Demise Of Anna Movement Collapse Of Principled Government

Defence Production : Need For Indigenisation China’s Military Strategy

and many more ….

Published By: Vivekananda International Foundation 3, San Martin Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi – 110021, [email protected], www.vifindia.org

Contents

ARTICLES

A Purposeless Nation Indo-European Relations: Strategic 44

Alliances 3 - V Anantha Nageswaran - Kanwal Sibal Has The Political Class Failed Us?

Seize The Chance With Dhaka - A. Surya Prakash 47 14 103 - Satish Chandra The ISI’s Psychological Operations

- Dr. Prem Mahadevan The Emperor’s Frayed Clothes 51 18 107 - PP Shukla Afghanistan And America’s New Silk Road Strategy EVENTS 21

- Vinod Anand Seminar On Perspectives From China’s Emerging War Concepts China On Af-Pak Situation And Counter Terrorism 59 - Gurmeet Kanwal 27

Illegal Migration As A Threat To India’s Internal Security 31 - Dr. N. Manoharan

India’s Political Class Lacks Ideology

- Dr. M.N. Buch 36

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 2

Indo-European Relations: Strategic Alliances - Kanwal Sibal

o appreciate better the capitals. subject of India’s defence T relations with Europe some It also needs to be pointed out that reflections of a general nature even though the EU exists as a would be pertinent. The point shared economic space protected needs to be made right at the start by common external tariffs, that India does not have defence individual European countries relations with Europe as such; it commercially compete with each has them with individual other intensely in foreign markets. European countries. In the defence area such competition is even more spirited Europe has forged a strong as the overall cake is much economic personality in the form smaller, the opportunity to win of the European Union, but it has sizable contracts is not many, the failed to develop a common foreign contracts are generally high- and defense policy in the true valued and the margins are sense. When it comes to economic considerable. Also, the contracts issues India, like other countries, create a long term relationship, has to deal with Brussels. with provision of spare parts, training, overhauling, periodic In foreign affairs Europe has upgrades, modernization etc. acquired some role as an providing plentiful returns. interlocutor through the High Representative of the Union for Defence ties, besides, have a Foreign Affairs and Security political element that comercial Policy, with India holding a exchanges do not have. Countries regular dialogue with the EU as a with serious political differences, dialogue partner. But in defence including the potential of conflict, relations India deals, not with can have flourishing economic ties, Brussels, but with individual as is the case between US and

*Kanwal Sibal - Member Advisory Board, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 3

China or Japan and China, not to J&K, that taken by individual mention political differences European countries on sanctions between Russia and Europe not imposed on India because of India- standing in the way of their close Pakistan hostilities or the degree energy ties. In such cases defence of reticence in selling arms in ties are excluded because that pre- order to avoid sharpening tensions supposes a degree of geo-political in a region seen as unstable. understanding beforehand. India’s nuclear and missile programmes have also had a Such ties also give the country bearing on the policies of that sells arms a degree of political European countries with regard to leverage over the recipient country transfer of sensitive or dual use because the latter becomes technologies barred under the dependent on the former for its technology denial regimes set up defence preparedness. The danger by the West. is always there that at a critical moment spare parts may not be Not many countries, even in released or needed ordnance may Europe, manufacture advanced not be available because of defence systems that can be sold imposition of sanctions or the in the international market. existence of a conflict situation. All Defence manufacturing is a high- these aspects are very relevant to cost enterprise as very advanced India’s defence ties with European technologies are involved, which, and other countries. in turn, require huge outlays on R&D for development. The need to India’s defence relations with export in order has some European countries have reflected, economies of scale and amortizes over the years, India’s foreign development costs is therefore a policy choices, its adherence to the pressing one. All the more so policy of non-alignment during the because in the absence of any real Cold War and the impact of the external threat European Cold war on our region with countries have had to reduce their Pakistan deciding to join western defence budgets and the size of military pacts and receiving their standing armed forces, with military aid from the West. The the consequence that domestic position taken by European orders for defence equipment are countries and others on India- not sufficient to achieve the Pakistan differences, especially on wanted economies of scale.

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 4

Conflict-Free Space and the wherewithal they maintain to defend themselves. Europe’s great success is, in fact, the creation of a genuinely conflict For the bigger European powers free geographical space in a which have wielded power continent that has witnessed the internationally for a very long most inhumane period and are and destructive Europe’s great success is, in habituated to it, wars in the past. fact, the creation of a and which have No European genuinely conflict free fought with each country is geographical space in a other and with threatened with continent that has witnessed others in order to aggression by a the most inhumane and advance or neighbour. This destructive wars in the past. preserve their should have argued No European country is interests or impose in favour of a threatened with aggression by their will, the massive a neighbour. This should have possession of a contraction of the argued in favour of a massive sizable defence European defence contraction of the European industry is an sector. Ironically, defence sector. Ironically, expression of their outside the US outside the US which continued big which maintains a maintains a gargantuan power status. It gargantuan defence defence sector and Russia gives credibility to sector and Russia which inherited an oversized their role in which inherited an defence manufacturing base maintaining oversized defence from the Soviet Union but international peace manufacturing which has declined and security base from the considerably, individual whether Soviet Union but European countries still retain institutionalized in which has declined impressive defence the Security considerably, manufacturing capabilities. Council, within the individual ambit of NATO, a European countries still retain “coalition of the willing” or self- impressive defence manufacturing assumed in the light of their capabilities. There is little national interests. Their military relationship between the external capabilties give them the means to threat European countries face project their power outside. Besides this, the civilian off-shoots

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 5 of defence technologies are also pushed for a common European very important as they have a defence policy, but without much bearing on the efforts of these success because of the NATO countries to remain in the factor and the opposition of many forefront of global-level European countries, especially technological innovation. those from the erstwhile Soviet block, not to mention the UK, to For Europe, rivalry with the US, any dilution of the US role in which is both an ally and a European defence. competitor, is a powerful reason to maintain a sizable, independent One needs to keep also in mind defence manufacturing base. If, on that while India and others deal the one hand, the trans-Atlantic with individual European alliance in the form countries for of NATO provides One needs to keep also in mind defence cooperation that while India and others Europe with the deal with individual European and purchases, in US defence countries for defence actual fact umbrella and cooperation and purchases, in Europe’s defence allows it to reduce actual fact Europe’s defence manufacturing has its defence manufacturing has become become mostly expenditure, fears mostly “multinational”. Much “multinational”. of this sector has either been of loss of privatized in Europe or Much of this sector independence in enterprises are jointly owned has either been foreign policy by governments and private privatized in making and capital. Europe or subservience to the enterprises are US makes the major European jointly owned by governments and countries retain sizable defence private capital. capabilities. The economies of scale are sought With the lessons from the conflict to be obtained within Europe itself in Yugoslavia in mind, these by various countries pooling countries also want to be able to requirements and jointly funding maintain peace at least on the defence production programmes. periphery of Europe largely on Work is shared between countries their own rather than relying often in proportion to the size of entirely on the US for this. The the procurement orders placed by French, for example, have long them. Equipment manufactured

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 6 by one country has in it negotiations for the acquisition of components manufactured in 126 combat aircraft by India, is other countries, such is the nature owned by Dassault Group of collaboration in defence (50.55%) and EADS(46.33%), manufacturing today. which means that even if the Eurofighter has been excluded In view of all the acquisitions and from the 126 aircraft competition, mergers that have taken place as EADS, the manufacturer of the part of a consolidation process the Eurofighter, will financially industry has undergone in the face benefit from the Rafale deal. of high costs, competition and declining orders. Hardly any Augusta Westland, which has product is now purely “national”. signed a joint venture agreement Even when a European product is with Tata Sons to assemble its AW being bought it is likely to have 119 helicopters is an Anglo-Italian US made components in it. At the company. Turbomeca, the French level of tie-ups in capital, the aircraft engine maker is tied up trans-national nature of major with Rolls Royce. Thales, another European defence manufacturing French company, which is companies is even more of a involved in India defence reality. programmes, is tied up with Raytheon from the US and BAE The European Aeronautics, from the UK. BAE, the Defence and Space company manufacturer of the Hawk trainer (EADS), for example, was created aircraft sold to India, the Ultra in 2000 by merging French Light Howitzers that India has (Aerospatiale-Matra), German decided to acquire through the US (DASA) and Spanish (CASA) FMS route and a parther in the companies. Its missile branch was Eurofighter, has made several merged with BAE systems of the acquisitions in the US. UK and Finmeccanica of Italy to form the MBDA. The Eurofighter, For historical reasons India had the other contender for our close defence ties with the UK for MMRCA contract, is jointly some years after 1947, to the produced by Germany (DASA), extent that India’s Naval Chief Britain (BAE), Italy (Aeritalia) was a Britisher till April 1958, and Spain (CASA). Dassault, with Britishers also the Air Chief whose Rafale has been selected for till April 1954 and Army Chief till

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 7

January 1949. India’s Centurion The biggest consequence of Cold tanks, Vampires, Canberra, War politics was India’s turn Hunter and Gnat aircraft, and towards the Soviet Union Leander class frigates were of beginning in the 1960s for defence British origin. But Cold war supplies and licensed production of politics, British support for equipment, to the point that Pakistan and interference in the Russia accounts today for almost Kashmir issue in Pakistan’s 70% of India’s military hardware. favour, a reluctance to strengthen India miltarily against France, During the Indian Prime Pakistan, inevitably amongst all the Minister’s visit to France in led to a dilution of the European July 2009, President Sarkozy defence relationship. countries, has had reportedly promised to been seen as the Within Europe, open all doors for Indo-French most reliable France, whose defence cooperation. The partner. It has commitment to Indian decision in favour of studiously Pakistan was not of Rafale creates a favourable avoided the same order and ground for India to press for imposing which was not implementation of that sanctions on promise. For the time being, mentally hostage to India whether French attention is focussed on any colonial era because of finalizing the Rafale contract responsibilities India-Pakistan and other major steps in towards Pakistan or tensions or even defence cooperation, especially the sub-continent, was in the wake of in restricted technologies, will an alternative source. India’s nuclear probably have to wait till then. India acquired from tests in 1998, France, in the 1950s besides being itself, Ouragan, Mystere and Alize the first to establish a strategic aircraft, AMX tanks and air to partnership with India, indicating surface and anti-tank missiles. In clearly how it perceived India’s the 1960s India went in for role in a developing multipolar licensed production of French world. In the 1980s India signed Alouette helicopters, to which the agreement to procure Mirage were added Lama helicopters for aircraft from France. A $2.4 billion high-altitude operations in the deal was inked in July 2011 with 1970s. Dassault Aviation and Thales to

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 8 upgrade 51 of these Mirage the manufacturers of the aircraft. submarines, was blacklisted by India, which opened up space for The selection of Rafale for final France to enter the Indian negotiations for the MMRCA submarine market. contract, even if done strictly on the basis of technical and The bagging of the Scorpene commercial parameters, testifies contract was a political success for to the underlying confidence in the France, given that Germany had stability and security of defence greater experience and a more ties with France. established reputation in submarine building In December 2005 France, amongst all the and technology. India and France European countries, has been This success was signed the $3 seen as the most reliable not unconnected billion Scorpene partner. It has studiously with the goodwill deal, opening up avoided imposing sanctions on France had earned cooperation in an India whether because of by its area the French India-Pakistan tensions or accommodative were especially even in the wake of India’s position on India’s keen on, in part to nuclear tests in 1998, besides 1998 nuclear tests. obtain orders for being the first to establish a The delay in their state-owned strategic partnership with implementing the naval shipyard, the India, indicating clearly how it Scorpene project DCN, and, in part, perceived India’s role in a did cause some to attenuate developing multipolar world bickering about negative feelings in where the India about their considerable responsibility lay, but this has naval cooperation with Pakistan. been overcome.

