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The University of Sydney Zubin Bilimoria Angus Gibbs Levi Romanov Lisa Wang Anthony Yao Sydney Airport Holdings Ltd (ASX: SYD) Recommendation: BUY Target Price: $6.61 Last Close: $6.00 (as at 23/09/15) Market Cap: 13.38bn Investment Thesis We initiate coverage on SYD with a BUY recommendation based on a 12-month price target of $6.61, a 10.2% upside from last close of $6.00 as at 23 September 2015. China Growth Story 1 Booming middle-class and capacity expansion driving strong international passenger growth. Investor Appeal 2 Attractive risk to reward ratio will continually attract investors in low-interest rate environment. Badgerys Creek 3 Sydney Airport likely to exercise option to develop Badgerys Creek, alleviating long-term capacity restraints. Valuation 4 12-month price target of $6.61, a 10.2% upside from last close of $6.00 as at 23 September 2015. 2 Business and Industry Overview Fundamentally driven by passenger growth across all key segments. Despite operating in different segments… …passenger growth is the main driver and has increased steadily. 40 4.2% CAGR 7% FY14 Revenue 13.1 30 12.7 12% 11.6 12.3 Aeronautical 11.4 42% Retail 20 millions Property & Car Rental 17% 25.0 25.4 10 21.6 21.9 22.5 Parking & Ground Transport Other 0 22% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Domestic International Share price history shows solid growth over the past year, with the share price reaching an all-time high. $7.00 120 $6.00 41.5% growth 80 $5.00 millions 40 $4.00 $3.00 0 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Volume SYD ASX200 rebased Sources: Company reports, Australian Stock Exchange. 3 Overview Chinese Growth Story Investor Appeal Badgerys Creek Upside Valuation Business and Industry Overview Fundamentally driven by passenger growth across all key segments. Despite operating in different segments… …passenger growth is the main driver and has increased steadily. 40 4.2% CAGR 7% FY14 Revenue 13.1 30 12.7 12% 11.6 12.3 Aeronautical 11.4 42% Retail 20 millions Property & Car Rental 17% 25.0 25.4 10 21.6 21.9 22.5 Parking & Ground Transport Other 0 22% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Domestic International Solid share price growth over the past year, reaching an all-time high… … with healthy key financial metrics. $7.00 90 Metric 2012A 2013A 2014A 41.5% growth $6.00 EBITDA margin (%) 80.8% 77.9% 81.5% 60 $5.00 ROIC (%) 6.2% 6.7% 7.1% millions 30 $4.00 Interest coverage 1.8x 1.9x 4.3x $3.00 0 Net debt/EBITDA 7.2x 7.2x 7.2x Sep-14 Volume SYD ASX200 rebased Sources: Company reports, Australian Stock Exchange. 4 Overview Chinese Growth Story Investor Appeal Badgerys Creek Upside Valuation China Growth Story Outbound travel becoming a firm part of the consumption pattern of the Chinese middle-class. Despite cyclical headwinds in Chinese equity markets… …consumer sentiment has improved over the same period. 6000 17% 120 15% 5000 115 39.3% fall 13% 110 4000 11% 105 3000 9% Consumer Sentiment Index SentimentConsumer ShanghaiCompositeIndex YOY RetailGrowth YOYSpending 7% 100 2000 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Retail spending (LHS) Consumer sentiment (RHS) Discretionary expenditure increases… …will see greater Chinese passenger traffic for Sydney. 100% Growing middle- 34% class 41% 75% 44% Discretionary spending 50% 34% 35% 36% Outbound 25% travel 32% 24% 20% Sydney 0% Airport Proportion Discretionary SpendingProportion of 2015 2020 2025 Necessities Semi-necessities Discretionary Sources: IBISWorld, McKinsey, Westpac MNI Report. 5 Overview Chinese Growth Story Investor Appeal Badgerys Creek Upside Valuation China Growth Story China-Australia Air Services Agreement helps SYD realise this growth opportunity from booming middle-class. Capacity expansion and new routes… …will see SYD experience similar growth to Auckland Airport. 350 300 22.7% CAGR 250 Key Beijing 200 Existing routes 150 299 New routes thousands 232 100 220 Nanjing Other target cities 173 Shanghai 132 Chongqing 50 Fuzhou 0 Xiamen 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Guangzhou Chinese passengers (rolling 12 month total) Falling AUD against major currencies... …will drive stronger international passenger growth. 1.2 8.0 Passengers (thousands) 2014 2015 2016 2016 Growth China 786 936 1,123 20.0% 1.0 7.0 United States 655 694 736 6.0% 0.8 6.0 New Zealand 917 925 934 0.9% AUD/RMB United Kingdom 524 540 556 3.0% 0.6 5.0 AUD/USD and AUD/GBP AUD/USD Other 3,145 3,271 3,401 4.0% Australia outbound 2.8% 0.4 4.0 7,076 7,274 7,478 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total 13,103 13,640 14,228 4.3% USD (LHS) GBP (LHS) RMB (RHS) Sources: Company reports, Bloomberg, SG estimates. 