Interpreting the 2005-2018 Land Cover Change Figures of Bukidnon
ALARM-GAUP Analysis Team (ER2) Rowena Soriaga, PES/REDD+ Adviser Kumiko Shimamoto-Kubo, Forest Carbon Specialist Pedro Walpole SJ, Social Impacts Adviser Presentation Outline
❖ Context
❖ Analysis Method
❖ Key Findings
❖ Recommendations Context Philippine National REDD-Plus Strategy (PNRPS) identified the primary driver of deforestation and forest degradation as:
“uncertainty regarding the exact drivers and sites of deforestation and forest degradation, which limits ability to develop targeted and effective conservation interventions”
How can we manage a resource if we don’t know… …where it is? (location) …how much of it exists? (quantification) …what causes changes? (drivers, - and +) B A S E L I N E 0 U P D A T E L O C A T I O N QUANTIFICATION Tree cover stock change between 2005 & 2018
Bukidnon Bukidnon LC 2005 LC 2018 Difference % GAIN/LOSS Land Cover Land Cover percentage percentage between of the LAND COVER (LC) 2005 2018 of the Total of the Total 2018 and Difference Area (ha) Area (ha) land area land area 2005 (Ha) over 2005
NATURAL FOREST 225,961 213,066 25% 24% -12,896 -6% Mossy forest 129,135 109,353 14% 12% -19,782 -15% Primary 25,338 15,149 3% 2% -10,188 -40% Secondary 71,488 88,563 8% 10% 17,075 24%
PLANTATION FOREST 7,768 5,333 1% 1% -2,435 -31% Plantation trees 6,200 4,422 1% 0% -1,778 -29% Pine Plantation 1,568 910 0% 0% -658 -42% Other cover stock change between 2005 & 2018
Bukidnon Bukidnon LC 2005 LC 2018 Difference % GAIN/LOSS Land Cover Land Cover percentage percentage between of the LAND COVER (LC) 2005 2018 of the Total of the Total 2018 and Difference Area (ha) Area (ha) land area land area 2005 (Ha) over 2005
OTHER WOODED LAND 280,942 258,552 31% 28% -22,390 -8% Other Land With Tree Cover 121,852 167,518 13% 18% 45,666 37% Shrubland 159,090 91,033 18% 10% -68,056 -43%
OTHER LAND 192,007 73,216 21% 8% -118,791 -62% Grassland 192,007 73,216 21% 8% -118,791 -62%
PERENNIAL CROPLAND 29,155 73,459 3% 7% 44,304 152% Pineapple 18,626 24,890 2% 3% 6,264 34% Rubber 3,978 22,651 0% 2% 18,674 469% Banana 3,862 11,864 0% 1% 8,002 207% Mixed Coconut 2,218 11,858 0% 1% 9,640 435% Mango 416 0% 0% Oil palm 56 2,195 0% 0% 2,139 3,814% Other cover stock change between 2005 & 2018
Bukidnon Bukidnon LC 2005 LC 2018 Difference % GAIN/LOSS Land Cover Land Cover percentage percentage between of the LAND COVER (LC) 2005 2018 of the Total of the Total 2018 and Difference Area (ha) Area (ha) land area land area 2005 (Ha) over 2005
ANNUAL CROPLAND 145,332 266,955 16% 29% 121,623 84% Corn 60,779 114,912 7% 13% 54,132 89% Sugarcane 64,882 102,625 7% 11% 37,743 58% Rice 18,580 42,194 2% 5% 23,614 127% Cassava 835 7,224 0% 1% 6,389 765% High Value Crops 256 0%
OTHER 25,520 16,106 3% 1% -9,415 -37% Built-up areas 2,452 4,364 0% 0% 1,912 78% Road 6,127 4,060 1% 0% -2,067 -34% Agri-industrial establishment 208 1,110 0% 0% 902 434% River/Lake 8,826 6,572 1% 1% -2,254 -26% No Data 7,908 1% TOTAL 906,685 906,685 Contingency Matrix to quantify change