The element of competition with Other projects with France include Germany, which had supplied 4 development of engines for the type 209 submarines to India ALH, the Kaveri engine for the between 1986 and 1994, was LCA and the Shakti engine for strong. Two of these German Dhruv. A major project involving submarines were built in Germany substantial technology transfer and two assembled in Mazagaon that has been negotiated with docks. In 1991, however, HDW, MBDA and awaits governmental

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 9 approval is joint development and Harrier aircraft detained in manufacture of the SR-SAM, the Britain after the imposition on short range surface to air missile. nuclear sanctions on India in A successful implementation of 1998. this project can open up more cooperation in the missile field, In July 2010, during Prime including, potentially, ballistic Minister Cameron’s visit India missile defence. India placed an order for an additional 57 Hawk aircraft worth During the Indian Prime $1.1 billion to be built by HAL, Minister’s visit to France in July with Indian complaints about 2009, President Sarkozy had delays in transfer of technology for reportedly promised to open all the earlier contract apparently doors for Indo-French defence resolved. Apart from defence sales, cooperation. The Indian decision India and Britain have held air in favour of Rafale creates a and naval exercises. favourable ground for India to press for implementation of that In the area of R&D, the tie-up promise. For the time being, between DRDO and the British French attention is focussed on DSTL (Defence Science and finalizing the Rafale contract and Technology Lab) is of potential other major steps in defence interest. Britain is offering cooperation, especially in participation to India in the Global restricted technologies, will Combat Ship (GCS), a flexible role probably have to wait till then. frigate. Britain, as we know, has a very large defence manufacturing In 1979, with India ordering base, the largest in Europe, with around 130 aircraft Anglo-French almost 2600 defence companies. Jaguar aircraft, with licence BAE systems, which have production and transfer of contracted to sell 140 Ultra Light technology as part of the package, Howitzers to India, is looking at a the British made a sizable come- role in artillery modernization in back into the Indian market. In India, for which it has tied up with February 2003 India ordered 66 the Mahindra Group to create a Hawk trainer jets from Britain Centre for Excellence for artillery worth $1.7 billion. India insisted projects. these planes carry no US parts because of the experience with its The German Connection

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 10

Germany’s Kurt tank was involved (military version), for which the in the manufacture of HAL’s lead country is Spain (but Marut jet fighter in the 1950s. Germany is a big shareholder of Since 1999 Germany, which is the EADS), came out lowest in price fifth largest exporter of defence but this tender too was cancelled items to India, has been providing in 2009 and has been re-tendered. parts for construction of ships and The competition is again with a submarines, such as fire control Russian aircraft, the IL76 with systems, sonar and navigation new engines, with uncertain systems, parts for planes, result. helicopters and tanks. Apart from supplying 4 Type 209 submarines, India’s defence relations with Italy it has supplied a large number of are relatively limited. Italy’s Dornier 228 aircraft. India and Alenia Aeronautica has 21% share Germany signed a new Defence in the Eurofighter, but this plane and Security agreement in 2006; lost out in the MMRCA race, as we an Indo-German High Defence know. Italy is providing Committee has been formed; visits consultancy to our Navy for our of service chiefs have been indigenous aircraft carrier. exchanged. In 2008, the first joint Finmeccanica of Italy is providing naval exercise was held off Kochi. its propulsion system. India is obtaining heavy weight torpedoes Of course the Germans have had for its submarines and frigates their set-backs in defence deals, from Italy. Finmeccanica’s having lost the submarine contract subsidiary Augusta Westland won to the French and failing to win the tender for supply of 12 AW101 the MMRCA contract for which helicopters to serve as executive they were the lead country for transport helicopters for the negotiations. Earlier, in December Indian VIPs. Augusta Westland 2007, they saw the cancellation of has established a joint venture the $ 500 million 197 helicopter with Tata Sons to assemble the 8 deal that had been won by seat AW 119 Ke light helicopter in Eurocopter. The result of the re- India. In 2003 India and Italy tender remains uncertain because renewed their 1994 MOU on of competition from the Russia’s defence cooperation. The India- Kamov helicopter. Similarly, in Italy Joint defence Committee has the first tender for 6 Refuelling met once, in January 2010. Aircraft, EADS’s Airbus 330

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 11

India has the dubious distinction new major defence contracts with of being the world’s largest Pakistan. importer of arms. This reflects extremely poorly on the state of Changing Attitudes indigenous defence manufacturing. That a large Today the situation has improved country like ours, with such huge for us. India has been liberated security challenges from China from nuclear sanctions and our and Pakistan combined western partners are, in principle, aggravated by US supportive of our and western India has the dubious membership of the arming of Pakistan distinction of being the world’s various technology and subjecting largest importer of arms. This regimes set up by India to technology reflects extremely poorly on them. This changed regimes, should the state of indigenous defence attitude towards have been impelled manufacturing. That a large India should to build domestic country like ours, with such progressively make capability on an huge security challenges from it easier for us to accelerated basis. China and Pakistan combined insist and obtain No country can aggravated by US and western meaningful follow a truly arming of Pakistan and technology independent policy subjecting India to technology transfers. The regimes, should have been without an policy on offsets impelled to build domestic independent will contribute to capability on an accelerated defence base of its building a larger basis. No country can follow a own. There can be defence truly independent policy no strategic manufacturing without an independent autonomy without base, but it would defence base of its own. an independent be on a sub- self-defence contractual basis capacity. We have not been able to and is not likely to lead to the kind leverage our large scale imports of transfers we want. For this a for obtaining the level of transfers change in our rules on FDI in the of technology needed by us. defence sector is required. The Fortunately, the allure of the present 26% ceiling needs to be Indian market has persuaded increased to 49% as a first step. countries like France and The private sector should be given Germany not to enter into any

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 12 all encouragement to enter the this sector and the advances the defence sector. US is making. India is caught between the need to limit the The entry of the US in the Indian inventory of equipment it has for defence market and its success in operational and maintenance bagging contracts worth $ 9 billion reasons, and the need to diversify in the last 5 to 6 years is so as not to create over- impressive. This shows that India dependence on any one country. does not think that the use of sanctions against India is a We are expected to import $200 serious threat anymore. billion worth of arms in the next Meanwhile, Pakistan’s relations 12 years. European countries will with the US and the West in certainly have a share of this. general have seriously They should, as European deteriorated. cooperation comes with much less intrusive demands and fewer US has now begun to focus on the chances of disruption of supplies Asia-Pacific region to potentially for extraneous reasons. And we counter a threat from rising have tested our cooperation with China. These developments are in European countries for long years our favour in terms of building up now. our defence potential. The technology transfer problems will Back to contents not be easy to deal with as the defence sector in western countries has been largely privatized and private companies cannot be compelled to part with proprietary technologies. Where governments are standing in the way through export controls that is where India needs to exert pressure.

European countries have to contend with Russia’s entrenched position in our defence sector, the impressive share Israel has carved out for itself- the second largest-in

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 13

Seize The Chance With Dhaka - Satish Chandra

he first India-Bangladesh reciprocated with several moves Joint Consultative such as the accord of a $1billion T Commission meeting held at credit, grant of duty free entry of the minister level on May 7 and at Bangladeshi goods to India the foreign secretary level on July barring a small negative list of 25 24 are a convenient inflexion point items, provision of transit to Nepal to assess the trend of ties between and Bhutan, etc. both countries. Regrettably, neither received the attention they Clearly India-Bangladesh deserved from the media that relations are in a transformative remains fixated on the sterile and phase, the template for which is unproductive India-Pakistan reflected in the Framework relationship. Agreement on Cooperation for Development signed by the prime With Sheikh Hasina’s assumption ministers of the two countries in of power in January 2009, her September 2011. The cooperative path-breaking visit to India in activities specified in this February 2010, and Manmohan agreement extend to virtually Singh’s visit to Bangladesh in every conceivable area ranging September 2011, India- from economic and commercial Bangladesh relations have been on field to security, from connectivity an upturn. This qualitative to management of water resources improvement in ties is largely and from energy to cultural been due to the Awami League exchanges. government’s readiness to meet India’s security concerns without In order to ensure the seeking any quid pro quo, its actualisation of the aforesaid secular outlook, and an openness cooperative activities a Joint to explore wide ranging Consultative Commission has cooperation with India. The latter been set up at foreign minister deeply appreciative of level to oversee their progression. Bangladesh’s positivity has This mechanism is backed by

*Satish Chandra - Distinguished Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 14 annual consultations at the June 2010-11 as compared to the foreign secretary level and level a year ago; an agreement has biannual consultations at the joint been concluded for purchase of 250 secretary level. MW of power by Bangladesh from India and purchase of another 250 In concrete terms the following are MW is likely. Intergrid some of the positive developments connectivity is expected to be in the last several months: established between the two conclusion of the protocol on the countries by 2013. A joint venture land boundary which by creating a for setting up a 1,350 MW thermal clearly demarcated and plant in Bangladesh has also been undisputed 4,096-km border will established, and; India has facilitate its policing and thereby assured Bangladesh that it would vastly enhance national security; not take any unilateral decision on grant of 24-hour access to the Himalayan segment of its river Bangladeshi nationals to linking project that may affect Dahagram and Angarpota Bangladesh, and that a sub-group enclaves through Tin Bigha; of the India-Bangladesh Joint opening of border haats on Rivers Commission would visit Bangladesh’s borders with Tripura Tipaimukh to go into all aspects of and Meghalaya; implementation of the hydroelectric project being set a Coordinated Border up there. Management Plan to control cross- border illegal activities and crimes India can be faulted for having and maintenance of peace and failed to deliver on two issues on harmony; under the $1 billion line which Bangladesh sets great store, of credit offered to Bangladesh by due to Mamata Banerjee’s India, the latter has already opposition, namely sharing of cleared contracts/ projects worth Teesta waters and implementation about $800 million. It has reduced of the protocol for settlement of the interest rate from 1.75 per the land boundary. On Teesta, the cent to 1 per cent and converted 20 agreement negotiated with per cent of the credit into a grant; Bangladesh is eminently India’s trade liberalisation reasonable and, in fact, had only measures for Bangladeshi goods been finalised after keeping West have already resulted in a 60 per Bengal in the loop. It envisages an cent increase in Bangladesh equitable sharing of the Teesta exports to India in the period July- waters at the point of entry into

