REPORT China and conflict-affected states Between principle and pragmatism SUDAN SRI LANKA NEPAL SOUTH SUDAN Ivan Campbell, Thomas Wheeler, Larry Attree, Dell Marie Butler and Bernardo Mariani January 2012 China and conflict-affected states Between principle and pragmatism Ivan Campbell, Thomas Wheeler, Larry Attree, Dell Marie Butler and Bernardo Mariani SAFERWORLD JANUARY 2012 Authors This report was researched and written for Saferworld by Ivan Campbell, Thomas Wheeler, Larry Attree, Dell Marie Butler and Bernardo Mariani. Acknowledgements We are grateful for advice and feedback from Saferworld country teams in Sri Lanka, Nepal and South Sudan, as well as colleagues Duncan Hiscock and Johannes Olschner. For their time and comments, special thanks also go to Ian Taylor, Ochieng Adala, Chris Alden, Laura Barber, Chin-Hao Huang, Jonathan Goodhand, Nishchal Pandey, Kathelijne Schenkel, Martin Stuerzinger, Xia Liping and Xiao Yuhua. The report was copy-edited by Deepthi Wickremasinghe and designed by Jane Stevenson. Saferworld is grateful to the United Kingdom Department for International Development for providing financial support for this project. © Saferworld January 2012. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without full attribution. Saferworld welcomes and encourage the utilisation and dissemination of the material included in this publication. Contents 1. Introduction 1 Overview 1 Rationale 2 Background 3 Research focus 3 Methodology 4 2. China’s approach 7 Introduction 7 Interests and principles informing China’s engagements abroad 8 Foreign policy principles 10 Military engagement 12 Arms transfers 12 China at the international level 14 International co-operation outside the UN 17 Aid 18 Conclusions 22 Acronyms 23 3. Sri Lanka case study 25 Introduction 25 Setting the context 26 China’s growing role in Sri Lanka 33 China’s impact on conflict and security in Sri Lanka 41 Conclusions and implications for policy 56 Acronyms 61 4. Nepal case study 63 Introduction 63 Background 64 China’s engagement in Nepal 67 Why China engages in Nepal 71 Other international actors 77 Impact on peace and conflict 78 Policy implications 83 Acronyms 87 5. Sudan and South Sudan case study 89 Introduction 89 Conflict in Sudan and South Sudan 89 International engagement in Sudan and South Sudan 97 The role of China 104 Conclusions and policy implications 125 Acronyms 130 6. Conclusions and recommendations 131 China rising 131 Implications for the West 132 Bridging the policy gap 133 Building a culture of co-operation 135 An enabling international architecture 136 1 Introduction 1.1 Overview WE ARE WITNESSING a “revolution in the global order” and China is leading this revolution.1 In the West, analysts and policy makers are grappling with what China’s rise means for international relations and the spectrum of foreign policy concerns. In China itself policy makers are also coming to terms with this new found influence and the responsibilities that come with it. A critical issue will be what happens as China and other rising powers make their presence increasingly felt in countries where peace is precarious. The risk is that conflict issues may be aggravated, leading to instability and even the return of violent conflict. But equally, China’s increasing engagement offers opportunities to consolidate peace. This report is one of the main outputs of a 12-month research project that examined the implications for peace and stability of China’s increasing engagement in conflict- affected states. The aim of the project is to contribute to more harmonised engagement by international actors in the context of major changes in the global order. While it examines the role of China in particular, it is situated within a wider Saferworld programme that focuses upon ‘rising powers’ more broadly and the implications of their rise for peace and stability. The report is based upon research in four conflict-affected states: Sri Lanka, Nepal, Sudan and South Sudan. As well as deepening understanding of China’s engagement in these contexts and of the interests that underpin it, the report explores how this will impact upon conflict issues and considers the implications for policy makers. It is intended to inform and stimulate thinking among policy communities both in China and in the West. Based on the findings of in-country research and analysis, this report contributes to the evidence base about how China’s rise will affect conflict-affected states. It is meant not only to raise awareness, but also to encourage policy makers to engage with the new realities, including how they can respond to the changing context for inter- national efforts to promote peace and stability. We start from the premise that the rise of China and other new actors should not be viewed simply as a threat to peace and stability; rather, it presents opportunities as well as challenges. However, the longer that policy makers in the West and in China fail to engage with each other about these issues, the likelier it is that the challenges will predominate over the opportunities. Therefore part of our objective is to help lay the foundations for constructive dialogue between policy communities in China and the West regarding how to support peace and stability in conflict-affected states. 