Rowena Soriaga Discussed ESSC's Key Findings in the 2005-2018 Land
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Interpreting the 2005-2018 Land Cover Change Figures of Bukidnon ALARM-GAUP Analysis Team (ER2) Rowena Soriaga, PES/REDD+ Adviser Kumiko Shimamoto-Kubo, Forest Carbon Specialist Pedro Walpole SJ, Social Impacts Adviser Presentation Outline ❖ Context ❖ Analysis Method ❖ Key Findings ❖ Recommendations Context Philippine National REDD-Plus Strategy (PNRPS) identified the primary driver of deforestation and forest degradation as: “uncertainty regarding the exact drivers and sites of deforestation and forest degradation, which limits ability to develop targeted and effective conservation interventions” How can we manage a resource if we don’t know… …where it is? (location) …how much of it exists? (quantification) …what causes changes? (drivers, - and +) B A S E L I N E 0 U P D A T E L O C A T I O N QUANTIFICATION Tree cover stock change between 2005 & 2018 Bukidnon Bukidnon LC 2005 LC 2018 Difference % GAIN/LOSS Land Cover Land Cover percentage percentage between of the LAND COVER (LC) 2005 2018 of the Total of the Total 2018 and Difference Area (ha) Area (ha) land area land area 2005 (Ha) over 2005 NATURAL FOREST 225,961 213,066 25% 24% -12,896 -6% Mossy forest 129,135 109,353 14% 12% -19,782 -15% Primary 25,338 15,149 3% 2% -10,188 -40% Secondary 71,488 88,563 8% 10% 17,075 24% PLANTATION FOREST 7,768 5,333 1% 1% -2,435 -31% Plantation trees 6,200 4,422 1% 0% -1,778 -29% Pine Plantation 1,568 910 0% 0% -658 -42% Other cover stock change between 2005 & 2018 Bukidnon Bukidnon LC 2005 LC 2018 Difference % GAIN/LOSS Land Cover Land Cover percentage percentage between of the LAND COVER (LC) 2005 2018 of the Total of the Total 2018 and Difference Area (ha) Area (ha) land area land area 2005 (Ha) over 2005 OTHER WOODED LAND 280,942 258,552 31% 28% -22,390 -8% Other Land With Tree Cover 121,852 167,518 13% 18% 45,666 37% Shrubland 159,090 91,033 18% 10% -68,056 -43% OTHER LAND 192,007 73,216 21% 8% -118,791 -62% Grassland 192,007 73,216 21% 8% -118,791 -62% PERENNIAL CROPLAND 29,155 73,459 3% 7% 44,304 152% Pineapple 18,626 24,890 2% 3% 6,264 34% Rubber 3,978 22,651 0% 2% 18,674 469% Banana 3,862 11,864 0% 1% 8,002 207% Mixed Coconut 2,218 11,858 0% 1% 9,640 435% Mango 416 0% 0% Oil palm 56 2,195 0% 0% 2,139 3,814% Other cover stock change between 2005 & 2018 Bukidnon Bukidnon LC 2005 LC 2018 Difference % GAIN/LOSS Land Cover Land Cover percentage percentage between of the LAND COVER (LC) 2005 2018 of the Total of the Total 2018 and Difference Area (ha) Area (ha) land area land area 2005 (Ha) over 2005 ANNUAL CROPLAND 145,332 266,955 16% 29% 121,623 84% Corn 60,779 114,912 7% 13% 54,132 89% Sugarcane 64,882 102,625 7% 11% 37,743 58% Rice 18,580 42,194 2% 5% 23,614 127% Cassava 835 7,224 0% 1% 6,389 765% High Value Crops 256 0% OTHER 25,520 16,106 3% 1% -9,415 -37% Built-up areas 2,452 4,364 0% 0% 1,912 78% Road 6,127 