Situation in Euphrates River Valley: March 8, 2019

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Situation in Euphrates River Valley: March 8, 2019 Situation in Euphrates River Valley: March 8, 2019 Areas of Control 2 18 Turkey 19 U.S.-led Coalition and Qamishli 15 Russia-Iran-Assad 1 9 4 12 14 Partner Forces 17 5 Kobani 3 Ras al-Ayn 16 Iraqi Security Forces 6 Jarabulus 11 Turkey and Proxies and Popular 13 10 K 22 23 Mobilization Forces 7 8 h Manbij Tel Abyad ab ur R Hasakah Iraqi Kurds iver 21 20 85 24 Tel Afar 27 89 Armed Actors in Syria and Iraq 26 86 25 87 88 90 28 U.S. Adversaries 91 Mosul 92 93 Raqqa 32 31 95 Syrian Arab Army and IntelligenceErbil Units 94 E 96 29 up hrat 33 Russian Forces 30 es Ri 34 37 ver Russian Proxies 38 39 Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps 36 35 (IRGC) 40 41 30 km 42 Iranian Proxies 43 44 Deir ez-Zor 45 46 IRAQ 47 48 Turkey and its Proxies 49 50 97 67 51 98 Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) 68 52 53 69 54 Turkish Proxies 55 56 72 70 71 U.S. Partners 57 99 Kirkuk 74 Baiji 73 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) Palmyra 58 Jaysh Mughawir al Thawra 104 U.S.-Backed Opposition ( ) 75 Abu Kamal 63 106 105 103 Syrian Kurdish YPG Syria 76 107 77 78 79 See inset* Qaim Arab Component ofTikrit Syrian Democratic Forces 80 (SDF) 108 81 109 Key Terrain and Inastructure 82 Provincial Dam Major Road Boundary Tanf 83 Major Border Crossing Rukban 84 110 Ramadi Oil/NaturalFallujah Gas FieldBaghdad Jordan 111 Graphic by the ISW Research Team Populated Locations Military/Inastructure Locations Abu Kamal / Qaim Inset* 1. Elbeyli 38. Tibni 64. Suwayyah 105. Obeidi Post 6. Jarabulus 36. Dubaysan Oil Field 77. Bir Safwaniyah 2. Suruc 40. Sheytiyeh 66. Hiri 106.Rutbah Rawa 13. Tal Baydar 39. Kasra 78. Halba Hajin syria 3. Akcakale 42. Salahiyah, Husseiniyah, 69. Sukhna 107. 'Anah 14. Qamishli Airport 41. Husseiniyah 79. Jabal Ghurab 4. Ceylanpinar Junaynah, Marrat 73. Palmyra 108. Akashat 16. Tal Alo 44. Conico Oil Fields 80. Alaniya 59 5. Tukhar Shagir 43. Deir ez Zour City 85. Toulbash, Ayadiyah 17. Rumaylan 46. Panorama 81. Khirbat Ras al Waer 7. Arima 45. Khasham,Tabiyyah 86. Umm Jaris 18. Malikiyah 47. Kharrat/Thayyem Oil Field 82. Zaza-Tanf Road 8. Manbij 48. Meriyah 87. Sinjar 19. Faysh Khabur 49. Shula 83. Tanf 60 9. Kobani 50. Boleel 88. Kharab Gahash 22. Tal Barak 52. Tanak Oil Fields 84. Rukban 61 100 10. Tal Abyad 51. Boqros 89. Tel Afar 23. Yarubiyah 56. Omar Oil Fields 90. Tel Afar Military Airport Baghuz 97. Tarifaoa Border Station 62 11. Ras al-Ayn 53. Mayadeen 91. Ba'aj 24. Hawal 58. Ratka/Ahmar Oil Field 65 63 IRAQ 12. Dirbseya 54. Qouriyah 92. Bir Asaybi 25. Jarniyah 65. Baghuz 98. Observation Post on Iraq-Syria Border 15. Qamishli 55. Ashara 93. Tel Qasab 26. Tal Saman 67. Shaer Gas Field 99. Base near Dhiban-Qaim Road 64 66 20. Ayn Issa 57. Duwayr 94. Hamdaniya 27. Hawal Oil Field 68. Sukhna Gas Field 100. Base near Dhiban-Qaim Road 101 70. Jirah Gas Field 102. PMF Position near Baghuz 21. Hasakah City 59. Jalaa 95. Kojo 28. Tal Safwak 102 29. Tabqa 60. Sayal 96. Qayrawan 30. Tabqa Airport 71. Arak Gas Field 104. Unnamed Outpost 103 Qaim 31. Raqqa 61. Ghabrab 101. Jazeera 33. Maliha Oil Field 72. Hail Gas Field 109. Wadi Sawab 62. Sukkariya 103. Qaim 34. Aah Oil Field 74. T3 110. Waleed 32. Shaddadi 37. Ma'dan 63. Abu Kamal 35. Kadir/Fahed 75. Humayma 111. H-3 Airbase Oil Field \ 76. T2 © 2019 Institute for the Study of War .
