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Space Weather Linked to Terrestrial Weather

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Space Weather Linked to Terrestrial Weather A change in atmosphere A longstanding and fruitful collaboration between Professor Jeffrey Forbes and Dr Maura Hagan has led to several exciting breakthroughs in the burgeoning field of space weather research © CU © Carlye Calvin scale wave model (GSWM) and made the results widely available to the space physics community. More recently, I focused my attention on the NCAR 3D first-principles upper atmospheric general circulation models to further explore tidal and planetary wave impacts on the atmosphere and ionosphere in collaboration with NCAR colleagues, graduate students and postdoctoral fellows. In what ways has your research contributed to a greater understanding of these atmospheric interactions? PROFESSOR JEFFREY FORBES & DR MAURA HAGAN PROFESSOR JF&MH: Our research has created a new level of understanding as to how processes in the lower atmosphere drive How did you both become interested in disturbance, and investigated the impacts variability in the upper atmosphere space weather? of this variability on our ability to predict and ionosphere through the impacts of satellite ephemerides. All of these interests vertically propagating atmospheric tides JF: I was first introduced to atmospheric are still reflected in the research that I and planetary waves. Our model results tides by Professor Marvin Geller while perform today. have provided a context within which many pursuing my MSc at the University of observations of atmosphere and ionosphere Illinois in 1969. He had recently completed MH: Forbes introduced me to the field variability have been interpreted. In his PhD on the lunar atmospheric tide at of atmospheric tidal research while I was addition, we have analysed many ground- the Massachusetts Institute of Technology attending graduate school at Boston and space-based observations to validate (MIT), and we collaborated on a paper College. I conducted thesis research with existing models and to provide direction for concerning the effects of the lunar tide a simple tidal model in pursuit of my further model development. on optical emissions from the upper MSc. My PhD and postgraduate work atmosphere. I then moved on to pursue included diagnosing and interpreting upper How do your skills and experiences my PhD at Harvard, where my advisor was atmospheric tidal signatures in incoherent enable the successful running of the Professor Richard S Lindzen, a leader in the scatter radar measurements made at MIT programme? development of atmospheric tidal theory Haystack Observatory. and models. JF: Our joint collaboration has been fruitful When I came to the National Center for and synergistic. While Hagan has devoted During the 1970s, my military service at Atmospheric Research (NCAR) some herself to the development and application the Air Force Research Laboratory involved 20 years ago, I shifted my focus to the of increasingly sophisticated models, I research into space weather effects of development of numerical tidal and have primarily concentrated on analyses solar origin on the atmospheric drag on planetary wave models. Between 1993 and of satellite-based measurements. This type satellites. I performed scientific studies 2003, I collaborated with Forbes to develop of model-measurement interplay is at the on the variability of drag due to solar increasingly robust versions of the global- heart of advancing our science. 64 INTERNATIONAL INNOVATION PROFESSOR JEFFREY FORBES & DR MAURA HAGAN Would you discuss some of the outcomes and applications of your work? MH: The research we perform is basic, without any immediate applications in mind, though we are aware that our work adds to the knowledge base required to build predictive space weather infrastructure to support operational applications. Rising tides However, there are occasions where it is possible to demonstrate the practical impacts of our work. One of Forbes’s students, for example, demonstrated how upper atmosphere density variations produced by the atmospheric tidal spectrum significantly affect uncertainties in the surface impact location of objects re-entering the atmosphere from space. A similar project to assess tidal effects Researchers based on aerobraking at Mars is ongoing. at the University of What have been the project’s greatest Colorado and the National Center successes? for Atmospheric Research are combining their JF&MH: Our most significant achievement has respective expertise in data analysis and modelling to been demonstrating that troposphere variability shed new light on space weather, with a particular emphasis on how is a significant driver for upper atmosphere and ionosphere space weather. This vertical atmospheric tides affect conditions in the Earth’s upper atmosphere transfer is accomplished through the upward propagation of atmospheric tides and other THE EXISTENCE OF space weather and the ways feed into each other organically: Hagan’s models waves. After almost a decade of developing in which it could impact Earth is a relatively new offer a physical representation of the data Forbes GSWM, we were in a position in 2002-03 to topic among scientists. Adverse events caused by studies, while Forbes can provide insight into the predict the upper atmosphere response to these phenomena could have worrying implications reliability of Hagan’s models and suggest potential realistic lower atmosphere tidal forcing. In for life on Earth. Broadly speaking, space weather improvements for future versions. particular, we focused on the spatial-temporal covers a wide range of environmental conditions distribution of latent heating released in present on the Sun, throughout space and in the UNDERSTANDING ATMOSPHERIC TIDES tropical convective clouds, and how the upper Earth’s magnetic field and upper atmosphere. From atmosphere responds to this forcing. solar flares to geomagnetic storms and coronal Forbes and Hagan aim to learn more about the mass ejections, different types of space weather impact of space weather of the Earth’s upper Over the following decade, and continuing have the potential to seriously impact technological atmosphere – the thermosphere. Research within today, there has been an explosion of systems based both on the ground and in space. their field has established three main factors that publications that interpret observations in lead to its varying conditions: the absorption terms of the spectrum of waves that our Among the vital pieces of infrastructure that of solar extreme ultraviolet radiation into the study predicted. We brought increasingly can be interrupted by space weather are thermosphere; the reprocessing of solar wind sophisticated models to this problem, and satellite operations, electric power distribution energy as electric fields, currents and particles now address nonlinear tide-tide interactions; grids, communications, aviation, navigation that enter the thermosphere; and the upward ionospheric effects; and modification of the and emergency response systems. Given that propagation of waves produced in the lower regions wind circulations and electric fields, thermal our society is increasingly dependent on these of the Earth’s atmosphere. structure and plasma and neutral densities technologies, a severe spate of space weather that result from tidal dissipation. Throughout could potentially damage our health, security and While the pair and their colleagues have worked this work, we have extensively used satellite economy. Therefore, a deeper understanding of the extensively on all three of these sources, they are observations to define the tidal forcing and factors that lead to such occurrences is becoming currently most excited about the latter: “Within provide verification of model predictions. increasingly important, as is the ability to make the last decade a new realisation has arrived on more accurate predictions. the scene of ionosphere-thermosphere science: terrestrial weather significantly influences space weather,” Forbes enthuses. As key players in this A UNIQUE RESEARCH PARTNERSHIP emerging research area, Forbes and Hagan are For over 30 years, Professor Jeffrey Forbes of particularly interested in the role that atmospheric the University of Colorado has been conducting tides play in the variability of space weather pioneering investigations into space weather conditions in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. in collaboration with his colleague Dr Maura Through their research, they are pushing to explain Hagan from the National Center for Atmospheric how upward propagating solar and lunar tides and Research (NCAR). planetary waves transfer energy from the lower atmosphere to the thermosphere, specifically at The individual skills that Forbes and Hagan bring altitudes between 100 km and 500 km. to their partnership are key to its success. While Forbes’s expertise lies primarily in analysis of COMPARING EARTH AND MARS data obtained from a range of satellites, Hagan focuses on the development and application The researchers are currently working on an of intricate models. Both of these components innovative series of comparative studies for the WWW.RESEARCHMEDIA.EU 65 PROFESSOR JEFFREY FORBES & DR MAURA HAGAN tides that spread into The group hypothesises that the upward An artist’s depiction of the CHAMP satellite. © ESA the upper atmosphere propagation of waves into the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. is linked to the density and winds in a given ambient environment. Moreover, they are keen to Forbes leads on the ascertain the outcome of forcing from the lower work conducted on atmosphere when the
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