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Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment: Opportunities and Risks for Asia

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Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment: Opportunities and Risks for Asia ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE INVESTMENT Opportunities and Risks for Asia Edited by Naoko Nemoto and Peter J. Morgan ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK INSTITUTE Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment: Opportunities and Risks for Asia ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK INSTITUTE © 2020 Asian Development Bank Institute All rights reserved. ISBN 978-4-89974-205-0 (Print) ISBN 978-4-89974-206-7 (PDF) The views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), its Advisory Council, ADB’s Board or Governors, or the governments of ADB members. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. ADBI uses proper ADB member names and abbreviations throughout and any variation or inaccuracy, including in citations and references, should be read as referring to the correct name. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “recognize,” “country,” or other geographical names in this publication, ADBI does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works without the express, written consent of ADBI. The Asian Development Bank recognizes "China" as the People's Republic of China, "Korea" as the Republic of Korea, and "Vietnam" as Viet Nam. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, Japan www.adbi.org Contents Tables and Figures v List of Contributors ix Foreword xi Abbreviations xv 1 Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment: Concepts, Prospects, and the Policy Landscape 1 Upalat Korwatanasakul 2 Competition in Extra-Financial Information Disclosure Frameworks and Standards: Significance and Challenges for Effective Convergence 32 Toshikazu Hayashi 3 Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors and Their Implications for Equity Investments 49 Yasuyuki Kato 4 How Will Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors Affect the Sovereign Borrowing Cost? 71 Naoko Nemoto and Lian Liu 5 Optimal Portfolio Selection for Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment 95 Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, and Miyu Otsuka 6 Measuring the Effect of Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment on Banking in Indonesia and How Fiscal Policies Contribute 108 Abdul Aziz 7 The Ineffectiveness of Environmental, Social, and Governance Policies and Incentives: The Impact of the Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus on Central Asian and South Asian Countries 137 Muhammad Ayub Mehar iii iv Contents 8 Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment in Green Energy Projects in Southeast Asia: Potential, Drivers, and Policy Options 154 Falendra Kumar Sudan 9 Corporate Social Responsibility and Financial Performance in Microfinance Institutions 175 Mahinda Wijesiri and Diane-Gabrielle Tremblay Tables and Figures Tables 1.1 Growth of Sustainable Investing Assets by Country or Region, 2014–2016 7 1.2 Key Global Initiatives Covering Elements of Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment 7 1.3 Sustainable Stock Exchanges Initiative in Selected Asian Economies, 2019 11 1.4 Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment of Domestic Pension Funds and Public Offering Funds in the Republic of Korea, 2016–2017 (W billion) 14 1.5 Sustainability Disclosure Rankings of Stock Exchanges in ASEAN and Selected Economies, 2013–2017 17 1.6 ASEAN’s Sustainability Landscape 18 2.1 Overview of Framework Developers and Standard Setters 35 2.2 Classification of Frameworks and Standards 37 3.1 Disclosure and Cost of Capital (Japanese companies) 52 3.2 Disclosure and Cost of Capital 53 3.3 Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings and Cost of Capital (Japanese Companies), 2016 (regression coefficient t-value) 54 3.4 Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings and Cost of Capital (Japanese Companies), 2017(regression coefficient t-value) 54 3.5 Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings and Cost of Capital (Japanese Companies), 2018 (regression coefficient t-value) 54 3.6 Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings and Cost of Capital (US Companies), 2016 (regression coefficient t-value) 55 3.7 Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings and Cost of Capital (US Companies), 2017 (regression coefficient t-value) 55 3.8 Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings and Cost of Capital (US Companies), 2018 (regression coefficient t-value) 56 3.9 Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings and Cost of Capital (UK Companies), 2016 (regression coefficient t-value) 56 3.10 Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings