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PANORAMA OF GLOBAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT 2017-2018 THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE ABOUT STRATPOL STRATPOL – Strategic Policy Institute – is an independent think-tank based in Slovakia with focus on international relations and security policy. Its activities cover European security, Transatlantic relations and Eastern Partnership countries. Our research, publications, and events cover issues and developments in Central Europe, Ukraine, states of the South Cauca- sus, as well as NATO, the United States and key strategic regions. Our ex- perts have a proven record in strategic decision-making in their respective governments, military, as well as the world of academia. STRATPOL contributes to academic debate, shapes public opinion through the media and influences policies by formulating recommendations for foreign and security policy decision-makers. STRATPOL has expanded on the professional basis of the Centre for Eu- ropean and North Atlantic Affairs, securing the continuity of the Centre’s projects and partnerships. Among our achievements are the Panorama of global security environment, a reputable peer-reviewed and indexed publication on international relations; yearly South Caucasus Security Forum, a high-level forum for exchanges of views on security developments in the neighborhood, held in Tbilisi, Georgia, and long-term projects on se- curity sector reform and capacity building in Ukraine and Georgia, among others. STRATPOL Štúrova 3, 81102 Bratislava, Slovakia www.stratpol.sk [email protected] All rights reserved. Any reproduction or copying of this work is allowed only with the permission of the publisher. Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and should not be con- structed as representing the opinions or policy of any organization partici- pating in preparing the publication. ISBN 978-80-972526-1-9 EAN 9788092752618 Róbert Ondrejcsák Peter Bátor Richard Q. Turcsányi Michal Mochťak (eds.) PANORAMA of Global Security Environment The Central European Perspective 2017-2018 With support of: U.S. Embassy in Slovakia Embassy of the United States of America ★ ★ ★ ★ Embassy of the United States of America ★ ★ ★ ★ Partners: STRATPOL Bratislava 2018 Editors: Reviewers: Róbert Ondrejcsák Ondřej Zacha Peter Bátor Adam Potočnák Richard Q. Turcsányi Mihai Chihaiha Michal Mochťak Maryna Vorotnyuk Authors: Ondřej Filip Andrii Chubyk Sante Fiorellini Ilgar Gurbanov Dušan Fischer Juraj Nosál Tomáš Hrozenský Petra Andělová Martin Chovančík Mária Strašáková Katarína Jurišová Jan Daniel Nadiia Koval Michal Fliegel Vladimír Šimoňák Arnold H. Kammel Václav Walach Barbora Olejárová Aaron T. Walter Matej Šimalčík Diana Cucos Lukáš Tichý Plamen Dimitrov Richard Q. Turcsányi Toni Čerkez Kristína Kironská Yevgeniya Gaber Matej Šimalčík Kristine Gasparyan Jaroslav Ušiak Mykhailo Gonchar Dominika Kosárová Head Coordinator: Tomáš Lalkovič Cover: František Hříbal Proofreading: HOPE Language Service Lay-out: František Hříbal Printed by: TYPIN Polygrafické služby Contents A. Europe and North Atlantic.................................................................13 EU AND V4 RESPONSE TO TERRORISM AFTER PARIS.......................14 Ondřej Filipec THE UNCHARTED TERRITORIES OF THE EU’S MUTUAL DEFENCE CLAUSE AN ANALYSIS OF ARTICLE 42 (7) TEU AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR FINLAND AND SWEDEN....................25 Sante Fiorellini ATLANTIC RECOVERY – THE QUEST FOR A NEW PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE................................................................................................... 41 Dušan Fischer STATUS OF INTERSECTIONS BETWEEN CYBER SECURITY AND SPACE SECURITY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION................................................................................................................58 Tomáš Hrozenský ARMS IMPORT DIVERSIFICATION IN EUROPE’S UNDERBELLY. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REVERSAL OF THE RESPONSIBLE TREND IN ARMS TRANSFERS........................ 73 Martin Chovančík PROMISES AND OUTCOMES: A LOOK AT THE NATO WARSAW SUMMIT.......................................................................................... 