APPENDIX 1

Tourist Visitor Demand for the Ullapool-Stornoway Ferry Route and Potential Impacts from a Second Summer Ferry

The 2018 Summer Timetable Change

CalMac’s summer 2018 timetable was released on the 1st of November 2017. It shows two return crossings per day for the Ullapool-Stornoway ferry, which is an increase of one return crossing on a Sunday from the original 2017 timetable. However, during the peak summer months from the end of June to early September, there were already two crossings on a Sunday in 2017, so this overall increase in capacity (of 7.7%) will only occur outwith the peak months – i.e. in April, May, June, September and October.

Also, in 2017, there were three extra crossings in August to relieve pressure on Saturday nights. These were on the 5th, 12th and 19th, although this service arrived in Stornoway after 3am and wouldn’t have been an attractive option for many visitors to the Outer Hebrides.

Capacity Constraints Increasing Over Time

Along with increasing demand for deck space, there has also been a trend towards longer cars and more LGVs that affects overall deck capacity for cars carrying tourist visitors. Transport Scotland’s Vessel Replacement and Deployment Plan discusses these issues:

 Increasing car sizes are continuing to have an impact on the number of vehicles which the CHFS vessels can convey. As an example vessels which were constructed in the 1980’s were designed to accommodate cars from that era. Based on today’s average car dimensions, the older vessels’ effective car capacity, by number, is up to 20% less than it was originally. As well as car lengths and widths increasing, weights are also increasing. This increase in weight manifests itself when cars are stowed on vessel mezzanine decks. In order that safe working limits are not exceeded the number of cars stowed on the mezzanine decks of the older vessels may be reduced.

 The full roll-out of RET across the CHFS network has resulted in a change of vehicle choice for many small commercial operators and tradesmen. The commercial attractiveness (i.e. fare price and the lifting of previous 5 metre length threshold to 6 metres) of a Light Goods Vehicle (LGV) as opposed to a small Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) has resulted in a number of customers switching to LGVs. This transition from HGVs to LGVs will continue for a few years as operators gradually replace their vehicles. The impact of this change in customer behaviour affects the data recorded in current business information systems. HGV activity is recorded as commercial vehicles (CV) whilst LGV activity is recorded as cars. This change in classification makes it more difficult to identify the trends associated with LGV’s as they are now collated with cars. As LGV’s are larger than cars, the effect of this is to understate the actual capacity utilisation. CFL is reviewing other data sources to assist with the analysis of this changing behaviour.

A further trend, reducing capacity for tourist cars, is the increase in tourist campervans, which often have two occupants but are longer than cars that might have 3-4 occupants.

1 2 Summary of Carrying Statistics

For this review, CalMac provided monthly carrying statistics per vessel per route between October 2012 and September 2017. Figures were analysed for the Outer Hebrides as a whole and the Stornoway to Ullapool route, per vehicle type and focusing just on the summer season, when full capacity is often reached. Figures were provided for passengers and vehicles landed and shipped, although our analysis focuses on passenger numbers.

For all routes, there was a clear distinction in the volumes of traffic in the summer period (April – October) and the winter period (November – March). For 2017, with figures not yet available for October 2017, the figure for October 2016 was used to give a full season.

All Routes Serving the Outer Hebrides

Annual Capacity

Ferry traffic has increased for all CalMac routes and for all vehicle types over the period 2012-2017, as shown in Chart 1 below.

Chart 1 Annual Carrying Statistics by Vehicle Type, 2012/2013 – 2016/17

Total passenger numbers increased by 17.5% over the period, from 470,000 in 2012/2013 to 553,000 in 2016/2017. The total number of cars and coaches transported increased by 25.1% and 29.5% respectively over the period, and the number of commercial vehicles increased by 6.0%.

3 Excluding commercial vehicles, the number of occupants per car or coach (although there is no differentiation in CalMac’s statistics between foot passengers and people travelling in a vehicle) decreased from 2.93 to 2.75 over the period, suggesting that there has been a trend towards lower vehicle capacity or lower numbers of foot passengers. As there is no differentiation between foot passengers and passengers travelling in a vehicle, it isn’t possible to tell whether there has been a decrease in foot passengers, or a decrease in the number of passengers per vehicle, or both.

Summer Capacity

Chart 2 shows summer carrying statistics by vehicle type between 2013 and 2017.

Chart 2 Summer Carrying Statistics by Vehicle Type, Summer 2013 – Summer 2017

Passenger and vehicle carryings increased at a greater pace in the summer months than annually. Total passenger carryings increased from 369,000 in Summer 2013 to 445,000 in Summer 2017 (+20.8%). Total car carryings increased by 28%, total coaches carryings increased by 26.8%, and total commercial vehicles carryings increased by 7.7%.

According to official mid year population estimates, the population of the Outer Hebrides decreased by 2.4% between 2012 and 2016. Ferry carryings have however increased in the winter months, and there is therefore a trend towards residents travelling more frequently and/or increased visitor numbers in the winter. Overall, passenger numbers increased by 5.2% between winter 2012/13 and 2016/17, total cars transported increased by 15.1%, total coaches by 15.2%, and total commercial vehicles by 5.0%. Overall, nevertheless, traffic is considerably higher in the summer months, with an average of 78,290 passenger and vehicle movements per month in the summer and 29,955 movements per month in the winter months.

4 As noted above, in summer 2017 CalMac added late night sailings on three Saturday nights during August in order to address “unprecedented demand on the route”, on a pilot basis.1 These sailings arrived into Stornoway after 3am in the morning, and were therefore unlikely to be appealing to tourist visitors.

Stornoway-Ullapool

The figures in this section relate to the Stornoway to Ullapool route, the only route served by these ports. MV Loch Seaforth replaced MV Isle of Lewis as the main ferry on the route in 2015, giving additional capacity. In 2015, however, the MV Isle of Lewis remained on the route, providing additional capacity at peak times. The freight ferries (MV Muirneag replaced by MS Clipper Ranger in 2013) were also replaced by the MV Loch Seaforth.

During both summer and winter months, the timetable includes two return journeys per day, Monday to Saturday, with one return journey on a Sunday. During the peak summer months from the end of June to early September, this increased to two return journeys on a Sunday in 2017.

The Stornoway to Ullapool route carries the most passengers of all of the routes serving the Outer Hebrides, with 1.2 million passengers between October 2012 and September 2017. Almost half (48.9%) of all passengers travelling to or from the Outer Hebrides used this route. In summer 2017, 216,000 passengers used the route (an average of 31,000 per month), compared to 64,000 in winter 2016/17 (an average of 13,000 per month).

Chart 3 below shows the total number of passengers and vehicles on the Stornoway – Ullapool route between summer 2013 and summer 2017.

