rent approximately 213,231 square feet of space at 51 West 52nd Street, which is owned by CBS Broadcasting, Inc. The asking rent was reported to be between $60 and $70 per square foot. Also in December, Brazil’s Banco Itau signed a 15-year lease to rent approximately 25,000 square feet on the top fl oor of the General Motors Building. The asking rent for this deal was reported to be approximately $130 per square foot, which is expected to make this lease one of the priciest lease deals of 2009. Manhattan Lodging Index Fourth Quarter 2009 6 Air Traffi c Statistics Fourth quarter air traffi c levels increased slightly from year ago levels for all the three major New York metropolitan airports.
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