Wind Power Energy in Québec Examensarbete i Hållbar Utveckling 88 and in

Can the province of Québec (Canada) learn from Sweden in the field of power energy? Energy in Québec and in Sweden Justin Rouillard Can the province of Québec (Canada) learn from Sweden in the field of wind power energy?

Justin Rouillard

Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences Master Thesis E, in Sustainable Development, 30 credits Printed at Department of Earth Sciences, Master’s Thesis Geotryckeriet, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 2012. E, 30 credits Examensarbete i Hållbar Utveckling 88

Wind Power Energy in Québec and in Sweden

Can the province of Québec (Canada) learn from Sweden in the field of wind power energy?

Justin Rouillard

Supervisor: Mikael Höök

Evaluator: Kjell Aleklett

Content

1. Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………….5

1.1 Aims and Scope …………………………………………………………………………………….5

1.2 Comparing Québec and Sweden ………………………………………………………………….. 6

1.3 Layout ……………………………………………………………………………………………....7

1.4 Limitations ……………………………………………………………………………………….....8

2. Pollution and Energy Systems …………………………………………………………………....9

2.1 The Situation in Québec …………………………………………………………………………....9

2.2 The Situation in Sweden ………………………………………………………………………….12

2.3 Comparison between Québec and Sweden ……………………………………………………….20

3. Wind Power Energy ……………………………………………………………………………..23

3.1 Energy …………………………………………………………………...23

3.2 Wind Power in Québec ……………………………………………………………………………25

3.3 …………………………………………………………………………...27

3.4 Comparison between Québec and Sweden ……………………………………………………….29

3.5 Advantages and Disadvantages of Wind Power ………………………………………………….29

4. Government Regulations and Incentives to Wind Power ……………………………………..34

4.1 Québec’s Strategy …………………………………………………………………………………34

4.2 Sweden’s Strategy ………………………………………………………………………………...36

4.3 Comparison between Québec and Sweden ………………………………………………………..39

4.4 Other Examples in the World ……………………………………………………………………. 39

4.5 Wind Economics ………………………………………………………………………………... .43

4.6 Recommendations for Québec and Sweden …………………………………………………….. .45

5. Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………………………,.46

6 Acknowledgement ………………………………………………………………………………..48

7. References ………………………………………………………………………………………..49

8. Appendix …………………………………………………………………………………………59

Wind Power Energy in Québec and in Sweden: Can the province of Québec (Canada) learn from Sweden in the field of wind power energy?

JUSTIN ROUILLARD

Rouillard, J., 2012: Wind Power Energy in Québec and in Sweden: Can the province of Québec (Canada) learn from Sweden in the field of wind power energy? Master Thesis in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, No., 60 pp., 30 ECTS/hp.

Abstract: For several years now it has been indicated by the scientific research that human activity has a definite impact on the temperature of the Earth. There are different ways of reducing anthropogenic , to consume less energy for instance, but also to use renewable sources of energy. Since the wind power market is growing rapidly lately, it seemed interesting to compare how different countries have developed wind power energy and how they intend to do it in the future. Sweden has developed wind power energy for a long time and since Québec, a Canadian province, is similar to the Scandinavian country in many aspects; it was interesting to determine if the province of Québec in Canada can learn from Sweden in the field of wind power energy. When looking to stimulate wind power on their respective territories, it seems that Sweden and Québec have very different approaches to the development of that energy. In Québec, the governmental policy is criticised because it gives too much latitude to private companies when it is almost the opposite in Sweden, where the government is charged to have introduced too many restrictions and environmental policies that hinder the development of wind power. The conclusion is that Québec can learn from Sweden and from Sweden’s mistakes in the wind energy sector, but also from more successful countries like and . First, Québec could benefit from having a more decentralised development strategy i.e. giving more power to local authorities and local populations. Second, Québec needs stronger economic incentives providing a stable market for developers.

Keywords: Sustainable Development, Wind Power, Québec, Sweden, Energy Systems.

Justin Rouillard, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden.

Wind Power Energy in Québec and in Sweden: Can the province of Québec (Canada) learn from Sweden in the field of wind power energy?

JUSTIN ROUILLARD

Rouillard, J., 2012: Wind Power Energy in Québec and in Sweden: Can the province of Québec (Canada) learn from Sweden in the field of wind power energy? Master Thesis in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, No.88, 60 pp., 30 ECTS/hp. Popular Summary: For several years now it has been indicated by the scientific research that human activity has a definite impact on the temperature of the Earth. In fact, human activity on the planet, like energy consumption, causes climate change. There are different ways to reduce climate change, to consume less energy for instance, but also to use renewable sources of energy. A renewable source of energy is a form of energy coming from natural resources: like wind power, hydro power and to name a few. They are in opposition to non- sources like fossil fuel.

Since the global wind power market is growing rapidly lately, it seemed interesting to compare how different countries have developed wind power energy and how they intend to do it in the future. Sweden has developed wind power energy for a long time and since Québec, a Canadian province, is similar to the Scandinavian country in many facets; it was interesting to determine if the province of Québec in Canada can learn from Sweden in the field of wind power energy. In fact, it is coherent to compare them because they have almost the same population and are similar in plenty of social, economic, political and geographical aspects. For example, both states have low compared to other developed countries, because most of their electricity is generated by for Québec and by hydro as well as nuclear power for Sweden. However, Sweden is more advanced than Québec in policies reducing polluting emissions and fighting climate change.

Concerning wind power energy, although Sweden appeared to be behind several other European countries, the Scandinavian country was always in front of Québec, part of North-America where environmental consciousness is less developed. In fact, today, Sweden has approximately the double of the installed capacity of Québec. This can be partly explained by the program of tradable green certificates instituted by the Swedish government in 2003 as well as the aggressive renewable energy targets.

When looking to stimulate wind power on their respective territories, it seems that Sweden and Québec have very different approaches to the development of that energy. In Québec, the governmental policy is criticised because it gives too much power to private companies when it is almost the opposite in Sweden, where the government is charged to have introduced too many restrictions and environmental policies that hinder the development of wind power. The conclusion is that Québec can learn from Sweden and from Sweden mistakes in the wind energy sector, but also from more successful countries like Denmark and Germany. First, Québec could benefit from having a more decentralised development strategy i.e. giving more power to local authorities and local populations. Second, Québec needs stronger economic incentives providing a stable market for developers.

Keywords: Sustainable Development, Wind Power, Québec, Sweden, Energy Systems.

Justin Rouillard, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden.

1. Introduction

For several years now it has been indicated by the scientific research that human activity has a definite impact on the temperature of the Earth. In the long run, this impact could be devastating for any living creatures on the planet since it may harm several species including humans and create significant disasters. Therefore, we now need to fight that anthropogenic climate change and one way to do it is to reduce our greenhouse gases emissions. There are different ways of reducing our emissions, to consume less energy for instance, but also to use renewable sources of energy. There are several renewable sources of energy, the main ones are: the sun, the wind, the , the heat from the earth and the biofuels. These forms of energy generate no or few greenhouse gases emissions. Solar energy is used to supply heat, light, hot water and electricity1. The main disadvantage of solar powered energy is that the present technology is not very efficient. Another form of energy, hydropower, is a very efficient way of producing electricity using dams that can retain water and use the motion of this element to generate power. Unfortunately, significant dam projects are not considered totally green because they trigger the flooding of immense territories, which can significantly disturb ecosystems. Geothermal energy is quite fascinating because it pumps the heat stored in the soil and transforms it into electricity. Although that energy has a very high efficiency, it is not widely spread partly because it requires high installation costs, suffers from a lack of infrastructure and can usually only be generated in volcanic areas 2. Finally, biofuels is the term used to define biomass transformed into liquid fuels, made from organic or food waste products. Fuels need to contain 80% of renewable materials to be considered biofuel3. This form of energy is indeed interesting but it still produces a certain amount of greenhouse gas emissions. Also, it has been shown by researchers that a world using agriculture for both food and fuel would not be sustainable4.

1.1 Aims and Scope

All these renewable sources of energy are interesting; however I decided to focus my research on wind power energy for many reasons. Wind power generally means converting wind energy into electricity by using wind turbines. During the last decade, wind power energy has increased tremendously and is expected to continue growing for the years to come. According to the World Wind Energy Association, the global market for wind turbines has reached a new high of 42 GW installed capacity in 2011 for a total of 239 GW worldwide5. The International Energy Agency estimates that 12% of the

1 Renewable Energy World, 2012. Types of Solar Energy. 2 Conserve Energy Future, 2012. Advantages & Disadvantages of Geothermal Energy. 3 Alternative Energy Biofuels, 2012. Biofuels. 4 Johansson et al., 2010. Agriculture as Provider of Both Food and Fuel. 5 World Wind Energy Association, 2012. World Market recovers and sets a new record: 42 GW of new capacity in 2011, total at 239 GW.

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World’s electricity could come from wind power by 20506. Since the wind power market is growing rapidly lately, it seemed interesting to compare how different countries have developed wind power energy and how they intend to do it in the future. Hence, in this paper, since Sweden has developed wind power energy for a long time, I will try to answer the following question: can the province of Québec in Canada learn from Sweden in the field of wind power energy?

1.2 Comparing Québec and Sweden

I decided to compare these two areas because I know them well and they have a lot in common. First, they have around the same population. Québec (Figure 1), which is a majorly French speaking province in the Eastern part of Canada, has a population of 8.0 million7 which is very close to Sweden (Figure 2) with approximately 9.5 million inhabitants8. They also have a low density of population: 4.97/km2 for Québec9 that has an immense Nordic territory with few people and Figure 1: Québec (dark red) in Canada, 22.9/km2 for Sweden10. Furthermore, a great part of source: Où suis-je?. 2010. the electricity production is from hydroelectricity: 96% for Québec11 and 45% for Sweden12. Both Sweden and Québec have a Nordic climate which could possibly influence their energy needs. Québec is characterized by three different geological regions. First, in the north, the Canadian Shield Forest Lands: a complex hydrological network of more than a million lakes and rivers which favours the development of hydroelectricity. Then, in the middle of the province lies the St Lawrence Lowlands region which consists of the best land for Figure 2: Sweden (dark red) in Europe, agriculture and finally in the south-east, the source: Lawline Careers – Map of Sweden. Appalachians; an old mountain chain13. 2012.

6 International Energy Agency, 2012. Wind Energy. 7 Statistique Canada, 2011. Tableau 1-1 Estimations trimestrielles de la population, perspective nationale — Population. 8 , 2012. Population statistics. 9 Statistique Canada, 2011. Tableau 1-1 Estimations trimestrielles de la population, perspective nationale — Population. 10 Statistics Sweden, 2012. Population statistics. 11 MRNF, 2012. Production d'électricité. 12 Ekonomifakta, 2011. Elproduktion. 13 The Canadian Encyclopedia, 2012. Physiographic Regions.

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As for Sweden, the country can be divided in two main regions. First, “Norrland” in the north, which counts as the two thirds of the country, is mostly mountainous and filled with important rivers used for hydroelectricity14. In the south, “Svealand-Götaland” is mainly flat and is home of most of the Swedish population. Also, coastlines are important for wind power energy because the wind is greater there than in inland regions. Sweden has a considerable coastline of about 3 000 km15: Skagerrak and Kattegat straits on the west coast, the Baltic Sea on the south end as well as the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia on the east coast. Québec is also more or less surrounded by water; there are the James Bay and Hudson Bay in the west, the Hudson strait and the Ungava Bay in the north as well as the Saint-Lawrence Gulf in the south. The province of Québec is also home of one of the most important rivers in North America: the Saint-Lawrence River. Also, both states are highly industrialized and their population have a high standard of living. In 2010, The Gross Domestic Product per capita of Québec (about 32 000$)16 is comparable to the Swedish one (approximately 36 000$)17. For a long time, Québec and Sweden have been democratic states electing their representatives. Finally, Sweden is often seen as a country with an important welfare state. Even though Québec is far from being on the same level, the province is the area in North America where the Welfare State is the most significant and where the role of the government is the most entrenched. The reason why I chose to compare Sweden with Québec instead of Canada is not only because of the characteristics mentioned earlier, but also because in Canada the regulation of renewable sources of energy is of provincial jurisdiction. This means that each of the ten provinces has different laws and incentives concerning energy resources. Also, since Canada is a huge country with geographical diversity and a much larger population than Sweden it would have been quite difficult to compare the two countries. Moreover, it is important to note that even though the Government of Canada decided to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol in December 2011, the Québec Government is very much concerned to fight pollution and determined to cut greenhouse gas emissions aiming to honour the engagements previously established by the protocol for Canada. Thus, again in this aspect, Québec is more in tune with Sweden than Canada.

