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Dr. Andrew Sentance
DR. ANDREW SENTANCE Senior Economic Adviser at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP Author of Rediscovering Growth: After the Crisis Former external member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England Former Chief Economist and Head of Environmental Affairs at British Airways Head of Economic Policy and Director of Economic Affairs at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Dr Andrew Sentance is Senior Economic Adviser at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and the author of Rediscovering Growth: After the Crisis, published in November 2013. From October 2006 until May 2011, he served as an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England. He is the third longest serving external member of the MPC, and his period of office spanned the financial crisis, the ensuing recession and the beginnings of economic recovery. While on the Committee, Andrew was not afraid to challenge the consensus view of his MPC colleagues. He argued for interest rate rises during his last year on the Committee, earning himself the reputation as an monetary policy “hawk”. Topics Before joining the Bank of England, Andrew had a very successful career as a business economist. He was Chief Economist and Head of Environmental Affairs at Economics British Airways and was one of the five senior managers appointed in 2001 by Finance Chief Executive Rod Eddington to prepare the company’s “Future Size and Shape” Global Economy turnaround plan. Globalisation Government He joined British Airways in 1998 from London Business School, where he was Director of the Centre for Economic Forecasting. Previous positions held include Head of Economic Policy and Director of Economic Affairs at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). -
The Run on the Rock
House of Commons Treasury Committee The run on the Rock Fifth Report of Session 2007–08 Volume II Oral and written evidence Ordered by The House of Commons to be printed 24 January 2008 HC 56–II [Incorporating HC 999 i–iv, Session 2006-07] Published on 1 February 2008 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £25.50 The Treasury Committee The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration, and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue & Customs and associated public bodies. Current membership Rt Hon John McFall MP (Labour, West Dunbartonshire) (Chairman) Nick Ainger MP (Labour, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire) Mr Graham Brady MP (Conservative, Altrincham and Sale West) Mr Colin Breed MP (Liberal Democrat, South East Cornwall) Jim Cousins MP (Labour, Newcastle upon Tyne Central) Mr Philip Dunne MP (Conservative, Ludlow) Mr Michael Fallon MP (Conservative, Sevenoaks) (Chairman, Sub-Committee) Ms Sally Keeble MP (Labour, Northampton North) Mr Andrew Love MP (Labour, Edmonton) Mr George Mudie MP (Labour, Leeds East) Mr Siôn Simon MP, (Labour, Birmingham, Erdington) John Thurso MP (Liberal Democrat, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross) Mr Mark Todd MP (Labour, South Derbyshire) Peter Viggers MP (Conservative, Gosport). Powers The Committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No. 152. These are available on the Internet via www.parliament.uk. Publications The Reports and evidence of the Committee are published by The Stationery Office by Order of the House. -
The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10
ISSN 1750-4171 ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model With An Application To Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10 School of Business and Economics Loughborough University Loughborough LE11 3TU United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1509 222701 Fax: + 44 (0) 1509 223910 http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/economics/ The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model with an application to monetary policy William H. Greeney Max Gillmanz Mark N. Harrisx Christopher Spencer{ September 2013 Abstract We propose a Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model. Our contribution lies not only in explicitly accounting for an excessive number of observations in a given choice category - as is the case in the standard literature on in‡ated models; rather, we introduce a new econometric model which nests the recently developed Middle In‡ated Ordered Probit (MIOP) models of Bagozzi and Mukherjee (2012) and Brooks, Harris, and Spencer (2012) as a special case, and further, can be used as a speci…cation test of the MIOP, where the implicit test is described as being one of symmetry versus asymmetry. In our application, which exploits a panel data-set containing the votes of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, we show that the TOP model a¤ords the econometrician considerable ‡exibility with respect to modelling the impact of di¤erent forms of uncertainty on interest rate decisions. Our …ndings, we argue, reveal MPC members’ asymmetric attitudes towards uncertainty and the changeability of interest rates. Keywords: Monetary policy committee, voting, discrete data, uncertainty, tempered equations. -
