Issue 63, 4th Quarter 2011 FUTURE OF DEFENSE CYBER STRATEGY 2011 ESSAY CONTEST WINNERS JOINT FORCE QUARTERLY Inside Issue 63, 4th Quarter 2011 Editor Col William T. Eliason, USAF (Ret.), Ph.D. JFQ Dialogue Executive Editor Jeffrey D. Smotherman, Ph.D. Supervisory Editor George C. Maerz Letters to the Editor 2 Production Supervisor Martin J. Peters, Jr. In Memoriam: How General John Shalikashvili “Paid It Forward” to Senior Copy Editor Calvin B. Kelley 4 500,000 Others By Andrew Marble Book Review Editor Lisa M. Yambrick Visual Design Editor Tara J. Parekh Forum Copy Editor/Office Manager John J. Church, D.M.A Internet Publications Editor Joanna E. Seich Executive Summary 6 Design Jon Raedeke, Jamie Harvey, Chris Dunham, U.S. Government Printing Office 8 An Interview with Norton A. Schwartz The Looming Crisis in Defense Planning By Paul K. Davis and Printed in St. Louis, Missouri 13 Peter A. Wilson by 21 Thoughts on Force Design in an Era of Shrinking Defense Budgets By Douglas A. Macgregor NDU Press is the National Defense University’s Linking Military Service Budgets to Commander Priorities cross-component, professional military and 30 academic publishing house. It publishes books, By Mark A. Gallagher and M. Kent Taylor journals, policy briefs, occasional papers, monographs, and special reports on national 38 Harnessing America’s Power: A U.S. National Security Structure for the security strategy, defense policy, interagency 21st Century By Peter C. Phillips and Charles S. Corcoran cooperation, national military strategy, regional security affairs, and global strategic problems. 47 The Limits of Tailored Deterrence By Sean P. Larkin This is the official U.S. Department of Defense Special Feature edition of JFQ. Any copyrighted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or extracted without Estonia: Cyber Window into the Future of NATO By Häly Laasme permission of the copyright proprietors. Joint 58 Force Quarterly should be acknowledged whenever Stuxnet and Strategy: A Special Operation in Cyberspace? By Lukas Milevski material is quoted from or based on its content. 64 Why Iran Didn’t Admit Stuxnet Was an Attack By Gary D. Brown 70 COMMUNICATIONS Please visit NDU Press and Joint Force Essay Contests Quarterly online at ndupress.ndu.edu for more Winners of the 2011 Writing Competitions on upcoming issues, an electronic archive of 74 JFQ articles, and access to many other useful 76 Enduring Attraction: America’s Dependence On and Need to Secure Its NDU Press publications. Constructive com- Supply of Permanent Magnets By Justin C. Davey ments and contributions are important to us. Please direct editorial communications to the The Empire’s Newest New Clothes: Overrating China By Steve Coonen 84 link on the NDU Press Web site or write to: Editor, Joint Force Quarterly U.S.-China Relations: No Need to Fight By Daniel S. Larsen 92 National Defense University Press 260 Fifth Avenue, S.W. (Building 64, Room 2504) Commentary Fort Lesley J. McNair Washington, DC 20319 Religious Leader Engagement in Southern Afghanistan By Alexs Thompson 95 Telephone: (202) 685-4220/DSN 325 FAX: (202) 685-4219/DSN 325 102 Vietnam and Iraq: Learning from the Past? By Brent C. Bankus and Email: [email protected] James Kievit JFQ online: ndupress.ndu.edu 4th Quarter, October 2011 ISSN 1070-0692 Features PUBLISHER GEN Martin E. Dempsey, USA Read, Think, Write: Keys to 21st-century Security Leadership 110 PRESIDENT, NDU By James G. Stavridis VADM Ann E. Rondeau, USN Understanding Strategic Thinking and Developing Strategic Thinkers 113 ADVISORY COMMITTEE By Douglas E. Waters Maj Gen Joseph D. Brown IV, USAF Industrial College of the Armed Forces Col Michael F. Belcher, USMC Marine Corps War College Pulling Back the Curtain: Developing Strategic Thinkers at ICAF LTG Robert L. Caslen, Jr., USA U.S. Army Command and 120 General Staff College By Mark McGuire RADM John N. Christenson, USN Naval War College The Joint Officer: A Professional Specialist By Scott A. Carpenter Brig Gen Stephen T. Denker, USAF Air Command and Staff College 125 LtGen George J. Flynn, USMC The Joint Staff Transforming the Civil Reserve Air Fleet By Michael J. Grismer, Jr. VADM William E. Gortney, USN The Joint Staff 132 Brig Gen Scott M. Hanson, USAF Air War College RADM Douglas J. McAneny, USN National War College Recall MG Gregg F. Martin, USA U.S. Army War College Col Royal P. Mortenson, USMC Marine Corps Command and 140 Operation Enduring Freedom X: CJTF–82 and the Future of COIN Staff College By R.D. Hooker, Jr. John A. Nagl Center for a New American Security VADM Daniel T. Oliver, USN (Ret.) Naval Postgraduate School ADM James G. Stavridis, USN U.S. European Command Book Reviews Maj Gen (select) Joseph S. Ward, Jr., USAF Joint Forces Staff College Clausewitz Reconsidered 148 EDITORIAL BOARD Reviewed by Douglas Peifer Richard K. Betts Columbia University Stephen D. Chiabotti School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Beer, Bacon