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Advertising/Subscription Platform Spending in Tier 1/2 Cities, and 10%/90% Breakdown in Tier 3 Cities

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Advertising/Subscription Platform Spending in Tier 1/2 Cities, and 10%/90% Breakdown in Tier 3 Cities 15 April 2014 Asia Pacific/China Equity Research Consumer Internet China Internet Sector Research Analysts INITIATION Evan Zhou 852 2101 6745 [email protected] Internet Auto: The age of sales digitisation Dick Wei 852 2101 7339 [email protected] Figure 1: Stage of "digitisation" by sectors Contribution by Marketing Sales Leads Generation Transaction Daniel Chen Performance Execution David Sun Fixed Price -based To start offering Auto performance-based solutions Real Estate Early penetration of performance- Mature solution in based leads generation online transactions Travel Source: Credit Suisse research ■ We see that the business models of auto vertical websites are evolving from portal ads and fixed dealership platform fees to performance-based sales leads generation monetisation, following a similar evolution path in online real estate and local life services. This could potentially double their existing share of economics within the auto sales value chain. We believe China's passenger vehicle sector is at the tipping point of further digitising the sales and marketing processes. Deeper penetration into the auto sales value chain (from 2.7% to 4.5% of total sales leads generation budget by 2015E) would meaningfully expand the addressable market for leading auto vertical sites. ■ Credit Suisse China Internet auto dealership survey. Our proprietary research among 46 dealers in China highlights dealers' overall willingness to increase online spend and experiment in new performance-based lead generation solutions with auto vertical websites. Dealers have a slight preference for BITA's dealership platform over ATHM, with better data analysis and sales services to improve marketing and sell-through efficiency. ■ We initiate on BITA with OUTPERFORM and ATHM with NEUTRAL. We like BITA (OP, TP: US$46) for its strong online-to-offline capability in sales leads generation. We expect a performance-based solution to offer meaningful upside in its wallet share among dealers. Valuation is attractive compared to peers and we recommend investors to accumulate. ATHM (N, TP: US$36) is leading in portals ads and is also fast ramping up the dealership platform. While we like its organic traffic and valuable UGC resources among auto vertical websites, we believe that the current valuation fairly reflects Autohome's leadership premium and superior portal user experience, and the stock may have limited upside before a meaningful breakthrough in auto e-commerce. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 15 April 2014 Focus charts and tables Figure 2: Sizing the addressable market—auto verticals has good room of further monetisation Rmb in billions, unless otherwise stated Travel Real estate Auto 2013 2015E 2013 2015E 2013 2015E Online marketing (verticals sites only) 4.1 5.0 2.1 4.0 Total marketing budget 67.7 81.9 35.2 44.1 Online penetration (%) 6.1% 6.0% 6.0% 9.2% Online sales leads generation 2.3 4.2 0.8 2.0 Total sales leads generation budget 67.7 81.9 30.0 43.2 Online penetration (%) 3.3% 5.1% 2.7% 4.5% Online transactions value 220.5 340.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total offline + online transactions value 2,620.0 3,100.0 6,768.9 8,190.4 1,956.0 2,834.0 Online penetration (%) 8.4% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Source: Company data, iResearch, NBS, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3: China passenger vehicle sales outlook Figure 4: Auto sector value chain 47% 25,000 50% Automakers/ '000 unit OEMs 45% Marketing 20,000 40% Sales 35% budgets, Sales 34% Target 35% budgets 15,000 30% 25% 25% Regional Sales Auto Office/Management Vertical Sites 25% 19% 10,000 20% 16% Marketing dollar 15% Sales Target 12% reimbursement 15% 8% 5,000 10% Dealers 7% 5% 0 0% Fulfillment, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015e Payment after-sales services Total PV sales YoY growth Traffic, Reviews, Sales Leads Customers Contents, Sales Channels Source: China Auto Market, Credit Suisse estimates Source: China Auto Market, CEIC, Credit Suisse research Figure 5: China Internet vertical and services comps Close Mkt cap EPS P/E P/B P/S ROE