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19, 1984, 2, Validation of the NCAR Thermospheric General Circulation JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 94, NO. A12, PAGES 16,945-16,959, DECEMBER 1, 1989 Thermospheric Dynamics During September 18-19, 1984 e Validation of the NCAR Thermospheric General Circulation Model G. CROWELY,1,2 B. A. EMERY, 1 R. G. ROBLE,1 H. C. CARLSON,JR., 3 J. E. SALAH,4 V. B. WICKWAR,5 K. L. MILLER, 5 W. L. OLIVER,4,6 R. G. BURNSIDE,7 AND F. A. MARCOS3 The validation of complex nonlinear numerical models suchas the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphericgeneral circulation model (NCAR TGCM) requires a detailed comparison of model predictionswith data. The Equinox Transition Study (ETS) of September17-24, 1984, provided a unique opportunity to addressthe verification of the NCAR TGCM, since unusually large quantities of high-quality thermospheric and ionospheric data were obtained during an intensive observation interval. In a companionpaper (paper 1) by Crowley et al. (this issue) a simulationof the September 18-19 ETS interval was described. Using a novel approach to modeling, the TGCM inputs were tuned where possible with guidance from data describing the appropriate input fields, and the arbitrary adjustmentof input variables in order to obtain thermosphericpredictions which match measurements was avoided. In the present paper the winds, temperatures, and densitiespredicted by the TGCM are compared with measurements from the ETS interval. In many respects, agreement between the predictions and observationsis good. The quiet day observationscontain a strong semidiurnal wind variation which is mainly due to upward propagating tides. The storm day wind behavior is significantly different and includes a surge of equatorward winds due to a global propagating disturbance associatedwith the storm onset. The density data confirm the existence of the newly discovered four-cell high-latitude density anomaly described in paper 1. A quantitative statistical comparison of the predicted and measured winds indicates that the equatorward winds in the model are weaker than the observedwinds, particularly during storm times. This is consistentwith predicted latitudinal temperature gradients and storm time density increaseswhich are much smaller than the observed values. Soft particle precipitation or high-altitude plasma heating is invoked as a possible sourceof the additional high-latitudeheating required by the model. A quiet day phase anomaly in the measured F region winds which is not reproduced by the model suggeststhe occurrence of an important unmodeled interaction between upward propagating semidiurnal tides and high-latitude effects. Wind data from altitudes below 100 km indicate shortcomingsin the generic equinox solar minimum tidal specificationused in the TGCM. The lack of appropriate data to specify input fields seriously impairs our ability to generate realistic global thermosphericsimulations. The problem is particularly acute in the southern hemisphere. Furthermore, disturbancesgenerated in the southern hemisphere simulation propagatenorthward and degrade the northern hemispherepredictions. Thus, if the thermospherein the northern hemisphereis ever to be fully understood,the southernhemisphere needs to be observedand simulatedmore accurately. Several improvementsare suggestedfor future realistic time-dependent simulationsof specificintervals. 1. INTRODUCTION such as density and temperature at thermospheric heights. The Equinox Transition Study (ETS) of September 17-24, The validity of complex numerical models, such as the 1984, provided a unique opportunity to address the verifica- National Center for AtmosphericResearch (NCAR) thermo- tion of the NCAR TGCM, since unusually large quantities of spheric general circulation model (TGCM), must be assessed high-quality thermospheric and ionospheric data were ob- so that they can be exploited for further geophysicalstudies tained during an intensive observation interval [Carlson and and for practical applications, such as "space weather" Crowley, this issue]. prediction. Validation of thermospheric models is particu- One of the main problems for obtaining realistic predic- larly difficult since thermospheric science is data-poor, es- tions of global thermosphericdynamics using TGCMs is the pecially when compared with tropospheric studies. This is specification of the three-dimensional, time-dependent forc- partly due to the difficulty of measuring basic parameters ing fields for any given day. There are enough adjustable parameters in the specification of TGCM forcing fields that 1HighAltitude Observatory, National Center for Atmosphericthe simulation of thermospheric effects at a single station is Research, Boulder, Colorado. 