1.3 Layout

In this report I will first give an overview of the evolution of pollution patterns and energy balances in both states since the 1950’s. This part is important because it gives a good idea of the context in which wind power is developed. Then, in the second part I will focus on wind power. This part will include the positive and negative aspects of this form of energy as well as their importance in both Québec and Sweden. The third part will focus on the economics and the government regulations relative to wind power. I

14 Columbia University Press, 2007. Encyclopedia - Sweden - Land, People, and Society. 15 CIA World Factbook, 2012. Sweden Coastline. 16 Statistique Canada, 2011. Produit intérieur brut en termes de dépenses, par province et territoire. 17 International Monetary Fund, 2010. Sweden.

7 will also provide examples of other countries that have interesting approaches to wind power management and give recommendations to both Québec and Sweden.

1.4 Limitations

This report is a comparative analysis of two different strategies for the development of wind power in Québec and in Sweden. The supporting literature mainly consists of scientific articles, public organisation reports and newspaper articles. These sources are mainly less than ten years old, even though some of them have been published earlier and are used for historical facts. When using examples from other countries than the two studied, I decided to choose them from the Western World. Indeed, if other countries would have been used from outside the Western World, the economic, social and political contexts would differ completely, which in turn would make it difficult to perform comparisons. Therefore, this is why Denmark and Germany were used instead of China and India for instance. Also, sub-chapters on advantages and disadvantages of wind power and on wind economics were added to expand the research and hopefully find new paths of solutions.

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2. Pollution and Energy Systems 2.1 The Situation in Québec 2.1.1 Air Pollution Control

The province of Québec has been concerned with the air quality since the 1950’s. At that time, the government mostly wanted to eliminate odours and stains of industrial origin associated with local atmospheric pollution. However, we had to wait the 1970’s to see the government introduce actual laws related to air pollution. In 1972, the Law on the Environment Quality was passed, that was the starting point of considerable investments in more efficient production technologies related to the energy use and the environment18. After signing the Geneva Convention in 1979, the first international agreement dealing with air pollution19, the Canadian and Québec Governments took numerous actions. For instance, they instituted programs to reduce emissions of different substances like sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) in order to fight acid rain. These programs will be renewed with stricter objectives in 1984, 1990 and 1994 since the goals were always accomplished. Again in 2000, the Government of Québec proceeds to readjust the sulphur dioxide emissions to a maximum of 300 000 tons (metric) per year for 2005 and to a maximum of 250 000 tons per year for 2010. Fortunately, we can now say that these objectives have been successfully attained. We all know that forests are an important aspect to fight climate change since trees are known to purify the air of its carbon dioxide. Québec has large areas, especially in the North, covered with the boreal forest. That is why the province is a big producer of pulp and paper products. Concerning the protection of its forests, the Government of Québec seems to be late compared to other States. In fact, only 8.5% of Québec’s immense territory is considered protected area in 2009 while the World average is around 12%20. Since most of Québec’s electricity is produced by hydroelectricity, the province does not have to deal with the pollution of coal or oil powered plants in great number. In fact, it is important to remember that air pollution can come from plants in the United-States or neighbouring provinces. Nonetheless, in Québec, most of the greenhouse gas emissions come from the transport sector (43.5%) compared to approximately 17% for the World average (Figure 3).

18 MDDEP, 2002. La qualité de l'air au Québec : historique des événements marquants. 19 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2012. The 1979 Geneva Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. 20 Guilbeault, S., 2009. Alerte! : Le Québec à l’heure des changements climatiques.

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5,90% 0,80% Transport

Industrial 7,90%

Residential, 14% 43,50% Commercial and Institutions Agriculture

Waste 28% Electricity

Figure 3: Distribution of Greenhouse Gas emissions in Québec in 2009, source: MDDEP, 2008. Inventaire des émissions des principaux contaminants atmosphériques au Québec en 2008 et évolution depuis 1990.

This is a sector where Québec could improve its level of greenhouse gas emissions. The province of Québec has a low population density compared to other countries; it is one of the reasons why we need to use transports a lot. Nonetheless, we should not forget that the province is still guided by a North American mentality of using cars profusely. It takes a long time to change habits but more efforts should be put in stimulating people to use the public transportation system. More money needs to be invested in that system if we compare Québec with other Canadian provinces. In British Columbia, the government invests 150 dollars per inhabitant in public transportation; it is 105 dollars in Ontario, 60 dollars in Alberta and only 40 dollars in Québec21. Also, since Québec’s electricity production generates very little greenhouse gas emissions, it could be a good idea to electrify an even greater part of the transportation system.

2.1.2 Climate Change

The Kyoto protocol is the result of a United Nations convention on climatic changes held in Japan in 1997. The protocol was ratified by 191 states. However, only 37 industrialised countries agreed to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by an average of 5.2% in relation to the 1990 levels22-23. The other countries, even if they ratified the protocol, are considered “developing countries” and it was understood that they should focus on economic growth for the moment. The 37 countries are given much latitude when it concerns the way to reach their target. For instance, they can use clean development mechanisms or emission trading programs. Canada ratified the Kyoto protocol in 2002 and was planning to reduce its GHG emissions by 240 million tons yearly which accounts for 6% in relation to the 1990 level benchmark. However, since very little concrete

21 Guilbeault, S., 2009. Alerte! : Le Québec à l’heure des changements climatiques. 22 Radio-Canada, 2012. Situation canadienne. 23 United Nations, 2012. Kyoto Protocol.

10 actions were done and no objectives were met during all these years, every new GHG objective became harder to meet. In December 2011, the Government of Canada, guided by the Conservative party that had recently gained a majority of seats in the House of commons chamber, decided to withdraw from the Kyoto protocol arguing that it was harming the Canadian economy24. In Canada there is an important provincial disparity in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and in terms of opinions towards Kyoto. For example, the province of Alberta which emits 5 times more GHGs per capita than the province of Québec strongly opposes the protocol. Out of the ten Canadian provinces, only Québec and Manitoba are known to be in favour of Kyoto. Hence, when Canada deserted the Kyoto objectives last year, the Québec Government did not miss the opportunity to openly criticize the Canadian Government accusing them to renege on its promises and fall in line with the United States25. The Government of Québec also voted a motion to underline that Québec will continue to strive towards the Kyoto targets despite of the Canada withdrawal26. For a long time, the province of Québec had the “green province trademark” thanks to the importance of hydroelectricity in its energy balance. Indeed, as we can see in the following table (Table 1), the production of electricity in Québec releases very few emissions of GHGs per kWh.

States Emission Intensity (g CO2 / kWh) United States 710 California 470 France 56 Canada 267 Québec 25 Table 1: Intensity of GHG emissions for different networks of electricity production (numbers in CO2 equivalent), source: Langlois, P., 2008. Rouler sans Pétrole.

In fact, Québec has a rate of GHG emissions 50% lower than the rest of Canada27. In 2006, Québec was also the first North-American state to equip itself with a plan to reach the Kyoto objectives, the most ambitious plan in North America. The plan replicated the European GHG reduction objective of cutting back, by the year 2020, at least 20% below 1990 levels. Québec was also the first North-American State or province to institute a carbon . Nowadays, this tax on fossil fuels brings back about 200 million Canadian Dollars per year to the Québec Government, which serves to finance the public transport system and energy efficiency programs28. Québec was also the second state in North

24 The Canadian Press, 2011. Canada first nation to withdraw from Kyoto Protocol. 25 Lalonde M., 2011. Quebec cap-and-trade follows Kyoto reversal. 26 Le Devoir, 2012. En bref - Québec et Kyoto. 27 Handal, L., 2012. Harper vs. Kyoto: where does that leave Québec? 28 Guilbeault, S., 2009. Alerte! : Le Québec à l’heure des changements climatiques.

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America, after California, to establish a set of ambitious norms forcing car companies to build more energy efficient and environmentally friendly cars. Since 2008, Québec is part of the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) together with California, Ontario, Manitoba and British Columbia. At the beginning, the WCI had been signed by seven U.S. states, but all of them resigned except California. The WCI is an agreement of different jurisdiction towards fighting climate change and finding ways to reduce GHG emissions29. For instance, one of the decisions taken by the WCI is to implement a cap-and-trade system to address climate change. So far, only California in October 2011 and Québec in December 2011 have chosen that sort of system which will officially set in motion in January 201230. The cap-and-trade system means that large industrial emitters will need to reduce their carbon footprint, buy credits if they are above their objective and they can also sell credits if they are below their GHG emissions goal. This system is the starting point of a real North American carbon market that should take form in a close future. Québec is also determined to fight climate change on a local level. In April 2009, the government announced a program called “Climat municipalités” that would provide 10 million dollars to different cities willing to quantify their GHG emissions and elaborate plans to reduce them. In summary, Québec is a “state” that is at the forefront of environmental regulations and climate change in North America. However, it might not be the same story when comparing Québec to Europe or Sweden.

2.1.3 Energy Balance

First of all, when talking about energy in the province of Québec it is essential to mention that Hydro-Québec who manages the electricity production and distribution in Québec is a company owned by the Government. In fact, it was created as early as 1944 to nationalise the private company that distributed the electricity in the Montreal area. Later in 1963, the Government took over nearly all private companies that were operating in a questionable way: high prices, poor service and sky-high profits. The move was also linked to the development of economic nationalism among the French speaking population. Since Québec has numerous important rivers with high potential in the North of the province, it was obvious that hydroelectricity would be a tremendous lever for economic development. Today, Hydro-Québec owns 60 hydroelectric facilities and one nuclear plant which accounts for 36 671 MW31. These numbers make Hydro-Québec one of the biggest energy producers in the World and Québec also exports the electricity surplus to New England States and other Canadian provinces. Therefore, it is now understandable that today 96% of Québec’s electricity production is from hydroelectricity32. Also, as seen in figure 4, Québec accounted for 31% of Canada’s total installed power in 2003.

29 Western Climate Initiative, 2012. About the WCI. 30 Teisceira-Lessard, P., 2011. Quebec goes it alone with cap-and-trade climate plan. 31 Hydro-Québec, 2012. Annual Report 2011. 32 WRCPA., 2000. Hydro-Quebec Serves Area for More Than 50 Years.

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Figure 4: Installed power in Canada in 2003, National Energy Board, source: National Energy Board, 2004. Energy in Quebec: central to change in North America.

On a related note, we can say that the energy balance of the province of Québec is clearly negative. Even though Québec produces more electricity than it needs, the province has to import all of its oil and gas33. In the future, the energy balance of Québec might change. In fact, the discovery of large amount of shale gas in the St-Lawrence Valley and of offshore oil in the St-Lawrence Gulf might make Québec a fossil fuel producer. This could reduce its dependency on fossil fuel imports. However, studies have shown that the emissions of shale gas exploitation are comparable to coal which does not make it a good solution from an environmental point of view34. Also, for the moment, the voice against the exploitation of shale gas, mostly for environmental reasons, forces the government to wait. Moreover, the launching of new dam projects in the North of the province will consolidate the choice of hydroelectricity to meet the growing electricity needs. Québec plans as well on increasing its number of wind power farms, hence wind power can act as a complement to hydropower. To conclude, Québec might have the possibility to diversify its energy systems and benefit from a positive energy balance in the years to come.

33 Lavier, T and Boulva O., 2010. Shale Gas, Saint Lawrence Oil and Quebec's New Energy Balance. 34 Howart, R., Santoro, R. and Ingraffea, A., 2011. Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations.

