NO. 7 FEBRUARY 2020 Introduction
Taiwan’s Threatened Democracy Stays on Course Fear of China’s Dictatorship Pushes Taiwan’s President to a Landslide Victory Frédéric Krumbein
Presidential and parliamentary elections were held in Taiwan on 11 January 2020. The island is de facto a sovereign state and a consolidated democracy but is claimed by the People’s Republic of China. Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, who has been in power since 2016, and her Democratic Progress Party (DPP) won both elections by a clear majority. The DPP stresses Taiwan’s de facto independence. The largest opposi- tion party, Kuomintang (KMT), stands for closer economic cooperation with mainland China. The election campaign was marked by increasing pressure from Beijing on the island and by protests in Hong Kong. Hong Kong serves as a warning to the Taiwanese about what could happen if Taiwan becomes too close to the mainland or even merges with it: The island state could lose its democracy and freedom.
In the presidential elections in January, In the parliamentary elections, the dif- Tsai received 57.1 percent of the vote, Han ference in votes between the DPP and the Kuo-yu from the KMT 38.6 percent, and KMT was less marked: 6.4 percentage points. the third candidate, James Soong from the The seats are allocated through a mixture People First Party, 4.3 percent. In parlia- of majority and proportional representation. ment, the DPP has lost 7 seats, but with 61 The reasons for the smaller difference in Members of Parliament, it retains a comfort- votes are, firstly, that some KMT supporters able majority of the total 113 seats. The KMT did not vote for the unpopular Han, but did won 38 seats; smaller parties and independ- vote for their party in the parliamentary elec- ent candidates won the remaining 14 seats. tions; secondly, most small parties did not The clear election victory for Tsai can be nominate their own presidential candidates, explained on the one hand by the fact that as there is no run-off vote. This favors a con- the KMT sent Han Kuo-yu, a weak presiden- centration of votes on just a few candidates. tial candidate, into the race. On the other In the parliamentary elections, however, a hand, the electorate trusts the incumbent part of the electorate then opted for smaller president, rather than the KMT, to protect parties and independent candidates. Taiwan’s democracy and freedom from the People’s Republic.
KMT: Strong Start, Weak Finish internal party primaries, she was able to assert herself as a candidate. After being Han has experienced a rapid rise as a poli- defeated, Lai called for support for the tician during the last one and a half years. president and was nominated by her as a In November 2018 he was elected mayor candidate for the office of vice president. of Kaohsiung, the largest city in southern In addition, the “green camp” was able Taiwan, traditionally a stronghold of the to mobilize its electorate, including the ruling DPP. His unconventional and people- younger generation. Voter turnout in the oriented manner, his image as a political presidential elections was 74.9 percent, outsider, and his promise to make Kaoh- significantly higher than four years ago, siung rich led many people to vote for him. when it was 66.3 percent. Almost as fast as his meteoric rise was his With the “Taiwan People’s Party,” a fall – burning out after coming into con- third force – the “white” force – has tact with political and economic reality. finally entered the political stage alongside Han is a classic populist who had promised the “blue” and “green” forces. Founded by a lot, but in the end was unable to keep the mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen-je, the party his promises for Kaohsiung, instead “dis- wants to govern unideologically, pragmati- tinguishing himself” through the chaotic cally, and efficiently – it sees itself as a management of the city. In addition, there force between the “blue” and “green” camps. were private scandals, for example an issue The party will have only five seats in the concerning a luxury apartment, that dam- newly elected parliament; however, in the aged his image as a “man of the people.” 