EV/EBITDA Company Ticker Ccy price (US$mn) 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E 2014E 2014E 2014E 2013 2014E 2015E 58.com WUBA US USD 43.3 3,496 0.3 0.5 0.9 152.1x 86.3x 45.5x 13.8x 14.7x 16.0% 180.8x 86.7x 39.4x Autohome ATHM US USD 34.0 3,568 0.8 1.0 1.5 44.7x 32.4x 23.0x 9.4x 11.8x 20.2% 23.3x 15.5x 10.9x Bitauto BITA US USD 31.9 1,347 1.1 1.5 1.8 28.2x 21.0x 17.0x n.a 4.1x n.a n.a n.a n.a Jiayuan DATE US USD 5.9 189 0.4 0.3 0.5 15.1x 18.1x 11.5x 5.5x 2.0x 8.0% n.a n.a n.a SouFun SFUN US USD 13.5 6,866 0.7 0.8 1.1 17.9x 15.4x 12.2x 6.9x 7.2x 45.2% 19.5x 16.3x 13.4x Qunar QUNR US USD 28.9 3,284 -0.2 -0.4 -0.0 -151x -71.7x -625.0x 27.0x 14.0x -53% -61.0x -1644x 26.8x Ctrip CTRP US USD 53.8 7,056 1.5 1.1 1.7 35.2x 48.9x 31.7x 5.6x 7.7x 11.2% 39.0x 65.2x 29.7x eLong LONG US USD 15.5 536 -0.4 -0.1 0.5 -35.2x -124.0x 29.2x n.a 2.5x n.a n.a n.a n.a Sohu SOHU US USD 59.5 2,283 1.6 -1.9 -1.0 38.1x -30.7x -58.0x 3.9x 1.4x -13% 5.8x 16.1x 7.8x Average 47.3x 37.0x 24.3x 10.3x 7.3x 5.0% 53.7x 39.9x 21.4x Note: Closing price as of 14 Apr 2014. Source: Company data, Thomson-Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates China Internet Sector 2 15 April 2014 Internet Auto: The age of sales digitisation We see that business models of auto vertical websites are evolving from portal ads and We expect auto vertical fixed dealership platform fees to performance-based sales leads generation monetisation, websites to evolve into following a similar evolution path in online real estate and local life services. This could performance-based potentially double their existing share of economics within the auto sales value chain. monetisation and double existing share of economics We believe China's passenger vehicle sector is at the tipping point of further digitising its sales and marketing processes. Deeper penetration into the auto sales value chain would meaningfully expand the addressable market for leading auto vertical websites. Sizing the addressable market: Auto sales leads generation After going through years of migrating marketing dollars from offline to online, leading auto We expect the auto sales verticals websites are poised to grab more meaningful budget, and begin to tap into sales- leads generation market to oriented budgets with performance-based solutions for dealers and automakers. We grow from Rmb800 mn to estimate that the evolution to performance-based sales leads generation will help the auto Rmb2.0 bn in the next two verticals sites to expand their revenue base in this segment from Rmb800 mn (2.7% of years total sales leads generation budget) to Rmb2.0 bn (4.5% of total) in the next two years. Credit Suisse Internet auto dealership survey We organised the first Credit Suisse China Internet auto dealership survey. Our survey Our proprietary survey results highlight dealers' overall willingness to increase online spend and experiment in shows dominant share of new performance-based lead generation solutions. BITA and ATHM have dominant share BITA/ATHM in online auto both in display and dealership platform subscription revenues. Dealers have a slight verticals preference for BITA's dealership platform over ATHM's, with better data analysis and sales services to improve marketing and sell-through efficiency. ■ Online penetration in marketing budget continues, especially in lower-tier cities. ■ BITA and ATHM have the lion’s share of the auto display ad segment. ■ BITA and ATHM garner one-third share, respectively, in their dealership platform. Online sales leads generation shows higher ROI with lower spending share. Mobile awareness among dealers is still low. ■ Performance-based sales leads generation: Dealers welcome the new online promotion model, but the current e-commerce event format needs improvement. Stock picks We initiate on BITA with OUTPERFORM and ATHM with NEUTRAL. We initiate on BITA with OUTPERFORM and ATHM We like BITA (OP, TP: US$46) for its strong online-to-offline capability in sales leads with NEUTRAL generation. We expect a performance-based solution to offer meaningful upside in its wallet share among dealers. Valuation is attractive compared to peers and we recommend investors to accumulate to capture its further growth in auto distribution digitisation. Risks: (1) external traffic reliance on partner sites to pressure margin; (2) potential new disruptive entrants in sales-leads generation.
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