Financial Risk Management
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Liquidity Shock: the Hidden Risk in Modern Markets March 2018
Investment Intelligence Liquidity Shock: The Hidden Risk in Modern Markets March 2018 Introduction Post-crisis changes to regulations and market Key Takeaways structure have combined with innovations in technology and financial products to make global Today’s markets contain hidden risks that markets more robust and efficient. Despite this increase vulnerability to volatility spikes and progress, today’s markets still contain risks that liquidity shortages. increase vulnerability to volatility spikes, episodic The main sources of these risks are financial Steven Malin, PhD disappearances of liquidity and, potentially, another product innovations, automated and algorithmic Director liquidity crisis. The main sources of these risks are trading practices and regulatory adjustments Senior Investment the ongoing stream of financial product innovations, Strategist put in place to strengthen markets after the automated and algorithmic trading practices and, Global Economics 2008 crisis. & Strategy ironically, some of the very regulatory adjustments put in place to strengthen markets after the Also contributing to more “accident prone” 2008 crisis. markets are diminished bank bond inventories, Together, these factors have the potential to turn the growth of high-frequency trading, and the a small market disruption into a rapid collapse of proliferation of ETFs and rules-based trading asset prices—a danger that became all too real strategies. to investors during the sudden and dramatic reappearance of market volatility in February These risks could be exacerbated in coming 2018. Over the coming decade, these risks could years by unprecedented “quantitative be exacerbated by unprecedented “quantitative tightening” by central banks. tightening” by central banks that could cause funding Institutional investors should act now to account liquidity and, ultimately, market liquidity to shrink. -
Financial Literacy and Portfolio Diversification
WORKING PAPER NO. 212 Financial Literacy and Portfolio Diversification Luigi Guiso and Tullio Jappelli January 2009 University of Naples Federico II University of Salerno Bocconi University, Milan CSEF - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS – UNIVERSITY OF NAPLES 80126 NAPLES - ITALY Tel. and fax +39 081 675372 – e-mail: [email protected] WORKING PAPER NO. 212 Financial Literacy and Portfolio Diversification Luigi Guiso and Tullio Jappelli Abstract In this paper we focus on poor financial literacy as one potential factor explaining lack of portfolio diversification. We use the 2007 Unicredit Customers’ Survey, which has indicators of portfolio choice, financial literacy and many demographic characteristics of investors. We first propose test-based indicators of financial literacy and document the extent of portfolio under-diversification. We find that measures of financial literacy are strongly correlated with the degree of portfolio diversification. We also compare the test-based degree of financial literacy with investors’ self-assessment of their financial knowledge, and find only a weak relation between the two measures, an issue that has gained importance after the EU Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MIFID) has required financial institutions to rate investors’ financial sophistication through questionnaires. JEL classification: E2, D8, G1 Keywords: Financial literacy, Portfolio diversification. Acknowledgements: We are grateful to the Unicredit Group, and particularly to Daniele Fano and Laura Marzorati, for letting us contribute to the design and use of the UCS survey. European University Institute and CEPR. Università di Napoli Federico II, CSEF and CEPR. Table of contents 1. Introduction 2. The portfolio diversification puzzle 3. The data 4. -
The Challenges of Risk Management in Diversified Financial Companies
Christine M. Cumming and Beverly J. Hirtle The Challenges of Risk Management in Diversified Financial Companies • Although the benefits of a consolidated, or n recent years, financial institutions and their supervisors firmwide, system of risk management are Ihave placed increased emphasis on the importance of widely recognized, financial firms have consolidated risk management. Consolidated risk traditionally taken a more segmented management—sometimes also called integrated or approach to risk measurement and control. enterprisewide risk management—can have many specific meanings, but in general it refers to a coordinated process for • The cost of integrating information across measuring and managing risk on a firmwide basis. Interest in business lines and the existence of regulatory consolidated risk management has arisen for a variety of barriers to moving capital and liquidity within reasons. Advances in information technology and financial a financial organization appear to have engineering have made it possible to quantify risks more discouraged firms from adopting consolidated precisely. The wave of mergers—both in the United States and risk management. overseas—has resulted in significant consolidation in the financial services industry as well as in larger, more complex financial institutions. The recently enacted Gramm-Leach- • In addition, there are substantial conceptual Bliley Act seems likely to heighten interest in consolidated risk and technical challenges to be overcome in management, as the legislation opens the door to combinations developing risk management systems that of financial activities that had previously been prohibited. can assess and quantify different types of risk This article examines the economic rationale for managing across a wide range of business activities. -