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2.2 The Situation in Sweden 2.2.1 Air Pollution Control

As early as 1909, the first Nature Conservancy law was passed by the Swedish Government. This legislation mainly stated the protection of “natural monuments” and the proclamation of 9 national parks. This makes Sweden the first European country to set up a national park preserving the wilderness35. In 1964, the Nature Conservancy Act (Naturvårdslag) developed that legislation a step further. It stated national policy guidelines and principles to protect and conserve the natural environment. The areas need to be protected because they are seen as valuable from a scientific and cultural point of view as well as for recreational activities36. These laws concern the conservancy of nature which is very important for the environment and the pollution control; however these legislation acts do not precisely target air pollution. In 1967, the Swedish government finally created the National Environmental Protection Agency to deal with the growing environmental awareness of the 1960’s. Many issues were on the agenda of that agency such as acid rain, the greenhouse effect, the ozone layer and the protection of wildlife37. In 1969, the Environment Protection Act (Miljöskyddslagen) provided new laws against water pollution, air pollution, noise and other nuisances38. Moreover, it is important to mention that the first conference to discuss air pollution and acid deposition leading to international cooperation was held in Stockholm in 1972. That United Nations Conference on the Human Environment along with the Geneva Convention in 1979 were both very important milestones that led to the creation of a framework to reduce air pollution on a broad regional basis39. In the 1970’s, the Swedish government became even more serious about air pollution. They noticed that the emission trends of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which comes majorly from combustion and car traffic, had increased very rapidly from the mid-1950 to 197040. That increase was due to the fast car and industrial expansion but also to the use of oil as a fuel for homes and businesses. These emissions cause problems mainly in urban areas since this gas contributes to the creation of ground-level ozone which affects the environment and the health of citizens. Between 1970 and 1990 the nitrogen oxide emissions have been stable at around 300 kilotons per year. However, after 1990 we can see that the emissions have decreased considerably (figure 5). This is due in part by stricter rules related to emissions from new cars. Sweden was also successful in significantly reducing the amount of sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions since 1970 due mainly to the oil phase-out. In 2008, Sweden emitted only a third of the amount of sulphur dioxide emitted in 199041 (Figure 6).

35 Encyclopedia Britannica, 2012. Sweden. 36 Sand, P., 1972. Legal Systems for environment protection: Japan, Sweden, United States. 37 Gilpin, A., 1995. Environmental impact assessment: Cutting edge for the twenty-first century. 38 Sand, P., 1972. Legal Systems for environment protection: Japan, Sweden, United States. 39 Encyclopedia Britannica, 2012. Acid Rain. 40 Ekonomifakta, 2011. Kväveoxider. 41 Naturvårdsverket, 2011. Sveriges redovisning av gränsöverskridande luftföroreningar.

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Forty years ago, Sweden was one of the most oil dependent countries in the world: the Swedish society was built on cheap oil, used for heating as well as for the functioning of industries. The recovery since then is due to the restructuring and modernisation of the industrial sector, the use of low sulphur fuels but also because of the increasingly important role of nuclear . It is also important to mention that Sweden is greatly affected by transboundary air pollutants. In fact, it has been proven in the 1970’s that the acidification of Swedish lakes was due to air pollutants that originated from continental Europe42. Moreover, in 1998, Sweden received approximately 90% of its sulphur pollution from other countries43.

Figure 5: Swedish emissions of NOx, source: Figure 5: Swedish emissions of SO2, source: Swedenvirotech, 2010. Air pollution. Swedenvirotech, 2010. Air pollution.

Nowadays, Sweden’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are estimated to 47 Mt. This number went down from 80 million tonnes around 1980 and even higher numbers beforehand. Even though the carbon dioxide emissions decreased a little since 1990, the major drop was during the 1970’s and 1980’s. In fact, in 1970 while the world average was still increasing rapidly, the Swedish emissions went the opposite way (Figure 7). The causes of that decrease are oil crises in the 1970’s, the development of nuclear power, the expansion of biofuels use, energy efficiency measures and the increase in overall energy prices. Despite an increase of activity in almost all the sectors of the society, these factors have succeeded in bringing the emissions down. We should also remember that the international climate change negotiations have contributed substantially to that decrease in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

42 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2012. The 1979 Geneva Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. 43 Hare, S. et al., 2002. Air Pollution: Fact Sheet Series for Key Stage 4 and A-Level. 2nd ed.

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Figure 7: Carbon dioxide emissions in Sweden and in the World, source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2011. Koldioxidutsläpp - historiska uppskattningar.

In the field of protected area, Sweden seems to be proactive in order to keep low levels of greenhouse gases. Indeed, nowadays Sweden has a total of 29 national parks which accounts for 731 589 hectares. Furthermore, the Swedish governments even plans to add six more by 201344. In 2005, about 10% of Sweden’s territory was considered protected for nature conservation purposes45. In many countries, the destruction of forests increases the level of greenhouse gases; however, in Sweden, the great amount of forests actually reduces the amount of greenhouse gases emissions46. Sweden is one of the countries with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions in the and in the OECD. The country is always in the best countries whether you count per capita greenhouse gas emissions or emissions relative to gross domestic product (GDP). The main reason to explain these good results is that Sweden’s electricity production is close to fossil fuel free. In fact, heating and electricity production accounts for only 16.0% of the emissions (Figure 8). This is partly because electricity is generated in great part from hydro power and nuclear power, but also more and more by wind power and biofuels. Also, the is nowadays almost entirely generated by biofuels, waste and heat pumps. Sweden still uses a small amount of coal in steel mills. Domestic transport is the sector which represents the highest part of the emissions: 31.3%.

44 Naturvårdsverket, 2012. Nationalparker. 45 The Nordic Forest Owners Associations, 2007. Forests in Sweden. 46 Ekonomifakta, 2012. Växthusgaser per sektor.

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Transport (31,3%) 6,40% Industrial (25,6%) 16% 31,30% Agriculture (11,9%)

Waste (2,8%) 6,00%

Other sectors (6,0%) 2,80%

11,90% Electricity and Heat 25,60% (16,0%) Resdidential and Commercial (6,4%)

Figure 8: Swedish greenhouse gas emissions per sector, source: Naturvårdsverket, 2010. Utsläpp av växthusgaser per sektor.

Sweden has stated several potential solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector, since most of the growing transportation sector is still petroleum based. For example, the Government could increase the tax on petrol and diesel and then keep it in line with the increase in GDP47. Another option could be to invest more in public transportation. However, it is known that Sweden has already a fairly good system. Finally, a long term solution could be to develop vehicles that use new technologies: that are more energy efficient and that use alternative sources of energy48.

2.2.2 Climate Change

Often seen as a leader in environment policies, Sweden did not wait for the Kyoto protocol convention to take action against climate change. As early as 1991, Sweden was the first country to institute a carbon dioxide tax. This policy has proven to be really effective in the years after its adoption. However, in the 21st century, even if the cars pollute less, the amount of cars on the Swedish roads have increased which lead the government to hike that particular tax by 2.6% in 2008. Still this carbon tax is seen by experts as the cause of Sweden doing so well in the field of climate change. “It was the one major reason that steered society towards climate friendly solutions. It made pollution more expensive and focused people on finding energy-efficient solutions”49

47 Swedish Energy Agency, 2008. Greenhouse gas emissions can be sharply reduced. 48 Johansson, B., 1995. Strategies for reducing emissions of air pollutants from the Swedish transportation sector. 49 Fouché, G., 2008. Sweden's carbon-tax solution to climate change puts it top of the green list.

17 according to Emma Lindberg, an expert on climate change at the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation. In May 2002, Sweden ratified the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations framework Convention on climate change50. In that protocol, Sweden like the other industrialised countries decided to diminish greenhouse gas emissions by just over 5% compared to the levels of 1990, the time frame for this reduction is between 2008 and 2012. In 2003, the Swedish government established the electricity certificate which means that he decides how much renewable energy will need to be used by certain dates. Also, Swedish electricity suppliers receive subsidies from the government when they sell renewable electricity51. Already in 2006, the measures put in place by the Swedish government seem to be really successful. Not only did Sweden exceed the main Kyoto Protocol objective by reducing the GHG emissions by 9% instead of 5%, but the country was able to have economic growth of 44% in the same years52. This could prove that environment policies do not always affect the economy in a negative way. However, that so called “green growth” is highly debatable since a Swedish study found out that these results disappear when we take into account the imports53. Therefore, that economic growth with supposedly lower emissions is due to the export of emission intensive production to other countries. The following graph (Figure 9) shows that in 2009 Sweden was the best country when looking at both CO2 emissions per capita (on the x axis) and CO2 emissions per unit of production (on the y axis).

50 Swedish Energy Agency, 2006. Letter of approval. 51 Minx, J. et al., 2008. An analysis of Sweden's Carbon Footprint. 52 Kraemer, S., 2008. Sweden Exceeds Kyoto Targets; Economy Booms. 53 Berglund, M., 2011. Green growth? A consumption perspective on Swedish environmental impact trends using input–output analysis.

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Figure 9: Carbon dioxide emissions in OECD countries, source: Ekonomifakta Powerpoint, 2010. Energin, klimatet och tillväxten - Fakta om Sveriges energiförsörjning.

In March 2007, the European Union countries agreed on a more ambitious plan than the Kyoto Protocol to fight climate change. These climate and energy policy objectives are based on the recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). According to the IPCC, temperatures should not increase by more than two degrees in comparison with pre-industrial levels. These EU agreements contain four major objectives. First, the reduction of GHG emissions by 30% if there is an international agreement or by 20% if there is no such agreement. The second goal is to increase the renewable sources of energy proportion by 20%. Third, the EU countries agreed to increase the proportion of renewable fuels by 10%. The fourth objective concerns the efficiency of energy use which needs to rise by 20%. In 2007, the Swedish government instituted a congestion fee in Stockholm. This means that vehicles traveling in the inner city zone are charged between 10 and 20 SEK depending on the time of the day. This measure was established to reduce the car traffic in the Swedish Capital but also indeed to cut carbon emissions54. In 2008, Sweden’s budget included a variety of new measures related to climate and energy which accounted for more than 3 billion SEK and a special initiative related to climate and development of 4 billion SEK55. In the same year, the Swedish government announced its intention to be oil free by 2020 and a greenhouse gas emissions neutral country by 2050. This

54 Fouché, G., 2008. Sweden's carbon-tax solution to climate change puts it top of the green list. 55 Ministry of the Environment, 2004. Climate Policy.

19 commitment will indeed demand a lot of effort from the government and the Swedish population. A national roadmap is currently conceived by the government, the Swedish EPA and other scientist groups to state the steps to follow to accomplish this tremendous objective, this roadmap should be ready in 201356. In 2012, the Swedish government decided to invest 200 million SEK in a super-green car discount. The goal of this economic incentive is to stimulate the introduction of electric cars and plug-in hybrids in the Swedish market. Moreover, Sweden aims to have a vehicle fleet that is completely fossil fuel independent by the year 203057. Finally, it is obvious that Sweden is a leader country in terms of climate change and we can just wish that more countries would take these kinds of ambitious initiatives.

