Supplementary Information for: Weather at the winter and stopover areas determines spring migration onset, progress, and advancements in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds
Authors Birgen Haest1, 2, *, Ommo Hüppop1, Franz Bairlein1
Affiliations 1 Institute of Avian Research „Vogelwarte Helgoland‟, Wilhelmshaven, 26386, Germany 2 Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, CH-6204, Switzerland * Corresponding author: [email protected]; +49 176 749 786 82
This PDF file includes: Supplementary Figures S1 to S5 Supplementary Tables S1 to S14 SI References
1 www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1920448117
Supplementary Figures Fig. S1 Per species ΔAICc, adjusted R2, and regression coefficient maps of the identified best time windows for temperature. The ΔAICc values are the difference of the AICc value of the model with the selected best time window for each pixel with the AICc value of the baseline model for that species (see Table S3). ΔAICc values are only shown for pixels that had a probability Pc value < 0.3, i.e., pixels for which the relation between the identified time window and mean spring passage date had a ΔAICc that is less likely to obtain due to chance. The adjusted R2 values are for the models that have as independent variables both the best identified time window for temperature and the „year‟ terms to account for trends (see Table S3). The regression coefficient maps show the regression coefficient (days/°C) of the best identified time window for temperature when „year‟ terms to account for trends are also included in the model (see Table S3). Yellow dots with annotated numbers indicate the candidate pixels selected as potentially influencing mean spring migration phenology at Helgoland (see Table S8). The ID values are used consistently throughout all supplementary figures and tables for ease of reference.
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European Pied Flycatcher
3
Common Redstart
4
Willow Warbler
5
Common Whitethroat
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Garden Warbler
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Spotted Flycatcher
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Fig. S2 Per species ΔAICc, adjusted R2, and regression coefficient maps of the identified best time windows for precipitation. The ΔAICc values are the difference of the AICc value of the model with the selected best time window for each pixel with the AICc value of the baseline model for that species (see Table S3). ΔAICc values are only shown for pixels that had a probability Pc value < 0.3, i.e., pixels for which the relation between the identified time window and mean spring passage date had a ΔAICc that is less likely to obtain due to chance. The adjusted R2 values are for the models that have as independent variables both the best identified time window for precipitation and the „year‟ terms to account for trends (see Table S3). The regression coefficient maps show the regression coefficient (days/mm) of the best identified time window for precipitation when „year‟ terms to account for trends are also included in the model (see Table S3). Yellow dots with annotated numbers indicate the candidate pixels selected as potentially influencing mean spring migration phenology at Helgoland (see Table S8). The ID values are used consistently throughout all supplementary figures and tables for ease of reference.
9
European Pied Flycatcher
10
Common Redstart
11
Willow Warbler
12
Common Whitethroat
13
Garden Warbler
14
Spotted Flycatcher
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Fig. S3 Per species ΔAICc, adjusted R2, and regression coefficient maps of the identified best time windows for the number of days with midnight winds coming from the direction of Helgoland. The ΔAICc values are the difference of the AICc value of the model with the selected best time window for each pixel with the AICc value of the baseline model for that species (see Table S3). ΔAICc values are only shown for pixels that had a probability Pc value < 0.3, i.e., pixels for which the relation between the identified time window and mean spring passage date had a ΔAICc that is less likely to obtain due to chance. The adjusted R2 values are for the models that have as independent variables both the best identified time window for number of days with midnight wind coming from Helgoland and the „year‟ terms to account for trends (see Table S3). The regression coefficient maps show the regression coefficient (days/day) of the best identified time window for the number of days with midnight wind coming from Helgoland when „year‟ terms to account for trends are also included in the model (see Table S3). Yellow dots with annotated numbers indicate the candidate pixels selected as potentially influencing mean spring migration phenology at Helgoland (see Table S8). The ID values are used consistently throughout all supplementary figures and tables for ease of reference.
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European Pied Flycatcher
17
Common Redstart
18
Willow Warbler
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Common Whitethroat
20
Garden Warbler
21
Spotted Flycatcher
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Fig. S4 Per species ΔAICc, adjusted R2, and regression coefficient maps of the identified best time windows for the number of days with midnight winds going into the direction of Helgoland. The ΔAICc values are the difference of the AICc value of the model with the selected best time window for each pixel with the AICc value of the baseline model for that species (see Table S3). ΔAICc values are only shown for pixels that had a probability Pc value < 0.3, i.e., pixels for which the relation between the identified time window and mean spring passage date had a ΔAICc that is less likely to obtain due to chance. The adjusted R2 values are for the models that have as independent variables both the best identified time window for number of days with midnight wind going to Helgoland and the „year‟ terms to account for trends (see Table S3). The regression coefficient maps show the regression coefficient (days/day) of the best identified time window for the number of days with midnight wind going to Helgoland when „year‟ terms to account for trends are also included in the model (see Table S3). Yellow dots with annotated numbers indicate the candidate pixels selected as potentially influencing mean spring migration phenology at Helgoland (see Table S8). The ID values are used consistently throughout all supplementary figures and tables for ease of reference.
23
European Pied Flycatcher
24
Common Redstart
25
Willow Warbler
26
Common Whitethroat
27
Garden Warbler
28
Spotted Flycatcher
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Fig. S5 Histograms of the adjusted and predictive R2 values for: (a) the „best‟ model (in terms of AICc and irrespective of the number of independent variables); and (b) the model with the four „most important‟ (albeit falsely identified) variables, in each of the two hundred repetitions of the full procedure using randomized versions of each species‟ spring migration phenology. The full red, full orange, dashed, and dotted horizontal lines are drawn at values of 0.80, 0.70, 0.50 and 0.30, respectively.
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(a) 31
(b) 32
Supplementary Tables
Table S1 Per-species overview of the spring migration passage timing across years, including average 5th and 95th percentile, and mean spring passage date (MSPD) as Gregorian calendar date, standard deviation of MSPD (days), difference between the 5th and 95th percentile (days), the total amount of ringed birds and the average number of birds ringed per year. Species are ordered by average MSPD.
Difference Average 5th Average Average 95th Standard deviation 95th and 5th Total birds ringed Average Species name Scientific name percentile MSPD percentile MSPD (days) percentile (days) 1960-2014 birds / year European Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca 03 May 15 May 28 May 5.80 25 2753 50 Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus 01 May 15 May 30 May 5.49 29 12038 219 Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus 01 May 15 May 29 May 6.11 28 12620 229 Common Whitethroat Sylvia communis 08 May 19 May 02 Jun 5.03 26 6843 124 Garden Warbler Sylvia borin 13 May 24 May 04 Jun 4.10 22 19028 346 Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata 13 May 26 May 09 Jun 4.07 26 4355 79
Table S2 Properties and pre-processing of the weather data that were acquired from the NCEP Reanalysis I database.
Spatial resolution Number of Weather variable NCEP variable (in degrees) analyzed grid cells Data pre-processing and comments temperature 'air.2m' 1.875° 558 We calculated daily mean temperatures from the four 6-hour temperature values. precipitation 'prate.sfc' 3.75° 159 Precipitation rate data were converted to mm/day. Spatial resolution is half that of the temperature data, because we took the mean over four grid cells. wind direction (East-West) 'uwnd' and 2.5° 342 The 925 hPa pressure level roughly corresponds to 750 m altitude. We used the (North-South) 'vwnd' at midnight values (UTC) of the u- and v-wind components to calculate the midnight 925 hPa wind direction.
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Table S3 Per‐species overview of the selection of the best mean spring passage date (MSPD) temporal trend model, including the coefficients and their standard errors (SE) of the selected best trend model.
Trend coefficients Species Scientific name Selected MSPD adj. R2 Int. SE Lin. SE Quad. SE Cubic SE trend model European Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca Linear 0.33 566.73 80.13 -0.21 0.04 - - - - Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus Linear 0.25 497.84 80.04 -0.18 0.04 - - - - Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus Quadratic 0.62 145.31 0.51 -34.35 3.79 -9.54 3.79 - - Common Whitethroat Sylvia communis Cubic 0.39 149.01 0.53 -21.53 3.93 -5.80 3.93 8.83 3.93 Garden Warbler Sylvia borin Linear 0.56 535.13 46.14 -0.19 0.02 - - - - Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata Linear 0.40 480.65 53.05 -0.16 0.03 - - - -
Table S4 Per species overview of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test results for stationarity in the residuals of the mean spring passage date trend models (see Table S3). For all species, the ADF test was based on the full year sequence, and the 0.01 critical value was -2.6.
Species ADF test statistic European Pied Flycatcher -5.28 Common Redstart -5.48 Willow Warbler -5.64 Common Whitethroat -4.77 Garden Warbler -5.36 Spotted Flycatcher -5.69
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Table S5 Per species overview of the Durbin-Watson test results for autocorrelation up to lag 2 in the residuals of the mean spring passage date trend models (see Table S3). Analysis for all species based on the full year sequence, i.e. 1960-2014.
lag autocorrelation DW statistic p value European Pied Flycatcher 1 0.11 1.75 0.274 2 -0.08 2.01 0.950 Common Redstart 1 -0.06 2.12 0.760 2 0.00 1.90 0.710 Willow Warbler 1 -0.07 2.14 0.811 2 -0.05 1.81 0.395 Common Whitethroat 1 -0.02 1.99 0.638 2 0.03 1.85 0.390 Garden Warbler 1 -0.13 2.26 0.409 2 0.02 1.95 0.867 Spotted Flycatcher 1 -0.10 2.19 0.562 2 -0.07 2.10 0.733
Table S6 General settings for the time window analyses Reference day of the year: 1 July Minimum time window length: 14 Pc limit(26, 32, 33): < 0.3
Table S7 Settings for the time window analysis, specific to each of the analyzed weather variables
Operation on each Maximum time Period of the year Number of windows Weather variable* time window window length analyzed (approximate) analyzed per grid cell temperature mean 365 2 July to 1 July 62481 precipitation sum wind - midnight - coming from Helgoland number of days 183 30 December to 1 July 14706 wind - midnight - going to Helgoland *For definitions of how the weather variables were calculated, see the “Materials and Methods – Weather data” section. 35
Table S8 Overview of the candidate weather signals selected from the ΔAICc maps, including the identified time windows, ΔAICc values compared to trend model (see Table S3) and an intercept-only model, probability Pc value that the ΔAICc value was obtained by chance, locations of the identified grid cells, an ID value for comparison with the ΔAICc maps from Figures S1 to S4, and whether or not they were removed from further analysis due to collinearity with another candidate weather signal, a low ΔAICc compared to the intercept-only model, or because they were not in the top 15 of a variable importance analysis using the boruta method (in italics). The ID values are used consistently throughout all supplementary figures and tables for ease of reference.
