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Changes in Public Transport Ridership: Implications from Helsinki Tramways Cases

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Changes in Public Transport Ridership: Implications from Helsinki Tramways Cases Sakari Metsälampi Changes in public transport ridership: Implications from Helsinki tramways cases Thesis submitted for examination for the degree of Master of Science in Technology Espoo 6.7.2020 Supervisor/advisor: Assistant Professor Miloš Mladenović Aalto University, P.O. BOX 11000, 00076 AALTO www.aalto.fi Abstract of master's thesis Author Sakari Metsälampi Title of thesis Changes in public transport ridership: Implications from Helsinki tramways cases Master programme Spatial Planning and Transportation Code ENG26 Engineering Thesis supervisor Assistant Professor Miloš Mladenović Thesis advisor Assistant Professor Miloš Mladenović Date 06.07.2020 Number of pages 83 + 8 Language English Abstract The constitution of ridership has been the focus of extensive transit research. Studies on the subject range from empirical model-driven, statistical analyses to literature reviews, case studies and behavioral research. While, most studies tend to focus on statistical mod- eling establishing correlations, there is an increasing demand for elaboration and local analyses via case studies. Understanding elements of ridership creation is essential for cities aiming for sustaina- bility as is the case with Helsinki, the capital of Finland. The city’s most recent master plan strives for greener, urban mixed land use and Helsinki’s tramways are key to the implementation of said master plan. The tramways are on a threshold of a great expan- sion, as many light rail and city tramway projects are beginning to be realized. This surge has resulted in many recent theses on tramways in Finland – along the growing interest in the transport mode. This thesis approaches the topical question via two case studies from the Helsinki’s tram- ways. The first case follows the evolution of the network and ridership, culminating in the most recent overhaul, the RAILI network, applied in August of 2017, and its effects. The first case study allows for analysis of ridership changes in a wider context and in terms of network topology and service provided. The approach focuses on service supply, the num- ber of kilometers and hours operated and their influence on ridership. The other case is centered around the impact of Hämeentie street renovation, which transformed the line formation and narrowed the tramways’ reach in the eastern inner-city. The sudden change enabled a review of changing passenger behavior patterns on a more focused level. The data utilized is collected through automatic door counters (ADCs), that are installed in HKL operated trams. The passenger data is mirrored to operational performance indi- cators. The findings point to a straight positive relation between ridership and network for- mation; service quantity and quality. Both case studies confirmed, that ridership corre- lates with service frequency and the number of non-transfer destinations available. The increases in boardings brought about by RAILI are focused on network sections where tram services increased. The decreases can be located to sections, where tram services have been reduced – the most drastic decreases can be paired where the number of non- transfer destinations were cut. Keywords Ridership, Patronage, Tramways, Public transport, Case study, Helsinki Aalto-yliopisto, PL 11000, 00076 AALTO www.aalto.fi Diplomityön tiivistelmä Tekijä Sakari Metsälampi Työn nimi Muutoksia matkustajamäärissä: 2 tapaustutkimusta Helsingin raitioliiken- teestä Maisteriohjelma: Spatial Planning and Transportation Koodi ENG26 Engineering Työn valvoja Miloš Mladenović Työn ohjaaja Miloš Mladenović Päivämäärä 06.07.2020 Sivumäärä 83 +8 Kieli Englanti Tiivistelmä Joukkoliikenteen matkustajamääriä sekä niihin vaikuttavia tekijöitä on tutkittu laajalti. Tutkimukset vaihtelevat tilastollisista mallinnuksista kirjallisuuskatsauksiin, tapaustutki- muksiin sekä käyttäytymistieteellisiin tarkasteluihin. Valtaosan tutkimuksista keskitty- essä tilastollisiin mallinnusanalyyseihin nousee esiin tarve jalkauttaa tutkimustuloksia ja syventää niitä paikallisilla tapaustutkimuksilla. Matkustajamääriin vaikuttavien tekijöiden ymmärtäminen on keskeistä Helsingin kaltai- sille kaupungeille, jotka pyrkivät kestävään kehitykseen. Helsingin uusi yleiskaava kurot- taa kohti vihreämpää sekoittunutta maankäyttöä, jossa laajenevalla raitiotieverkostolla on keskeinen rooli. Helsingin raitioliikenteen verkosto onkin suuren laajentumisen kynnyk- sellä, kun moni uusi raitiotiehanke siirtyy suunnittelupöydiltä toteutukseen lähivuosina. Raitioteiden kasvava rooli näkyy myös viime vuosina aihetta eri näkökulmista käsittele- vien korkeakoulututkintojen lopputöiden määrän lisääntymisenä. Tämä