4,060 1% 0% -2,067 -34% Agri-industrial establishment 208 1,110 0% 0% 902 434% River/Lake 8,826 6,572 1% 1% -2,254 -26% No Data 7,908 1% TOTAL 906,685 906,685 Contingency Matrix to quantify change Secondary Plantation Pine Other land with tree High Value Agri-industrial LC2005 Mossy forest Primary forest Shrubland Grassland Pineapple Rubber Coconut Oil palm Banana Mango Sugarcane Corn Rice Cassava Built-up areas Road River/Lake No data TOTAL 2018 forest trees plantation cover crops establishment LC2018 Mossy forest 97,588 1,186 6,553 0 550 1,936 854 0 0 0 5 40 0 0 15 52 574 109,353 Primary forest 728 10,102 1,916 20 2 625 664 702 17 3 10 7 1 23 64 7 0 4 0 13 199 42 15,149 Secondary forest 23,447 8,614 25,441 26 4 9,562 13,922 4,653 214 136 741 1 29 2 83 381 14 3 1 14 2 116 483 673 88,563 0 Plantation trees 0 9 23 4,372 19 4,422 Pine plantation 4 7 4 894 910 0 Other land with tree 3,379 2,891 16,849 42 14 46,754 41,613 36,895 1,201 467 1,109 6 375 86 2,856 7,498 260 76 26 204 23 734 1,859 2,302 167,518 cover Shrubland 2,870 1,405 11,766 210 89 13,702 26,769 26,286 443 53 34 5 62 12 1,125 4,645 96 7 39 27 13 302 520 554 91,033 0 Grassland 544 411 3,071 573 238 8,670 14,800 35,153 133 30 26 7 49 8 2,429 5,467 313 10 27 21 3 228 287 716 73,216 0 Pineapple 1 16 100 23 1,350 2,301 2,240 13,229 231 0 321 13 2,883 1,875 21 1 4 2 221 15 44 24,890 Rubber 48 52 593 0 0 6,435 4,292 4,520 36 1,725 78 38 6 2,190 2,159 18 11 0 6 1 128 57 258 22,651 Mixed Coconut 102 86 327 96 0 2,212 1,722 3,606 317 70 23 0 13 53 1,372 1,489 18 4 1 41 0 119 110 77 11,858 Oil palm 7 38 269 379 395 722 122 13 26 1 64 113 0 13 3 29 2,195 Banana 92 34 228 0 1,410 2,402 1,717 348 128 14 0 1,904 1 1,942 1,399 49 0 2 13 1 103 27 49 11,864 0 Sugarcane 82 59 1,327 88 21 9,868 16,904 23,044 410 507 48 4 550 23 34,675 10,312 1,693 37 84 450 24 1,127 458 831 102,625 Corn 133 168 1,986 534 252 15,130 23,761 37,084 1,664 445 76 7 395 149 9,843 18,202 1,399 361 54 247 29 1,161 538 1,292 114,912 Rice 74 154 675 156 39 3,357 4,753 9,023 166 111 35 43 22 4,099 3,750 14,305 24 20 92 0 361 707 228 42,194 Cassava 1 3 51 5 587 817 2,295 132 28 4 23 32 414 2,392 30 285 0 5 1 41 8 69 7,224 0 Built-up areas 3 4 65 1 1 266 625 1,064 23 12 6 0 8 2 237 265 70 9 1 1,093 13 496 19 81 4,364 Agri-industrial 4 3 21 0 1 119 276 240 56 1 2 29 3 52 119 2 2 0 10 95 40 7 29 1,110 establishment Road 22 12 86 29 8 343 577 870 98 17 10 1 13 2 408 315 113 3 0 206 1 887 11 26 4,060 River/Lake 9 87 133 3 533 561 1,038 16 1 3 2 2 183 293 173 1 13 21 3,467 33 6,572 TOTAL 2005 129,135 25,338 71,488 0 6,184 1,583 0 121,852 159,090 0 192,007 0 18,626 3,978 2,218 56 3,862 416 0 64,882 60,779 18,580 835 256 0 2,452 208 6,127 8,826 7,908 906,685 Secondary Plantation Pine Other land with tree LC2005 Mossy forest Primary forest forest trees plantation cover LC2018 97,588 ha of mossy forests unchanged Mossy forest 97,588 1,186 6,553 0 550 between 2005 and 2018 Primary forest 728 10,102 1,916 20 2 625 Secondary