Variable Removed ΔAICc ΔAICc Reduction - before (compared (compared to Boruta variable to trend intercept-only Open Variable importance Species Climate variable model) model) PC Date Close Date Location ID Importance analysis? Reason European Pied Flycatcher temperature -9.88 -21.85 0.03 23 Mar 24 Apr Coast of Guinea-Bissau and 1 0.04 Guinea European Pied Flycatcher temperature -14.61 -23.45 0.01 25 Feb 10 Apr Morocco / Western Sahara 2 0.03 European Pied Flycatcher temperature -23.16 -31.19 0.00 01 Apr 21 May Mauritania 3 0.04 European Pied Flycatcher temperature -10.36 -29.06 0.06 26 Jan 19 Feb coast of Liberia 4 - YES Highly collinear with ID6 European Pied Flycatcher temperature -25.71 -28.58 0.00 26 Mar 20 May SW Mali 5 - YES Highly collinear with ID3 European Pied Flycatcher temperature -11.92 -32.77 0.17 05 Dec 26 Dec coast of Côte d'Ivoire 6 0.04 European Pied Flycatcher temperature -18.52 -29.94 0.00 17 Apr 09 Jun S France / NE Spain 7 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta European Pied Flycatcher temperature -23.21 -31.23 0.00 10 Feb 08 Jun NW Algeria / NE Morocco 8 0.06 European Pied Flycatcher temperature -20.71 -12.59 0.00 09 Feb 27 Jun S Algeria 9 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta European Pied Flycatcher temperature -23.53 -18.82 0.00 05 Apr 07 Jun C Algeria 10 0.04 European Pied Flycatcher temperature -19.33 -30.45 0.00 16 Apr 13 May Netherlands / Belgium / W 11 - YES Highly collinear with Germany ID14 European Pied Flycatcher temperature -26.56 -30.71 0.00 29 Apr 14 May coast of Algeria and Tunisia 12 0.03 / Western Mediterranean islands European Pied Flycatcher temperature -8.67 -30.17 0.07 10 Mar 14 May coast of Nigeria 13 - YES Highly collinear with ID6 European Pied Flycatcher temperature -20.25 -37.08 0.00 23 Mar 14 May Germany 14 0.06 European Pied Flycatcher temperature -21.33 -23.52 0.00 27 Nov 12 Dec Italy 15 0.04 European Pied Flycatcher temperature -5.49 -21.72 0.23 19 Jan 18 Feb SW Central African 16 0.03 Republic European Pied Flycatcher precipitation -17.15 -16.09 0.00 12 Apr 14 May N Portugal / NW Spain 17 - YES Highly collinear with ID29 European Pied Flycatcher precipitation -15.79 -9.22 0.01 20 Jul 30 Aug Netherlands / NW Germany 18 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta European Pied Flycatcher precipitation -13.84 -4.44 0.07 13 Jan 12 Feb N Germany 19 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta European Pied Flycatcher precipitation -10.77 1.76 0.25 17 Jul 20 Aug N Italy 20 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 36
European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -16.16 -8.75 0.00 27 Apr 13 May Portugal 21 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -8.31 0.59 0.23 21 Apr 16 May NE Mauritania 22 - YES ΔAICc model with From Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -10.09 -8.08 0.14 13 Mar 09 Apr UK 23 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -15.31 -3.46 0.05 30 Apr 14 May NW Spain 24 - YES Highly collinear with From Helgoland ID21 European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - -34.19 -40.82 0.00 09 Feb 09 Jun Mali 25 0.05 Coming From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.04 -7.73 0.06 18 Jan 06 Feb UK 26 - YES Highly collinear with From Helgoland ID54 European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - -14.67 -32.87 0.01 09 Feb 15 May E Algeria 27 0.04 Coming From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - -14.45 -13.42 0.00 26 Jan 26 Feb S Algeria 28 0.03 Coming From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -24.81 -25.31 0.00 16 Apr 14 May coast of Algeria / Balearic 29 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland islands European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -11.04 -7.55 0.00 02 Mar 22 Mar W Norway 30 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.44 -11.58 0.00 14 Apr 12 May Helgoland 31 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -17.34 -11.64 0.00 29 Apr 14 May SE France / NW Italy 32 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -15.84 -11.35 0.01 30 Apr 16 May S Tunisia / E Algeria 33 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -10.33 -12.17 0.06 16 Mar 21 May Niger 34 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -17.64 -2.20 0.01 01 May 16 May coast of Cameroon 35 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -10.04 -9.59 0.04 21 Mar 20 May NE Niger 36 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -16.74 -16.28 0.00 06 Mar 21 Mar Croatia / E Italy 37 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -24.04 -20.32 0.00 13 Jan 10 Mar S Italy / Sicily 38 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -11.59 0.38 0.15 21 Mar 17 May N Libya 39 - YES ΔAICc model with From Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - -20.40 -24.54 0.00 05 Mar 12 Apr W Romania 40 0.03 Coming From Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -15.73 -8.89 0.00 23 Jan 25 May Greece 41 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland 37
European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -12.74 -24.65 0.00 10 Mar 14 May Western Sahara / Morocco 42 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -9.36 -16.90 0.05 14 Apr 18 May Mauritania 43 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -16.31 -6.48 0.00 27 Apr 16 May N Spain / Portugal 44 - YES Highly collinear with To Helgoland ID21 European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -24.83 -20.63 0.00 12 Apr 06 Jun Mali 45 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -13.74 -16.12 0.21 07 Jun 29 Jun Morocco 46 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -14.29 -9.21 0.00 18 Jan 08 Feb UK 47 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -19.52 -15.40 0.00 26 Mar 16 May France 48 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -13.18 0.91 0.02 25 Feb 06 Apr C Algeria 49 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -14.10 -20.88 0.01 05 Apr 14 May N Algeria / Tunisia 50 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -23.26 -17.76 0.00 05 Mar 23 Mar Germany / Netherlands / 51 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Belgium European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -13.53 -2.37 0.04 21 Feb 19 Mar C Niger 52 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -17.33 -36.42 0.00 16 Apr 05 May C Nigeria 53 0.05 To Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -14.84 -8.57 0.01 15 Jan 06 Feb S Sweden / N Poland / NE 54 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Germany European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -17.04 -18.12 0.00 16 Apr 01 May Czech Republic / Slovakia 55 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -13.49 -1.90 0.44 17 Jan 31 Jan Sicily / S Italy 56 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 European Pied Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -11.97 -6.59 0.07 09 Apr 27 Apr C Libya 57 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Common Redstart temperature -11.18 0.57 0.06 19 Sep 09 Nov coast of Senegal and The 1 - YES ΔAICc model with Gambia variable and intercept- only model > -2 Common Redstart temperature -12.94 -23.30 0.02 17 Jun 01 Jul Canary Islands / Western 2 0.04 Sahara Common Redstart temperature -13.15 0.93 0.00 22 Sep 12 Jan Morocco / S Spain / S 3 - YES ΔAICc model with Portugal variable and intercept- only model > -2 Common Redstart temperature -13.94 -18.48 0.02 25 Dec 25 Jan SW Algeria 4 0.03 Common Redstart temperature -12.27 -17.16 0.01 28 Jan 01 Jul N Spain / S France / western 5 0.06 38
Mediterranean coast and islands Common Redstart temperature -11.77 -12.68 0.17 17 May 31 May SE Spain / NE Morocco 6 0.03 Common Redstart temperature -12.76 -16.93 0.00 28 Jan 01 Jul N Spain / S France / western 7 - YES Highly collinear with Mediterranean coast and ID5 islands Common Redstart temperature -9.07 -15.64 0.27 24 Mar 08 Jun N Spain / S France / western 8 - YES Highly collinear with Mediterranean coast and ID5 islands Common Redstart temperature -14.37 -14.17 0.08 21 Dec 04 Jan Tunisia / NE Algeria 9 0.05 Common Redstart temperature -11.87 -5.11 0.15 23 Apr 07 May S Norway 10 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Common Redstart temperature -11.78 -9.90 0.13 12 Oct 31 Oct NW Libya 11 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Common Redstart temperature -9.95 -9.53 0.08 21 Feb 01 Jun NE Senegal 12 0.03 Common Redstart temperature -11.12 -17.26 0.15 10 Jul 26 Jul C Sweden 13 0.05 Common Redstart temperature -18.85 -5.70 0.00 23 Mar 24 Apr S Germany / Austria / 14 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Slovenia / Croatia Common Redstart temperature -7.77 -3.49 0.30 13 Mar 03 Jun C Libya 15 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Common Redstart precipitation -7.58 -3.88 0.15 14 Aug 08 Oct coast of Senegal and The 16 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Gambia Common Redstart precipitation -9.59 -13.64 0.15 26 Dec 22 Apr N Morocco / S Spain / 17 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Portugal Common Redstart precipitation -19.65 -7.32 0.00 13 Mar 28 Mar S Norway 18 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Common Redstart precipitation -14.78 -22.39 0.00 14 Mar 11 Apr western Mediterranean coast 19 0.04 and islands Common Redstart precipitation -18.43 -7.92 0.01 05 Dec 24 Dec Germany 20 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Common Redstart precipitation -10.49 -6.27 0.22 13 Jul 10 Aug northern Scandinavia 21 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Common Redstart precipitation -15.48 0.68 0.03 08 Dec 22 Dec Poland 22 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - -18.06 -16.89 0.00 27 Feb 07 Apr UK 23 0.04 Coming From Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -16.52 -9.76 0.00 29 Apr 19 May NW Spain 24 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.69 -2.20 0.00 03 Jun 26 Jun W Algeria 25 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - -13.34 -19.06 0.00 26 Feb 13 May Mali 26 0.06 Coming From Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.53 -14.08 0.01 23 Feb 11 Jun E UK 27 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.00 -7.25 0.30 21 Mar 05 Apr S UK / N France 28 - YES Highly collinear with From Helgoland ID47 Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -9.89 -1.88 0.09 02 Jan 24 Jun S Algeria 29 - YES ΔAICc model with From Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 39
Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - -19.76 -16.67 0.00 26 May 19 Jun NE Spain / SE France 30 0.04 Coming From Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -10.41 -7.87 0.02 10 Jan 15 Apr S Norway 31 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -12.47 -10.46 0.14 22 Mar 06 Apr Netherlands 32 - YES Highly collinear with From Helgoland ID47 Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -15.08 -6.84 0.00 15 Jan 27 Apr W Norway 33 - YES Highly collinear with From Helgoland ID31 Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -22.39 -17.54 0.00 02 May 16 May S Tunisia / E Algeria 34 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -20.03 -6.10 0.00 23 Mar 09 Apr E Algeria / W Libya 35 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -17.81 -16.74 0.00 03 Jan 14 Mar Italy / Croatia / Albania / 36 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greece Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming -21.35 -12.85 0.00 15 Mar 29 Mar N Poland / Baltic states 37 - YES Highly collinear with From Helgoland ID38 Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - -22.97 -18.76 0.00 11 Mar 29 Mar S Poland / Czech Republic / 38 0.04 Coming From Helgoland Slovakia Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -11.63 -4.26 0.05 06 Jan 11 Mar Mauritania 39 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -11.27 -9.14 0.03 29 Apr 13 May Burkina Faso 40 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -18.57 -17.83 0.01 05 Mar 08 Apr UK 41 - YES Highly collinear with To Helgoland ID38 Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -11.13 2.23 0.03 02 Jan 29 Jun C Algeria 42 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -15.41 -15.37 0.00 02 Jan 22 Feb S Algeria 43 0.03 To Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -6.92 0.56 0.24 22 Feb 21 Mar coast of Benin and Togo 44 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -16.62 -13.60 0.00 30 Mar 15 May France 45 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -9.18 -26.14 0.07 05 Feb 15 Jun N Algeria 46 0.07 To Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -20.01 -10.88 0.00 21 Mar 07 Apr N Germany / Denmark 47 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -14.31 -19.57 0.17 26 Feb 23 Mar S Germany / Switzerland 48 0.04 To Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -20.22 -5.46 0.00 21 Mar 10 Apr SE Algeria 49 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -12.90 -7.27 0.07 26 Mar 28 Apr W Libya 50 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland 40
Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -11.52 -4.73 0.13 07 Jun 21 Jun S Libya / N Chad 51 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going -19.43 -13.16 0.00 16 Mar 14 Apr eastern Europe 52 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Willow Warbler temperature -12.47 -13.83 0.06 11 Mar 25 Mar NW Spain 1 0.04 Willow Warbler temperature -14.07 -10.66 0.01 26 Apr 11 May Mauritania 2 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Willow Warbler temperature -20.48 -17.00 0.00 04 Mar 26 Mar NW UK / Ireland 3 0.03 Willow Warbler temperature -11.11 -4.23 0.13 23 Feb 20 Mar Morocco / S Spain / S 4 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Portugal Willow Warbler temperature -14.87 -16.89 0.00 23 Mar 14 May C Mali 5 0.07 Willow Warbler temperature -21.13 -16.26 0.00 03 Mar 26 Mar UK 6 - YES Highly collinear with ID3 Willow Warbler temperature -21.78 -14.66 0.00 07 Apr 11 Jun C Algeria 7 0.04 Willow Warbler temperature -21.59 -12.52 0.00 08 Apr 01 Jul S Algeria 8 - YES Highly collinear with ID7 Willow Warbler temperature -19.80 -12.30 0.00 28 Apr 09 Jun western Mediterranean 9 - YES Highly collinear with coast and islands ID12 Willow Warbler temperature -17.40 -13.09 0.00 05 Mar 27 Mar S Norway 10 - YES Highly collinear with ID3 Willow Warbler temperature -23.73 -34.09 0.00 26 Feb 06 May Netherlands / Belgium / 11 - YES Highly collinear with Germany ID15 Willow Warbler temperature -20.06 -27.64 0.00 27 Mar 09 Jun western Mediterranean coast 12 0.06 and islands Willow Warbler temperature -13.46 -3.59 0.21 21 May 04 Jun Tunisia / NE Algeria 13 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Willow Warbler temperature -16.12 -2.83 0.02 25 Feb 22 Mar N Niger 14 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Willow Warbler temperature -27.37 -41.13 0.00 22 Mar 06 May E Germany / Poland 15 0.07 Willow Warbler temperature -13.75 -9.76 0.06 04 May 18 May Lake Chad / W Chad 16 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Willow Warbler precipitation -15.15 0.68 0.00 28 Nov 01 Jun coast of Senegal and The 17 - YES ΔAICc model with Gambia variable and intercept- only model > -2 Willow Warbler precipitation -18.56 -8.16 0.00 07 Mar 01 Apr Portugal / W Spain 18 - YES Highly collinear with ID22 Willow Warbler precipitation -12.09 -15.30 0.01 04 Feb 14 Mar S Mali / N Ghana 19 0.05 Willow Warbler precipitation -19.71 -7.21 0.00 15 Jul 05 Aug NE Morocco / NW Algeria 20 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Willow Warbler precipitation -10.10 0.18 0.02 18 Oct 13 Dec W Algeria 21 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Willow Warbler precipitation -15.99 -17.81 0.01 23 Feb 25 Mar western Mediterranean coast 22 0.04 and islands Willow Warbler precipitation -12.15 2.09 0.01 11 Mar 04 May E Mali / W Niger 23 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Willow Warbler precipitation -15.09 -7.24 0.15 04 Mar 23 Mar C Norway 24 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Willow Warbler precipitation -11.44 -1.61 0.22 03 Dec 23 Dec NW Libya 25 - YES ΔAICc model with 41
variable and intercept- only model > -2 Willow Warbler precipitation -14.02 1.35 0.00 20 Nov 11 Feb E Niger / W Chad 26 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Willow Warbler precipitation -19.79 -6.17 0.00 19 Oct 19 Apr Albania / Greece 27 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - -11.01 -17.30 0.14 25 Apr 11 May Guinea-Bissau 28 0.03 Coming From Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -12.85 -5.28 0.05 13 Apr 01 May Portugal / NW Spain 29 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -10.68 -14.73 0.15 07 Mar 21 Mar Mauritania 30 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.69 -2.44 0.01 14 Mar 06 Apr UK 31 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - -17.25 -17.04 0.00 22 Feb 06 Jun Mali 32 0.03 Coming From Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.46 -4.98 0.00 16 Jan 20 Jun E UK / Belgium / 33 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Netherlands Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -19.69 -15.65 0.00 13 Apr 06 Jun coast of Algeria and 34 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Balearic islands Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -12.55 -8.76 0.10 09 Feb 21 Mar N Algeria 35 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.61 -2.79 0.00 06 Apr 14 May Sardegna / NE Algeria 36 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.61 -7.36 0.01 19 Mar 14 May S Tunisia 37 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -9.94 1.54 0.08 29 Mar 19 Apr C Libya 38 - YES ΔAICc model with From Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - -24.06 -16.66 0.00 05 Mar 24 Mar E Germany / Poland / 39 0.04 Coming From Helgoland Austria Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -18.80 -12.74 0.00 09 Jan 15 Mar S Italy / Albania / Greece 40 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -11.14 -6.82 0.00 17 Jan 12 Mar W Algeria 41 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -16.41 -9.21 0.00 20 Mar 04 Jun E Mali 42 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -13.78 -9.30 0.00 19 Jan 08 Apr UK 43 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -9.14 -27.32 0.26 06 Apr 14 May NW Algeria 44 0.03 To Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -10.72 2.12 0.00 08 Jan 04 Apr C Algeria 45 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 42
Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -13.31 2.02 0.10 17 Jan 03 Feb coast of Ghana 46 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -19.19 -2.15 0.00 13 Feb 22 May France 47 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -18.27 -50.15 0.00 28 Mar 14 May coast of Algeria and Tunisia 48 0.08 To Helgoland / western Mediterranean islands Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -19.98 -22.30 0.00 05 Mar 23 Mar S Germany / Switzerland 49 0.04 To Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -10.25 -28.62 0.30 17 Apr 06 May NE Nigeria 50 0.05 To Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -9.87 -5.80 0.26 11 Feb 25 Feb SE Niger 51 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -26.47 -8.45 0.00 14 Jan 13 Jun NE Germany / N Poland / S 52 - YES Highly collinear with To Helgoland Sweden ID43 Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -13.17 -4.84 0.13 26 Feb 21 Mar NE Niger / S Libya 53 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -14.49 -10.77 0.00 26 Jan 16 Feb N Libya 54 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -25.34 -6.83 0.00 16 Jan 12 Jun N Poland / Baltic states 55 - YES Highly collinear with To Helgoland ID43 Greater Whitethroat temperature -10.14 2.24 0.15 23 Dec 07 Jan Canary islands 1 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat temperature -14.38 -0.25 0.27 29 Oct 18 Nov W Morocco 2 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat temperature -16.21 -0.33 0.01 22 Dec 11 Jan N Morocco / S Spain / 3 - YES ΔAICc model with Portugal variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat temperature -11.71 -8.75 0.12 22 Jul 05 Aug Mauritania 4 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Greater Whitethroat temperature -18.15 -6.33 0.01 23 Jan 06 Feb UK 5 - YES Highly collinear with ID63 Greater Whitethroat temperature -18.97 -19.85 0.00 05 Apr 25 May Balearic islands / coast of 6 0.05 Algeria / Mediterranean coast of France and Spain Greater Whitethroat temperature -13.26 -1.37 0.12 15 May 30 Jun E Mali 7 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat temperature -23.30 -15.81 0.00 21 Dec 05 Jan N Algeria / Tunisia 8 0.03 Greater Whitethroat temperature -26.16 -19.85 0.00 30 Dec 13 Jan C Algeria 9 0.05 Greater Whitethroat temperature -21.43 -32.05 0.00 27 Mar 23 May Sardegna / Corsica / Italy 10 - YES Highly collinear with ID12 43
Greater Whitethroat temperature -21.80 -16.51 0.00 05 May 28 May Niger 11 - YES Highly collinear with ID14 Greater Whitethroat temperature -25.05 -32.87 0.00 23 Mar 17 May Germany / Belgium / 12 0.07 Netherlands Greater Whitethroat temperature -20.52 -15.89 0.00 17 Mar 17 May Croatia / Slovenia 13 - YES Highly collinear with ID12 Greater Whitethroat temperature -25.19 -23.56 0.00 02 May 31 May W Chad / E Niger 14 0.05 Greater Whitethroat precipitation -9.27 -7.68 0.14 30 Dec 07 Mar Madeira 15 0.03 Greater Whitethroat precipitation -17.45 -14.67 0.00 09 Dec 21 Jan coast of Morocco 16 0.03 Greater Whitethroat precipitation -18.03 -10.60 0.00 14 Dec 04 Apr Portugal / Spain 17 - YES Highly collinear with ID8 Greater Whitethroat precipitation -14.37 -12.18 0.00 09 Dec 10 Feb NE Spain / Balearic islands 18 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Greater Whitethroat precipitation -14.51 -0.53 0.09 07 Jul 04 Aug coast of Algeria 19 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat precipitation -16.75 -6.25 0.00 20 Jul 23 Dec N France / SE UK / Belgium 20 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta / Netherlands / Helgoland Greater Whitethroat precipitation -19.96 -7.68 0.05 04 Mar 19 Mar NW Nigeria 21 - YES Highly collinear with ID62 Greater Whitethroat precipitation -13.09 -12.45 0.02 08 Jan 07 Jun S Norway 22 0.03 Greater Whitethroat precipitation -6.52 -1.76 0.26 05 Mar 19 Mar E Algeria 23 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat precipitation -18.03 -6.77 0.01 10 Dec 24 Dec N Germany 24 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Greater Whitethroat precipitation -17.31 -13.22 0.00 12 Dec 13 May N Italy / Switzerland / 25 0.05 Austria / Slovenia Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -16.51 -5.15 0.00 28 Mar 04 Jun coast of Mauritania 26 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -15.71 -13.59 0.00 05 May 22 May W Mali 27 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -19.59 -6.01 0.00 30 Apr 18 May NW Spain / Portugal 28 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.83 1.71 0.00 15 May 28 Jun N Côte d'Ivoire 29 - YES ΔAICc model with From Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -11.01 -2.42 0.28 08 Apr 05 May UK 30 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -8.81 0.79 0.09 17 Jan 14 Feb Ghana 31 - YES ΔAICc model with From Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.39 -1.19 0.03 01 May 19 May N France / Belgium 32 - YES ΔAICc model with From Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - -18.17 -18.47 0.00 06 Apr 14 May N Algeria / Balearic islands 33 0.04 44
Coming From Helgoland / mediterranean coast of Spain Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - -11.96 -23.77 0.01 20 Feb 09 Apr N Algeria 34 0.06 Coming From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -17.84 -11.30 0.00 09 Jan 26 Apr S Norway 35 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -6.68 -6.88 0.22 08 Jan 15 May coast of Nigeria 36 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -21.25 -4.86 0.00 18 Apr 21 Jun Helgoland / Denmark / N 37 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Germany Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -10.95 -4.81 0.02 10 Apr 06 Jun SE Algeria 38 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -23.22 -17.89 0.00 02 May 16 May S Tunisia / E Algeria 39 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -19.40 -17.18 0.00 09 Jan 09 Feb E Germany / Poland 40 - YES Highly collinear with From Helgoland ID42 Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -15.97 -6.15 0.00 01 Feb 22 Feb Cameroon 41 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - -17.29 -20.10 0.00 10 Jan 27 Feb Sicily / S Italy 42 0.04 Coming From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -12.93 -11.09 0.01 26 Mar 22 Apr N Niger / NW Chad 43 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -18.65 -12.27 0.00 09 Jan 10 Feb S Poland / NW Romania / 44 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Hungary Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming -17.36 -6.04 0.00 14 Jan 21 Feb Greece 45 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -9.69 0.47 0.29 18 May 09 Jun Mauritania 46 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -20.65 -9.86 0.00 04 Jan 15 Feb Guinea 47 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -16.21 -11.79 0.00 08 Mar 29 Mar UK 48 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -12.00 -10.34 0.04 02 Jan 27 Jan NE Spain 49 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -17.91 -11.09 0.00 18 May 03 Jun Côte d'Ivoire / Ghana 50 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -16.77 -9.85 0.00 13 Jan 08 Feb E UK 51 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -23.28 -8.87 0.00 12 Jan 15 Feb C Algeria 52 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -12.16 -4.25 0.28 21 Feb 30 Mar E Mali 53 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -17.32 -3.40 0.00 28 Apr 14 May France 54 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta 45
To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -11.66 -5.83 0.01 31 Mar 03 May S France 55 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -15.94 -18.85 0.00 02 Apr 07 May coast of Algeria / Sardegna 56 0.03 To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -7.56 -1.88 0.15 22 Feb 21 May S Algeria 57 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -27.20 -8.82 0.00 25 Apr 14 May Germany / Belgium / 58 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -16.24 -1.11 0.00 21 Mar 04 Apr SE Algeria 59 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -18.85 -7.36 0.00 22 Apr 29 May S Germany / Austria 60 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -13.64 -6.20 0.30 23 Jan 14 Feb NW Libya 61 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -23.09 -16.24 0.00 28 May 16 Jun Nigeria / N Cameroon 62 0.05 To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -22.42 -8.80 0.00 18 Jan 06 Feb NE Germany / N Poland / S 63 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Sweden Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -12.32 -3.52 0.24 11 Jan 29 Jan S Italy / Sicily 64 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -16.64 -16.58 0.00 12 May 20 Jun Croatia / Bosnia and 65 0.03 To Helgoland Herzigovina Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -16.08 -12.40 0.00 26 Jan 16 Feb N Libya 66 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going -19.94 -4.08 0.00 20 Jan 03 Feb S Poland / Czech Republic / 67 - YES Highly collinear with To Helgoland Slovakia ID63 Garden Warbler temperature -16.62 -16.14 0.00 27 May 10 Jun E Morocco - W Algeria 1 0.03 Garden Warbler temperature -16.92 -12.48 0.00 11 May 07 Jun W Algeria 2 0.03 Garden Warbler temperature -15.99 -19.96 0.00 01 May 05 Jun coast of Algeria 3 - YES Highly collinear with ID21 Garden Warbler temperature -15.55 -27.90 0.00 20 Mar 09 Jun Italy / Corsica / Sardegna / 4 0.08 Sicily Garden Warbler temperature -22.30 -23.79 0.00 10 Apr 06 Jun Lake Chad 5 0.08 Garden Warbler precipitation -15.61 -17.80 0.00 10 Mar 11 Apr S Mali 6 0.09 Garden Warbler precipitation -9.82 0.80 0.18 20 Sep 16 Oct N Mali / S Algeria 7 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Garden Warbler precipitation -8.88 -5.70 0.11 11 Aug 25 Oct Switzerland / NW Italy 8 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Garden Warbler precipitation -8.17 -1.39 0.10 09 Dec 23 Dec W Libya / E Algeria 9 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 46
Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -9.14 1.99 0.28 20 Mar 11 Apr SW Western Sahara 10 - YES ΔAICc model with From Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - -17.05 -9.52 0.00 05 May 08 Jun Senegal / The Gambia 11 0.03 Coming From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - -12.49 -6.44 0.08 09 Apr 25 Apr N Mali 12 0.03 Coming From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.92 -7.74 0.00 09 May 11 Jun C Mali 13 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.10 0.13 0.01 01 May 27 May N UK 14 - YES ΔAICc model with From Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - -13.03 -15.14 0.23 20 May 30 Jun E Spain 15 0.05 Coming From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - -10.25 -12.08 0.16 15 Feb 23 Apr C Algeria 16 0.03 Coming From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - -21.65 -12.36 0.00 09 May 31 May N France / Belgium / 17 0.03 Coming From Helgoland Netherlands Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - -14.85 -23.25 0.24 12 May 04 Jun N Algeria 18 0.06 Coming From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.59 -6.62 0.00 23 May 11 Jun E Mali / W Niger / S Algeria 19 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.34 0.02 0.02 27 Apr 23 May W Norway 20 - YES ΔAICc model with From Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - -17.69 -23.72 0.00 11 Feb 21 Jun E Algeria / S Tunisia 21 0.09 Coming From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -16.45 -10.84 0.00 13 May 04 Jun S Algeria 22 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.98 -6.31 0.00 08 May 08 Jun Helgoland / Denmark / N 23 - YES Highly collinear with From Helgoland Germany ID33 Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.69 -2.30 0.00 22 Mar 27 May S Germany 24 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - -14.09 -8.10 0.07 08 May 28 May N Italy 25 0.03 Coming From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - -9.50 -11.95 0.08 18 Mar 26 Apr N Niger 26 0.04 Coming From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -20.39 -9.96 0.00 28 May 11 Jun coast of Poland 27 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -9.19 -2.19 0.09 31 Jan 30 Mar N Libya 28 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.15 -8.86 0.07 24 May 09 Jun Baltic states 29 - YES Highly collinear with From Helgoland ID27 Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -9.64 2.24 0.10 13 Feb 01 Jun S Portugal / SW Spain 30 - YES ΔAICc model with 47
To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -12.21 2.15 0.01 26 Jan 28 Mar E Mali 31 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -13.25 -9.80 0.05 14 May 30 May coast of Ghana 32 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -17.14 -10.59 0.00 12 May 11 Jun N France / S UK / Belgium / 33 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Netherlands Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -17.09 -1.06 0.00 12 Feb 27 May S France / Balearic islands 34 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -24.40 -56.54 0.00 02 Mar 23 May coast of Algeria and Tunisia 35 0.13 To Helgoland / western Mediterranean islands Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -16.73 -10.22 0.00 20 Apr 11 Jun Denmark / N Germany 36 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -17.10 -3.33 0.00 29 Apr 31 May S Germany / Austria 37 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going -10.13 0.20 0.08 27 Mar 05 May NE Niger 38 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Spotted Flycatcher temperature -13.69 0.38 0.02 11 Apr 25 Apr SW Western Sahara 1 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Spotted Flycatcher temperature -14.57 1.20 0.00 01 Jul 15 May Western Sahara / Morocco 2 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Spotted Flycatcher temperature -14.45 -4.52 0.00 07 Sep 14 Oct S Spain / N Morocco 3 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Spotted Flycatcher temperature -10.20 -7.95 0.12 16 May 30 May western Mediterranean 4 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta coast and islands Spotted Flycatcher temperature -21.66 -31.31 0.00 27 Apr 22 May Netherlands / Belgium / 5 0.08 Germany Spotted Flycatcher temperature -12.56 -8.28 0.00 17 Feb 30 Mar S Niger / N Nigeria 6 0.04 Spotted Flycatcher temperature -12.99 -23.78 0.00 16 Feb 10 Jun N Italy / Corsica 7 0.06 Spotted Flycatcher temperature -14.06 -14.04 0.00 04 Feb 26 Apr N Nigeria 8 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Spotted Flycatcher temperature -16.95 -16.30 0.26 21 May 05 Jun Tunisia / NE Algeria / NW 9 0.03 Libya Spotted Flycatcher temperature -13.67 -26.96 0.00 16 Feb 03 Jun Lake Chad / E Niger / W 10 0.09 Chad Spotted Flycatcher precipitation -11.79 -5.25 0.07 19 Oct 11 Jun Senegal / The Gambia 11 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Spotted Flycatcher precipitation -12.99 -7.49 0.16 12 Apr 01 Jul S Portugal 12 0.04 Spotted Flycatcher precipitation -12.74 -12.63 0.00 22 Sep 13 Oct coast of Liberia and Côte 13 0.04 d'Ivoire 48
Spotted Flycatcher precipitation -16.04 -0.57 0.14 20 Dec 11 Jan N UK 14 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Spotted Flycatcher precipitation -15.65 -2.03 0.00 24 Sep 13 Oct coast of Côte d'Ivoire and 15 0.00 YES Not in top15 of Boruta Ghana Spotted Flycatcher precipitation -6.44 1.72 0.05 21 Sep 05 Oct S Algeria 16 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Spotted Flycatcher precipitation -11.65 -18.60 0.20 27 Oct 06 Mar SE Germany 17 0.04 Spotted Flycatcher precipitation -5.72 1.72 0.26 03 Sep 12 Oct NW Libya 18 - YES ΔAICc model with variable and intercept- only model > -2 Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - -13.37 -7.56 0.00 12 May 31 May Canary islands / Madeira 19 0.03 Coming From Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -9.36 -0.52 0.22 25 Mar 04 Jun coast of Mauritania 20 - YES ΔAICc model with From Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -12.30 -10.30 0.17 29 Apr 01 Jun N Spain 21 0.03 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.12 -6.49 0.00 20 May 01 Jul S Algeria 22 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -29.51 -12.96 0.00 20 Apr 28 May Helgoland / N Germany 23 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -11.86 -5.98 0.24 27 Apr 03 Jun Switzerland / NW Italy / E 24 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland France Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.82 -8.78 0.03 30 Apr 15 May Tunisia 25 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta From Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - -8.68 -12.37 0.24 18 Mar 26 Apr NE Niger 26 0.04 Coming From Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Coming -16.71 -15.77 0.01 24 Apr 14 May Czech Republic / S Poland 27 - YES Highly collinear with From Helgoland ID28 Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - -13.94 -19.07 0.07 25 Apr 22 May Romania 28 0.05 Coming From Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -9.97 -5.26 0.11 23 Apr 19 Jun Canary islands 29 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -15.65 -8.64 0.00 16 May 31 May NW Spain 30 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -13.31 0.66 0.03 06 Jan 13 Mar W Mali 31 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -13.18 1.07 0.02 14 Feb 14 Mar C Mali 32 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -15.33 -1.54 0.00 30 Apr 23 May N UK 33 - YES ΔAICc model with 49
To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -12.57 -6.26 0.02 15 Apr 29 Apr NE Morocco / NW Algeria 34 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -11.16 1.54 0.25 19 Mar 03 Apr W Algeria 35 - YES ΔAICc model with To Helgoland variable and intercept- only model > -2 Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -14.52 -30.56 0.00 26 Mar 06 Jun N Algeria / N Tunisia 36 0.09 To Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -11.89 -6.99 0.03 15 Feb 02 Jun SE France / NW Italy 37 0.01 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -21.33 -7.63 0.00 30 Apr 25 May Germany 38 0.02 YES Not in top15 of Boruta To Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -12.18 -28.98 0.18 22 May 05 Jun NE Nigeria 39 0.05 To Helgoland Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -11.62 -11.50 0.03 14 Jan 01 Feb S Sweden / N Poland / NE 40 0.04 To Helgoland Germany Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going -15.57 -18.51 0.18 07 Jun 30 Jun Croatia 41 0.05 To Helgoland
50
Table S9 Overview of the relative variable importance of the candidate weather signals, calculated using three different methods: (a) the sum of the multi- model AICc weights across all the possible models with maximum four independent variables (1); (b) the boruta method (2); and (c) the game-theory-based LMG metric for variance decomposition in linear models (3, 4). Effects represent the average conditional coefficient calculated over all possible models with a maximum of four independent variables. This table includes only the candidate weather signals that were not removed due to high collinearity with another better performing candidate signal, low performance compared to an intercept-only model, or because they were not in the top 15 of the variable reduction step using the boruta method (see Table S8). The ID values are used consistently throughout all supplementary figures and tables for ease of reference.
