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APPENDIX 1 Tourist Visitor Demand for the Ullapool-Stornoway Ferry

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APPENDIX 1 Tourist Visitor Demand for the Ullapool-Stornoway Ferry APPENDIX 1 Tourist Visitor Demand for the Ullapool-Stornoway Ferry Route and Potential Impacts from a Second Summer Ferry The 2018 Summer Timetable Change CalMac’s summer 2018 timetable was released on the 1st of November 2017. It shows two return crossings per day for the Ullapool-Stornoway ferry, which is an increase of one return crossing on a Sunday from the original 2017 timetable. However, during the peak summer months from the end of June to early September, there were already two crossings on a Sunday in 2017, so this overall increase in capacity (of 7.7%) will only occur outwith the peak months – i.e. in April, May, June, September and October. Also, in 2017, there were three extra crossings in August to relieve pressure on Saturday nights. These were on the 5th, 12th and 19th, although this service arrived in Stornoway after 3am and wouldn’t have been an attractive option for many visitors to the Outer Hebrides. Capacity Constraints Increasing Over Time Along with increasing demand for deck space, there has also been a trend towards longer cars and more LGVs that affects overall deck capacity for cars carrying tourist visitors. Transport Scotland’s Vessel Replacement and Deployment Plan discusses these issues: Increasing car sizes are continuing to have an impact on the number of vehicles which the CHFS vessels can convey. As an example vessels which were constructed in the 1980’s were designed to accommodate cars from that era. Based on today’s average car dimensions, the older vessels’ effective car capacity, by number, is up to 20% less than it was originally. As well as car lengths and widths increasing, weights are also increasing. This increase in weight manifests itself when cars are stowed on vessel mezzanine decks. In order that safe working limits are not exceeded the number of cars stowed on the mezzanine decks of the older vessels may be reduced. The full roll-out of RET across the CHFS network has resulted in a change of vehicle choice for many small commercial operators and tradesmen. The commercial attractiveness (i.e. fare price and the lifting of previous 5 metre length threshold to 6 metres) of a Light Goods Vehicle (LGV) as opposed to a small Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) has resulted in a number of customers switching to LGVs. This transition from HGVs to LGVs will continue for a few years as operators gradually replace their vehicles. The impact of this change in customer behaviour affects the data recorded in current business information systems. HGV activity is recorded as commercial vehicles (CV) whilst LGV activity is recorded as cars. This change in classification makes it more difficult to identify the trends associated with LGV’s as they are now collated with cars. As LGV’s are larger than cars, the effect of this is to understate the actual capacity utilisation. CFL is reviewing other data sources to assist with the analysis of this changing behaviour. A further trend, reducing capacity for tourist cars, is the increase in tourist campervans, which often have two occupants but are longer than cars that might have 3-4 occupants. 1 2 Summary of Carrying Statistics For this review, CalMac provided monthly carrying statistics per vessel per route between October 2012 and September 2017. Figures were analysed for the Outer Hebrides as a whole and the Stornoway to Ullapool route, per vehicle type and focusing just on the summer season, when full capacity is often reached. Figures were provided for passengers and vehicles landed and shipped, although our analysis focuses on passenger numbers. For all routes, there was a clear distinction in the volumes of traffic in the summer period (April – October) and the winter period (November – March). For 2017, with figures not yet available for October 2017, the figure for October 2016 was used to give a full season. All Routes Serving the Outer Hebrides Annual Capacity Ferry traffic has increased for all CalMac routes and for all vehicle types over the period 2012-2017, as shown in Chart 1 below. Chart 1 Annual Carrying Statistics by Vehicle Type, 2012/2013 – 2016/17 Total passenger numbers increased by 17.5% over the period, from 470,000 in 2012/2013 to 553,000 in 2016/2017. The total number of cars and coaches transported increased by 25.1% and 29.5% respectively over the period, and the number of commercial vehicles increased by 6.0%. 