forest 23,447 8,614 25,441 26 4 9,562 23,447 ha of mossy forest in 2005 became Plantation trees 0 9 23 4,372 19 secondary forest in 2018 Pine plantation 4 7 4 894 Other land with tree 3,379 2,891 16,849 42 14 46,754 16,849 ha of secondary forests in 2005 cover Shrubland 2,870 1,405 11,766 210 89 13,702 converted to other land with tree cover in 2018 Grassland 544 411 3,071 573 238 8,670 Pineapple 1 16 100 23 1,350 11,766 ha of secondary forest in 2005 Rubber 48 52 593 0 0 6,435 became shrubland in 2018 Mixed Coconut 102 86 327 96 0 2,212 Oil palm 7 38 269 379 Banana 92 34 228 0 1,410 Sugarcane 82 59 1,327 88 21 9,868 Corn 133 168 1,986 534 252 15,130 Rice 74 154 675 156 39 3,357 Cassava 1 3 51 5 587 Built-up areas 3 4 65 1 1 266 Agri-industrial 4 3 21 0 1 119 establishment Road 22 12 86 29 8 343 River/Lake 9 87 133 3 533 TOTAL 2005 129,135 25,338 71,488 0 6,184 1,583 0 121,852 Tier 1 Estimated AG Estimated Biomass for Tropical AG+BG carbon in forest (IPCC 2006GL Total Estimated AG Total Estimated BG Activity Area Ratio of BG to forests Land Cover Type Table 4.7 for forest Biomass Biomass AG+BG biomass <ha> AG biomass (Carbon Factor and 4.8 for <tonnes d.m> <tonnes d.m.> 0.47) plantations) <Ct> <tonnes d.m/ha> Forest cover 2018 218,399 75,664,299 24,168,418 99,832,717 46,921,377 Natural Forest 213,066 74,573,018 23,764,644 98,337,662 46,218,701 Mossy 109,353 350 38,273,724 0.27 10,333,906 48,607,630 22,845,586 Primary 15,149 350 5,302,208 0.37 1,961,817 7,264,025 3,414,092 Secondary 88,563 350 30,997,086 0.37 11,468,922 42,466,007 19,959,023 Plantation Forest/Planted trees 5,333 1,091,281 403,774 1,495,055 702,676 Planted Trees (Mangium/Gmelina etc) 4,422 220 972,923 0.37 359,982 1,332,905 626,465 Pine Plantation 910 130 118,357 0.37 43,792 162,150 76,210 Forest cover 2005 233,729 80,654,291 25,322,347 105,976,638 49,809,020 Natural Forest 225,961 79,086,451 24,742,247 103,828,697 48,799,488 Mossy 129,135 350 45,197,403 0.27 12,203,299 57,400,701.72 26,978,330 Primary 25,338 350 8,868,175 0.37 3,281,225 12,149,399.79 5,710,218 Secondary 71,488 350 25,020,873 0.37 9,257,723 34,278,595.97 16,110,940 Plantation Forest/Planted trees 7,768 1,567,840 580,101 2,147,941 1,009,532 Planted Trees 6,200 220 1,364,000 0.37 504,680 1,868,680.00 878,280 Pine Plantation 1,568 130 203,840 0.37 75,421 279,260.80 131,253 Difference between 2005-2018 (15,331) (4,989,992) (1,153,929) (6,143,921) (2,887,643) Natural Forest (12,896) (4,513,433) (977,602) (5,491,035) (2,580,787) Mossy (19,782) 350 (6,923,679) 0.27 (1,869,393) (8,793,072) (4,132,744) Primary (10,188) 350 (3,565,967) 0.37 (1,319,408) (4,885,375) (2,296,126) Secondary 17,075 350 5,976,213 0.37 2,211,199 8,187,411 3,848,083 Plantation Forest/Planted trees (2,435) (476,559) (176,327) (652,886) (306,856) Change Forest Carbon Stock Plantation Trees (1,778) 220 (391,077) 0.37 (144,698) (535,775) (251,814) Pine Plantation (658) 130 (85,483) 0.37 (31,629) (117,111) (55,042) KEY FINDINGS 1.