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Organización Soriana José Cebeira | Sr

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Organización Soriana José Cebeira | Sr Organización Soriana José Cebeira | Sr. Analyst Retailing Historical News [email protected] Ext. 1394 Last updated on september 11, 2019 Jerónimo Cobián | Jr. Analyst [email protected] SORIANA (Sell, PT P$24.00) Actinver: (55) 1103 6600 Downgrading to sell; a better perspective for the mid- term, but not enough to support the current valuation We are increasing our PT from P$21.00 to P$P24.00 due to a better-expected perspective in the coming five years. However, as a result of the limited potential return, we are downgrading our recommendation to SELL. The current valuation implies a 6.0x EV/EBITDA 2019E multiple. It is crucial to bear in mind that the company continues to deliver weak figures vs. the industry; the 2020 growth will be boosted mainly due to a low comparable base. We are forecasting a 6.1% sales CAGR from 2018-2024, mainly due to the low comparison base in 2018 and a better perspective for 2020 as a result of the full implementation of the social programs of the new administration. We are also confident that the profitability will increase as a result of the closure of some stores that were not reaching the company’s targets. As a result of the recent closures, we are forecasting improvements in the gross margin from 22% to 23% and EBIT margin (EX-IFRS16 effect) from 5.3% to 6.0%. With our new expectations, the company’s leverage should be reduced at a faster pace, towards a 1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA ratio in 2021 (ex-IFRS16) vs. the current 1.7x (ex-IFRS16), corresponding to the 2Q19. July 29, 2019 SORIANA (HOLD, PT P$21.0) 2Q19 Results - Limited Improvements Continue The company posted weak top-line figures with sales growing 2.0% YoY and SSS 2.4% YoY, both below the industry, and still reflecting a marginal retreat in sales floor under the company’s restructuring. Soriana continues to report some improvements in at the EBITDA margin after closing a number of non-profitable stores and executing a tight expense-control program. On a comparable basis (ex- IFRS), EBITDA increased 3% YoY, and margin achieved a 10 bps expansion to reach 7.3%. After a weak result in the 2Q19, we are reducing our PT from P$26.0 to P$ 21, while Disclaimer: https://goo.gl/6b8m3o www.actinverresearch.com our recommendation continues unchanged in HOLD. Total Sales, grew 2% YoY and SSS increased 2.4% YoY, boosted by “Julio Regalado” campaign. The company has closed 15 stores in the past twelve months with the purpose to increase the profitability, and we start to see some light in this. At the EBITDA level the company reported a 10% YoY increase, yet most of it was due to the IFR16 effect. Margin was up 50 bp at 7.7% on the back of the accounting changes, but also as strong expenses contention was clearer this quarter. Comparable figures (Excluding IFRS16) show EBITDA increasing 3% with a margin of 7.3%, still a 10 bps expansion. Net income recorded an 11% YoY decline, as a result higher financial expenses (P$862m vs. P$548m). In comparable basis, net profit should´ve increased 20% YoY. Finally, tax rate was lower, 33% vs. 34% from last year’s same period. April 29, 2019 SORIANA (SELL, PT P$32.0) Neutral Report : Operating Weakness Continues The company continues to report weak figures, as total sales increased only 0.7% YoY; it’s true the company has closed 16 stores with the purpose to increase the profitability in the last 12 months. Soriana was able to report a 60 bps expansion at the gross margin, this is a result of the positive strategy of closing some of its non- profitable stores. At the EBITDA level the company reported a 10.6% increase and an 80 bps margin expansion but the result was due to the implementation of the IFRS 16, without this effect the company EBITDA would have been a 2.7% decline and a 20 bps contraction at the margin to end at 6.9%. The company’s net financial expenses increased 54% due to the additional costs related to the IFRS-16, without this effect the financial cost should be almost the same as the last year. The company’s net income reported a 9.7% declined as a result of weak operating results and a negative effect from the IFRS-16 in the financial expenses. April 12, 2019 Retail 1Q19 Previews: Expecting Mixed Results We expect a mixed 1Q19 earnings season for the Retail and Other Consumption Industry. 