The Run on the Rock
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Rachel Lomax: Inflation Targeting in Practice - Models, Forecasts and Hunches
Rachel Lomax: Inflation targeting in practice - models, forecasts and hunches Speech by Ms Rachel Lomax, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, to the 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London, 12 March 2005. I am most grateful to Jens Larsen, James Bell, Fabrizio Zampolli and Robin Windle for research support; and to Charlie Bean, Peter Andrews, Spencer Dale, Phil Evans, Laura Piscitelli and other colleagues at the Bank of England for helpful comments. * * * Introduction Five and a half years ago in his Monnet lecture Charles Goodhart1 was able to talk with some confidence of the features that particularly distinguished the UK’s approach to inflation targeting. Today with over 20 countries, in every habitable continent, formally operating some variant of inflation targeting and many more adopting some parts of the framework, all actively sharing experience and best practice, I suspect that most aspects of our approach would find a counterpart somewhere else in the world. But Charles’s focus on the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) personal engagement in producing a published inflation forecast still seems to me to capture the essence of the UK’s approach. Today I want to talk about the role that forecasting has come to play in helping the MPC to take and communicate its decisions. In what sense does the Committee really ‘own’ the published forecasts that go out under its name? How much use do we make of models, and what models do we use? How far do our forecasts appear to drive interest rate decisions? And is there any evidence that this has helped to make policy more or less predictable? Finally I want to end by commenting on some of the issues raised by forecasts as a means of communication. -
Dr. Andrew Sentance
DR. ANDREW SENTANCE Senior Economic Adviser at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP Author of Rediscovering Growth: After the Crisis Former external member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England Former Chief Economist and Head of Environmental Affairs at British Airways Head of Economic Policy and Director of Economic Affairs at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Dr Andrew Sentance is Senior Economic Adviser at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and the author of Rediscovering Growth: After the Crisis, published in November 2013. From October 2006 until May 2011, he served as an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England. He is the third longest serving external member of the MPC, and his period of office spanned the financial crisis, the ensuing recession and the beginnings of economic recovery. While on the Committee, Andrew was not afraid to challenge the consensus view of his MPC colleagues. He argued for interest rate rises during his last year on the Committee, earning himself the reputation as an monetary policy “hawk”. Topics Before joining the Bank of England, Andrew had a very successful career as a business economist. He was Chief Economist and Head of Environmental Affairs at Economics British Airways and was one of the five senior managers appointed in 2001 by Finance Chief Executive Rod Eddington to prepare the company’s “Future Size and Shape” Global Economy turnaround plan. Globalisation Government He joined British Airways in 1998 from London Business School, where he was Director of the Centre for Economic Forecasting. Previous positions held include Head of Economic Policy and Director of Economic Affairs at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). -
University of Surrey Discussion Papers in Economics By
råáp=== = = ======råáîÉêëáíó=çÑ=pìêêÉó Discussion Papers in Economics THE DISSENT VOTING BEHAVIOUR OF BANK OF ENGLAND MPC MEMBERS By Christopher Spencer (University of Surrey) DP 03/06 Department of Economics University of Surrey Guildford Surrey GU2 7XH, UK Telephone +44 (0)1483 689380 Facsimile +44 (0)1483 689548 Web www.econ.surrey.ac.uk ISSN: 1749-5075 The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members∗ Christopher Spencer† Department of Economics, University of Surrey Abstract I examine the propensity of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (BoEMPC) members to cast dissenting votes. In particular, I compare the type and frequency of dissenting votes cast by so- called insiders (members of the committee chosen from within the ranks of bank staff)andoutsiders (committee members chosen from outside the ranks of bank staff). Significant differences in the dissent voting behaviour associated with these groups is evidenced. Outsiders are significantly more likely to dissent than insiders; however, whereas outsiders tend to dissent on the side of monetary ease, insiders do so on the side of monetary tightness. I also seek to rationalise why such differences might arise, and in particular, why BoEMPC members might be incentivised to dissent. Amongst other factors, the impact of career backgrounds on dissent voting is examined. Estimates from logit analysis suggest that the effect of career backgrounds is negligible. Keywords: Monetary Policy Committee, insiders, outsiders, dissent voting, career backgrounds, ap- pointment procedures. Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Relationship to the Literature 2 3 Rationalising Dissent Amongst Insiders and Outsiders - Some Priors 3 3.1CareerIncentives........................................... 4 3.2CareerBackgrounds........................................ -