Relative Variable Importance Ranks of Relative Variable Importance ΔAICc ΔAICc (compared (compared Window Window Rank of to trend to intercept- Open Close Effect Effect Model Borut Model Mean the Species Climate variable model) only model) Date Date (stand.) (unstand.) Location ID weights LMG a Mean weights LMG Boruta Rank mean European Pied temperature -20.25 -37.08 23 Mar 14 May -1.97 -1.50 Germany 14 0.23 0.11 0.10 0.14 14 15 15 15 15 Flycatcher European Pied Wind - Midnight - Coming -34.19 -40.82 09 Feb 09 Jun 2.14 0.17 Mali 25 0.24 0.10 0.08 0.14 15 14 13 14 14 Flycatcher From Helgoland European Pied temperature -21.33 -23.52 27 Nov 12 Dec -1.39 -0.77 Italy 15 0.18 0.08 0.07 0.11 13 12 10 12 13 Flycatcher European Pied temperature -23.21 -31.23 10 Feb 08 Jun -1.60 -1.06 NW Algeria / NE 8 0.15 0.06 0.09 0.10 12 8 14 11 12 Flycatcher Morocco European Pied Wind - Midnight - Going To -17.33 -36.42 16 Apr 05 May -1.53 -0.09 C Nigeria 53 0.06 0.09 0.08 0.08 11 13 12 12 11 Flycatcher Helgoland European Pied Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.67 -32.87 09 Feb 15 May 1.51 0.05 E Algeria 27 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.06 10 11 8 10 10 Flycatcher From Helgoland European Pied temperature -11.92 -32.77 05 Dec 26 Dec -1.36 -0.29 coast of Côte 6 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.05 9 10 9 9 9 Flycatcher d'Ivoire European Pied temperature -26.56 -30.71 29 Apr 14 May -1.45 -0.16 coast of Algeria 12 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.05 8 9 3 7 8 Flycatcher and Tunisia / Western Mediterranean islands European Pied temperature -23.16 -31.19 01 Apr 21 May -1.06 -0.01 Mauritania 3 0.00 0.06 0.07 0.04 4 6 11 7 7 Flycatcher European Pied Wind - Midnight - Coming -20.40 -24.54 05 Mar 12 Apr -0.93 0.00 W Romania 40 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.04 1 7 2 3 6 Flycatcher From Helgoland European Pied temperature -9.88 -21.85 23 Mar 24 Apr -1.12 -0.06 Coast of Guinea- 1 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.04 7 3 7 6 5 Flycatcher Bissau and Guinea European Pied temperature -14.61 -23.45 25 Feb 10 Apr -1.47 -0.03 Morocco / 2 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.04 5 4 4 4 4 Flycatcher Western Sahara European Pied temperature -23.53 -18.82 05 Apr 07 Jun -1.18 -0.04 C Algeria 10 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.04 6 2 5 4 3 Flycatcher 51
European Pied temperature -5.49 -21.72 19 Jan 18 Feb -0.92 -0.01 SW Central 16 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.03 2 5 1 3 2 Flycatcher African Republic European Pied Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.45 -13.42 26 Jan 26 Feb 0.85 0.00 S Algeria 28 0.00 0.04 0.06 0.03 3 1 6 3 1 Flycatcher From Helgoland Common Wind - Midnight - Going To -9.18 -26.14 05 Feb 15 Jun -2.02 -0.25 N Algeria 46 0.23 0.12 0.10 0.15 15 15 15 15 15 Redstart Helgoland Common precipitation -14.78 -22.39 14 Mar 11 Apr 1.80 0.05 western 19 0.16 0.08 0.06 0.10 14 13 6 11 14 Redstart Mediterranean coast and islands Common Wind - Midnight - Going To -14.31 -19.57 26 Feb 23 Mar 1.67 0.38 S Germany / 48 0.15 0.08 0.06 0.09 13 11 4 9 13 Redstart Helgoland Switzerland Common temperature -14.37 -14.17 21 Dec 04 Jan 1.57 0.38 Tunisia / NE 9 0.13 0.06 0.08 0.09 12 7 12 10 12 Redstart Algeria Common Wind - Midnight - Coming -19.76 -16.67 26 May 19 Jun -1.54 -0.13 NE Spain / SE 30 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 11 10 11 11 11 Redstart From Helgoland France Common Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.34 -19.06 26 Feb 13 May 1.70 0.02 Mali 26 0.02 0.08 0.09 0.06 5 12 14 10 10 Redstart From Helgoland Common temperature -13.94 -18.48 25 Dec 25 Jan 1.57 0.23 SW Algeria 4 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06 10 9 3 7 9 Redstart Common temperature -12.94 -23.30 17 Jun 01 Jul -1.54 -0.26 Canary Islands / 2 0.03 0.09 0.06 0.06 8 14 9 10 8 Redstart Western Sahara Common Wind - Midnight - Coming -18.06 -16.89 27 Feb 07 Apr 1.65 0.06 UK 23 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 9 5 8 7 7 Redstart From Helgoland Common Wind - Midnight - Coming -22.97 -18.76 11 Mar 29 Mar -1.61 -0.04 S Poland / Czech 38 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.05 7 8 7 7 6 Redstart From Helgoland Republic / Slovakia Common Wind - Midnight - Going To -15.41 -15.37 02 Jan 22 Feb 1.38 0.06 S Algeria 43 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.05 6 6 5 6 5 Redstart Helgoland Common temperature -12.27 -17.16 28 Jan 01 Jul -1.12 -0.03 N Spain / S 5 0.00 0.05 0.09 0.05 1 2 13 5 4 Redstart France / western Mediterranean coast and islands Common temperature -11.12 -17.26 10 Jul 26 Jul -1.33 -0.05 C Sweden 13 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.04 4 4 10 6 3 Redstart Common temperature -11.77 -12.68 17 May 31 May -1.37 -0.02 SE Spain / NE 6 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.03 3 3 1 2 2 Redstart Morocco Common temperature -9.95 -9.53 21 Feb 01 Jun 1.19 0.04 NE Senegal 12 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.03 2 1 2 2 1 Redstart Willow Wind - Midnight - Going To -18.27 -50.15 28 Mar 14 May -2.82 -0.72 coast of Algeria 48 0.25 0.15 0.11 0.17 15 15 15 15 15 Warbler Helgoland and Tunisia / western Mediterranean islands Willow temperature -14.87 -16.89 23 Mar 14 May -1.61 -2.02 C Mali 5 0.20 0.06 0.10 0.12 14 9 14 12.3 14 52
Warbler Willow temperature -27.37 -41.13 22 Mar 06 May -1.89 -0.79 E Germany / 15 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.12 12 14 13 13 13 Warbler Poland Willow precipitation -12.09 -15.30 04 Feb 14 Mar 1.46 0.08 S Mali / N 19 0.16 0.09 0.08 0.11 13 13 11 12.3 12 Warbler Ghana Willow Wind - Midnight - Going To -10.25 -28.62 17 Apr 06 May -1.41 -0.06 NE Nigeria 50 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.07 10 11 10 10.3 11 Warbler Helgoland Willow Wind - Midnight - Going To -9.14 -27.32 06 Apr 14 May -1.41 -0.09 NW Algeria 44 0.03 0.09 0.05 0.06 8 12 5 8.3 10 Warbler Helgoland Willow temperature -12.47 -13.83 11 Mar 25 Mar -1.43 -0.50 NW Spain 1 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.06 11 3 4 6 9 Warbler Willow temperature -20.06 -27.64 27 Mar 09 Jun -1.55 -0.12 western 12 0.01 0.07 0.09 0.05 5 10 12 9 8 Warbler Mediterranean coast and islands Willow precipitation -15.99 -17.81 23 Feb 25 Mar 1.32 0.01 western 22 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 9 7 7 7.7 7 Warbler Mediterranean coast and islands Willow temperature -20.48 -17.00 04 Mar 26 Mar -1.46 -0.21 NW UK / Ireland 3 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.04 7 6 3 5.3 6 Warbler Willow Wind - Midnight - Going To -19.98 -22.30 05 Mar 23 Mar 0.87 0.00 S Germany / 49 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.04 2 8 8 6 5 Warbler Helgoland Switzerland Willow temperature -21.78 -14.66 07 Apr 11 Jun -1.19 -0.06 C Algeria 7 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.04 6 5 6 5.7 4 Warbler Willow Wind - Midnight - Coming -24.06 -16.66 05 Mar 24 Mar -1.09 -0.01 E Germany / 39 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.04 4 1 9 4.7 3 Warbler From Helgoland Poland / Austria Willow Wind - Midnight - Coming -11.01 -17.30 25 Apr 11 May 0.93 0.00 Guinea-Bissau 28 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.03 3 4 2 3 2 Warbler From Helgoland Willow Wind - Midnight - Coming -17.25 -17.04 22 Feb 06 Jun 0.72 0.00 Mali 32 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.02 1 2 1 1.3 1 Warbler From Helgoland Greater Wind - Midnight - Coming -11.96 -23.77 20 Feb 09 Apr 1.70 0.42 N Algeria 34 0.24 0.11 0.09 0.15 15 14 14 14.3 15 Whitethroat From Helgoland Greater temperature -25.05 -32.87 23 Mar 17 May -2.08 -1.73 Germany / 12 0.21 0.12 0.10 0.15 14 15 15 14.7 14 Whitethroat Belgium / Netherlands Greater temperature -25.19 -23.56 02 May 31 May 1.45 0.70 W Chad / E 14 0.16 0.09 0.08 0.11 13 12 13 12.7 13 Whitethroat Niger Greater temperature -18.97 -19.85 05 Apr 25 May -1.67 -0.59 Balearic islands / 6 0.05 0.11 0.08 0.08 10 13 10 11 12 Whitethroat coast of Algeria / Mediterranean coast of France and Spain Greater precipitation -17.45 -14.67 09 Dec 21 Jan 1.18 0.02 coast of Morocco 16 0.11 0.05 0.05 0.07 12 5 5 7.3 11 Whitethroat Greater Wind - Midnight - Going To -23.09 -16.24 28 May 16 Jun -1.29 -0.07 Nigeria / N 62 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.07 11 8 11 10 10 53
