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A Simulation Model of the Devils Hole Pupfish Population Using Monthly Length-Frequency Distributions Maria Dzul Iowa State University, [email protected]

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A Simulation Model of the Devils Hole Pupfish Population Using Monthly Length-Frequency Distributions Maria Dzul Iowa State University, Dzul@Iastate.Edu Statistics Publications Statistics 2013 A simulation model of the Devils Hole pupfish population using monthly length-frequency distributions Maria Dzul Iowa State University, [email protected] Stephen J. Dinsmore Iowa State University, [email protected] Michael C. Quist United States Geological Survey D. Bailey Gaines National Park Service Kevin Patrick Wilson NFoatliolonwal thiParsk aSerndvice additional works at: http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/stat_las_pubs Part of the Aquaculture and Fisheries Commons, Population Biology Commons, and the See next page for additional authors Statistics and Probability Commons The ompc lete bibliographic information for this item can be found at http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/ stat_las_pubs/64. For information on how to cite this item, please visit http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/ howtocite.html. This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Statistics at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Statistics Publications by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A simulation model of the Devils Hole pupfish population using monthly length-frequency distributions Abstract The eD vils Hole pupfish, Cyprinodon diabolis, is a federally-endangered fish that is endemic to Devils Hole, a discontiguous part of Death Valley National Park in Nye County, Nevada. Due to its status, Devils Hole pupfish monitoring must be non-obtrusive and thereby exclude techniques that require handling fish. Due to a recent decline in pupfish abundance, Devils Hole pupfish managers have expressed a need for a model that describes population dynamics. This population model would be used to identify vulnerable life history stage(s) and inform management actions. We constructed a set of individualbased simulation models designed to explore effects of population processes and evaluate assumptions. We developed a baseline model, whose output best resembled both observed length-frequency data and predicted intraannual abundance patterns. We then ran simulations with 5 % increases in egg-larval, juvenile, and adult survival rates to better understand Devils Hole pupfish life history, thereby helping identify vulnerable life history stages that should become the target of management actions. Simulation models with temporally constant adult, juvenile, and egg-larval survival rates were able to reproduce observed length-frequency distributions and predicted intra- annual population patterns. In particular, models with monthly adult and juvenile survival rates of 80 % and an egg-larval survival rate of 4.7 % replicated patterns in observed data. Population growth was most affected by 5 % increases in egg-larval survival, whereas adult and juvenile survival rates had similar but lesser effects on population growth. Outputs from the model were used to assess factors suspected of influencing Devils Hole pupfish population decline. Keywords Conservation, Devils Hole, Elasticity analysis, Endangered species, Population dynamics, Stereovideo Disciplines Aquaculture and Fisheries | Ecology and Evolutionary Biology | Population Biology | Statistics and Probability Comments This is an article from Population Ecology 55 (2013) 325, doi:10.1007/s10144-013-0361-x. Posted with permission. Rights Works produced by employees of the U.S. Government as part of their official duties are not copyrighted within the U.S. The onc tent of this document is not copyrighted. Authors Maria Dzul, Stephen J. Dinsmore, Michael C. Quist, D. Bailey Gaines, Kevin Patrick Wilson, Michael Roy Bower, and Philip M. Dixon This article is available at Iowa State University Digital Repository: http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/stat_las_pubs/64 Popul Ecol (2013) 55:325–341 DOI 10.1007/s10144-013-0361-x ORIGINAL ARTICLE A simulation model of the Devils Hole pupfish population using monthly length-frequency distributions Maria Christina Dzul • Stephen James Dinsmore • Michael Carl Quist • Daniel Bailey Gaines • Kevin Patrick Wilson • Michael Roy Bower • Philip Michael Dixon Received: 9 April 2012 / Accepted: 19 November 2012 / Published online: 28 February 2013 Ó The Society of Population Ecology and Springer Japan 2013 Abstract The Devils Hole pupfish, Cyprinodon diabolis, based simulation models designed to explore effects of is a federally-endangered fish that is endemic to Devils population processes and evaluate assumptions. We Hole, a discontiguous part of Death Valley National Park in developed a baseline model, whose output best resembled Nye County, Nevada. Due to