Secondary Plantation Pine Other land with tree High Value Agri-industrial LC2005 Mossy forest Primary forest Shrubland Grassland Pineapple Rubber Coconut Oil palm Banana Mango Sugarcane Corn Rice Cassava Built-up areas Road River/Lake No data TOTAL 2018 forest trees plantation cover crops establishment
LC2018
Mossy forest 97,588 1,186 6,553 0 550 1,936 854 0 0 0 5 40 0 0 15 52 574 109,353
Primary forest 728 10,102 1,916 20 2 625 664 702 17 3 10 7 1 23 64 7 0 4 0 13 199 42 15,149
Secondary forest 23,447 8,614 25,441 26 4 9,562 13,922 4,653 214 136 741 1 29 2 83 381 14 3 1 14 2 116 483 673 88,563 0 Plantation trees 0 9 23 4,372 19 4,422
Pine plantation 4 7 4 894 910 0 Other land with tree 3,379 2,891 16,849 42 14 46,754 41,613 36,895 1,201 467 1,109 6 375 86 2,856 7,498 260 76 26 204 23 734 1,859 2,302 167,518 cover Shrubland 2,870 1,405 11,766 210 89 13,702 26,769 26,286 443 53 34 5 62 12 1,125 4,645 96 7 39 27 13 302 520 554 91,033 0 Grassland 544 411 3,071 573 238 8,670 14,800 35,153 133 30 26 7 49 8 2,429 5,467 313 10 27 21 3 228 287 716 73,216 0 Pineapple 1 16 100 23 1,350 2,301 2,240 13,229 231 0 321 13 2,883 1,875 21 1 4 2 221 15 44 24,890
Rubber 48 52 593 0 0 6,435 4,292 4,520 36 1,725 78 38 6 2,190 2,159 18 11 0 6 1 128 57 258 22,651
Mixed Coconut 102 86 327 96 0 2,212 1,722 3,606 317 70 23 0 13 53 1,372 1,489 18 4 1 41 0 119 110 77 11,858
Oil palm 7 38 269 379 395 722 122 13 26 1 64 113 0 13 3 29 2,195
Banana 92 34 228 0 1,410 2,402 1,717 348 128 14 0 1,904 1 1,942 1,399 49 0 2 13 1 103 27 49 11,864 0 Sugarcane 82 59 1,327 88 21 9,868 16,904 23,044 410 507 48 4 550 23 34,675 10,312 1,693 37 84 450 24 1,127 458 831 102,625
Corn 133 168 1,986 534 252 15,130 23,761 37,084 1,664 445 76 7 395 149 9,843 18,202 1,399 361 54 247 29 1,161 538 1,292 114,912
Rice 74 154 675 156 39 3,357 4,753 9,023 166 111 35 43 22 4,099 3,750 14,305 24 20 92 0 361 707 228 42,194
Cassava 1 3 51 5 587 817 2,295 132 28 4 23 32 414 2,392 30 285 0 5 1 41 8 69 7,224 0 Built-up areas 3 4 65 1 1 266 625 1,064 23 12 6 0 8 2 237 265 70 9 1 1,093 13 496 19 81 4,364 Agri-industrial 4 3 21 0 1 119 276 240 56 1 2 29 3 52 119 2 2 0 10 95 40 7 29 1,110 establishment Road 22 12 86 29 8 343 577 870 98 17 10 1 13 2 408 315 113 3 0 206 1 887 11 26 4,060
River/Lake 9 87 133 3 533 561 1,038 16 1 3 2 2 183 293 173 1 13 21 3,467 33 6,572
TOTAL 2005 129,135 25,338 71,488 0 6,184 1,583 0 121,852 159,090 0 192,007 0 18,626 3,978 2,218 56 3,862 416 0 64,882 60,779 18,580 835 256 0 2,452 208 6,127 8,826 7,908 906,685 Secondary Plantation Pine Other land with tree LC2005 Mossy forest Primary forest forest trees plantation cover
LC2018 97,588 ha of mossy forests unchanged Mossy forest 97,588 1,186 6,553 0 550 between 2005 and 2018 Primary forest 728 10,102 1,916 20 2 625
Secondary forest 23,447 8,614 25,441 26 4 9,562 23,447 ha of mossy forest in 2005 became Plantation trees 0 9 23 4,372 19 secondary forest in 2018 Pine plantation 4 7 4 894
Other land with tree 3,379 2,891 16,849 42 14 46,754 16,849 ha of secondary forests in 2005 cover Shrubland 2,870 1,405 11,766 210 89 13,702 converted to other land with tree cover in 2018 Grassland 544 411 3,071 573 238 8,670
Pineapple 1 16 100 23 1,350 11,766 ha of secondary forest in 2005 Rubber 48 52 593 0 0 6,435 became shrubland in 2018 Mixed Coconut 102 86 327 96 0 2,212