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Held on 4 and 5 May 2011
Publication date: 18 May 2011 MINUTES OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 4 AND 5 MAY 2011 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on 4 and 5 May 2011. They are also available on the Internet http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/mpc/pdf/2011/mpc1105.pdf The Bank of England Act 1998 gives the Bank of England operational responsibility for setting interest rates to meet the Government’s inflation target. Operational decisions are taken by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. The Committee meets on a regular monthly basis and minutes of its meetings are released on the Wednesday of the second week after the meeting takes place. Accordingly, the minutes of the Committee meeting to be held on 8 and 9 June will be published on 22 June 2011. MINUTES OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING HELD ON 4 AND 5 MAY 2011 1 Before turning to its immediate policy decision, and against the background of its latest projections for output and inflation, the Committee discussed financial market developments; the international economy; money, credit, demand and output; and supply, costs and prices. Financial markets 2 Markets had generally been stable on the month, against a backdrop of relatively thin trading conditions during the holiday periods. 3 Implied market expectations of the point at which Bank Rate would begin to rise had been pushed back, partly in response to data releases, notably the March CPI outturn. Information derived from overnight index swaps indicated that the market yield curve had fully priced in a 25 basis point increase in Bank Rate by early 2012. -
Too Big to Fail — U.S. Banks' Regulatory Alchemy
Journal of Business & Technology Law Volume 14 | Issue 2 Article 2 Too Big to Fail — U.S. Banks’ Regulatory Alchemy: Converting an Obscure Agency Footnote into an “At Will” Nullification of Dodd-Frank’s Regulation of the Multi-Trillion Dollar Financial Swaps Market Michael Greenberger Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.law.umaryland.edu/jbtl Recommended Citation Michael Greenberger, Too Big to Fail — U.S. Banks’ Regulatory Alchemy: Converting an Obscure Agency Footnote into an “At Will” Nullification of Dodd-Frank’s Regulation of the Multi-Trillion Dollar Financial Swaps Market, 14 J. Bus. & Tech. L. 197 () Available at: https://digitalcommons.law.umaryland.edu/jbtl/vol14/iss2/2 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Academic Journals at DigitalCommons@UM Carey Law. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Business & Technology Law by an authorized editor of DigitalCommons@UM Carey Law. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Too Big to Fail—U.S. Banks’ Regulatory Alchemy: Converting an Obscure Agency Footnote into an “At Will” Nullification of Dodd-Frank’s Regulation of the Multi-Trillion Dollar Financial Swaps Market MICHAEL GREENBERGER*©1 ΎLaw School Professor, University of Maryland Carey School of Law, and Founder and Director, University of Maryland Center for Health and Homeland Security (“CHHS”); former Director, Division of Trading and Markets, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Institute for New Economic Thinking (“INET”) funded and published this article as a working paper on the Social Sciences Research Network on June 19, 2018 at https://www.ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/WP_74.pdf. -
Chairmans Report.Pdf
Dean House Vernham Dean Andover, Hants SP11 0JZ Tel: +44 (0)1264737552 Fax: +44 (0)20 7900 2585 Email: [email protected] www.spe.org.uk ANNUAL REPORT OF THE CHAIRMAN 2017‐18 2017‐18 has been a transformative year for the Society. In January, at the start of the Society’s 65th year, we changed our name from Society of Business Economists (SBE) to Society of Professional Economists (SPE). There were two primary reasons why we made this change: 1. To broaden our appeal to a wider and more diverse range of economists. I am pleased to report that the Society’s membership has risen by more than 10% in the 10 months since we made the change and that it continues to grow rapidly. 2. To mark the Society’s expansion into the area of professional development. At the start of this year we launched a new professional development programme for economists, which is being run by the Society’s Head of Professional Development, Andy Ross. Through the hard work of Andy and his team, the popularity of these courses has grown steadily through the year. Meanwhile, the programme of events that the Society is holding has never been stronger. Since the start of the 2017‐2018 financial year, the Society has hosted three central bank governors, three deputy governors, the Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Chief Economic Advisor to HM Treasury and a host of economics professors and other experts. We have heard speakers discussing topics ranging from Brexit to Intergenerational Fairness and from the UK’s long‐run economic performance to the outlook for the housing market. -
Trump's Actions Speak Louder Than His Words: Reversal of Trump's
