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2016 Number 1 Copyright © 2016 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved. Published since 1964 by McKinsey & Company, 55 East 52nd Street, New York, New York 10022. Cover artwork by Matt Shlian McKinsey Quarterly meets the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) chain-of- custody standards. The paper used in the Quarterly is certified as being produced in an environ- mentally responsible, socially beneficial, and economi- cally viable way. Printed in the United States of America. 2016 Number 1 THIS QUARTER Each spring, McKinsey’s global managing director Dominic Barton meets with the leaders of about 15 global organizations to get advice on our emerging ideas. Last year, Dom invited me to go along, but there was a price of admission: putting some thoughts down on paper about the “organization of the future.” As a firm, we had a number of research initiatives underway connected with this theme, and although they were far from complete, Dom suggested we start getting feedback. I sketched out three big priorities (embracing digital tools, achieving agility, and nurturing new kinds of leaders), which our advisors found hard to disagree with but urged us to investigate further. As we did, we realized that our terms needed to be sharpened. “Organization of the future” implies that there’s a single structural solution to the demands being placed on today’s companies, but that’s simply not true. Instead, as this issue of the Quarterly suggests, every company should be thinking about how it “organizes for the future,” by which we mean reconciling the need for organizational stability with the reality that technology-enabled changes in business processes and workforce automation are rapidly uprooting traditional pillars of company confidence. My colleagues Aaron De Smet, Susan Lund, and Bill Schaninger suggest that part of the answer is workplace labor platforms—digital tools that may, ironically enough, help us strike a more human balance. Ericsson chief human resources officer Bina Chaurasia describes some of her company’s early efforts to build globally integrated processes on such platforms. The importance—and challenge—of rethinking the organization at the moment is highlighted in three other articles: “Four fundamentals of workforce automation” summarizes the early results of a major McKinsey research effort on the automatability of activities (demonstrated technologies could auto- mate as much as 60 percent of labor activities in the United States) and jobs (just 5 percent could be completely automated). “Agility: It rhymes with stability,” meanwhile, offers advice for designing a backbone of structures, governance arrangements, and processes that enable dynamism. And Roche CEO Severin Schwan suggests what it takes to build an innovative organization. Leadership implications abound, starting with how to maintain organizational health amid rapid change. As executives seek to do so, they should bear in mind new McKinsey research suggesting that leadership behavior that works in healthy organizations is less likely to work in struggling ones, and vice versa. Inspiration for embattled leaders can come from many sources. Jeffrey Pfeffer, a professor at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business and the recent author of Leadership BS, suggests five books that he thinks can help. And McKinsey’s Nick van Dam and Els van der Helm explain why leaders who don’t get enough sleep could be damaging their organizations. Manish Chopra, also of McKinsey, offers a personal reflection on how meditation has been a useful coping mechanism in his case. These are valuable reminders that while many of the challenges to the organization come from technology (robots, artificial intelligence) and the seemingly unstoppable pace of compe- tition, people remain at the center of how we will adapt. Speaking of adapting, you might notice that this issue of the Quarterly has an updated look. We hope it helps you enjoy our ideas—the rigor and relevance of which we don’t intend to change. Michael Rennie Director, Dubai office McKinsey & Company On the cover ORGANIZING FOR THE FUTURE 30 Organizing for the future Platform-based talent markets help put the emphasis in human- capital management back where it belongs—on humans. Aaron De Smet, Susan Lund, and Bill Schaninger 44 How Ericsson aligned its people with its transformation strategy A recent shift in strategy required an overhaul of HR. Ericsson’s chief human-resources officer, Bina Chaurasia, describes how skills, technology, and processes had to change on a global scale. 50 Four fundamentals of workplace automation As the automation of physical and knowledge work advances, many jobs will be redefined rather than eliminated—at least in the short term. Michael Chui, James Manyika, and Mehdi Miremadi 58 Agility: It rhymes with stability Companies can become more agile by designing their organizations both to drive speed and create stability. Wouter Aghina, Aaron De Smet, and Kirsten Weerda Features LEADERSHIP: CONTEXT, INNOVATION, AND AUTHENTICITY 72 Leadership in context Organizational health matters more than you might expect. Michael Bazigos, Chris Gagnon, and Bill Schaninger 80 Organizing for breakthrough innovation Roche’s CEO, Severin Schwan, talks about the group’s R&D structure, tough decisions, and long-term mind-set. 90 Getting beyond the BS of leadership Management books and commentaries often oversimplify, seldom providing useful guidance about the skills and behavior needed to get things done. Here’s a better reading list for leaders. Jeffrey Pfeffer EXECUTIVE COPING MECHANISMS 96 The organizational cost of insufficient sleep Sleep-awareness programs can produce better leaders. Nick van Dam and Els van der Helm 106 Want to be a better leader? Observe more and react less Overloaded executives need coping mechanisms. This personal reflection shows how meditation can help. Manish Chopra 4 Leading Edge 8 Big Data: Getting a better read on Industry Dynamics performance Research from selected sectors The benefits match those of earlier technology cycles, but companies must scale up their 22 data-analytics skills to reap the gains. Insurance: A more digital world will place a Jacques Bughin premium on some skills while reducing the need for others. 12 Sylvain Johansson and Ulrike Vogelgesang How private-equity owners lean into turnarounds 24 PE-backed companies outperform their Banking: After the boom and crisis, the public counterparts during periods of distress industry seems to be returning to a familiar because the owners play a more active role in path. But today’s stability may prove elusive. management. Miklos Dietz, Philipp Härle, and Somesh Khanna Hyder Kazimi and Tao Tan 26 14 Groceries: Why are modern grocery stores GE’s Jeff Immelt on digitization flourishing in some emerging markets but In this interview excerpt, GE CEO Jeff Immelt struggling in others? describes the organizational consequences of Peter Child, Thomas Kilroy, and James Naylor digital advances sweeping the industrial sector. China Pulse Closing Views Snapshots of China’s digital economy 112 How the sharing economy can make its case 16 These challengers must develop a smarter Online car sales: Can automobiles become approach to external engagement. the next big category for Chinese e-commerce? Alberto Marchi and Ellora-Julie Parekh Alan Lau 117 18 Creating value from long-term bets Digital brands: Consumer brands struggle Corning’s CEO reminds us that big corporate for prominence on the country’s major achievements rarely come overnight. e-commerce platforms. New opportunities Wendell P. Weeks could raise their profile. Lambert Bu 20 Extra Point Offline-to-online commerce: A flood of liquidity has produced huge subsidies and deep 120 Whoopee! discounts in an app-driven marketplace. Wings Zhang McKinsey Quarterly editors DIGITAL OFFERINGS Frank Comes, Executive editor Lang Davison, Executive editor Tim Dickson, Deputy editor in chief Websites Holly Lawson, Editorial associate mckinsey.com/quarterly David Schwartz, Senior editor mckinsey.com/featured-insights Allen P. Webb, Editor in chief mckinseychina.com/insights-publications Contributing editors Michael T. 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