DIAA RASWHAN

The revolution did not yet enter into the Egyptians’ houses Entrevista

10 11 Diaa Raswhan The revolution did not yet enter into the Egyptians’ houses

Interview by Maciel Santos and Marco Alvarez*

9th September 2012

Dr Diaa Rashwan is the present director of the Egyptian Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. Post-graduated from the University of Sorbonne in Paris in 1985 on Political History, he is a specialist in Islamic politics. In March 2013 he was elected president of the Egyptian Press Syndicate. In the following interview he replied to a standardized inquiry that a CEAUP research project presented to several Egyptian analysts and politicians. The footpage notes are of the exclusive responsibility of the CEAUP interviewers.

Maciel Santos/Marco Alvarez (MS/MA): And we have the former parliament, Do you think the new Constitution which was composed of a majority of can include “the principles of Islamic Muslim brothers and Salafists members. Sharia”1 and would this be feasible in We have now some signs about the kind modern societies such as the Egyptian of democracy they are looking up for our one? In other words, what kind of Constitution; and what we see from this democracy­ do you think it is now discussion it is not really enough to build possible in Egypt? a democracy. We heard, for example, about an article Diaa Rashwan (DR): The problem until cancelling the supervision of the judges now — according to the discussions inside in our elections. This is the opposite the Commission — is that we have very of what should happen. It will be a different views concerning the kind of catastrophe in the near future because democracy we need. We have now in power until now, in Egypt, we had and we have the Muslim Brothers, the current president these judges: the main condition for clean is a member of the Muslim Brothers 2. elections is to have judges and this sort of supervision. The discussion about the * CEAUP. suppression of the judges is an indication 1 In September 2012, the assembly appointed by the military government to draft the Egyptian new constitutional text that we will not be facing clean elections debated the text of article 2 (Part I) . The Salafist Nour Party in the next months. And we have some wanted it to read “Islamic Sharia” instead of “the principles of Islamic Sharia”. Al Ahram, Weeky 13-19 Sept. 2012, p. 5. other problems concerning the jury, in The final version reads: “Islam is the religion of the state and general. The High Constitutional Court is Arabic its official language. Principles of Islamic Sharia are the principal source of legislation.” also a matter of discussion now — some 2 The Muslim Brothers organised in February 2011 the political party “Freedom and ” whose later presidential views, also coming from members of the candidate was Dr. Mohamed Morsi. Muslim Brothers, mean to cancel it. It’s

AFRICANA STUDIA, N.º 19, 2012, EDIÇÃO DO CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS DA UNIVERSIDADE DO PORTO 95 Maciel Santos and Marco Alvarez

all very dangerous3. Also in the Consti­ MS/MA: The second question is about tution, we have real problems concerning development. The “Freedom and Jus­tice” the freedom of expression4 and the press. party got the vote of the popular classes. We are now in this transition period and, as But in the present world recession which you see, we have not even a consensus about is also affecting Egypt, do you think the major standards of the Constitution.­ The possible that it will implement the real battle for the democracy of the future necessary economic growth to increase is running now in the Egypt. Within two or the standard of life of its electorate and three months, maximum, we will see.5 Either to stabilize the new regime? we’ll have a real democracy, a modern one, or we’ll have another struggle in the country DR: You know, in our revolution, when between the different political views. it started, we had three slogans. The first of them was “bread”; the second was 3 Article 176 of the new Constitution about the composition of ‘freedom’; the third was: ‘social justice’. the Supreme Constitutional Court left its composition to fur- ther legislation. It reads: ”The Supreme Constitutional Court So when we speak about developing our is made up of a president and ten members. The law deter- economy we must have in consideration mines judicial or other bodies that shall nominate them and regulates the manner of their appointment and requirements what the Egyptians really want: they want to be satisfied by them.” bread. This means a more human standard 4 Discussion of Article 17 of Part I focused on the need to notify the Interior Ministry before public rallies. Egypt Independent, of life. Thirdly, as I said, came what we call 6 Sept. 2012, p. 3 5 The new Constitution was concluded by the Assembly on 30th social justice. We cannot consider nor November and approved by referendum in 15-22 Dec. 2012. judge any policy out of these two slogans.