Chart 3 Summer Carrying Statistics by Vehicle Type, Stornoway-Ullapool, Summer 2013-Summer 2017

1 https://www.calmac.co.uk/calmac.co.uk/additional-Saturday-Stornoway-Ullapool-Sailings

5 Focusing on the number of vehicles per crossing in the peak months of July and August, there have been an average of 112.2 cars per crossing, 0.6 buses and 10.5 commercial vehicles. Assuming that buses and commercial vehicles are three times the length of a car (although some commercial vehicles would be smaller vans), there would be an equivalent of 145.5 car lengths per crossing. As the capacity of the MV Loch Seaforth is 143 cars2, we can assume that the ferry has run at maximum or near maximum capacity during these peak months. The unmet demand of people wishing but unable to travel will have been significant.

Between 2015 (when the new, larger capacity ferry was introduced) and 2017 (using 2016 figures for October, November and December), passenger numbers increased by 18.9%, cars increased by 25.8%, coaches increased by 19.5% and commercial vehicles increased by 6.9%. Given that the maximum capacity of the MV Loch Seaforth was reached in July and August 2017 (and was an estimated average 88.3% in June and September 2017), considerable demand is also likely to be unfulfilled in coming years.

In 2018, assuming that the annual growth in demand continues at the same rate as between 2015 and 2017, 2,056 cars, 9 coaches and 337 commercial vehicles would not be able to travel in the months of July and August (in addition to the vehicles not able to be accommodated in 2017). Maximum capacity would also be reached during the months of June and September in 2019, should current growth trends continue (taking into account the extra sailing on a Sunday scheduled for 2018 onwards).

Tourism Trends in Scotland

Scotland

Figures from VisitScotland indicate that the number of trips to Scotland by overseas visitors increased from 2,592,000 in 2015 to 2,747,000 in 2016 (+6.0%), with an increase of spending from £1.7m to £1.85m (+9.1%). Comparing the first two quarters of 2017 with the same period in 2016 indicates a further rise of 14.0% in the number of overseas trips and 35.1% in spend in Scotland by these tourists. The drop in the value of sterling following the vote to leave the European Union in 2016 will have contributed significantly to the increase in visitors from overseas.

Visits to Scotland from domestic overnight visitors, however, decreased over the period, with domestic visits to Scotland decreasing from 12,000,000 in 2015 to 11,514,000 in 2016, and a further decrease of 14.5% between the first half of 2017 and the same period in 2016. The spend by these visitors decreased by 15.9% in the first 6 months of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016. These decreases follow increases since the recession, but are concerning for Scottish tourism.

The Highlands and Islands

Figures for the Highlands and Islands also show an increase in the number of overseas visitors between 2015 and 2016 (+0.8%, from 591,000 to 596,000) and a decrease in the number of domestic visitors (-3.8%, from 1,929,000 to 1,855,000). Overseas spend figures however increased, from £242m in 2015 to £286m in 2016. Early figures for visits to Historic Environment Scotland sites in Highland (and Scotland) for 2017 show encouragingly strong growth and this should be reasonably

2 https://www.calmac.co.uk/press/cmal-launch-mv-loch-seaforth

6 representative of all tourist visits in 2017, with reports in places such as Inverness of people not being able to find accommodation. The Outer Hebrides

VisitScotland Figures

Figures for the Outer Hebrides are not available for 2016, but figures for 2015 show that there were 118,000 domestic tourist trips (with a total spend of £37m). To the three island local authority areas (Comhairle nan Eilean Siar, Orkney and Shetland), there were 219,000 visits by overseas visitors (with a total spend of £73m), around two thirds of which might relate to the Outer Hebrides.

In the year, there were 118,000 domestic tourist trips to the Outer Hebrides, which amounted to 66.3% of total visits to the three island groups, and applying that figure to the 219,000 overseas trips to the Islands in 2015, gives an estimate of 145,000 overseas visitors to the Outer Hebrides, and an overall total of 263,000 visits from Great Britain and overseas in 2015.

Taking a longer term perspective, there were an estimated 153,000 visits to the Outer Hebrides in 20093, which comprised 80,000 domestic visitors and 73,000 international visitors. Therefore the increase between 2009 and 2015 was 72% over the 6 year period.

Chart 4 Domestic and Overseas Trips, % change from 2012, Scotland, the Highlands and Islands, the Island Authority Areas and the Outer Hebrides

Source: VisitScotland Notes: Figures for 2016 for overseas visits to the Islands and domestic visits to the Outer Hebrides are not available

3 Tourism in Northern Scotland 2009, VisitScotland

7 As shown by the darker lines, growth in trips from overseas visitors grew for Scotland, the Highlands and Islands and the Islands between 2012 and 2015/16, with overseas visits to the Islands increasing the most, by 40.4% between 2012 and 2015. Domestic visits to the Outer Hebrides increased by 7.3% between 2012 and 2016, which contrasts with declines of 6.0% and 9.8% to Scotland and the Highlands and Islands respectively over the period.

Cruise ship visitors from outside the UK are unlikely to be identified in the International Passenger Survey, and these figures will therefore underestimate total visitor numbers, which, as shown above, have increased in recent years before adding cruise passengers.

The Islands Visitor Survey, 2012-2013

The survey estimated 218,196 visitors to the islands in 2013, with a total spend of £53.6m. Holidaymakers constituted the largest proportion of visitors (58.8%), followed by those visiting friends and relatives (22.2%), and those on business (19.0%).

Ferries

By examining the difference in the number of passengers arriving by ferry in the winter months, adjusted for visitors to the Outer Hebrides, and comparing that to the number of landed passengers in the summer months, we can estimate (very approximately) the total number of tourists visiting the islands by ferry over the year.

Winter

Table 1 Landed Passengers in Winter 2016/2017 Total number of landed passengers – Winter 2016/17 54,176 Average number of landed passengers per month 10,835

As there were an estimated 26,900 residents living in the Outer Hebrides (NRS, 2016), it is unrealistic to assume that 40% of residents travel to the mainland every month. Therefore, a considerable number of winter trips will be made by business visitors, tourists, or those visiting friends and relatives.

If we assume that 20% of residents travel to the mainland by ferry each month during the winter (5,380 trips), there will have been 5,455 visitor trips to the islands per month during the winter.