Recommended publications
  • Offensive Against the Syrian City of Manbij May Be the Beginning of a Campaign to Liberate the Area Near the Syrian-Turkish Border from ISIS
    June 23, 2016 Offensive against the Syrian City of Manbij May Be the Beginning of a Campaign to Liberate the Area near the Syrian-Turkish Border from ISIS Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters at the western entrance to the city of Manbij (Fars, June 18, 2016). Overview 1. On May 31, 2016, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-dominated military alliance supported by the United States, initiated a campaign to liberate the northern Syrian city of Manbij from ISIS. Manbij lies west of the Euphrates, about 35 kilometers (about 22 miles) south of the Syrian-Turkish border. In the three weeks since the offensive began, the SDF forces, which number several thousand, captured the rural regions around Manbij, encircled the city and invaded it. According to reports, on June 19, 2016, an SDF force entered Manbij and occupied one of the key squares at the western entrance to the city. 2. The declared objective of the ground offensive is to occupy Manbij. However, the objective of the entire campaign may be to liberate the cities of Manbij, Jarabulus, Al-Bab and Al-Rai, which lie to the west of the Euphrates and are ISIS strongholds near the Turkish border. For ISIS, the loss of the area is liable to be a severe blow to its logistic links between the outside world and the centers of its control in eastern Syria (Al-Raqqah), Iraq (Mosul). Moreover, the loss of the region will further 112-16 112-16 2 2 weaken ISIS's standing in northern Syria and strengthen the military-political position and image of the Kurdish forces leading the anti-ISIS ground offensive.
    [Show full text]
  • Bulletin De Liaison Et D'information
    INSTITUT KUDE RPARD IS E Bulletin de liaison et d’information N°364 JUILLET 2015 La publication de ce Bulletin bénéficie de subventions du Ministère français des Affaires étrangères (DGCID) et du Fonds d’action et de soutien pour l’intégration et la lutte contre les discriminations (FASILD) ————— Ce bulletin paraît en français et anglais Prix au numéro : France: 6 € — Etranger : 7,5 € Abonnement annuel (12 numéros) France : 60 € — Etranger : 75 € Périodique mensuel Directeur de la publication : Mohamad HASSAN Numéro de la Commission Paritaire : 659 13 A.S. ISBN 0761 1285 INSTITUT KURDE, 106, rue La Fayette - 75010 PARIS Tél. : 01- 48 24 64 64 - Fax : 01- 48 24 64 66 www.fikp.org E-mail: [email protected] Bulletin de liaison et d’information de l’Institut kurde de Paris N° 364 juillet 2015 • TURQUIE : VERS LA FIN DU PROCESSUS DU PAIX ? • SYRIE : LES KURDES FONT RECULER LE DAESH • KURDISTAN : POINT SUR LA GUERRE CONTRE LE DAESH • PARIS : MORT DU PEINTRE REMZI • CULTURE : LECTURES POUR L’ÉTÉ TURQUIE : VERS LA FIN DU PROCESSUS DU PAIX ? près le succès électoral GAP) élaboré dans les années Mais le projet du GAP ne datant du HDP, en juin der - 1970, prévoit la construction de pas d’hier, la déclaration du A nier, la situation sécuri - 22 barrages sur les bassins du KCK envisageant de reprendre taire au Kurdistan de Tigre et de l’ Euphrate , afin d’irri - les combats si d’autres barrages Turquie s’est dégradée guer 1,7 million d’hectares de étaient construits, doit plutôt être avec une telle violence que le terres et de fournir 746 MW four - considérée comme une réaction processus de paix initié par nis par 19 centrales hydroélec - de « l’aile dure » du PKK, cher - Öcalan et l’AKP en mars 2013 a triques .
