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Abyei Sudan: Baseline Study Minatinaa Fi Tamasokona

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Abyei Sudan: Baseline Study Minatinaa Fi Tamasokona AMIET/AL-NEAM MARKET - ABYEI SUDAN: BASELINE STUDY MINATINAA FI TAMASOKONA STRENGTHENING NONVIOLENCE AS A STRATEGY FOR PEACEBUILDING AND PROMOTING SOCIAL COHESION IN THE ABYEI AREA FEBRUARY 2020 CONTACT: Entisar Abdelsadig Rebecca Besant Country Director, Sudan Regional Director, East and Central Africa Search for Common Ground Search for Common Ground [email protected] [email protected] Baseline Study | February 2020 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 3 ASSESSMENT OBJECTIVES 3 METHODOLOGY 4 Community Survey 4 Focus Group Discussions 4 Key Informant Interviews 4 Limitations 5 THE ABYEI CONTEXT 5 The View from Juba 5 The View from Khartoum 6 The View from Abyei 8 Amiet/Al-Neam Market Case Study 11 FIELD RESEARCH FINDINGS 12 Conflict Dynamics 12 Conflict Resolution Mechanisms and Actors 13 Conflict Sensitivity of Peacebuilding Efforts 14 RECOMMENDATIONS 14 ANNEXES 16 Baseline Study | February 2020 3 INTRODUCTION Nearly a decade after independence, Juba and Khartoum are no closer to a resolution on the disputed Abyei region. Political negotiations on Abyei have stalled and high level mechanisms and grassroots institutions that were created to address the dispute have proven ineffective. They have either stagnated or failed to disentangle local antagonisms over land and belonging from the machinations of authorities in Juba and Khartoum. As a result, the conflict in Abyei persists, while domestic challenges in Sudan and South Sudan have taken priority. In looking back at the many clashes in Abyei over the past decade, the killing of the Ngok Dinka paramount chief in 2013 remains the watershed moment that ruptured relations between the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya communities. Juba and Khartoum’s future policies towards Abyei, however, are likely to be shaped not only by this history but also by the evolving political and economic landscape in both countries, as well as local dynamics. Sudan’s transition to democracy in 2019 and the gradual, albeit somewhat precarious, implementation of a peace agreement in South Sudan have created a rare window of opportunity to stabilize the region. Similarly, confidence-building measures at the grassroots level, such as the creation of the Amiet/Al-Neam shared market in 2016, have raised hopes for an improved environment. But both countries need to overcome major internal hurdles and community level trust issues in order to bring lasting peace to Abyei. This rapid conflict assessment highlights the reality on the ground, as well as in the broader region. It takes stock of the major stakeholders in the Abyei conflict, considering their interests and their abilities to foster peace. This assessment traces the origins of the Abyei conflict and provides insight into current dynamics. Assessment Objectives Search for Common Ground (Search), in partnership with Badya Centre for Integrated Development Services (Badya), is implementing the project “Minatinaa fi Tamasokona (Strong in Our Social Cohesion): Strengthening Nonviolence as a Strategy for Peacebuilding and Promoting Social Cohesion in the Abyei Area” with generous support from the US Department of State, Bureau of African Affairs. This is an 18-month project with the overall goal to advance inclusive collaboration on conflict transformation, human security issues, and socioeconomic development between Misseriya and Ngok Dinka communities in Abyei. To support the overall objective of the project and deepen our understanding of conflict drivers in Abyei, Search contracted an external consultant to conduct an assessment with the following objectives: ~ Collect baseline values for the project indicators in the targeted locations ~ Build on understanding of key conflict trends in the area, while mapping existing conflict dispute mechanisms ~ Identify potential connectors and dividers supporting and undermining peace among the Misseriya and Ngok Dinka ~ Assess the capacity of the program to ensure “Do No Harm” Baseline Study | February 2020 4 METHODOLOGY The assessment team used a combination of open source materials, key informant interviews, qualitative focus group discussions, and a community survey of 401 individuals of different ages and ethnicities in order to capture a comprehensive, diverse set of opinions and perspectives. Field research was carried out in Juba, Kuajok, Khartoum, Dair Junubi, Amiet/Al-Neam, Diffra, Fif, Quli, Misiri, and Makinis, among other locations in Sudan, South Sudan, and Abyei.1 COLLECTION METHOD TARGET PARTICIPANTS SAMPLE SIZE Community survey Community members 401 respondents Focus group discussions Community members 100 people (19 groups) Joint community peace committee Focus group discussions 22 (JCPC) representatives Key