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 15

Bangladesh after providing for Bangladeshi enclaves in India about 500 cusecs of water to inter with an area of 7,110 acres, and alia maintain the flow of the river. retention by each country of the The agreement set to be signed areas held by it in adverse during Manmohan Singh’s visit to possession. (2,777 acres by India Bangladesh in September and 2,267 by Bangladesh). 2011was postponed due to Implementation of the protocol Mamata’s last minute objections. apart from being in the mutual Since water is a highly emotive security interest and helping issue in Bangladesh our reneging promote a harmonious in this matter took the sheen of environment on the borders, will Manmohan Singh’s visit and enable the local residents for the exposed Sheikh Hasina to severe first time to enjoy full legal rights criticism at home. as citizens of India As the Bangladesh As the Bangladesh foreign or Bangladesh with foreign minister minister pointed out whilst proper civic pointed out whilst recently in India, relations facilities. It is no recently in India, between the two countries “will surprise, therefore, relations between take a huge hit” if India does that these people not deliver on Teesta. In the two countries practical terms, this has are pressing for “will take a huge induced Bangladesh to go slow urgent hit” if India does on several connectivity-related implementation of not deliver on issues that are of great the protocol. Teesta. In practical importance to us. Arguments to the terms, this has effect that as a induced Bangladesh to go slow on result of the protocol India would several connectivity-related issues lose more land or that it would that are of great importance to us. cause a major influx of people into the country are untenable. For one The Protocol on the Land thing, the amount of land and Boundary Agreement so people involved is paltry, meticulously negotiated, after particularly as compared to the taking into account the wishes of benefits accruing from the the affected peoples, will result in proposed settlement. Moreover, a fixed demarcated boundary, transfer of land is only notional as entail the exchange of 111 Indian neither country exercised effective enclaves in Bangladesh with an control on its enclaves in the other area of 17,160 acres and 51 country. Movement of people will

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 16 also be negligible as most will stay by us on these two issues will also where they are and assume the help in consolidating the Awami nationality of the country where League’s position that would they reside. obviously be in our interest, particularly given the inimical In order to fast track the bias of the BNP and Jamaat improvement in India-Bangladesh against India. ties and, indeed, make it irreversible, the government must Back to contents urgently override Mamata’s irrational objections to the settlement of the Teesta and boundary issues. Speedy delivery

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 17

The Emperor’s Frayed Clothes - PP Shukla

ne important chapter of the Importantly, it raised the Anna movement has ended; legitimate question: if these men O a new one is set to begin. and women were going to be Time, perhaps, to pause and take tempted by the piffling amounts stock of what went wrong, why the they swindled, how could they be promise of August fizzled by expected to resist the much bigger December 2011. The principal temptations that power would failure – for failure is what we are surely bring? seeing, no matter how it is dressed up – was caused by the fact that Anna was also in the habit of Team Anna, and Anna himself, calling the Government gaddars. displayed the very faults that they No question about it, this were fighting against. The irony is Government has done very nearly that they did not see this. And all it can to hurt the country’s when forced to confront it, they national interests, most notably on resorted to petulance or brazen national security matters. They denial. have left the country dangerously unprepared for any military Corruption was their main plank. challenge that may appear in the And yet, all the principal members near term. Yet, here was Prashant of the Team, and the most Bhushan saying we should be articulate ones for sure, were prepared to let go of Kashmir. And themselves exposed. What made again Anna set himself up as things worse was that each time arbiter and declared that he one or other individual was disagreed but Bhushan would not exposed, Anna condoned it. Not be made to pay for this egregious only did this expose the double betrayal of the country’s supreme standard that was being applied, interests. but it also showed the arrogance of Anna who seemed to set himself As if all this was not enough, there up as the arbiter of right and was the question of protection for wrong in these matters. the whistle-blower. Anna’s own

*PP Shukla – Joint Director, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 18 blogger, Parulekar, found that And they are never challenged by there was no protection for him if the media, where they make such the whistle were blown against tall claims. Here is what happened Anna. In a well-publicised case, to me, writing under a pseudonym. Parulekar was sacked for bringing I sent an email to Anna on his out the differences within Team feedback address asking for his Anna, and the unhealthy trends financial statements; within emerging within it. And again, minutes I got a reply, automated I Anna got away with it, because suspect, from a Suresh saying that the media were giving him an easy he would get back to me soon. time, for reasons of their own. That was in August 2011. Since then, I have sent two reminders, Anna’s own tendencies need to be but there has been no response. understood too. Firstly, the This is not to suggest that there is inconsistency that has been any financial impropriety in Anna remarked upon earlier, showed up personally, but that the tall claims again over the famous slapping of transparency are definitely incidents, one involving the self- hollow. As to whether their same Prashant Bhushan, the finances are indeed clean, we need other involving Agriculture details in order to be able to judge. Minister Sharad Pawar. The first Again, for accuracy, it should be incident attracted unbridled anger added that charges against Anna from Anna, and rightly so. But on have been probed and nothing has the other, he went so far as to incriminated him. imply that one slap was not enough for Pawar. Again, this is Then there is the issue of not in defence of Pawar – God nepotism. There is a father and knows he has enough to atone for. son team working as part of the But the inconsistency was glaring core committee. No doubt, Anna – and inexplicable. Further, when considers them very competent Anna was confronted with this lawyers, but was it really inconsistency and asked to necessary to find a father and son explain, he walked away from the team? If a Minister or a leader of interview. any political party were to do this – as indeed most are doing – do we The Team is also wont to make not criticise the nepotism implicit? grand claims that their finances And especially here we have are all there for the country to see. charges of soft corruption against

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 19 them, and of course, of being a difficult times ahead for the gaddar against one of them. country. The General Elections of 2014 have been likened by These facts provide as good an someone to the Fourth Battle of explanation as any for the collapse Panipat. Indeed, the future of our of the movement started in April country as an independent 2011, and received with such country, no less, is at stake. enthusiasm by the people of the Anna’s latest is that he is going to entire country. By the time of the plunge into electoral politics, Mumbai fiasco, it was clear that though he does not appear to have the movement was decided what dying down. Just . The General Elections of 2014 precise form this as well: the actual have been likened by someone will take. He must draft of the Anna to the Fourth Battle of weigh his options team for the Lokpal Panipat. Indeed, the future of very carefully, bill was really a our country as an independent realising that power grab. It is a country, no less, is at stake. Brand Anna is safe bet, borne out Anna’s latest is that he is frying and he does by many TV going to plunge into electoral not have the interviews of the politics, though he does not cushion to be able people who appear to have decided what to get away with gathered to support precise form this will take. He too many more Anna at Ram Lila must weigh his options very mistakes. As a grounds in August carefully, realising that Brand nationalist, he 2011, that most of Anna is frying and he does not must clear away all the people had not have the cushion to be able to the cobwebs in his get away with too many more read the grandly- mind, and the mistakes. titled “Jan” Lokpal persons, that led bill. The kind of him astray. The coming year-and- power that it gave to the Lokpal a-half will undoubtedly see very would have effectively ended the rough tactics, and the nationalist separation of powers that is so forces must be ready to confront important in a system like ours. them at all stages and at all levels.

Anna has now recognised that one Back to contents phase is over, and he has rid himself – so it seems – of Team Anna. Politically, there are very

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 20

Afghanistan And America’s New Silk Road Strategy - Vinod Anand

he security situation in integration with Afghanistan, it is Afghanistan continues to not devoid of geo-strategic T follow a declining trend ambitions and the question arises where not only have the NATO is America’s new Silk Road supply routes through Pakistan strategy is really new or is it old been attacked by the Taliban, the wine in a new bottle? What really logistics of going through are the objectives and significance Uzbekistan via the Northern of this strategy? Looking back Distribution Network have also through time it will be seen that come under Taliban attack. its Silk Road Strategy has Indeed, relations between the US witnessed three iterations. The and Pakistan have not improved initial phase commenced with the much; Pakistan’s stance on demise of the Soviet Union at the Haqqani group continues to sour end of 1991. The US and the West the US-Pakistan relationship. were the first off the blocks in Recently the US Congress voted making efforts to wean the for the Haqqani group to be nascent Central Asian nations designated as a terror group. It is away from Russian influence. At a well accepted fact that Pakistan that time Russia had also become continues to provide shelter to the weak and expected the West to Quetta Shura and other assorted help it out economically. militant groups despite its avowals to the contrary. America In 1992, the U.S passed a Freedom too has long been advocating a Support Act and additionally a regional solution to the Afghan Silk Road Strategy Act in 1999. puzzle and its ‘new Silk Road The main goals were to promote Strategy’ unveiled last year is democracy and human rights, claimed to be a part of the same. foster pro-West orientations in Though the strategy largely Central Asian nations, support stresses regional economic economic growth, and *Vinod Anand – Senior Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 21 development of transport and to promote greater economic communications. Kazakhstan was integration especially focused on viewed as an ‘energy behemoth’ connecting Central Asia and South and American companies sought to Asia. The main goal was to invest a great deal in its weaken the Russian control over hydrocarbon sector. These were the hydrocarbon sector in Central viewed by the US Administration Asian countries like Turkmenistan to be efforts in ‘strengthening the and Kazakhstan, through building independence of the Central Asian pipelines bypassing Russian states and forestalling Russian, territory. The Turkmenistan- Chinese and Iranian efforts to Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas subvert them’. The overall pipeline project was a objective was to integrate these manifestation of this concept, as countries into the European also the Nabucco gas pipeline and system. Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline projects (procuring oil from When the US and its allies Kazakhstan). The reasons for this attacked Afghanistan following were founded on the logic that the the September 2001 terrorist Central Asian nations need attacks to root out the Taliban, diversification of outlets for their Russia, China and the Central natural resources and other Asian states welcomed the products. Western powers’ intervention since it suited their short term To attenuate its Greater Central strategic interests of dealing with Asian strategy the U.S. State security threats arising from Department included Central Asia Afghanistan. The Central Asian in a revamped Bureau of South nations even offered bases to the and Central Asian Affairs in 2006. US and western troops. President Obama’s objectives were aimed at recasting relations with The next phase of America’s Silk Russia because of the complex geo- Road Strategy commenced in strategic situation prevailing in 2005-2006 when it promoted a Afghanistan and Central Asian, ‘Greater Central Asia Strategy’. which was a sub-set of the overall The term ‘Greater Central Asia’ global environment where included many areas and countries American power was considered to surrounding the Central Asian be on the decline. The Russians nations. Ostensibly, the aim was and the Central Asian countries

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 22 did help the US and its allies by insecure environment. However, allowing transit of logistics without security all the talk of through the Northern Distribution pipelines and investments in the Network (the existing mineral ores sector of Afghanistan infrastructure and road/rail by China, India and others, would network of which could become a remain a chimera. basis for another silk route), recasting of relations could not be This new strategy envisaged realized. encouraging “stronger economic ties through South and Central A new Silk Road Strategy Asia so that goods, capital, and heralded in July 211 by Hillary people can flow more easily across Clinton is therefore, not new; the borders.” A ‘web of economic and basic premises of the American transit connections that will bind strategy in Central Asia have not together a region too long torn undergone any change; if at all apart by conflict and division’ was there is some change, it is in the what was envisioned. priority of ends which it wants to achieve in Afghanistan. Top This form of regional cooperation priority is getting out of and economic integration was Afghanistan gracefully. given impetus in the Istanbul and Connecting Central with South Bonn Conferences on Afghanistan Asia through a network of in 2011. For instance, the Istanbul multimodal transport corridors Conference had recognized and networks that include road Afghanistan’s role as the land and rail networks, pipelines, bridge in the ‘Heart of Asia’, electricity grids and power connecting South Asia, Central transmission lines with Asia, Eurasia and the Middle Afghanistan as a hub, are some East, and reaffirmed their support measures for economic upliftment. for a secure, stable and peaceful Such a strategy is expected to future of Afghanistan. It also provide enough revenues to the endorsed Afghanistan’s Afghan Government to run its willingness and determination to affairs without being dependent on use its regional and historical foreign aid in the long run. Some position to do its part to promote American analysts propound that security and peaceful economic economic development and growth cooperation in the region. The is possible even in unstable and Conference had also stressed the