Oil palm 7 38 269 379
Banana 92 34 228 0 1,410
Sugarcane 82 59 1,327 88 21 9,868
Corn 133 168 1,986 534 252 15,130
Rice 74 154 675 156 39 3,357
Cassava 1 3 51 5 587
Built-up areas 3 4 65 1 1 266 Agri-industrial 4 3 21 0 1 119 establishment Road 22 12 86 29 8 343
River/Lake 9 87 133 3 533
TOTAL 2005 129,135 25,338 71,488 0 6,184 1,583 0 121,852 Forest Carbon Stock Change Plantation Forest/Planted trees Natural Forest Plantation Forest/Planted trees Natural Forest Plantation Forest/Planted trees Natural Forest Difference2005-2018between Forestcover 2005 Forestcover 2018 Secondary Primary Mossy PlantationPine etc) Planted(Mangium/Gmelina Trees Secondary Primary Mossy Pine PlantationPine PlantationTrees Secondary Primary Mossy PlantationPine PlantedTrees LandCover Type ActivityArea
233,729 213,066 218,399
(15,331) 225,961
(12,896) 109,353 129,135
(10,188) (19,782)
(2,435) 17,075 71,488 25,338 88,563 15,149 (1,778) 7,768 5,333 1,568 6,200 4,422
(658)
910 forest (IPCC2006GL forest
Tier 1 EstimatedTier1 AG BiomassTropical for Table 4.7 for forest forest Tablefor 4.7
130 220 350 350 350 130 220 350 350 350 130 220 350 350 350 TotalEstimated AG
Biomass 80,654,291 74,573,018 75,664,299 (4,989,992)
79,086,451
(4,513,433) 25,020,873 45,197,403 30,997,086 38,273,724 1,567,840 1,091,281 (3,565,967) (6,923,679)
5,976,213 1,364,000 8,868,175 5,302,208 (476,559)
(391,077)
203,840 118,357 972,923 (85,483) Ratio of BG to to BG Ratioof AG biomass AG 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.27 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.27 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.27
TotalEstimated BG
25,322,347 23,764,644 24,168,418
(1,153,929)
24,742,247
12,203,299 11,468,922 10,333,906
(1,319,408) (1,869,393)
2,211,199 9,257,723 3,281,225 1,961,817 (176,327) (977,602)
(144,698) 580,101 403,774
504,680 359,982 (31,629)
75,421 43,792 (117,111) (535,775) (4,885,375) (8,793,072) 8,187,411 279,260.80 1,332,905 42,466,007 7,264,025 48,607,630 1,868,680.00 34,278,595.97 12,149,399.79 57,400,701.72 162,150
AG+BG biomass AG+BG
105,976,638
103,828,697 98,337,662 99,832,717 (5,491,035) (6,143,921)
2,147,941 1,495,055
(652,886) AG+BG carbon inAG+BG
(Carbon Factor
49,809,020 46,218,701 46,921,377 Estimated (2,887,643)
48,799,488
(2,580,787) forests 16,110,940 26,978,330 19,959,023 22,845,586
3,848,083 5,710,218 3,414,092
(306,856)
(251,814) 702,676
131,253 878,280 626,465 (55,042)
76,210 KEY FINDINGS 1. Natural forests - critical to the sustainability of ecosystem services - are under pressure. 2. Major losses are in four forest blocks. 3. Losses were mainly due natural forest degradation. 4. Deforestation occurred on almost 11,000 ha of natural forests that were converted to grasslands and agricultural lands. 5. Mosaic agroforests are increasing. 6. Regeneration of natural forests mainly occurred in areas that used to be shrublands, other land with tree cover, and grasslands. 7. Impacts of these land use changes on cultures and livelihoods are largely negative. 1. Natural forests are under pressure. 2. Major losses are in four forest blocks.
