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Institute of Lit Hydrology • • • • • • • Institute of lit Hydrology • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Natural Environment Research Council REGIONAL MODELLING OF ACIDIFICATION AND PREDICTING REVERSIBILITY by A. JENKINS and P. G WHITEHEAD Final Report On Contract EV4V.0033 UK(H) January 1991 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface Executive Summary Summary of Research 1.1 Objectives 1.2 Modelling Long-term Trends in Acidification 1.3 Comparisons with Palcoecological Evidence 1.4 Linking Short-term and Long-term Response Models 1.5 Regional Modelling 1.6 Ecosystems Modelling and Reversibility 1.7 Conclusions Site Specific Applications 2.1 Llyn Brianne - Wales 2.2 Plynlimon - Wales 2.3 Loch Dee - Scotland 2.4 Allt a Mharcaidh - Scotland 2.5 Loch Chon and Kelty Water - Scotland 2.6 Round Loch - Scotland Paleoecological Comparisons with Model Simulations 3.1 Round Loch 3.2 A Comparison for Six Sites Modelling Dynamic Response in the Long-Term 4.1 A Method of Predicting Future Extremes of Water Chemistry 4.2 Towards Predicting Changes Through Storm Events in the Future Regional Hydrochemical Modelling and Reversibility 5.1 Regional Analysis of Wales 5.2 Regional Analysis of South West Scotland Linking of Hydrochemical and Biological Models 6.1 Biological Responses at Llyn Brianne 6.2 Regional Responses of Trout Survival and Invertebrate Diversity • • • PREFACE • • This report has been produced in fulfillment of Contract EV4V.0033 UK (H), a contract between the CEC and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The work has been undertaken at the Institute of Hydrology, a component institute of NERC. • • • • • • • • • • • •110 • • • • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Within the framework of this completed research programme a number of major conclusions have been reached: (i) The acidity of lakes and streams across a wide area of the UK has increased substantially in the last 30 years. This increase in acidity, and so increased aluminium concentrations, has in many cases caused the impoverishment and/or loss of fish populations. 411 (ii) A decrease in sulphur deposition of at least 30% will be needed to arrest the declining water quality in most impacted systems. Furthermore, to achieve any substantial improvement in acid status, a decrease of at least 60% is necessary. (iii) Land use, and in particular forestry practices, plays a considerable role in the determination of surface water acidity. 411 In addition, a number of modelling techniques have been developed: • (iv) The incorporation of a monte-carlo technique for evaluation of surface water changes across whole regions. • (v) Fuzzy optimisation techniques have improved our understanding of model sensitivity and enabled the assessment of uncertainty within model application. s (vi) Incorporation of hydrological routing has enabled preliminary analysis of short-term changes in stream chemistry • 411 • 2 • • • (vii) The resulting modelling 'package' represents a powerful research and analysis tool which will be essential to existing parallel research programmes assessing critical loads across Europe. 411 _ .4. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 0 1 . 1 Obj ectives The objectives of the research were to apply mathematical models of catchment acidification processes to several key catchments, extend the modelling to a regional scale, link models to an air pollution model and investigate the effects of different emmission strategies on stream water quality. • 1.2 Modellin Lon Term Trends in Acidification • The MAGIC model (Model of Acidification of Groundwaters in Catchments) has been applied to a range of catchments in Scotland and Wales. • Section 2 of this report describes the application of MAGIC to the Llyn Brianne catchments in South-West Wales and to the Plynlimon Catchments in mid-Wales. In both areas MAGIC is shown to provide an excellent description of long term catchment acidification processes. For both grassland and forested catchments the model reproduces observed chemistry and can be used to assess the impacts of land use change such as afforestation. It is shown that afforestation increases the sulphate loading into a catchment by up to 80% and this has a major detrimental effect, increasing water acidity and increasing aluminium levels. The MAGIC model has also been applied to several catchments in Scotland including Loch Dee in South-West Scotland and the Allt a Mharcaidh in the Cairngorms. Section 2 of this report describes the model's applications in these two areas. The Loch Dee catchments show a similar response to catchments in Wales in that historical acidification has been significant. However, the Allt a Mharcaidh catchment appears to be undergoing a transition from a relatively unacidified system to an acidified catchment. The