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Office Savills Research Shanghai – February 2019 MARKET IN MINUTES Office Savills Research Savills team Please contact us for further information RESEARCH James Macdonald Senior Director China +8621 6391 6688 james.macdonald@ savills.com.cn Older buildings come under pressure COMMERCIAL Longer digestion periods for new projects and higher vacancies in old Cary Zheng Senior Director buildings stepped up pressure on landlords from increasing new stock. Central China +8621 6391 6688 • Jing’an International Centre launched onto the core office new supply was recorded in Hongqiao Transportation Hub cary.zheng@ savills.com.cn market in Q4/2018, adding 65,000 sq m of new office space (HTH), Houtan and Wujiaochang in 2018, leaving these and bringing the full-year supply to 778,500 sq m. markets to absorb current stock throughout the year. Peter Sheng Director • Net take-up slowed to 637,800 sq m in 2018, down 9% from • Continued economic uncertainties caused some tenants, Shanghai a high base in 2017, but remained strong considering market especially foreign companies, to be cautious on relocations, +8621 6391 6688 history. or consider more flexible options such as co-working spaces. peter.sheng@ savills.com.cn • Continued oversupply resulted in an annual increase of 0.5 Savills plc Savills is a leading global real of a percentage point (ppt) in vacancy rates, to 12.4% in estate service provider listed on Q4/2018. the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled “ Rising vacancy as a result of growth. It is a company that leads • Core market rents increased by 0.3% on an index basis in rather than follows, and now has over 600 offices and associates 2018, currently averaging RMB9.0 per sq m per day. throughout the Americas, Europe, new supply forced landlords Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. This report is for general • Vacancy rates in decentralised areas fell by 1.8 ppts quarter- informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or on-quarter (QoQ) and 2 ppts year-on-year (YoY) to 32% in to consider lowering rents.” quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any Q4/2018. However, rents remained flat over the year on an contract, prospectus, agreement index basis, averaging RMB5.8 per sq m per day. JAMES MACDONALD, SAVILLS RESEARCH or other document without prior consent. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability • The decentralised market continued to receive new supply whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its of nearly 70,000 sq m in the fourth quarter. However, no use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. savills.com.cn/research 1 Office CORE MARKET DECENTRALISED MARKET GRAPH 1: Grade A Office Core Market Supply, Take-up And Vacancy, 2014 to 2018 The handover of Jing’an International Centre Two new projects, CIFI Office Park in in Q4/2018 added 65,000 sq m of new Grade A Xinzhuang and Xuhui Vanke Centre Phase Supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy (RHS) office space onto the core market, bringing the 2, were handed over to the decentralised 1.4 14% full-year supply to 778,500 sq m in 2018, down market in Q4/2018, adding nearly 70,000 sq 27% from the peak in 2017. Grade A office m of new office space and bringing the total 1.2 12% stock in core areas totalled 8.9 million sq m at decentralised stock to 4.1 million sq m by the the end of 2018, an increase of 10% from 2017. end of 2018. The Xuhui Vanke Centre Phase 1.0 10% The vacancy rate remained high at 12.4% 2 consists of three office towers, one for lease 0.8 8% in Q4/2018, an annual increase of 0.5 of a ppt. and the other two rumoured to be under sale Demand slowed to 68,000 sq m in Q4/2018, processes. 0.6 6% though still up 26% YoY. The West Nanjing Vacancy rates in the decentralised market million sq m million Road area continued to record negative take- fell by 1.8 ppts QoQ and 2 ppts YoY to 32% in 0.4 4% up and consequently higher vacancy rates of Q4/2018. However, rents remained flat on an 14%. Landlords of older projects in downtown index basis at around RMB5.8 per sq m per 0.2 2% areas have been aware of the tough situation day for 21 months. in which differences between mature and Pudong’s Qiantan and Houtan as well as 0.0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 new business areas are narrowing—cost, Puxi’s Xuhui Riverside will see a number of proximity and IT factors currently outweigh new projects completed in 2019. In particular, Source Savills Research the importance of just location in the tenant the city will accelerate its development of market. Old Huangpu was another case of the artificial intelligence sector, which the office space being handed back to the market, government assigned to Xuhui Riverside. HTH though co-working managed to absorb some will see only one new project in 2019. of the vacant spaces in the area. GRAPH 2:Grade A Office Core Market Rental The financial sector continued to dominate MARKET OUTLOOK Indices, Q1/2014 to Q1/2018 office demand, accounting for 24% of total Supply will continue to be the biggest City-wide Nanjing Rd (W) Huaihai Rd (M) recorded take-up in Q4/2018. The insurance challenge for the Shanghai office market in Lujiazui Old Huangpu Xujiahui Hongqiao Zhuyuan North Station sector was particularly active in taking up 2019, especially after several projects were 220 office space, and demonstrated that preferred delayed from 2018. More than one million locations are no longer necessarily in Pudong sq m of Grade A office space is scheduled to 200 as in the past. Notable deals included launch in core and decentralised locations, respectively. 180 Manulife-Sinochem leasing 5,000 sq m in Raffles City Changning in Hongqiao; Metlife Judging from the government’s recent 160 taking up two whole floors totalling 4,800 moves, the city’s business environment will sq m in Century Link in Zhuyuan; and AIA be largely improved in 2019. Favourable Q2/1999=100 140 leasing two whole floors totalling around measures to invigorate the private sector 5,000 sq m in Shanghai Landmark Centre in include reduced costs, preferential tax 120 North Bund. policies, financing guarantees, and the 100 Demand was driven mainly by domestic expansion of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone to Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 companies, accounting for nearly 60% of core Lingang area in addition to China’s continuing 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 take-up in Q4/2018. This was more obvious efforts to attract foreign investments and Source Savills Research in the decentralised market with over 70% of open the insurance market wider to foreign domestic deals during the same period. competition. Core market rents increased by 0.3% on an index basis in 2018, currently averaging RMB9.0 per sq m per day. GRAPH 3: Grade A Office Core Market Vacancy, TABLE 1: Notable Leasing Transactions, Q4/2018 Q1/2014 to Q1/2018 TENANT BUSINESS LEASED City-wide Nanjing Rd (W) Huaihai Rd (M) TENANT PROJECT Lujiazui Old Huangpu Xujiahui INDUSTRY DISTRICT AREA (SQ M) Hongqiao Zhuyuan North Station 26% Business centres and 24% Atlas Business Centre Aurora Plaza Lujiazui 7,000 22% co-working 20% spaces 18% Commercial and 16% World Trade Konica Minolta professional Qiantan 7,000 14% Centre services 12% 10% One Museum Pfizer Healthcare Nanjing Rd (W) 5,600 8% Place 6% 4% Raffles City Manulife-Sinochem Finance Hongqiao 5,000 2% Changning 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Shanghai 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AIA Finance Landmark North Bund 5,000 Centre Source Savills Research Source Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 2.
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