19 constituencies in which it has been Shortly after he won the KMT party prima- elected, it has achieved more than 5 percent ries in July 2019, his decline in the polls of the vote almost everywhere – in one- began. third of the constituencies even more than Internal conflicts within the KMT and 10 percent. It is widely believed that Ko will the “blue camp” of KMT and smaller parties run for president in 2024. His lack of ideol- close to it contributed to his poor election ogy and his deliberately open political posi- results. One of the veterans of Taiwanese tions, for example on relations with main- politics, 77-year-old James Soong, ran for land China, are both his strength and his president for the fourth time, supported weakness. by Terry Gou, founder of Apple supplier Foxconn and one of the richest men on the island. Soong also stands for a stronger Today Hong Kong, rapprochement with mainland China and Tomorrow Taiwan? belongs to the “blue camp.” Gou himself was defeated by Han in the KMT prelimi- Apart from the “candidate question,” the nary election polls and then resigned from second main reason for Tsai’s election vic- the KMT. He and Soong disputed Han’s tory is the fact that Taiwan’s relationship competence to govern Taiwan. Even parts with mainland China overshadowed other of the elite of the KMT had little use for the issues in the election. popular Han. On 2 January 2019, President Xi Jinping reaffirmed in a keynote address on Taiwan that a union of the mainland with Taiwan Mobilization for the DPP and a is inevitable, if necessary by force. It should New “Third Force” be carried out under the formula “one coun- try, two systems,” which provides that In contrast, the “green camp” around Presi- territories within the People’s Republic of dent Tsai has shown itself to be united. Al- China can have a partially independent though she had to compete with her former political system. The “one country, two sys- prime minister, William Lai, in the DPP’s tems” concept was developed 40 years ago
SWP Comment 7 February 2020
2 by Deng Xiaoping for Taiwan and later ap- peaceful protest march with up to 2 million plied to Hong Kong and Macau. Although people. the People’s Republic did not name a dead- The protests had been sparked by the line for unification with Taiwan, Xi stressed planned passing of an extradition law. The that this issue should not be passed on from draft law provided that criminals wanted in generation to generation. The unspoken mainland China could be extradited there. end date is (at the latest) the year 2049: Ac- Many Hong Kong citizens feared that the cording to Xi, the “great rejuvenation of the law could be misused to extradite people Chinese nation” is to be completed on the there to the People’s Republic who were occasion of the country’s centennial anni- critical of it. One of Hong Kong’s most im- versary – and this includes unification portant achievements compared with main- with Taiwan. land China is the largely intact rule of law. In Taiwan “one country, two systems” In mainland China, the judiciary has to was, and is, rejected by the overwhelming bow to the instructions of the CCP in cases majority of the population, as well as by all of doubt, which does not meet the stand- parties in parliament. Since Taiwan is de ards of the rule of law. Protests in Hong facto a sovereign state, the island republic Kong have quickly developed into a move- can only lose under this concept. ment against the gradual erosion of the The political line of conflict on Taiwan is city’s remaining freedoms by the People’s different: between the ideal of an independ- Republic. ent Taiwan, for which the DPP stands, and The situation in Hong Kong has made the ideal of a united democratic China, the one thing above all clear to the Taiwanese: Republic of China, which the KMT is striv- the considerably lower level of democratic ing for. The Republic of China was founded freedoms under the “one country, two sys- in 1912 and ended the Chinese Empire. It tems” concept compared to Taiwan. In was ruled dictatorially by the KMT until the addition, the central government in Beijing KMT was defeated by the Chinese Commun- and the local government in Hong Kong ist Party (CCP) in the Chinese Civil War and have shown themselves to be uncompro- had to flee to Taiwan in 1949. The Republic mising; the only concession made was the of China still exists there today. Taiwan withdrawal of the controversial extradition was successfully democratized in the 1990s. law in September 2019. The other four de- Neither the ideals of the DPP nor the KMT mands of the protest movement have been, are currently attainable. Accordingly, the and are still being, ignored: major parties are making efforts to main- 1) the introduction of free and general tain the status quo, that is, Taiwan’s de elections, facto independence: the DPP through closer 2) an independent investigation into police ties to the United States and greater distance violence, from mainland China, the KMT through 3) an amnesty for all accused protesters and close economic ties to mainland China. the release of detainees, and In Taiwan, Xi’s speech was perceived as 4) the demand that the protests not be char- a hardening of the position toward Taiwan, acterized as riots. even if Xi essentially only reaffirmed the Instead, the police reacted with harsh- existing positions of the People’s Republic ness and brutality and have arrested several on this issue. However, in his speech, he thousand protesters to date, many of them missed the opportunity to present new students. There have been numerous reports options for a solution to the conflict that of the mistreatment of detainees. A small would also be acceptable to Taiwan. part of the protest movement has radical- A turning point for the election cam- ized itself and committed violence against paign in Taiwan was the resurgence of the the police, whereas the vast majority re- democracy movement in Hong Kong. It main peaceful and have the support of the reached its first climax in June 2019 in a Hong Kong people. On the one hand, the
