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Readings in European Security Volume 5 READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY VOLUME 5 READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY VOLUME 5 CHAIRMAN: FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG EDITOR: MICHAEL EMERSON CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES BRUSSELS INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES LONDON GENEVA CENTRE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC CONTROL OF ARMED FORCES GENEVA GENEVA CENTRE FOR SECURITY POLICY GENEVA This fifth volume of Readings in European Security contains the papers commissioned for presentation and discussion at the meetings of the European Security Forum (ESF) in the period from July 2007 to March 2009. They have been previously published in the European Security Forum Working Paper series, Nos. 26-31. We gratefully acknowledge financial support received for the European Security Forum, from the Compagnia di San Paolo, DCAF, NATO, the Open Society Institute and the US Mission to the EU and the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. ISBN-13: 978-92-9079-828-6 © Copyright 2009, Centre for European Policy Studies, International Institute for Security Studies, Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces & Geneva Centre for Security Policy. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies, the International Institute for Security Studies or the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces. CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR GENEVA EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC CENTRE FOR POLICY STRATEGIC CONTROL OF SECURITY STUDIES STUDIES ARMED FORCES POLICY Place du Congrès 1 Arundel House Rue de Chantepoulet 11, P.O. Box 1360 7 bis, Avenue de la Paix B-1000 Brussels 13-15 Arundel Street, Temple 1211 Geneva 1 CH – 1211 Geneva 1 Tel: +32 (0) 2 229 39 11 Place Switzerland Tel: + 41 (0) 22 906 1600 Fax: +32 (0) 2 219 41 51 London WC2R 3DX Tel.: +41 (22) 741 77 00 Fax: + 41 (0) 22 906 1649 www.ceps.eu Tel. +44 (0) 20 7379 7676 Fax: +41 (22) 741 77 05 www.gcsp.ch E-mail: [email protected] Fax: +44 (0) 20 7836 3108 www.dcaf.ch E-mail: [email protected] www.iiss.org E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] CONTRIBUTORS JANUSZ BUGAJSKI BRUNO COPPIETERS MICHAEL EMERSON DANIEL GROS DANIEL HAMILTON FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG ROSEMARY HOLLIS RADHA KUMAR FYODOR LUKYANOV ANDREY S. MAKARYCHEV JØRGEN MORTENSEN VITALY NAUMKIN ALEXANDER PIKAYEV BRUCE RIEDEL BRAD SETSER WALTER SLOCOMBE OLIVER THRÄNERT NATHALIE TOCCI DMITRI TRENIN ALEXEI D. VOSKRESSENSKI BRANTLY WOMACK LANXIN XIANG RICHARD YOUNGS ORGANISERS OF THE EUROPEAN SECURITY FORUM The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute founded in Brussels in 1983, with the aim of producing sound policy research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe. Website: http://www.ceps.eu The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), founded in London in 1958, is the leading international and independent organisation for the study of military strategy, arms control, regional security and conflict resolution. Website: http://www. www.iiss.org The Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) promotes good governance and reform of the security sector, conducts research on good practices, encourages the development of appropriate norms at the national and international levels, makes policy recommendations and provides in-country advice and assistance programmes. Website: http://www. www.dcaf.ch The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) is an international foundation established in 1995 to “promote the building and maintenance of peace, security and stability”. The GCSP's core activity is the provision of expert training in comprehensive international peace and security policy for mid-career diplomats, military officers, and civil servants from foreign, defence, and other relevant ministries and international organisations. Website: http://www.gcsp.ch CONTENTS Introduction............................................................................................................1 FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG & MICHAEL EMERSON Between Baghdad, Tehran, Riyadh and Jerusalem: Is there a way for the Greater Middle East? Chairman’s Summing-up......................................................................................6 MICHAEL EMERSON Competing Agendas and No Overall Winners ..................................................9 ROSEMARY HOLLIS A View from Russia .............................................................................................20 VITALY NAUMKIN The Return of the Knights ...................................................................................27 BRUCE RIEDEL Does Europe Need a New Missile Defence System? Chairman’s Summing-up....................................................................................43 FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG The US-Proposed European Missile Defence: An American Perspective....48 WALTER SLOCOMBE Europe’s Need for a Damage-Limitation Option.............................................62 OLIVER THRÄNERT Russia and Missile Defences ...............................................................................78 ALEXANDER PIKAYEV What is ‘just’ secession? (Is Kosovo unique?) Chairman’s Summing-up ....................................................................................92 MICHAEL EMERSON The Recognition of Kosovo: Exceptional but not Unique...............................96 BRUNO COPPIETERS Kosovo’s Independence: Practicalities, Precedents and Power Politics .....105 JANUSZ BUGAJSKI The Independence of Kosovo and its Implications........................................115 DMITRI TRENIN What prospects for normative foreign policy in a multipolar world? Chairman’s Summing-up ..................................................................................121 FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG When and why does the EU act as a normative power in its neighbourhood?..................................................................................................125 NATHALIE TOCCI The United States: A Normative Power? ........................................................135 DANIEL HAMILTON In Quest of Political Subjectivity: Russia’s ‘Normative Offensive’ and the Triple Politicisation of Norms...........................................................................144 ANDREY S. MAKARYCHEV There is No Such Thing as a Normative Chinese model ..............................155 LANXIN XIANG India as a Foreign Policy Actor – Normative Redux .....................................162 RADHA KUMAR The Rise of China: Policies of the EU, Russia and the US The EU and the Rise of China...........................................................................173 DANIEL GROS Washington Tea Parties: Managing Problems and Imagining Solutions in US China Policy ..................................................................................................184 BRANTLY WOMACK Variants of Russia’s Policy towards the Rise of China..................................190 ALEXEI D. VOSKRESSENSKI The Strategic Consequences of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis Chairman’s Summing-up..................................................................................198 MICHAEL EMERSON Strategic Implications of the Financial Crisis .................................................201 BRAD SETSER How will the financial crisis affect EU foreign policy? .................................218 RICHARD YOUNGS Russia and World Recession.............................................................................227 FYODOR LUKYANOV The Lessons for China........................................................................................238 LANXIN XIANG The Social Consequences of the Economic Crisis ..........................................244 JØRGEN MORTENSEN INTRODUCTION his fifth volume of Readings in European Security is published as the world enters its first global economic crisis in 70 years. The sudden T onset of this defining moment in our history colours the issues we deal with in this volume – although the last session of the European Security Forum, “Policies of EU, Russia, and US towards the rise of China” held on 24 October 2008, already took into account the first consequences of the world financial crisis, if not yet of the subsequent economic recession. Therefore, in this introduction, an attempt will be made to address the issues covered in the corresponding sessions of the ESF in the light of the ongoing global crisis. The theme “Between Baghdad, Tehran, Riyadh and Jerusalem: Is there a way for the greater Middle East”, was dealt with on 18 June 2007. The sense of desperation that characterised at least part of the proceedings would probably not be fundamentally recast with the benefit of two years’ hindsight. No doubt, there has been some good news in Iraq in the course of 2008: the isolation of al-Qaida caught between the politically decisive alliance of the ‘Sunni Awakening’ with the US forces on the one hand, and the military effectiveness of the ‘surge’ on the other hand has led to a modicum of order in Iraq. Furthermore, bad news concerning Iran has not – or not yet – loomed in the form of the bombing of Iran or the acquisition of the ‘bomb’ by Iran. Alas, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has been further set back, notably with the political and ideological fracture of the Occupied Territories into two distinct and opposed Palestinian entities. The precipitous fall of oil prices – from $147 a barrel in mid-2008 to less
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