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The Sequester's Mechanics and Adverse Effects on National And Economic Policy Program National Security Program Economic Policy Project Foreign Policy Project Indefensible: The Sequester’s Mechanics and Adverse Effects on National and Economic Security TASK FORCE ON DEFENSE BUDGET AND STRATEGY June 2012 DISCLAIMER This report is the product of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program and National Security Program. The findings and recommendations expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Bipartisan Policy Center, its founders, or its board of directors. Indefensible: The Sequester’s Mechanics and Adverse Effects on National and Economic Security 1 Economic Policy Program & National Security Program CO-CHAIRS Senator Pete Domenici Secretary Dan Glickman General (ret.) James Jones Former Chairman, U.S. Senate Former U.S. Agriculture Secretary; Former National Security Advisor; Budget Committee; Co-Chair, Former Chairman, U.S. House Former Commander, U.S. European BPC’s Debt Reduction Task Force; Select Intelligence Committee; Command; Senior Fellow, BPC Senior Fellow, BPC Senior Fellow, BPC MEMBERS Dr. Graham Allison Rear Admiral (ret.) David Mercer Dr. Abram Shulsky Director of Belfer Center, Kennedy Former Commander, Navy Region Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute School of Government, Harvard Europe, Africa, Southwest Asia General (ret.) Charles Wald University Dr. Michael O’Hanlon Former Deputy Commander, General (ret.) Peter Chiarelli Senior Fellow, 21st Century Defense U.S. European Command Former Vice Chief of Staff, U.S. Army Initiative, Brookings Institution Dr. Dov Zakheim Admiral (ret.) Gregory Johnson Ross Perot, Jr. Former Under Secretary of Former Commander, Chairman of the Board, Perot Systems Defense (Comptroller) U.S. Naval Forces, Europe Major General (ret.) Arnold Punaro General (ret.) George Joulwan Senior Fellow, Defense Business Former Commander, Board; Former Staff Director, U.S. U.S. European Command Senate Armed Services Committee BPC TASK FORCE STAFF Steve Bell Loren Adler Marissa McCauley Senior Director of Economic Policy Policy Analyst, Economic Policy Project Operations Coordinator Dr. Michael Makovsky Shai Akabas Jonathan Ruhe Foreign Policy Director Policy Analyst, Economic Policy Project Senior Policy Analyst, Foreign Policy Project Blaise Misztal Ashton Kunkle Associate Foreign Policy Director Administrative Assistant Economic Policy Program National Security Program Economic Policy Project Foreign Policy Project ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Special thanks to Task Force Member Gen. Arnold Punaro and Micah Edmond of The Punaro Group for their help with the in-depth technical analysis that was conducted for this paper; former Acting Director of CBO Barry Anderson, former Staff Director of the Senate Budget Committee Dr. Bill Hoagland, Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research at the Committee for Economic Development Dr. Joe Minarik, and former CBO and OMB Director Dr. Alice Rivlin for their vast experience and knowledge of the federal budget; and George Washington University’s Associate Dean for Government Procurement Law Dan Gordon for his generous assistance on the intricacies of procurement law. We would also like to acknowledge the tremendous assistance of BPC’s interns: Kevin McGrath, Rebecca Morris, Chris Hellie and Caitlyn Turgeon. Additional input we would like to acknowledge was provided by Tom Gramaglia. ABOUT BPC Founded in 2007 by former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker, Tom Daschle, Bob Dole and George Mitchell, Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) is a non-profit organization that drives principled solutions through rigorous analysis, reasoned negotiation and respectful dialogue. With projects in multiple issue areas, BPC combines politically balanced policymaking with strong, proactive advocacy and outreach. Indefensible: The Sequester’s Mechanics and Adverse Effects on National and Economic Security 3 Letter from the Co-Chairs This is a critical moment for U.S. defense strategy. The wars With business leaders already tightening their belts, staving in Iraq and Afghanistan that defined the last decade are off the worst of the consequences requires taking action winding down as persistent and new threats compete for now. We hope that this report provides policymakers and our attention. Meanwhile, budgetary pressure has already the public with the information and analysis to understand forced cuts to defense spending, and additional automatic the intensifying impact that the sequester is having on our reductions, known as the sequester, will go into effect in economy, still fragile as it recovers from recession, and its 2013. These debates cannot be undertaken separately. We pending fallout for our military, as it seeks