tutkielma lähestyy kysymystä kahden Helsingin raitioliikennettä käsittelevän ta- paustutkimuksen kautta. Ensimmäinen seuraa raitiolinjaston ja matkustajamäärien kehi- tystä sekä uuden vuoden 2017 elokuussa käyttöönotetun raitiolinjaston (RAILI) vaikutuk- sia. Tutkimus mahdollistaa matkustajamääräkehityksen tarkastelun laajemman aikaper- spektiivin kautta sekä suunniteltujen palvelutasomuutosten vaikutusten paikantamisen. Toinen tapaustutkimus käsittelee Hämeentien ja Sörnäisten metroaseman perusparan- nuksen alta väistyneeseen raitiolinjastoon kohdistunutta matkustajakatoa itäisessä kan- takaupungissa. Äkillinen linjastomuutos tarjoaa mahdollisuuden tutkia muuttuneita mat- kustustottumuksia. Tutkimuksen pohjana käytetty matkustajamäärädata on kerätty osaan raitiovaunuista asennettujen automaattisten ovilaskurien avulla. Matkustajamääriä ver- rataan keskenään liikennöinnin keskeisten tunnuslukujen kautta. Tutkimustulokset viittaavat matkustajamäärien ja linjaston määrällisen ja laadullisen pal- velutason väliseen vaikutussuhteeseen. Molemmat tapaustutkimukset vahvistivat, että matkustajamäärämuutokset korreloivat suoraan muutoksiin joukkoliikenteen vuorovä- leissä sekä vaihdottomien määränpäiden lukumäärissä. Uuden RAILI-linjaston käyttöön- oton myötä syntynyt matkustajamäärän kasvu sijoittuu rataosuuksille, joissa raitioliiken- teen tarjonta parani muutoksen myötä. Matkustajamäärien lasku paikantuu linjaosuuk- sille, joilla palvelutasoa heikennettiin. Suurimmat matkustajakadot sijoittuvat linjaosuuk- sille, joilla suorien yhteyksien määrä väheni. Avainsanat Matkustajamäärät, Raitioliikenne, Tapaustutkimus, Helsinki 3 Preface This thesis combines my interests and profession in a seamless whole. Therefore, it is not entirely incorrect to refer to it as a lovechild – however, as with everything – the other side of the “parenting” raised its head at times during the process. In the end, the thesis progressed swiftly once the idea behind the means and form began to take shape. As I’m writing this in early July 2020, Helsinki’s public transport services are beginning to normalize after the initial shock caused by the corona pandemic – at least for the time being. How this ordeal will ultimately shape the upcoming years of tram services in the city remains to be seen. As THE future is uncertain, this thesis opens a window to the past, and tries to offer implications for A future. * * * I would like to appoint special thanks to my thesis supervisor and advisor Miloš Mlade- nović who proved great patience in supporting my last efforts on the way to the diploma. I would also like to thank my (non-thesis) supervisor Virpi Ojala (also Jouni!), who, by periodically reminding me of my then-still-to-come graduation, didn’t leave any room for me to forget. A place in my heart is reserved for my Seniorikerho peers and the (almost) millions of moments spent under the canopy of Raksa – thank you Jaakko and Mika! My colleagues in HSL’s Ratikkatiimi – Alexandra, Jami, Joel, Johanna and Teuvo – all deserve my gratitude as their contributions allowed for me to take the needed time off to work part-time and finish my studies. Natalia B. of HSL’s Traffic surveys group should also be thanked for helping me gather the ridership data. Finally, I want to thank Eeva who helped me dearly throughout these months – from proofreading to cheering! Cheers! Helsinki 6.7.2020 L. V. Sakari Metsälampi 4 6 Contents Abstract Tiivistelmä Preface Contents........................................................................................................................ 6 List of Figures ............................................................................................................... 7 List of Tables ................................................................................................................ 8 1 Introduction........................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Helsinki region’s public transit network formation, prospects and planning .... 9 1.2 Trams in Helsinki – then and tomorrow ........................................................ 11 1.3 The aim of this exploration ........................................................................... 14 2 Background – Explanations and predictions ........................................................ 15 2.1 The dichotomies of transit ridership research ................................................ 16 2.1.1 Perspectives: Micro and Macro ............................................................ 16 2.1.2 Analyses: Descriptive and causal ......................................................... 16 2.1.3 Factors: External and internal............................................................... 17 2.2 The main determinants of transit ridership constitution ................................. 19 2.2.1 External factors – land use,
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