2.2.3 Energy Balance

In Sweden, it is impossible to talk about energy without mentioning (Swedish for waterfall), an important organisation that first started as a state owned enterprise in the beginning of the 20th century and then became a flexible type of enterprise in 1992: a limited liability company. Vattenfall was founded in 1909 when the Trollhätan canal was restructured and a hydropower plant was built there, it marks the beginning of the Swedish government involvement in this new form of energy58. Until the 1970’s, the state enterprise keeps focusing on hydropower by building several hydropower plants. For example, Harsprånget, built in 1951 was considered the World’s largest hydropower plant at the time. It is only in 1974 that Vattenfall starts building its first nuclear power plants: Ringhals 1 and 2. In the 15 following years, 12 nuclear reactors were built in Sweden; 7 of these are the property of Vattenfall. In 1995, Vattenfall decides to expand its activities outside of Sweden: it now owns a considerable market share in countries like Germany and Poland. In 2006, a pilot project of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in Germany was announced by Vattenfall. Also, one year later, Lillgrund, the huge offshore project located in the South of Sweden, started delivering electricity. Like the Swedish government, Vattenfall announced in 2008 that it aims to be a carbon neutral company by 205059. In September 2010, Vattenfall successfully inaugurated the World’s largest farm: Thanet, located in the . The reason that Sweden chose to go towards nuclear power in the 1970’s was mainly to stay away from the uncertainties of oil prices and because of the nuclear weapons proliferation during these years. Nuclear power remains an important source of energy in Sweden despite the fact that the phase-out of it by 2010 was voted by the parliament in 198060. However, Sweden is also the only country in the World to have a discriminating tax on nuclear power: 0.67 Euro cents per kWh61. This tax represent as much as one-third

56 Ministry of the Environment, 2011. Sweden - an emissions-neutral country by 2050. 57 Ministry of the Environment, 2011. Government invests in super-green car rebate. 58 Vattenfall, 2012. Group History. 59 LaMonica, M., 2009. Swedish utility targets carbon-neutral electricity. 60 Gilpin, A., 1995. Environmental impact assessment: Cutting edge for the twenty-first century. 61 European Environmental Agency, 2011. Nuclear energy and waste production (ENER 013).

20 of the production cost of nuclear energy62. On a long term plan, Sweden seems to progressively abandon nuclear power for new forms of renewable energy. For example, Sweden has been a producer of wind power since 1996; the production has slowly increased to 2 TWh in 200863, which represented approximately 1.4% of the electricity production (Figure 10).

Figure 10: Sources of electricity in Sweden, source: World Nuclear Association, 2012. .

After 2008, Sweden decided that developing wind power energy would be one of the best ways to fight greenhouse gas emissions. Also, since Sweden has a tremendous potential for wind power, the government drastically increased the targets of that form of energy. In 2009, the Swedish government announced that the country should produce 30 TWh of wind power energy by 2020. Already in 2010, wind power production increased by 40% compared to the year before, which now consists of 2.5% of the electricity production in Sweden64. Like previously explained, since the 1970’s, Sweden tries to significantly reduce its dependence on fossil fuel. This decision is to lower the greenhouse gas emissions but also Sweden does not have any oil reserves. So far, we can say that the plan of the Swedish government has succeeded. As we can see on the following graph (Figure 11), in 2009 the World consumed 81% of its energy in fossil fuel compared to only 43% in Sweden. Finally, the future of energy in Sweden seems promising; we can just hope that the country will reach its goal to become carbon neutral in 205065.

62 World Nuclear Association, 2012. Nuclear Power in Sweden. 63 Swedish Energy Agency, 2010. Energy in Sweden 2010: Facts and Figures. 64 Swedish Energy Agency, 2011. The potential of wind power in Sweden. 65 Energy Efficiency News, 2009. Sweden unveils plans to be carbon-neutral by 2050.

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Figure 11: Proportion of Fossil fuel energy in the World and in Sweden, Source: Ekonomifakta Powerpoint, 2010. Energin, klimatet och tillväxten - Fakta om Sveriges energiförsörjning.

2.3 Comparison between Québec and Sweden

The analysis of Québec and Sweden revealed similarities and differences in the field of pollution and energy systems. Even though Sweden was, by far, first in establishing a law on environment conservation in 1909, both governments voted laws relative to air pollution around the same years and were greatly influenced by the Geneva Convention of 1979. Québec and Sweden have reduced their emissions of nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxides and carbon dioxide over the years, but it is clear that Québec still pollutes a lot more than Sweden. In the field of protected areas, Sweden is also doing slightly better: 10% of the territory compared to 8.5% for Québec. In both Québec and Sweden, the transportation sector is the most significant cause of greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, if we compare them to other developed countries, the emissions per capita are low because most of their electricity is generated by hydroelectricity for Québec and by hydro as well as nuclear power for Sweden. When we talk about the Kyoto Protocol, Québec and Sweden were both aiming to fulfill the objectives of the Protocol. However, when Sweden did more than surpass the objectives, Québec will doubtfully be able to achieve them. In the two states, public or pseudo-public companies like Hydro-Québec and Vattenfall were and are still important actors in the development of electricity and renewable sources of energy. Québec and Sweden do not have domestic production of oil and they are both trying to reduce their dependence to this resource. The government of Québec is thinking about exploiting oil and gas fields on its territory as well as invest more in wind power energy. The ’s strategy relies mostly on renewable sources of energy like wind power in order to become carbon neutral by 2050.

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3. Wind Power Energy

3.1 History of Wind Power Energy

Modern Wind power energy to produce electricity is quite recent. Nevertheless, we should not forget that men have used the power of wind for several millenniums. For example, it was used to move sailboats and later to pump water or grind grains with the use of windmills66. In the end of the 18th century, the industrial revolution in England marks a decline in the use of wind power, even for transportation on water67. Later, in the end of the 19th century, the international economy is mostly powered by coal and also by oil. Nevertheless, it is during these years that the first producing electricity was built. In the summer of 1887, a Scottish engineer, Prof James Blyth, used a windmill with sails made of cloth to power the lighting of his cottage68. Later the same year, the American Charles Brush built a much bigger windmill in Ohio; with a diameter of 17 meters, it could produce up to 12 kW. In the 1890’s, we could also see that kind of development in Denmark where Poul Lacour, a meteorologist, built several wind turbines to give power to farms and rural villages69. Unfortunately, for most of the 20th century, wind power is unable to compete with cheap fossil fuels and nuclear energy that are used to develop electricity grids Then, we have to wait until the 1970’s to witness significant development in the field of wind power. Heavily affected by the oil crisis of 1973, countries like the United States, Canada, Germany, Sweden, England and Denmark decided to invest in the development of powerful wind turbines. Sadly, many of the programs put in place did not produce anything concrete because of technical difficulties and grid integration problems, making it impossible to have profitable wind turbines. Also, some projects were abandoned when the oil prices dropped again in the 1980’s. Nonetheless, in the 1980’s, the capacity of wind turbines went from 2.5kW to 300kW in only a few years, thanks to some countries that decided to pursue the development of wind power. This development triggered the reduction of the average cost of wind power as seen in the Figure 12.

66 Dodge, D., 2006. Illustrated History of Wind Power Development. 67 Saulnier, B. and Reid, R., 2009. L'éolien au coeur de l'incontournable révolution énergétique. 68 Blyth, J., 2005. Britain's first modern wind power pioneer. 69 Saulnier, B. and Reid, R., 2009. L'éolien au coeur de l'incontournable révolution énergétique.

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Figure 12: Evolution of average cost of wind power electricity from 1982 to 2002 and projection to 2020, source: Brown, L., 2006. Wind Energy Demand Booming.

The country with the most optimistic plan is Denmark, who wishes to produce 50% of its electricity with wind power in 2030. This target is controversial since it would make them dependant on imported electricity, because wind power is seen as too unstable to reach 50%. We will come back to that issue later in the paper. To support its project, the audacious Danish government put in place a program with several economic incentives that will put this country at the forefront of wind power energy in the World. We should also mention that in the United States, the state of California finances greatly renewable sources of energy. Danish companies, with reliable turbines, took over that market and these sales helped them to improve their technology. In 1991, Germany decided to launch a program very similar to the Danish one and, in 1995, it is the turn of Spain to do so. In the 1990’s, the market of wind power continues to grow because the wind turbines are now bigger, more reliable and more powerful. In the 21st Century, countries were also choosing wind power for other reasons like environmental concerns, because wind energy is sustainable, and the conscience that oil supplies will not last forever70. Moreover, offshore wind power became increasingly popular. Despite their high construction and maintenance costs, these wind turbines produce more electricity due to favourable wind conditions71. For example, in 2001, Denmark inaugurated an offshore wind farm of 20 wind turbines with the capacity of 2MW each. There is also still progress in the electricity production capacity: Germany achieved the making of a capable of producing 5MW of electricity in 200572. The market for wind power energy never stops growing and reached a total capacity of 239 GW in 2011 (Figure 13).

70 WindTurbine.me, 2008. The History of Wind Power. 71 Ocean Energy Council, 2012. Offshore Wind Energy. 72 Renewable Energy World, 2005. Germany Inaugurates 5 MW Wind Turbine Prototype.

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Since this capacity only represents 3% of the World’s demand of electricity, there are still plenty of opportunities to grow73.

350000

300000

250000

200000 Wind Electricity Net 150000 Generation (GWh) 100000

50000

0

Figure 13: World's Wind Energy Net Generation (GWh), source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2011. International Energy Statistics.

Finally, it is notable that the development of wind power was mostly related to the price of oil. For example, cheaper oil prices in the United States might explain why Europe seems to be more advanced in the field of wind power. Fortunately, the future looks bright for wind power; the market is growing and the technology is improving every year.

3.2 Wind Power in Québec

In Québec, the development of wind power has progressed slowly, mainly because the province has already low electricity prices and because electricity comes from a renewable energy source: hydroelectricity. It is only in the 1980’s that Hydro-Québec started to experiment in the field of wind power: the public company built a few vertical axis wind turbines in the Gaspé Peninsula. The government decided to end the project a few years later because the turbines were technically problematic and did not seem to be cost effective74. In fact, we will see that three-bladed horizontal axis turbines will be the global norm later on until today. The real awakening of wind power in Québec is related to the Kyoto protocol. In 1988, contracts of 360 MW are given by Hydro-Québec to

73 World Wind Energy Association, 2012. World Market recovers and sets a new record: 42 GW of new capacity in 2011, total at 239 GW. 74 Lefrancois, G., 2006. Le privé dans l’énergie éolienne.

25 private companies with the mandate to start the development of wind power with 5 wind farms in the Gaspé Peninsula, an area with high wind potential75. In 2003, after witnessing the development of wind power in Europe, the government of Québec decided to give contracts for new projects. From now on, wind power contracts will be awarded through a request for tender system. For this first call for tenders of 1 000 MW(to be functional between 2006 and 2012), the wind farms had to be built in the Gaspé Peninsula and the private companies had to spend 60% of their costs in Québec (30% in that region): to create jobs in the area because of its high level of unemployment76. A year later, an independent firm study stated that the potential for wind power in Québec is tremendous, about 100 GW77, however an estimated 4 000 MW more could be integrated to the current electric system of the province78. A second invitation of tenders is announced by the government in 2005; it is for 2 000 MW of wind power energy in any region of the province to be fully functional in 2015.

Figure 14: Wind Farms in Québec (green: functional, blue: in construction, white: projected), source: Hydro-Québec, 2012. Parcs éoliens et centrales visés par les contrats d'approvisionnement.

In 2008, the Government of Québec announced that an extra 500 MW of wind power will be allowed to community projects and native communities. These projects give communities the opportunity to manage their own project in order to fulfill their specific needs. In March 2012, the installed capacity of wind power in Québec was in total 1 057.2 MW. As we can see in the figure 14, there are many wind farms in construction and projected, therefore the estimated installed capacity for 2015 is approximately 4 000 MW79.

75 Bouchard, R. and Chaumel, J., 2007. L'éolien, pour qui souffle le vent? 76 TechnoCentre Éolien, 2008. Région Désignée. 77 Guilbeault, S., 2009. Alerte! : Le Québec à l’heure des changements climatiques. 78 Bouchard, R. and Chaumel, J., 2007. L'éolien, pour qui souffle le vent? 79 MRNF, 2012. Le potentiel éolien au Québec.

