Existential Risks
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Estimating Remaining Lifetime of Humanity Abstract 1. Introduction
Estimating remaining lifetime of humanity Yigal Gurevich [email protected] Abstract In this paper, we estimate the remaining time for human existence, applying the Doomsday argument and the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption to the reference class consisting of all members of the Homo sapiens, formulating calculations in traditional demographic terms of population and time, using the theory of parameter estimation and available paleodemographic data. The remaining lifetime estimate is found to be 170 years, and the probability of extinction in the coming year is estimated as 0.43%. 1. Introduction Modern humans, Homo sapiens, exist according to available data for at least 130,000 years [4], [5]. It is interesting, however, to estimate the time remaining for the survival of humanity. To determine this value there was proposed the so-called doomsday argument [1] - probabilistic reasoning that predicts the future of the human species, given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far. This method was first proposed by Brandon Carter in 1983 [2]. Nick Bostrom modified the method by formulating the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption (SSSA): each observer-moment should reason as if it were randomly selected from the class of all observer-moments in its reference class. [3]. In this paper, we apply the SSSA method to the reference class consisting of all members of our species, formulating calculations in traditional demographic terms of population and time, using the parameter estimation theory and the available paleodemographic data. 1 To estimate the remaining time t we will fulfill the assumption that the observer has an equal chance to be anyone at any time. -
Anthropic Measure of Hominid (And Other) Terrestrials. Brandon Carter Luth, Observatoire De Paris-Meudon
Anthropic measure of hominid (and other) terrestrials. Brandon Carter LuTh, Observatoire de Paris-Meudon. Provisional draft, April 2011. Abstract. According to the (weak) anthropic principle, the a priori proba- bility per unit time of finding oneself to be a member of a particular popu- lation is proportional to the number of individuals in that population, mul- tiplied by an anthropic quotient that is normalised to unity in the ordinary (average adult) human case. This quotient might exceed unity for conceiv- able superhuman extraterrestrials, but it should presumably be smaller for our terrestrial anthropoid relations, such as chimpanzees now and our pre- Neanderthal ancestors in the past. The (ethically relevant) question of how much smaller can be addressed by invoking the anthropic finitude argument, using Bayesian reasonning, whereby it is implausible a posteriori that the total anthropic measure should greatly exceed the measure of the privileged subset to which we happen to belong, as members of a global civilisation that has (recently) entered a climactic phase with a timescale of demographic expansion and technical development short compared with a breeding gen- eration. As well as “economist’s dream” scenarios with continual growth, this finitude argument also excludes “ecologist’s dream” scenarios with long term stabilisation at some permanently sustainable level, but it it does not imply the inevitability of a sudden “doomsday” cut-off. A less catastrophic likelihood is for the population to decline gradually, after passing smoothly through a peak value that is accounted for here as roughly the information content ≈ 1010 of our genome. The finitude requirement limits not just the future but also the past, of which the most recent phase – characterised by memetic rather than genetic evolution – obeyed the Foerster law of hyperbolic population growth. -
Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
Phillip STILLMAN, the Narrative of Human Extinction and the Logic Of
Phillip Stillman Two Nineteenth- Century Contributions to Climate Change Discourse: The Narra- W e a tive of Hu- t h e r man Extinction S c a and the p e g o Logic of Eco- a t 8 sys- tem Management 92 The Narrative of Human Extinction ... Consider the following passage from Oscar Wilde’s “Decay of Lying” (1891): Where, if not from the Impressionists, do we get those wonderful brown fogs that come creeping down our streets, blurring the gas-lamps and changing the houses into monstrous shadows? [...] The extraordinary change that has taken place in the climate of London during the last ten years is entirely due to a particular school of Art. [...] For what is Nature? Nature is no great mother who has borne us. She is our creation. It is in our brain that she quickens to life. Things are because we see them, and what we see, and how we see it, depends on the Arts that have influenced us.1 The speaker is Vivian, a self-consciously sophistical aesthete, and his argument is that “Nature” is the causal consequence of “Art.” Not long ago, a literary critic might have quoted such a passage with unmitigated approbation: “Things