    [Show full text]
  • The Mentioned Above Help to Describe and Identify the Quantity of Water a Contributed by Each Country Sharing the River Basin
    NATURAL FLOW AND HUMAN USE OF THE EUPHRATES RIVER Headwaters of the Khabur Tributary John Kolars Rival claims between Turkey, Syria and Iraq for use of the waters of the Euphrates (and Tigris) River will increase in intensity in the near future as more of the developmental plans of those countries are realized. Before such claims can be arbitrated there must be as complete knowledge as possible of the natural characteristics of the river and its basin made available to all concerned parties. Beyond the physical attributes of the river — some of which will be discussed below — additional information regarding the demography and ethnicity of the populations involved, the history of the area and of the use of its river(s), developments already in place or underway as well as those planned for the future, and the legal, political, and economic issues involved must also be readv at hand. This discussion does not intend to be definitive or complete. Its intent is to outline some critical aspects of one small section of the Euphrates River system. It is hoped by this to indicate the type of continuing research undertaken by the author for the MERI water project. The basic data needed for understanding developments in the basin are the amounts of water available both on the surface and in its aquifers, and on the various withdrawals from these amounts by natural and human subsystems. Such data are usually obtained by records kept at various gauging stations along the length of streams and by well logs. Such records vary in accuracy, timing, and number of years kept.
    [Show full text]
  • The Potential for an Assad Statelet in Syria
    THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSAD STATELET IN SYRIA Nicholas A. Heras THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSAD STATELET IN SYRIA Nicholas A. Heras policy focus 132 | december 2013 the washington institute for near east policy www.washingtoninstitute.org The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessar- ily those of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. MAPS Fig. 1 based on map designed by W.D. Langeraar of Michael Moran & Associates that incorporates data from National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP- WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, and iPC. Figs. 2, 3, and 4: detail from The Tourist Atlas of Syria, Syria Ministry of Tourism, Directorate of Tourist Relations, Damascus. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publica- tion may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2013 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050 Washington, DC 20036 Cover: Digitally rendered montage incorporating an interior photo of the tomb of Hafez al-Assad and a partial view of the wheel tapestry found in the Sheikh Daher Shrine—a 500-year-old Alawite place of worship situated in an ancient grove of wild oak; both are situated in al-Qurdaha, Syria. Photographs by Andrew Tabler/TWI; design and montage by 1000colors.
    [Show full text]
  • Policy Notes for the Trump Notes Administration the Washington Institute for Near East Policy ■ 2018 ■ Pn55
    TRANSITION 2017 POLICYPOLICY NOTES FOR THE TRUMP NOTES ADMINISTRATION THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ 2018 ■ PN55 TUNISIAN FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA AARON Y. ZELIN Tunisia should really open its embassy in Raqqa, not Damascus. That’s where its people are. —ABU KHALED, AN ISLAMIC STATE SPY1 THE PAST FEW YEARS have seen rising interest in foreign fighting as a general phenomenon and in fighters joining jihadist groups in particular. Tunisians figure disproportionately among the foreign jihadist cohort, yet their ubiquity is somewhat confounding. Why Tunisians? This study aims to bring clarity to this question by examining Tunisia’s foreign fighter networks mobilized to Syria and Iraq since 2011, when insurgencies shook those two countries amid the broader Arab Spring uprisings. ©2018 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ NO. 30 ■ JANUARY 2017 AARON Y. ZELIN Along with seeking to determine what motivated Evolution of Tunisian Participation these individuals, it endeavors to reconcile estimated in the Iraq Jihad numbers of Tunisians who actually traveled, who were killed in theater, and who returned home. The find- Although the involvement of Tunisians in foreign jihad ings are based on a wide range of sources in multiple campaigns predates the 2003 Iraq war, that conflict languages as well as data sets created by the author inspired a new generation of recruits whose effects since 2011. Another way of framing the discussion will lasted into the aftermath of the Tunisian revolution. center on Tunisians who participated in the jihad fol- These individuals fought in groups such as Abu Musab lowing the 2003 U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Al-Qamishli the Syrian Kurdish Rebellion
    Cities in Revolution Al-Qamishli The Syrian Kurdish Rebellion Researcher: Sabr Darwish Project leader: Mohammad Dibo Translator: Lilah Khoja Supported by Cities in Revolution حكاية ما انحكت SyriaUntold Table of Contents Table of Contents 2 Introduction 3 Chapter One: The Uprising 5 I. The First Steps of the Uprising .............................................................5 II. Committees and the Parties .................................................................8 III. Challenging the City’s Elders ................................................................9 IV. The Weekly Demonstrations ...............................................................11 V. The Popular Movement’s Setbacks .....................................................14 Chapter Two: Recovery of Civil Society Organizations 19 I. Birati: Fraternity Foundation for Human Rights ...................................19 II. Shar for Development .........................................................................20 III. Other organizations .............................................................................22 Chapter Three: Autonomy in Al-Qamishli 25 I. Introduction ........................................................................................25 II. Democratic Self-Rule Project ..............................................................27 III. Fledgling Democratic Institutions ........................................................28 IV. Self-Rule and the Lack of Democracy ................................................30 V. Silencing