12

96 AFRICANA STUDIA, N.º 19, 2012, EDIÇÃO DO CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS DA UNIVERSIDADE DO PORTO AN INTERVIEW TO DIAA RASWHAN

But until now we have nothing to say DR: Let’s start with the first scenario, which concerning the development, which has is the military coup d’état. I don’t think been very low. Plus, the standard of life it would happen in a normal situation. for the majority of the Egyptians has It’s very difficult because the military, decreased. We do not even speak now the SCAF8, had during this year and half about social justice — not yet. What we many opportunities to do such thing. In have from the headlines of the economic some occasions they would probably be policy of the Muslim Brothers, of the actual supported by the majority of Egyptians cabinet (and also of the president) is that to make it. But they did not make it. And we are going to see the same economic lines now, they are accused by many Egyptians that were applied by the last regime. And of having given the country to the Muslim naturally the current discussion with the Brothers. Therefore I do not think that IMF, diffused in the country, creates real the present situation will give them an fears. The lower classes are now afraid of the opportunity to make such coup d’état. consequences of such possible agreement And, if it happened, it would be very hard, because they have already tested mini very bloody. Until now, we have not this agreements. There were small agreements scenario. of this type in the Mubarak and Sadat era: The second scenario: until now, our they created very hard conditions for the regime is playing with the superstructure,­ lower classes and we have forty percent of not with the infrastructure of society. It our people under poverty. means that they are playing with politics, Shortly, I think we have had until now not with the basic demands of the people. economic policies similar to those under They are also playing with foreign policy: the Mubarak era6. going to China, to Ethiopia, to Saudi Arabia. Making arrangements for the MS/MA: Of these three possible scena­ regime but not speaking about social rios, which do you think it is more risky and economic issues. And these are the for a future Egyptian parliamentary main demands of the Egyptians, as I told democracy? you. Now, if we take the parliamentary - a military takeover, similar to the elections’ results and the presidential Algerian one in 1992; elections’ results, we see that both the - the failure of the Muslim Brother’s Muslim Brothers and Salafists lost about government to satisfy the popular eight million votes9. From the eighteen demands and an electoral shift towards and a half million in the parliamentary the Salafists Nour Party; elections they came to thirteen and a half - a process of Ikhwanisation7 of the million votes in the second round of the State, leading to a hegemony similar to Morsi’s election but of these votes, about that of the AKP party, in Turkey. three million are not Islamists. We can speak about no more than ten or eleven millions of Islamic vote. So they had a 6 In early September, it was expected that the Egyptian pound would shortly be strongly devaluated, being then at its lowest point since December 2004. Higher unemployment 8 English acronym for Supreme Command of the Armed and rising food prices were the expected consequences. “A Forces, the military junta that took the power in February Popular Campaign to Drop Egypt’s Debt is on the move”. 2011, after the resignation of President Mubarak. Egypt Independent, 6 Sept. 2013, p. 10. 9 Dr Raswhan compares the results of the first Parliamentary 7 From Ikhwan, the Arabic word for Brotherhood. The term has elections (January 2012) with those of the Presidential being used by the Egyptian English press. elections (23-24 May 2012).

AFRICANA STUDIA, N.º 19, 2012, EDIÇÃO DO CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS DA UNIVERSIDADE DO PORTO 97 Maciel Santos and Marco Alvarez

decrease of about ten or eight million that may change their homes, their bodies, votes. This was the result of the activities their children, their health, their edu­ and actions of the Parliament10, which was cation. Nothing that shocks them, nothing considered very bad by the Egyptians and radical. never responded to their demands. My This was not the case of the Nasser feeling is that their popularity decreased revo­lution, of July 1952. In September, because the Egyptians expected from Dr. Nasser started the agrarian reform and Morsi and from the Muslim Brothers many at the time people felt that something things, of the kind they stated in their had changed. 11 Until now, nothing has plan for the first hundred days. Every day changed.12 So, I think that we will face we have a different date for it to start and 11 Law 178 of 1952 started the land-reform legislation, which the Egyptians feel now they are not really limited individual land ownership to 200 feddans. The Nas- serious. ser landed reform was reversed by the Mubarak regime by law 96/1992 which gave pre-Nasser landowners the “incon- The revolution did not yet enter into the testable” right to take back their land. Around one million Egyptians’ houses. They are only watching Egyptian peasants lost their land after its implementation in 1996. In 2000, over 200 deaths and 1500 injuries may be in- the revolution on the television: discus­ putted to rural violence. After the 2011 revolution, a farmer’s sions among the elites about freedom of NGO “Sons of the Soil” plans the creation of cooperatives. Egypt Independent, 13 Sept. 2012, pp. 12-13. expression, etc, but nothing else. Nothing 12 Shortly after this interview, at Farmers Day, President Morsi pledged to cancel the peasant debts inferior to LE 10 000 (which would affect around 44 000 peasants). Still, 10 I.e., the Constitutional Assembly which followed the he left the decision for the bankers: “I hope the Bank for Parliament dissolved by the SCAF. The Freedom and Justice Development and Agricultural Credit will implement this representatives still kept a majority in this Assembly. decree.” Al Ahram Weekly, 13-19 Sept. 2012, p. 3.