Monetary Policy Oversight in Comparative Perspective: Britain and America During the Financial Crisis
Political Science and Political Economy Working Paper Department of Government London School of Economics No. 3/2014 Monetary Policy Oversight in Comparative Perspective: Britain and America during the Financial Crisis Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey (LSE) Monetary Policy Oversight in Comparative Perspective: Britain and America During the Financial Crisis Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey Government Department London School of Economics and Political Science Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE [email protected] http://personal.lse.ac.uk/schonhar/ This study examines deliberation on monetary policy oversight in the US and UK between 2006 and 2009. It employs reciprocity as the key criterion for judging the quality of monetary policy oversight deliberation (i.e., committee participants are expected to engage with one another, taking up and responding to the reasons offered by other participants). Using automated content analysis, the empirical finding is that reciprocity is clearly evident in the parliamentary oversight committee, but much less so in the two congressional committees. The two country cases represent very different approaches to legislative oversight, with the UK demonstrating a committee approach both in terms of the testimony of the monetary policy body and of the behaviour of the legislative committee, while the US demonstrates a focus on a series of individual contributions both from the Fed chairman and Members of Congress. In the US, this appears to allow greater scope to divert discussion away from the primary focus of hearings (i.e., monetary policy). 1 I. Introduction In normal economic times, clashes between politicians and central bankers in legislative oversight hearings on monetary policy are not typically considered worthy of headline news coverage. -
Reform of the Bank of England a New Bank for a New Governor
Reform of the Bank of England A new Bank for a new Governor James Barty Policy Exchange is the UK’s leading think tank. We are an educational charity whose mission is to develop and promote new policy ideas that will deliver better public services, a stronger society and a more dynamic economy. Registered charity no: 1096300. Policy Exchange is committed to an evidence-based approach to policy development. We work in partnership with academics and other experts and commission major studies involving thorough empirical research of alternative policy outcomes. We believe that the policy experience of other countries offers important lessons for government in the UK. We also believe that government has much to learn from business and the voluntary sector. Trustees Daniel Finkelstein (Chairman of the Board), Richard Ehrman (Deputy Chair), Theodore Agnew, Richard Briance, Simon Brocklebank-Fowler, Robin Edwards, Virginia Fraser, Edward Heathcoat Amory, David Meller, George Robinson, Robert Rosenkranz, Andrew Sells, Patience Wheatcroft, Rachel Whetstone and Simon Wolfson. Acknowledgements We would like to thank all of the people who have given us their views on the Bank, its historic performance and what could be done to reform it. We would particularly like to thank Dan Conaghan whose book The Bank (Inside the Bank of England) is an excellent read and a great source of information. This project was also enhanced by the panel debate we had with Sir John Gieve and Andrea Leadsome MP on the future of the Bank, which prompted a number of extra lines of enquiry for us. Finally we would like to thank those who have contributed to the Financial Policy unit at Policy Exchange without whose financial assistance this report could not have been produced. -
The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10
ISSN 1750-4171 ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model With An Application To Monetary Policy William H.Greene Max Gillman Mark N.Harris Christopher Spencer WP 2013 – 10 School of Business and Economics Loughborough University Loughborough LE11 3TU United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1509 222701 Fax: + 44 (0) 1509 223910 http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/economics/ The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model with an application to monetary policy William H. Greeney Max Gillmanz Mark N. Harrisx Christopher Spencer{ September 2013 Abstract We propose a Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model. Our contribution lies not only in explicitly accounting for an excessive number of observations in a given choice category - as is the case in the standard literature on in‡ated models; rather, we introduce a new econometric model which nests the recently developed Middle In‡ated Ordered Probit (MIOP) models of Bagozzi and Mukherjee (2012) and Brooks, Harris, and Spencer (2012) as a special case, and further, can be used as a speci…cation test of the MIOP, where the implicit test is described as being one of symmetry versus asymmetry. In our application, which exploits a panel data-set containing the votes of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, we show that the TOP model a¤ords the econometrician considerable ‡exibility with respect to modelling the impact of di¤erent forms of uncertainty on interest rate decisions. Our …ndings, we argue, reveal MPC members’ asymmetric attitudes towards uncertainty and the changeability of interest rates. Keywords: Monetary policy committee, voting, discrete data, uncertainty, tempered equations. -