Table 2 Breakdown of Resident and Visitor Trips, Winter 2016/2017

Total resident trips – Winter 2016/17 26,900 Total visitor trips – Winter 2016/17 27,275

Summer

Table 3 Landed Passengers in Summer 2017 Total number of landed passengers – Summer 2017 223,574

8 Average number of landed passengers per month 31,939

We can assume that residents are more likely to travel during the summer months, due to summer holidays, trips abroad, etc, and we have assumed that 25% of residents travel to the mainland by ferry each month during the summer (6,725 trips per month) Table 4 Breakdown of Resident and Visitor Trips, Summer 2017 Total resident trips – Summer 2017 47,075 Total visitor trips – Summer 2017 176,499

There were therefore an estimated 203,774 visitors to the Outer Hebrides arriving by ferry in 2016/2017 (including business visitors and people visiting friends and relatives). Air Travel

Table 1.1 below shows passenger numbers on flights to and from Outer Hebrides airports in 2015/16 and 2016/17.

Table 5 Air Passenger numbers, 2015/16 and 2016/17

2015/16 2016/2017 % Change Barra 11,663 13,552 16.2 Benbecula 33,938 33,812 -0.4 Stornoway 129,609 130,905 1.0 Total 175,210 178,269 1.7 Source: HIAL Annual Report 2016/17

The Islands Visitor Survey 2012-2013 found that 78% of visitors to the islands arrived by ferry, and 19% arrived by air, with 2% using a combination of air and ferry. If we assume that 203,774 passengers arrived by ferry, using this same ratio we can assume that 57,475 arrived by air, or by other means (see leisure boats, below).

This is considered conservative given the total number of 178,269 passenger movements through the Outer Hebrides airports in 2016/2017. This equates to 89,134 return flights, 32% of which were by visitors, and 68% of which were by residents. Therefore, up to 22% of Outer Hebrides residents are estimated to fly to the mainland an average of once per month (with a relatively small number of residents travelling between Benbecula and Stornoway).

Leisure Boats

With the growing popularity of sailing and new marinas in Lochboisdale and Lochmaddy, leisure boat visitors to the Outer Hebrides are likely to have been increasing. The biennial St Kilda Challenge, launched in 2016, has also been instrumental in increasing awareness among sailors about the attractiveness of the Outer Hebrides as a sailing destination.

Sailing Tourism in Scotland estimates that there were 101,343 visiting boat nights in the West of Scotland (including the Outer Hebrides, the Inner Hebrides, and the west coast mainland from Gairloch to South Kintyre) in 2016. The total expenditure from these visiting boats is estimated at £12.4m.

9 Total visitor numbers to the Outer Hebrides are therefore estimated at 261,249 in 2016/17 (excluding cruise boat visitors). This is similar to the figure of 263,000 estimated for 2015 from VisitScotland figures above, although the two figures are not directly comparable due to different methodologies.

Visitor Attractions

Visits to tourism attractions give a good indication of overall visitor trends. Figures were first provided for An Lanntair (the arts centre in Stornoway) in 2014, and there was an increase of 11.8% between 2014 and 2016 to 223,684. Visitor numbers to the visitor centre at the Calanais standing stones increased by 30.7% between 2012 and 2016 (to 47,964), an average annual increase of 7.7%.

The Moffat Centre’s Visitor Attraction Monitor provides visitor numbers for 14 sites across the Outer Hebrides. Overall, the number of people visiting these attractions increased by 22.9% between 2015 and 2016 from 369,876 to 454,592, although the scale of this large increase in visitor numbers could be accounted for by new attractions (Lews Castle and Museum, and the Isle of Harris Distillers Ltd, which opened in 2016 and late 2015 respectively). Their visitor numbers are included in the overall total, but for confidentiality reasons are not attributed, and neither is the breakdown of their figures provided. Excluding these two attractions, visitor numbers to attractions in the Outer Hebrides increased by 6.1%, and visitor numbers to attractions in Lewis increased by 4.7%.

Chart 5 Quarterly Visit Patterns to Orkney, Shetland and the Outer Hebrides, 2016

Source: Moffat Centre for Travel and Business Development, Glasgow Caledonian University 2017

As shown above, a greater proportion of visits (around 55%) occur in the peak months of July to September in the Outer Hebrides compared to Orkney, Shetland and Scotland as a whole.

Visitor numbers are not, however, collected for some of the most popular destinations in the islands, such as Luskentyre beach (Harris), St Clement's Church (Harris), and Carloway Broch (Lewis), which

10 are all in TripAdvisor’s top 5 things to do in the Outer Hebrides. As shown in the Islands Visitor Survey 2012-2013, 50% of people come to the Outer Hebrides for the scenery/landscape, and therefore a considerable proportion of visitors may not be recorded as visiting an attraction.

Visitors to attractions on Skye increased by 9.5% between 2015 and 2016 ( fuelled by an increase in visitor numbers to Dunvegan Castle and Gardens) and visits to attractions in Highland increased by 13.2% over the same period. The lower increase (6.1%) in visitor numbers to the Outer Hebrides will at least in part be due to the difficulties faced by travellers in getting a ferry to the islands at a suitable time for them. Summary of CalMac’s Summer 2018 Timetable Consultation

When asked, “Do you have any suggestions to amend/improve the current timetable?”, 9 of the 17 comments on the Stornoway to Ullapool route mentioned capacity constraints. Comments included:

 Another ferry run is needed in the summer months. In peak months there are many holiday houses available and no ferry places.

 2 ferries sailing this route during the peak season or round the clock sailing.

 An additional boat, a standby boat, to do some additional runs as two years ago with the Isle of Lewis.

 More frequent sailings on days and at times travellers wish to travel. Vessel far too small to accommodate passengers comfortably during summer months with frequent complaints from locals and visitors alike that they cannot find enough seating for such a long crossing.

There were also comments suggesting that the freight only sailings should be available to book for all.

When asked “did you have any guests cancel their bookings because they could not get on the ferry?” of the businesses that the question was applicable to, 61% answered yes4. Responses included:

 Every single season!! Numerous times every season guests have to either arrive a day late or leave a day earlier as they cannot get on ferry. This causes huge problems and a reduction in income for my business as guests then expect us to provide a discount due to this problem with Calmac, not to mention it clouds their judgement about travelling to the Outer Hebrides and affects reviews on Trip Advisor for my business. Also, numerous times we have sold a cancellation or a late availability week only to have the guest then have to cancel booking or not proceed as they cannot travel on ferry. Beyond infuriating!

 We had 18 houses with available weeks at the end of May this year and in August which cannot be booked out because all the ferries are full.

 This is a constant problem and is getting worse every year.

4 This is all respondents across the Outer Hebrides

11  Many times. Bands cancelling gigs. Having to make up scratch bands for weddings/events. Teachers at Feis's not getting here. Hotel and B&B rooms constantly cancelled. This is strangling these islands especially Uist and South Uist in particular. It’s making the place unattractive to live and work in thus contributing in part to depopulation.

 This does happen. But really the problem is unquantifiable by us as guests generally try and find ferry crossings first before accommodation.