Trump’s Actions Speak Louder than His Words: Reversal of Trump’s China Policy After Assuming the Presidency 25 Trump’s Actions Speak Louder than His Words: Reversal of Trump’s China Policy After Assuming the Presidency Ian Tsung-yen Chen Assistant Professor, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-sen University Abstract This paper asks whether Donald Trump is likely to act tough on China as he signaled during his campaign for the U.S. presidency. According to evidence presented in this paper, I argue that the Trump administration has adopted a more moderate approach after assuming power for two reasons. First, Trump did not base his past harsh rhetoric on facts; therefore, there is no foundation to support a con- tainment strategy against China. Second, antagonizing China in eco- nomic affairs may create unintended consequences for the U.S., which may harm the U.S. domestic economy and his odds of winning a second term. In the South China Sea, however, Trump will continue with a tougher stance, but refrain from further escalation because backing down on security issues will signify his cowardice, which will generate domestic audience costs. As a result, the likelihood of starting a trade war, currency war, or military showdown in East Asia under Trump is low. 26 Prospect Journal No.17 Keywords: Donald J. Trump, U.S.-China Relations, Trade Imbalance, Renminbi, China I. Introduction During the 2016 U.S. Presidential election campaign, the Re- publican candidate, Donald Trump, relentlessly criticized the U.S.- China economic relationship and China’s behavior in the South China Sea. -
Brexit and the City
Brexit and the City Saying No to the Princes of Europe: The City of London as a World Financial Centre following Brexit Or Passport to Pimlico: The City of London’s post-Brexit future depending on whether it is located inside or outside Pimlico or even possibly Latvia Professor David Blake* Cass Business School City University of London [email protected] March 2017 [v10] * I am most grateful to Kevin Dowd, Tim Congdon, Daniel Corrigan, Martin Howe QC, Laurence Jones, Edgar Miller and Patrick Minford for invaluable discussions and support during the preparation of this paper. Highlights On 23 June 2016, the British people voted to leave the EU. The prime minister’s Lancaster House speech on 17 January 2017 made it very clear that this meant also leaving the single market, the customs union and the European Economic Area, membership of which means accepting freedom of movement. This has powerful implications for the City: • It is unlikely that business with the EU27 will be conducted via passports in future. • Instead, and depending on the degree of co-operation from the EU27, the City should plan its future operations using either: o a dual regulatory regime, based on a third-party expanded equivalence model with guarantees about how equivalence will be granted and removed, or o the World Financial Centre model where the City ‘goes it alone’. • Transitional arrangements will also depend on the degree of co-operation from the EU27. It is in everybody’s interests that any transitional arrangements are kept as short term as possible, no longer than is needed to bridge the gap between the UK’s exit from the EU and the conclusion of any formal long-term trading agreement with the EU. -
Univ Record 2013
UNIVERSITY COLLEGE RECORD October 2013 October UNIVERSITY COLLEGE RECORD October 2013 Text printed on 100% recycled paper printed by the holywell press limited 01865 242098 www.holywellpress.com UUNI-16216NI-16216 RRecordecord CCoverover 22013.indd013.indd 1 117/09/20137/09/2013 114:044:04 Professor Michael Collins Fellow of University College 1970–2012 (Photograph, University College) THE RECORD Volume XVI Number 3 2013 CONTENTS The Editor’s Notes 1 The Master’s Notes 2 The Governing Body 6 Newly Elected Fellows 13 The Master and Fellows 19 Leaving Fellows and Staff 25 Obituaries: Former Fellows and JRF’s 29 Academic Results and Distinctions 42 Scholarships & Exhibitions 52 From the Chaplain 59 From the Librarian 63 From the Development Director 65 The Chalet 70 The College Ball 74 Junior & Weir Common Rooms 76 College Clubs and Societies 80 Articles: The Photograph Album of Frederick Mills 102 “Whoever thou shalt be who will have read this, pray for me”: Voices from the Past in the Medieval Liturgical Manuscripts belonging to University College, Oxford 111 Norman Dix Remembers 123 Univ. at the Finishing Line; or Scot of the Antarctic 137 The Paralympics Opening Ceremony: a Univ. View 143 Varia 150 Architectural News 162 Obituaries 163 Calendar for Degree Ceremonies 209 Univ. Telephone Numbers 210 EDITOR’S NOTES This year marks the end of an era at Univ., as Professor Michael Collins retires from the post of Dean, a year after he retired as Mathematics Fellow. Michael arrived at Univ. in 1970, and has been a major part of College life ever since. -
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2011 Q2
