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Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Upper North Saskatchewan River Basin, Alberta

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Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Upper North Saskatchewan River Basin, Alberta CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON STREAMFLOW IN THE UPPER NORTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN, ALBERTA MICHAEL W. NEMETH B.Sc., University of Lethbridge 2008 A Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies of the University of Lethbridge in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree MASTER OF SCIENCE Department of Geography University of Lethbridge LETHBRIDGE, ALBERTA, CANADA © Michael Wayne Nemeth, 2010 Abstract This research focuses on the estimation of the impacts of climate change on water yield, streamflow extremes, and the streamflow regimes in the Cline River Watershed, and consequently, water availability for hydropower generation in this area. The Cline River Watershed comprises the flow into Lake Abraham, the reservoir for Bighorn Dam, is part of the upper North Saskatchewan River basin (UNSRB). This objective was achieved by parameterizing the ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system. After parameterization was complete, ACRU output was calibrated and verified against available observed data, including temperature, snow water equivalent, glacier mass balance, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow data. After ACRU was properly verified, five selected climate change scenarios to estimate impacts of climate change in this area. Overall water yields are projected to increase over time. A large shift in seasonality is likely the biggest impact climate change will have on water resources in the Cline River Watershed. iii Acknowledgements First and foremost I would like to thank my family; my wife, my daughter, and my parents who have always supported me in my undergraduate and graduate studies; thank you as this wouldn‟t have been possible without your support. This research was support by grants held by Dr. Stefan Kienzle from EPCOR and NSERC. Other financial support was provided by the University of Lethbridge. I would like to thank my supervisor Dr. Stefan Kienzle for all of his time and support on this project and patience with me, which truly made the difference to my learning and progress with this research. I would also like to thank my committee members; Dr. Jim Byrne for all his time and guidance with undergraduate and graduate work, Dr. Larry Flanagan for all his time and thoughts that helped me with several vegetation inputs and thesis improvements. As the external examiner, thank you to Dr. Greg Kiker for his thoughts and input which also helped improve this thesis. I would also like to thank everyone in the Department of Geography that made both my degrees from the University of Lethbridge a success in many ways. Thank you to Ryan MacDonald and Mark Mueller for their help during this project on all the data processing and collection that was done in all the different stages of this project. A special thanks to Ken Perl, Hester Jiskoot, and Craig Coburn for their advice and continued support, and Margaret Cook and Dana Andrei for their administrative support. Thank you to the School of Graduate Studies for their support through the entire length of my program. Thank you to Alison Buckingham from Parks Canada, Mike Seneka, Jon Pedlar, Rick Pickering, Ernst Kerkhoven, and Randy Sweeny from Alberta Environment, Craig Smith from Environment Canada with the data acquisition. iv Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................. v List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. x List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. xii Chapter 1: Thesis Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Research Objectives ................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Thesis Structure ......................................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 2: Literature Review ....................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 5 2.2 Climate Change .......................................................................................................................... 5 2.2.1 Water Balance Equation ............................................................................................ 5 2.2.2 Global Climate Change and the Hydrological Cycle ................................................. 6 2.2.3 Climate Change and the Regional Hydrological Balance .......................................... 7 2.3 Observations of Climate and Hydrology in Western Canada .................................................... 8 2.3.1 Temperature ............................................................................................................... 8 2.3.2 Precipitation ............................................................................................................... 8 2.3.3 Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture........................................................................ 9 2.3.4 Streamflow ............................................................................................................... 10 2.4 Future Trends in Climate and Potential Regional Effects ........................................................ 11 2.4.1 Physiological Response of Vegetation ..................................................................... 11 2.4.2 Affects of Forest Harvesting in UNSRB ................................................................. 12 2.4.3 Affects on Hydroelectric Power ............................................................................... 13 2.4.4 Glaciers .................................................................................................................... 14 2.4.5 Potential Impacts for Water Availability ................................................................. 15 2.5 Hydrological Modelling ........................................................................................................... 15 2.5.1 Classification of Hydrological Models .................................................................... 16 2.5.1.1 Conceptual Models .................................................................................. 16 2.5.1.2 Empirical Models ..................................................................................... 16 v 2.5.1.3 Physically Based Models ......................................................................... 17 2.6 Spatial Representation of Hydrological Processes ................................................................... 17 2.7 Spatial Climatic Data ............................................................................................................... 18 2.7.1 ANUSPLIN .............................................................................................................. 18 2.7.2 PRISM ..................................................................................................................... 18 2.8 The ACRU Agro-hydrological Modelling System .................................................................. 19 2.8.1 Theoretical Principles of ACRU .............................................................................. 19 2.8.2 Physical Processes of the ACRU Model .................................................................. 20 2.8.3 ACRU and Climate Change ..................................................................................... 22 2.9 Climate Scenario Development ............................................................................................... 23 2.9.1 Climate Scenarios .................................................................................................... 23 2.9.2 General Circulation Model Scenarios ...................................................................... 23 2.9.3 Regionalization Techniques ..................................................................................... 24 2.9.3.1 Statistical and Dynamic Downscaling ..................................................... 25 2.9.3.2 The Delta Change Method ....................................................................... 25 2.10 Summary ................................................................................................................................ 26 CHAPTER 3: Parameterization of the ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system and verification of hydrological processes for simulating potential climate change impacts in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada. ..................................................... 27 3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 27 3.2 Study Area ..............................................................................................................................
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