6 Overview Chinese Growth Story Investor Appeal Badgerys Creek Upside Valuation Investor Appeal Low interest rates and volatile equity markets create favourable conditions for additional investor demand. Low global interest rate environment… …in which SYD has an attractive risk to reward profile… 7.0% 16.0% 1.5 6.0% 12.0% 5.0% 1.0 4.0% 8.0% Beta 3.0% 0.5 Yield to Maturity 4.0% 2.0% DividendYieldandGrowth 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SYD Utilities REIT Financials US 10 Year Bonds AU 10 Year Bonds FY15FY16 dividendyield yield FY16-19FY16-19 3yr Dividend CAGR CAGR Franking Beta …and high dividend growth. Natural protection from interest rise. 9.0% CAGR 35.0 32.9 Interest rate 30.4 environment 30.0 27.8 25.5 Interest rates remain low Interest rates rise 25.0 22.5 23.5 21.0 21.0 20.0 Passenger growth Investor demand improves business 15.0 remains stable fundamentals 10.0 Dividends(cents/share) 5.0 0.0 Natural protection FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve System, Bloomberg, SG Estimates, Company Reports. 7 Overview Chinese Growth Story Investor Appeal Badgerys Creek Upside Valuation Badgerys Creek It is likely SYD will exercise option to develop Badgerys Creek Airport. Option exercised by SYD Developed by SYD • Total CAPEX c. $1,700m to $2,500m • Present value of $0.09 to $0.30 per share Decision to be reached within 4 to 9 months Badgerys Creek Airport after Government proposal is released Developed by competitor • Unlikely due to SYD’s relatively Option not exercised by low cost of capital • Even if developed, impact on 12 SYD month target price is negligible Airport not developed • Current business model and competition landscape do not change • No impact Most likely scenario Sources: Company Reports, Western Sydney Committee filings, SG analysis. 8 Overview Chinese Growth Story Investor Appeal Badgerys Creek Upside Valuation Badgerys Creek Alleviating capacity constraints, allowing for greater international passenger growth at Kingsford Smith Airport. Sydney Airport’s regulatory constraints… …diverting regional flights allows for more international traffic. 100 $25 $23.41 Regulatory Limit of 80 Landings per Hour 80 $20 60 $15 40 $10 20 $7.10 Movementsper Hour $5 0 RevenuePer Passenger 7:00 5:00 6:00 8:00 9:00 11:00 17:00 10:00 12:00 13:00 15:00 16:00 18:00 19:00 21:00 14:00 22:00 20:00 $0 2013 2029E Domestic International High growth in Western Sydney region. Similar cities see no passenger cannibalisation. 16% 8% 6.1% 12.4% 6.0% 5.8% 12% 6% 5.3% 4.9% 5.1% 9.8% 4% 8% 6.5% 2% 4% 4 Year AveragePAX Growth 0% Cumulativeyear 5 Pop. Growth 0% London Frankfurt Melbourne Western Sydney Rest of Sydney Rest of NSW Before Second Airport(s) After Second Airport(s) Sources: Company reports, IBISWorld, Government studies. 9 Overview Chinese Growth Story Investor Appeal Badgerys Creek Upside Valuation Valuation Valuation supports our hypothesis, with a target price of $6.61, a 10.2% upside to the last close of $6.00. Last Close Valuation $6.00 $6.61 52 Week Trading Range $4.10 $6.00 - Last close of $6.00 as at 23 September 2015 - 60% Discounted Cash Flows weighting Valuation $6.12 $6.61 $7.28 - 20% Dividend Discount Model weighting - 20% Multiples weighting - Three stage growth model, second stage 4.9% FCFF growth, terminal stage 2.3% FCFF growth Discounted Cash Flows $6.19 $6.79 $7.43 - 7.0% WACC in forecast, 6.6% WACC in terminal - Monte Carlo simulation provides range - Use explicitly forecasted dividends - Cost of equity of 7.5% Dividend Discount Model $6.28 $6.90 $7.67 - Terminal dividend growth rate of 3.1% - Flex cost of equity and terminal growth ±0.25% - Equally weighted P/FCF, P/E and dividend yield spread Multiples (Airport) $4.49 $5.40 $6.11 above government bond - Maximum and minimum provides range - Equally weighted P/E, EV/EBIT and dividend yield Multiples (Infrastructure) $5.59 $6.34 $6.93 - Maximum and minimum provides range $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 Sources: Company Reports, Bloomberg, Australian Stock Exchange. 10 Overview Chinese Growth Story Investor Appeal Badgerys Creek Upside Valuation Risks Two key risks to our recommendation have mitigating factors. Key High Domestic travel further slows down Key risks Risks considered Melbourne China and Brisbane passenger Airports draw slowdown passengers Exogenous Badgerys shocks: e.g. Creek terror attacks, Medium development natural risk disasters Significance of RiskSignificance of Regulations Interest rate inhibit rise reduces passenger yield growth attractiveness Labour related disruptions Low Low Medium High Probability of Risk Sources: Company reports, IBISWorld, SG Estimates.
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