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3.3 Wind Power in Sweden

In the 1970’s, the oil crisis in the western World triggers Sweden to look for new sources of energy. In 1977, after initial research and wind prospecting, Saab-Scania put in place a trial project of 60 kW on the coast of Uppland. Unfortunately, it seemed that the wind conditions on that site were much less favourable to wind power than expected80. In the 1980’s, the nuclear tragedies of Harrisburg and Chernobyl as well as growing environmental concerns strengthen the idea that more money should be invested in the development of wind power81. In 1982, Vattenfall invested in a wind power project in Gotland, a large Swedish island in the Baltic Sea, and , an energy company, did the same in Skåne, the southernmost province of Sweden82. These regions were chosen simply because since they are along the coasts, they inherit of powerful wind. However, once again, these experiments did not prove that wind power could generate efficient electricity production83. The real expansion of wind power in Sweden started in the 1990’s and more importantly in the year 2000’s. It is often said that Sweden was lagging behind several other countries in terms of development, partly because of a lack of interest from politicians and interminable environmental trials84. Fortunately, compared to most of the European countries, Sweden has a great wind power potential, due to the large size of the country with a low density of population and good wind resources, especially on the coasts. In 2003, the Swedish government put in place a program of tradable green certificate. This system gives economic incentives to producers of renewable energy sources that get money each time they produce megawatt hours85. Also, higher electricity prices, technical improvements on wind turbines and the climate change debate made wind power even more attractive in Sweden86. Therefore, all these incentives lead to a steady increase in installed capacity between 2003 and 2008: from 304 to 1 021 MW. After 2008, multiple significant projects more than tripled the energy production from wind power in Sweden and lead to an installed capacity of 2 970 MW in 201187. We should mention that despite still being behind countries like Germany, Spain and Denmark in Europe, Sweden seems to be a leader in the field of offshore wind farms. In fact, when it was commissioned by Vattenfall in 2007, the Lillgrund project was the world’s third largest wind farm. It consists of 48 turbines with a total capacity of 110 MW which are located 10 km from the shore in the Skåne region88. Finally, Sweden is looking forward to fulfill its EU engagement to supply 49% of its energy consumption from renewable energy sources by 202089. To reach this goal, the Swedish Wind Energy

80 Billigare El, 2012. Vindkraft. 81 Karlsson, P., 2009. Vindkraftens historia. 82 E.on, 2012. Vindkraftens historia. 83 Billigare El, 2012. Vindkraft. 84 Karlsson, P., 2009. Vindkraften i världen. 85 Global Wind Energy Council, 2009. SWEDEN. 86 Karlsson, P., 2009. Vindkraften i världen. 87 Global Wind Energy Council, 2012. Global Wind Report 2011 - Annual market update. 88 Vattenfall, 2012. Lillgrund. 89 Global Wind Energy Council, 2009. SWEDEN.

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Association plans to take Spain as an example and increase the wind energy production from 6 TWh to 30 TWh in 202090. This would mean that electricity production from wind power in Sweden would change from 2.5% of all electricity produced today to 7% in 202091. One of the ways to attain this goal is the tremendous Markbygden wind farm project, which built in an area of 450 km2 in northern Sweden, would totalise 1 101 wind turbines and an installed capacity up to 4 GW92. This ambitious project, completed by 2020, would be the largest wind farm in Europe9394. Nowadays, most of the major wind power projects in Sweden are built in the North of the country even though there is a bottleneck problem in the electric transmission grids and a shortage of generation capacity in the South95. Moreover, it would be very costly for Sweden to modify its power grids from the North to the South of the country where the energy is much needed. Since the North is very scarcely populated it seems to be easier for developers to build their wind farms there. Therefore, it appears that we can witness a type of Not In My Backyard (NIMBY) syndrome in Sweden (Figure 15).

Figure 15: Wind Farms in Sweden (blue: functional, red: in construction), Source: Svensk Vindenergi, 2011. Vindkrafstatistik.

90 Svensk Vindenergi, 2012. Så når Vi 30 TWh Vindkraft till år 2020. 91 Tyrberg, L., 2011. Wind Energy in Sweden. 92 New Energy Finance, 2008. Svevind and Team up for 4GW Wind Plan. 93 International Society of Automation, 2009. Sweden looks to build world's largest wind farm. 94 Ministry of the Environment, 2010. Go-head for 1101 wind turbines to produce up to 12 TWh renewable electricity in Markbygden in Piteå. 95 Sveca, J. and Söder, L., 2003. Wind Power Integration in Power Systems with Bottleneck problems.

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3.4 Comparison between Québec and Sweden

The development of wind power in both Sweden and Québec seem to have started really slow but has progressed admirably in the last decade. Both Sweden and Québec have great wind power potential due to their low density of population and their numerous windy coastlines. Although Sweden appeared to be behind several other European countries, we can see that the Scandinavian country was always in front of Québec. Sweden started wind turbine experimentation in 1977 while Québec started experiments a couple of years later in the 1980’s. The Swedish government started to give serious wind farm contracts in the 1990’s comparatively to 2003 for Québec. Today, Sweden has approximately the double of the installed capacity in Québec. In fact, the Markbygden project in Sweden would totalise the same installed capacity of all wind power in Québec. One explanation of that recent rapid development of wind power in Sweden is the program of tradable green certificate instituted by the Swedish government in 2003. The Québec government should think about implementing a similar program to promote wind power. Also, as part of the European Union, Sweden has really ambitious targets for renewable energies in the present decade. In Québec, there is unfortunately no real sense of emergency to reduce consumption of energy from non-renewable sources. It seems that, the Québec government is satisfied that a great part of the electricity comes from hydro power. Nevertheless, it would be helpful for Québec to set ambitious targets to reduce fossil fuel use like Sweden has been doing.

3.5 Advantages and Disadvantages of Wind Power

Wind power is considered by many to be the source of energy of the future, there is no doubt that it possesses several advantages. First of all, wind power is a renewable source of energy that does not generate any emissions, at least after the construction. In opposition to oil or coal; wind power energy does not initiate air pollution, the wind would still blow if there were no wind farms and, for sure, we will not run out of wind someday. A Finnish study has shown that when replacing coal-fired power generation by wind power in the , the amount of CO2 emissions is reduced by an 96 average of 660g Co2/kWh and an average of 300g Co2/kWh when replacing natural gas . Moreover, in 2012, a Chinese study on the life cycle assessment of CO2 emissions from wind power plants concluded that wind power is currently the best renewable form of 97 energy to minimise CO2 emissions per kWh of electricity production . According to that study, wind power plants have an emission intensity of 5.0 to 8.2 g Co2/kWh during their whole lifetime and it is during the production phase that emissions are the most significant. However, according to a recent scientific paper, we must be critical of these

96 Holttinen, H. and Tuhkanen, S., 2004. The effect of wind power on CO2 abatement in the Nordic Countries. 97 Wang, Y. and Sun, T., 2012. Life cycle assessment of CO2 emissions from wind power plants: Methodology and case studies.

29 life cycle assessment studies98. In these studies, the numbers are often based on estimations that are not consistent from a study to another. Furthermore, the variety of methods used in different studies makes it impossible to compare them adequately or to draw reliable conclusions. Second of all, wind power does not disrupt the land. Meaning that, comparatively to hydropower, flooding and irreversible change of tremendous natural areas will not occur. Hence, the land on which the wind turbines are erected can still be used for agriculture. Also, a recent study from the Netherlands has shown that offshore wind farms do not seem to harm marine wildlife and that, in some cases, it even helps biodiversity99. In fact, wind farms even provide a new habitat that is calmer than busy coastal areas for different marine species. The only negative effect is that some species of birds tend to avoid wind farms, but this should be taken into account when building wind turbines in a certain area. Wind power has strong advantages, but it has also some burdens. The most important relates to the fact that the wind is not constant; the power delivered suffers from intermittency. When building a wind farm, there is an installed capacity usually given in MW, but it is the maximum power that could be generated in perfect wind conditions and not the real electricity produced, commonly given in kWh. The wind power farms operate rarely at 100% capacity: usually the of wind power is between 20 and 40%100. Also, it is not possible to “start” wind power energy during peak demand periods. Therefore, it can be really risky to rely mainly on wind power. Furthermore, it can be useful to have another source of energy to complement wind power. For example, in Spain, a simulation study has shown that a hydro-pump station could successfully cover the imbalances in wind power production101. The results of the simulation show that the complementarity of both energy sources can generate economic gains. However, it is not every country that has the privilege of having suitable conditions for hydro power. Another study from Québec has shown with real data that, a system using hydropower and wind power can minimize the risks of an all-hydro system with up to 30% of wind power102. In this system, the flexibility of hydroelectricity, using the reserve capacity of dams, will contribute more in periods of peak demand and complement the stochastic production of wind power. Therefore, the value of the diversification effect of wind power should be taken into account. Also, although wind power energy is not constant, it is possible for countries with a significant size or continents to smooth out the intermittency103. Indeed, if the wind does not blow in a region where a first wind farm is

98 Davidsson, S., Höök, M. and Wall, G., 2012. A review of life cycle assessments on wind energy systems. 99 Lindeboom, H. et al., 2011. Short-term ecological effects of an offshore wind farm in the Dutch coastal zone; a compilation. 100 Renewable Energy Research Laboratory, 2010. Wind Power: Capacity Factor, Intermittency, and what happens when the wind doesn't blow? 101 Duque, A. et al., 2011. Optimal operation of a pumped-storage hydro plant that compensates the imbalances of a wind power producer. 102 Denault, M., Dupuis, D. et Couture-Cardinal, S., 2009. Complementarity of hydro and wind power: Improving the risk profile of energy inflows. 103 Roques, F., Hiroux, C. et Saguan, M., 2010. Optimal wind power deployment in Europe—A portfolio approach.

30 installed, a second wind farm connected on the same grid installed in another region where the wind is blowing could reduce that inconsistency. Hence, the problem with wind power is not exactly the intermittency, but being able to predict and manage that intermittency104. Finally, we must say that it is not possible for an energy system to function solely with wind power; there always need to be a form of energy serving as a backup, and unfortunately that backup energy is often gas turbines105. Some people also argue that current wind farms do not produce enough energy compared to hydro, coal or nuclear plants, and that we would need an unlimited amount of wind turbines to sustain our energy needs. It is true that if we want to keep todays level of energy consumption, it is not possible to rely only on wind power. The huge wind farm project of Markbygden in Sweden is expected to generate the same amount of electricity as two nuclear reactors106. Indeed, there are few countries that could have 500 km2 available for that kind of project. However, technology is improving rapidly in the world of wind power energy, thus regular size wind farms will be much more effective in the future and within the reach of many countries. A third disadvantage would be that it is very costly to produce wind energy. In fact, if we compare it with other forms of energy like coal and natural gas; we come to the conclusion that wind power is 33-34% more expensive107 (Figure 16). This is the reason why wind power needs significant economic incentives to develop. However, with increasing fossil fuel prices in the next decades, the gap with wind energy might narrow down. Also, we must mention that wind power projects affect negatively the property value of the surroundings. Indeed, this problem can be seen as one of the most important cause of NIMBY syndrome. One of the solutions to this problem is firms paying a fee to inhabitants living near the wind farm like it is the case in some countries108. The costs of wind power will be explained in more details in a section of the next chapter on wind economics.

104 Sovacool, B., 2009. The intermittency of wind, solar, and renewable electricity generators: Technical barrier or rhetorical excuse? 105 Anderson, D. and Leach, M., 2004. Harvesting and redistributing renewable energy: on the role of gas and electricity grids to overcome intermittency through the generation and storage of hydrogen. 106 Deal, R., 2010. Sweden to house Europes largest wind farm. 107 European Wind Energy Association, 2009. The economics of wind energy. 108 Martin, S., 2009. Wind farms and Nimbys: generating conflict, reducing litigation.

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Figure 16: Costs of generated power comparing conventional plants to wind power in 2010 (constant euro from 2006), source: European Wind Energy Association, 2009. The economics of wind energy.

