South Sea: The Strategic Implicaons of China’s Arficial Islands

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Australian Instute of Internaonal Affairs (NSW), The Glover Coages, Sydney, September 15, 2015 Outline

• Drivers of Chinese asserveness: – Naonalism – Fisheries – Hydrocarbons – Strategic Imperaves • China’s Arficial Islands • Implicaons for Australia

1. Chinese Naonalism

• Elite naonalism • Great Dream of Naonal Revitalisaon • Great naonal rejuvenaon • Mass naonalism – an-Japanese • Chauvinism – aggressive patriosm/impunity • Hacvism Domesc Actors

• Fishing industry • Oil industry – China Naonal Offshore Oil Corporaon (CNOOC) • Provincial governments • Marime Enforcement Agencies – Coast Guard, State Oceanographic Administraon • People’s Liberaon Army Navy

China’s Posion Paper on the (2014) • ‘Chinese acvies in the South China Sea date back to over 2,000 years ago. China was the first country to discover, name, explore and exploit the resources of the and the first to connuously exercise sovereign powers over them’. 2. China’s Fishing Industry - the ‘third marime arm’ Baosha 001

32,000 ton seafood processing ship 3. Hydrocarbons

Oil Reserves

China’s ‘Naonal Mobile Territory’

HYSY 981 4. Strategic Imperaves

• U.S. Rebalancing is Containment • Counter-intervenon strategy • Protecon of Sea Lines of Communicaon • Power Projecon – Naval Bases – Hainan and Woody Islands – Arficial Islands – forward operang bases United States Rebalancing is Containment of China China’s Counter-Intervenon Strategy

Put U.S. Forces in Western Pacific at Risk

Protecon of Major Shipping Routes Power Projecon – Naval Bases Woody Island, Paracels raised to prefecture- level city in July 2012 with continuing responsibility over , and the 5. China’s Arficial Islands – Not Land Reclamaon China is Only Catching Up What about ‘self-restraint’?

• In November 2002 China and the ASEAN states agreed to: • ‘exercise self-restraint in the conduct of acvies that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability [in the South China Sea].’ – Declaraon on Conduct of Pares in the South China Sea (DOC)

Subi Reef September 3, 2015

Mischief Reef Airfield

Hughes Reef September 2015

What is the purpose?

China Says Analysts Say • Improve living condions • Forward Operang Bases • Meteorological data • Fuel storage • Scienfic research • Piers for naval combatants • Search and rescue • Military aircra • Shelter for fishing boats • Long-range radar • Base for oil exploraon • Advanced an-aircra • Support Coast Guard missile systems • Military defence • Air Defence Idenficaon Zone 6. Implicaons for Australia ’s - Permanent Chinese Presence -uay nduran and 4- n I rat f advance

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. a _ _ .. ..,. r. FRIO ov 'MBER 8, 2013 om.at PLAN Exercise in South China Sea Early 2014 South China Sea: The Strategic Implicaons of China’s Arficial Islands

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Email: [email protected] Website: Scribd.com