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Illicit Drug Policies and Social Outcomes: a Cross- Country Analysis

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Illicit Drug Policies and Social Outcomes: a Cross- Country Analysis ILLICIT DRUG POLICIES AND SOCIAL OUTCOMES: A CROSS- COUNTRY ANALYSIS Final report 31st March 2021 Illicit drug policies and social outcomes: a cross- country analysis Research project funded by the European Research Area Network on Illicit Drugs (ERANID) Project team Principal Investigator (PI) and co-Principal Investigators (co- PI) Ricardo Gonçalves (PI), Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Portugal Pierre Kopp (co-PI), Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne, France Dirk Korf (co-PI), Faculty of Law, University of Amsterdam, Netherlands Carla Rossi (co-PI), Consorzio per lo sviluppo delle metodologie e delle innovazioni nelle pubbliche amministrazioni (MIPA), Italy Research team France: Marysia Ogrodnik (Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne) Italy: Alessio Canzonetti, Dario Cirillo, Francesca de Marinis, Francesco Fabi and Fabio Massimo Lanzoni (MIPA) Netherlands: Annemieke Benschop, Nienke Liebregts and Kostas Skliamis (University of Amsterdam) Portugal: Ana Lourenço and Hélia Marreiros (Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa) Advisors Cláudia Costa Storti, EMCDDA Paul de Grauwe, London School of Economics Mathias Siems, Durham University Jenny Williams, University of Melbourne Please cite as: Gonçalves, R., Kopp, P., Korf, D., Rossi, C., Ogrodnik, M., Canzonetti, A., Cirillo, D., de Marinis, F., Fabi, F., Lanzoni, F. M., Benschop, A., Liebregts, N., Skliamis, K., Lourenço, A. & Marreiros, H. (2021). Illicit drug policies and social outcomes: a cross-country analysis. Final report to ERANID. DISCLAIMER This document is the final report of the IDPSO project funded by ERANID. Any opinions contained in this document should only be attributed to the authors and not to the institutions they are affiliated with. Porto, 31st March 2021 Ricardo Gonçalves Católica Porto Business School | vii TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. OVERVIEW OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT .................................................................................. 1 1.1.1. Goal and funding ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2. Research team ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.3. Structure of the research project ...................................................................................... 1 1.2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 2 2. CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISON OF NATIONAL DRUG POLICIES USING LEXIMETRICS ................................................................................................................................ 7 2.1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 7 2.2. METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1. Legislative timelines ......................................................................................................... 9 2.2.2. Leximetrics: variable selection and coding system ........................................................ 14 2.3. RESULTS ................................................................................................................................ 17 2.3.1. Cross-time results by country [1996-2016] ................................................................... 17 2.3.2. Cross-country and cross-time results [1996-2016] ....................................................... 30 2.4. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................ 36 3. QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE STUDY OF DRUG POLICY PERCEPTIONS ............................................................................................................................. 37 3.1. DRUG POLICY PERCEPTIONS: SUMMARY OF TWO QUANTITATIVE SURVEYS ........................ 37 3.1.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 37 3.1.2. Key findings of the general population survey .............................................................. 38 3.1.3. Key findings of the user survey ..................................................................................... 42 3.2. CHANGES IN DRUG POLICY AND PRACTICE: A QUALITATIVE APPROACH ........................... 46 3.2.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 46 3.2.2. Approach ........................................................................................................................ 49 3.2.3. Stability and change in drug policy since 1996 ............................................................. 50 3.2.4. Changes in drug law ...................................................................................................... 55 3.2.5. Changes in drug production and supply ....................................................................... 57 3.2.6. Changes in prevention ................................................................................................... 60 3.2.7. Changes in harm reduction ............................................................................................ 61 3.2.8. Changes in treatment ..................................................................................................... 64 3.2.9. Key indicators to measure and evaluate the impact of drug policy ............................... 66 3.2.10. Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 66 4. KEY SOCIAL INDICATORS FOR DRUG POLICY ANALYSIS ................................... 69 4.1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 69 4.2. SOCIAL INDICATORS DATABASE ........................................................................................... 70 5. ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF DRUG POLICIES ON KEY SOCIAL INDICATORS .......................................................................................................................................................... 73 5.1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 73 5.2. APPROACH ............................................................................................................................ 76 viii | ILLICIT DRUG POLICIES AND SOCIAL OUTCOMES: A CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS 5.2.1. Econometric approach .................................................................................................... 76 5.2.2. Variables ......................................................................................................................... 76 5.3. RESULTS ................................................................................................................................. 81 5.3.1. Cannabis ......................................................................................................................... 81 5.3.2. Cocaine ........................................................................................................................... 82 5.3.3. Ecstasy ............................................................................................................................ 83 5.4. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................ 84 6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................. 86 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................ 89 TABLES TABLE 1 – CATÓLICA ILLICIT DRUG POLICY INDEX (CATÓLICA-IDPI) ..................................... 13 TABLE 2 – NUMBER OF EXPERT INTERVIEWS PER COUNTRY ........................................................... 50 TABLE 3 – SOCIAL INDICATORS DATABASE ..................................................................................... 70 FIGURES FIGURE 1: CONSUMPTION, POSSESSION AND TRAFFIC OF CANNABIS IN PORTUGAL: 1996-2016 18 FIGURE 2 - CONSUMPTION, POSSESSION AND TRAFFIC OF HARD DRUGS IN PORTUGAL: 1996- 2016 .......................................................................................................................................... 18 FIGURE 3 - HARM REDUCTION, TREATMENT AND PREVENTION IN PORTUGAL: 1996-2016 ........ 19 FIGURE 4 - CONSUMPTION, POSSESSION AND TRAFFIC OF CANNABIS IN ITALY: 1996-2016 ........ 20 FIGURE 5 - CONSUMPTION, POSSESSION AND TRAFFIC OF HARD DRUGS IN ITALY: 1996-2016 .. 20 FIGURE 6 - HARM REDUCTION, TREATMENT AND PREVENTION IN ITALY: 1996-2016 ................ 21 FIGURE 7 - CONSUMPTION, POSSESSION AND TRAFFIC OF CANNABIS IN FRANCE: 1996-2016 .... 21 FIGURE 8 - CONSUMPTION, POSSESSION AND TRAFFIC OF HARD DRUGS IN FRANCE: 1996-2016 .................................................................................................................................................. 22 FIGURE 9 - HARM REDUCTION, TREATMENT AND PREVENTION IN FRANCE: 1996-2016 ............
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