164 Quarterly Bulletin 2011 Q2 Bank of England speeches A short summary of speeches made by Bank personnel since time to allow the economy to recover before the eventual publication of the previous Bulletin are listed below. policy normalisation begins. The challenges of the ‘New global economy’ Building resilient financial systems: macroprudential regimes Andrew Sentance, Monetary Policy Committee member, and securities market regulation May 2011. Paul Tucker, Deputy Governor, May 2011. www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2011/ www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2011/ speech500.pdf speech498.pdf In a speech to the Jersey Chamber of Commerce, In a speech at the International Council of Securities Dr Andrew Sentance described the way in which the global Associations Annual General Meeting, Paul Tucker discussed economy has become more integrated and the challenges that how the regulation of securities markets fits into the poses. Four main forces have come together — new development of macroprudential regimes. He explained how technologies, trade liberalisation, political change and market banking and securities markets have become less distinct over deregulation. This has presented three challenges for recent decades, with implications for both in banking policymakers: first, an ongoing process of structural change supervision and securities regulation. He discussed whether, created by the shift in global economic gravity towards Asia; from a financial stability perspective, a distinction between second, a prolonged period of upward pressure on energy and ‘intra-financial firm markets’ and ‘end-user markets’ might be commodity prices; and third, increased potential for global more useful than the more familiar distinction made by economic volatility. -
Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy 229
Speeches Inflation, expectations and monetary policy 229 Inflation, expectations and monetary policy In this speech,(1) Professor David Blanchflower,(2) member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), talks about the importance of inflation expectations for monetary policy making. He discusses what has happened to inflation and inflation expectations in recent months, and what actions should be taken in this area in the context of the current conjuncture. He then identifies four distinct phases of the downturn in the United States, and notes a number of similarities with the United Kingdom, suggesting that in the United Kingdom we may see a substantial decline in growth, a pickup in unemployment, and declining consumption growth driven by significant declines in house prices. He emphasises the importance of getting ahead of the curve in order to head off these downside risks. Introduction Inflation in the United Kingdom and the monetary policy framework It is a great pleasure to be addressing you here this evening at the David Hume Institute. I am a strong believer in Hume’s The Bank’s monetary policy objective is to deliver price own view that we should not seek to solely explain events and stability — low inflation — and, subject to that, to support the behaviour with theoretical models, rather, as Hume wrote in Government’s economic objectives including those for growth his A Treatise of Human Nature, we should use ‘experience and and employment. The inflation target is symmetric, and if the observation’ ie the empirical method. As Arnold Harberger target is missed by more than 1 percentage point on either side (1993) famously said ‘economics is fundamentally an — ie if the annual rate of CPI inflation is more than 3% or less observational discipline’. -
The Management of the Crown Estate
House of Commons Treasury Committee The management of the Crown Estate Eighth Report of Session 2009–10 Volume I HC 325–I House of Commons Treasury Committee The management of the Crown Estate Eighth Report of Session 2009–10 Volume I Report, together with formal minutes Ordered by the House of Commons to be published 22 March 2010 HC 325–I Published on 30 March 2010 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £0.00 The Treasury Committee The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration, and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue & Customs and associated public bodies. Current membership Rt Hon John McFall MP (Labour, West Dunbartonshire) (Chair) Nick Ainger MP (Labour, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire) Mr Graham Brady MP (Conservative, Altrincham and Sale West) Mr Colin Breed MP (Liberal Democrat, South East Cornwall) Jim Cousins MP (Labour, Newcastle upon Tyne Central) Mr Michael Fallon MP (Conservative, Sevenoaks) (Chair, Sub-Committee) Ms Sally Keeble MP (Labour, Northampton North) Mr Andrew Love MP (Labour, Edmonton) John Mann MP (Labour, Bassetlaw) Mr James Plaskitt MP (Labour, Warwick and Leamington) John Thurso MP (Liberal Democrat, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross) Mr Mark Todd MP (Labour, South Derbyshire) Mr Andrew Tyrie MP (Conservative, Chichester) Sir Peter Viggers MP (Conservative, Gosport) Powers The Committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No. 152. These are available on the Internet via www.parliament.uk. Publications The Reports and evidence of the Committee are published by The Stationery Office by Order of the House.