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After the Sanctions: Iran's Renewable Energy Outlook. a Technical Die approbierte Originalversion dieser Diplom-/ Masterarbeit ist in der Hauptbibliothek der Tech- nischen Universität Wien aufgestellt und zugänglich. MSc Program http://www.ub.tuwien.ac.at Renewable Energy in Central and Eastern Europe The approved original version of this diploma or master thesis is available at the main library of the Vienna University of Technology. http://www.ub.tuwien.ac.at/eng After the sanctions: Iran’s renewable energy outlook. A technical, economic and policy analysis. A Master’s Thesis submitted for the degree of “Master of Science” supervised by Dipl.-Ing. Dr. Gustav Resch Bernhard Florian Zlanabitnig 9403445 November 2016, Vienna Affidavit I, Bernhard Florian Zlanabitnig, hereby declare 1. that I am the sole author of the present Master Thesis, "After the sanctions: Iran’s renewable energy outlook. A technical, economic and policy analysis.", 148 pages, bound, and that I have not used any source or tool other than those referenced or any other illicit aid or tool, and 2. that I have not prior to this date submitted this Master Thesis as an examination paper in any form in Austria or abroad. Vienna, 22.11.2016 ___________________________ Date Signature ACKNOWLEDGEMENT "As you start to walk on the way, the way appears". Rumi (Persian poet) I wish to express my sincere gratitude to Liz Hiester. I would not have been able to submit my application for the ‘Presse Stipendium’ without her. With the same deep gratitude I would like to thank ‘Die Presse’, the Continuing Education Center of the Technical University Vienna and the ‘Energiepark Bruck/Leitha’ for granting me this generous scholarship. I sincerely thank my mother, father, my sister Ina, all my family and Rodrigo Cares for their exhaustless support during difficult periods of this writing process. I owe a deep sense of gratitude to the RIEMP Institute in Tehran, Dr. Iranmanesh, Prof. Ghaderi, Arash Miranian, Majid Abdollahzade Yasaman Salajegheh and Seyed M. Reza Goldansaz for their hospitality and courtesy while my research stay. It was a privilege to stay at your institute. I will never forget this time of my life! A thank profusely Mr. Eni. I am extremely thankful to my supervisors Gustav Resch and Reinhard Haas for their guidance and encouragement in carrying out this project work. I want to dedicate this work to my unborn nephew. You are the future. And so is green energy. 1 Abstract Iran is endowed with excellent climatic and tectonic conditions for harvesting green energy. The main objectives of this thesis were to identify the technical potential and the economic feasibility of three specific renewable energy sources, namely solar/photovoltaic, wind and geothermal energy. In addition, this study looked at current energy-policies and how they support or hinder the development of sustainable energy. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats were aggregated, giving an overview of the country’s to-do list for a successful green energy future in particular under the perspective of UN-sanctions relief in January of 2016. While the technical potential was estimated with mathematical equations based on available data, statistics (e.g. Weibull distribution) and assumptions, the economic potential (NPV, LRGC, project/equity IRR) was calculated for one specific site or plant per energy source under real-time conditions (feed-in-tariffs, escalation rate, inflation exchange, etc.), including a stress test (sensitivity analyses) for O&M costs, feed-in- tariffs and full-load-hours. The research was rounded up with a two month cooperation stay on-site with the Research Institute of Energy Management and Planning (RIEMP). The examination of current energy-policies was conducted with a SWOT analysis, followed by recommendations and strategies for policy-makers and investors. The technical potential for solar energy was estimated to be 37,145 GW and 56,597 TWh, respectively; 186 TWh for wind, and 35,7 GW (297 TWh) for geothermal. Under current energy policies, solar power plants are considerable while wind and geothermal power plants are highly economically viable. SWOT analysis of Iran’s 2021 target of 5,000 MW renewables installed capacity concluded that the country will need to make a comprehensive long-term renewable energy package, tackle environmentally harmful subsidies, maintain highly competitive long-run guaranteed purchase prices and additional incentives on renewable energy sources, empower banks and civil society, invest in education and strive for international technology and know-how transfer. 2 TABLE OF CONTENT Acknowledgment ............................................................................................................. 1 Abstract ........................................................................................................................... 2 Table of Contents ........................................................................................................... 3 1. Chapter 1: Overview of the electricity supply system in Iran ...................................... 6 1.1. Motivation .......................................................................................................... 6 1.2. Objectives, questions and methodology of research .......................................... 7 1.3. Introducing Iran .................................................................................................. 8 1.4. Relation between Iran & Austria ...................................................................... 10 1.5. Overview of Iran’s energy & electricity market ................................................. 12 1.5.1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 12 1.5.2. Electricity demand ................................................................................. 15 1.5.3. Electricity generation and consumption ................................................. 16 1.5.4. Energy Subsidies and Electricity Tariffs ................................................ 17 1.5.5. Supporting Policies for renewable energy (systems) ............................. 18 1.5.6. Adjustment Formula .............................................................................. 20 1.5.7. Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) ....................................................... 22 1.5.8. Process of Project Development ........................................................... 22 1.5.9. Process and Financing Schemes .......................................................... 24 1.5.10. Key Actors ............................................................................................. 25 2. Chapter 2 – Photovoltaic electricity in Iran ............................................................... 27 2.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 27 2.2. Iran’s Solar Market .......................................................................................... 28 2.3. Photovoltaic and state of technology ................................................................ 30 2.4. Environmental Impacts ..................................................................................... 33 2.5. Technical Market Potential of Solar PV in Iran .................................................. 35 2.5.1. Natural conditions for PV ........................................................................ 35 2.5.2. Methodology ......................................................................................... 37 2.5.3. System performance ratio ...................................................................... 37 2.5.4. Global Solar Irradiation .......................................................................... 38 2.5.5. Solar areas in Iran ................................................................................. 38 2.5.6. Results of technical electricity potential by province and in total ............ 39 2.6. Economic feasibility ......................................................................................... 41 3 2.6.1. Business Mode Description .................................................................... 41 2.6.2. Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) ....................................................... 42 2.6.3. Results and profitability analysis ........................................................... 43 2.7. Sensitivity Analyses ......................................................................................... 46 3. Chapter 3: Wind Energy in Iran ............................................................................... 48 3.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 48 3.2. World installed wind capacity ............................................................................ 49 3.3. Iran’s wind electricity market ............................................................................. 51 3.3.1. Installed wind capacity .......................................................................... 51 3.3.2. Wind energy generation ......................................................................... 53 3.3.3. Wind energy policies .............................................................................. 54 3.4. State of wind technology ................................................................................... 55 3.4.1. Wind turbine technology ......................................................................... 56 3.4.2. Average
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