Post-Modern Portfolio Theory Supports Diversification in an Investment Portfolio to Measure Investment's Performance
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Rasiah, Devinaga Article Post-modern portfolio theory supports diversification in an investment portfolio to measure investment's performance Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis Provided in Cooperation with: Scienpress Ltd, London Suggested Citation: Rasiah, Devinaga (2012) : Post-modern portfolio theory supports diversification in an investment portfolio to measure investment's performance, Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, ISSN 2241-0996, International Scientific Press, Vol. 1, Iss. 1, pp. 69-91 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/58003 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend -
Tuesday July 30, 1996
7±30±96 Tuesday Vol. 61 No. 147 July 30, 1996 Pages 39555±39838 federal register 1 II Federal Register / Vol. 61, No. 147 / Tuesday, July 30, 1996 SUBSCRIPTIONS AND COPIES PUBLIC Subscriptions: Paper or fiche 202±512±1800 FEDERAL REGISTER Published daily, Monday through Friday, Assistance with public subscriptions 512±1806 (not published on Saturdays, Sundays, or on official holidays), by General online information 202±512±1530 the Office of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration, Washington, DC 20408, under the Federal Register Single copies/back copies: Act (49 Stat. 500, as amended; 44 U.S.C. Ch. 15) and the Paper or fiche 512±1800 regulations of the Administrative Committee of the Federal Register Assistance with public single copies 512±1803 (1 CFR Ch. I). Distribution is made only by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC FEDERAL AGENCIES 20402. Subscriptions: The Federal Register provides a uniform system for making Paper or fiche 523±5243 available to the public regulations and legal notices issued by Assistance with Federal agency subscriptions 523±5243 Federal agencies. These include Presidential proclamations and For other telephone numbers, see the Reader Aids section Executive Orders and Federal agency documents having general applicability and legal effect, documents required to be published at the end of this issue. by act of Congress and other Federal agency documents of public interest. Documents are on file for public inspection in the Office of the Federal Register the day before they are published, unless earlier filing is requested by the issuing agency. -
Barings Bank Disaster Man Family of Merchants and Bankers
VOICES ON... Korn Ferry Briefings The Voice of Leadership HISTORY Baring, a British-born member of the famed Ger- January 17, 1995, the devastating earthquake in Barings Bank Disaster man family of merchants and bankers. Barings Kobe sent the Nikkei tumbling, and Leeson’s losses was England’s oldest merchant bank; it financed reached £827 million, more than the entire capital the Napoleonic Wars and the Louisiana Purchase, and reserve funds of the bank. A young rogue trader brings down a 232-year-old bank. and helped finance the United States government Leeson and his wife fled Singapore, trying to “I’m sorry,” he says. during the War of 1812. At its peak, it was a global get back to London, and made it as far as Frankfurt financial institution with a powerful influence on airport, where he was arrested. He fought extradi- the world’s economy. tion back to Singapore for nine months but was BY GLENN RIFKIN Leeson, who grew up in the middle-class eventually returned, tried, and found guilty. He was London suburb of Watford, began his career in sentenced to six years in prison and served more the mid-1980s as a clerk with Coutts, the royal than four years. His wife divorced him, and he was bank, followed by a succession of jobs at other diagnosed with colon cancer while in prison, which banks, before landing at Barings. Ambitious and got him released early. He survived treatment and aggressive, he was quickly promoted settled in Galway, Ireland. In the past to the trading floor, and in 1992 he was “WE WERE 24 years, Leeson remarried and had two appointed manager of a new operation sons. -
Financial Risk Management Insights CGI & Aalto University Collaboration
