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Equity Research Me Xico Equity Research Me xico Quarterly Report July 29, 2020 SORIANA www.banorte.com Impacted by rents relief and “Julio Regalado” @analisis_fundam . Soriana reported below expectations, due to 2 months of rents relief Consumer and Telecom granted to its tenants in the real estate business (1.8% sales; 17% of Valentín Mendoza EBITDA), as well as drops in "Julio Regalado" campaign Senior Strategist, Equity [email protected] . 5 stores closed during the quarter of those that were still pending Juan Barbier under the conditions imposed by COFECE. 3Q20 will reflect a similar Analyst impact from reliefs and weakness in its summer campaign [email protected] . We trimmed our estimates, after incorporating these results and assuming a challenging 2H20. We are lowering our PT2020 to $23.00 HOLD (FV/EBITDA 2021E of 5.2x equal to current valuation). HOLD Current Price $18.05 PT 2020 $23.00 Dividend 2020e Dividend Yield (%) Pressures in profitability that could continue. In June, Soriana recognized Upside Potential 27.4% half the impact on 2 months of rents reliefs granted to its tenants (the remaining Max – Mín LTM ($) 27.50 – 16.14 Market Cap (US$m) 1,453.6 will be registered in July). Its “Julio Regalado” campaign, which kicked-off in Shares Outstanding (m) 1,800 June, declined a high-single-digit –due to challenging macroeconomic Float 13.8% Daily Turnover US$m 2.0 environment-. And also carried out the closure of 5 pending stores related to its Valuation metrics TTM FV/EBITDA 5.2x divestment program required by COFECE. That said, sales grew 1.4% y/y to P/E 10.1x MXN 39.637 billion, on the back of a 2.6% advance in SSS, offsetting a 1.0% y/y contraction in sales floor. Meanwhile, gross margin was pressured 60bps to Relative performance to Mexbol 21.2%, due to falling rents income (though its 1.8% contribution to revenues is LTM marginal, account for about 17% of EBITDA) and a less favorable mix. Thus, 40% 30% despite a remarkable expense control (0.7% y/y), EBITDA fell 5.2% y/y to 20% MXN 2.853 billion and corresponding margin eroded 50bps to 7.2%. Net 10% 0% income grew 3.0% y/y, thanks to a 17.8% decrease in the CFC in regard of -10% lower interest expenses (reflecting the q/q decline in leverage from 2.8x to 2.6x -20% -30% after the sequential reduction of MXN 2.580 billion in debt) and FX gains, as jul.-19Jul.-19 Oct.oct.-19-19 Jan.ene.-20-20 Apr.abr.-20-20 Jul.jul.-20-20 MEXBOL SORIANAB well as for lower losses in Soriban and Sodimac. Financial Statements Valuation and Financial metrics 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Rev enue 153,475 155,744 156,315 159,237 FV/EBITDA 4.9x 5.2x 5.2x 4.4x Operating Income 8,068 9,213 8,376 9,071 P/E 9.0x 10.0x 11.8x 9.8x EBITDA 10,884 12,372 11,482 12,113 P/BV 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x EBITDA Margin 7.1% 7.9% 7.3% 7.6% Net Income 3,605 3,235 2,758 3,299 ROE 6.0% 5.1% 4.2% 4.8% Net Margin 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 2.1% ROA 2.7% 2.2% 2.0% 2.5% EBITDA/ interest 4.7x 3.4x 3.1x 3.3x Total Assets 132,967 145,728 137,182 132,032 Net Debt/EBITDA 1.9x 2.5x 2.4x 1.7x Cash 2,231 1,921 1,463 1,694 Debt/Equity 0.4x 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x Total Liabilities 71,024 81,722 70,271 61,396 Debt 22,663 33,346 28,600 22,563 This document is provided for the reader’s convenience Common Equity 61,944 64,006 66,911 70,636 only. The translation from the original Spanish version Source: Banorte was made by Banorte’s staff. Discrepancies may possibly arise between the original document in Spanish and its English translation. For this reason, the original research paper in Spanish is the only official document. The Spanish version was released before the English translation. The original document entitled “Impactan concesiones de rentas y “Julio Regalado”” was released 1 on July 27, 2020. D t f di t ib ti bli SORIANA – Results 2Q20 