major factor that has prevented rapid acidification has been the ability of the soils in the Allt a Mharcaidh to adsorb sulphate • • 5 • • deposited in the catchment. As this natural buffering capacity is utilised stream acidity will increase and so the Allt a Mharcaidh represents a site in a transition from a pristine, moorland towards an acidified moorland stream. A crucial aspect affecting acidification in the UK and elsewhere in Europe is the degree and type of afforestation. A conceptual model of the combined effects of afforestation and acidic deposition has been applied to two forested sites in central Scotland. Refinements are made to the model inputs specifically to include: increased dry deposition to the forests (in excess of the dry deposition expected for moorland sites) as the forest canopy develops; uptake of ions by the growing forests; and increased evapotranspiration (and thus decreased water yield) as the forests mature. The model is calibrated using a fuzzy optimisation technique (see section 2.6) which incorporates uncertainty in target variables (stream base cation concentrations and soil exchangeable bases) and uncertainty in selecting values for fixed and adjustable parameters which describe the physiochemical characteristics of the catchments. Simulated present day stream and soil chemistry closely match observed values at both sites. The calibrated models indicate that while the patterns of acidification in the two catchments are broadly similar, some differences do exist between the sites in the responses of the soils to acidic deposition and afforestation. It is concluded that the calibrated models provide a tool for; a) comparison of the relative effects of deposition and afforestation on soil and surface water acidification; and b) assessment of the likely effects of reductions in future deposition combined with future forestry management practices. • The model is further used to perform a series of simulation experiments to assess the relative effects of afforestation and acidic deposition on soil and surface water chemistry. The experiments compare and contrast: a) the simulated historical effects of increased acidic deposition and forest growth, both • • 6 • • • individually and in combination; and b) the simulated future effects of various levels of reduction of deposition in combination with the forestry strategies of harvesting with and without replanting. Results indicate that historical acidification of surface waters in areas receiving high levels of acidic deposition has been exacerbated by afforestation practices. Afforestation in the absence of acidic deposition, however, has had a lesser effect on surface water acidification even though the nutrient demands of forest growth have caused significant soil acidification. Comparisons of future forest management strategies in conjunction with likely deposition reductions indicate that, in sensitive areas replanting of a felled forest without treatment of the soil by addition of base cations, should not be undertaken even if significant deposition reductions are realised. • 1.3 Com arisons with Paleoecolo ical Evidence • MAGIC has been applied to a range of catchments in Scotland subject to different pollution inputs and land uses. The calibration technique developed (see section 2.6) allows 1111 sensitivity bands to be constructed around the 'mean' MAGIC output as illustrated in section 3 of the report. In this way, simulated historical trends in pH are compared with data from palaeolimnological reconstructions undertaken at the same sites. Both techniques produce similar historical acidification trends and closely match observed present day pH. Since the two methods of reconstruction represent very different modelling strategies the similarity of the output increases our confidence in both approaches and the independence of the two approaches makes this a good validation of the MAGIC model. • 1.4 Linkin Short-term and Lon -term Res nse Model • A hybrid deterministic statistical approach has been developed for • 7 • • • modelling extremes of water quality in catchments subjected to long-term acidification. The approach is based on the MAGIC model describing long-term variations in mean chemistry. Superimposed on these mean projections are distributions providing information on the extremes of water quality. The distributions are fitted to catchment data using maximum likelihood techniques. The approach is general and can be applied to the prediction of other water quality variables where samples can be regarded as belonging to a parametric probability distribution. A simple implementation of the approach using chemical data and a calibrated deterministic model for the Allt a Mharcaidh is used as an illustrative method in section 4. An alternative approach to linking short-term behaviour has
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