As mentioned by the final respondent, many travellers will not approach accommodation providers if they can’t find a ferry crossing that works for their travel plans, and therefore true unmet demand is unquantifiable. Summary of the Vessel Replacement Deployment Plan, 2016

The Vessel Replacement Deployment Plan was published by Transport Scotland and covers routes and services proposals, capacity and demand analysis, and the need to replace vessels as they reach the end of their working life.

Estimates of unconstrained demand for each of the communities served by CalMac were prepared by Reference Economic Consultants in 2016. Traffic types included were passengers, cars, coaches and commercial vehicles, and the analysis covered the period 2015 to 2040. Table 1.2 below shows actual or forecast average vehicle deck utilisation during July and August for routes in the Outer Hebrides up to 2021 (no analysis was undertaken on the Oban-Castlebay/Lochboisdale route due to route restructuring).

Table 6 July and August Capacity Utilisation

Peak 9 weeks capacity Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast utilisation (July & 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 August) Ullapool-Stornoway 62% 71% 72% 74% 75% 77% 78% Uig- 71% 75% 76% 78% 68% 69% 71% Tarbert/Lochmaddy* Barra-Eriskay 48% 57% 58% 59% 60% 62% 63% Berneray-Leverburgh 63% 71% 72% 74% 75% 77% 78% Note: A new 100m vessel is planned to be deployed on the Uig triangle in 2019, resulting in the forecast drop in utilisation levels from 78% in 2018 to 68% in 2019.

The numbers shown above are the average weekly capacity utilisation percentages across the 9 peak weeks that cover July and August. Capacity utilisation above 70% means that full sailings are a regular occurrence, and an increasingly significant number of customers choose not to travel as alternative sailing times are not suitable for them. In some cases, customers may displace to another route if an alternative is available.

Capacity utilisation was forecast to increase significantly between 2015 and 2016, due to a reduction in capacity as the MV Isle of Lewis (which had provided additional peak time sailings in 2015) was redeployed to the Oban-Castlebay service, as well as due to the forecast increase in demand. The report states that the “forecast growth in demand in the medium-long term will require an increase in capacity to maintain utilisation at optimal levels.”

12 Summary of the Ferry Availability Review, April – October 2016

A review of ferry booking availability was conducted by Donald MacArthur and Graham MacLennan in a report produced for HITRANS, Argyll & Bute Council, Comhairle Nan Eilean Siar & Outer Hebrides Tourism. They have been monitoring the availability to book a car online on various routes since 2011, and their most recent report (Ferry Availability Review, April-October 2016) covers the Outer Hebrides, Coll, Tiree, Mull and Islay.

Data was collected by interrogating the CalMac online booking system daily for each sailing covered in the study. All remaining sailings from the day of assessment through to the end of October were checked. Sailings that appeared N/A (not available) on the system were noted on a master spreadsheet The study covered sailings that were:

 UTBO (Unavailable to book online by day of sailing)  NDSFO (Number of days a sailing is full online prior to departure)  DASFO (Days all sailings are full online prior to departure)

Results for the Ullapool-Stornoway Route

Chart 6 Ullapool-Stornoway route, UTBO (Unavailable to book online), by month, % of sailings, 2014- 2016

As shown in chart 2.1, July is the peak month for departures that were UTBO, with over half of the ferries UTBO in July 2016, and with the problem worsening between 2015 and 2016.

The methodology used in this report may underestimate the number of full ferries as “unavailable to book online by day of sailing” implies that the system is checked prior to the day of sailing, and therefore will not capture sailings that fill up on the day of departure.

Table 7 % DASFO (Days all Sailings Full Online), June to August 2016

2014 2015 2016 % DASFO 62% 38% 42%

13 It was not possible to book a car on the crossing for 42% of days between June and August 2016 (approximately 39 days). This has increased since 2015, although the increased capacity of the new ferry reduced the number of days that all sailings were full online between 2014 and 2015.

Chart 7 Ullapool-Stornoway Route 2016/2015 Number of days sailings were full online prior to departure5

Sailings in July were full online a total of 388 days before departure. On average, this equates to the sailing being fully booked 6.2 days prior to departure, per UTBO sailing.

Accommodation Availability

When planning a trip to the Outer Hebrides, visitors will seek to book both accommodation and travel and are unlikely to book their trip unless both are available.

Table 8 Occupancy (%) by Accommodation Type, Outer Hebrides, July and August 2016

Guests Houses Hotels Self-Catering and B&Bs July 83 69 91 August 80 61 91 Source: Scottish Accommodation Occupancy Survey, 2016

5 The number of days sailings were full prior to departure refers to the sum of all days that each UTBO sailing was full prior to departure. For example, if there are two sailings per day and they were both fully booked 7 days before departure, the number of days sailings were full prior to departure for those two sailings would be 14.

14 In 2016, occupancy levels were high, but accommodation establishments were not completely full. However, visitors looking to stay in a specific location, book a longer stay or plan a trip where they visit several locations are likely to have had difficulties and therefore not booked the trip.

Over time, if visitor numbers were able to increase through improved ferry provision, accommodation providers taken together (including new establishments) would be expected to increase their capacity to meet the added demand. Residents letting out their rooms to visitors through sites such as Airbnb is also likely to increase, which would add capacity during the peak summer months.

Visitor Number Projections

The current proposed timetable for 2018 has one vessel making two return trips per day, every day of the week. During the day, there is a turnaround in each port of 1 hour.

The only way to increase capacity with one ferry would be to add a third crossing per day, however the timings of these would be inconvenient for most travellers. In summer 2017, as noted above, CalMac added a third crossing per day for three Saturday nights in August. The departure time was at 2200 from Stornoway, and the departure from Ullapool was at 0045. With arrival time of 0315 into Stornoway, visitors would then be faced with trying to get to their accommodation in the middle of the night (or staying up all night), an option likely to have been appealing to few.

Having a second ferry on the route for the peak months of July and August would solve the capacity issue in these months by doubling the capacity available. For the following scenario, we have assumed a second ferry (with the same capacity as the current vessel, the MV Loch Seaforth) also making two return journeys per day during the peak months of July and August.

This option is compared to the baseline (one ferry making two return trips per day during July and August, with three extra sailings on Saturday nights to relieve pressure).

For this analysis, we have assumed that the numbers of coaches, commercial vehicles, and residents travelling in cars, will remain constant. In practice, these would be likely to increase to an extent once overall capacity constraints are lifted, although that increase has not been modelled.

When assessing deck capacity, coaches and commercial vehicles are converted into car equivalents (1 coach or commercial vehicle takes up the same space as three cars). Light goods vehicles are included as cars.

The analysis covers the 62 days of July and August.