Revenue & EBITDA Margin MXN, million MXN, million Diff% vs Concept 2Q19 2Q20 Var % 2Q20e Estim. Revenue 39,096 39,637 1.4% 41,387 -4.2% 9.2% 43,000 10% Operating Income 2,199 2,054 -6.6% 2,568 -20.0% 7.7% Ebitda 3,010 2,853 -5.2% 3,359 -15.1% 7.7% 42,000 6.9% 7.2% 8% Net Income 796 820 3.0% 1,083 -24.3% 41,000 Margins 6% Operating Margin 5.6% 5.2% -0.4pp 6.2% -1.0pp 40,000 Ebitda Margin 7.7% 7.2% -0.5pp 8.1% -0.9pp 4% Net Margin 2.0% 2.1% 0.0pp 2.6% -0.5pp 39,000 EPS $0.44 $0.46 3.0% $0.60 -24.3% 38,000 2% 37,000 0% Income Statement (Million pesos) 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 Year 2019 2020 2020 Change Change Revenue EBITDA Margin Quarter 2 1 2 % y/y % q/q Net Revenue 39,096 38,755 39,637 1.4% 2.3% Costs of goods sold 30,588 30,272 31,217 2.1% 3.1% Gross profit 8,508 8,483 8,421 -1.0% -0.7% General expenses 6,340 6,357 6,388 0.7% 0.5% Net Income & ROE Operating Income 2,199 2,207 2,054 -6.6% -6.9% MXN, million Operating Margin 5.6% 5.7% 5.2% (0.4pp) (0.5pp) Depreciation 811 795 799 -1.4% 0.6% EBITDA 3,010 3,001 2,853 -5.2% -4.9% 5.4% 1,400 5.5% EBITDA Margin 7.7% 7.7% 7.2% (0.5pp) (0.5pp) 5.3% 5.4% Interest Income (Expense) net (862) (1,034) (708) -17.8% -31.5% 1,200 5.3% Interest expense 933 831 837 -10.3% 0.8% 1,000 5.2% Interest income 64 56 67 4.4% 19.7% 5.1% 800 Other income (expense) N.A. N.A. 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% Foreign exchange gain (loss) 7 (259) 62 >500% N.A. 600 5.0% 4.9% Unconsolidated subsidiaries (133) (144) (95) -28.2% -33.8% 400 Income before taxes 1,204 1,029 1,251 3.9% 21.6% 4.8% 200 Income taxes 399 332 427 7.0% 28.7% 4.7% Discontinued operations N.A. N.A. 0 4.6% Consolidated Net Income 805 697 824 2.3% 18.2% 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 Non-controlling interest 9 6 4 -62.5% -43.0% Net Income 796 691 820 3.0% 18.7% Net Income ROE Net Margin 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 0.0pp 0.3pp EPS 0.442 0.384 0.456 3.0% 18.7% Balance Sheet (Million pesos) Total Current Assets 48,589 44,089 42,942 -11.6% -2.6% Net Debt & Net Debt to EBITDA ratio Cash & Short Term Investments 2,795 2,250 1,993 -28.7% -11.4% MXN, million Long Term Assets 99,374 98,974 99,004 -0.4% 0.0% Property, Plant & Equipment (Net) 68,090 67,203 67,239 -1.2% 0.1% Intangible Assets (Net) 20,338 20,364 20,360 0.1% 0.0% 45,000 3.6x 4.0x Total Assets 147,963 143,062 141,946 -4.1% -0.8% 40,000 3.5x Current Liabilities 44,045 43,667 45,967 4.4% 5.3% 2.8x 2.8x 35,000 2.6x Short Term Debt 6,674 15,049 16,751 151.0% 11.3% 2.5x 3.0x 30,000 Accounts Payable 35,845 26,401 26,524 -26.0% 0.5% 2.5x 25,000 Long Term Liabilities 40,677 34,728 30,495 -25.0% -12.2% 2.0x 20,000 Long Term Debt 28,363 22,168 17,887 -36.9% -19.3% 1.5x Total Liabilities 84,722 78,395 76,462 -9.7% -2.5% 15,000 1.0x Stockholders’ Equity 63,241 64,667 65,483 3.5% 1.3% 10,000 Non-controlling interest 129 120 124 -3.7% 3.2% 5,000 0.5x Total Equity 63,112 64,547 65,359 3.6% 1.3% 0 0.0x Liabilities & Equity 147,963 143,062 141,946 -4.1% -0.8% 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 Net Debt 32,242 34,967 32,644 1.2% -6.6% Net Debt Net Debt to EBITDA Cash Flow CF from Operating Activities 5,535.3 (2,124.0) 3,658.9 CF from Investing Activities (450.0) (353.8) (402.3) CF from Financing Activities (4,924.8) 2,807.0 (3,513.4) FX effect on cash Change in Cash Balance 160.5 329.2 (256.9) Source: Banorte, MSE. 2 2020 Estimates We trimmed our estimates, after incorporating these results and adopting a more conservative stance for the 2H20. We certainly expect retail sector would remain defensive amidst the complex macroeconomic outlook resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, we believe Soriana's result would begin to slow down in the second half of the year, as a result of a lower economic activity and its impact on consumption, while maintaining its underperformance against ANTAD food retailers.
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