Livespreads8.01 Email Lite5
6/6/2008 5:39 The Morning Email: Central Banks Table of Contents Pg 1 The FOMC: Dates and Places Pg 2 The FOMC: People Pg 3 Top CB Expectations, Dates, and more Pg 4 The FOMC: Ranges NEW info added Pg 5 PBOC Pg 6 BOJ Pg 7 The ECB : People, Objectives Pg 8 The ECB: Banks Pg 9 The ECB: Statement Pg 10 The BOE - Dates, Rates, and Statement Pg 11 The BOE - How They Voted Pg 12 The EU: Who Pg 13 The EU: Map of Banks Pg 14 The EU: Intrinsics Pg 15 Notes on Speeches Recent Updates Page Date (dd/mm/yyy) 3 6/4/2005 If you see orange on any page, then, it was updated in the 2 5/25/2008 last day or two or it's a new item to the email. Want something added? Let me know: [email protected] Disclaimer: All information within this newsletter is meant for internal use at GH Trader's LLC, only. All information has been recorded to the best of my ability. This material is based upon information that I consider reliable, but I do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Jim Goulding, [email protected] The Morning Email: Central Banks 6/6/2008 5:39 The FOMC: Dates and Places Pg 1 Meeting Dates for 2008 JanuaryFebruary March April May June 29/30 18 29/30 24/25 July August September October November December 5 16 28/29 16 The term "monetary policy" refers to the actions undertaken by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to influence the availability and cost of money and credit to help promote national economic goals. -
Re-Appointment of Sir Jon Cunliffe As Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the Bank of England
House of Commons Treasury Committee Re-appointment of Sir Jon Cunliffe as Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the Bank of England Twenty-Third Report of Session 2017–19 Report, together with formal minutes relating to the report Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 17 October 2018 HC 1626 Published on 18 October 2018 by authority of the House of Commons The Treasury Committee The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration, and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue and Customs and associated public bodies Current membership Nicky Morgan MP (Conservative, Loughborough) (Chair) Rushanara Ali MP (Labour, Bethnal Green and Bow) Mr Simon Clarke MP (Conservative, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland) Charlie Elphicke MP (Independent, Dover) Stephen Hammond MP (Conservative, Wimbledon) Stewart Hosie MP (Scottish National Party, Dundee East) Mr Alister Jack MP (Conservative, Dumfries and Galloway) Alison McGovern MP (Labour, Wirral South) Catherine McKinnell MP (Labour, Newcastle upon Tyne North) John Mann MP (Labour, Bassetlaw) Wes Streeting MP (Labour, Ilford North) Powers The committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No. 152. These are available on the internet via www.parliament.uk. Publication Committee reports are published on the Committee’s website at www.parliament.uk/treascom and in print by Order of the House. Evidence relating to this report is published on the inquiry -
Work of the Committee in 2005–06
House of Commons Treasury Committee Work of the Committee in 2005–06 Third Report of Session 2006–07 Report, together with formal minutes Ordered by The House of Commons to be printed 16 January 2007 HC 191 Published on 26 January 2007 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £0.00 The Treasury Committee The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration, and policy of HM Treasury and its associated public bodies. Current membership Rt Hon John McFall MP (Labour, West Dunbartonshire) (Chairman) Mr Colin Breed MP (Liberal Democrat, South East Cornwall) Jim Cousins MP (Labour, Newcastle upon Tyne Central) Angela Eagle MP (Labour, Wallasey) Mr Michael Fallon MP (Conservative, Sevenoaks), (Chairman, Sub-Committee) Mr David Gauke MP (Conservative, South West Hertfordshire) Ms Sally Keeble MP (Labour, Northampton North) Mr Andrew Love MP (Labour, Edmonton) Kerry McCarthy MP (Labour, Bristol East) Mr George Mudie MP (Labour, Leeds East) Mr Brooks Newmark MP (Conservative, Braintree) John Thurso MP (Liberal Democrat, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross) Mr Mark Todd MP (Labour, South Derbyshire) Peter Viggers MP (Conservative, Gosport) The following members were also members of the Committee during Session 2005–06: Lorely Burt MP (Liberal Democrat, Solihull) Damian Green MP (Conservative, Ashford) Susan Kramer MP (Liberal Democrat, Richmond Park) David Ruffley MP (Conservative, Bury St Edmunds) Powers The Committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No 152. These are available on the Internet via www.parliament.uk. -
Climate Change Scepticism: a Transnational Ecocritical Analysis