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 23 central role of the United Nations Further, Indian companies have in the international affairs, which decided to invest about US $10 was perhaps an oblique reference billion in the iron and steel sector to the proclivity of the US in of Afghanistan to exploit the adopting a unilateralist approach mineral resources of iron ore in international affairs and bypass deposits of Hajigak in the UN. Afghanistan. The issue of transportation of the minerals India, together with Russia and however remains. One project that Iran has been working on another may take off is construction of 900 version of Silk Road. They are KM railway line from Chabahar founder partners of the port to Bamiyan and Hagijak in International North South Afghanistan, which could be used Transport Corridor the main goal for transportation. At a wider which was to link not only Central level, India has been willing to Asia and Russia but also Europe. work with any power or a group of However, due to many bottlenecks countries which could help India and poor infrastructure in Iran gain access to Central Asia and many other geopolitical including Afghanistan. problems associated with Iran the full potential of this Corridor has The latest Silk Road strategy not been realized. Attempts by justifies the leadership role of the India to establish its own versions US as the biggest investor in the of the silk route have not been region. This would definitely be very successful. India had built a contested by China and Russia road from the Iran border town of because of the geopolitical Zaranj to Delaram in Afghanistan, ramifications of this strategy. linking up with the Garland Although the American highway of Afghanistan. This is intelligentsia talks about the one of the most important road- imperatives of involving Russia links in land-locked Afghanistan. and China in the actualisation of Zaranj is also linked by Iranian this strategy, on the ground very road network to Chabahar port. little has been done so far, except However, unstable conditions and for utilizing the NDN that goes the influence of the Taliban in the across Russia and the Central Southern areas of Afghanistan Asian states before connecting to have prevented this route from Afghanistan. The SCO regional being exploited fully. organization has not been given

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 24 much recognition and credibility for access to Afghanistan in the by the US and NATO forces. India reverse direction. Therefore, there would certainly be chary of any are many impediments in the negative connotations associated realization of the new U.S. Silk with this concept that may impact Road Strategy. its relations with countries like Russia or other powers in the An additional dimension to the region. Further, China in its own debate is the reality that India version of Silk Road strategy has and US have signed Strategic announced its plans for Partnership Agreements with construction of a gas pipeline from Afghanistan, to intensify their Turkmenistan to China via consultation, coordination and Afghanistan and Tajikistan, thus cooperation in promoting a stable, avoiding the turbulent Pashtun democratic, united, sovereign and held areas. In addition, China is prosperous Afghanistan. The doubling the capacity of the strategic Dialogue that took place existing Turkmenistan-China gas in June in Washington, as one pipeline to 61 billion cubic meters analyst observed, at which India per year. They also endeavour to had refrained from openly invest in oil exploration in endorsing the New Silk Road Afghanistan expected to generate architecture and the two sides US dollars 7 billion of revenues. discussed only the “vision” of an All these factors are likely to have enhanced regional connectivity. a negative impact on the The two countries have “reiterated construction of TAPI. that success in Afghanistan and regional and global security On the other hand, if the US is require elimination of safe havens able to influence Pakistan to grant and infrastructure for terrorism overland transit rights to India and violent extremism in then it would be a win-win Afghanistan and Pakistan”. situation for all involved, with Pakistan being one of the biggest In the final analysis, the new Silk gainers as it will earn huge transit Road Strategy can be seen as a revenues. Pakistan is part of the socio-economic approach combined TAPI initiative of building a gas with geo-political aspects to pipeline from Turkmenistan to extricate the US and its coalition India, but it has so far refrained allies from an unwinnable from acceding to India’s proposal situation in Afghanistan. Though

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 25 regional cooperation has been SCO from its formulations. It is mentioned as the panacea for the also compounded by the fact that ills of this region the US continues major players in Central Asia have to emphasize on its leadership role their own versions of the silk without purposefully working road/routes. towards a regional approach to the Afghan imbroglio. There are many Back to contents contradictions in the US approach to the region as its new concept excludes countries like Iran,

Russia and a regional group like

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 26

China’s Emerging War Concepts - Gurmeet Kanwal

he People’s Liberation Army basic doctrine of “active defence” has launched a rapid (jiji fangyu) that seeks to conduct T modernisation drive to “people’s war under modern prepare for 21st century warfare conditions” (better understood as and to enable China to project “local wars under hi-tech military power well away from its conditions” – gaojishu tiaojian xia land borders and territorial de jubu zhanzheng). The ‘active waters. The new type of war that defence’ doctrine calls for is now being envisaged by the PLA integrated, deep strikes – a represents a revolutionary change concentration of superior from the traditional Chinese firepower that is to be utilised to concept of People’s War against an destroy the opponent’s retaliatory invading enemy seeking to occupy capabilities through pre-emptive and destroy the PRC. People’s War strikes employing long-range was expected to be an all-out or artillery, short-range ballistic total war fought primarily by missiles (SRBMs) and precision ground forces supported by a guided munitions. David motivated population that was Shambaugh, a well known China fully mobilised for a long-drawn scholar has written: “Rather than struggle. The concept that was conducting a ‘people’s war’ (a evolved by Mao was characterised strategy to ‘lure the enemy in by protracted, large-scale land deep’ into one’s own territory), the warfare where the aim was to PLA doctrine of ‘active defence’ exploit China’s strategic depth by calls for forward positioning, luring the enemy deep inside, frontier defence, engagement of extending his lines of the enemy at or over the border communications and logistics and and potential engagement in eventually destroying him through conflict beyond China’s immediate prolonged attrition. periphery… this doctrine is essentially pro-active and seeks to Underpinning the new take the battle into enemy professionalism of the PLA is the territory.” Beijing has defined the *Gurmeet Kanwal - Visiting Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 27 following five likely limited war China’s strength to attack the core scenarios: military conflict with of enemy defence. neighbouring countries in a limited region; military conflict on Major General Shen Xuezai, territorial waters; undeclared air former head of the Military attack by enemy countries; Systems Department of the territorial defence in a limited Academy of Military Sciences military operation; and, punitive (AMS), has written: “Only by offensive with a minor incursion controlling the entire battlespace into a neighbouring country. and striking at key points so as to paralyse the enemy’s entire The new doctrine and the strategy operational system and immobilize and tactics associated with it have its forces, will it be possible to win been influenced by the lessons of a war.” Commenting on the PLA’s Gulf War I in 1991 and the Iraq evolving doctrine, Major Mark A. War of 2003, both of which have Stokes has stated: “This strategic been extensively studied by attack doctrine, one aspect of the Chinese scholars. The doctrine PLA’s ‘limited war under high- requires the creation of a tech conditions’ (jubu zhanzheng capability to project force across zai gaojishu tiaojian xia)… China’s borders through rapid continues to adhere to the deployment, conventional SRBMs traditional strategy of ‘pitting the and cruise missiles, information inferior against the superior’ (yilie warfare, electronic warfare, shengyou), which recognises precision-guided munitions, night technological inferiority for an fighting capabilities and other indefinite period of time.” Much advanced military technologies. the same point was made in the The building of these capabilities, Pentagon’s 2007 annual report on in turn, drives procurement and the Military Power of China: defence production policies, the “Once hostilities have begun, command and control structures according to the PLA text, Science and training. According to a US of Campaigns (Zhanyixue) (2000), DoD report to Congress, victory is ‘the essence of (active defence) is to be achieved through ”strategic to take the initiative and strikes” by gaining the initiative annihilate the enemy… While by striking first, achieving victory strategically the guideline is active with one strike and concentrating defence, (in military campaigns) the emphasis is placed on taking

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 28 the initiative in active offence. to achieve this aim through Only in this way can the strategic attacks against air bases and ports objective of active defence be and other elements of the logistics realised” (emphasis added). chain and against information systems so as to disrupt command China also follows ‘anti-access’ and control during build-up. While strategies to deny access to the anti-access strategies are unlikely adversary to his planned launch to succeed in preventing conflict pads in an endeavour to prevent completely, these could impose build-up of forces for a war against considerable delay and caution China. Planning for anti-access during build-up. strategies flows from the China also follows ‘anti-access’ The PLA’s new apprehension that strategies to deny access to the doctrine is also if superior, well- adversary to his planned more assertive equipped forces launch pads in an endeavour than previously (read the US and to prevent build-up of forces thought and is not its allies) are for a war against China. bound by any allowed to arrive in Planning for anti-access restrictions to the war zone with strategies flows from the confine and limit the force levels and apprehension that if superior, future conflict to in the time frame well-equipped forces (read the within China’s planned by them, US and its allies) are allowed national they are bound to to arrive in the war zone with boundaries. China prevail. According the force levels and in the time claims that it has to a RAND paper of frame planned by them, they only peaceful 2007, the Chinese are bound to prevail. intentions and does calculate that “by not believe in mounting a credible threat to do launching aggression and that it so, they will be able to deter the fights wars only to defend its United States from intervening in sovereignty and territorial the first place, or at least limit the integrity. According to China’s scale and scope of that White Papers on national defence, intervention.” The PLA’s aim is active defence is a defensive clearly to deter a conflict or at military strategy. However, it is least delay the opponent’s clear from Chinese writings that preparation till the PLA is better the major characteristics of active prepared to react. The PLA seeks defence are distinctly offensive in

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 29 nature. The PLA publication The in the military field.” Chinese Study of Campaigns (Zhanyixue) scholars emphasise the high-tech (2000) highlights this offensive feature of modern wars. In their approach: “While strategically the view, “the aim, range, tools of war guideline is active defence, in and time and space of military campaigns, though, the engagements are all limited.” emphasis is placed on taking the Compared with China’s initiative in ‘active offense’. Only historically reactive stance of in this way the strategic objectives luring the enemy in deep and of “active defence” can be destroying him through strategic realised.” defence, the present doctrine is essentially pro-active and seeks to The doctrine of high-tech local take the battle into enemy wars under conditions of territory. It also strives to achieve informationisation is still evolving. surprise in a pro-active manner In the absence of active that is demonstrated by new operational experience, the PLA “quick-strike” tactics. The aim is may take another decade or so to to catch the enemy unprepared in fully implement all the ingredients order to inflict substantial damage of the new doctrine. According to on strategic targets and disrupt Chinese scholars writing in the logistics to gain psychological Science of Military Strategy, the ascendancy. While the land switch to fighting high-tech local frontier is expected to continue to wars is a “historic leap in the generate some local tensions, the development of current wars”; it is Central Military Commission the “reflection of the historic logic (CMC) has identified space and of war development at (the) the oceans as the new areas where present time”; it is “an important future conflict might take place. linkage in the chain of war development”; and, it is the Back to contents reflection of change from industrial-era production mode to information-era production mode