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3 People’s Republic insists on the “one coun- ing as party leader as a result. The focus in try, two systems” formula for Taiwan. On the election campaign on relations with the other hand, the Taiwanese see that – mainland China, the protests in Hong Kong, compared to their democracy – even the and the disenchantment with Han helped much more limited democratic freedoms Tsai to make a comeback in 2019. In addi- and rights in Hong Kong are being under- tion, she has raised the minimum wage mined by the CCP. several times, implemented tax cuts, and Tsai has stressed in several speeches and taken other social policy measures, which statements that Taiwan’s democracy is non- has enabled her to regain her popularity. negotiable and that “one country, two sys- tems” is not an acceptable solution. She also expressed her solidarity with Hong Taiwan’s Exemplary Democracy Kong’s democracy movement. At the same time, however, she avoided granting asylum Under Tsai, Taiwan has made further pro- to a larger number of protesters or other- gress in the areas of democracy and human wise offering support for the protest move- rights. For example, the rights of Taiwan’s ment in order not to provoke mainland 16 officially recognized indigenous peoples China. The KMT also rejects “one country, have been strengthened. In 2016, Tsai be- two systems,” and Han said during the came the first president of the island state election campaign that this concept would to apologize for injustices committed in the only be applied in Taiwan “over his dead treatment of indigenous Taiwanese, who body.” But the majority of Taiwanese fear make up about 2 percent of the population. that mainland China could expand its In addition, the authoritarian past was political influence if there were closer eco- dealt with by setting up a commission to nomic cooperation, as envisaged in Han’s investigate the period of the KMT dictator- election platform. ship from 1945 until the complete abolition of martial law in 1992 and to compensate victims. Germany’s reappraisal of the Ger- Solid Economic Development man Democratic Republic (GDR) dictator- ship serves as a model for this; in December President Tsai’s first term in office was 2019, a declaration of intent was signed to marked by sound economic management, facilitate cooperation with the Agency for democratic progress in Taiwan, difficult the Records of the State Security Service of relations with mainland China, and close the former GDR. ties with the United States, Japan, and the In 2019, Taiwan was the first country in European Union (EU). Asia to introduce same-sex marriage. The The Taiwanese economy has grown island state is one of the continent’s front- steadily during Tsai’s first term, averaging runners in terms of freedom of expression 2.5 percent per year from 2016 to 2019. and religion, women’s rights, LGBTQ* rights, With the reductions in pensions for civil and freedom for civil society. Direct democ- servants, it has pushed through an impor- racy has been developed in the form of sim- tant – albeit unpopular – reform for the plified referendum procedures. Together financial sustainability of the social welfare with Japan and South Korea, Taiwan is the systems. Many Taiwanese are dissatisfied most developed democracy in Asia and above all with the almost two decades of the only Chinese democracy that has ever stagnating wages and the simultaneous existed. sharp rise in property prices. The president has not yet been able to solve this problem. This is one of the reasons why the DPP suf- fered a crushing defeat in the local elec- tions in November 2018, with Tsai resign-