13

98 AFRICANA STUDIA, N.º 19, 2012, EDIÇÃO DO CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS DA UNIVERSIDADE DO PORTO AN INTERVIEW TO DIAA RASWHAN

more of the decrease of the Muslim MS/MA: Viewed from abroad, Egyptian Brothers’ popularity, especially in the politics looks very unstable. The new next few months, i.e., in the parliamentary parties have short lives and they often elections. The real problem will be the collapse or merge. Why is it so difficult reaction of them in face of such decrease for the opposition to organize itself of their popularity. They are now real into political platforms? nervous and even preparing special laws, such as the emergency law, for DR: This is part of our heritage under which they have already achieved a new Mubarak. The Mubarak regime weakened version by the cabinet. And I am afraid all the legal political parties. And that they will try to compensate this the rest of the weakness came from lack of popularity by intervening in the themselves, from inside. Now, after elections and by defrauding them. The the revolution we have dozens of new changes in the judges’ supervision give political parties without any kind of us a real and dangerous indicator about experience and sometimes even without this possibility. real programs or defined ideology. It has The last scenario, the “Ikwhanization” of been a new experience for all of them. the State. We have seen many examples After president Morsi’s arrival they felt towards this direction in the Egyptian that they were in real danger and we have press: in the nomination of governors now some coalition blocs:13; the Popular and in the cabinet… but I think this will Current of Hamdeen Sabbahi14, the Destour be very dangerous for them, more than party of Dr. ElBaradei15; the Conference for society, because the Egyptians are Party of Ayman Nour, Osama Ghazali, not calm in face of what it is happening and Amr Moussa16; the Tagammu, the now. And one of the problems of the leftist coalition composed of nine political Muslim Brothers is that they have not parties. This means we have now clear enough people. I mean, they are not blocs. They have already started discus- enough to fulfill the superior staff or sions among them and I think that within even the middle staff. We have in this perhaps days or weeks, maximum, we will country about six million or more people have more coalitions than it was the case working in the civil services and in the in the last elections. public sector. And within the structures of the high administration, more than half a million people. Well, all the 13 Most of the political forces named below, which already members of the Muslim Brothers are resulted from the coalition of smaller parties, were being around half a million people – note, all registered at the time. That was for instance the case of the Popular Current (mainly populist) and of the Revolutionary the members. So, this will not be an easy Democratic Coalition (mainly socialist), both registered in task although to create loyalties will be September 2012. 14 A center–left coalition which included the Popular Alliance one of their tactics. Anyway, I think that Socialist Party, the , the Egyptian Social in a very short time the whole process Democrat party and the Tagammu Party. 15 A centrist coalition rallied around Dr. Mohamed ElBara- would bring very negative reactions dei, former Director of the Atomic Energy International and would even touch the stability of Agency. 16 A liberal coalition organized by a former oppositionist the State itself. You know, we have a candidate against Mubarak, Dr. Ayman Nour, who was imprisoned in 2005 and released in 2009. He was a very heavy State and it is not easy to member of the Constitutional Assembly and founder of play with it, at least within a short time. the El Ghad Party.

AFRICANA STUDIA, N.º 19, 2012, EDIÇÃO DO CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS DA UNIVERSIDADE DO PORTO 99 Maciel Santos and Marco Alvarez