The most prominent losses are along the fringes of natural forests in: a) San Fernando, Valencia and Quezon (Mount Tangkulan) b) Malaybalay, Cabanglasan, Impasugong, Fortich, Malitbog (Northern Pantaron) c) Lantapan, Malaybalay and Baungon (Mount Kitanglad) d) Pangantucan and Valencia (Mount Kalatungan) 3. Losses were mainly due natural forest degradation. 4. Deforestation = natural forests converted to grasslands and agricultural lands
Causes of Deforestation (By Land Use)
grassland corn sugarcane rice rubber coconut banana oil palm road pineapple built up areas cassava pine & other plantation trees agri-industrial establishment
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 5. Mosaic agroforests are increasing. 6. Natural regeneration mainly occurred in areas that used to be shrublands, other land with tree cover, and grasslands. 7. Impacts of these land use changes on cultures and livelihoods are largely negative.
indebtedness Food insecurity
Livelihood insecurity Weakening of local social capital
Weakening of indigenous knowledge Loss of cultural Threatened water and practices agrobiodiversity security and soil health What are our next courses of action? 1. Link the forest agenda with water needs at community and landscape levels.
• Assess community water sources and link support for community water system improvements with community forest management. Upper Pulangi Watershed along Northern Pantaron has over 65 sitios. • Animate the Bukidnon Watershed Protection and Development Council and exchange experiences with other watershed alliances such as the Cagayan de Oro River Basin Council. What are our next courses of action? (cont.) 2. Update Comprehensive Land Use Plans (CLUP) and Forest Land Use Plans (FLUP) • Use the 2018 Bukidnon Land Cover Assessment as base map. Invest in regular land cover updates (ideally every 5 years). • Demarcate the forest line and provide incentives for community-led forest protection and assisted natural regeneration. • Consider slope characteristics when selecting sites for agriculture and infrastructure projects. Avoid promoting commercial agriculture & monocultures on precarious slopes. Stop new road incursions through forest blocks. • Promote sustainable farming practices and land uses in upland areas planted with corn (33,000 ha) and in grasslands (73,000 ha) What are our next courses of action? (cont’d) 3. Develop a scheme of payments for ecosystem services (PES) to communities in areas with potential for assisted natural forest regeneration.
• Prioritize sitios in or near secondary forests (88,000 ha) and shrublands (91,000 ha). • Provide “no-fire” incentives during summer especially to barangays along the forest lines. Link incentives with barangay development plans. • Engage the youth. Give them jobs in forest protection and ecosystem restoration. What are our next courses of action? 4. Support and promote Indigenous Community Conserved Areas (ICCA)
• Change the narrative about kaingin. Swidden systems, when managed in the right way, can allow forests to regenerate and provide farmers with a range of products that help secure food, diversify livelihoods and increase resilience.
• Create incentives that encourage organic farming practices. • Help safeguard the integrity of indigenous cultures. Daghang Salamat!