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4 Turbulent Relations with China the one hand, it adopted the “31 measures” in 2018 and a further “26 measures” in 2019 After her election in 2016, Tsai promised to create incentives for Taiwanese workers to maintain the status quo in relations with and companies to work and invest in main- mainland China. In her inaugural speech, land China; among other things, Taiwanese she acknowledged the historical signifi- workers and companies were put on an cance of the talks between the two sides in equal footing with mainland Chinese in 1992 without fully embracing the concept many areas. Apparently, these measures of the “1992 Consensus,” which goes back have not yet had the desired effect – in- to an informal agreement between the CCP vestments by Taiwanese companies on the and the KMT: Although there is one China, mainland have been declining since 2016. there are different interpretations of which However, mainland China remains the state precisely this one China was. The CCP largest market outside Taiwan for Taiwan- means the People’s Republic of China, the ese workers and companies, with around KMT the Republic of China. Central from 1 million Taiwanese working there. the CCP’s point of view is the recognition On the other hand, the People’s Republic that Taiwan is a part of China, although has put Taiwan under a lot of pressure. not necessarily the People’s Republic. Firstly, warships and fighter jets regularly The DPP has never accepted this concept circle the island. In addition, Taiwan is the and takes the view that the Taiwanese victim of an estimated 15 million cyber- people must decide on Taiwan’s sovereignty. attacks per month from the People’s Repub- In her inaugural speech, Tsai went a long lic. way toward accommodating mainland China Secondly, the People’s Republic of China by explicitly mentioning the 1992 talks. has further restricted Taiwan’s already lim- She had not received a mandate for fur- ited international scope. Since 2016, the ther steps toward integration with main- People’s Republic has persuaded seven states land China. She did, however, leave in force to recognize the People’s Republic diplo- the 21 agreements that had been ratified matically instead of the Republic of China. by the KMT with mainland China under her This means that Taiwan is now officially predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, which primarily recognized as a state by only 15 countries, concern economic integration. She rejects in Europe only by the Holy See. Pressure is demands for Taiwanese independence, as being exerted on international companies raised by the radical wing of her party. to add the word “China” whenever Taiwan For Xi’s government, however, Tsai’s is mentioned: In 2018, for example, more inaugural speech and its policies offered than 30 airlines were prompted to change too little: The People’s Republic demands “Taiwan” to “Taiwan, China” on their web- the recognition of the “1992 Consensus” sites. Most of them complied with the re- and further steps toward integration with quest so as not to jeopardize their presence the aim of uniting Taiwan with the main- on the mainland Chinese market. land under the formula “one country, two Thirdly, the People’s Republic exerts systems.” As a consequence, Beijing broke influence on the media in Taiwan. One off all contact with the government in Tai- strategy is to buy up media companies in pei after Tsai assumed office in May 2016. Taiwan through China-friendly entrepre- neurs, who then spread the propaganda of the People’s Republic. An example of this “Hide a Dagger behind a Smile” – is the China Times of Taiwanese “cookie China’s Taiwan Politics tycoon” Tsai Eng-meng, who makes most of his profits on the mainland. The China Times After the breakdown of relations, the and other “red media” apparently receive People’s Republic pursued a double strat- direct instructions from Beijing on how and egy of “carrot and stick” toward Taiwan. On what they should report on. Another strat-
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5 egy is to use social media to spread misinfor- record for visitors, with 11.8 million people. mation. With the help of fake accounts, In tourism, Taiwan’s government has suc- social media increases the popularity of ceeded in reducing its dependence on main- pro-Chinese politicians in Taiwan. For land China. Although the mainland Chinese example, Han owes his rapid rise to hun- are still the largest group, with 2.7 million dreds of thousands of fake users on Face- people in 2019, under Tsai’s predecessor, book, inflating his popularity in fan groups. President Ma, there were still 4.1 million at Taiwan’s democracy is probably the the peak of 2015, with 10.4 million visitors world’s biggest victim of the “sharp power” in total. The situation is more difficult for of the People’s Republic, a form of destruc- exports: Mainland China and Hong Kong tive power that seeks to undermine the remain by far the largest export markets for attractiveness and legitimacy of a political the island state, with a combined export system. The aim is to weaken the Taiwanese share of around 40 percent, far ahead of the government and divide Taiwanese society United States (12 percent) and Japan (7 per- through misinformation, propaganda, cent). This share of around 40 percent has threats, and subversion. remained largely stable for 15 years. It will take a lot of patience and determination to reduce Taiwan’s close economic ties with Taiwan Strengthens mainland China. Its Own Resilience After