are because we see them, and what we see, and how we see it, depends on the Arts that have influenced us.” The post-structural resonance of that kind of claim is strong, and the Jamesonian tradition of treating art as a means through which ideology reproduces itself depends heavily on the conviction that between the knower and the known, there must be some determining symbolic mediation.2 Now, however, it is difficult not to hesitate over the assertion that the “extraordinary change that has taken place in the climate of London during the last ten years is entirely due to a particular school of Art.” Now we tend to take referential 1 Oscar Wilde, “The Decay of Lying,” in The claims about “Nature” very seriously, especially with regard to Artist as Critic: Critical Writings of Oscar Wilde, ed. -
UC Santa Barbara Other Recent Work
UC Santa Barbara Other Recent Work Title Geopolitics, History, and International Relations Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/29z457nf Author Robinson, William I. Publication Date 2009 Peer reviewed eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE CONTEMPORARY SCIENCE ASSOCIATION • NEW YORK Geopolitics, History, and International Relations VOLUME 1(2) • 2009 ADDLETON ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS • NEW YORK Geopolitics, History, and International Relations 1(2) 2009 An international peer-reviewed academic journal Copyright © 2009 by the Contemporary Science Association, New York Geopolitics, History, and International Relations seeks to explore the theoretical implications of contemporary geopolitics with particular reference to territorial problems and issues of state sovereignty, and publishes papers on contemporary world politics and the global political economy from a variety of methodologies and approaches. Interdisciplinary and wide-ranging in scope, Geopolitics, History, and International Relations also provides a forum for discussion on the latest developments in the theory of international relations and aims to promote an understanding of the breadth, depth and policy relevance of international history. Its purpose is to stimulate and disseminate theory-aware research and scholarship in international relations throughout the international academic community. Geopolitics, History, and International Relations offers important original contributions by outstanding scholars and has the potential to become one of the leading journals in the field, embracing all aspects of the history of relations between states and societies. Journal ranking: A on a seven-point scale (A+, A, B+, B, C+, C, D). Geopolitics, History, and International Relations is published twice a year by Addleton Academic Publishers, 30-18 50th Street, Woodside, New York, 11377. -
A Dystopian Booklist* Norwell High School Library Media Center
The Worst is Yet to Come: a Dystopian Booklist* Norwell High School Library Media Center Dystopia: 1. a society characterized by human misery, squalor, oppression, disease, and overcrowding; 2. an imaginary place where everything is as bad as it can be Anthony, Joelle. Restoring Harmony - Ten years after the Great Collapse of 2031, Molly McClure leaves the safety of her family's island home to travel through a dangerous and desolate wasteland to find her grandparents and persuade them to return with her to Canada. Atwood, Margaret. Handmaid’s Tale - It is the world of the near future, and Offred is a Handmaid in the home of the Commander and his wife. She is allowed out once a day to the food market, she is not permitted to read, and she is hoping the Commander makes her pregnant, because she is only valued if her ovaries are viable. Offred can remember the years before, when she was an independent woman, had a job of her own, a husband and child. But all of that is gone now...everything has changed. (summary description from OCLN Library Catalog) Bacigalupi, Paolo. Ship Breaker - In a futuristic world, teenaged Nailer scavenges copper wiring from grounded oil tankers for a living, but when he finds a beached ship with a girl in the wreckage, he has to decide if he should strip the ship or rescue the girl. The Drowned Cities - In a future America that has devolved into unending civil wars, Mahlia and Mouse barely escape the war-torn lands of the Drowned Cities, but their safety is soon threatened and Mahlia will have to risk everything if she is to save Mouse. -
Medical-Legal Aspects of Cryonics: Prospects for Immortality Ethical - Legal and Social Challenges to a Brave New World Genetics - Ethics and the Law
