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Playing Against the Odds: The Role of Mood, Experience and Risk in Decision-making Melinda Morgan Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the PhD degree in Experimental Psychology School of Psychology Faculty of Social Sciences University of Ottawa © Melinda Morgan, Ottawa, Canada, 2013 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS There are many individuals that have provided support and helpful feedback on this project over the years that I would like to thank: Dr. Celine Blanchard – Thank you Celine for giving me the freedom as my supervisor to be myself and explore my academic passions. There were no guarantees as to how it would all turn out. Thank you for taking the jump and believing in the project with me. Your support, constructive critiques and guidance have been invaluable in making this dissertation the best that it can be. My thesis committee: Dr. Pierre Mercier, Dr. Silvia Bonaccio and Dr. Sylvain Chartier. Thank you to my committee for helping me hone and improve this project. Your feedback was invaluable during the design stage. Thank you also for your encouragement and enthusiasm and sharing my excitement to see where this would lead. People that consulted on the project: Dr. Denis Cousineau – Thank you for helping me perfect the statistics of the analyses. Your patience and guidance was very appreciated. Dr. Pietre Hoftstra – Thank you for consulting on the quantification of risk and decisions. Your math and poker knowledge was invaluable. My Poker Savvy friends – Thank you for your endless hours of brainstorming with me – and listening to me think aloud and groan about not knowing how to measure this hobby we love. Thank you also to the Ottawa poker community for taking part and spreading the word! Last but not least: To Chris: You have been my rock and number one fan. Words can’t express my thanks. You have encouraged me, supported me and reminded me often of why I was doing this. Thank you to my family and close friends. The support and encouragement over the years got me through and helped me to persevere despite obstacles. Words don’t capture my appreciation. ii ABSTRACT Past research in decision-making has typically utilized hypothetical measures or simplified gambles to investigate the decisions people make. This method has been criticized as it lacks ecological validity and omits background knowledge and experience from the decision process. Mixed findings in the literature have emerged in terms of the effects positive and negative affect on risk-taking. The Affect Infusion Model (AIM) consolidates the mixed findings by incorporating factors that affect the extent to which affect is infused in the judgment process (i.e. experience). The current research examined the effects of mood on risk-taking in a decision task that allowed for background knowledge and experience; the game of poker. Three studies were conducted to test the predictions of the AIM using a novel methodology. Mood was manipulated in all three studies. Study 1 found evidence of the moderating role of experience in the relationship between affect and risk-taking in a hypothetical poker decision task. The decisions of more experienced participants were less infused with affect than less experienced participants. Study 2 replicated the findings of Study 1 in a real-time poker task conducted in a laboratory setting. Study 3, using a similar design to Study 2, introduced a task incentive and an additional condition that provided real-time odds/expected value information during the decision task. An unexpected finding emerged with respect to the moderating role of experience in the relationship between affect and risk-taking. With the introduction of a task incentive, the decisions of more experienced participants were more infused with affect than less experienced participants during the first 20 minutes of the task. Evidence of a main effect of Mood and Odds Information was also found. An additional Mood X Odds Information effect on risk-taking emerged for decisions early in the decision task. The results obtained in the present research program are discussed with respect to their novel contributions to the decision- making and risk-taking literature. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract .........................................................................................................................................iii List of Tables ...............................................................................................................................viii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................x List of Appendices ........................................................................................................................ xi CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................................... 1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 1 Mood and Risk-Taking in Decision-Making ........................................................................... 2 Inconsistent Findings in the Mood-Risk Taking Literature ..................................................... 6 Mood and Decision-Making in a Complex, Skilled Gambling Task: Texas Hold’Em Poker ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Expected Value and Optimal Decision-Making .................................................................... 14 The Present Research ............................................................................................................. 17 CHAPTER TWO ........................................................................................................................ 19 STUDY 1................................................................................................................................... 19 Method .................................................................................................................................. 19 Participants. ........................................................................................................................ 19 Measures. ........................................................................................................................... 20 Procedure and Materials. ................................................................................................... 23 iv Results ................................................................................................................................... 25 Data Screening. .................................................................................................................. 25 Validity of Mood Induction. .............................................................................................. 27 Preliminary Analyses. ........................................................................................................ 30 Characteristics of Experienced vs. Less Experienced Players. ...................................... 30 Bivariate Relations. ........................................................................................................ 30 Investigating Group Differences in Decision-Making. ...................................................... 33 The Interaction of Affect and Experience in Decision-Making. ........................................ 33 Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 35 CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................... 37 STUDY 2................................................................................................................................... 37 Method .................................................................................................................................. 37 Participants. ........................................................................................................................ 37 Measures. ........................................................................................................................... 39 Procedure and Materials. ................................................................................................... 43 Results ................................................................................................................................... 47 Data Screening. .................................................................................................................. 47 Validity of Mood Induction. .............................................................................................. 48 Preliminary Analyses. ........................................................................................................ 53 Characteristics of Experienced vs. Less Experienced Players. ...................................... 53 v Bivariate Relations among Variables of Interest. ........................................................... 54 Investigating Group Effects in Decision-Making. ............................................................. 55 The Interaction of Affect and Experience in Decision-Making. ........................................ 56 Discussion ............................................................................................................................
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