all, Taiwan’s government is count- ing on intensive relations with other devel- In response to growing pressure from main- oped democracies, first and foremost with land China, the government of Tsai has the United States, but also with Japan and strengthened Taiwan’s resilience. Planned the EU. Both sides consider relations be- defense spending for 2020 has been raised tween the United States and Taiwan to be to $13.1 billion, compared to $10.7 billion very good. For example, the United States in 2015. The development and construction passed the “Taiwan Travel Act” in 2018, of its own submarines is boosting the which allows meetings at the government domestic defense industry. level. Both houses of Congress unanimously The parliament has passed several laws adopted the law, a signal of the cross-party against mainland Chinese influence on and visible support Taiwan enjoys in the media and politics, the last measure being United States. In the same year, the United the “Anti-Infiltration Law” at the end of States opened a new large building in December 2019. Among other things, these Taipei for its unofficial representation, the laws prohibit Taiwanese parties from ac- American Institute. cepting money from the People’s Republic The United States is sending warships and tighten restrictions on retired officials through the Taiwan Strait more frequently and soldiers from participating in CCP than in the past and regularly sells weapons activities on the Chinese mainland. to Taiwan. The last major package, agreed The Tsai government is also working in 2019, provides for the sale of 66 F-16 to reduce economic dependence on main- fighter aircraft of the latest generation. land China. To this end, it has initiated the In two high-profile speeches on US policy “New Southbound Policy,” which aims to toward China, delivered in October 2018 strengthen economic, cultural, and social and 2019, respectively, US Vice President relations with South and Southeast Asia. Mike Pence made positive statements about For example, the inhabitants of many of Taiwan; both times he said, “America will these states can now enter Taiwan without always believe that Taiwan’s embrace of a visa, which has led to an increase in tour- democracy shows a better path for all the ism from these regions. In addition, more Chinese people.” and more travelers are coming from Japan US policy is to maintain the status quo in and South Korea. In 2019, Taiwan set a new the Taiwan Strait. They are signaling to the
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6 People’s Republic that they are supporting policy has weakened the KMT. The party’s Taiwan in order to prevent mainland mili- problem is that it wants to continue the poli- tary actions against the island. If the pres- cies of President Ma (2008–2016). In doing sure of the People’s Republic on Taiwan so, it overlooks the fact that the People’s increases further, the United States will Republic is not the same today as it was 10 probably be forced to make an even stronger years ago, but rather that it is more aggres- commitment to defend the island state if sive and demanding toward Taiwan while it wants to prevent military actions by the becoming more repressive at home. More- People’s Republic. over, the KMT has hardly any voters under Taiwan’s relations with Japan and the EU the age of 40 because they do not identify have also developed in a positive manner with the Republic of China and usually see during Tsai’s first term of office. Japan has themselves exclusively as Taiwanese. The traditionally maintained close relations comparatively solid performance of the with the DPP. The EU regards the human KMT in the parliamentary elections shows, rights situation in Taiwan as being exem- however, that with suitable – young – plary in Asia and bases bilateral relations personnel and new ideas, the party can on shared values and good economic become competitive again. relations. Initial reactions from the People’s Repub- lic indicate that it is continuing its policy of putting pressure on Taiwan and sticking Threat to Taiwan Increases to the “one country, two systems” formula. The repression by the CCP in Tibet, Xin- For President Tsai’s second term of office, a jiang, and Hong Kong demonstrates its lack continuation of her policy of the past four of ability to compromise and grant political years is expected. freedom. In current Chinese politics, it is As far as relations with mainland China also less risky for politicians to adopt a are concerned, much depends on the gov- tough and nationalistic stance than to be ernment in Beijing. One option would be willing to compromise and be open to new for the People’s Republic to maintain, or ideas and concepts. Accordingly, the People’s even increase, the pressure on Taiwan, and Republic will continue to try to infiltrate a second option would be for it to change Taiwan’s