Whitethroat Helgoland Cameroon Greater temperature -26.16 -19.85 30 Dec 13 Jan 0.99 0.02 C Algeria 9 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.05 4 6 12 7.3 9 Whitethroat Greater Wind - Midnight - Coming -17.29 -20.10 10 Jan 27 Feb -1.03 -0.02 Sicily / S Italy 42 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.05 5 10 6 7 8 Whitethroat From Helgoland Greater Wind - Midnight - Going To -15.94 -18.85 02 Apr 07 May -1.04 -0.02 coast of Algeria / 56 0.01 0.07 0.05 0.04 3 11 4 6 7 Whitethroat Helgoland Sardegna Greater temperature -23.30 -15.81 21 Dec 05 Jan 1.03 0.06 N Algeria / 8 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.04 9 3 7 6.3 6 Whitethroat Tunisia Greater Wind - Midnight - Going To -16.64 -16.58 12 May 20 Jun -1.03 -0.02 Croatia / Bosnia 65 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.04 6 9 1 5.3 5 Whitethroat Helgoland and Herzigovina Greater Wind - Midnight - Coming -18.17 -18.47 06 Apr 14 May 0.73 0.00 N Algeria / 33 0.00 0.05 0.07 0.04 1 7 8 5.3 4 Whitethroat From Helgoland Balearic islands / mediterranean coast of Spain Greater precipitation -13.09 -12.45 08 Jan 07 Jun -1.01 0.00 S Norway 22 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.04 8 4 3 5 3 Whitethroat Greater precipitation -17.31 -13.22 12 Dec 13 May 0.73 0.00 N Italy / 25 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.04 2 2 9 4.3 2 Whitethroat Switzerland / Austria / Slovenia Greater precipitation -9.27 -7.68 30 Dec 07 Mar 0.93 0.00 Madeira 15 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.03 7 1 2 3.3 1 Whitethroat Garden Wind - Midnight - Going To -24.40 -56.54 02 Mar 23 May -2.27 -0.41 coast of Algeria 35 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.22 15 15 15 15 15 Warbler Helgoland and Tunisia / western Mediterranean islands Garden precipitation -15.61 -17.80 10 Mar 11 Apr 1.11 0.11 S Mali 6 0.24 0.08 0.11 0.15 14 12 14 13.3 14 Warbler Garden temperature -22.30 -23.79 10 Apr 06 Jun 1.05 0.79 Lake Chad 5 0.17 0.10 0.09 0.12 13 14 11 12.7 13 Warbler Garden Wind - Midnight - Coming -17.69 -23.72 11 Feb 21 Jun 0.77 0.02 E Algeria / S 21 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.07 10 11 13 11.3 12 Warbler From Helgoland Tunisia Garden Wind - Midnight - Coming -9.50 -11.95 18 Mar 26 Apr 0.82 0.06 N Niger 26 0.09 0.05 0.05 0.06 11 7 8 8.7 11 Warbler From Helgoland Garden temperature -15.55 -27.90 20 Mar 09 Jun -0.33 -0.01 Italy / Corsica / 4 0.00 0.09 0.10 0.06 2 13 12 9 10 Warbler Sardegna / Sicily Garden Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.09 -8.10 08 May 28 May 0.71 0.14 N Italy 25 0.10 0.03 0.04 0.05 12 2 5 6.3 9 Warbler From Helgoland Garden Wind - Midnight - Coming -14.85 -23.25 12 May 04 Jun 0.50 0.01 N Algeria 18 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.05 6 10 10 8.7 8 Warbler From Helgoland Garden Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.03 -15.14 20 May 30 Jun -0.37 0.00 E Spain 15 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.04 5 9 9 7.7 7 Warbler From Helgoland 54
Garden Wind - Midnight - Coming -10.25 -12.08 15 Feb 23 Apr 0.57 0.01 C Algeria 16 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.04 8 8 3 6.3 6 Warbler From Helgoland Garden Wind - Midnight - Coming -21.65 -12.36 09 May 31 May 0.65 0.02 N France / 17 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04 9 5 1 5 5 Warbler From Helgoland Belgium / Netherlands Garden Wind - Midnight - Coming -17.05 -9.52 05 May 08 Jun 0.59 0.03 Senegal / The 11 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.03 7 4 7 6 4 Warbler From Helgoland Gambia Garden temperature -16.62 -16.14 27 May 10 Jun -0.36 0.00 E Morocco - W 1 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.03 3 6 4 4.3 3 Warbler Algeria Garden temperature -16.92 -12.48 11 May 07 Jun -0.03 0.00 W Algeria 2 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.03 1 3 6 3.3 2 Warbler Garden Wind - Midnight - Coming -12.49 -6.44 09 Apr 25 Apr 0.33 0.00 N Mali 12 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 4 1 2 2.3 1 Warbler From Helgoland Spotted Wind - Midnight - Going To -14.52 -30.56 26 Mar 06 Jun -1.44 -0.27 N Algeria / N 36 0.22 0.11 0.11 0.15 14 15 14 14.3 15 Flycatcher Helgoland Tunisia Spotted temperature -21.66 -31.31 27 Apr 22 May -1.36 -0.80 Netherlands / 5 0.21 0.09 0.10 0.14 13 13 13 13 14 Flycatcher Belgium / Germany Spotted precipitation -11.65 -18.60 27 Oct 06 Mar 1.35 0.04 SE Germany 17 0.23 0.10 0.06 0.13 15 14 8 12.3 13 Flycatcher Spotted Wind - Midnight - Coming -8.68 -12.37 18 Mar 26 Apr 1.27 0.24 NE Niger 26 0.21 0.06 0.06 0.11 12 6 7 8.3 12 Flycatcher From Helgoland Spotted temperature -13.67 -26.96 16 Feb 03 Jun 1.41 0.26 Lake Chad / E 10 0.04 0.09 0.11 0.08 11 10 15 12 11 Flycatcher Niger / W Chad Spotted Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.94 -19.07 25 Apr 22 May 1.53 0.06 Romania 28 0.03 0.09 0.07 0.06 10 11 10 10.3 10 Flycatcher From Helgoland Spotted Wind - Midnight - Going To -12.18 -28.98 22 May 05 Jun -1.21 -0.01 NE Nigeria 39 0.01 0.09 0.07 0.06 7 12 11 10 9 Flycatcher Helgoland Spotted precipitation -12.74 -12.63 22 Sep 13 Oct -1.46 -0.01 coast of Liberia 13 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.05 9 8 6 7.7 8 Flycatcher and Côte d'Ivoire Spotted temperature -12.99 -23.78 16 Feb 10 Jun -1.03 -0.02 N Italy / Corsica 7 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.05 5 9 12 8.7 7 Flycatcher Spotted Wind - Midnight - Going To -15.57 -18.51 07 Jun 30 Jun -0.75 0.00 Croatia 41 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.04 3 7 9 6.3 6 Flycatcher Helgoland Spotted temperature -16.95 -16.30 21 May 05 Jun -1.10 -0.04 Tunisia / NE 9 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.03 8 5 1 5 5 Flycatcher Algeria / NW Libya Spotted temperature -12.56 -8.28 17 Feb 30 Mar 0.96 0.02 S Niger / N 6 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.03 6 3 5 5 4 Flycatcher Nigeria Spotted precipitation -12.99 -7.49 12 Apr 01 Jul -0.83 0.00 S Portugal 12 0.00 0.04 0.05 0.03 4 4 3 3.7 3 Flycatcher Spotted Wind - Midnight - Going To -11.62 -11.50 14 Jan 01 Feb 0.68 0.00 S Sweden / N 40 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.03 2 2 4 2.7 2 Flycatcher Helgoland Poland / NE Germany 55
Spotted Wind - Midnight - Coming -13.37 -7.56 12 May 31 May 0.59 0.00 Canary islands / 19 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.02 1 1 2 1.3 1 Flycatcher From Helgoland Madeira
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Table S10 Overview of the identified final weather variables that are likely to affect mean spring passage dates (MSPD) at Helgoland, including the identified time windows and locations. Effects represent the average conditional coefficient calculated over all possible models with the final identified weather variables of each species. The ID values are used consistently throughout all supplementary figures and tables for ease of reference.
Window Effect Effect Location Species Climate variable WO Date WC Date WL Uncertainty (stand.) (unstand.) (including correlated areas) ID European Pied temperature 23 Mar 14 May 52 6% -1.58 -1.31 Germany 14 Flycatcher European Pied Wind - Midnight - Coming From Helgoland 09 Feb 09 Jun 120 15% 1.84 0.15 Mali 25 Flycatcher European Pied temperature 27 Nov 12 Dec 15 12% -1.29 -0.96 Italy 15 Flycatcher European Pied temperature 10 Feb 08 Jun 118 5% -1.38 -1.49 NW Algeria / NE Morocco 8 Flycatcher European Pied Wind - Midnight - Going To Helgoland 16 Apr 05 May 19 14% -1.23 -0.32 C Nigeria 53 Flycatcher Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going To Helgoland 05 Feb 15 Jun 130 58% -1.80 -0.24 N Algeria 46 Common Redstart precipitation 14 Mar 11 Apr 28 29% 1.62 0.07 western Mediterranean coast and islands 19 Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Going To Helgoland 26 Feb 23 Mar 25 60% 1.64 0.61 S Germany / Switzerland 48 Common Redstart temperature 21 Dec 04 Jan 14 57% 1.33 0.61 Tunisia / NE Algeria 9 Common Redstart Wind - Midnight - Coming From Helgoland 26 May 19 Jun 24 2% -1.10 -0.29 NE Spain / SE France 30 Willow Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going To Helgoland 28 Mar 14 May 47 30% -2.51 -0.65 coast of Algeria and Tunisia / western 48 Mediterranean islands Willow Warbler temperature 23 Mar 14 May 52 15% -1.59 -2.46 C Mali 5 Willow Warbler temperature 22 Mar 06 May 45 8% -1.97 -1.52 E Germany / Poland 15 Willow Warbler precipitation 04 Feb 14 Mar 38 48% 1.38 0.12 S Mali / N Ghana 19 Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Coming From Helgoland 20 Feb 09 Apr 48 44% 1.85 0.48 N Algeria 34 Greater Whitethroat temperature 23 Mar 17 May 55 2% -2.31 -2.25 Germany / Belgium / Netherlands 12 Greater Whitethroat temperature 02 May 31 May 29 5% 1.19 0.68 W Chad / E Niger 14 Greater Whitethroat Wind - Midnight - Going To Helgoland 28 May 16 Jun 19 3% -1.02 -0.17 Nigeria / N Cameroon 62 Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Going To Helgoland 02 Mar 23 May 82 14% -2.04 -0.37 coast of Algeria and Tunisia / western 35 Mediterranean islands Garden Warbler precipitation 10 Mar 11 Apr 32 22% 1.05 0.11 S Mali 6 Garden Warbler temperature 10 Apr 06 Jun 57 3% 1.15 1.26 Lake Chad 5 Garden Warbler Wind - Midnight - Coming From Helgoland 11 Feb 21 Jun 130 23% 0.75 0.09 E Algeria / S Tunisia 21 Spotted Flycatcher Wind - Midnight - Going To Helgoland 26 Mar 06 Jun 72 33% -1.20 -0.26 N Algeria / N Tunisia 36 Spotted Flycatcher temperature 27 Apr 22 May 25 13% -1.38 -0.95 Netherlands / Belgium / Germany 5 Spotted Flycatcher precipitation 27 Oct 06 Mar 130 57% 1.19 0.03 SE Germany 17 Spotted Flycatcher temperature 16 Feb 03 Jun 107 15% 1.20 1.40 Lake Chad / E Niger / W Chad 10 57
Table S11 Summary statistics of the adjusted and predictive R2 values obtained when applying the full procedure on two hundred randomizations of each species' spring migration phenology data. „Model Type‟ refers to for which model the values were calculated: „Best4‟ is the model that includes the four weather variables that were identified as being most important; „TopModel‟ is the „best-performing‟ model identified using multi-model AICc comparison of the identified potential final candidates. Min, mean, median, max, sd: minimum, mean, median, maximum, and standard deviation across the randomizations. „Study result‟ refers to the R2 values we obtained for the actual spring migration phenology (see Table 1). Probability of the result was calculated as „1 – the percentile of the „study result‟ value in the distribution of randomization-based values‟ (see Fig. S5 also).