A fourth disadvantage of wind power energy would be the disturbance of the landscape caused by wind turbines. In fact, many people think that the nature in the countryside should stay untouched and that wind turbines are unpleasant to look at. For example, many people are protesting against the expansion of . According to a recent study, negative landscape externalities could jeopardise the plan of the German government to have 30% of the electricity produced by wind power until 2020109. We can notice the same in Sweden where a survey sent to 1 000 Swedish households has shown that the potential of markets for green forms of electricity might be limited by resistance from a part of the population110. The study also shows that the Not- In-My-Backyard (NIMBY) hypothesis does not concur with the results. However, as said previously in this report, it seems that Sweden now prioritises the scarcely populated North when building wind farms. Hence, it is legitimate to think that the NIMBY syndrome is the main reason for choosing the North when the South needs the energy. Finally, in a paper on society and wind power, Swedish geographer Karin Hammarlund argues that the solution to this opposition is to include more public participation in the development process of wind power projects111. A fifth disadvantage of wind farms would be the noise generated by the wind turbines that can sound aggressive and disturbing by people living in the surroundings. A recent study tried to evaluate the noise level of wind turbines using both acoustic measurements from a wind farm and a simulation. The results have shown that at a distance of 300m, the sound pressure level is almost 45dB112. This level of noise is considered low relatively to other types of power plants or industrial activity. However, we need to

109 Meyerhoff, J., Ohl, C. and Hartje, V., 2010. Landscape externalities from onshore wind power. 110 Ek, K., 2005. Public and private attitudes towards “green” electricity: the case of Swedish wind power. 111 Hammarlund, K., 2002. Society and wind power in Sweden. 112 Kaldellis, J., Garakis, K. and Kapsali, M., 2012. Noise impact assessment on the basis of onsite acoustic noise immission measurements for a representative wind farm.

32 remember that wind turbines are usually located in the nature, away from cities, thus they can inevitably disturb the tranquility of the countryside. Another burden often stated about wind power energy is that wind turbines can be a threat to bird and bat populations. In fact, two Spanish studies concluded that wind farms are harmful to bird populations. The first one show that population sizes and time to extinction of a globally endangered long-lived raptor would show important decreases when confronted with wind farms113. The second one show that year-round mortality of griffon vultures at wind turbines increased when the wind farm was located in a highly populated area114. However, in 2012, another study shows that avian mortality from wind farms is overrated and that it is much less or equally harmful than other types of energy. Indeed, the results show that wind power and nuclear power are responsible for 0.3 to 0.4 mortalities per GWh compared to 5.2 fatalities per GWh for fossil fuelled power stations115. Finally, it is important to consider the bird and bat patterns in a region where a wind farm is projected and the promoters should try to choose a final location where it would disturb the wildlife as little as possible.

113 Carrete, M. et al., 2009. Large scale risk-assessment of wind-farms on population viability of a globally endangered long-lived raptor. 114 Carette, M. et al., 2012. Mortality at wind-farms is positively related to large-scale distribution and aggregation in griffon vultures. 115 Sovacool, B., 2012. The avian benefits of wind energy: A 2009 update.

33

4. Government Regulations and Incentives to Wind Power

In this section, we will review in details the governmental strategy to develop wind power in Québec and Sweden. 4.1 Québec’s Strategy

In Québec, since 1978, there is an Office of Public Hearings on the environment (BAPE) in charge of consulting the public and advising the government on construction projects such as wind farms. For each project, the BAPE arranges a public information period of a minimum of 45 days. During that period, the agency organises meetings to make sure that the citizen’s voice is heard. After this period, a report is given to the Ministry of environment which has 60 days to make it available to the public. Then, the Ministry has the power of accepting the project or not. To date, every recommendations of the BAPE were ratified by the government116. Even if this appears to be a legitimate process, there are still some critics that argue that it should be revised. One of them is that the public is still kept away from the participation to the project. Indeed, the public can criticise and comment on the project, but it does not have as much power as the developer. As said in the previous chapter, studies have shown that public participation is the best solution to the opposition of citizens to wind farm projects117. In the last years, there have been complaints from different groups about the unclear regulations of the government and its improvised management on different issues related to wind power projects. First, the government should impose a minimal distance between a wind turbine and a dwelling, even if most regions of Québec have agreed on 500 meters118. Secondly, the process of negotiation of land rights between developers and land owners is unclear and can lead to misunderstandings. Thirdly, there is no solid guaranty in the provincial regulations that the promoter will clean the site after the exploitation of the wind farm. Fourthly, the absence of clear regulations concerning royalties given to landowners and municipalities by the developers; the amounts could differ considerably from a project to another. For example, the Government would like to give 1% of the developer’s revenue to the landowners but the Union of farmers (UPA) would prefer royalties that vary on the wind quality of different sites, similar to the norm in Denmark119. Finally, it seems that the government leaves a lot of latitude to the developers of wind power projects and that it is really slow to amend the law. For example, it is only since 2007 that the government has added criteria to ensure that developers take into account the landscape, the fauna and the public safety120. In 2003, the Québec government decided to use the call for tender method to give wind farm contracts. Some people are critical of that approach and argue that it might not be the best way to develop wind power in Québec. According to these critics, a call for

116 Bureau d'Audiences Publiques sur l'Environnement, 2012. Le BAPE. 117 Hammarlund, K., 2002. Society and wind power in Sweden. 118 Francoeur, L., 2012. Des éoliennes américaines aux portes de Stanstead. 119 Union des Producteurs Agricoles, 2006. Développement éolien : pas d’entente sur les redevances entre Hydro-Québec et l’UPA. 120 Couture, P., 2007. Québec encadre le développement éolien.

34 tender gives the contract to the company with the lowest bid, but this does not mean that the development plan of this company will benefit the most Québec and its inhabitants. In fact, to save money, the projects are often planned near road networks which are usually close to dwellings. Therefore, these wind farm projects are harmful to the landscape and consequently the living quality and tourism in these regions. Also, with a call for tender system, it is nearly impossible for community and locally-initiated projects to win bids against multinational companies121. For these reasons, different groups in Québec would like to see the nationalisation of Québec’s wind power. For them, the nationalisation would mean that Québec could develop that form of energy in the interest of all the inhabitants of the province. It would also mean that the money invested in that sector would stay in Québec since the profits would go to Hydro-Québec and not mostly in the hands of foreign companies. The Québec government is against that proposal arguing that Hydro-Québec does not have any expertise in wind power and that a call for tender system guarantees us of getting the best price for our wind energy. However, it is true that most wind power companies operating or biding in Québec have little expertise in wind power and that they subcontract both the construction and the maintenance of wind farms to other companies122. Moreover, Hydro-Québec is the only buyer of electricity produced by wind power in the province. Like many countries, the government of Québec uses the concept of feed-in tariffs for wind power energy. This economic policy offers long-term contracts to renewable energy developers leading to technological cost reductions in order to help promote renewable forms of energy123. For example, the first call for tender in 2003 led to a 20 year long contracts with two different wind power companies. In 2007, the price paid by Hydro- Québec was 6.5 cents/kWh of wind power electricity with an increase of 2% per year. Therefore, if we take the totality of the contract, Hydro-Québec will pay an average of 8.35 cents/kWh to developers. If we overlook the environmental benefits, this price is expensive since Hydro-Québec produced hydro-electricity at a cost of 1.9 cents/kWh in 2005124 and at 2.11 cents/kWh in 2011125. Also, some economists do not see the point of developing wind power in Québec. They argue that it is not economically profitable and that the government of Québec should instead invest in new transmission lines connecting to the North American electric grid. In fact, Québec could economically benefit from buying electricity from its neighbours when the prices are low counting on the storage attribute of hydro power126.

121 Bouchard, R. and Chaumel, J., 2007. L'éolien, pour qui souffle le vent? 122 Bouchard, R. and Chaumel, J., 2007. L'éolien, pour qui souffle le vent? 123 Gipe, P., 2003. Electricity Feed Laws, Feed-in Laws, Feed-in Tariffs, Advanced Renewable Tariffs, and Renewable Energy Payments. 124 Ste-Marie, G., 2005. Le Développement de la filière éolienne au Québec et ses coûts. 125 Hydro-Québec, 2012. Annual Report 2011. 126 Bélanger, G. and Bernard, J., 2006. Oublions l'éolien.

35

4.2 Sweden’s Strategy

Since Sweden is part of the European Union, the country is submitted to its directives that can be used as guidelines for national policies. As said earlier, one of the objectives of the EU is that all member countries have a proportion of 20% of renewable energy by 2020. Also, other goals of the EU are 10 % of renewable energy in the transport sector, 20% more efficient energy use and 40 % reductions in greenhouse gas emissions127. In addition, Sweden wants to become a carbon neutral country by 2050. Therefore, all these goals indirectly trigger Sweden to increase its production of wind power. Furthermore, since 2003, Sweden has a system of green certificates with the goal of increasing wind power and making the production more cost efficient. This system of quota obligation with tradable green certificates is applied in opposition to feed-in tariffs used in most of European countries128. The tradable green certificates system is proven to be efficient in terms of spreading wind power and in terms of minimising social costs. However, this system may not keep the consumers price down and may not trigger technological change129. So far, this incentive really worked well for Sweden (Figure 17).

Figure 17: Development of wind power in Sweden and forecast for 2010-2012, Source: Tyrberg, L., 2011. Wind Energy in Sweden.

In the 1970’s and 1980’s, the Swedish government, through a program of Research and Development, mainly funded research on large-scale wind turbines and unconventional turbine technologies. As we know today, investing in these types of wind turbines did not happen to be a good decision at the time. In the 1990’s, investment subsidies to wind power were put in place by the government. Many small cooperatives and enterprises were now able to apply for investment grants, which led to a significant increase in

127 European Renewable Energy Council., 2010. Rethinking 2050: A 100% Renewable Energy Vision for the European Union. 128 Luga, D., 2009. Wind Energy, The Facts - Integrating wind power in Sweden. 129 Bergek, A. and Jacobsson, S., 2010. Are tradable green certificates a cost-efficient policy driving technical change or a rent-generating machine? Lessons from Sweden 2003–2008.

36 installed capacity. However, even in Sweden, it was easier for Danish developers to get their turbines certified and to get funding compared to Swedish developers130. Also, it is often said that the heavy set of rules and long handling permits for wind power installation have greatly inhibited market development during these years131. Furthermore, before 2000, the Swedish government had invested 216 million of euros in wind power development compared to 906, 427 and 209 by the Danish, German and Spanish governments132. Also, in 1999, Sweden opened its local market to foreign competition which led to an important decrease in prices: about 45%. Until 2009, these prices have been increased with a temporary “environmental bonus” which is coming from the government taxing electricity consumption (it is indexed to inflation)133. In Sweden, the Energy Agency is in charge of planning wind power projects. The agency’s decisions of areas where to develop wind power are based on reports from the different regional councils. Hence, it is these regional councils that are accountable for identifying the best areas for wind turbines even though the central government provided the funding for this process between 2007 and 2011134. For example, large areas can be excluded of wind power development plans only because wind turbines could affect the original landscape picture. Also, when a main development framework is formulated by the Swedish Energy Agency, it is broken down into regional planning frameworks. It has been recorded that there are about 200 local authorities actively planning areas for potential wind power projects. The government named in 2006 wind power coordinators for four different areas of Sweden. Their role is to help the development of wind power by encouraging and supporting interaction between developers, planners, local authorities and the government. In 2011, a Sea and Water Authority was created to manage offshore wind farms projects135. In Sweden, there are no official standard for the minimal distance between a wind farm and a dwelling. Every project is managed on a case by case basis, but 500 meters is usually the norm although a distance of 350 meters has been accepted in the past136. Moreover, there is a limit of 40 dB (A) for the noise level of the closest residential building and a maximum of 8 hours yearly of shadow from a turbine on a dwelling137. Also, it is important to note that 10% of the installed wind power capacity is community-owned. In fact, when the wind farms are owned by cooperatives, the

130 Åstrand, K. and Neij, L., 2006. An assessment of governmental wind power programmes in Sweden— using a systems approach. 131 Bergek, A., 2010. Levelling the playing field? The influence of national wind power planning instruments on conflicts of interests in a Swedish county. 132 Åstrand, K. and Neij, L., 2006. An assessment of governmental wind power programmes in Sweden— using a systems approach. 133 Bolinger, M., 2001. Community wind power ownership schemes in Europe and their relevance to the United States. 134 NordVind, 2011. Wind Power in the Nordic Region - Conditions for the expansion of wind power in the Nordic Countries. 135 NordVind, 2011. Wind Power in the Nordic Region - Conditions for the expansion of wind power in the Nordic Countries. 136 National Wind Watch, 2009. European Setbacks (minimum distance between wind turbines and habitations). 137 Tyrberg, L., 2011. Wind Energy in Sweden.

