Litterature Review

Long term optimization of energy supply and demand in Vietnam with special reference to the potential of renewable energy Von der Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg – Fachbereich 4 / Wirtschafts- und Rechwissenschaften – Genehmigte Dissertation Zur Erlangung des Grades eines Doktors der Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Dr. rer. pol) vorgelegt von Quoc Khanh Nguyen aus Hanoi, Vietnam Referent: Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Pfaffenberger Korreferent: Prof. Dr. Heinz Welsch Tag der Disputation: 31. Januar, 2005 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank first my academic supervisor, Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Pfaffenberger – Director of the Bremer Energie Institut and Professor at International University of Bremen for giving me an opportunity to work at the institute, for his invaluable guidance and for inspiring suggestions. I would like to express my kind thanks to my second supervisor, Prof. Dr. Heinz Welsch – Director of the Institute of Economics – University of Oldenburg for intemediately accepting to co-supervise my thesis, despite his various other obligations. Many thanks to all colleagues at the Bremer Energie Institut for their professional guidance and for an excellent working environment. I am very thankful to Dr. Michael Brower from Truewind for data on wind, Institute of Energy especially MSc. Nguyen Duc Song for invaluable various data supply, Dr. Jürgen Gabriel from Bremer Energie Institute, Jennifer Brown from University of Oldenburg for proofreading of my thesis. Finally, I wish to give the greatest thanks to my wife and best friend, Hang, who has put up with me all the good and bad times, to my parents and my family for their enormous support and love. This work would not have been finished without their constant encouragement. Table of content v Table of content Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1 Chapter I Socio-economic and energy situation in Vietnam............................................................5 1.1 General overview ..................................................................................................................................5 1.2 Socio-economic situation .....................................................................................................................5 1.3 Energy situation.....................................................................................................................................8 1.3.1 Primary energy production........................................................................................................8 1.3.2 Energy import and export activities .........................................................................................8 1.3.3 Primary consumption.................................................................................................................9 1.3.4 Final energy consumption.........................................................................................................9 1.3.5 Greenhouse gas emissions.......................................................................................................11 1.4 Challenges to the energy sector in Vietnam and proposal ..............................................................12 Chapter II Literature review ..................................................................................................................13 2.1 Review of energy planning models...................................................................................................13 2.1.1 Energy information systems...................................................................................................14 2.1.2 Marco economic models ........................................................................................................14 2.1.3 Energy demand models..........................................................................................................15 2.1.4 Modular packages ...................................................................................................................15 2.1.5 Integrated models....................................................................................................................16 2.1.6 Energy supply models ............................................................................................................18 2.2 The MARKAL model ........................................................................................................................19 2.2.1 Structure of MARKAL ..........................................................................................................19 2.2.2 Input and output of MARKAL..............................................................................................24 2.2.3 Interface of MARKAL...........................................................................................................26 2.2.4 Renewable energies in MARKAL........................................................................................27 2.3 Review of similar studies....................................................................................................................28 2.4 Review of related studies conducted for Vietnam ...........................................................................29 2.5 Adopted methodology ........................................................................................................................30 Chapter III Renewable resource assessment........................................................................................31 3.1 Selection of renewable energy forms and related exploited technologies.....................................31 3.2 Introduction to selected renewable energies and the related technologies ....................................31 3.2.1 Wind energy ............................................................................................................................31 3.2.2 Solar energy .............................................................................................................................32 3.2.3 Biomass....................................................................................................................................33 Table of content vi 3.2.4 Biogas.......................................................................................................................................33 3.2.5 Hydro energy...........................................................................................................................34 3.2.6 Geothermal energy..................................................................................................................34 3.3 Assessment of renewable energy resources in Vietnam .................................................................34 3.3.1 Definition of potentials ...........................................................................................................34 3.3.2 Wind resource assessment......................................................................................................35 3.3.2.1 Assessment of the technical potential for grid connected wind turbines .......35 3.3.2.2 Estimation of the potential of small wind turbines................................................42 3.3.2.3 Estimation of the economic potential of large grid-connected wind turbines ....44 3.3.2.4 Prospect for wind energy .........................................................................................45 3.3.3 Solar resource assessme..........................................................................................................45 3.3.3.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................45 3.3.3.2 Calculation of the technical potential......................................................................46 3.3.3.3 Economics of integrated solar photovoltaics .........................................................48 3.3.3.4 Prospects for solar photovoltaics.............................................................................48 3.3.4 Biomass resource assessment ................................................................................................49 3.3.4.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................49 3.3.4.2 Fuel wood resource assessment...............................................................................50 3.3.4.3 Agricultural residue resource assessment...............................................................53 3.3.4.4 Review of current biomass energy technologies in Vietnam...............................54 3.3.4.5 Biomass energy technologies - prospects for improvements...............................55 3.3.4.6 Prospects for new technologies ...............................................................................55 3.3.5 Biogas resource assessment ...................................................................................................56 3.3.5.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................56 3.3.5.2 Biogas potential from animal based sources..........................................................56 3.3.5.3 Current biogas technologies in Vietnam ................................................................57 3.3.5.4 Biogas development activities in Vietnam.............................................................58

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