    [Show full text]
  • The Fall of Dabiq and the Fall of the Caliphate
    0 The fall of Dabiq and the fall of the Caliphate Shaul Shay October 2016 Dabiq, which lies about 10km from the border with Turkey, features in Islamic apocalyptic prophecies as the site of an end-of-times showdown between Muslims and their "Roman" enemies based on a hadith. The Prophet Muhammad is believed to have said that "the last hour will not come" until Muslims vanquished the Romans at "Dabiq or al-Amaq" - both in the Syria-Turkey border region - on their way to conquer Constantinople (Istanbul).1 But in October 2016, the fall of Dabiq did not start the apocalypse but the countdown to the end of the Islamic state. Operation "Euphrates Shield" - The attack on Dabiq ISIS fighters fancied themselves as the true Muslims, and the Turkish-backed rebel forces as the infidels. But fears that the thousand-or-so jihadi fighters holed up in Dabiq would fight to the death were quelled, as the militants simply took to their heels and ran, leaving the Free Syrian Army to walk in without much of a battle.2 In the operation's early weeks, Jarabulus and Al-Rai became the first two major settlements to be captured from the ISIS. The attack on Dabiq started on October 15, 2016. Rebels have also taken the villages of Irshaf and Ghaitun, which would cut off Dabiq and another large village, Soran – all in preparation for a ground offensive on the two areas. ISIS had been sending reinforcements into Dabiq over the past weeks, including one of their most elite units, known as Jaish al-Isra, which arrived in recent days3.
    [Show full text]
  • A Case Study in Surface Water Conflict Resolution M
    The Euphrates–Tigris Basin: A Case Study in Surface Water Conflict Resolution M. El-Fadel,* Y. El Sayegh, A. Abou Ibrahim, D. Jamali, and K. El-Fadl ABSTRACT rights (Haddad and Mizyed, 1996). This, coupled with drying oases and shrinking aquifers, is likely to cause water to replace Historically, the Euphrates and Tigris waters have been a oil as the traditional driver of conflict in the Middle East major source of freshwater conflict in the Middle East. Origi- nating in Turkey, both rivers flow southwestward through Syria (Mideast News, 1998). and Iraq, to discharge into the Persian Gulf. The irregularity in In the context presented above, the Euphrates–Tigris Basin their seasonal flow necessitates the development of efficient stor- represents one of the critical water conflict issues in the Mid- age and diversion systems to ensure adequate irrigation to the dle East. Turkey, Syria, and Iraq presently share the waters of area’s dominant agricultural sector. Consequently, water uti- this basin. There has been a history of disagreements among lization projects undertaken by upstream riparian countries these countries concerning the nature of these waters, their fair trigger confrontation, leading to hostilities and strained relations. and optimal distribution, and the rights of each nation to uti- These water development projects are best exemplified by the lize these water resources. Turkish GAP project, which provides Turkey extensive control While the conflict among the riparian countries is basically over the Euphrates water, through the construction of 22 dams posed in the context of water, it is inevitably linked with in- and 19 hydropower plants.
    [Show full text]
  • Genocide Awareness Month Extension Activity: Genocide in the News This Extension Activity Is Designed to Provide More Information About Various Aspects of Genocide
    Genocide Awareness Month Extension Activity: Genocide in the News This extension activity is designed to provide more information about various aspects of genocide. It combines social studies content with literacy strategies. Included with this activity are multiple news articles about various genocides. We recommend using this activity after completing Holocaust Museum Houston’s Genocide Awareness Month micro lessons. This activity is recommended for use with high school students. We do not recommend this activity for middle school. The articles included in this activity come from a variety of years and places and include news articles and opinion pieces. It may be helpful to remind students to check the date their article was published and to note words in the article they do not know. The articles, with links to the originals, are included below. Discussion questions for each article are also provided. Option 1: All students read the same article Step 1: Before providing the news article, give the students the headline. Ask what they would like to know about the topic. Record student responses where everyone can see them. Step 2: Provide the news article. Begin reading the article together until you reach the answer to one of the questions. Discuss how the article answered the question. Step 3: Have the students finish reading the article on their own or continue reading as a group, marking answers to the students’ questions. Step 4: Review the questions and answers with the group to have a class discussion about the article. You can also use the discussion questions provided for each article.