democracy and spread misinfor- its policy on Taiwan in favor of more dia- mation as well as increase military and logue and compromise. This second pos- diplomatic pressure. sibility seems unlikely at present. It would, however, be the prerequisite for peaceful unification, which is the publicly expressed EU: Safeguarding the Status goal of the government in Beijing. Quo and Supporting Taiwan’s In her speech on election evening in Democracy 2020, President Tsai again emphasized her willingness to engage in dialogue and The most recent strategy paper on EU– understanding with the mainland. The China relations of March 2019 characterizes basis must be a commitment to peace and bilateral relations in this way: cooperation, the renunciation of threats, a dialogue based balancing mutual interests, competition, on mutual respect and parity, and respect and rivalry in terms of values and political for the democratic will of the Taiwanese. systems. Taiwan only appears in a footnote. The Taiwanese must be allowed to decide Following on from the EU Strategy Paper of on their own future in a democratic process. 2016, the Union is basing its relations with The harsh attitude of the People’s Repub- Taiwan on the “One China Policy,” the fur- lic over the last four years has been coun- ther development of relations with Taiwan terproductive and has further alienated on the basis of shared values, and peace in Taiwan from the mainland. Thus, Beijing’s the Taiwan Strait.
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7 The Union’s most recent strategy paper plained by Chinese media as being the illustrates the tensions in relations in which result of the fraud and dirty tricks of the it finds itself with the People’s Republic. DPP and the influence of the United States, On the one hand, China is an economic and without giving any facts or evidence. Tai- political partner in trade and investment wan’s democracy is only “a coat under as well as the solution for global problems which the forces of Taiwanese independ- such as climate protection; on the other ence hide,” as a professor from the People’s hand, the People’s Republic is a rival that Republic said at a recent conference in propagates an authoritarian model of gov- Shanghai. Just as with the situation in Hong ernment and undermines global norms Kong, Beijing cannot imagine that people © Stiftung Wissenschaft such as human rights. want to live in freedom. und Politik, 2020 European policy toward Taiwan also finds All rights reserved itself in this area of tension. The island state shares European values of democracy This Comment reflects and human rights. As with the support for the author’s views. human rights defenders in mainland China The online version of and Hong Kong or taking action concerning this publication contains the repression of people in Xinjiang and functioning links to other Tibet, the EU must consider what it values SWP texts and other relevant in its relations with Taiwan in promoting sources. democracy and human rights. The planned SWP Comments are subject EU–China summit in Germany in Septem- to internal peer review, fact- ber 2020 is an appropriate time for such a checking and copy-editing. discussion on a “Taiwan strategy.” For further information on In addition, EU member states should our quality control pro- engage more with the United States and cedures, please visit the SWP website: https://www.swp- Japan on how to maintain peace and sta- berlin.org/en/about-swp/ bility in the Taiwan Strait and how the quality-management-for- world’s democracies can better support one swp-publications/ of their own. There are many opportunities for co- SWP operation with Taiwan below the level of Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik formal state recognition from which both German Institute for sides could benefit and which can be in- International and tensified: in technology and science, the Security Affairs energy revolution, and the promotion of human rights. In Germany and Europe, Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 10719 Berlin Taiwan is not sufficiently understood as Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 the valuable partner it is – as a successful Fax +49 30 880 07-100 democracy and a technologically innovative www.swp-berlin.org economy. Its IT industry, for example, is [email protected] one of the world’s most advanced. At the same time, the EU could offer to ISSN 1861-1761 doi: 10.18449/2020C07 organize dialogues and conferences involv- ing itself, mainland China, and Taiwan. (English version of These dialogues should, among other things, SWP-Aktuell 5/2020) try to make mainland China more under- standing of Taiwan’s democracy and values. Tsai’s election victory, for example, is ex-
Dr Frédéric Krumbein is Heinrich Heine Visiting Professor at Tel Aviv University.
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