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Briefing Office Sector May 2018

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Briefing Office Sector May 2018 Savills World Research Shanghai Briefing Office sector May 2018 Image: Pujiang International Financial Plaza, Hongkou SUMMARY New projects in core areas pushed up vacancy rates by 0.5 percentage points to 12.4% in Q1/2018. One new project, One Museum Core market rents remained flat in Place (博华广场) by Hines, was Q1/2018 at RMB9.0 per sq m per day, launched onto the core office market in though up 1.4% YoY. “In response to the government’s Q1/2018, adding 130,000 sq m of new office space. As a result, the Grade A No new supply was recorded in the call for environmental protection, office stock in core areas totalled 8.2 decentralized market in the first quarter million sq m by the end of Q1/2018. of 2018, leaving the decentralized stock more developers are expected at 3.5 million sq m. Net take-up remained low, totalling to take sustainability into 70,900 sq m in Q1/2018, down 67% As demand focused on existing compared to Q1/2017. stock, vacancy rates in decentralised consideration for their new areas declined by 0.5 ppts in Q1/2018 to New supply pushed up vacancy 37.1%, but remained up 10.3 ppts YoY. developments.” James Macdonald, rates by 0.5 percentage points (ppts) Rents remained flat averaging RMB5.7 quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), to 12.4%, per sq m per day, but up 3.4% YoY. Savills Research and remained up 2.2 ppts year-on-year (YoY). savills.com.cn/research 01 Briefing |Shanghai office sector May 2018 Leasing Market Co-working operators continued to Pudong’s Century Link, occupying Core Market – Supply, Take-up increase their footprint in the city. approximately 5,000 sq m. and Vacancy WeWork opened its new space on The new project pushed up vacancy One new Grade A office project, the 15th floor in Shanghai IFC’s rates in prime Puxi by 3.1 ppts QoQ One Museum Place by Hines, was HSBC Building in March 2018, and to 10.7%, the highest level over the launched onto the core market in has signed a new lease contract past three years. As a consequence, Q1/2018, adding 130,000 sq m of with Yueshang Plaza in Jing’an core market vacancy rates increased new office space. The city’s core district, occupying five floors. by 0.5 ppts QoQ to 12.4%, and Grade A office stock, as a result, Kr Space leased two floors in remained up 2.2 ppts YoY. increased to 8.2 million sq m by the end of Q1/2018. GRAPH 1 Grade A office core market supply, take-up and Core market absorption remained STV EN slow totalling only 70,900 sq m in vacancy, 2000-Q1/2018 Q1/2018, compared to 216,200 sq Supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy (RHS) m in Q1/2017. This came mostly 1.2 18% from the 64,400 sq m take-up in prime Puxi, where activity focused 1.0 15% mainly on the new project. Non- prime Pudong, namely the Zhuyuan 0.8 12% business area, saw spaces being handed back to the market in Q1/2018, with tenant relocations 0.6 9% and reductions outstripping new million sq m leases, expansions and renewals. 0.4 6% Some companies relocated to non- prime Puxi while others relocated 0.2 3% to Pudong decentralized areas or business parks where rents are more 0.0 0% affordable. 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Q1 Source: Savills Research Page 1 TABLE 1 Grade A office core market performance, Q1/2018 Supply (sq m) Take-up (sq m) Vacancy Stock (sq m) Pudong 0 1,400 8.8% 3,847,400 Puxi 130,000 69,500 15.5% 4,390,700 All 130,000 70,900 12.4% 8,238,100 Source: Savills Research TABLE 2 Notable leasing transactions, Q1/2018 Tenant EN Tenant CN Project District Business district Area leases (sq m) Everbright Securities 光大证券 Plaza 66 Jing’an Nanjing Road (W) 10,000 Urban Development Terex 特雷克斯 Xuhui Xujiahui 7,000 Tower Kr Space 氪空间 Century Link Pudong Zhuyuan 5,000 Guangyun Capital 广运资本 HKRI Taikoo Hui Jing’an Nanjing Road (W) 1,700 Jinmei Group 晋煤集团 Aurora Plaza Pudong Lujiazui 1,200 Source: Savills Research 02 Briefing |Shanghai office sector May 2018 GRAPH 2 Core market – rent Grade A office core market rental indices, Core market rents remained flat in Q1/1999-Q1/2018 Q1/2018, at an average of RMB9.0 per sq m per day, though up 1.4% All Puxi prime Pudong prime Puxi non-prime Pudong non-prime YoY. However, landlords remain 220 under competitive pressure from 200 new supply and are more open to Q2/2010–Q1/2018 39.0% increase from trough negotiations with existing tenants to 180 defend occupancy rates. 160 Prime Pudong and Puxi rents 140 averaged RMB11.4 and RMB10.3 120 per sq m per day in Q1/2018, while Q2 / 1999100 Q2 / = Q3/2008–Q2/2010 36.8% decrease from peak non-prime Pudong and Puxi rents 100 averaged RMB8.2 and RMB7.5 80 per sq m per day during the same period. 