MS/MA: Do you think that it is possible Libya, which is our neighbor, to Morocco, — with this government or any other nothing happened so far. Then, until now, — to have a new foreign policy more we have had not a real foreign policy — we South-South oriented and less directed just had visits. We have some imitation by the Western framework which of Nasser’s era, but without its contents. prevailed during the Sadat-Mubarak Nasser visited China, and he was in the era? making of Bandung, in 1955, but that was a policy, not just visits. Until now there is a DR: Until now the foreign policy of Egypt very vague foreign policy and I think it will under Morsi is not clear. Here in our Center stay this way for a while until the actual we are preparing a national conference power of Egypt elaborates its own internal about the Egyptian foreign policy under policy. You cannot make a foreign policy Morsi. This will be in order to know what without having your main internal policy, these policies are, especially what will be because there’s a real link between them. the point of harmonization between them. The first visits of president Morsi — to MS/MA: Do you think there will be China, to Iran, to Saudi Arabia — gave changes in the Egyptian-Israeli rela­ the impression (at least to me) that in tions and a new start of the Palestinian spite of the Muslim Brothers were against process or will it all remain — as it can Nasser, they were now going on the same be inferred from what you have just line. This is a non-aligned line but in those said — within the previous status quo? visits it was not clear what kind of foreign policy it was meant: they are visiting Iran DR: This is one real dilemma for president but attacking the policy of Iran — in Morsi. I think is the main reason for the Teheran; they are going to China, which is United States administration to support Communist but they are Islamist, etc. the Muslim Brothers’ government of Egypt Concerning the United States foreign is their attitude vis-à-vis Israel. And I think policy, what is clear until now is that they discussed it even before the elections there is a real mutual interest. A strategic, — there were many meetings between military, security, economic interest, with American officials and the leaders of the mutual visits (our President will be in Muslim Brothers. Anyone familiar to the the United States in the beginning of American foreign policy in the Middle October).17 Yet, until now we have never East understands that their main interest heard of the European Union. It does is Israel — even before oil and before the not appear, even in the discourse. In fact, Suez Canal. It was acknowledged that something is lacking in our foreign policy: Hamas is a part of the Muslim Brothers. about Sudan, about Northern Africa: from Therefore, the American idea of the main mission for the Muslim Brothers is to 17 “We got a clear message that Egypt is open for business” have them implementing the Camp David stated Michael Foreman, deputy assistant of President agreement, which after 1979 has failed. Obama and member of a 110 US delegation that visited Cairo by mid-September 2012. Direct US investment in They want Camp David under a new frame Egypt is expected to grow and a debt swap arrangement and if it happens by the Muslim Brothers is being discussed, whereby Egypt “would be required to continue to repay its obligations to the US via a special it will be the final solution. This is how the fund that could only be spent on US-coordinated assis- tance programmes benefiting Egypt.” Al-Ahram Weeky, Americans and the Israelis understand 13-19 Sept. 2012. it. I think they will push Morsi but not

100 AFRICANA STUDIA, N.º 19, 2012, EDIÇÃO DO CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS DA UNIVERSIDADE DO PORTO AN INTERVIEW TO DIAA RASWHAN

now. They are giving him some time, crisis was. He was, I think, intimidated probably six months from his election on. by the Egyptian militaries, which had At the end of this year, after the American at that time another point of view and presidential elections, they will start the wanted to resolve it by diplomatic tools. serious discussion about the future of the But now, and officially in Teheran18, Middle East process. By this time, I think president Morsi spoke frankly and clearly. that they will have finished with the Syrian Considering the historical conflicts question. Then it will be a very suitable between Muslim Brothers and the Syrian time to implement the Camp David frame regime — since 1982, year of the first and I think there must have been promises revolt in Syria against Assad’s father of this sort made by the Muslim Brothers —, considering the views of the actual to the Americans. Islamist movement who want to push the Syrian regime by force, considering MS/MA: You have already answered the coordination between Egypt, Saudi part of our last question, which is Arabia and the American policy, Egypt precisely about the Syrian question. If has right now chosen his camp. In spite the interpretation you are making of of the Egyptian government statements this foreign policy is correct, then the in favor of keeping diplomatic initiatives Muslim Brother’s alignment with the within a calm atmosphere, the reality is United States administration and the that they are now aligned. Recently it was European Union about Syria is almost a heard that some Islamists — in fact, total. only a few — had been recruited in Egypt to fight against the Syrian regime. DR: Yes! If you remember the first days of president Morsi after his election, 18 President Morsi made this statement during his short visit to you will remark that he did not declare Iran in 11 September 2012 at the opening of the Non Aligned what his real position vis-à-vis the Syrian Movement summit. Al Ahram Weeky, 6-12 Sept. 2012.

AFRICANA STUDIA, N.º 19, 2012, EDIÇÃO DO CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS DA UNIVERSIDADE DO PORTO 101