37 electricity prices are very low thanks to subsidies from the government and reduced sales tax138. In order to study the environmental effects of wind power, the government mandated the Swedish Energy Agency and the Swedish EPA to conduct a joint program. The program named Vindval manages more than 30 research projects on social and environmental consequences of wind power projects139. As part of the environmental approval process, a formal environmental impact assessment (EIA) is required for every wind power project. In this case, the EIA is not only about describing the project in a clear and technical way, but also about portraying the measures taken to lower the environmental impact as much as possible140. One of the most important parts of the EIA process is the mandatory information and consultations given to the public. Before 2009, wind farm developers had to acquire a double set of permits to get the final approval for their projects: construction approval and environment approval. This method revealed to be very resource intensive and time consuming. Thus, since 2009, it is possible for developers to have a single approval for both construction and environmental testing. The same year, the Swedish Energy Agency and the business sector launched a research programme to study the technical aspects of wind power: Wind Research Stage 3. Among other things, this program focuses on the special features of wind power in a Nordic climate and it is supposed to end in 2012141. There are many critics of the Swedish wind power development system and the regulations introduced by the government. The most important one is that the planning process is very time-consuming and complex. In fact, numerous actors of different government levels are involved in the process that can become confusing for the public for instance142. Also, there are so many planning regulations that it creates uncertainties and sometimes gives too much power to the local authorities143. In fact, it is hard for Sweden to attain its goals of wind power expansion since the objectives are set by the government while the decisions are taken by local authorities. Finally, some argue that the Environmental Impact Assessment gives strong legal rights to the opposing people that slow down the process considerably144.

138 Commission for Environmental Cooperation, 2010. Guide to developing a community renewable energy project in North America. 139 Naturvårdsverket, 2012. Vindval. Många verksamheter påverkar miljön. Regler och styrmedel skyddar den. 140 Tyrberg, L., 2011. Wind Energy in Sweden. 141 NordVind, 2011. Wind Power in the Nordic Region - Conditions for the expansion of wind power in the Nordic Countries. 142 Bergek, A., 2010. Levelling the playing field? The influence of national wind power planning instruments on conflicts of interests in a Swedish county. 143 Pettersson, M. et al., 2010. Wind power planning and permitting: Comparative perspectives from the Nordic countries. 144 Söderholm, P., Ek, K. and Pettersson, M., 2007. Wind power development in Sweden: Global policies and local obstacles.

38

4.3 Comparison between Québec and Sweden

When looking to stimulate wind power on their respective territories, it seems that Sweden and Québec have very different barriers to the development of that energy. In Québec, the governmental policy is criticised because it gives too much latitude to private companies. It is almost the opposite in Sweden, where the government is charged to have introduced too many restrictions and environmental policies that hinder the development of wind power. For example, the BAPE in Québec is accused of not giving real power to the public in the environmental approval process while the Swedish EIA is seen as giving too much power to the opponents of wind power projects. Also, the Québec government is blamed for using the centralised method of call for tender for wind power projects and leaving little decision power to local authorities. Policies like call for tenders that rely mostly on market competition for the lowest bid are known to reduce costs but, on the other hand, they hinder the development of wind power145. In Sweden, the government leaves a lot of decisional power to local authorities but sometimes it is hard for both actors to be on the same page because the procedure is too decentralised. As for the feed- in tariffs and tradable green certificates, there are more successful examples of the former system even though the latter seem to develop wind power as well. We will come back to this subject in a further sub-chapter about wind economics. Québec could learn from Sweden by giving more power to local authorities without giving them free hand. Local involvement and education on wind power can help to increase public awareness and acceptance of wind farms. Also, the Québec public should have more power in the environmental procedures, mainly in the form of public participation. Indeed, we learned that several studies show that public participation is the key to public acceptance. Even though we shall not wish to completely copy the Swedish model, who also experienced many problems, there is certainly a way to give more power to local authorities and the public without paralysing the development of wind power with long lead-times and interminable lists of permissions. To conclude, there is no doubt that Québec could learn from Sweden and learn from Sweden’s mistakes in regulations and incentives related to wind power. First, it could surely stimulate its wind power development while improving its regulations in that field. Second, a more decentralised system could mean that Québec people can have more control on wind power without having to nationalise it completely.

4.4 Other Examples in the World

After having discussed and analysed the wind power development strategies of Québec and Sweden, we can now look at what is done in other countries that have successful strategies. Denmark and Germany were chosen because some facets of their strategies could very well be adopted by Québec and Sweden.

145 Ibenholt, K., 2002. Explaining learning curves for wind power.

39

4.4.1 Denmark

In the last decades, Denmark has always been seen as a leader in the world of wind power. In fact, more than 20% of the electricity produced in Denmark comes from wind power which is the highest percentage in the world. Also, this country is the birthplace of community based wind farms powered by governmental incentives146. In 2006, the Danish government announced a plan to have 50% of the electricity produced by wind power by 2025147. The country also plans to supply 35% of its energy needs from renewables by 2020 and 100% by 2050148 which is projected to be feasible according to a scientific study149. We should have a closer look at the success story of and the reasons why that small country can have such ambitious targets for the future. Denmark has been severely affected by the oil crisis in 1973. At that time, 90% of the Scandinavian country’s energy came from fossil fuels150. In the 1980’s, most of the electricity production in Denmark came from coal that caused high greenhouse gas emissions and severe acidification of lakes and forests151. For these reasons, the Danes took the decision to rely on renewable sources of energy, mainly wind power because the country has better wind conditions than most European countries152. This would also allow them to be more energy independent from the neighbouring countries. Since 1979, the Danish government introduced a vast program of subsidies and loans to stimulate the development of wind power. For example, the government would cover 30% of the investment costs. Also, the Danish on energy were transferred to research centers on wind power. In the 1990’s, the government introduced feed-in tariffs with 10 year- long contracts153. That policy led to a confortable stability triggering a fast expansion of wind power in Denmark. Indeed, according to a study, stable market conditions has a great impact on the capacity installed even though costs decrease less in that type of market154. Also, tax exemptions were offered to communities generating their own win power energy which led to cooperatives owning 75% of wind farms in 2004155. In Denmark, the planning of wind power projects is vertically integrated156. Compared to Sweden, the Danish government put in place a single authority replacing the different ministries related to wind power and the national grid operator which is part of The Danish Energy Authority157. This policy makes the planning more efficient and prevents

146 World Wind Energy Association, 2010. World Wind Energy Report 2009. 147 Renewable Energy World, 2006. Denmark to Increase Wind Power to 50% by 2025, Mostly Offshore. 148 Guardian Environmental Network, 2012. Denmark aims to get 50% of all electricity from wind power. 149 Lund, H. and Mathiesen, B., 2009. Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050. 150 Walsh, B., 2009. Denmark's Wind of Change. 151 Renewable Energy World, 2006. Denmark to Increase Wind Power to 50% by 2025, Mostly Offshore. 152 Danish Energy Agency, 2009. Wind Turbines in Denmark. 153 Walsh, B., 2009. Denmark's Wind of Change. 154 Ibenholt, K., 2002. Explaining learning curves for wind power. 155 GlObserver, 2011. Wind power in Denmark. 156 Pettersson, M. et al., 2010. Wind power planning and permitting: Comparative perspectives from the Nordic countries. 157 D'Armagnac, B., 2010. Danish wind farms show sustainable attitude to renewable energy.

40 the confusion between the different actors. The Danish community takes also an active part in the process of wind power planning. In fact, to increase public acceptance, people living near a wind farm can have the loss of value of the property compensated. Also, wind power developers of turbines of at least 25 metres need to sell at least 20% of the project to the local population living at a maximum distance of 4.5 km158. In the case of offshore wind farms, there are cases where local fisherman would get a compensation for the location of a wind project in their area. All these policies help greatly to increase public acceptance of projects and explain why 86% of Danes support wind power159. Today, approximately 50% of the wind turbines used around the world is produced by Danish manufacturers and they represent more than 10% of the country’s exports160. is the World leader of wind turbine manufacturing. The Danish company owned 12.9 % of the wind turbine market in 2011161. In 2007, an American study has shown that there is a clear link between the success of a manufacturer in its home country and its potential success in the world’s wind power market162. Accordingly, that success in the global world provides certain stability in the Danish market. Lately, Denmark has even started a vast program to modernise its oldest wind farms with generous government subsidies163. Of course, there are some critics about the Danish wind power development strategy. First, Denmark has experienced winter periods when it needed to pay neighbouring countries to buy its electricity. We have seen previously that since wind power is intermittent, a high percentage of it in a national electricity strategy can be risky. However, the Danish government plans to reinforce the grids connecting to its neighbours. For example, Sweden and Norway use the wind power from Denmark to pump water upstream in their reservoirs and use hydro power when needed164. Second, because the development of wind power is stimulated by a high level of subsidies, Danes pay their electricity to a much higher price than other European countries165. However, even though the Danish wind power system is not perfect we must agree that Denmark is a leader in that field. Furthermore, other countries could benefit and learn from the Danish experience.

4.4.2 Germany

Like Denmark, Germany is often seen as a leader in the field of wind power energy. In fact, Germany was leading the world in installed capacity in the year 2000’s before being

158 Danish Energy Agency, 2009. Wind Turbines in Denmark. 159 GlObserver, 2011. Wind power in Denmark. 160 D'Armagnac, B., 2010. Danish wind farms show sustainable attitude to renewable energy. 161 Backwell, B., 2012. BTM says Vestas loses market share but stays in top spot. 162 Lewis, J. and Wiser, R., 2007. Fostering a renewable energy technology industry: An international comparison of wind industry policy support mechanisms. 163 D'Armagnac, B., 2010. Danish wind farms show sustainable attitude to renewable energy. 164 Kanter, J., 2012. Obstacles to Danish Wind Power. The New York Times. 165 Ibenholt, K., 2002. Explaining learning curves for wind power.

41 overtaken by the United States and China at the end of that decade166. Still, Germany is leading in Europe with a capacity of 27,214 MW in 2010 which accounted for more than 6% of the country’s power consumption167. In the 1980’s, a generous research and development policy helped Germany to conduct a large number of experiments focusing on many different types of turbines. There was a ceiling of programs and funding per firms; meaning that small firms could also benefit from that program. In these years, the government decided to develop wind power for three reasons: environmental reasons, but also the success of Denmark in that field and the strong green movement in Germany during these years168. Since 1991, Germany uses a feed-in tariffs system to promote wind power which is updated regularly to adapt to the changing market169. For example, at the beginning of the program, grid operators had to pay owners of turbines 90% of the average consumer electricity price170. The payments are fixed for a period varying from 5 to 20 years depending on the yield of the site; the income from a wind turbine is then high and predictable. To make sure that wind farms are not erected on inefficient locations, the payments are only given to the developer if the wind turbines generate minimum 60% of a pre-stated performance level. However, a study has shown that this strategy including regional planning authorities, local stakeholders and the public can hinder the development of wind power. Indeed, it has been proven to create a mismatch between regional spatial planning and national feed-in tariffs policy171. Nevertheless, with the economic incentives, it remained profitable for farmers, individuals and companies to own wind turbines. Indeed, in 1997, around 50% of the functioning wind turbines in Germany were owned by farmers. Also, before 2000, 57% of the wind projects were attributed to German companies resulting from policies to promote local industries172. Between 2000 and 2010, wind power in Germany grew tremendously: the installed capacity went from approximately 6,000 MW to more than 27,000 MW173. This success can be explained by several factors: the R&D investments in different variety of wind turbines in the beginning, the public acceptance, the economic incentives policies and the promotion of local industries174. In the last years, a decision by the German government to postpone the phase-out of nuclear power might hinder the expansion of wind power. In fact, this could mean that wind power energy would need to compete with nuclear energy

166 World Wind Energy Association, 2010. World Wind Energy Report 2009. 167 Global Wind Energy Council, 2012. Germany. 168 Johnson, A. and Jacobsson, S., 2000. The Emergence of a growth industry: a comparative analysis of the German, Dutch and Swedish wind turbine industries. 169 Global Wind Energy Council, 2012. Germany. 170 Johnson, A. and Jacobsson, S., 2000. The Emergence of a growth industry: a comparative analysis of the German, Dutch and Swedish wind turbine industries. 171 Ohl, C. and Eichhorn, M., 2010. The mismatch between regional spatial planning for wind power development in Germany and national eligibility criteria for feed-in tariffs—A case study in West Saxony. 172 Johnson, A. and Jacobsson, S., 2000. The Emergence of a growth industry: a comparative analysis of the German, Dutch and Swedish wind turbine industries. 173 World Wind Energy Association, 2010. World Wind Energy Report 2009. 174 Johnson, A. and Jacobsson, S., 2000. The Emergence of a growth industry: a comparative analysis of the German, Dutch and Swedish wind turbine industries.