The 2017 Baseline

In order to establish a baseline of how many visitors arrived in cars in July and August 2017, we reviewed the total number of cars landed in Stornoway and made an estimate for the number of those that might be island residents’ vehicles and the number that might be Light Goods Vehicles

15 (LGVs), as they are included in the figures for cars. The remainder was estimated to be visitors’ vehicles.

Table 9 Estimate of residents, LGVs and visitors, July and August 2017

Total No. of Estimate of Associated Estimate of Estimate of Cars Landed visitors’ visitor residents cars6 LGVs in Stornoway vehicles numbers July 2017 6,505 1,918 500 4,087 10,218 August 2017 5,780 1,918 500 3,362 8,405 Total 12,285 3,836 1,000 7,449 18,623 As deck capacity was an estimated 93% in July and August 2017, and we are assuming that the number of residents, LGVs, commercial vehicles and coaches will remain constant over time, then if the capacity does not increase, estimated visitor vehicle numbers will remain similar at around 7,550 cars during the summer months – representing 18,600 visitors, assuming 2.5 visitors per car.

Chart 8 Deck Utilisation, July and August, 2017

As we are focusing on the increase in holiday visitors, we allocated a proportion of total visitors to the three categories of holiday visitors, those visiting friends and relatives (VFR) and business visitors using VisitScotland figures.

In July and August 2017, a lower proportion of overall visitors will be business visitors (as they are likely to be on holiday themselves), and a higher proportion are likely to be holiday visitors. We therefore assumed that 85% of all visitors would be holiday visitors, 12% VFR and 3% business visitors.

Table 10 Breakdown of Visitor Numbers, July and August 2017

Estimate of Estimate of Estimate of Estimate of VFR visitors’ vehicles holiday visitors business visitors

6 This is based on a quarter of the 19,176 residents of Lewis arriving in Stornoway each month in July and August, and 2.5 residents per car.

16 July 2017 4,087 3,474 490 123 August 2017 3,362 2,858 403 101 Total 7,449 6,332 894 223

Unconstrained Demand

The figures for visitor numbers above do not include those who wished to travel, but were unable to book a ferry and therefore did not go ahead with their trip.

Although evidence is provided earlier in this report, no figures are recorded that would tell us the exact number of people who would have used the Ullapool-Stornoway route had there been no capacity constraint issues, and this number therefore needs to be estimated.

17 The Ferry Availability Review, April – October 2016 recorded that 52% of sailings in July 2016 and 31% of sailings in August 2016 were unavailable to book online on the Stornoway to Ullapool route (both ways), and 43% of sailings in July 2016 and 34% of sailings in August 2016 were unavailable to book online on the Stornoway to Ullapool route (one way). From that, we estimated the number unavailable to book online for just the Ullapool to Stornoway route.

Table 11 Number of Sailings Unavailable to Book Online, Ullapool to Stornoway

Total Sailings Number Unavailable to book online July 2016 62 38 August 2016 62 18

There were therefore 56 sailings that were unavailable to book online in July and August 2016. We have assumed that for each UTBO sailing, the demand by visitors would be half the number of visitors that normally travel on an average sailing in July and August 2016.

Looking at actual carrying figures for July and August 2016, the equivalent of 6,332 visitor cars were landed, which equates to 51 cars per sailing.

Therefore, we have assumed that for each UTBO sailing, there were an additional 25.5 visitor cars that would have travelled had a ferry been available. As shown in Table 11 below, this would allow an additional 3,570 visitors to travel the route (assuming 2.5 visitors per car).

Table 12 Estimated Additional Visitors and Cars

Number Estimated Estimated Total Sailings Unavailable to additional additional visitors book online visitors cars July 2016 62 38 969 2,423 August 2016 62 18 459 1,148 Total 124 56 1,428 3,570

Assuming a growth in demand of 3% between 2016 and 2017, therefore, the total unconstrained demand for the Ullapool to Stornoway route was 10,009 cars (25,022 visitors) in 2017.

Growth Scenarios

We show below, Low, Medium and High Growth Scenarios to provide a range of possible outcomes and impacts should an extra ferry be provided.

For modelling purposes, and to simplify, we assume that the existing ferry continues to run on full capacity, with the extra visitors being transported on the second ferry. The assumed capacity utilisation of the second ferry is given in the tables below, with the capacity of the first ferry assumed to continue at 93% (capacity in July and August 2017).

18 Low Growth Scenario

Assuming a growth rate of 3% per annum would give the following capacity figures to 2022.

Table 13 Low Growth Scenario

2017 2018* 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Number of Holiday 6,332 10,309 10,619 10,937 11,265 11,603 Visitor Cars Total Number of Holiday 15,830 25,773 26,546 27,343 28,163 29,008 Visitors Utilisation of the second - 22.4 24.2 26.0 27.8 29.7 ferry (%) Note: * It is assumed that the new ferry is deployed in 2018, and therefore there is a large increase between 2017 and 2018 as previously unmet demand in 2017 is met in 2018.

Medium Growth Scenario

Using the Islands Visitor Survey for 2012 visitor numbers and the 2015 VisitScotland statistics, the annual growth rate was 6.5% over the period. The following table shows what the number of holiday visitors would be if growth in demand was 6% per year to 2022.

Table 14 Medium Growth Scenario

2017 2018* 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Number of Holiday 6,332 10,610 11,246 11,921 12,636 13,394 Visitor Cars Total Number of Holiday 15,830 26,524 28,115 29,802 31,590 33,486 Visitors Utilisation of the second - 24.1 27.7 31.5 35.6 39.8 ferry (%)

High Growth Scenario

The High Growth Scenario looks at what the number of holiday visitors would be if the growth in demand was 9% per annum.

Table 15 High Growth Scenario

2017 2018* 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Number of Holiday 6,332 10,910 11,892 12,962 14,129 15,400 Visitor Cars Total Number of Holiday 15,830 27,275 29,729 32,405 35,321 38,500 Visitors Utilisation of the second - 25.8 31.4 37.4 44.0 51.1 ferry (%)

19 Factors in Achieving Passenger Growth

An additional ferry operating in July and August between Ullapool and Stornoway would not only serve potential visitors currently unable to book a holiday or leisure visit to the Outer Hebrides because of the current capacity constraint, but also increase demand through:

 People who would be able to visit who might previously have been able to book a suitable Ullapool to Stornoway ferry but not a suitable return journey (from Stornoway, Tarbert or Lochmaddy).

 Catering for a proportion of the people who have been unable to book a ferry to or from Uig and Tarbert or Lochmaddy who could switch to the Stornoway-Ullapool route.

 Giving people a wider range of choice across the day for trips from Ullapool to Stornoway and Stornoway to Ullapool. This might lead, in particular, to more short trips where people combine a visit to the northern Highlands with a trip to the Outer Hebrides.