    [Show full text]
  • Deir Ez Zor Governorate
    “THIS IS MORE THAN VIOLENCE”: AN OVERVIEW OF CHILDREN’S PROTECTION NEEDS IN SYRIA Deir Ez Zor PROTECTION SEVERITY RANKING BY SUB-DISTRICT Severity ranking by sub-districts considered 3 indicators: i) % of IDPs in the population; Kisreh ii) conflict incidents weighted according to Tabni the extent of impact; and Sur iii) population in hard-to-reach communities. Deir-ez-Zor Khasham Basira Deir-ez-Zor Muhasan Thiban Sve anks Al Mayadin Hajin N oblem Ashara oblem Jalaa Moderat oblem Susat Abu Kamal oblem Svere oblem Cri�cal problem Catrastrophic problem POPULATION DATA Number of 0-4 Years 5-14 Years 15-17 Years Locations Total Children % of Children Total Population Communities 136 Overall Population 12% 27% 6% 400K 45% 895K PIN 12% 25% 8% 329K 45% 740K IDP 12% 27% 6% 68K 45% 152K Hard to Reach Locations 135 12% 27% 6% 285K 45% 638K Besieged Locations 0 Military Encircled Locations 1 12% 27% 6% 37K 45% 84K * es�mates to support humanitarian planning processes only SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 131 communities (96%) were assessed in Deir-ez-Zor issue of concern. Adolescent boys (70%) followed by adolescent governorate. girls (8%) were considered most affected child population groups. • In 7 per cent of assessed communities, respondents • In 100 percent of assessed communities respondents reported reported child labour preventing school attendance was that family violence was an issue of concern. Adolescent girls an issue of concern. Both adolescent boys in different age (100%) followed by both girls <12 years and boys <12 years (99%) groups 15-17 and 12-14 years were considered equally were considered the most affected child population groups.
    [Show full text]
  • The Kurdish Question in the Middle East
    Strategic Sectors | Security & Politics The Kurdish Question in the Middle Panorama East: Regional Dynamics and Return to National Control Olivier Grojean its influence in Iran (via the PJAK), in Syria (via the Lecturer in Political Science PYD and its SDF, which now control numerous The European Centre for Sociology and Political Kurdish and Arab territories) and even in Iraq, near Science (CESSP), University of Paris I-Panthéon- Mont Qandil where it is based, but also in the Sorbonne and National Center for Scientific Research Maxmûr Kurdish refugee camp in Turkey and the (CNRS), Paris Yazidi regions of Sinjar. In sum, the past few dec- Strategic Sectors | Security & Politics ades have seen a rise in power of Kurdish political parties, which have managed to profoundly region- The past four decades have seen an increasing re- alize the Kurdish question by allying themselves with gionalization of the Kurdish question on the Middle regional or global powers. At once both the life- East scale. The Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq blood and consequence of this regionalization, the War (1980-1988), the 1991 Gulf War and its con- rivalry between the conservative, liberal pole em- sequences throughout the 1990s, US intervention bodied by Barzani’s PDK and the post-Marxist revo- in Iraq in 2003, the Syrian revolution and its repres- lutionary pole embodied by the PKK has led to sion as of 2011 and finally, the increasing power of greater interconnection of Kurdish issues in differ- 265 the Islamic State as of 2014 have been important ent countries. vectors for the expansion of Kurdish issues.
    [Show full text]
  • Methodology Results Introducfion Addifional Informafion Limitafions
    THE THREAT OF ISIS PRISON BREAKS An Analysis of Camp-Adjacent Violence Before and After the October 2019 Turkish Invasion Faction Control (as of October 9, 2019) Density of Conflict (September 2-October 8, 2019) Change in Conflict Density over Both Time Periods Introduction With the Syrian conflict soon posed to enter its ninth year, the war has proven to be the greatest humanitarian and interna- tional security crisis in a generation. However, in the last year — at least in north-east of the country—there had been relative peace. The Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), along with American support, had consolidated its control of the region and all but rooted out the last remnants of ISIS. As of this fall, U.S. and SDF forces were engaged in counter-terrorism raids, ensur- ing that the now-stateless Islamic State remained suppressed. On the other side of the Syrian border sits Turkey, which considers the SDF to be directly tied to the PKK, a terrorist or- ganization that has been in conflict with the Turkish state for decades. This, combined with domestic political pressure to re- settle the millions of Syrian refugees currently residing within its borders, led Turkey to formulate a plan to invade SDF-held terri- Faction Control (as of November 16, 2019) Density of Conflict (October 9-November 16, 2019) records) while investigating potential escapes. Although over tory and establish a “buffer zone” in the border region. half of the total camps changed faction hands during the inva- The United States, eager to protect its wartime partners and to prevent the destabilizing effects of a Turkish incursion in the sion, none ended up in Turkish control.
    [Show full text]