and Cost of Capital (UK Companies), 2017 (regression coefficient t-value) 56 3.11 Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings and Cost of Capital (UK Companies), 2018 (regression coefficient t-value) 57 v vi Tables and Figures 3.12 Are Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings Factored into Corporate Value? (2018) 60 3.13 Excess Returns of Environmental, Social, and Governance Indexes 62 3.14 Risk-Adjusted Returns (t-values) of Environmental, Social, and Governance Indexes 62 4.1 Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment Assets by Region, 2014–2018($ billion) 75 4.2 Mean Distribution of All Variables 80 A4.1 Beyond Rating’s Environmental, Social, and Governance Government Rating Framework 88 A4.2 Morgan Stanley Capital International’s Environmental, Social, and Governance Government Rating Framework 89 A4.3 Pearson Correlation Matrix of Environmental, Social, and Governance Scores 90 A4.4 Pearson Correlation Matrix 91 A4.5 Economies Included in the Analysis 92 A4.6 Regressions of Sovereign CDS Spread (with Morgan Stanley Capital International environmental, social, and governance data) 93 A4.7 Regressions of Sovereign CDS Spread (with Beyond Ratings environmental, social, and governance data) 94 5.1 Descriptive Statistics of Variables 104 5.2 Panel Ordinary Least Square Regression Results 104 6.1 Banks with the Largest Assets, Indonesia 110 6.2 Environmental, Social, and Governance Grades and Scores(D– to A+; 1–100) 112 6.3 Environmental, Social, and Governance Grades and Scores (2009–2017) in Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Mandiri (D– to A+; 1–100) 113 6.4 ESG Score and Grade (2009 – 2017) in Bank Central Asia and Bank Nasional Indonesia (D– to A+; 1–100) 113 6.5 Final Results of Fixed Effect Method Estimates: Effects of Independent Variables Against Dependent Variables in Stock/Share Price Regression (Coefficient = Rp) 118 6.6 Annual Stock Prices in Four Sample Banks, Indonesia (From the constant value [C])(Rp) 119 6.7 Final Results of Fixed Effect Method Model Estimates Effects of Independent Variables Against the Dependent Variable Total Deposits (Coefficient = Rp000,000) 121 Tables and Figures vii A6.2.1 Selection of Fixed Effect Method Models Versus Pooled Least Square 133 A6.2.2 Selection of Fixed Effect Method Versus Random Effect Method 134 A6.2.3 Statistical Test Criteria (Diagnostic Test) 135 A6.2.4 Variable Tables Free of Multicollinearity 136 7.1 GSP+ Conventions 141 7.2 Countries with GSP+ Status 142 7.3 Dependent Variable Foreign Direct Investment (US$ billion), Panel Least Squares (Fixed Effect Model) 144 7.4 Dependent Variable: Net Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (US$ billion), Panel Least Squares (Fixed Effect Model) 145 7.5 Dependent Variable: Inflow of Portfolio Investment ($ billion), Panel Least Squares (Fixed Effect Model) 146 7.6 Dependent Variable: Exports (US$ billion), Panel Least Squares (Fixed Effect Model) 146 7.7 Dependent Variable: Per Capita Health Expenditures, Panel Least Square 149 9.1 Summary Statistics of Inputs, Outputs, and Intermediate Variables Included in the Data Envelopment Analysis Model, and Their Units of Measurement 179 9.2 Descriptive Statistics, 2011–2014 181 9.3 Ordinary Least Square Estimation Results 183 Figures 1.1 Sustainable Investment Assets by Strategy and Region, 2016 ($ billion) 6 1.2 Growth of Strategies, 2014–2018 ($ billion) 6 1.3 Overall Quality of Disclosure 18 1.4 Average Net Profit Margin of Environmental, Social, and Governance Companies versus Non-Environmental, Social, and Governance Companies (%) 24 2.1 Major Global Extra-Financial Information Disclosure Frameworks and Standards 33 2.2 Diversifying Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment Strategies and the Difference in Information Demand 39 2.3 Three Possible Challenges Within the Investment Chain 41 2.4 Complexity Between Disclosure Items and Indicators of the Global Reporting Initiative and the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board 42 viii Tables and Figures 3.1 Comparison of Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings by Country 57 3.2 Average Environmental, Social, and Governance Ratings in Selected Economies, 2018 59 4.1 Relation Between Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment; Principles for Responsible Investment; and Sustainable Development Goals 74 4.2 Global Environmental, Social, and Governance Investing Asset Allocation, 2018 75 5.1 Traditional Portfolio Investment Selection 100 5.2 Portfolio Allocation when Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment Is Taken into Account (second quadrant) 100 5.3 International Greenhouse Gas Taxation Scheme 102 6.1 Criteria and Scores of ESG Investment 112 6.2 Stock Price Trends in Four Sample Banks, Indonesia (From the constant value [C]) (Rp) 120 A6.1 Process for Choosing a Panel
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