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 30

Illegal Migration As A Threat To India’s Internal Security - Dr. N. Manoharan

mong other things, one of Bangladeshis have been moving the major aspects that have out of their country due to A come out of the recent economic, political and social communal violence in Bodo areas reasons. There is a serious crisis of of Assam is illegal migration. ‘lebensraum’ (living space) in According to the Group of Bangladesh due to alarming Ministers Report on National population growth rate without Security, illegal migration has proportionate availability of land. generated a host of destabilizing This is going to worsen further in political, social, economic, ethnic the future with the impact of and communal tensions. climate change and natural Politically, the Bangladeshi disasters. As per 2011 estimates, migrants are in a position to the population density of influence the results of the Bangladesh is 964 per sq km, one elections in a large number of of the highest in the world. Only constituencies in the North East Singapore and small city-states (about 32% of the constituencies in like Bahrain or the Vatican have Assam). Economically, increased higher figures.2 And, this is pressure on land, resulting in expected to increase further in the depletion of forest wealth, coming years. undercutting of wages of unskilled jobs, forcible occupation of As observed by the Group of Government land by the migrants Minister’s Report, illegal and a host of other such issues, immigration from Bangladesh has generate a ripple effect in the led to demographic upheaval and entire North East. 1 generated serious communal, political, social and economic Illegal migration mainly takes tensions and conflicts in several place in the eastern and north- areas of the northeast of India. eastern parts of the country from The most affected states are West neighbouring Bangladesh. Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya,

*Dr. N.Manoharan - Senior Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 31

Nagaland,Bihar, and Tripura, fundamentalism may provide the although migrants “have spread to driving force for this demand. In far off states like Tamil Nadu, this context, it is pertinent that Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan Bangladesh has long discarded and Delhi.” 3 Although the exact secularism and has chosen to figure is not known, it is estimated become an Islamic State. Loss of that there are about 15-20 million Lower Assam will sever the entire Bangladeshis staying illegally in land mass of the North East, from India. 4 The illegal migration of the rest of India and the rich Bangladeshis in fact triggered the natural resources of that region agitation in Assam by All Assam will be lost to the Nation.” Students Union (AASU) in 1979- 85. Despite the Assam Accord of This applies to other states of the 1985 5, the issue remains north-east, especially those that unresolved to this day and the share borders with Bangladesh “silent demographic invasion” like Tripura and Meghalaya. In persists. Due to vote-bank politics, Tripura, the migrants have the motivation to block illegal reduced the locals to a minority migrants from Bangladesh is leading to rise of insurgent groups absent. The gravity and scope of like All Tripura Tiger Force threats arising out of illegal (ATTF). Bangladeshi migrants migration was highlighted by the have even spread to more distant then Governor of Assam, Lt Gen S. states in the region like Arunachal K. Sinha in his report. Inter alia, Pradesh, and other parts of India he points out, and are seen as potential threats similar to those faced by other “This silent and invidious North Eastern States. Some of demographic invasion of Assam these migrants give shelter to may result in the loss of the geo- Bangladeshi militant groups like strategically vital districts of HuJI (B) and are very amenable to Lower Assam. The influx of these ISI activities. The Supreme Court, illegal migrants is turning these in its 114-page judgment, in July districts into a Muslim majority 2005 observed that “The presence region. It will then only be a of such a large number of illegal matter of time when a demand for migrants from Bangladesh, which their merger with Bangladesh runs into millions, is in fact an may be made. The rapid growth of ‘aggression’ on the State of Assam international Islamic and has also contributed

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 32 significantly in causing serious the border, has been doing its job ‘internal disturbances’ in the creditably, the force levels are not shape of insurgency of alarming sufficient to monitor the long and proportion making the life of the difficult border. Apart from raising people of Assam wholly insecure new battalions, it is important not and the panic generated thereby to divert the BSF for duties other has created a fear psychosis.”7 than border management. They also have to be equipped legally to Despite the enormity of the issue, handle situations at borders that the response has been grossly include not only illegal migration, inadequate. The entire stretch of but also smuggling, drug- 4,096-km India- trafficking, Bangladesh border The Supreme Court, in its 114- counterfeits, and is heavily page judgment, in July 2005 observed that “The presence of militant populated, making such a large number of illegal movements. monitoring migrants from Bangladesh, extremely difficult. which runs into millions, is in Apart from Fencing has to a fact an ‘aggression’ on the creating physical large extent been State of Assam and has also hurdles, it is also acting as an contributed significantly in important to causing serious ‘internal obstacle, but only disturbances’ in the shape of discourage illegal 2,760.12 km have insurgency of alarming migrants through been fenced so far.8 proportion making the life of suitable deterrent The remaining the people of Assam wholly legislation. Till stretch should be insecure and the panic recently, illegal fenced at the generated thereby has created migrants in Assam a fear psychosis.”7 earliest, were handled by complemented with Illegal Migration floodlights and hi-tech (Determination by Tribunals) Act, surveillance devices. Most 1983, that was held as importantly, the existing border unconstitutional by the Supreme has to be demarcated at the Court in 2005 as it was “coming to earliest to make it free of the advantage of such illegal ‘enclaves’ and ‘adverse possession’; migrants as any proceedings much of the activities take place in initiated against them almost these undemarcated areas. entirely ends in their favour, Although the Border Security enables them to have a document Force (BSF), in charge of policing having official sanctity to the

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 33 effect that they are not illegal 5. Full text of the Agreement is migrants.”9 An exclusive available at refugee/migration law is long http://aasc.nic.in/Acts%20an pending. It is also vital to issue d%20Rules%20(GOA)/Imple multi-purpose identity cards, at mentation%20of%20Assam% least to curb further illegal 20Accord%20Deptt/Assam%2 migration. At some pockets of 0Accord.pdf Interestingly, Indo-Bangladesh border, the issue there is a separate ‘The of temporary work permits can be Implementation of Assam considered so that Bangladeshis Accord Department’ in the can come, work and go back. At Government of Assam that the macro level, India should help acts as “a Nodal Department in the overall economic for implementation of the development and prosperity of Assam Accord and to monitor Bangladesh so that its citizens the implementation of need not to go elsewhere for their various clauses of the Assam livelihood. Accord by different Departments of the State Endnotes Government.” For details see http://assamgovt.nic.in/depar 1. See Group of Ministers tments/accord_dept.asp. Report on Reforming the 6. See Chapter II, Para 24 of National Security System, the Report. D. O. No. Chapter II, p. 6, para 2.35. GSAG.3/98, dated 08 2. For full details, see November 1998, full text of Bangladesh Bureau of the report is available at Statistics, Ministry of http://www.satp.org/satporgt Planning, Government of the p/countries/india/states/assa People’s Republic of m/documents/papers/illegal_ Bangladesh, “Population and migration_in_assam.htm, Housing Census 2011,” p. 8, accessed on 01 August 2012. para 2.4. 7. Sarbananda Sonowal v. 3. Group of Ministers Report on Union of India (UOI) and Reforming the National Another, No. 131 of 2000, Security System, Para 2.35 India: Supreme Court, 12 of the. July 2005, para no. 39, 4. Ibid, p. 60, para 5.8 (h). available at http://www.unhcr.org/refworl

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 34

d/docid/46b1c2eb2.html , 9. “IMDT Act is the biggest accessed 4 August 2012. barrier to deportation, says 8. Ministry of Home Affairs, Supreme Court,” The Hindu, Government of India, Annual 14 July 2005. Report 2011-12, pp. 46-47.

Back to contents

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 35

India’s Political Class Lacks Ideology - Dr. M.N. Buch

he Preamble to the Indian between the Executive, Constitution delineates a Legislature and the Judiciary T democratic form of closely follows the Westminster government by constituting India model and, therefore, India is into a sovereign socialist secular considered to be a representative democratic republic. Part V of the parliamentary democracy in Constitution trifurcates the State contrast to that of the United into three equal constituents, the States of America, which is a Executive, Legislature and presidential form of democracy. In Judiciary. The composition of the the Westminster model Legislature, the Parliament of government, power is exercised by India, is formed by members the Prime Minister and the elected by adult suffrage, in the Council of Ministers who case of the House of the People, collectively enjoy the confidence of the Lok Sabha, and indirectly, by the House, and who advise the the State Legislatures in the case President on how the executive of the Council of States or Rajya powers of the Union will be Sabha. exercised. If the House loses confidence in the government, the The entire Parliament in the Lok Prime Minister and the Council of Sabha is divided into territorial Ministers must resign and the constituencies and each elected government would fall. In a member becomes the presidential form of democracy, representative of the people the President is directly elected by residing in their constituency, and the people and neither he nor his are registered in the electoral roll cabinet is responsible to the House of that constituency. Each Member of Representatives, the lower of Parliament then acts in the house in the American Congress or House on behalf of all his Parliament. In fact, in the United constituents, and it is for this States a cabinet member cannot be reason India is a representative a member of either House of democracy. The division of powers Congress. There, the balance of Dr. M.N. Buch – Visiting Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 36 power is established by the and the first decrees was to Legislature through its functions abolish Parliament and establish of legislation and approving the an absolute dictatorship. budget, but by itself whereas the Congress cannot either dismiss This example has been citied to the cabinet, nor remove the demonstrate that in a President except through the representative democracy a Nazi process of impeachment. India, Germany scenario is not beyond which follows the Westminster the realm of possibility. For model, legislation itself is initiated example, under Article 75, of the by government and because the Indian constitution the President Council of Ministers are can appoint a person as Prime collectively responsible to Minister even if he does not enjoy Parliament, the Executive and the the confidence of the House. Legislature come together in the Further Article 85 of the matter of legislative business. Constitution allows for the Since the government enjoys a President to summon each House majority in the House, the Prime of Parliament and the only Minister can and does influence restriction is that six months the proceedings in Parliament, should not intervene between one whether it is an issues of budget, session and the previous session. legislation or debate. To that In other words, after swearing in extent the Executive embodied by the Prime Minister, the President the Prime Minister can override need not summon Parliament for a the checks and balances between period of five months and twenty- the Legislature and Executive, nine days. In this period the which are a features of the President would have the power to American Constitution. It should legislate by ordinance under be remembered that the infamous Article 123, except in the matter of Nazi rule was initiated, facilitated the Appropriation Act under and executed through a Article 114. This is because under democratic process by Hitler as Article 113 (2) all estimates Chancellor persuading Parliament relating to expenditure from the to approve the Enabling Act and Consolidated Fund of India must further, succeeding in making first be assented to by the Lok President Hindenburg sign the Act Sabha, and only when a demand into law. This enabled Hitler to for a grant on any subject is rule Germany for a year by decree; approved by the Lok Sabha, can it

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 37 be included in the Appropriation group or groups only if they Bill. This then is the principal subscribe to and enjoy a common check on the ability of the ideology, a common programme, a President and Prime Minister in common platform and common conspiracy to that could convert views so that they act cohesively. India into a dictatorship because if Such groups are what we call there is no grant and no political parties. Section 29 A of Appropriation Act, money cannot the Representation of People Act be withdrawn from the 1951 provides for registration by Consolidated Fund. Therefore, the the Election Commission of government would come to a associations and bodies as political standstill. Another check, is of the parties. Section 29 A (1) reads, Judiciary which would strike down “Any association or body of any attempt to bypass the individual citizens of India calling Constitution or convert India from itself a political party and a democracy to a dictatorship. The intending to avail itself of the Indian Constitution, therefore, provisions of this Part shall make does keep India safe from an application to the Election conversion to a dictatorship, Commission for its registration as notwithstanding an attempt made a political party for the purposes of by Indira Gandhi in 1975 to this Act”. In other words, the Act superimpose her absolute rule on governing elections recognises the India. existence of political parties and provides for their registration, A representative democracy regulation and superintendence. It cannot function if, for example, the is the political parties which Lok Sabha consists exclusively of approach the people to vote for 543 members, each independent their candidates on account of and are not part of a group or ideology and programmes of the party. To form a government, party as enunciated in the party’s these members would have to election manifesto and the people come together in a sufficiently have the freedom to exercise their large enough group to form a choice, not only on account of the majority in the House so that suitability of the candidate proper collectively this group can but also because the candidate constitute a government which represents the party whose will enjoy the confidence of the ideology appeals to the electorate. House. 543 persons can form a

