Institute for Security Studies African Security Review African Security Review vol 17 no 4 December 2008 2008 Editor Deane-Peter Baker Editorial Board Festus Aboagye Hiruy Amanuel Annie Chikwanha Jakkie Cilliers Anton du Plessis Peter Edupo Peter Gastrow Charles Goredema Paul-Simon Handy Guy Lamb Len le Roux Prince Mashele Kenneth Mpyisi Augusta Muchai Naison Ngoma Hennie van Vuuren Abstracts v Features Zimbabwe’s 2008 elections and their implications for Africa 2 Simon Badza Chinese arms destined for Zimbabwe over South African territory: The R2P norm and the role of civil society 17 Max du Plessis Elections and confl ict resolution: The West African experience 30 Ismaila Madior Fall The implementation of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance 43 Ibrahima Kane ‘God willing, I will be back’: Gauging the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s capacity to deter economic crimes in Liberia 64 Rosalia de la Cruz Gitau Africa Watch Angola’s legislative elections: Time to deliver on peace dividends 80 Paula Cristina Roque Stabilising the Eastern DRC 84 Henri Boshoff CONTENTS Essays The conundrum of conditions for intervention under article 4(h) of the African Union Act 90 Dan Kuwali Terror in the backyard: Domestic terrorism in Africa and its impact on human rights 112 Cephas Lumina Nuclear Africa: Weapons, power and proliferation 133 Gavin Cawthra and Bjoern Moeller Complementarity and Africa: The promises and problems of international criminal justice 154 Max du Plessis Commentaries Kenya: After the crisis, lessons abandoned 172 Richard Barno Women hold up half the sky: Peace and security lessons from Liberia 178 Katja Svensson Spies for hire and information peddlers: A new threat to security in Africa? 184 Lauren Hutton Vis pacem …? 191 Richard Cornwell Book Review Annual review of global peace operations 2008 196 Genocide: A comprehensive introduction 200 Adam Jones Abstracts ABSTRACTS Features Zimbabwe’s 2008 elections and their implications for Africa Simon Badza Using Zimbabwe’s recent harmonised elections as an example, this paper argues that instead of being the necessary or ideal democratic tools for non-violent positive political transition in most young democracies of Africa, elections can be manipulated to prevent changes to an undesirable status quo. This is most likely if some strategic state institutions perceive their deeply entrenched positions and interests to be threatened by such necessary changes. It also argues that the harmonised elections have divided the Zimbabwean society, SADC, the African Union and the United Nations. Lastly, it also argues that fl awed elections undermine prospects for democratic transition and consolidation in SADC and Africa. The SADC Principles and Guidelines are regarded vi African Security Review 17.4 Institute for Security Studies as the key criteria for evaluating the harmonised elections. The paper recommends that credible democratic elections are the only viable solution to Zimbabwe’s current crises. Chinese arms destined for Zimbabwe over South African territory: The R2P norm and the role of civil society Max du Plessis This paper discusses the recent litigation initiated by civil society groups involving a Chinese vessel which attempted to discharge a consignment of arms in Durban destined for the government of Zimbabwe. The author considers the litigation as an example of the emerging norm of the ‘responsibility to protect’ which has recently been developed within the United Nations, and he argues that the decision by the South African government to grant a permit for the transport of the arms over South African territory for Zimbabwe offended against the responsibility to protect (R2P) norm. Elections and confl ict resolution: The West African experience Ismaila Madior Fall The battle for democracy on the African continent has been long and arduous. In many African countries the absence of democracy was fi rst experienced as political authoritarianism, enforced by quickly constituted regimes mostly characterised by their totalitarianism; their intent was to dominate practically the whole lives of their citizens, and not to tolerate any serious opposition to their aims and objectives. Under the pretext of needing to build fl edgling nations, or to foster social and economic development, the political powers in charge showed little respect for civil liberties or the right to object. The seriousness of elections and their role in confl icts – and thus confl ict resolution – in West Africa, can only be understood against the background of the role of elections as a primary source of confl ict within these states. This paper outlines and explores that background. The implementation of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance Ibrahima Kane Since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of Eastern Europe’s totalitarian regimes, a consensus seems to have emerged, worldwide, for the introduction of new standards into international standards, commonly called ‘democratic clauses’. The aim of these clauses is to promote the emergence of and contribute to the development of states based on respect