42 on the German electric grids175. However, we do know that these two forms of energy are in different categories: nuclear is a base load energy form while wind power is an intermittent form of energy, thus they do not really compete in practice, but they can complement each other. However, in 2010, the German government established more ambitious goals for wind power. For example, investments of 75 billion euros for the installation of a 25 GW capacity in offshore wind farms by 2030176. In the future, Germany plans to expand wind power mainly on offshore sites, but this objective comes with significant problems that slow-down the development considerably. For example, since the German government requires the wind turbines to be built 30 km from the shores, it challenged the logistics of the construction. Even if it has been chosen for environmental reasons, this regulation does not exist elsewhere177. In Denmark, offshore wind farms can easily be seen from the coast. As the electric grids are close to the shores, they are powerful enough to transmit the supply of wind farms to inland territories. Nonetheless, it is also known that Germany could triple its onshore wind turbines counting on the Southern part of the country where wind farms are scarce even though wind quality is lower than in the Northern part178.

4.5 Wind economics

Like other renewable energies, the economics of wind power are complex. However, it is important for countries developing wind power to understand wind economics in order to formulate effective policies. Even though the costs of wind energy have dropped significantly in the last years, conventional sources of energy usually remain cheaper179. This gives a bigger challenge for authorities to make wind power energy attractive for private and public actors of the society. In 2002, a study compared wind power development learning curves in Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom. The study revealed that tradable green certificates, a strategy used in the UK and Sweden, would be less costly by stimulating competition and using competitive market forces even though it might hinder the spread of wind power. On the other hand, feed-in tariffs, used in Denmark and Germany would stimulate greatly the diffusion of wind power because they provide stable conditions, but the costs would not be significantly reduced180. Another study, in 2007, stated that the feed-in tariffs in Germany provided both lower costs and better diffusion of wind power compared to the British market system. In the UK, the tradable green certificate (TGC) system provided lower costs for electricity production, but the unstable market, compared to fixed prices, increased the capital cost181. In 2009, a Swedish study also came to the conclusion that

175 Global Wind Energy Council, 2012. Germany. 176 Schultz, S., 2010. Merkel's Masterplan for a German Energy Revolution. 177 Schultz, S., 2011. Will Nuke Phase-Out Make Offshore Farms Attractive? 178 Dohmen, F., 2011. Why Germany's Offshore Wind Parks Have Stalled. 179 Valentine, S., 2011. Understanding the variability of wind power costs. 180 Ibenholt, K., 2002. Explaining learning curves for wind power. 181 Butler, L. and Neuhoff, K., 2008. Comparison of feed-in tariff, quota and auction mechanisms to support wind power development.

43 tradable green certificates were only the best option in particular cases. TGC is a good system to have low social costs on a short term basis. However, it does not guarantee low consumer costs for energy and efficient technical change182. Therefore, having a uniform incentive system for all types of renewable energies does not seem to help wind power development. Also, it seems that developers in the UK and Sweden are having the same major obstacle to development; being the permissions to plan and build by different authorities. However, it is hard to relate these problems to the system used. Over the last years, technological development in turbine functioning, lightness of materials and wind capturing techniques has contributed to lower the costs of wind turbines. On the other hand, the growing prices of oil and steel, largely used to build turbines, have increased the costs of wind power. Of course there are also economies of scale: each time the global wind power capacity doubled, the costs declined by 20%183. The capital cost of building a wind farm account for 80% of the total lifetime cost of the project. These costs include the wind turbines, the wind turbine foundations, the necessary road constructions and grid connection. Furthermore, the variable costs including the operation and maintenance costs, the land rental, insurances, taxes and administrative costs represent the 20% remaining184.Wind quality is probably the most important factor to lower the cost of wind farms over time. This is why research has shown that in a feed-in tariffs system, site selection is the most significant barrier. Indeed, the companies do not fight to have a better price but to get the best sites185. Moreover, the site is judged on its capacity factor meaning the percentage of time that a wind farm generates energy during an average year186. In terms of cost reduction, offshore wind farms are seen as a better option for the future. Even though building offshore wind farms is more expensive, offshore are of better quality. Nowadays, it is developing faster than onshore wind power since the former has not been developed for as long as the latter. Therefore, one day offshore wind power should become more profitable because with decreasing building costs, wind quality will be of even greater importance. However, we must be careful that the demand for offshore wind farm components does not grow too quickly like it has been the case lately, because the scarcity of material in the supply increase costs. Hence, a stable and sustainable growth rate might be preferable to keep costs low187. Moreover, offshore wind farms also have the advantage of not competing with several other land uses like onshore wind farms do188.

182 Bergek, A. and Jacobsson, S., 2010. Are tradable green certificates a cost-efficient policy driving technical change or a rent-generating machine? 183 Ackermann, T. and Söder, L., 2002. An overview of wind energy-status 2002. 184 Blanco, M., 2009. The economics of wind energy. 185 Butler, L. and Neuhoff, K., 2008. Comparison of feed-in tariff, quota and auction mechanisms to support wind power development. 186 Renewable Energy Research Laboratory, 2010. Wind Power: Capacity Factor, Intermittency, and what happens when the wind doesn't blow? 187 Heptonstall, P. et al., 2012. The cost of offshore wind: Understanding the past and projecting the future. 188 Valentine, S., 2011. Understanding the variability of wind power costs.

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4.6 Recommendations for Québec and Sweden

Québec can obviously learn from the Danish and German models of wind power development. Even Sweden could copy some aspects of the strategies used by these two other European countries. First, it is essential for governments to establish generous subsidies and loan programs to stimulate the development of wind energy. So far, a feed- in tariffs strategy seem to work a bit better than the tradable green certificates used in Sweden. Second, more power should be given to the public by promoting cooperative, farmer and individual ownership of wind farms. Accordingly, these politics will increase the involvement of the population and as a result public acceptance. Third, the Danish policy where nearby inhabitants are compensated by the developers for the value loss of their property also seems interesting to reduce the NIMBY syndrome. Fourth, it is important for government to stimulate R&D as well as local industries to promote wind energy. Finally, the governments need to keep in mind the most important factors for developers to keep the costs low when planning to build a wind farm. Firstly, the developers need to find a site where the wind capacity factor is excellent. This can be hard for some countries where all the best sites have already been developed. Secondly, they need to have a good handling of the capital costs which represent 80% of the costs of wind farm’s lifetime. Thirdly, developers need access to financing capital and stable economic incentives like feed-in tariffs.

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5. Conclusion

In this report, I performed an analysis of the wind power development strategies of Québec and Sweden. It is coherent to compare them because they have almost the same population and are similar in plenty of social, economic, political and geographical aspects. However, Sweden has developed wind power energy for a longer time than Québec. Hence, the question that I intended to answer was the following: can the province of Québec in Canada learn from Sweden in the field of wind power energy? Firstly, I compared the air pollution control, the climate change policies and the energy balance of both areas. Sweden is more advanced than Québec in policies reducing polluting emissions and fighting climate change. Both states have low greenhouse gas emissions compared to other developed countries, because most of their electricity is generated by hydroelectricity for Québec and by hydro as well as nuclear power for Sweden. Finally, Sweden has much more ambitious objectives for the future like being carbon neutral by 2050. Secondly, I examined the development of wind power energy in Québec, in Sweden and in the World. Despite the slow development in both Québec and Sweden, they have a tremendous potential for wind energy. Although Sweden appeared to be behind several other European countries, the Scandinavian country was always in front of Québec. In fact, today, Sweden has approximately the double of the installed capacity in Québec. This can be explained by the program of tradable green certificate instituted by the Swedish government in 2003 as well as the aggressive renewable energy targets. Thirdly, I discussed the government regulations and incentives to wind power. In Québec, the governmental policy is criticised because it gives too much power to private companies which raises concerns among the population. In fact, the government does not delegate enough to local authorities and barely includes the population in the process. It is the opposite in Sweden where the government is blamed to have introduced too many restrictions and environmental policies that hinder the development of wind power. For example, the Swedish Environmental Impact Assessment gives strong legal rights to the opposing people which slow down the process considerably. I also reviewed the wind power models of two World leaders: Denmark and Germany. They both developed wind power with generous governmental subsidies including feed-in tariffs systems and policies promoting public participation. Québec could improve many aspects of its wind energy strategy. First, without copying entirely the Swedish model, the province’s wind power system should be decentralised. By leaving more power to local authorities like Sweden does, it would more likely increase the public acceptance of wind power. Also, Québec could even think about vertically integrate its wind power development like Denmark. Indeed, if a single organisation related to regional and central authorities would be in charge of wind power, the province could be close to local authorities without creating confusion between different power levels. Moreover, Québec must remember to keep processes efficient, meaning to keep the permissions and regulations simple. Second, the population of Québec should have more power in the planning procedures of projects, mainly in the form of public participation like it is the case in Sweden. In fact, when the population

46 participates actively in the planning of wind power projects, it has considerable positive effects on public acceptance. Also, Québec could copy the Danish aspect of forcing firms to sell 20% of their projects to local people. This would also improve the number of wind farms owned by cooperatives or farmers in Québec. Third, Québec chose to use the feed-in tariffs strategy in opposition to the Swedish tradable green certificates. While both seem good to promote wind power development, the feed-in tariffs system used by Denmark and Germany has proven to be more successful. However, Québec could possibly think of improving and updating its system on a regular basis like the Danes and the Germans do. Fourth, to reduce the NIMBY syndrome in its population, Québec could think of doing like Sweden and building wind farms in the North, but this would require costly investments in transmission grids. Another solution to the NIMBY would be to do like the Germans and build huge offshore wind power farms. However, that seems to be a better option for Sweden than Québec. Indeed, Sweden has long coastlines close to big cities while Québec does not have a sea or big lakes near the most populated areas. The best alternative for the Québec government could then be to institute the Danish policy that forces developers to compensate inhabitants that see their property value decrease when a wind farm is built nearby. To conclude, we have seen that Québec could surely learn from Sweden in the field of wind power energy. Indeed, even if Sweden is not a World leader in wind energy, Québec could certainly benefit from some Swedish successful policies and try to avoid its mistakes. Furthermore, the Québec government should try to copy good aspects of the Danish, German and Swedish models in order to promote a successful development of wind energy in the future.

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6. Acknowledgement

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Mikael Höök Associate Professor in the Department of Earth Sciences. His deep knowledge of Energy systems and his logical thinking helped me to focus on the important issues. Also, his comments have been very valuable to me and made my work better than I could have imagined. I would like to thank Simon Larsson for the scientific articles on wind economics that he recommended. They happened to be very useful. I am also grateful to Andreas Olsson for helping me translate Swedish words. Finally, I would like to thank my dad, Jacques Rouillard, who found time to read my work and point out the parts that needed to be improved.

Uppsala, Sweden, May 2012 Justin Rouillard

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8. Appendix

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

Québec Sweden Transport 43,5% 31,3% Industrial 28% 25,6% Electricity 0,8% 16% Agriculture 7,9% 11,9% Residential and 14% 6,4% Commercial Waste 5,9% 2,8% Others - 6,0%

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