The Origins and Development of South African Energy Policy

The Origins and Development of South African Energy Policy Andrew Marquard Thesis Presented for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN January 2006 “Audiences know what to expect, and that is all they are prepared to believe in.” The Actor, in Rosenkrantz and Guildenstern – are Dead, Tom Stoppard ii I, Andrew Marquard, hereby declare that the above thesis is my own unaided work, both in concept and execution, and that apart from the normal guidance from my supervisor, I have received no assistance. Neither the substance nor any part of the above thesis has been submitted in the past, or is being, or is to be submitted for a degree at this University or at any other university. except as stated below. Signature: iii Acknowledgements Many people have contributed to this lengthy process. The most important are my supervisor, Anton Eberhard for his intellectual guidance, and for insightfully sharing his experiences in the world of energy policy, and my wife Jane, for her long-standing support and encouragement. I am also especially grateful to Shireen Arnold, Professor Eberhard’s assistant, for all kinds of practical help, to Brian Marquard and Stephen Marquard for undertaking the unenviable task of proofreading, Alixe Lowenherz for providing indispensable help in the final production, and to many friends, particularly Cathal, Mary and Craig for providing consistent encouragement. I am also especially grateful to all those who consented to be interviewed, without which this work would not have been possible, and to others who provided insight, assistance and information, including Alexandra Hofmänner, George Tatham and Phillip Lloyd. A special mention needs to be made of the librarians at the Government Publications department of the University of Cape Town’s library, who were the most helpful and knowledgeable librarians that I have come across. Finally, I wish to thank Duma Nkosi, Ronald Mofokeng, Mbulelo Goniwe and other ANC members of the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Minerals and Energy in 2001-2002; my time spent working as a parliamentary researcher gave me an invaluable insight into the policy environment I could not have got elsewhere, and to Fay Shabodien for, amongst other things, introducing me to the world of practical policymaking. Financial support for the writing of this thesis was received from both Foundation for Research Development (now the National Research Foundation) and the Energy and Development Research Centre (now part of the Energy Research Centre) at UCT, for which I am very grateful. iv UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN Abstract What are the main features of the development of South African energy policy, what were the factors which determined policy outcomes, and what is its potential for the future? The study below uses a combination of three theoretical approaches (networks, multiple streams, and institutional/organisational theory) to approach these questions, combined with a model of energy policy development to situate the development of South African energy policy and its associated institutions in a broader context. The model is useful both as a way of classifying and comparing various energy policy regimes, and also because it has some predictive power: it associates certain energy policy ‘paradigms’ with certain policy capabilities. Following a review of the theoretical frameworks and an outline of the model, the study recounts a detailed history of the four main areas of energy policy activity, namely coal policy, electricity policy, nuclear policy and liquid fuels policy, followed by an account of the development of energy policy activity and institutions in government, and an analysis of the main policy and institutional developments in each case. A variety of sources were used, including official documents, interviews, media reports and secondary sources. The outcome of the study was that the development of energy policy in South Africa was significantly influenced by two factors: apartheid, and the structure of the South African energy system. Although there are a number of significant discontinuities between apartheid-era and post-apartheid energy policy, notably in the social and institutional dimensions, there are other underlying continuities which are more deeply related to the structure of the South African energy system, and which contribute to the frustration of current energy policy initiatives. Thus, in order to tackle problems such as energy poverty and global warming successfully, future energy policymakers will have to consider measures which address the structure of the energy system itself, as predicted by the model. v Table of Contents Acknowledgements....................................................................................................... iv Abstract ......................................................................................................................... v List of Figures ............................................................................................................... viii Abbreviations and Units of Measure ............................................................................ x Organisational Affiliation of Interviewees ................................................................... xv 0 – Introduction................................................................................................................... 1 1 – Theoretical Frameworks ............................................................................................... 6 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 6 Concepts and Definitions ........................................................................................................... 10 Policy Networks and Complex Policy Spaces............................................................................ 14 Typology of Policy Networks .................................................................................................................................... 17 The Origins and Sustainability of Policy Communities............................................................................................. 18 Policy Consensus, Policy Paradigms and Policy Change........................................................................................ 20 Complex Policy Structures ....................................................................................................................................... 23 Policy and Politics ...................................................................................................................... 23 ‘Multiple Streams’: Problems, Policy Alternatives and Politics................................................................................. 24 ‘Policy Windows’, ‘Coupling’ and Policy Change...................................................................................................... 28 Ideas and Politics ..................................................................................................................................................... 29 Organisational and Institutional Factors..................................................................................... 31 Institutional Capacity and Change............................................................................................................................ 31 Organisations and Policy Change............................................................................................................................ 33 Conclusion.................................................................................................................................. 37 2 – The Structure and Context of South African and International Energy Policy ............ 40 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 40 The Energy Concept .................................................................................................................. 41 The Emergence and Development of Energy Policy ................................................................. 42 The Development of Proto-Energy Policy ................................................................................................................ 42 The Inauguration of Energy Policy ........................................................................................................................... 45 The 1973 Oil Crisis and the Broadening of Energy Policy ....................................................................................... 48 Energy Policy Paradigms ........................................................................................................... 54 Defining Energy Policy Paradigms........................................................................................................................... 55 Classification of Concrete Energy Policy Paradigms ............................................................................................... 62 The Development of the South African Energy System............................................................. 64 3 – The Development of South African Coal Policy .......................................................... 72 Overview....................................................................................................................................

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