86 Katarína Jurišová BRITISH SECURITY STRATEGY AND POLICY: THE IMPACT OF RUSSIAN AGGRESSION AGAINST UKRAINE..........................................................................................................100 Nadiia Koval MIGRATION IN EU EXTERNAL RELATIONS: IN THE SEARCH OF “MORE FOR MORE”...............................................114 Vladimír Šimoňák VERNACULAR SECURITY IN A SOCIALLY EXCLUDED LOCALITY................................................................................126 Václav Walach NEW SECURITY THREAT: APPROACHES AND RESPONSES TO CYBERSECURITY WITHIN THE V4 NATIONS..........................................................................................144 Aaron T. Walter B. Neighbouring regions: Eastern Partnership countries and Eastern Europe................................166 THE RETURN OF CLASSICAL GEOPOLITICS: THE BLACK SEA REGION AFTER THE ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA........................................................................168 Diana Cucos and Plamen Dimitrov EU-TURKEY MIGRATION DEAL: A PYRRHIC VICTORY...................183 Toni Čerkez SECURITY TRIANGLE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION: TURKEY, RUSSIA, UNITED STATES..........................................................199 Yevgeniya Gaber THE EU SECURITY POLICY IMPLICATIONS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND THE REGIONAL FACTORS...............222 Kristine Gasparyan WAR OF HYBRID TYPE “MADE IN RUSSIA” (THE EXAMPLE OF AGGRESSION AGAINST UKRAINE)..................237 Mykhailo Gonchar and Andrii Chubyk AZERBAIJAN’S TRILATERAL AND BILATERAL MILITARY COOPERATION WITH TURKEY AND GEORGIA: IMPORTANT FOR AZERBAIJAN’S SECURITY CALCULATIONS............................................................................................252 Ilgar Gurbanov ROLE OF THE OSCE IN THE POST-CRIMEAN SECURITY ENVIRONMENT.............................................................................................271 Juraj Nosál C. Outlying regions.........................................................................................292 THE RISE OF NATIONALISM IN ASIA: THE CASE OF CHINA AND VIETNAM....................................................293 Petra Andělová and Mária Strašáková THE ARMY, PEOPLE AND THE RESISTANCE: CONTENIOUS POLITICS OF RELATIONS BETWEEN THE LEBANESE STATE AND HEZBOLLAH............................................304 Jan Daniel DEPLOYMENT OF AMERICAN THAAD IN SOUTH KOREA: A COMPARISON WITH THE UNREALIZED ANTI-MISSILE SYSTEM IN POLAND AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC...........................315 Michal Fliegel EUROPE AND AFRICA – TOWARDS ACHIEVING REAL PROGRESS IN THEIR PARTNERSHIP?.........................................325 Arnold H. Kammel MIGRATION AS A TOOL OF STATE’S FOREIGN POLICY: CASE STUDY – TURKEY..............................................................................337 Barbora Olejárová STORIES ABOUT MIDDLE KINGDOM: CASE STUDY OF THE SLOVAK PERCEPTION OF CHINA AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SECURITY POLICY........................................................................................348 Matej Šimalčík THE ISLAMIC STATE AND THE TERRORIST ATTACK ON THE ENERGY SECTOR IN NORTH AFRICA: CASE OF LIBYA ............................................................................................366 Lukáš Tichý SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE FOR SLOVAKIA.......................................................................377 Richard Q. Turcsányi, Kristína Kironská and Matej Šimalčík IDEOLOGICAL ROOTS OF “ISLAMIC” TERRORISM...........................393 Dominika Kosárová and Jaroslav Ušiak 12 A Europe and North Atlantic 12 13 14 EU AND V4 RESPONSE TO TERRORISM AFTER PARIS A EU AND V4 RESPONSE TO TERRORISM AFTER PARIS ONDŘEJ FILIPEC Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Trnava Introduction There is a long history of cooperation within EU counter-terrorism policy which has been the subject of hundreds of academic books and articles utilizing various approaches. However, with the constant development of the environment and updated measures, the natural disadvantage of all published studies in this area is that they are aging very quickly. In 2013, Raphael Bossong published a comprehensive book analysing the development of the EU counter-terrorism policy by using the three streams approach, focusing on securitization, politics and policy outcomes (Bossong, 2013). It is evident from his book that every significant terrorist attack has created a “window of opportunity” during which the national interests of the EU Member States were transformed into policy outcomes resulting in the strengthening of the EU counter-terrorism policy. This paper develops and updates the work of Raphael Bossong, focusing on EU level and national level policy development after the 2015 Paris attacks. Nevertheless, due to the limited space, Bossong’s complex approach has been reduced to a short period of time (2015-2017) with a focus on policy changes within V4 countries at the national level. Moreover, policy developments at both the EU and V4 national levels are analyzed in the light of the existing EU counter-terrorism strategy which is related to the principal research question: Which of the four pillars defined within the EU Counter-Terrorism Strategy (EUCTS) was mostly developed by policy changes adopted in 2015-2017? As indicated above, measures will be analyzed at the EU and V4 level. The main claim verified in this paper is that the Paris attacks provided a new “window of opportunity”