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 38

In India for many years after political class function. The independence, the Congress party, Chambers Twenty-first Century whose ideology was rooted in Dictionary defines ideology as: Gandhian principles, ruled the “The body of ideas and principles country both at the Centre and in which form a basis for a social, the States. The opposition was economic or political system: the weak, but the prevailing opinions, principles and way of parliamentary culture was such thinking, characteristic of a that it was respected and the particular person, group of people opinions expressed by it in or nation”. We cannot have a Parliament were considered political system in which there are seriously without neither ideas nor the majority party We cannot have a political principles and if steamrolling them. system in which there are that happens we Men of the stature neither ideas nor principles cannot have a of Ram Manohar and if that happens we cannot social or economic Lohia and Shyama have a social or economic system. A political Prasad Mukherjee system. A political party bereft party bereft of carried a weight in of ideology is no party. ideology is no our politics far in Unfortunately as politics party. excess of the stands today there is no party Unfortunately as numbers they which has an identifiable politics stands represented in ideology and I state this in the today there is no Parliament. context of the Communist party which has an Because the party Party of India or Communist identifiable in power had an Party of India (Marxist) also. ideology and I state ideological base this in the context and a programme in which the of the Communist Party of India nation came first, the democracy or Communist Party of India was healthy, politics relatively (Marxist) also. The Preamble to honest and politicians definitely the Constitution states that nationalistic. The Gandhian ideology of a party must take into principles of austerity governed account the fact that India is and our politicians, whose life style, will be a republic, its form of needs and attitudes were simple. government will be democratic, it will be secular in nature and it In politics ideology forms a basic will be socialist in that it will construct around which the promote both equality and equity.

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 39

India would be a republic with experience on this matter when social, economic and political Margaret Thatcher was the justice for all and there will be Conservative party’s Prime equality of status and of Minister. She made an ideological opportunity. The socialist ideal statement when she came to would ensure that the right to power that she would dismantle equality before law enshrined in the socialist state in the process Article 14; prohibition of would destroy the instruments of discrimination on grounds of socialism. She then proceeded to religion, race, caste, sex or place of fulfill her ideological objectives birth enshrined in Article 15; and even when she faced opposition the equality of opportunity in from the manner in which she matters of public employment dealt with the Arthur Scargil led enshrined in Article 16; would coal miners strike, the issue of poll guide every government, tax, the reduction of milk in the regardless of party affiliations. school mid-day meal schemes, etc., Socialism in the Indian context she remained unperturbed by her also means that the directive to personal unpopularity. Prime the state enshrined in Article 38 to Minister Thatcher went ahead establish a social order for the with her programme to an extent promotion of the welfare of the where the political philosophy of people in which justice, social, the country changed. economic and political, shall inform all the institutions of the Till 1967 the Congress Party ruled national life, will determine every India and by and large the old policy of government. The question political class inherited from the is whether any of these ideals freedom movement continued to forms part of the ideology of any uphold Indian traditions. In 1967 political party in India, and everything changed where whether in fact, any party has an members of the Haryana and ideology. Madhya Pradesh State Legislatures were bribed to defect Ideology cannot be a matter of the from the ruling party and form a moment. Ideology is the core of separate group which caused the any political party and that core ruling party to be ousted, and new can evolve, but it be twisted and united front government to be turned as a means of expediency. formed for the first time and It is worth looking at the British power was thus purchased.

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 40

Suddenly, legislators found that to facilitate this new ideology and they could command a price and if officers were made to surrender to this price was paid the mandate of threat and coercion. The honest the electorate could be undone and officers who stood their ground new political combinations could were identified and isolated, and be formed to constitute the the corrupt and the pliant brought government. Of course the new to positions of power. The reason government itself would be for the existence of the All India unstable, based as Services, it was on bribery No democracy can function on independence, and, therefore, the basis of the bureaucracy fearlessness in having alone, however efficient, giving advice and illegitimately won honest and forward looking it impartiality, power, it had to might be. The power to integrity and continue bribing in legislate vests in the fairness in order to retain it. Legislature and the power to implementing the That was the end of take policy decisions vests in orders of any form of the Council of Ministers which government, was principled consists of elected members of attacked at the government in the Legislature. At different very root and India and it levels of government, including virtually destroyed. brought into urban and rural local Thus a nexus was government, the same position existence a new built up between prevails and ultimately it is political class the Services and the elected representatives whose origin was the political class who, in a democracy, take corruption. In order and the binding policy decisions based on their to buy power one force was party ideology, their declared needed money and corruption. programme and the mandate unless the State of the people. was subverted, No democracy can money could not be function on the had. Therefore, the basis of the bureaucracy alone, instrumentalities of the State had however efficient, honest and to be made totally pliant so that it forward looking it might be. The would not stand in the way of power to legislate vests in the illegal money making. A Legislature and the power to take systematic attack was launched on policy decisions vests in the the Civil Services, was conducted Council of Ministers which

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 41 consists of elected members of the country are not issues of Legislature. At different levels of importance. What is important is government, including urban and how to remain in power. The rural local government, the same dictionary meaning of ‘govern’ is, position prevails and ultimately it “to control and direct the affairs of is the elected representatives who, a country, state or organisation” in a democracy, take policy Power, on the other hand, is decisions based on their party defined as “control and influence ideology, their declared exercised over others”. If power is programme and the mandate of used to govern then it is desirable. the people. The mandate of a Civil If, however, power is used for self- Servant’s is to advise, to point out aggrandisement, for pelf, for precedents and the law and to nepotism or for creating the means bring to the notice of the decision whereby power can be re- makers the various courses of purchased, it is not desirable. The action available at their disposal current Indian political class and the consequences of each. profess the use of power through Once a decision is taken the Civil the latter means. Servant must faithfully implement the decision, though in doing so he It is time that political parties must be totally fair, evenhanded restore the trust of the people in and impartial. In other words, the terms of its ideology and policy decision will be political, but programmes. That has to start by its implementation will be totally eschewing every form of caste and impartial. These roles become religion based politics. Today completely blurred when all every political party calculates its decision making becomes a chances of success according to the function of expediency, and it is mathematics of caste and religion. dictated by either the bribe which The Congress must also have a is received or the fear that is specific ideological base from instilled by the possibility of losing which programmes should develop power if a particular pressure and these should be presented to group is not pleased. Such a the people for their judgment. The political class no longer cares for Left Front, where leadership the duties mandated to it by the questions are not based on Constitution because to it service heredity, must also now decide of the nation, the welfare of the whether it wants to become a people, the development of the clone of China, a country ruled by

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 42 the Communist Party or whether political parties will have to it wants to function under Indian include coalescing of parties on realities in which a State ideological lines so that the Government cannot to acquire blackmailing pressure of small 38,000 acres of fertile agricultural groups representing either land as the Left Front tried to do individual interests or regional in Nandigram for allotment to an interests do not take over and industrialist. The BJP on its part overwhelm any future coalition. In must decide whether it wants to other words, the parties must try develop in a secular environment and absorb smaller groups so that in which RSS is no longer its eventually there is a centrist principal mentor, because the party, a right of centre party and a dilemma before the BJP is that left of centre party where in the unless it widens its base it cannot limits of extremes on both sides be accepted in the South, and in become circumscribed. It is this the East and if it were to widen its which will lead to more base, the RSS may break away. meaningful coalitions and, Even if BJP were to work therefore, better government. according to Hindutva philosophy, Ultimately, the political class has which could further widen the to draw itself back from the brink religious divide and polarise of corruption and go back to what minority votes, there is no the Constitution envisaged for guarantee that there would be a them -- principled politics whose counter-Hindu polarisation and objective is to promote the welfare more Hindu votes for the BJP, of the people and wealth of the because the Hindu vote is already nation. Lastly, as things stand divided on the lines of caste. It today, by 2014 we may reach a fails to win because a large stage where no party, including number of Hindus vote against it. Congress and BJP, may get more It is for the party to decide than a hundred seats. This would whether it can garner more Hindu lead to even more fragmented votes through an aggressive coalitions and there would be pursuit of a Hindutva programme virtually no government. or whether a more genuinely secular approach will get it more Back to contents Hindu votes. Introspection by the

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 43

A Purposeless Nation

The four Ds are in short supply not because they are in demand, but because Indians have become incapable of generating them - V Anantha Nageswara hen leading business in the last four days visiting representatives say that W India has fallen well ancient temples in the Tanjore- short of expectations generated in Kumbakonam - Mayiladuthurai 1991 and that the post-1991 buzz belt in Tamil Nadu known for for India has fully evaporated, their architectural splendour. The they are not saying anything new. temples that I visited date from It has been apparent to many around 1148 BC to 1012 AD. The perceptive observers for quite oil paintings and sculptures pack some time. The task of so much of creativity and artistic dismantling the India-shining expression that even non-believers story that began in 2004 is now can lose themselves for days and almost fully accomplished. Of months exploring and marvelling course, it is not just the at their beauty, even if the divine government or politicians that tales behind them leave them deserve the credit. We have a unmoved. The tales will reveal pride of place, too. When ministers their deep spiritual meanings for Kapil Sibal and P. Chidambaram those who care to reflect on them. talk of zero loss to the nation on Now, the sculptures and pillars account of spectrum or coal carry messages of love from boys allocations, they are not being to their girlfriends with mobile stupid. They have astutely numbers. Otherwise, they serve as recognized that they are dealing receptacles for the so-called with an apathetic nation—a devotees to deposit the sacred ash nation whose apathy makes its and kumkum they receive from aspiration to be a super-power the priests. The well in Gangai appear utterly unrealistic. Konda Cholapuram (a UNESCO Yours truly logged about 1,000km Heritage site) is murky and filled with filthy water. Not long ago,

*V Anantha Nageswara - Visiting Scholar, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 44 one could spot a coin clearly even ignorance of priorities. Instant when the water was 50 feet deep. gratification at its worst.

