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August 2017 America’s Leading Renewables Market in Flux Community choice aggregators in as many as 23 California counties, power marketers and customer-sited generation like rooftop solar could take as much as 85% of electricity load from utilities by the 2020s. The California Public Utilities Commission is in the process of changing two key constructs that are central to the economics of solar: net metering and time-of-use pricing. Storage is starting to gain a foothold and could displace gas peakers. Four key market participants had a lively discussion at the 28th annual Chadbourne global energy and finance conference near San Francisco in June about how these and other changes are transforming California. The panelists are The Honorable Liane Randolph, a member of the California Public Utilities Commission, Jan Smutny-Jones, CEO of the Independent Energy Producers Association in California, Ed Fenster, executive chairman of solar rooftop company Sunrun, and Susan Kennedy, CEO of energy storage company Advanced Microgrid Solutions and former chief of staff to California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The moderator is Todd Alexander with Norton Rose Fulbright in New York. CCAs MR. ALEXANDER: Jan Smutny-Jones, what are community choice aggregators? MR. SMUTNY-JONES: It is fitting that this panel follows the Latin American one. California has a lot in common with our neighbors south of the border, except you / continued page 2 IN THIS ISSUE 1 America’s Leading NORTH CAROLINA opened the door to more solar energy while imposing Renewables Market in Flux an 18-month moratorium on new construction permits for wind farms. 11 Corporate PPAs Both actions are in a bill the governor signed in late July. 15 Community Solar Risks The solar provisions cut both ways. and Landscape North Carolina is second in the nation in terms of solar generating 26 New Trends capacity with a little over 3,000 megawatts. 34 Solar + Storage: Solar developers have been able to enter into standard-offer contracts US Regulatory Issues with North Carolina utilities to sell them electricity from small solar 38 US Offshore Wind projects of up to five megawatts in size. The sales are at the utility’s 44 As Solar Ascends “avoided cost” the utility would have to pay to generate the same electric- 52 Renewable Energy Finance: NEWS IN OTHER ity itself. The bill reduces the project size to qualify for / continued page 3 State of Play 62 Environmental Update This publication may constitute attorney advertising in some jurisdictions. California is an oversupply. These are the same conditions that preceded continued from page 1 the energy crisis in 2000. But back then, as Jan suggested, you could depart the bundled service and be a direct-access cannot get political risk insurance for doing business here. customer. [Laughter] In 2002, after the California energy crisis, the state put Now that that gate has been shut and frozen, a CCA is the path a freeze on allowing electricity customers to choose their suppli- of choice for communities that want to get out of bundled ers. We came up instead with the concept that communities can service. The concept lay dormant for a number of years because choose to leave the utility and form their own procurement the economics were not compelling enough to use it, but we are entities. starting to see the same conditions again where people are It is important to understand that a CCA is not the same thing looking for alternatives to bundled service. A CCA is the place to as a publicly owned utility. It is only doing procurement. This lay go because direct access is not available. dormant for about a decade and then around 2010 to 2012, MR. FENSTER: This is really just a longer-term trend that we Marin County, which is north of San Francisco, formed a CCA. I see in our business and that drives our business: customers want think there are five now: Marin, Sonoma, San Francisco, the choice. Rooftop solar is one manifestation of that. CCAs are peninsula, and Lancaster, which is down in the high desert. another manifestation of that. They are basically joint powers agencies that are not tied There is a hot debate about how this should work, but if a directly to a local government, so this presents a credit challenge. community leaves the local utility to form a CCA, there is a dis- Are they creditworthy? They have been growing over the last tribution charge or what is called a power charge indifference couple years, and there is speculation that anywhere between adjustment. 40% and 80% of the electricity customers will end up in CCAs. You are seeing a lot of CCAs supporting renewables. People One last important point: it is not really choice. If your local want a higher renewables percentage than the local utility is government decides to form a CCA, you become a customer of currently offering. Marin has over twice the renewables procure- the CCA. You can opt out, meaning you can go back to your local ment that PG&E has. utility. MS. KENNEDY: That’s right. While the original motivation for MR. ALEXANDER: Susan Kennedy, you were on the California CCAs was just wanting to get out of bundled service from the Public Utilities Commission around the time these rules were local utility in an effort to lower costs, the availability and falling first being implemented. Was it intended that 20% to 80% of prices for renewable energy have really fueled the growth of customers would procure their energy through community CCAs. The CCAs want cleaner energy. choice aggregators? Why were CCAs put in place? What do you MR. ALEXANDER: Jan Smutny-Jones, CCAs want more renew- think the impact will be? able energy. If I am a solar developer with a 100-megawatt solar MS. KENNEDY: Interesting. The market today is one in which project, can I sign a 100-megawatt power purchase agreement commodity prices are going down, rates are going up, and there with a CCA and use that as a basis for financing my project? How do I prove to the banks I want to lend me money that the CCA is creditworthy? MR. SMUTNY-JONES: There are several issues buried in that California is struggling with how to do resource question. CCAs were originally not seen as a suitable foundation planning for a power system that is being atomized for building new large-scale power plants. The thought was into smaller and smaller pieces. new generators may sell some of their output to the CCAs, but not the entire output. 2 PROJECT FINANCE NEWSWIRE AUGUST 2017 such contracts in the future to just one megawatt, Some of the CCAs have started recently to enter into long-term and the size limit for contracts with individual contracts. It is unclear whether this type of buying will become utilities will drop to 100 kilowatts once the utility the norm or represents a few one-off situations. has signed 100 megawatts of standard-offer I have been doing this for a very long time and my understand- contracts after November 15, 2016. ing of the wall of money that we have heard the investment Past standard-offer contracts had terms of bankers say is searching for projects has always wanted credit- 15 years. Future contracts will have terms of “up worthy counterparties. CCAs do not have credit ratings. Perhaps to” 10 years. Marin is different. It has been in existence for a little longer than Developers with larger projects can negotiate the others. It is a wealthy community. Maybe relying on it to pay directly with utilities, but any such power is a low risk. However, creditworthiness is very much a live issue purchase agreements signed cannot fix the for how this phenomenon gets any momentum. electricity price for more than five years. MR. FENSTER: It would be malpractice for anyone trying to In better news, the bill orders North Carolina start a power company today not to realize we are in a state of utilities to issue requests for proposals to buy deep change in the electric industry. We have the rise of electric “energy and capacity from renewable energy cars, which might add to load. There is an energy efficiency facilities in the aggregate amount of 2,660 movement, which might reduce load. More people are opting megawatts.” The procurements are supposed to for choice. More people want rooftop solar. Projecting exactly be spread over a 45-month period. Only projects what load will look like five or 10 years out is as hard as it has of up to 80 megawatts can bid. ever been, and so you need to adopt an athletic position and be Utilities are allowed to build up to 30% of the well capitalized to be able to move with the changing market. 2,660 megawatts themselves. The rest must come from buying projects from developers or signing Regulatory Challenges power purchase agreements with terms that are MR. ALEXANDER: Perfect transition to the next question. Liane initially expected to run 20 years. The bill directs Randolph, how do the utility regulators plan in such a market? the North Carolina Public Utilities Commission to The state has a goal of getting to 50% renewable energy by 2030, explore additional procurements after the initial and there is talk of pushing the target to 100%. How does the 45-month period. state plan in a market where it is not clear who will buy electricity Independent generators will also have a third from whom and who is obligated to do what? option.
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