60 All submarkets witnessed similar Source: Savills Research flat rents with the exception being Pudong’s Zhuyuan area (see Figure 3). While some cost-conscious GRAPH 3 companies were relocating from Rent and vacancy by business district, Q4/2017 vs. Zhuyuan, many finance, insurance Q1/2018 RV CBD EN and professional services Q4/17 rent (LHS) Q1/18 rent (LHS) companies are still looking at this Q4/17 vacancy (RHS) Q1/18 vacancy (RHS) area, resulting in it enjoying one of 12 50% the lowest vacancy rates (6.8%, 11.4 11.4 Q1/2018) among all the core 10 10.310.3 40% 10.310.3 business areas and thus giving 8 30% landlords the confidence to increase 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.1 7.3 7.3 rents. Zhuyuan office rents increased 7.1 7.1 6 6.6 6.6 20% 1.1% in Q1/2018, to an average of 5.8 5.7 RMB8.2 per sq m per day. New-built RMB psqm per day 4 10% Grade A office projects in the area were able to reach RMB10 per sq m 2 0% per day or above. Decentralised Market The decentralised market saw no Non-prime areas Prime areas new supply in Q1/2018, as several Source: Savills Research Page 1 projects were postponed to the second quarter, including Crystal Plaza and World Trade Centre (Ph 2 GRAPH 4 & 3) in Qiantan. As a consequence, Office stock by submarket total decentralised stock remained Prime Non-prime Decentralised at 3.5 million sq m by the end of Q1/2018. 2011 61% 37% 3% As demand focused on existing stock, vacancy rates in decentralised areas declined by 0.5 ppts in 2014 47% 35% 18% Q1/2018 to 37.1%, but remained up 10.3 ppts YoY. Rents remained flat, averaging RMB5.7 per sq m per 2017 35% 35% 30% day, 58% lower than the core market average. 2020E 28% 37% 35% Decentralised market take-up was slow at the beginning of the year, 0% 100% totalling less than 20,000 sq m. Source: Savills Research However, cost-sensitive companies savills.com.cn/research 03 Briefing |Shanghai office sector May 2018 are still looking to upgrade or expand deals concluded in Q1/2018, for a Strata-title to decentralised areas from older total consideration of RMB3.8 billion. The strata-title office market Grade A and Grade B buildings. Office properties in core areas are witnessed 11 projects (including receiving increased investment existing and brand-new projects) Judging from the high vacancy rates attention as they are considered to receiving pre-sale certificates in in some areas, e.g. 53% in Hongqiao be more insulated from downward Q1/2018, compared to the limited Transportation Hub (HTH), the rental pressure than those in new supply in 2017 under tightened market needs more time to absorb decentralized areas. Meanwhile, the restrictions. its large stock. The proportion of market saw an increasing demand A supply of 1,470 units totalling decentralised stock of the city’s total from high-tech companies as well as 465,600 sq m of new office space Grade A office stock has increased from R&D centres and back offices was added to the market. Notable from 3% in 2011, when there were for financial companies for business new projects include Greenland only a few new business areas, parks, given their comparatively low Huangpu, Crystal Plaza in Qiantan to 30% by the end 2017, and is rent and ample options. With leasing and Hongqiao World Centre in HTH. expected to rise further to 35% in demand and rents for business parks three years (see Figure 4). growing, they are in turn attracting Despite sufficient new supply, the large amounts of investment demand side was slow in the first Sales market interests. quarter, with only 10,500 sq m of En-bloc strata office space transacted within The en-bloc office investment market Gross yield remained stable in the Middle Ring Road. Transaction started slowly in 2018, with only three Q1/2018, while NOI yield was prices averaged RMB51,800 per sq approximately 3.4%. m. TABLE 3 Notable en-bloc sales deals, Q1/2018 Total value Project District Buyer Usage (RMB mil) Shanghai International Plaza Hongkou 2,421 LaSalle Investment Lease City of Elite, L6 & L8 Pudong 512 World Union Lease 49% Vi-Hub Pudong 900 BOCGI Lease Source: Savills Research TABLE 4 Selected pre-sale office supply, Q1/2018 Office GFA Estimated asking price Project District Business district (sq m) (RMB per sq m) Greenland Huangpu Huangpu South Huangpu 70,877 70,000 Crystal Plaza Pudong Qiantan 117,527 80,000 Hongqiao World Centre Qingpu HTH 114,595 50,000 Source: Savills Research TABLE 5 Selected first-hand, strata-title sales transactions, Q1/2018 Transaction area Average transaction price Project District Business district (sq m) (RMB per sq m) Greenland Centre, Ph2 Xuhui Xuhui Riverside 2,941 70,800 CITIC Plaza Hongkou North Bund 1,122 52,400 Source: Savills Research 04 Briefing |Shanghai office sector May 2018 Market outlook which could impact the business Co-working market Supply operations of American companies The recent acquisition of Naked Hub Supply levels continue to be the in China.
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