 Providing capacity for more trips by business visitors and people visiting friends and relatives. This might lead to some displacement from air services.

 Encouraging additional accommodation provision in the Outer Hebrides and increased marketing to potential visitors to capitalise on the greater ferry capacity.

Spend Per Visitor

The Islands Visitor Survey 2012-2013 found an average spend per holiday visitor trip of £273, higher than those visiting friends and relatives (£145) and business visitors (£279). This figure of £273 (in 2013 prices) is considered low for the average of 6 days stay of a holiday visitor that we are assuming in this analysis.

VisitScotland figures for 2015 show that the 118,000 domestic visitors spent a total of £37m. That amounts to £314 per trip, and accounting for inflation, spend per trip in 2017 prices would be £328. Overseas visitors generally spend more, and therefore the overall figure we have used is £350 per trip.

Table 16 Total number of visitors, total number of additional visitors and their car, total additional spend (2017 prices)

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Low Growth Total number of additional visitors 9,943 10,716 11,513 12,333 13,178 Total additional visitor spend (£) 3,480,050 3,750,600 4,029,550 4,316,550 4,612,300 Medium Growth Total number of additional visitors 10,694 12,285 13,972 15,760 17,656 Total additional visitor spend (£) 3,742,900 4,299,750 4,890,200 5,516,000 6,179,600

20 High Growth Total number of additional visitors 11,445 13,899 16,575 19,491 22,670 Total additional visitor spend (£) 4,005,750 4,864,650 5,801,250 6,821,850 7,934,500 Additional Nights

VisitScotland figures found that in 2015, the average number of nights that domestic visitors stayed on the islands was 6 nights, and that the average number of nights international visitors stayed when visiting the Islands (Outer Hebrides, Orkney and Shetland) was 4.8 nights. These figures will include business visitors who generally stay for shorter periods of time.

The Islands Visitor Survey 2012-2013 found that the average number of nights holiday visitors stayed in the Outer Hebrides was 6.1 nights; and we have applied a six night average to additional visitors from 2018 to derive the figures below.

Table 17 Additional Visitors and Nights

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Low Growth Total number of additional visitors 9,943 10,716 11,513 12,333 13,178 Total number of additional nights 59,658 64,296 69,078 73,998 79,068 Medium Growth Total number of additional visitors 10,694 12,285 13,972 15,760 17,656 Total number of additional nights 64,164 73,710 83,832 94,560 105,936 High Growth Total number of additional visitors 11,445 13,899 16,575 19,491 22,670 Total number of additional nights 68,670 83,394 99,450 116,946 136,020

Additional Employment

According to VisitScotland figures, tourism spend in the Outer Hebrides was £75m in 2015, and there were 1,000 jobs in sustainable tourism in the area. On this basis, £75,000 of spending creates a direct job in sustainable tourism.

The usually applied assumption for converting visitor spend in Scotland into employment impact in terms of full time equivalent jobs (FTEs) is that, on average, £50,000 of visitor spending will create 1 FTE, inclusive of indirect impacts through the supply chain and induced impacts through additional employee spending. Applicants to the Coastal Communities Fund operated by the Big Lottery, for example, are advised to use this ratio.

As a smaller area than Scotland with more limited indirect and induced impacts, the Outer Hebrides would have a higher spend per FTE than Scotland; although the nature of the economy and average earnings will tend to reduce the spending required to support 1 FTE. Allowing for these factors, and for inflation in recent years, we assume below that 1 FTE will be created in the Outer Hebrides for each additional £55,000 spent in the area by tourist visitors. This is broadly compatible with the £70,000 spend per direct job noted above from VisitScotland statistics once indirect and induced jobs are added to direct jobs.

21 Table 18 Additional Visitors Spend and Jobs Supported

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Low Growth Total additional visitor spend (£) 3,480,050 3,750,600 4,029,550 4,316,550 4,612,300 Additional FTE jobs supported 63 68 73 78 84 Medium Growth Total additional visitor spend (£) 3,742,900 4,299,750 4,890,200 5,516,000 6,179,600 Additional FTE jobs supported 68 78 89 100 112 High Growth Total additional visitor spend (£) 4,005,750 4,864,650 5,801,250 6,821,850 7,934,500 Additional FTE jobs supported 73 88 105 124 144

Cumulatively, over the five year period as a whole, this gives the following additional FTE job years of employment:

Table 19 Additional FTE Job Years of Employment

Additional FTE job years of Employment Low Growth Scenario 366 Medium Growth Scenario 447 High Growth Scenario 534

Continuing growth in tourist visits after 2022 is likely, especially on the lower scenarios as visitor capacity and marketing reach continue to grow.

Also, by 2020, strong growth in ferry demand is expected to be generated by the construction of the interconnector between the Outer Hebrides and the mainland, with construction also taking place over a number of years into the 2020s on the onshore wind farms that will use the interconnector.

This strengthens the justification for the second ferry service to cover the summer period before and after July and August.

22 Appendix 1 – Landed Passengers and Vehicles for all routes

Ullapool – Stornoway

The Stornoway to Ullapool route carries the most passengers of all of the routes serving the Outer Hebrides, with 1.2 million passengers between October 2012 and September 2017. Almost half (48.9%) of all passengers travelling to or from the Outer Hebrides used this route. In summer 2017, 216,000 passengers used the route (an average of 31,000 per month), compared to 64,000 in winter 2016/17 (an average of 13,000 per month).

MV Loch Seaforth (capacity of 143 cars) replaced MV Isle of Lewis (capacity of 123 cars) as the main ferry on the route in 2015. In 2015, the MV Isle of Lewis remained on the route, providing additional capacity at peak times. The freight ferries (MV Muirneag replaced by MS Clipper Ranger in 2013) were also replaced by the MV Loch Seaforth.