Species Model Type Performance measure min mean median max sd Study Result Probability of Results Common Redstart Best4 adjusted R2 0.00 0.27 0.27 0.55 0.10 0.76 0.00% Common Redstart Best4 Predictive R2 -0.01 0.19 0.19 0.49 0.10 0.71 0.00% Common Redstart TopModel adjusted R2 0.00 0.27 0.27 0.55 0.11 0.76 0.00% Common Redstart TopModel Predictive R2 -0.01 0.20 0.20 0.49 0.10 0.71 0.00% European Pied Flycatcher Best4 adjusted R2 0.00 0.35 0.35 0.63 0.11 0.86 0.00% European Pied Flycatcher Best4 Predictive R2 -0.14 0.27 0.28 0.58 0.12 0.83 0.00% European Pied Flycatcher TopModel adjusted R2 0.00 0.35 0.36 0.63 0.11 0.86 0.00% European Pied Flycatcher TopModel Predictive R2 -0.08 0.29 0.30 0.58 0.11 0.83 0.00% Garden Warbler Best4 adjusted R2 0.00 0.38 0.38 0.65 0.13 0.8 0.00% Garden Warbler Best4 Predictive R2 -0.01 0.31 0.31 0.61 0.14 0.77 0.00% Garden Warbler TopModel adjusted R2 0.00 0.39 0.39 0.65 0.13 0.8 0.00% Garden Warbler TopModel Predictive R R22 -0.01 0.33 0.33 0.61 0.13 0.77 0.00% Common Whitethroat Best4 adjusted R2 0.00 0.34 0.34 0.70 0.12 0.72 0.00% Common Whitethroat Best4 Predictive R2 -0.03 0.27 0.27 0.66 0.13 0.69 0.00% Common Whitethroat TopModel adjusted R2 0.00 0.34 0.35 0.70 0.12 0.72 0.00% Common Whitethroat TopModel Predictive R2 -0.03 0.28 0.29 0.67 0.12 0.69 0.00% Spotted Flycatcher Best4 adjusted R2 0.00 0.31 0.32 0.56 0.12 0.76 0.00% Spotted Flycatcher Best4 Predictive R2 0.00 0.24 0.24 0.52 0.12 0.73 0.00% Spotted Flycatcher TopModel adjusted R2 0.00 0.31 0.31 0.58 0.12 0.76 0.00% Spotted Flycatcher TopModel Predictive R2 0.00 0.25 0.26 0.52 0.12 0.73 0.00% Willow Warbler Best4 adjusted R2 0.06 0.44 0.46 0.73 0.13 0.8 0.00% Willow Warbler Best4 Predictive R2 -0.07 0.37 0.40 0.67 0.14 0.78 0.00% Willow Warbler TopModel adjusted R2 0.06 0.45 0.47 0.73 0.13 0.8 0.00% Willow Warbler TopModel Predictive R2 -0.01 0.39 0.41 0.67 0.14 0.78 0.00%
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Table S12 Contribution of the effect of each weather variable on mean spring passage date (MSPD) to the overall trend in MSPD over the period 1960-2014. Negative values are in italics. IDs are identical to those in Table S10, and Fig. S1 to S4. Coef.: coefficient; SE: standard error. The ID values are used consistently throughout all supplementary figures and tables for ease of reference.
∂MSPD/∂Climate dClimate/dTime Total change ∂MSPD/∂Climate x over 55 years Species Climate variable ID Coef. SE Coef. SE dClimate∕dTime SE (days) European Pied Flycatcher temperature 14 -1.30 0.32 0.04 0.01 -0.05 0.02 -3 headwind 25 0.15 0.03 -0.27 0.10 -0.04 0.02 -2 temperature 15 -0.97 0.26 0.02 0.01 -0.02 0.01 -1 temperature 8 -1.49 0.40 0.02 0.01 -0.03 0.01 -2 tailwind 53 -0.33 0.11 0.14 0.03 -0.05 0.02 -3 Common Redstart tailwind 46 -0.24 0.06 0.35 0.04 -0.08 0.02 -5 precipitation 19 0.07 0.02 -0.53 0.19 -0.04 0.02 -2 tailwind 48 0.61 0.15 -0.05 0.02 -0.03 0.02 -2 temperature 9 0.61 0.19 -0.02 0.02 -0.01 0.01 -1 headwind 30 -0.32 0.12 0.02 0.03 -0.01 0.01 0 Willow Warbler tailwind 48 -0.65 0.13 0.16 0.03 -0.10 0.03 -6 temperature 5 -2.47 0.62 0.01 0.01 -0.03 0.01 -1 temperature 15 -1.52 0.38 0.04 0.01 -0.06 0.02 -3 precipitation 19 0.12 0.03 -0.40 0.08 -0.05 0.02 -3 Greater Whitethroat headwind 34 0.46 0.10 -0.09 0.03 -0.04 0.02 -2 temperature 12 -2.20 0.40 0.02 0.01 -0.04 0.02 -2 temperature 14 0.73 0.37 -0.03 0.01 -0.02 0.01 -1 tailwind 62 -0.21 0.12 0.13 0.03 -0.03 0.02 -1 Garden Warbler tailwind 35 -0.36 0.06 0.24 0.04 -0.08 0.02 -5 precipitation 6 0.10 0.03 -0.18 0.08 -0.02 0.01 -1 temperature 5 1.26 0.32 -0.02 0.01 -0.02 0.01 -1 headwind 21 0.11 0.05 -0.15 0.05 -0.02 0.01 -1 Spotted Flycatcher tailwind 36 -0.26 0.07 0.15 0.03 -0.04 0.01 -2 temperature 5 -0.95 0.22 0.04 0.01 -0.03 0.01 -2 precipitation 17 0.03 0.01 -0.75 0.28 -0.03 0.01 -1 temperature 10 1.40 0.37 -0.02 0.01 -0.03 0.01 -2
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Table S13 Relative contributions of each climate variable to the inter-annual variation and trends in spring migration phenology at Helgoland across all species.
Climate variable Inter-annual variation Trend Contributions temperature 41% 36% precipitation 15% 13% wind (summed) 44% 52% headwind 14% 11% tailwind 30% 41%
Table S14 Assessment of remaining temporal trends after accounting for all of the identified weather influences. ∆AICc is the difference between the AICc of the model including all influencing weather variables only and the model that additionally includes a linear trend, i.e. a „year‟ variable. The „remaining linear trend‟ column is the size of the (unstandardized) partial effect in the full model, and the „only linear trend‟ column is the slope for the trend in a model with a linear trend as the only independent variable. The „Proportion‟ column represents the percentage of the remaining partial temporal trend in relation to the original temporal trend, and was calculated as the remaining linear trend divided by the original temporal trend (i.e. the coefficient from the model with a linear trend as the only independent variable). SE: Standard error.
Remaining linear trend Only linear trend Species ∆AICc Proportion Coefficient SE Coefficient SE European Pied Flycatcher 0.61 -0.03 0.02 -0.21 0.04 14% Common Redstart 2.41 -0.02 0.04 -0.18 0.04 11% Willow Warbler -14.21 -0.12 0.03 -0.29 0.03 41% Common Whitethroat -5.13 -0.07 0.03 -0.18 0.04 39% Garden Warbler -23.42 -0.09 0.02 -0.19 0.02 47% Spotted Flycatcher -3.00 -0.05 0.02 -0.16 0.03 31%
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SI References 1. K. P. Burnham, D. R. Anderson, Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach - 2nd edition (Springer Science+Business Media LLC, 2002) https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2003.11.004. 2. M. B. Kursa, W. R. Rudnicki, Feature Selection with the Boruta Package. J. Stat. Softw. 36, 1–13 (2010). 3. U. Grömping, Variable importance in regression models. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Comput. Stat. 7, 137–152 (2015). 4. U. Grömping, R package relaimpo: relative importance for linear regression. J. Stat. Softw. 17, 139–147 (2006).
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