2Nowat Centerfor Atmospheric Research, University of Lowell, relatively easy. However, little effort has so far been made to Lowell, Massachusetts. reduce the number of free parameters (by reference to large 3Air ForceGeophysics Laboratory, Hanscom Air ForceBase, quantities of data) and then to accurately simulate thermo- Bedford, Massachusetts. spheric conditions at many locations simultaneously. 4HaystackObservatory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Westford. In a companion paper by Crowley et al. [this issue], 5Centerfor Atmospheric and Space Sciences, Utah State Univer- hereinafter called paper 1, the thermosphericresponse to the sity, Logan. ETS magnetic storm of September 19, 1984, was simulated 6Nowat Departmentof Electrical,Computer and Systems Engi- using the NCAR TGCM. The inputs for this simulation were neering, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts. 7AreciboObservatory, Arecibo, Puerto Rico. "state of the art," and the number of free parameters was reduced to a minimum. The arbitrary adjustment of input Copyright 1989 by the American Geophysical Union. variablesin order to obtain thermosphericpredictions which Paper number 89JA01550. match measurements was explicitly avoided. 0148-0227/89/89JA-01550505.00 The location and size of the auroral oval and the energies 16,945 16,946 CROWLEY ET AL.'. NCAR TGCM FOR ETS, 2, VALIDATION of precipitating particles in the model were tuned by refer- o ence to satellite data collected during the ETS period. The resulting auroral electron density enhancementswere added to the densities obtained from the international reference ionosphere (IRI) [Bilitza, 1986], and the total electron den- sity was used to calculate ion drag, momentumforcing, and Joule heatingterms at each TGCM time step. The O-O+ collision cross section is another important parameter in determining the ion drag. Recent work by Burnside et al. [1987] suggeststhat the O-O + collision cross sectionof 90 e E 90 e W Schunk and Walker [1973] is too small, and its value was therefore increasedby a factor of 1.5 in the present simula- tion. The convection patterns [Knipp et al., this issue] for the ETS interval were derivedfrom the assimilativemapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) technique of Rich- mond and Kamide [1988], which provides a best fit potential pattern (in the least squares sense) to a variety of iono- spheric data. Paper 1 also emphasized the importance of upward propagating semidiurnal tides for thermospheric 180 e dynamics. These tides were specified at the TGCM lower Fig. 1. Location of 12 ionosondes (solid circles) and four inco- boundary usingthe results of Fesen et al. [1986] for equinox herent scatter radars (open circles) from which meridional neutral solar minimum conditions. winds were derived during the ETS. In the present paper the accuracy of the TGCM predic- tions is assessed by comparison with observations from many locations. Meridional neutral winds are the main geophysical parameter used in assessingthe validity of the in the F region, and subtraction of the diffusion velocity TGCM simulations for a number of reasons: they may be component. Ignoring the normally small vertical wind com- inferred by a variety of measurementtechniques, they are ponent, the projection of the residual velocity onto the available at all times of day from many locations, they are horizontal plane yields an estimate of the neutral wind. very sensitive to changesof high latitude and tidal forcing, Computation of the ion diffusion velocity involves a and they, in turn, play a major part in determiningtemper- knowledge of the neutral atmospherictemperature and com- ature, density, and composition changes on a global scale. position,in additionto a valuefor the O-O+ collisioncross For the ETS interval, meridional neutral wind estimates section [e.g., Burnside et al., 1988]. The neutral parameters were obtained from the European Incoherent Scatter (EIS- are normally obtained from a model such as MSIS [Hedin, CAT), Sondre Stromfjord, Millstone Hill, and Arecibo inco- 1983, 1987], which may be significantly different from the herent scatter radars in addition to a network of 12 ion- conditions which actually existed on the date of interest. The osondesin the northern hemisphere (Figure 1). For the first O-O+ collisioncross section is currentlya subjectof debate. time, the differencesbetween the predicted and measured Burnside et al. [1987] have suggestedthat the values derived winds are quantitatively assessed. Times and locations from the Schunk and Walker [1973] formula should be where the differencesare likely to be exceptionally small or increasedby a factor of 1.7 t-0.34.r +0.71 large are identified. Ionosonde data have also been used to deduce the merid- In addition to the meridional winds, the predicted neutral ionalneutral wind component.Mille) et al. [1986]describe a temperatures and densities
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