2 Disclaimer: https://goo.gl/6b8m3o www.actinverresearch.com Positive Reports: Among the reports that we believe could be outstanding or above consensus' expectations in this season are CHEDRAUI, LACOMER, LIVERPOOL, and ELEKTRA. Neutral Reports: Due to the slow performance of the economy during the quarter, we forecast that ALSEA, WALMEX, GSANBORNS, and LAB will post neutral results. Negative Reports: We forecast that SORIANA will be the only weak report of the sector in the 1Q19 earnings season. Full report here April 2, 2019 SORIANA (SELL PT P$32.0) Announces a strategic alliance with Payback program of American Express Soriana announces a strategic alliance of its loyalty program “Soriana Rewards” with Payback, a subsidiary of American Express. The new program will benefit more than 8.8 million customers and the already enrolled customers in the Payback program. It is important to mention that the “Soriana Rewards” program was introduced in 2001 to offer the clients the possibility to accumulate points and redeem them for consumable products. SORIANA (SELL, PT P$32.0) Announces the beginning of operations of its 4th wind farm Soriana announces the beginning of operations of the fourth wind farm “Vicente Guerrero” in the municipality of Güémez, Tamaulipas, in conjunction with GEMEX, a Mexican company specialized in renewable energy. With this new operation, Soriana consolidates its partnership in 4 wind farms, which represented an investment of US$184m for the company. The new park has around 79 hectares, with 33 wind turbines, which represents an estimated annual generation 454 GWH. The energy generated by this park will supply 313 additional business units, to reach a total of 794 units, between distribution centers, stores, and offices. We regard this news as positive, as it is in-line with the company’s sustainability policy. February 25, 2019 3 Disclaimer: https://goo.gl/6b8m3o www.actinverresearch.com SORIANA (SELL, PT P$32.0) Negative Report, the company strategy continue with significant issues. We have seen a negative performance in sales as the company was barely able to report a 0.3% SSS and a 0.1% decline in TS. Management cites logistics issues remain as the key factor behind this, following the change of systems early in 2018. Company EBITDA continue to be affected by different fronts, although Soriana closed 11 stores during the year that should help company’s profitability going forward. It is important to highlight, the gross margin suffered a negative impact due to the alterations in its logistic system as a consequence of the changes made in the technological platform also the operating income was impacted by higher energy cost despite the company made a significant efforts to reduce the kilowatt consumption. As a result the company suffered a 130 bps contraction at the EBITDA to end at 7.9% and 13.4% decline. The financial expenses made a positive performance as were able to reduce its expenses despite higher rates over the year with a 3% reduction. Soriana Net Debt reduced 1.2% YoY and 17% QoQ Net income reported a declined at double digit over the last year due to two main effects: Larger losses from JV’s (P$148m vs. P$20m) and a higher Tax rate (36% vs. 33%). January 24, 2019 Supermarkets: Industry Update / 4Q18 Previews Expecting Strong Figures for the Next 3 years Upgrading Chedraui to BUY, while Walmart, La Comer and Soriana ratings remain unchanged at BUY, BUY and SELL, respectively. Currently the Mexican market offers significant discount vs. its last 6 month valuation. It is important to notice that overall, we believe consumption will be benefited by the new administration that will specially focused in the South part of the country. Government spending in social programs and infrastructure projects are the main drivers for our consumption optimism, at least for the next 3 years. The new administration goals are focused in increasing the purchasing power of the majority of Mexicans, through better wages & employee conditions all across the country. We believe the new administration will be able to benefit the low social spectrum increasing its 4 Disclaimer: https://goo.gl/6b8m3o www.actinverresearch.com purchasing power during the next 3 years. 4Q18 Previews: An Expected Mixed Season at the Top-Line, but a Weak Performance in EPS due to Normalized Tax Rates. Our estimates for 4Q18 earnings results show a notable deceleration at the top-line level due to a tough comparison base. It is important to mention at for EPS, we expect negative figures with the exception of Chedraui and Walmex. December 11, 2018 SORIANA (SELL; PT P$32.0) Concludes its 2018 store opening plan The company informed it has concluded its 2018 store opening and remodeling plan. Soriana opened two stores throughout the year, one in Los Cabos and one in Mexico City. A further two units were re-opened after completing an intense remodeling; these refurbished stores are located in the State of Mexico and Chihuahua. Regarding the home improvement format, Sodimac (which will not be consolidated as it is a 50/50 venture with Falabella), the company has a couple stores operating already in the northern region of the State of Mexico, and another one is expected to open before year end in the State of Morelos.
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