its status, Devils Hole pupfish both observed length-frequency data and predicted intra- monitoring must be non-obtrusive and thereby exclude annual abundance patterns. We then ran simulations with techniques that require handling fish. Due to a recent 5 % increases in egg-larval, juvenile, and adult survival decline in pupfish abundance, Devils Hole pupfish man- rates to better understand Devils Hole pupfish life history, agers have expressed a need for a model that describes thereby helping identify vulnerable life history stages that population dynamics. This population model would be should become the target of management actions. Simu- used to identify vulnerable life history stage(s) and inform lation models with temporally constant adult, juvenile, and management actions. We constructed a set of individual- egg-larval survival rates were able to reproduce observed length-frequency distributions and predicted intra-annual population patterns. In particular, models with monthly M. C. Dzul (&) Á S. J. Dinsmore Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, adult and juvenile survival rates of 80 % and an egg-larval Iowa State University, 339 Science II, Ames, IA 50011, USA survival rate of 4.7 % replicated patterns in observed data. e-mail: [email protected] Population growth was most affected by 5 % increases in S. J. Dinsmore egg-larval survival, whereas adult and juvenile survival e-mail: [email protected] rates had similar but lesser effects on population growth. Outputs from the model were used to assess factors sus- M. C. Quist U.S. Geological Survey, Idaho Cooperative Fish and Wildlife pected of influencing Devils Hole pupfish population Research Unit, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA decline. e-mail: [email protected] Keywords Conservation Á Devils Hole Á D. B. Gaines Á K. P. Wilson Death Valley National Park, National Park Service, Pahrump, Elasticity analysis Á Endangered species Á NV, USA Population dynamics Á Stereovideo e-mail: [email protected] K. P. Wilson e-mail: [email protected] Introduction M. R. Bower Bighorn National Forest, U.S. Forest Service, Sheridan, Conservation efforts directed by vague biological data WY, USA about targeted species are often unlikely to be successful e-mail: [email protected] (Tear et al. 1995; Foin et al. 1998; Boersma et al. 2001; Clark et al. 2002; Gerber and Hatch 2002). Understanding P. M. Dixon Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA population processes is therefore vital for conservation e-mail: [email protected] efforts, as basic knowledge about population dynamics can 123 326 Popul Ecol (2013) 55:325–341 help biologists focus monitoring efforts on evaluating (i.e., which survival parameters had the greatest effects on factors likely related to population decline (Campbell et al. population growth) we compared discrete population 2002). The Devils Hole pupfish, Cyprinodon diabolis,isa growth rates (k) among simulations with varying larval, federally-endangered species endemic to Devils Hole, Nye juvenile, and adult survival rates. Lastly, we assessed County, Nevada. Due to their small population size and overwinter survival of larval fish by comparing simulation limited geographic range, there is a general consensus models with and without winter recruitment. Importantly, among managers that all sampling of Devils Hole pupfish while a density-dependent model would likely provide a be non-obtrusive. The Devils Hole pupfish population realistic representation of the Devils Hole pupfish popula- experienced a dramatic decline in abundance from the mid- tion, we had little information about the effect of density on 1990s to mid-2000s. Consequently, updated information population growth. Furthermore, the current size of the about Devils Hole pupfish population ecology is needed to Devils Hole pupfish population is very low compared to its evaluate management alternatives. size before 1990 (Graves 2004); thus the population is Statistical models describing population dynamics are likely well below its carrying capacity. If true, then using a extensively used in wildlife and fisheries management to density-independent model is appropriate for the purposes identify vulnerable life stages of imperiled populations of this study. (Crouse et al. 1987; Doak et al. 1994; Crooks et al. 1998), evaluate mechanisms suspected of influencing species’ declines (Lamberson et al. 1992; Fahrig 1997; Huxel 1999; Methods Doubledee et al. 2003), and assess the influence of man- agement alternatives on population dynamics (Heppell Study site et al. 1994). Developing a population model for the Devils Hole pupfish would help increase understanding of Devils Devils Hole is a small limestone cavern located in a dis- Hole pupfish population dynamics and provide a tool to contiguous portion of Death Valley National Park adjacent evaluate alternative management strategies. The population to Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge, Nevada
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