1 Browne J, (UK Foreign Office Minister), ‘Navigating the New World Order’, speech at Chatham House, 20 July 2011, www.fco.gov.uk/en/news/latest-news/?view=Speech&id=633554682, accessed 3 November 2011 2 CHINA AND CONFLICT -AFFECTED STATES : BETWEEN PRINCIPLE AND PRAGMATISM 1.2 Rationale The nature of the international community is changing and with it how we must act collectively in support of peace and stability. The rise of a number of emerging powers means that we are moving from a unipolar to a multipolar world order. China and India are the most obvious examples, while others include Russia, Brazil and South Africa, a quintet referred to as the BRICS states. Largely by virtue of their rapid economic growth in recent years, these states now play a much more significant role on the global stage than previously. Preventing violent conflict is among the key challenges facing the international com- munity, both in terms of its devastating direct impacts and its potential to undermine development. It is increasingly understood that conflict and insecurity are a profound obstacle to social and economic transformation. In its 2011 World Development Report (WDR), the World Bank clearly recognised that violent conflict underpins many of the challenges facing development, and that preventing conflict must inform strategies for economic development and pursuing the millennium development goals (MDGs). The WDR presents strong evidence and arguments that conflict and security need to be addressed both as prerequisites for development and as ends in themselves. Increasingly, international donors are stepping up to the challenge of preventing conflict and insecurity, and there is growing consensus that more attention and resources are needed to tackle state fragility and instability. However, the question of how to engage effectively in such contexts remains a key challenge for policy makers. The recent track record of the international community in assisting countries emerging from war to build sustainable peace is not encouraging. Despite a decrease in conflict globally, national and international actors have struggled to build peace in post-war contexts. The reconfiguration of the international community, and in particular the emergence of major new players such as China and India, provides an opportunity to reassess and refresh policy approaches to conflict-affected states. The opportunity is there for Western donors to engage these new actors based on a shared interest in, and concern to promote, peace and stability. This may require shedding some preconceptions on all sides, as well as developing new forums and mechanisms for constructive policy engagement and dialogue. China is globally the most influential of these emerging actors, due primarily to its exceptional economic growth. The success of China’s economy depends upon its access to overseas markets and resources, and it has become a major investor and donor in many parts of the developing world, both within Asia and increasingly in Africa. This injection of resources means that China can have considerable political leverage in the countries concerned. China’s engagement has therefore altered the context in which international efforts to build peace and stability take place. It is likely to be in a position where it can either buttress or undermine the peacebuilding influence of Western donors in conflict-affected states. While there has been some research and analysis of donor policies and interventions in conflict-affected states, this has largely focused upon ‘traditional’ (i.e. Western) donors. Thus far, relatively little attention has been paid to the impact of rising powers on conflict-affected states. The focus of this research project therefore is to understand better how the involvement of new actors like China is altering the context for building peace and stability. It seeks to raise awareness of the fact that the peacebuilding context is changing, and to illustrate how and why this is happening. The rationale for the project is not simply to sound an alarm, but rather to contribute to the global debate about how to support peace and stability in the new world order. In particular, it is intended to support constructive engagement and dialogue between policy communities in China and the West regarding their respective priorities for peace. Thus the report not only focuses upon the challenges and potential problems of INTRODUCTION 3 conflicting donor approaches, but also identifies opportunities to strengthen engage- ment and coherence between ‘old’ and ‘new’ donors based upon a shared interest in peace and stability.