It is a temple where the sunlight We comfortably ride three or four that falls on the holy bull Nandi is on a motorbike with the right reflected on the Shiv Linga that is hand on the bar and the left located 200 ft away, illuminating cradling a mobile phone on the it. shoulder. We do not dim the headlights in consideration for the The well in Gangai Konda vehicles coming at us. We have no Cholapuram hesitation in riding on the wrong (a Unesco Heritage site) is murky side of the road because we need to and reach a tea-stall or filled with filthy find a bush to relieve water. Photo: ourselves. We yield to Wikimedia Commons none even when we face off each other on Our behaviour on the a narrow bridge road is not merely a through which only question of etiquette. one vehicle can pass. It captures most We stake our egos on things that are petty and trivial holding us back and issues. are going to hold us back. We are happy to The same pettiness get off from a moving makes us construct bus at a traffic island, mosques, madrasas and churches be sandwiched between two lorries in granite and marble in the belching copious quantities of villages and in the three temple black smoke, while trying to cross towns mentioned above. Imagine the road to the other side. It is not how cheap it would be for a Hindu our lack of concern for collective temple to steal the limelight and but the disregard for personal be a source of distraction near the safety that leaves one stumped. It Velankanni St. Mary shrine or is almost as if we tell the rest of near the Nagore dargah. Think the world that our safety is their about it. problem. It is a life of blissful

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 45

It is a nation that has no pride in plus, that is a statistical the past, does not identify inevitability. But such exceptions priorities for the present and are merely balm for aching hearts. hence no sense of purpose about Nothing more. the future. It is a nation with no sense of history. Such a nation It is tempting to say that it is a may still achieve spurts of case of Yatha Raja Tatha Praja (if economic growth, but it is unlikely the king is immoral, so will be the to realize its potential ever. subjects). Perhaps, it is largely true and, unfortunately, India has The obsessive not had a chance in pursuit of instant The obsessive pursuit of a long time to see gratification has instant gratification has this statement in resulted in the resulted in the flight of action positively. flight of decency, decency, decorum, discipline The general decorum, discipline and dignity from India’s public election in 2014 and dignity from space. Anything that is scarce could give India an India’s public becomes more valuable. opportunity to see space. Anything Therefore, there will be a whether the ruler that is scarce natural scramble to possess can make a becomes more them. Those who possess and difference to the valuable. display scarce commodities are nature of the ruled Therefore, there rich. But not in India. These or if nothing would will be a natural Ds are in short supply not sway Indians from scramble to possess because they are increasingly their death wish them. Those who in demand, but because for which its rulers possess and display Indians have become incapable and elites have, so scarce commodities of generating them. far, been willing are rich. But not in executioners. India. These Ds are in short supply not because they are V. Anantha Nageswaran is a increasingly in demand, but Visiting Scholar at VIF and an because Indians have become Independent financial consultant incapable of generating them. based in Singapore. This article also appeared in Mint magazine. It is not impossible to find exceptions to this narrative. In a Back to contents nation with a population of billion-

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 46

Has the Political Class Failed Us? - A. Surya Prakash

he end of `Operation Jantar threat that was posed to their Mantar’ by Team Anna corrupt ways. The UPA of course T without any tangible gains is leading from the front and has vis-à-vis the fight against been able to stop the anti- corruption and the indications corruption movement dead in its from within government that the tracks. Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bill, 2011 may not come up for debate until One year ago, as the Anna Hazare the Winter Session of Parliament Movement picked up, the UPA – should come as a major government introduced the Lok disappointment for all citizens Pal Bill in the Lok Sabha and who believe in the pursuit of repeatedly claimed that it was peaceful and democratic solutions committed to the passage of this for major problems confronting the law. Other members of the country. political class made similar noises and swore that they too were keen With Anna Hazare virtually on having an independent throwing his hands up and ombudsman to probe cases of signalling the failure of the tried corruption. However, within and tested Satyagraha route, Parliament there was an every section of the political class, unwritten agreement among all and this includes the ruling parties that they should not go United Progressive Alliance beyond rendering lip service to the (UPA), the National Democratic anti-corruption movement. All Alliance (NDA), the Third Front parties also believed that by and the still nebulous Fourth dragging the issue, they could tire Front, must be laughing all the out the crusaders. This plan way to their respective vote banks. appears to have worked. Twelve This is a moment of triumph for months hence, the anti-corruption politicians as a whole because they crusade has become a victim of have successfully beaten back, at middle class ennui and the much- least for the moment, the biggest talked about bill has virtually

*A. Suya Prakash - Senior Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 47 gone into cold storage. Lokpal and the Lokayuktas in the states. Once the committee’s Caught in a maze of corruption, report was tabled, the government the UPA government was not keen withdrew the Bill it had on having an independent Lokpal. introduced in August and came up But it was not alone. It got some with a new Bill – The Lokpal and overt and covert backing from Lokayuktas Bill, 2011. virtually the entire political class. The government introduced the After much debate, which drew Lokpal Bill on August 4, 2011 in nation-wide attention, this Bill the Lok Sabha and immediately was passed by the Lok Sabha and referred it to the Standing the government raised the Committee head by Mr.Abhishek expectations of the people by Manu Singhvi. This gave the pretending that it would see the government a much-needed legislation through in the Rajya breather and also an excuse. It Sabha as well. However, the asked Team Anna and others to government’s real intention – to advance their arguments before stall the passage of this legislation the committee. The Singhvi – became clear when the Bill came Committee recommended that the up for discussion in the Upper Lokpal must have constitutional House on the last day of the status and Parliament must take a Winter Session in December, 2011. call on whether to bring the Prime The Congress Party’s floor Minister within the purview of the managers cleverly ensured that Lokpal. It said group A and group MPs belonging to many small and B employees must be brought regional parties raised objections within the purview of the Lokpal, and obstructed the debate. but the Chief Vigilance Thereafter, as the debate dragged Commissioner should have on, the party took advantage of the jurisdiction over group C and D commotion in the House and staff. The committee wanted MPs mischievously ensured the to be kept out of the Lokpal’s adjournment of the House sine die, purview in so far as their vote, even though MPs wanted the speech and conduct in Parliament debate to be concluded. With the was concerned. The judiciary was abrupt adjournment of the House, also to be outside the Lokpal’s the curtain came down on the jurisdiction. It suggested a single Winter Session of Parliament, law for establishment of the

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 48 thereby giving the government yet Bills and lapse when the present another breather. Lok Sabha is dissolved in May, 2014 or earlier. However, when the Budget Session of Parliament opened in In the year gone by, the UPA February this year, the UPA government has slipped further resumed its subterfuge. It down on the credibility meter and promised to complete the strangely, it is taking the legislative process in the Upper Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) House but sprang a surprise on along with it. As the main parliamentarians and the nation opposition party, the BJP ought to as a whole last May, when it have been the moral policeman announced the Bill and the standard- was being referred In the year gone by, the UPA bearer for clean to yet another government has slipped governance, but it committee – a further down on the credibility is even more Select Committee meter and strangely, it is irrelevant today of the Rajya Sabha. taking the Bharatiya Janata than it was a year Sadly, the BJP Party (BJP) along with it. As ago. The Congress became a party to the main opposition party, the and the BJP are the government’s BJP ought to have been the now seen as two dilatory tactics. moral policeman and the sides of the same This committee has standard-bearer for clean coin. The people been given time till governance, but it is even more feel that they are the end of the irrelevant today than it was a merely engaged in Monsoon Session in year ago. a mock fight and September to they are tired of submit its report. So, even as listening to the same old rhetoric. Anna Hazare and Co have ended Film maker Shekhar Kapur yet another indefinite fast in order correctly summed it up when he to live to fight another day, there said the debate is not about the are indications that the Bill will failure of the UPA but about the not come up for discussion until failure of the political system the Winter Session of Parliament itself. this year. Going by the prevailing mood in the political class, do not “India does not need change of be surprised if this Bill too suffers government but change in political the fate of all previous Lokpal system. 65 years of current system

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 49 has created huge divide between Back to contents the people and governance”, he said in one of his recent tweets.

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 50

The ISI’s Psychological Operations - Dr. Prem Mahadevan

he government has stated Pakistani counterparts were that recent distress merely out to embarrass India, or T migrations of northeastern if the scare campaign had a deeper Indians were triggered by purpose. It is possible that the electronic messages originating Inter Services Intelligence, if it from Pakistan. Investigators have was involved, has no strategic end- found that the first hints of game regarding present tensions pogrom-style killings appeared on between Bangladeshi immigrants Pakistani internet forums, and and Bodo tribesmen. The agency’s rapidly spread to India as part of a covert operations cells might just coordinated psyops offensive. The be taking opportunistic advantage modus operandi was vaguely of the situation in Assam. familiar: doctored images and Provided Indian authorities vitriolic texts flooded maintain public order, the matter telecommunications networks, might rest there. However, past gaining credibility before law experience of ISI psyops suggests enforcement agencies could react. that the agency rarely desists from The apparent purpose was to stir coordinating its propaganda up public anger in an already offensives with paramilitary polarized setting and prepare the action. Its favourite tactic is to political mood for an outbreak of combine persistent low-visibility communal violence. During 1989, subversion with sporadic high- Pakistan had adopted similar visibility attacks, conducted on a methods when it broadcast deniable basis using local assets or television footage of anti- expendable mercenaries. communist revolts in Eastern Europe and urged Kashmiri A Suggestive Pattern Muslims to likewise rise up against New Delhi. On at least three occasions, the ISI is thought to have used What intelligence agencies now psychological and paramilitary need to assess is whether their operations in a synergistic role.

* Dr. Prem Mahadevan - Senior Research Associate, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 51

The first was in late 1983, when officials posted in Western capitals masked turban-wearing gunmen funded Sikh separatist hijacked buses in Punjab and publications and organized selectively killed Hindu publicity events. These passengers. Since the attacks propaganda initiatives were occurred amidst worsening Hindu- matched operationally by linking Sikh relations, most commentators terrorist attack cells to ISI assumed that they were carried networks. One occasion in 1992 out by Sikh separatist militants. saw two ISI operatives being However, eyewitness accounts cast killed in the company of a Sikh doubt on this theory: the killers’ terrorist leader. Although language and demeanour had Islamabad initially tried to deny indicated a military background. their Pakistani nationality, it Furthermore, local intelligence relented after protests from their was unable to identify them, families. suggesting that they were not based in Punjab itself. As such The second case of (suspected) ISI attacks continued into early 1984, subversion being used to arguments were advanced that the camouflage (largely proven) masked gunmen could have been paramilitary action occurred in Pakistani Punjabi mercenaries, Mumbai in 1993. A spate of rioting working as agent provocateurs in plunged Hindu-Muslim relations a ‘false-flag’ campaign. in the city into a downward spiral. With innocent Muslims having Irrespective of whether the suffered disproportionately, some hijackers were Indian or of their co-religionists within the Pakistani, what is unquestionable criminal underworld plotted is that their actions were intended retaliation. Led by Dawood to deepen Hindu-Sikh tensions. Ibrahim, they organized eleven Furthermore, it is now generally synchronized blasts across the city acknowledged that Islamabad did in March 1993, targeting Hindu- intervene covertly in Indian majority areas. The explosive Punjab. Throughout the 1980s and material used was military-grade, ‘90s, radio broadcasts expressed suggesting a state supplier. A support for Sikh separatism. detonator recovered by Indian Pakistani scholars wrote about a investigators from one of the blast possible second partition of India sites was traced to Pakistan army along Hindu-Sikh lines. ISI ordnance stores.