Table A.1 – Annual Landed Passengers and Vehicles, Stornoway, 2014-2017

Total Annual 2013 – 2014 – 2015 – 2016-2017 Change Cumulative 2014 2014 % 2015 2015 % 2016 2016 % 2017 % Change 2013 - Growth Change Change Change 2017 2013-2017 Annual Passengers 111,044 1.0 115,749 4.2 130,028 12.3 137,761* 6.0 25.3 5.8 Cars 34,737 1.8 36,497 5.1 42,747 17.1 45,995* 7.6 34.8 7.7 Coaches 210 16.7 210 - 230 9.5 252* 9.6 40.0 8.8 CVs 6,473 6.0 6,104 -5.7 6,393 4.7 6,622* 3.6 8.4 2.0 Total Vehicles 41,420 2.5 42,811 3.4 49,370 15.3 52,869* 7.1 30.8 6.9 July and August Passengers 33,479 0.6 35,262 5.3 38,836 10.1 40,294 3.8 21.1 4.9 Cars 9,254 0.5 10,426 12.7 11,538 10.7 12,285 6.5 33.4 7.5 Coaches 82 51.9 78 -4.9 85 9.0 80 -5.9 48.1 10.3 CVs 1,206 9.1 1,102 -8.6 1,155 4.8 1,215 5.2 10.0 2.4 Total Vehicles 10,542 1.7 11,606 10.1 12,778 10.1 13,580 6.3 31.0 7.0 Note: * 2017 figures for October, November and December were not available therefore figures for 2016 were used

23 Uig – Tarbert This route connects Uig on Skye to the Isle of Harris. It is part of the “Uig triangle,” which refers to the triangle between Uig, Tarbert and Lochmaddy, although the vast majority of sailings are direct between Tarbert and Uig. In the summer 2018 timetable, there are generally 3–4 single sailings per day, although this decreases to 1-3 sailings per day in the winter 2017/18 timetable.

The MV Hebrides (capacity 90 cars) has been the main vessel on the route, although the route has also been served by the MV Clansman (90 cars), MV Finlaggan (85 cars), MV Hebridean Isles (68 cars), MV Isle of Lewis (123 cars) and the MV Isle of Arran (76 cars) over the past five years.

The route has served 522,000 passengers in the past five years and was the second busiest route in the Outer Hebrides, after the Stornoway/Ullapool route. The Summary of the Vessel Replacement Deployment Plan reported that capacity on the Uig Triangle was 71% in 2015, and that the Uig Triangle is likely to be getting a new 100m vessel in 2019.

According to the Ferry Availability Review 2016, 51% of days in June and August 2016 all sailings were full online for those looking to travel from Uig to Tarbert, and on 40% of days for those looking to travel from Tarbert to Uig. Around 40% of sailings on the route were unavailable to book online prior to departure in July 2016. Table A.2 – Annual Landed Passengers and Vehicles, Tarbert, 2014-2017 Total Annual 2013 – 2014 – 2015 – 2016-2017 Change Cumulative 2014 2014 % 2015 2015 % 2016 2016 % 2017 % Change 2013 - Growth Change Change Change 2017 2013-2017 Annual Passengers 54,272 8.1 52,625 -3.0 52,328 -0.6 56,625* 8.2 12.8 3.1 Cars 21,256 9.5 20,921 -1.6 20,595 -1.6 22,129* 7.4 14.0 3.3 Coaches 97 26.0 100 3.1 83 -17.0 93* 12.0 20.8 4.8 CVs 519 5.1 477 -8.1 350 -26.6 367* 4.9 -25.7 -7.2 Total Vehicles 21,872 9.4 21,498 -1.7 21,028 -2.2 22,589* 7.4 13.0 3.1 July and August Passengers 18,999 5.7 17,959 -5.5 18,688 4.1 19,605 4.9 9.1 2.2 Cars 6,599 5.4 6,344 -3.9 6,567 3.5 6,865 4.5 9.7 2.3 Coaches 35 6.1 32 -8.6 35 9.4 37 5.7 12.1 2.9 CVs 65 -18.8 68 4.6 58 -14.7 38 -34.5 -52.5 -17.0 Total Vehicles 6,699 5.1 6,444 -3.8 6,660 3.4 6,940 4.2 8.9 2.2 24 Note: * 2017 figures for October, November and December were not available therefore figures for 2016 were used Uig – Lochmaddy

This route connects Uig on Skye to Lochmaddy on the Isle of North Uist. It is also part of the “Uig triangle,” which refers to the triangle between Uig, Tarbert and Lochmaddy, although all sailings are direct between Lochmaddy and Uig. In the summer 2018 timetable, there are generally 3–4 single sailings per day, although this decreases to 2-3 sailings per day in the winter 2017/18 timetable.

Like the Tarbert – Uig route, the MV Hebrides (capacity 90 cars) has been the main vessel on the route, although the route has also been served by the MV Clansman (90 cars), MV Finlaggan (85 cars), MV Hebridean Isles (68 cars), MV Isle of Lewis (123 cars), MV Isle of Arran (76 cars), and MV Lord of the Isles (56 cars) over the past five years.

The route has carried 428,000 passengers in the past five years and was the third busiest route in the Outer Hebrides. The Summary of the Vessel Replacement Deployment Plan reported that capacity on the Uig Triangle was 71% in 2015, and that the Uig Triangle is likely to be getting a new 100m vessel in 2019.

According to the Ferry Availability Review 2016, 33% of days in June and August 2016 all sailings were full online for those looking to travel from Lochmaddy to Uig, and on 44% of days for those looking to travel from Uig to Lochmaddy. 36% of all sailings on the route were unavailable to book online prior to departure in July 2016.

Table A.3 – Annual Landed Passengers and Vehicles, Lochmaddy, 2014-2017 Total Annual 2013 – 2014 – 2015 – 2016-2017 Change Cumulative 2014 2014 % 2015 2015 % 2016 2016 % 2017* % Change 2013 - Growth Change Change Change 2017 2013-2017 Annual Passengers 42,685 -1.0 42,553 -0.3 42,545 -0.0 43,260 1.7 0.3 0.1 Cars 17,249 0.9 17,370 0.7 17,619 1.4 18,064 2.5 5.6 1.4 Coaches 55 10.0 58 5.5 46 -20.7 49 6.5 -2.0 -0.5 CVs 2,441 0.7 2,419 -0.9 2,621 8.4 2,595 -1.0 7.1 1.7 Total Vehicles 19,745 0.9 19,847 0.5 20,286 2.2 20,708 2.1 5.8 1.4 July and August Passengers 12,426 -2.2 12,504 0.6 12,049 -3.6 11,532 -4.3 -9.2 -2.4 Cars 4,499 -1.1 4,617 2.6 4,497 -2.6 4,449 -1.1 -2.2 -0.5 Coaches 10 -23.1 17 70.0 12 -29.4 19 58.3 46.2 10.0 CVs 465 5.0 465 - 458 -1.5 393 -14.2 -11.3 -2.9

25 Total Vehicles 4,974 -0.6 5,099 2.5 4,967 -2.6 4,861 -2.1 -2.9 -0.7 Note: * 2017 figures for October, November and December were not available therefore figures for 2016 were used Oban – Lochboisdale

This route connects Oban to Lochboisdale on the Isle of South Uist. This route has been replaced by the Lochboisdale to Mallaig route in the summer, although will still operate in winter 2017/18. In the winter 2017/18 timetable, there are two return crossings per week (4 return crossings to Mallaig per week), with the ferry departing early morning (0600 or 0620) and returning later in the day (2250 or 1740).