Journal of Contemporary Health Law & Policy (1985-2015) Volume 2 Issue 1 Article 13 1986 Medical-Legal Aspects of Cryonics: Prospects for Immortality Ethical - Legal and Social Challenges to a Brave New World Genetics - Ethics and the Law Harold A. Buetow Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.law.edu/jchlp Recommended Citation Harold A. Buetow, Medical-Legal Aspects of Cryonics: Prospects for Immortality Ethical - Legal and Social Challenges to a Brave New World Genetics - Ethics and the Law, 2 J. Contemp. Health L. & Pol'y 173 (1986). Available at: https://scholarship.law.edu/jchlp/vol2/iss1/13 This Book Review is brought to you for free and open access by CUA Law Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Contemporary Health Law & Policy (1985-2015) by an authorized editor of CUA Law Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. BOOK REVIEWS MEDICAL-LEGAL ASPECTS OF CRYONICS: PROSPECTS FOR IMMORTALITY. New York City: Associated Faculty Press 1983. Pp. 81. $12.00. ETHICAL, LEGAL AND SOCIAL CHALLENGES TO A BRAVE NEW WORLD. New York City: Associated Faculty Press 2 Vols. 1982. 1 Vol. Pp. 286, $32.00. 2 Vol. Pp. 264, $28.50. GENETICS, ETHICS AND THE LAW. By George P. Smith, II. New York City: Associated Faculty Press, 1981. Pp. 241. $28.50, cloth; $18.50, paper. Reviewed by Harold A. Buetow, M.A., Ph.D., J.D. In 1968, the University of Michigan Law Review published an article enti- tled, "Through A Test Tube Darkly: Artificial Insemination and The Law."' Its author was George P. -
An Evolutionary Heuristic for Human Enhancement
18 TheWisdomofNature: An Evolutionary Heuristic for Human Enhancement Nick Bostrom and Anders Sandberg∗ Abstract Human beings are a marvel of evolved complexity. Such systems can be difficult to enhance. When we manipulate complex evolved systems, which are poorly understood, our interventions often fail or backfire. It can appear as if there is a ‘‘wisdom of nature’’ which we ignore at our peril. Sometimes the belief in nature’s wisdom—and corresponding doubts about the prudence of tampering with nature, especially human nature—manifest as diffusely moral objections against enhancement. Such objections may be expressed as intuitions about the superiority of the natural or the troublesomeness of hubris, or as an evaluative bias in favor of the status quo. This chapter explores the extent to which such prudence-derived anti-enhancement sentiments are justified. We develop a heuristic, inspired by the field of evolutionary medicine, for identifying promising human enhancement interventions. The heuristic incorporates the grains of truth contained in ‘‘nature knows best’’ attitudes while providing criteria for the special cases where we have reason to believe that it is feasible for us to improve on nature. 1.Introduction 1.1. The wisdom of nature, and the special problem of enhancement We marvel at the complexity of the human organism, how its various parts have evolved to solve intricate problems: the eye to collect and pre-process ∗ Oxford Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy and James Martin 21st Century School, Oxford University. Forthcoming in Enhancing Humans, ed. Julian Savulescu and Nick Bostrom (Oxford: Oxford University Press) 376 visual information, the immune system to fight infection and cancer, the lungs to oxygenate the blood. -
Sustainable Development, Technological Singularity and Ethics
European Research Studies Journal Volume XXI, Issue 4, 2018 pp. 714- 725 Sustainable Development, Technological Singularity and Ethics Vyacheslav Mantatov1, Vitaly Tutubalin2 Abstract: The development of modern convergent technologies opens the prospect of a new technological order. Its image as a “technological singularity”, i.e. such “transhuman” stage of scientific and technical progress, on which the superintelligence will be practically implemented, seems to be quite realistic. The determination of the basic philosophical coordinates of this future reality in the movement along the path of sustainable development of mankind is the most important task of modern science. The article is devoted to the study of the basic ontological, epistemological and moral aspects in the reception of the coming technological singularity. The method of this study is integrating dialectical and system approach. The authors come to the conclusion: the technological singularity in the form of a “computronium” (superintelligence) opens up broad prospects for the sustainable development of mankind in the cosmic dimension. This superintelligence will become an ally of man in the process of cosmic evolution. Keywords: Technological Singularity, Superintelligence, Convergent Technologies, Cosmocentrism, Human and Universe JEL code: Q01, Q56. 1East Siberia State University of Technology and Management, Ulan-Ude, Russia [email protected] 2East Siberia State University of Technology and Management, Ulan-Ude, Russia, [email protected] V. Mantatov, V. Tutubalin 715 1. Introduction Intelligence organizes the world by organizing itself. J. Piaget Technological singularity is defined as a certain moment or stage in the development of mankind, when scientific and technological progress will become so fast and complex that it will be unpredictable. -
Reducing Nuclear Risks in Europe a FRAMEWORK for ACTION