3 Excluding commercial vehicles, the number of occupants per car or coach (although there is no differentiation in CalMac’s statistics between foot passengers and people travelling in a vehicle) decreased from 2.93 to 2.75 over the period, suggesting that there has been a trend towards lower vehicle capacity or lower numbers of foot passengers. As there is no differentiation between foot passengers and passengers travelling in a vehicle, it isn’t possible to tell whether there has been a decrease in foot passengers, or a decrease in the number of passengers per vehicle, or both. Summer Capacity Chart 2 shows summer carrying statistics by vehicle type between 2013 and 2017. Chart 2 Summer Carrying Statistics by Vehicle Type, Summer 2013 – Summer 2017 Passenger and vehicle carryings increased at a greater pace in the summer months than annually. Total passenger carryings increased from 369,000 in Summer 2013 to 445,000 in Summer 2017 (+20.8%). Total car carryings increased by 28%, total coaches carryings increased by 26.8%, and total commercial vehicles carryings increased by 7.7%. According to official mid year population estimates, the population of the Outer Hebrides decreased by 2.4% between 2012 and 2016. Ferry carryings have however increased in the winter months, and there is therefore a trend towards residents travelling more frequently and/or increased visitor numbers in the winter. Overall, passenger numbers increased by 5.2% between winter 2012/13 and 2016/17, total cars transported increased by 15.1%, total coaches by 15.2%, and total commercial vehicles by 5.0%. Overall, nevertheless, traffic is considerably higher in the summer months, with an average of 78,290 passenger and vehicle movements per month in the summer and 29,955 movements per month in the winter months. 4 As noted above, in summer 2017 CalMac added late night sailings on three Saturday nights during August in order to address “unprecedented demand on the route”, on a pilot basis.1 These sailings arrived into Stornoway after 3am in the morning, and were therefore unlikely to be appealing to tourist visitors. Stornoway-Ullapool The figures in this section relate to the Stornoway to Ullapool route, the only route served by these ports. MV Loch Seaforth replaced MV Isle of Lewis as the main ferry on the route in 2015, giving additional capacity. In 2015, however, the MV Isle of Lewis remained on the route, providing additional capacity at peak times. The freight ferries (MV Muirneag replaced by MS Clipper Ranger in 2013) were also replaced by the MV Loch Seaforth. During both summer and winter months, the timetable includes two return journeys per day, Monday to Saturday, with one return journey on a Sunday. During the peak summer months from the end of June to early September, this increased to two return journeys on a Sunday in 2017. The Stornoway to Ullapool route carries the most passengers of all of the routes serving the Outer Hebrides, with 1.2 million passengers between October 2012 and September 2017. Almost half (48.9%) of all passengers travelling to or from the Outer Hebrides used this route. In summer 2017, 216,000 passengers used the route (an average of 31,000 per month), compared to 64,000 in winter 2016/17 (an average of 13,000 per month). Chart 3 below shows the total number of passengers and vehicles on the Stornoway – Ullapool route between summer 2013 and summer 2017. Chart 3 Summer Carrying Statistics by Vehicle Type, Stornoway-Ullapool, Summer 2013-Summer 2017 1 https://www.calmac.co.uk/calmac.co.uk/additional-Saturday-Stornoway-Ullapool-Sailings 5 Focusing on the number of vehicles per crossing in the peak months of July and August, there have been an average of 112.2 cars per crossing, 0.6 buses and 10.5 commercial vehicles. Assuming that buses and commercial vehicles are three times the length of a car (although some commercial vehicles would be smaller vans), there would be an equivalent of 145.5 car lengths per crossing. As the capacity of the MV Loch Seaforth is 143 cars2, we can assume that the ferry has run at maximum or near maximum capacity during these peak months. The unmet demand of people wishing but unable to travel will have been significant. Between 2015 (when the new, larger capacity ferry was introduced) and 2017 (using 2016 figures for October, November and December), passenger numbers increased by 18.9%, cars increased by 25.8%, coaches increased by 19.5% and commercial vehicles increased by 6.9%. Given that the maximum capacity of the MV Loch Seaforth was reached in July and August 2017 (and was an estimated average 88.3% in June and September 2017), considerable demand is also likely to be unfulfilled in coming years. In 2018, assuming that the annual growth in demand continues at the same rate as between 2015 and 2017, 2,056 cars, 9 coaches and 337 commercial vehicles would not be able to travel in the months of July and August (in addition to the vehicles not able to be accommodated in 2017). Maximum capacity would also be reached during the months of June and September in 2019, should current growth trends continue (taking into account the extra sailing on a Sunday scheduled for 2018 onwards).
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