Financial Risk Management Insights CGI & Aalto University Collaboration Financial Risk Management Insights - CGI & Aalto University Collaboration ABSTRACT As worldwide economy is facing far-reaching impacts aggravated by the global COVID-19 pandemic, the financial industry faces challenges that exceeds anything we have seen before. Record unemployment and the likelihood of increasing loan defaults have put significant pressure on financial institutions to rethink their lending programs and practices. The good news is that financial sector has always adapted to new ways of working. Amidst the pandemic crisis, CGI decided to collaborate with Aalto University in looking for ways to challenge conventional ideas and coming up with new, innovative approaches and solutions. During the summer of 2020, Digital Business Master Class (DBMC) students at Aalto University researched the applicability and benefits of new technologies to develop financial institutions’ risk management. The graduate-level students with mix of nationalities and areas of expertise examined the challenge from multiple perspectives and through business design methods in cooperation with CGI. The goal was to present concept level ideas and preliminary models on how to predict and manage financial risks more effectively and real-time. As a result, two DBMC student teams delivered reports outlining the opportunities of emerging technologies for financial institutions’ risk assessments beyond traditional financial risk management. 2 CONTENTS Introduction 4 Background 5 Concept -
Systemic Moral Hazard Beneath the Financial Crisis
Seton Hall University eRepository @ Seton Hall Law School Student Scholarship Seton Hall Law 5-1-2014 Systemic Moral Hazard Beneath The inF ancial Crisis Xiaoming Duan Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.shu.edu/student_scholarship Recommended Citation Duan, Xiaoming, "Systemic Moral Hazard Beneath The inF ancial Crisis" (2014). Law School Student Scholarship. 460. https://scholarship.shu.edu/student_scholarship/460 The financial crisis in 2008 is the greatest economic recession since the "Great Depression of the 1930s." The federal government has pumped $700 billion dollars into the financial market to save the biggest banks from collapsing. 1 Five years after the event, stock markets are hitting new highs and well-healed.2 Investors are cheering for the recovery of the United States economy.3 It is important to investigate the root causes of this failure of the capital markets. Many have observed that the sudden collapse of the United States housing market and the increasing number of unqualified subprime mortgages are the main cause of this economic failure. 4 Regulatory responses and reforms were requested right after the crisis occurred, as in previous market upheavals where we asked ourselves how better regulation could have stopped the market catastrophe and prevented the next one. 5 I argue that there is an inherent and systematic moral hazard in our financial systems, where excessive risk-taking has been consistently allowed and even to some extent incentivized. Until these moral hazards are eradicated or cured, our financial system will always face the risk of another financial crisis. 6 In this essay, I will discuss two systematic moral hazards, namely the incentive to take excessive risk and the incentive to underestimate risk. -
Liquidity at Risk Joint Stress Testing of Liquidity and Solvency Risk
Liquidity at Risk Joint Stress Testing of Liquidity and Solvency Risk Rama Cont & Artur Kotlicki University of Oxford Laura Valderrama International Monetary Fund 1 Solvency stress testing 2 Solvency Risk • Solvency risk is driven by the difference in firm’s asset values and its liabilities. • Bank stress testing, which has become a key tool for bank supervisors, has also mainly focused on solvency risk. • Regulation of insurance companies also focused on solvency risk (Solvency II, Swiss Solvency test). • However, solvency risk does not give the full picture – we have spectacular failures of SIFIs due to lack of liquidity: • Bear Stearns held excess capital at the time of its default. • AIG, which failed to fulfill large payment triggered by a downgrade, was not insolvent at the time of failure. • Banco Popular, which failed through a lack of liquidity in 2017, displayed a capital ratio 6:6% in the 2016 EBA adverse scenario. 3 Liquidity Risk and Default • Liquidity risk: failure to meet a short-term payment obligation. • Default of payment is the legal definition of default. • Inherent risk to instability in short-term funding (e.g. debt roll-over risk) and cash-flows (e.g. variation margin). • Supervision and regulation of bank liquidity: • Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR): banks to hold liquidity provision for expected outflows over 30-day time horizon. • Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR): limits over-reliance on short-term wholesale funding and aims to increase funding stability. • Liquidity stress testing: e.g. ECB’s 2019 sensitivity analysis of liquidity risk (LiST) typically done separately from solvency stress testing. 4 Liquidity Risk Defining liquidity requires the introduction of a horizon T. -
Deloitte ALM Survey of European Banks Practices 2019
