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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK for SOUTHEAST ASIA, CHINA and INDIA 2018 – UPDATE: PROMOTING OPPORTUNITIES in E-COMMERCE © OECD 2018 3 Version Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2018 – UPDATE PROMOTING OPPORTUNITIES IN E-COMMERCE The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a bi-annual publication on regional economic Economic Outlook for Southeast growth, development and regional integration in Emerging Asia. It focuses on the economic conditions of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2018 –UPDATE Asia, China and India Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. It also addresses relevant economic issues in China and India to fully reflect economic developments in the region. 2018 – UPDATE The update of the Outlook comprises two main parts, each highlighting a particular dimension of recent economic developments in the region. The first part presents the regional economic monitor, depicting the economic PROMOTING OPPORTUNITIES IN E-COMMERCE outlook and macroeconomic challenges in the region. And the second part consists of a special thematic chapter addressing a major issue facing the region. This update focuses on promoting opportunities in e-commerce. PROMOTING OPPORTUNITIES IN E-COMMERCE IN OPPORTUNITIES PROMOTING Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/9789264302990-en This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases. Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information. UPDATE ISBN: 978-92-64-302983 41 2018 25 1 P 1 Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2018 ‑ Update PROMOTING OPPORTUNITIES IN E‑COMMERCE version Preliminary This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the member countries of the OECD or its Development Centre. This document, as well as any data and any map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Please cite this publication as: OECD (2018), Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2018 - Update: Promoting Opportunities in E-commerce, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264302990-en ISBN 978-92-64-30298-3 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-30299-0 (PDF) version Photo credits: Cover © OECD 2018 PreliminaryCorrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm . © OECD 2018 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of the source and copyright owner(s) is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected]. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre francais d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at [email protected]. Foreword The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India - Update is released following the main report of the Outlook, to ensure that its data, projections and policy discussions remain up-to-date and relevant. Both reports focus on the economic conditions of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam) and two large economies in the region, China and India. This publication evolved from the Southeast Asian Economic Outlook. Beginning with the first release of the Update to the Outlook in June 2016, the Outlook has become a biannual publication. The 2018 Update is the first edition to be released as an independent publication. The Outlook was initially proposed at an informal reflection group on Southeast Asia in 2008 as a follow-up of the Council Meeting at Ministerial level (MCM) in 2007 and was accepted by ministers/senior officials from ASEAN countries at the occasion of the 2nd OECD-Southeast Asia Regional Forum in Bangkok in 2009. The Outlook project was officially launched in 2010 and each edition is regularly presented at the occasion of the ASEAN/ East Asia Summit. It was included in the OECD’s Southeast Asia Regional Programme (SEARP) at the Steering Group Meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia in March 2015, with its role of providing a horizontal view of activities, identifying emerging trends in the region and providing a backbone for the different streams of the Programme confirmed at the 2015 MCM. The Outlook serves as a strategic foresight and policyversion dialogue tool for the SEARP and includes summaries of recent developments in the region on issues related to the Programme’s six Regional Policy Networks and three Initiatives. This edition of the Update is comprised of two main parts: a regional economic monitor and a thematic focus specific to this year’s reports. The 2018 edition of the Update focuses on the opportunities and challenges of cross-border e-commerce in Emerging Asia. The region has seen rapid growth in e-commerce in recent years and is expected to account for a large share of the global market in the future. Ensuring that the potential benefits of this trend are realised will require governments to make improvements to connectivity, skills, digital security and consumer protection, and regional and international co-operation. The OECD Development Centre is committed to working alongside governments of developing and emerging economies and regional actors to identify key areas of intervention in order to address these challenges. The Centre enjoys the full membership of three Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam, as well as India and China. This project has also benefitted from the generous support of other Emerging Asian countries. Like other regional economic outlooks produced by the OECD Development Centre, this report was prepared in collaboration with regional partners; UNESCAP and the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) contributed to the 2018 edition. The Update also benefited from discussions with the ASEAN Secretariat. The OECD is committed to supporting Asian countries in their efforts to promote economic Preliminaryand social well-being through rigorous analysis, peer learning and best practices. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ASIA, CHINA AND INDIA 2018 – UPDATE: PROMOTING OPPORTUNITIES IN E-COMMERCE © OECD 2018 3 version Preliminary ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ASIA, CHINA AND INDIA 2018 – UPDATE: PROMOTING OPPORTUNITIES IN E-COMMERCE © OECD 2018 5 Acknowledgements The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2018 - Update: Promoting Opportunities in E-commerce was prepared by the Asia Desk of the OECD Development Centre, in co-operation with United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) and the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA). The publication also benefited from discussions with the ASEAN Secretariat. The team was led by Kensuke Tanaka, Head of the Asia Desk and valuable guidance was provided by Mario Pezzini, Director of the OECD Development Centre as well as suggestions by Naoko Ueda, Deputy Director. This volume was drafted by a team composed of Kensuke Tanaka, Prasiwi Ibrahim, Derek Carnegie, Ryan Jacildo, Juita Mohamad, Jingjing Xia, Lurong Chen, and Masato Abe. Jingjing Xia also contributed to statistical work related to this publication and Jihyeon Kim, Jaewon Kim, Fiona Valente and Yuanita Suhud provided useful inputs. Elizabeth Nash, Delphine Grandrieux, Studio Pykha and Aida Buendia turned the manuscript into the publication. The Outlook’s 2018 Update benefited from discussions with OECD Delegations at the Outlook Consultation Group (OCG) meetings in March, September, November 2017 and February 2018 in Paris, led by co-chairs of this consultation group, Ambassador Jong- Won Yoon, Ambassador Ma. Theresa Lazaro and Counsellor Jürg Schneider, together with Ambassador Pierre Duquesne. The Outlook also benefited fromversion discussion with experts in the region and other international organisations. The authors are grateful to Rintaro Tamaki, former Deputy Secretary-General of the OECD, Chang Junhong, Director of AMRO, Naoyuki Yoshino, Dean of the ADBI, Hidetoshi Nishimura, President of ERIA, as well as Aladdin Rillo, Izuru Kobayashi, Fukunari Kimura, Ng Chuin Hwei, Yumiko Murakami, Atsushi Higuchi and Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr. The full Outlook 2018 report was presented at the occasion of the ASEAN/East Asia Summit in Manila, the Philippines in November 2017. Support from OECD delegations and embassies of Asian countries in Paris, in particular, Ambassador Hiroshi Oe, Ambassador Sihasak Phuangketkeow, Ambassador Nguyen Thiep, Rapunzel Acop, Rudjimin, Fajar Harijo, Takuma Kajita, Masahiro Katsuno, Venugopal Menon, Tze Shen Ong, Junhee Lee, Hye Ryoung Song, Karina Ratnamurti, Sarvjeet Soodan, Houmphanh Soukprasith, Sisouphanh Keobandavong, Soveasna Sun, Sasilada Kusump, Sirichada Thongtan, Sean Tan, Teddy Low, Phuong Nguyen, Nguyen Thanh Thao, Zaidah Shahminan, Thyra Chheang, Thein Min Htun, Shwe Yi Phyo, Bin Zhang, Bo Chen, Sining Zhao, Hans Siriban,
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