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 52

What is interesting is that the pre- shipping fleet, thus gaining blast riots had occurred in two leverage over him. The men who distinct waves. The first, in actually planted the bombs were December 1992, was spontaneous; trained in explosive-handling in a symptom of country-wide Pakistan, but their passports religious polarization following the contained no stamps by Pakistani Babri Masjid demolition. The immigration authorities. second wave, in January 1993, Surmising on this, one reputed appeared to have been planned: it American commentator has noted began with knife fights in the that such free movement could Mumbai docks, which expanded only have been facilitated by into pitched battles across the city. powerful elements within Investigators noted Pakistani state that the docks were The men who actually planted institutions. 1 The a stronghold of the bombs were trained in ISI is the logical Dawood Ibrahim, explosive-handling in suspect. whose smuggling Pakistan, but their passports operations were contained no stamps by The third case is based there. Pakistani immigration Mumbai 2008. It is Although a causal authorities. Surmising on this, now known that relationship was one reputed American the ISI was aware difficult to prove, commentator has noted that of Lashkar-e- such free movement could only circumstantial Toiba’s plan to have been facilitated by evidence indicated attack Mumbai. powerful elements within that Ibrahim’s men Testimony from Pakistani state institutions. 1 had deliberately Zabiuddin Ansari, The ISI is the logical suspect. triggered the one of the planners, second round of rioting. If true, even states that the agency this hypothesis would suggest that provided the weapons and the January 1993 riots were a ammunition used in the attack classic intelligence provocation and that two ISI officers operation. personally supervised its implementation from a control Ibrahim himself is believed by this room in time, to have come under ISI Karachi. The Indian prime influence. Defectors from his group minister and national security later revealed that the Pakistani advisor have long asserted that government had impounded his the Mumbai 26/11 attacks bore

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 53 signs of state support. Even if the possibility of Pakistani Pakistani government as a whole involvement. The killings in was not involved, highly Mumbai were projected as an influential elements within it outcome of domestic instability appear to have been. within India. Seen from hindsight, such discourse (later discredited This brings the context of the by theconfession of AjmalKasab, attacks into sharp focus. During one of the gunmen) seems to fit the fall of 2008, alarm had been the thesis that the ISI masks its growing in India about a possible paramilitary activities with terrorist threat from Hindu calibrated extremists. These propaganda concerns were In this regard, it is important offensives. exploited by to note that the initial reaction members of the from Islamabad was to reject The Logic of political class, to any possibility of Pakistani Pakistani Psyops deflect attention involvement. The killings in Mumbai were projected as an from the Reacting to claims outcome of domestic instability made over the government’s within India. Seen from failure in hindsight, such discourse Assam crisis, preventing jihadist (later discredited by Pakistani officials attacks. The theconfession of AjmalKasab, have accused Mumbai gunmen one of the gunmen) seems to fit Indian authorities the thesis that the ISI masks played to this of evading its paramilitary activities with responsibility. discourse, forging calibrated propaganda identity cards offensives. They insist that under Hindu India address its names and wearing saffron own domestic problems rather wristbands. The attack planners than attribute culpability to had calculated that once the Pakistan. Such demands would be gunmen were killed by Indian credible, if they were not preceded police, these ‘clues’ would mislead by episodes such as Kargil ’99 and the subsequent investigation and Mumbai ‘08. On both occasions, media commentary. Pakistani diplomats had initially ridiculed charges of cross-border In this regard, it is important to involvement and accused India of note that the initial reaction from spoiling bilateral relations. Islamabad was to reject any However, once the immediate

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 54 crisis had subsided and which invariably glosses over international attention had drifted past jihadist transgressions elsewhere, Islamabad found it against India. expedient to quietly admit to such 3. Lastly, spoiler actions involvement. It did so in order to cement the Pakistan army’s claim ownership over a spoiling domestic image as protector action that had disrupted bilateral of the people against a relations and driven up the price vengeful Indian government of further engagement. and public. Certain actions such as Mumbai ‘08 are also Therein lies the real ‘core’ issue meant to serve narrower that bedevils India-Pakistan objectives, such as deflecting relations. It makes sense for the domestic Islamist militancy Pakistani security establishment on to a foreign (and thus to occasionally bring bilateral ‘legitimate’) target. rapprochement to a shuddering halt. There are three reasons for In each of the cases outlined this obstructionist stance: above, Pakistani officials loudly proclaimed that terrorist attacks 1. Spoiler actions derail in India resulted from domestic grassroots-level peace tensions. This consistency in initiatives and stop them emphasizing India’s internal from assuming an fissures is revealing: it implies independent forward that at the governmental level, momentum, which Pakistan views India as an Islamabad might later not be artificial state, riddled by identity- able to regulate. Civil based conflicts. Such views, if they activism for friendly bilateral actually do dominate official ties is thereby held in check. Pakistani thinking, would 2. These actions also drive a represent a colonial inheritance political wedge between from the British Raj. During the India and its main security 1940s, Raj officials had derided partners. They compel secular Indian nationalism as a countries such as the US and doomed experiment. They UK to abandon New Delhi predicted that, post-independent, and instead assume a India would fragment under the neutral refereeing posture on centrifugal influence of its own Indo-Pak tensions – one diversity. Building a common

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 55 polity from a multi-ethnic, multi- What Indian security forces now lingual and multi-religious have to prepare for is the more population was thought to lie serious possibility that this might beyond the capabilities of the not be the end of it. As might have country’s native leaders. So far, occurred previously in Punjab, this prediction has been proven there is a chance that ISI wrong, but continuing societal rifts operatives shall create a provide hope to some ISI officers communal flashpoint through that it might yet come true. agent provocateurs. Reports suggest that the Pakistani agency Thus, while Pakistani writers is keen to erase international claim that Indian memories of the elites have never What Indian security forces Mumbai ’08 attack. accepted the logic now have to prepare for is the It hopes to achieve of Partition, the more serious possibility that this by facilitating same can be said of this might not be the end of it. a major act of Pakistani elites. If As might have occurred domestic terrorism India refuses to previously in Punjab, there is a in India, using only endorse the chance that ISI operatives local assets. principle of shall create a communal Islamabad could religious exclusion flashpoint through agent then argue, with all that underwrote provocateurs. Reports suggest apparent Pakistan’s that the Pakistani agency is reasonableness, formation, keen to erase international that even if the Pakistan has also memories of the Mumbai ’08 Mumbai attack had refused to attack. featured Pakistani recognize the involvement, India legitimacy of the still needs to put its own affairs in secular nationalism that keeps order. Towards this, ISI officials India together. The ISI, if it have already met with leaders of orchestrated the hate campaign the Communist Party of India that prompted thousands of (Maoist) in Dubai, to discuss northeastern Indians to flee to possible collaboration. The their home states, was merely Maoists have allegedly asked for acting in conformity with military-grade explosive, and the Pakistani ideological dogma. ISI is believed to have asked in turn that the Maoists use these explosives to attack economic

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 56 targets, such as oil refineries, so as Further ‘Rogue’ Operations Likely to attain maximum strategic impact. Following the Mumbai ’08 attack, the then ISI chief told US officials Even if the ISI were to support the that rogue officers from the agency Maoists however, the main focus might have been involved. This of its psyops would still be on same argument had previously identity-based conflicts rather served Pakistan well in 1993, than ideology-based ones. The when ISI involvement with agency has plenty of experience in Dawood Ibrahim had attracted exploiting ethnic and linguistic American queries. Basically, the fault lines to its own advantage. ‘rogue operative’ thesis capitalizes One example would be the East on the tendency of Western Pakistan civil war (1971), when listeners to equate such operatives the ISI organized Bihari Muslims with ‘enemies of the state’. into vigilante groups to fight Western analysts assume that if Bengali separatists. Another individuals within the ISI support would be its covert support for terrorist attacks, Pakistani Mohajir militancy in Karachi authorities would seek to identify during the 1980s – a tactic and pursue them. Instead, India’s intended to contain Sindhi and experience has so far belied this Pashtun nationalism. However, paradigm – although some ISI the agency has little insight into paramilitary activities might have ultra-leftist discourse, having been carried out without express never confronted a communist sanction from above, these have insurgency. Its ability to relate to not resulted in punitive measures the peasant and tribal revolution against the officials involved. in central India is likely to be Rather, the immediate quite limited. Moreover, class consequence tends to be a struggle is not an issue that ISI reshuffling of agency postings, to strategists would want to throw off Indian and Western publicize, as it might backfire on counterintelligence efforts against Pakistan, given the country’s own the ‘rogues’. quasi-feudal social structure. For these reasons, it would make There is a strong possibility that sense if the agency focused on ‘rogues’ within the ISI will plan Hindu-Muslim/Bodo-Bengali and assist a major act of terrorism tensions. in India, using local proxies as the

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 57 triggermen. Such a scenario may Dr. Prem Mahadevan is working not occur in the short term (i.e. the with Centre for Security Studies, next three months), since the Zurich renewed India-Pakistan dialogue has not yet made much progress. Endnotes A major improvement in atmospherics however, such as a 1. Jessica Stern, ‘Pakistan's summit between civilian Jihad Culture’, Foreign politicians of the two countries, Affairs, November/December would likely set attack 2000, accessed online at preparations afoot. By a spoiler http://www.hks.harvard.edu/ action, the Pakistan army and ISI fs/jstern/pakistan.htm, on 20 would want to emphasize their August 2012. veto rights over any political process that bypasses them. Given the ongoing instability in India, caused by poor governance and communal polarization, they are Back to contents likely to have many opportunities for combining psychological and paramilitary operations. The Bodo-Bangladeshi conflict shall probably be just one among these.

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 58

Seminar On Perspectives From China On Af-Pak Situation And Counter Terrorism

the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and one day conference on the Af- then later on by the intervention of the Pak Situation and Counter U.S. Further, the domestic/internal A Terrorism was organised by the situation in both Afghanistan and VIF with visiting Scholar from China Pakistan remains unstable for various th on 29 August 2012. Scholars and reasons. Domestic weakness and years experts from China gave their of strife in Afghanistan have also perspectives on the evolving situation in enabled foreign powers to intervene in Af-Pak region and their approach to Afghanistan. In the Chinese counter-terrorism. Professor Li Jian, perspective, America Vice President of China cannot leave West Normal Afghanistan without University, Sichuan finishing the task they spoke on ‘SCO and Af- came for under the Pak Security Security Council Environment’ while Dr. mandate they need to Zhang Jiadong, give more aid and Assisstant Director of support for stabilising Center for American Afghanistan. In addition, Studies, Fudan the neighbours should University spoke on China’s approach also play a more active role. to counter-terrorism. In the second session Dr. Shen Xiaochen discussed The Chinese are also apprehensive of ‘America's New Silk Road Strategy and terrorist groups operating in Xingjian Future of Af-Pak Region’ and Dr. Liu and their links with groups in Pakistan Jiawei of Sichuan University briefed the and Afghanistan. They believe that audience on ‘China’s Policy Options in improving economic conditions, for Post-Withdrawal Era’. instance in Xinjiang and Tibet, would create a better environment for stability. It indeed was useful to hear They were also of the view that SCO perspectives from China on the Af-Pak provides a good platform for situation and counter terrorism. The cooperating on anti-terrorism efforts. road approach of the Chinese scholars Further, China has given developmental was that the current situation had arisen aid to Afghanistan though not at the because of the earlier intervention by same level as that of India.

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 59

The Chinese scholars observed that have common interests in Afghanistan India can play an important role in and the Indian and Chinese companies Afghanistan; India has created a good could cooperate in development of image in Afghanistan and India, Iran Afghanistan. There are many areas and Russia could play a useful role in where India and China can cooperate to Afghanistan. There was also a need to contribute towards stability in take collective action especially by the Afghanistan. neighbours. As for America’s New Silk Road Strategy, China is not a There was a very interactive question stakeholder in this strategy and and answer session after each session therefore views this concept with with the VIF faculty being represented ‘diffidence’. However, there is a need by the Director, Mr. Ajit Doval, Jt. for India and China to cooperate in Director, Ambassador PP Shukla and development of Afghanistan’s natural Lt. Gen. (retd) Ravi Sawhney and other resources and infrastructure. China has eminent experts from the strategic and been accused by the West for not taking security community. responsibility in Afghanistan but this image can be improved by China taking Report Prepared by Sanjay Kumar part in reconstruction of Afghanistan. China has embarked on Western Area development plan and the new Eurasian Continental Bridge Project where Back to contents Afghanistan becomes an important hub.

Afghanistan links Middle-East and South Asia to Central Asia and China and vice versa. Both India and China

VIVEK : Issues and Options September – 2012 Issue: I No: IX 60