The MV Lord of the Isles (capacity 56 cars) and the MV Clansman (90 cars) have been the main vessels on the route, although the route has also been served by the MV Hebridean Isles (68 cars), MV Hebrides (90 cars) and the MV Isle of Arran (76 cars) over the past five years.

The route has carried 71,000 passengers in the past five years, although the service has been affected by the Lochboisdale – Mallaig route that was introduced in 2013 and the fact that there was no service to Oban in summer 2017.

The Oban – Lochboisdale route was not included in the Ferry Availability Review 2016, nor the Vessel Deployment plan, due to the restructuring of the route.

Table A.4 – Annual Landed Passengers and Vehicles, Lochboisdale, 2014-2017

Total Annual 2013 – 2014 – 2015 – 2016-2017 Change Cumulative 2014 2014 % 2015 2015 % 2016 2016 % 2017 % Change 2013 - Growth Change Change Change 2017 2013-2017 Annual Passengers 10,303 -6.4 9,690 -5.9 1,983 -79.5 1,482* -25.3 -86.5 -39.4 Cars 3,377 -1.0 3,086 -8.6 845 -72.6 667* -21.1 -80.4 -33.5 Coaches 6 -33.3 5 -16.7 2 -60.0 3* 50.0 -66.7 -24.0 CVs 144 33.3 147 2.1 57 -61.2 46* -19.3 -57.4 -19.2 Total Vehicles 3,527 -0.0 3,238 -8.2 904 -72.1 716* -20.8 -79.7 -32.9 July and August Passengers 3,792 -6.8 3,655 -3.6 84 -97.7 - - - - Cars 1,048 -7.3 981 -6.4 36 -96.3 - - - - Coaches 3 50.0 - -100.0 0 - - - - - CVs 23 53.3 19 -17.4 1 -94.7 - - - - 26 Total Vehicles 1074 -6.4 1,000 -6.9 37 -96.3 - - - - Note: * 2017 figures for October, November and December were not available therefore figures for 2016 were used Mallaig – Lochboisdale

This route connects Mallaig to Lochboisdale on the Isle of South Uist. This route was introduced in November 2013 for the winter season only on a trial basis, and in 2016, the route operated year round, replacing the Lochboisdale to Oban service in the summer months. In the winter, there are four return crossings from Lochboisdale to Mallaig per week, with the ferry departing at 0715 and returning later at 1730. In the summer, there is one return crossing per day, with departures in the early morning (0620 or 0700) and returning later in the day (2100 on Monday to Friday, 1830 on a Sunday). The vessel on the route (MV Lord of the Isles) runs a shuttle service on the Mallaig to Armadale route during the day.

The MV Lord of the Isles (capacity 56 cars) has been the only vessel operating on the route to date.

The route has carried 49,000 passengers in since its introduction in November 2013. The numbers have increased over time as the operation on the route has increased.

According to the Ferry Availability Review 2016, 31% of days in June and August 2016 all sailings were full online for those looking to travel from Mallaig to Lochboisdale, however only 11% of days had all sailings full online for those looking to travel from Lochboisdale to Mallaig over the same period (most likely due to the early morning departure). 20% of all sailings from Mallaig to Lochboisdale were unavailable to book online prior to departure and 16% of sailings from Lochboisdale to Mallaig were unavailable to book online prior to departure in July 2016.

Table A.5 – Annual Landed Passengers and Vehicles, Lochboisdale, 2014-2017

2014 – 2015 2015 – 2016 % 2016-2017 % 2014 2015 2016 2017 % Change Change Change Annual Passengers 598 466 -22.1 10,764 2,209.9 12,810* 19.0 Cars 202 184 -8.9 3,985 2,065.8 5,061* 27.0 Coaches - 1 - 10 900.0 12* 20.0 CVs 20 21 5.0 144 585.7 155* 7.6 Total Vehicles 222 206 -7.2 4,139 1,909.2 5,228* 26.3 July and August Passengers - - - - 4,921 5,704 15.9 Cars - - - - 1,660 2,013 21.3 Coaches - - - - 4 4 - CVs - - - - 40 43 7.5

27 Total Vehicles - - - - 1,704 2,060 20.9 Note: * 2017 figures for October, November and December were not available therefore figures for 2016 were used

Oban – Castlebay

This route connects Oban to Castlebay, on Barra. There are six return sailings per week from Castlebay to Oban in the winter month, and daily return sailings during the summer months. The sailing takes 5.5 hours and is the longest in the Outer Hebrides. The route has carried 204,000 passengers over the past five years.

The MV Clansman (capacity 90 cars) and the MV Lord of the Isles (56 cars) have been the main vessels on the route, although the route has also been served by the MV Hebridean Isles (68 cars), the MV Isle of Mull (70 cars), MV Hebrides (90 cars), MV Isle of Lewis (123 cars), and the MV Isle of Arran (76 cars) over the past five years.

According to the Ferry Availability Review 2016, 10% of days in June and August 2016 all sailings were full online for those looking to travel from Oban to Castlebay, and on 4% of days for those looking to travel from Castlebay to Oban. 10% of all sailings from Oban to Castlebay were unavailable to book online prior to departure in July 2016.

Table A.6 – Annual and July and August Landed Passengers and Vehicles, Castlebay, 2014-2017

Total Annual 2013 – 2014 – 2015 – 2016-2017 Change Cumulative 2014 2014 % 2015 2015 % 2016 2016 % 2017 % Change 2013 - Growth Change Change Change 2017 2013-2017 Annual Passengers 22,434 2.6 21,301 -5.1 23,362 9.7 25,812* 10.5 18.1 4.2 Cars 7,122 3.8 7,010 -1.6 8,388 19.7 9,272* 10.5 35.2 7.8 Coaches 45 45.2 32 -28.9 33 3.1 30* -9.1 -3.2 -0.8 CVs 432 9.1 473 9.5 495 4.7 483* -2.4 22.0 5.1 Total Vehicles 7,599 4.3 7,515 -1.1 8,916 18.6 9,785* 9.7 34.3 7.7 July and August Passengers 8,087 -0.9 7,651 -5.4 9,154 19.6 9,379 2.5 14.9 3.5 Cars 2,249 2.7 2,255 0.3 2,826 25.3 2,949 4.4 34.7 7.7 Coaches 20 17.6 12 -40.0 15 25.0 12 -20.0 -29.4 -8.3 CVs 80 - 109 36.3 97 -11.0 95 -2.1 18.8 4.4 28 Total Vehicles 2,349 2.8 2,376 1.1 2,938 23.7 3,056 4.0 33.7 7.5 Note: * 2017 figures for October, November and December were not available therefore figures for 2016 were used

29