and Bullets 149 Eliot A. Cohen The Johns Hopkins University Reviewed by Tiffany G. Petros COL Joseph J. Collins, USA (Ret.) National War College Mark J. Conversino Air War College 150 Dangerous Times? Aaron L. Friedberg Princeton University Reviewed by Francis P. Sempa Col Thomas C. Greenwood, USMC (Ret.) Institute for Defense Analyses Douglas N. Hime Naval War College Cyberdeterrence and Cyberwar and Cyber War Mark H. Jacobsen Marine Corps Command and Staff College 151 Daniel T. Kuehl Information Resources Management College Review essay by Brian R. Salmans Col Jerome M. Lynes, USMC (Ret.) The Joint Staff Thomas L. McNaugher The RAND Corporation Joint Doctrine Kathleen Mahoney-Norris Air Command and Staff College Col Mark Pizzo, USMC (Ret.) National War College 153 Command Relationships By George E. Katsos James A. Schear Office of the Secretary of Defense Col Troy S. Thomas, USAF The Joint Staff 156 Improving Joint Fires for Special Operations: A Mandate for the Joint Force LtGen Bernard E. Trainor, USMC (Ret.) Fires Coordinator By Michael Wastila CONTRIBUTIONS Joint Force Quarterly welcomes submission of scholarly, independent research from members of the Armed Forces, security policymakers and shapers, defense analysts, academic specialists, and civilians from the United States and abroad. Submit articles for consideration to the address on the opposite page or by email to [email protected] “Attention A&R Editor” in the subject line. For further information, see the guidelines on the NDU Press Web site at ndupress.ndu.edu. ABOUT THE COVERS Joint Force Quarterly is published by the National Defense University Cover: F−15E Strike Eagle is refueled by KC−10A Extender during Press for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. JFQ is the Chairman’s flagship joint military and security studies journal Operation Odyssey Dawn (Tyler Placie/U.S. Air Force). Table of designed to inform members of the U.S. Armed Forces, allies, and other partners on joint and integrated operations; national security contents (left to right): Soldiers navigate rice paddies and cornfields policy and strategy; efforts to combat terrorism; homeland security; on combat patrol in Alingar District, Afghanistan (Ryan Crane/U.S. and developments in training and joint professional military education to transform America’s military and security apparatus to Air Force); Sailor mans primary flight control system during flight meet tomorrow’s challenges better while protecting freedom today. operations aboard USS Ronald Reagan in Indian Ocean (Shawn J. Stewart/U.S. Navy); Marines return Afghan boy to his village aboard The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the V−22 Osprey after treatment at Camp Bastion medical center (Charles contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of T. Mabry II/U.S. Marine Corps); and Airman prepares to swap engine the Department of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. on KC−135R Stratotanker (Ken Johnson/U.S. Air Force). ndupress.ndu.edu LETTERS To the Editor— In “Who Is a Member of the expertise” is, and how one would know when ■■ achieving and maintaining courage, Military Profession?” (JFQ 62, 3d Quarter the Army NCO corps (or any other profes- candor, competence, commitment, and 2011), Colonel Matthew Moten, USA, brings sional enlisted force) has achieved specialized compassion. up some valuable points in his discussion expertise, and by whose standards. Is there of the professionalization of career enlisted an established peak or defined scale by which If this is what is expected from the NCO Servicemembers, but it would be useful to one measures individual or group progress, corps, one would have to measure against know his data points. His final arguments other than to say, “You are progressing”? It these tasks to determine when expertise has are directed at the noncommissioned officer seems that comment would be nebulous at been achieved. Of course, if the problem is (NCO) corps (not petty officers), so I would best considering that Colonel Moten never that these are not the correct 10 functions of like to know if his data are based on his seems to point out anything where the Army the NCO Support channel, that is an entirely experiences across the Services, or mainly NCO corps lacks specialized expertise. Nor different discussion, which is not addressed in based on his observations and study within his does he contrast how other groups have Colonel Moten’s article. own branch. mastered specialized expertise over the I believe recent developments in the Though observant of and an occasional NCO corps. Army NCOs draw their skills, Army NCO corps have mostly negated the researcher of other Services’ use of their pro- knowledge, and attitudes from policies that remainder of his argument. We recently fessional enlisted forces, I speak only about lay out their roles and responsibilities.