Garrard, Greg. "Climate Scepticism in the UK." Climate Change Scepticism: A Transnational Ecocritical Analysis. By Greg GarrardAxel GoodbodyGeorge HandleyStephanie Posthumus. London,: Bloomsbury Academic, 2019. 41–90. Bloomsbury Collections. Web. 26 Sep. 2021. <http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9781350057050.ch-002>. Downloaded from Bloomsbury Collections, www.bloomsburycollections.com, 26 September 2021, 23:43 UTC. Copyright © Greg Garrard, George Handley, Axel Goodbody and Stephanie Posthumus 2019. You may share this work for non-commercial purposes only, provided you give attribution to the copyright holder and the publisher, and provide a link to the Creative Commons licence. 2 Climate Scepticism in the UK Greg Garrard Before embarking on a detailed analysis of sceptical British texts, I will provide some historical and scholarly context. There have been many studies of anti- environmentalism in the United States (Helvarg; Brick; Ehrlich and Ehrlich; Switzer) and one on the global ‘backlash’ (Rowell), but none focuses exclusively on the UK. The sole treatment of anti-environmentalism within ecocriticism comes from the United States (Buell), just like the various exposés of climate scepticism discussed in the Introduction. As this chapter will show, British climate scepticism is possessed of a prehistory and some distinctive local features that reward closer inspection. Nevertheless, the Anglo-American axis of organized anti-environmentalism is obvious: British climate sceptics such as Christopher Monckton, James Delingpole and Nigel Lawson are darlings of the American conservative think tanks (CTTs) that promulgate sceptical perspectives, while Martin Durkin’s The Great Global Warming Swindle (2007), a British documentary shown on Channel 4, includes interviews with Richard Lindzen, Patrick Michaels and Fred Singer, all prominent American sceptics. -
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Held on 4 and 5 May 2011
Publication date: 18 May 2011 MINUTES OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 4 AND 5 MAY 2011 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on 4 and 5 May 2011. They are also available on the Internet http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/mpc/pdf/2011/mpc1105.pdf The Bank of England Act 1998 gives the Bank of England operational responsibility for setting interest rates to meet the Government’s inflation target. Operational decisions are taken by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. The Committee meets on a regular monthly basis and minutes of its meetings are released on the Wednesday of the second week after the meeting takes place. Accordingly, the minutes of the Committee meeting to be held on 8 and 9 June will be published on 22 June 2011. MINUTES OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING HELD ON 4 AND 5 MAY 2011 1 Before turning to its immediate policy decision, and against the background of its latest projections for output and inflation, the Committee discussed financial market developments; the international economy; money, credit, demand and output; and supply, costs and prices. Financial markets 2 Markets had generally been stable on the month, against a backdrop of relatively thin trading conditions during the holiday periods. 3 Implied market expectations of the point at which Bank Rate would begin to rise had been pushed back, partly in response to data releases, notably the March CPI outturn. Information derived from overnight index swaps indicated that the market yield curve had fully priced in a 25 basis point increase in Bank Rate by early 2012. -
Matt Ridley – a Lukewarmer's Ten Tests
A LUKEWARMER’S TEN TESTS What It Would Take To Persuade Me That Current Climate Policy Makes Sense Matt Ridley The Global Warming Policy Foundation GWPF Notes GWPF REPORTS Views expressed in the publications of the Global Warming Policy Foundation are those of the authors, not those of the GWPF, its Trustees, its Academic Advisory Council members or its Directors. THE GLOBAL WARMING POLICY FOUNDATION Director Dr Benny Peiser Assistant Director Philipp Mueller BOARD OF TRUSTEES Lord Lawson (Chairman) Baroness Nicholson Lord Donoughue Lord Turnbull Lord Fellowes Sir James Spooner Rt Rev Peter Forster Bishop of Chester Sir Martin Jacomb ACADEMIC ADVISORY COUNCIL Professor David Henderson (Chairman) Professor Richard Lindzen Adrian Berry (Viscount Camrose) Professor Ross McKitrick Sir Samuel Brittan Professor Robert Mendelsohn Sir Ian Byatt Professor Sir Alan Peacock Professor Robert Carter Professor Ian Plimer Professor Vincent Courtillot Professor Paul Reiter Professor Freeman Dyson Dr Matt Ridley Christian Gerondeau Sir Alan Rudge Dr Indur Goklany Professor Philip Stott Professor William Happer Professor Richard Tol Professor Terence Kealey Dr David Whitehouse Professor Anthony Kelly Professor Deepak Lal A Lukewarmer’s Ten Tests A Lukewarmer’s Ten Tests What It Would Take To Persuade Me That Current Climate Policy Makes Sense Dr Matt Ridley Matt Ridley has been a scientist, journalist and businessman. With BA and DPhil degrees from Oxford University, he worked for the Economist for nine years as science editor, Washington correspondent and American editor, before becoming a self-employed writer and businessman. He is the author of several books, which have sold over 900,000 copies, been translated into 30 languages, been short-listed for nine major literary prizes and won several awards.