informant interviews (field) Local authorities, JCPC representatives 18 Key informant interview (remote) INGO/IO representatives 10 Community Survey Survey data was collected in December 2019 and January 2020 in several high-traffic areas and markets. Overall, the research team surveyed 401 respondents in Abyei. Responses were collected in the Amiet/Al- Neam Market area (48%), Da’ir Junubi (24%), Makinis (13%), and a few other localities of southern Sudan (15%). The sample skewed largely male (61%, 39% female), which is likely due to data collection needing to be done in busy, public areas which tend to be male dominated. The sample distribution also skewed young, with the bulk of the respondents under the age of 40. The majority (60%) of respondents worked in farming and petty trade. Most respondents were married (62%), while a minority were single (36%) or divorced (2%). The sample primarily consisted of people who identified as Ngok Dinka (47%) and Misseriya (44%). Respondents from other groups, such as Nuer and Zaghawa, constituted 10% of the total sample. Focus Group Discussions Focus groups reached out to community members in order to gain a more detailed, nuanced understanding of the conflict in Abyei. Separate FGDs were conducted for the Joint Community Peace Committee (JCPC) members to collect indicator data and to build on the understanding of their roles in the region. Key Informant Interviews Key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted with local authorities and members of the JCPCs between December 2019 and January 2020. From July 2019 into the early stages of collecting field data, KIIs were 1 Additional details on the questionnaire and demographics may be found in Annex 2. Baseline Study | February 2020 5 conducted remotely with stakeholders from the international community, including INGOs and UNISFA, who shared their thoughts on the conflict and the challenges of working in Abyei. KIIs also involved representatives from the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya communities and experts working in the region. Limitations This assessment has several methodological limitations. First, the onset of the rainy season, which limits transportation, and sporadic violent attacks in the target areas delayed field data collection. These delays created a gap between the initial open-source review and the collection of field data such as the KIIs, the community survey, and FGDs. Therefore, these research findings should be considered in light of this dynamic context and a timeline that was punctuated by episodic violence. For instance, the community survey was conducted just after the killing of three Misseriya in the Amiet/Al-Neam Market area, but before an attack that killed over 15 Ngok Dinka in a nearby village. THE ABYEI CONTEXT The View from Juba South Sudan’s engagement in Abyei cuts two ways. On the one hand, any open conversation on Abyei could risk putting the spotlight back on South Sudan’s border challenges and may come as a distraction when its government is trying to convince the international community that it is on a path towards stability. On the other hand, Abyei also offers South Sudan the opportunity to leverage an international border dispute – using force and a militarized response – to strengthen their regional position at a time of economic distress. Domestically, South Sudan is in the middle of a complex peace process, which only just resulted in a tentative peace deal, between an incumbent government led by President Salva Kiir and an opposition under ex-First Vice President Riek Machar. Following a ceasefire in 2018 and an extended pre-transitional phase under the framework of the Revised Agreement on Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), the warring parties launched a security sector reform (SSR) process that would, in principle, lead to the creation of a national unified army. Successfully integrating forces that have historically aligned with Kiir and Machar would require a decrease in the overall number of armed forces in the country. There has been enormous pressure on both men to participate in an ongoing cantonment and training exercise that paves the way for the assembly, registration, and vetting of forces. Most armed groups and commanders who sided with Machar have returned to the country, from their bases across the border in Sudan, to join this process. Meanwhile, some reports suggest that the government has been recruiting in Warrap, a state that borders Abyei, in order to boost its ranks.2 Despite what appear to be positive yet slow steps towards peace, there are indications that the incumbent government in Juba has been stalling implementation of the peace process. Therefore, any future failure of the incipient peace deal would likely be due to the government’s reluctance, rather than the difficulty of implementing complex reforms. The looting
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