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Sources of Value in the Cannabis Industry: the Case of Canadian Public Companies

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Sources of Value in the Cannabis Industry: the Case of Canadian Public Companies UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS MASTER’S THESIS SOURCES OF VALUE IN THE CANNABIS INDUSTRY: THE CASE OF CANADIAN PUBLIC COMPANIES Ljubljana, December 2019 MARK MALIS AUTHORSHIP STATEMENT The undersigned Mark Malis, a student at the University of Ljubljana, School of Economics and Business, (hereafter: SEB LU), author of this master’s thesis with the title THE SOURCES OF VALUE IN THE CANNABIS INDUSTRY: THE CASE OF CANADIAN PUBLIC COMPANIES, prepared under supervision of Professor Aljoša Valentinčič, PhD, DECLARE 1. this master’s thesis to be based on the results of my own research; 2. the printed form of this master’s thesis to be identical to its electronic form; 3. the text of this master’s thesis to be language-edited and technically in adherence with the SEB LU’s Technical Guidelines for Written Works, which means that I cited and / or quoted works and opinions of other authors in this master’s thesis in accordance with the SEB LU’s Technical Guidelines for Written Works; 4. to be aware of the fact that plagiarism (in written or graphical form) is a criminal offence and can be prosecuted in accordance with the Criminal Code of the Republic of Slovenia; 5. to be aware of the consequences a proven plagiarism charge based on the this written final work could have for my status at the SEB LU in accordance with the relevant SEB LU Rules; 6. to have obtained all the necessary permits to use the data and works of other authors which are (in written or graphical form) referred to in this master’s thesis and to have clearly marked them; 7. to have acted in accordance with ethical principles during the preparation of this master’s thesis and to have, where necessary, obtained permission of the Ethics Committee; 8. my consent to use the electronic form of this master’s thesis for the detection of content similarity with other written works, using similarity detection software that is connected with the SEB LU Study Information System; 9. to transfer to the University of Ljubljana free of charge, non-exclusively, geographically and time-wise unlimited the right of saving this master’s thesis in the electronic form, the right of its reproduction, as well as the right of making this master’s thesis available to the public on the World Wide Web via the Repository of the University of Ljubljana; 10. my consent to publication of my personal data that are included in this master’s thesis and in this declaration, when this master’s thesis is published. Ljubljana, October 2019 Author’s signature: _________________________ TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.1 Regulation ............................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Demand for Cannabis Products and Consumption Behaviour ............................... 5 1.3 Transition from Illegal to Legal Channels .............................................................. 7 1.4 Creation of Jobs ...................................................................................................... 8 1.5 Medical Marijuana .................................................................................................. 8 1.6 Industrial Hemp ...................................................................................................... 9 1.7 Future Market Drivers .......................................................................................... 10 1.7.1 Trends in Edibles and Beverages ................................................................... 11 1.7.2 Supply and Demand ....................................................................................... 12 1.7.3 Favourable Reimbursement Environment, Government Support, and Economic Implications .................................................................................. 15 1.7.4 Banking Bill ................................................................................................... 16 1.7.5 Therapeutic Effects of Cannabis and Cannabinoids ...................................... 17 1.7.6 Global Growth of the Cannabis Industry ....................................................... 19 1.7.7 Countries Increasingly Legalising the Use of Medical Marijuana ................ 21 3.1 Relative Valuation ................................................................................................ 26 3.2 Discounted Cash Flow Approach (DCF) .............................................................. 33 i LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Total Inventories and Sales of Dried Cannabis (Kilograms) ............................... 13 Figure 2: Total Inventories and Sales of Cannabis Oil (Litres) .......................................... 13 Figure 3: Finished Inventories and Sales of Dried Cannabis (Kilograms) ......................... 14 Figure 4: Finished Inventories and Sales of Cannabis Oil (Litres) ..................................... 14 Figure 5: Selling Price Per Gram Equivalent ...................................................................... 31 Figure 6: Gross Margin Per Gram Equivalent .................................................................... 31 Figure 7: Biological assets reporting in the balance sheet (Canopy Growth) ..................... 32 Figure 8: Biological assets reporting in the income statement (Canopy Growth) .............. 33 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Effects of cannabis based products and cannabinoids on different diseases ........ 18 Table 2: Marijuana status in some countries around the world ........................................... 21 Table 3: Multiples Among Cannabis Companies ............................................................... 28 Table 4: EV/SALES and EV/EBITDA multiples across industries .................................... 29 Table 5: Estimated EV/EBITDA 2020 multiples across industries adjusted to CAGR...... 29 Table 6: PB ratios across comparable industries ................................................................. 30 Table 7: CAPM and WACC Calculations for Canopy Growth .......................................... 38 Table 8: DCF Analysis for Canopy Growth ........................................................................ 38 Table 9: Sensitivity analysis for Canopy Growth (WACC, Perpetuity growth) ................. 39 Table 10: Sensitivity analysis for Canopy Growth (WACC, Tax rate) .............................. 39 Table 11: Valuation comparison among selected cannabis companies .............................. 40 LIST OF APPENDIXES Appendix 1: POVZETEK ..................................................................................................... 1 Appendix 2: DCF, CAPM, and WACC for Aurora Cannabis .............................................. 3 Appendix 3: DCF, CAPM, and WACC for Tilray ................................................................ 4 Appendix 4: DCF, CAPM, and WACC for Cronos Group ................................................... 5 Appendix 5: DCF, CAPM, and WACC for Aphria .............................................................. 6 Appendix 6: DCF, CAPM, and WACC for Hexo Corp ........................................................ 7 Appendix 7: DCF, CAPM, and WACC for OrganiGram Holdings ...................................... 8 Appendix 8: DCF, CAPM, and WACC for CannTrust Holdings ......................................... 9 Appendix 9: DCF, CAPM, and WACC for Village Farms ................................................. 10 Appendix 10: DCF, CAPM, and WACC for Supreme Cannabis ....................................... 11 ii INTRODUCTION Prohibition of cannabis in North America lasted for almost a century. The world is rapidly changing and adapting to new policies, countries look up to each other and trying to figure out, where they can benefit the most. Countries around the world have been accepting cannabis more and more especially for its medical purposes. Canada has legalised medical cannabis for patients with HIV/AIDS in 2001. In 2013, Canada legalised medical cannabis for patients with other illnesses as well (Selsky, 2019). In October of 2018, Canada has become the first G-7 country to legalise cannabis for recreational use and only the second country in the world, after Uruguay, to do so (Department of Justice Canada, 2018). Many countries have adopted cannabis for medical purposes and there has been an increasing emphasis on the studies done on how to treat different diseases with the cannabis. Countries have figured out that cannabis can help many people but if regulated properly, it can also protect children from getting it illegally, decrease black market and other illegal activities and in addition, helps boost economy with increasing tax revenues to the government, creating many new job positions, opening the economy with increased exports, etc. Public companies that are producing cannabis products have become very popular in Canada. These are licensed producers with experienced team members such as doctors, pharmacists, professors, physicians, even former bankers, which are trying hard to offer top quality and safe products to their patients and recreational users (Bowman, 2017). The focus of this Master’s thesis is to explain, which factors and sources are affecting the value of the cannabis industry, such as the regulation, market (supply and demand), banking reforms, economic implications, impact on all stakeholders, future market drivers, collaborations (M&A), etc. From the finance and investment perspective, I assess the value of the 10 well-known public Canadian cannabis companies with different valuation models and financial
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