South China Sea: The Strategic Implica ons of China’s Ar ficial Islands
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Australian Ins tute of Interna onal Affairs (NSW), The Glover Co ages, Sydney, September 15, 2015 Outline
• Drivers of Chinese asser veness: – Na onalism – Fisheries – Hydrocarbons – Strategic Impera ves • China’s Ar ficial Islands • Implica ons for Australia
1. Chinese Na onalism
• Elite na onalism • Great Dream of Na onal Revitalisa on • Great na onal rejuvena on • Mass na onalism – an -Japanese • Chauvinism – aggressive patrio sm/impunity • Hac vism Domes c Actors
• Fishing industry • Oil industry – China Na onal Offshore Oil Corpora on (CNOOC) • Provincial governments • Mari me Enforcement Agencies – Coast Guard, State Oceanographic Administra on • People’s Libera on Army Navy
China’s Posi on Paper on the South China Sea (2014) • ‘Chinese ac vi es in the South China Sea date back to over 2,000 years ago. China was the first country to discover, name, explore and exploit the resources of the South China Sea Islands and the first to con nuously exercise sovereign powers over them’. 2. China’s Fishing Industry - the ‘third mari me arm’ Hainan Baosha 001
32,000 ton seafood processing ship 3. Hydrocarbons
Oil Reserves
China’s ‘Na onal Mobile Territory’
HYSY 981 4. Strategic Impera ves
• U.S. Rebalancing is Containment • Counter-interven on strategy • Protec on of Sea Lines of Communica on • Power Projec on – Naval Bases – Hainan and Woody Islands – Ar ficial Islands – forward opera ng bases United States Rebalancing is Containment of China China’s Counter-Interven on Strategy
Put U.S. Forces in Western Pacific at Risk
Protec on of Major Shipping Routes Power Projec on – Naval Bases Woody Island, Paracels Sansha raised to prefecture- level city in July 2012 with continuing responsibility over Paracel Islands, Macclesfield Bank and the Spratly Islands 5. China’s Ar ficial Islands – Not Land Reclama on China is Only Catching Up What about ‘self-restraint’?
• In November 2002 China and the ASEAN states agreed to: • ‘exercise self-restraint in the conduct of ac vi es that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability [in the South China Sea].’ – Declara on on Conduct of Par es in the South China Sea (DOC)
Subi Reef Subi Reef September 3, 2015
Mischief Reef Airfield
Hughes Reef September 2015
What is the purpose?
China Says Analysts Say • Improve living condi ons • Forward Opera ng Bases • Meteorological data • Fuel storage • Scien fic research • Piers for naval combatants • Search and rescue • Military aircra • Shelter for fishing boats • Long-range radar • Base for oil explora on • Advanced an -aircra • Support Coast Guard missile systems • Military defence • Air Defence Iden fica on Zone 6. Implica ons for Australia Malaysia’s Luconia Shoals - Permanent Chinese Presence -uay nduran and 4- n I rat f advance
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Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Email: [email protected] Website: Scribd.com