to recapitalize are proud to chair this new initiative of the Bipartisan Policy from a decade of war and modernize to execute a new Center (BPC)—a joint effort of its Economic and Foreign defense strategy. Policy Projects—to provide a blueprint for a realistic and Although imposition of the sequester will have very affordable 21st century national security strategy. significant adverse consequences on our national security, This white paper is the first product of our effort. It offers this does not mean that critically needed reforms to the DoD a detailed analysis of the mechanics and effects of the budget and business models should not be undertaken. sequester, primarily on defense. After reviewing the Specifically, the areas of manpower costs and acquisition evidence, we have concluded that the indiscriminate and systems need urgent attention and reform in order for the irrational application of sequester cuts in 2013 will have defense budgets of the future to better address our national adverse impacts on our military capabilities and readiness security needs. Our Task Force on Defense Budget and and economic vibrancy without significantly improving our Strategy will issue a follow-up report over the next few fiscal situation. In short, the sequester is indefensible. months, in which we will propose a defense strategy and a series of reforms that will lead to a more efficient defense We know that in Washington any mention of spending budget that is consistent with evolving national security and cuts elicits doom and gloom pronouncements. Every fiscal imperatives. government department carefully guards its budget, and each constituency and member of Congress has government programs that are dear to their heart. Each Sincerely, is quick to invoke worst-case scenarios to ward off any prospective cuts. This time is different. The sequester is Senator Pete Domenici Secretary Dan Glickman not just any spending cut. The primary issue is not the size of its cuts but the nonsensical manner in which they are to be executed. General (ret.) James Jones Economic Policy Program National Security Program Economic Policy Project Foreign Policy Project Indefensible: The Sequester’s Mechanics and Adverse Effects on National and Economic Security 5 Table of Contents Introduction ................................................... 7 Chapter 1: The Budget: Structure, Trends & Pressures .................................... 10 Chapter 2: Sequester: Mechanics and Implementation ................................... 15 Mechanics ..................................................... 15 Implementation .................................................. 16 Chapter 3: The Sequester’s Impact ................................. 22 The Sequester as Defense Policy ...................................... 22 The Sequester as Economic Policy ..................................... 25 The Sequester as Domestic Policy ...................................... 27 The Sequester as Fiscal Policy ........................................ 28 Chapter 4: Recommendations ..................................... 32 Endnotes ..................................................... 35 Economic Policy Program National Security Program Economic Policy Project Foreign Policy Project Preventing Violent Radicalization in America 7 Introduction Our nation faces a serious fiscal challenge, which requires – reduce U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by roughly making difficult budgetary decisions. Without action, half a percentage point in 2013 and cause more than one growing deficits and debt will erode our prosperity and million jobs to be lost over the course of two years. leadership role in the world. Yet, the current method for n Although scheduled to go into effect on January 2, 2013, tackling this problem – automatic spending cuts, totaling the economic effects of the sequester will be felt well more than $1 trillion over a nine-year period, set to go into beforehand. Spurred by uncertainty about the sequester’s effect on January 2, 2013 – is indefensible. The sequester, implementation and effects, department heads will slow as these cuts are known, is neither an effective nor rational spending, and business leaders have already started to form of deficit reduction. It will have serious repercussions curtail hiring in preparation for these arbitrary cuts. on our national security, economic health, and public safety, while only minimally affecting our national debt. n There is significant ambiguity as to what constitutes Furthermore, the adverse effects caused by anticipation of “program, project, and activity.” The more granular the the sequester have already begun. level at which the cuts occur, the less discretion there is for agencies to eliminate inefficient programs and fund Based on a plausible set of assumptions, our analysis those that
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