for certain democratic principles in the world, particularly in Africa. However, the impact of these standards and principles seems to have been relatively limited. As a continent which, in 45 years, has experienced almost 85 coups d’état, as well as one-party regimes, states hooked into the ‘sacrosanct’ principle of non-interference in internal Abstracts vii affairs, dictatorships known as among the worst in the world, and which was the theatre, between 1963 and 1998, of nearly 26 armed confl icts which affected about 61 per cent of its population, Africa urgently needed to call on these standards and principles in order to promote the return to peace, security and stability in certain of its regions. ‘God willing, I will be back’: Gauging the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s capacity to deter economic crimes in Liberia Rosalia de la Cruz Gitau Liberia’s civil confl ict spanned over two decades, causing incalculable damage in its wake. In 2005 the Government of Liberia established a truth and reconciliation commission (TRC) to address crimes committed during the war, to act as the sole adjudicator of war crimes in Liberia. It is the fi rst TRC in the world with a mandate to prosecute economic crimes. Hence, the success of the TRC greatly affects prospects for peace in Liberia, and approaches to transitional justice the world over. However, several factors seriously threaten the effi cacy of the TRC, including a weak legal framework for addressing economic crimes, internal power struggles at the TRC, lack of resources, and exclusion of public participation in the TRC process. The author argues that economic crimes are a principal cause of Liberia’s civil confl ict, and that post-confl ict efforts aimed at addressing these crimes are insuffi cient. She also discusses the administrative impediments that prevent the TRC from effectively deterring the commission of economic crimes. The author concludes by offering recommendations to the TRC that will strengthen its capacity to execute its mandate. Essays The conundrum of conditions for intervention under article 4(h) of the African Union Act Dan Kuwali The defi nition of the AU right of intervention, in its present formulation, is problematic and implementation is contentious. The question of how to determine the ‘deterioration’ threshold after which a situation ceases to be a matter essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of a state has not yet been settled. The various thresholds for intervention in article 4(h) are subjective given that the justice of warfare is such that one side’s heroes are regarded as the other side’s war criminals; there is still a lack of consensus on what constitutes genocide; and it is debatable if intervention, which is invariably reactive, would be effective in bringing perpetrators of crimes against humanity to justice. The AU right of intervention is potentially a pro-sovereign doctrine with the aim of reinforcing states’ responsibility to exercise their sovereignty. To realise this intention viii African Security Review 17.4 Institute for Security Studies of the framers of the AU Act, there is a need to broaden the defi nition of the thresholds for purposes of intervention – or to put it starkly, prevention – while maintaining the international defi nitions for purposes of prosecutions. Terror in the backyard: Domestic terrorism in Africa and its impact on human rights Cephas Lumina Although Africa has a long history of terrorism and a number of countries continue to experience acts of terrorism particularly in the context of confl ict, scant attention has been paid to its impact on human rights. This paper seeks to contribute to an understanding of the impact of domestic – rather than international – terrorism on human rights in Africa. The article has a dual focus. First, it provides a brief overview of the human rights impact of acts of domestic terrorism in Africa and second, it examines state responses to domestic terrorism with the aim of assessing the implications of these responses for human rights. Nuclear Africa: Weapons, power and proliferation Gavin Cawthra and Bjoern Moeller This paper examines the rather limited African experience of nuclear weapons, and the implications of global nuclear weapon possession and proliferation – and responses against it – for Africa. Because there is a contingent, but not necessary, relationship between civil nuclear power and nuclear weapons, it also touches on civil nuclear issues in Africa, and the implications of uranium production. Since the only country in Africa that has actually developed both nuclear energy and nuclear weapons is South Africa, much of the focus is on that country. As a result of its prowess in this fi eld, South Africa also inevitably leads African diplomacy on nuclear governance issues. Before turning to African implications, however, it is necessary to contextualise these issues in the global framework. Complementarity and Africa: The promises and problems of international criminal justice Max du Plessis The idea of an International Criminal Court (ICC) has captured the legal imagination for well over a century.