Asset and Liability Management in banks Results of 2019 Deloitte Survey Agenda Introduction and context 3 Executive summary 5 Regulatory background 7 Results of Deloitte Survey 10 Survey participants Risk estimation and measurement • Division of responsibilities concerning planning • Approaches applied in relation to interest rate risk • Approaches applied in relation to liquidity risk • ALM model validation • xVA models and adjustments The role of ALM units in banks Other related Deloitte publications 33 How can we help you? 35 Contact 37 © 2019 Deloitte Polska Asset and Liability Management in banksu 2 Introduction and context © 2019 Deloitte Polska Asset and Liability Management in banks 3 Introduction About the survey There were In 2019 Deloitte asked Central and Eastern European 33 banks to participate in a survey regarding ALM solutions applied. institutions participating in the survey. The survey consisted of open and closed 53 questions aimed survey participants at evaluation of current ALM practices adopted on the A large number of Polish market. The questions focused on the following areas: banks participated due to The survey included banks high involvement of from Central and Eastern Polish Deloitte team. European countries 01 Risk estimation and measurement: Division of responsibilities concerning planning The number of participants totalled 33 leading banks Approaches applied in relation to interest rate risk varying in terms of size and business models Approaches applied in relation to liquidity risk Definition of current -
Estimation and Decomposition of Downside Risk for Portfolios with Non-Normal Returns
The Journal of Risk (79–103) Volume 11/Number 2, Winter 2008/09 Estimation and decomposition of downside risk for portfolios with non-normal returns Kris Boudt Faculty of Business and Economics, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven and Lessius University College, 69 Naamsestraat, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; email: [email protected] Brian Peterson Diamond Management & Technology Consultants, Chicago, IL; email: [email protected] Christophe Croux Faculty of Business and Economics, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven and Lessius University College, 69 Naamsestraat, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium; email: [email protected] We propose a new estimator for expected shortfall that uses asymptotic expansions to account for the asymmetry and heavy tails in financial returns. We provide all the necessary formulas for decomposing estimators of value-at-risk and expected shortfall based on asymptotic expansions and show that this new methodology is very useful for analyzing and predicting the risk properties of portfolios of alternative investments. 1 INTRODUCTION Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) have emerged as industry standards for measuring downside risk. Despite the variety of complex estimation methods based on Monte Carlo simulation, extreme value theory and quantile regression proposed in the literature (see Kuester et al (2006) for a review), many practitioners either use the empirical or the Gaussian distribution function to predict portfolio downside risk. The potential advantage of using the empirical distribution function over the hypothetical Gaussian distribution function is that only the information in the return series is used to estimate downside risk, without any distributional assumptions. The disadvantage is that the resulting estimates of VaR and ES, called historical VaR and ES, typically have a larger variation from out-of-sample obser- vations than those based on a correctly specified parametric class of distribution functions. -
Société Générale and Barings
Volume 17, Number 7 Printed ISSN: 1078-4950 PDF ISSN: 1532-5822 JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL ACADEMY FOR CASE STUDIES Editors Inge Nickerson, Barry University Charles Rarick, Purdue University, Calumet The Journal of the International Academy for Case Studies is owned and published by the DreamCatchers Group, LLC. Editorial content is under the control of the Allied Academies, Inc., a non-profit association of scholars, whose purpose is to support and encourage research and the sharing and exchange of ideas and insights throughout the world. Page ii Authors execute a publication permission agreement and assume all liabilities. Neither the DreamCatchers Group nor Allied Academies is responsible for the content of the individual manuscripts. Any omissions or errors are the sole responsibility of the authors. The Editorial Board is responsible for the selection of manuscripts for publication from among those submitted for consideration. The Publishers accept final manuscripts in digital form and make adjustments solely for the purposes of pagination and organization. The Journal of the International Academy for Case Studies is owned and published by the DreamCatchers Group, LLC, PO Box 1708, Arden, NC 28704, USA. Those interested in communicating with the Journal, should contact the Executive Director of the Allied Academies at [email protected]. Copyright 2011 by the DreamCatchers Group, LLC, Arden NC, USA Journal of the International Academy for Case Studies, Volume 17, Number 7, 2011 Page iii EDITORIAL BOARD MEMBERS Irfan Ahmed Devi Akella Sam Houston State University Albany State University Huntsville, Texas Albany, Georgia Charlotte Allen Thomas T. Amlie Stephen F. Austin State University SUNY Institute of Technology Nacogdoches, Texas Utica, New York Ismet Anitsal Kavous Ardalan Tennessee Tech University Marist College Cookeville, Tennessee Poughkeepsie, New York Joe Ballenger Lisa Berardino Stephen F.