Reducing A FrAmework For Action Nuclear Risks e dited by Steve AndreASen in Europe And iSAbelle williAmS Featured essay: “the race between Cooperation and catastrophe” by sam NuNN Reducing Nuclear Risks in Europe a FrameWork For acTIoN Edit eD by STeve aNDreaSeN aND ISabelle WIllIamS Featured essay: “The race between Cooperation and catastrophe” by sam NuNN Nuclear ThreaT INITIaTIve Washington, D.c. t he Nuclear threat INItIatIve NTI is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization with a mission to strengthen global security by reducing the risk of use and preventing the spread of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, and to work to build the trust, transparency, and security that are preconditions to the ultimate fulfillment of the Non-Proliferation Treaty’s goals and ambitions. www.nti.org The views expressed in this publication are the authors’ own and do not reflect those of NTI, its Board of Directors, or other institutions with which the authors are associated. © 2011 the Nuclear Threat Initiative All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval sys- tem, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without written permission of the publisher and copyright holder. c over phoTo oF a u.S. aIr Force F-16 FIghTINg FalcoN aIrcraFT courTeSy oF The u.S. aIr Force. phoTo by maSTer SgT. WIllIam greer/releaSeD. ii T able oF coNTeNTS Acknowledgments v Authors and Reviewers vii summary coNteNt executive summary: Reassembling a More Credible NATO Nuclear Policy and Posture 1 Joan Rohlfing, Isabelle Williams, and Steve Andreasen featured essay: The Race Between Cooperation and Catastrophe 8 Sam Nunn chaPters 1. -
Heidegger, Personhood and Technology
Comparative Philosophy Volume 2, No. 2 (2011): 23-49 Open Access / ISSN 2151-6014 www.comparativephilosophy.org THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY: HEIDEGGER, PERSONHOOD AND TECHNOLOGY MAHON O‟BRIEN ABSTRACT: This paper argues that a number of entrenched posthumanist positions are seriously flawed as a result of their dependence on a technical interpretive approach that creates more problems than it solves. During the course of our discussion we consider in particular the question of personhood. After all, until we can determine what it means to be a person we cannot really discuss what it means to improve a person. What kinds of enhancements would even constitute improvements? This in turn leads to an examination of the technical model of analysis and the recurring tendency to approach notions like personhood using this technical model. In looking to sketch a Heideggerian account of personhood, we are reaffirming what we take to be a Platonic skepticism concerning technical models of inquiry when it comes to certain subjects. Finally we examine the question as to whether the posthumanist looks to apply technology‟s benefits in ways that we have reflectively determined to be useful or desirable or whether it is technology itself (or to speak as Heidegger would – the “essence” of technology) which prompts many posthumanists to rely on an excessively reductionist view of the human being. Keywords: Heidegger, posthumanism, technology, personhood, temporality A significant number of Posthumanists1 advocate the techno-scientific enhancement of various human cognitive and physical capacities. Recent trends in posthumanist theory have witnessed the collective emergence, in particular, of a series of analytically oriented philosophers as part of the Future of Humanity Institute at O‟BRIEN, MAHON: IRCHSS Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Philosophy, University College Dublin, Ireland. -
Hayles Program in Literature, Duke University, North Carolina
Response Essay After shocks: Posthuman ambivalence N. Katherine Hayles Program in Literature, Duke University, North Carolina. postmedieval: a journal of medieval cultural studies (2010) 1, 262–271. doi:10.1057/pmed.2010.28 When I began writing How We Became Posthuman (1999), I was drawn to the topic in part because of the intense ambivalence I felt toward the idea of the posthuman. I thought, no doubt naively, that writing would help me resolve it. Far from overcoming mixed feelings, the writing intensified my emotions by bringing the issues into sharper focus. As David Gary Shaw rightly observes, the book is drenched in feelings – feelings of dread, possibility and hope. More than a decade later, my ambivalence remains unresolved. I do not doubt that coming decades will see us plunging deeper into what I have elsewhere called the regime of computation, creating more intelligent machines and more pervasive data systems that, having already transformed the meaning of ‘human,’ will continue to do so with increasing urgency and momentum. What are we to make of this trajectory, and what are the possibilities for constructive interventions? While I have not escaped dread in contemplating these questions, I want to focus in this inaugural issue of postmedieval on what posthumanism can offer to premodern studies, and what premodern studies can offer to posthumanism. In my view, we cannot prevent the regime of computation from continuing to expand, but we have an opportunity to interpret it in ways that may help to maximize its positive potential and minimize its risks. With this objective in mind, I want to focus on three areas that seem to me particularly promising, richly explored in the essays in this collection: futurity, non-human others and distributed cognition.