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SPECIAL WORLD SUMMIT EDITION SCIENCE/ENVIRONMENT W with a Foreword by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan State of the World 2002 Worldwatch A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society In preparation for the World Summit on Sustainable Development in September 2002 in Johannesburg, South Africa, State of the World 2002 evaluates what has been achieved StateState ofof since the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio. Ten years ago, the leaders of the world produced a plan State of the 2002 World to begin creating a sustainable global economy, one that meets human needs while pro- tecting and restoring the natural environment. How much progress has the world made toward that goal? With State of the World 2002 as your guide, you will learn about the problems facing the delegates in Johannesburg as they try to answer this question—from today’s severe thethe WorldWorld inequalities of wealth and income (1.2 billion people live on $1 a day or less) to environ- mental threats such as climate change, growing numbers of tourists in fragile areas, and the proliferation of toxic chemicals. The authors also shed light on the possibilities for change and how existing technolo- gies and resources can help solve many of our most pressing problems. Using renewables 20022002 like wind power, the energy economy can be converted from oil to hydrogen. Poor farmers can grow more food by taking advantage of “free” biological services, like nitrogen-fixing plants and beneficial insects. And women can have fewer children when they have a chance to get an education and to act on their own decisions on when to have children. Christopher Flavin State of the World 2002 spells out priorities for the Johannesburg Summit in seven key Hilary French areas: agriculture, energy policy and climate change, chemicals, international tourism, pop- Gary Gardner ulation growth, resource-based conflicts, and global governance. Decisions made today can make all the difference in our efforts to build a more stable and secure world in the future. Seth Dunn NNN Robert Engelman State of the World is the flagship publication of the Worldwatch Institute’s highly Brian Halweil respected interdisciplinary research team. Additional information about Worldwatch publi- cations can be found on the Institute’s Web site at www.worldwatch.org. Lisa Mastny Anne Platt McGinn State of the World® Worldwatch Institute® Danielle Nierenberg Cover photograph: © 1990 Tom Van Sant /The Stock Market Michael Renner Cover design by Elizabeth Doherty Linda Starke USA $15.95 Canada $23.50 B NORTON b www.wwnorton.com THE WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE www.worldwatch.org State of the World 2002 Other Norton/Worldwatch Books State of the World 1984 through 2001 (an annual report on progress toward a sustainable society) Vital Signs 1992 through 2001 (an annual report on the trends that are shaping our future) Saving the Planet Power Surge Life Out of Bounds Lester R. Brown Christopher Flavin Chris Bright Christopher Flavin Nicholas Lenssen Sandra Postel Beyond Malthus Who Will Feed China? Lester R. Brown How Much is Enough? Lester R. Brown Gary Gardner Alan Thein Durning Brian Halweil Tough Choices Last Oasis Lester R. Brown Pillar of Sand Sandra Postel Sandra Postel Fighting for Survival Full House Michael Renner Vanishing Borders Lester R. Brown Hilary French Hal Kane The Natural Wealth of Nations David Malin Roodman State of the World 2002 A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society Foreword by Kofi A. Annan Secretary-General, United Nations Christopher Flavin Hilary French Gary Gardner Seth Dunn Robert Engelman Brian Halweil Lisa Mastny Anne Platt McGinn Danielle Nierenberg Michael Renner Linda Starke, Editor W . W . NORTON & COMPANY NEW YORK LONDON Copyright © 2002 by Worldwatch Institute All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. The STATEOFTHEWORLD and WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE trademarks are registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Worldwatch Institute; of its directors, officers, or staff; or of its funders. The text of this book is composed in Galliard, with the display set in Franklin Gothic and Gill Sans. Book design by Elizabeth Doherty; composition by Worldwatch Institute; manufacturing by the Haddon Craftsmen, Inc. First Edition ISBN 0-393-05053-X ISBN 0-393-32279-3 (pbk) W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10110 www.wwnorton.com W. W. Norton & Company Ltd., Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, London W1T 3QT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 This book is printed on recycled paper. Worldwatch Institute Board of Directors Øystein Dahle Cathy Crain Scott McVay Chairman UNITED STATES UNITED STATES NORWAY James Dehlsen Larry Minear Andrew Rice UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Secretary Christopher Flavin Izaak van Melle UNITED STATES UNITED STATES THE NETHERLANDS Thomas Crain Wren Wirth Treasurer Lynne Gallagher UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Adam Albright Hazel Henderson Emeritus: Orville L. Freeman UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Lester R. Brown Hunter Lewis Abderrahman Khene UNITED STATES UNITED STATES ALGERIA Worldwatch Institute Staff Janet N. Abramovitz Hilary French Elizabeth A. Nolan Ed Ayres Gary Gardner Kevin Parker Richard Bell Joseph Gravely Mary Redfern Chris Bright Adrianne Greenlees Michael Renner Lori A. Brown Jonathan Guzman David Malin Roodman Niki Clark Brian Halweil Curtis Runyan Suzanne Clift Sharon Lapier Payal Sampat Elizabeth Doherty Lisa Mastny Patrick E. Settle Seth Dunn Anne Platt McGinn Molly O. Sheehan Barbara Fallin Leanne Mitchell Denise Warden Christopher Flavin Danielle Nierenberg Worldwatch Institute Management Team Christopher Flavin Adrianne Greenlees Ed Ayres President Vice President, Development Editorial Director Richard Bell Elizabeth A. Nolan Barbara Fallin Vice President, Communica- Vice President, Business Director of Finance and tions Development Administration Gary Gardner Director of Research Acknowledgments This nineteenth edition of State of the In addition, we are indebted to the Insti- World draws on the dedication and hard tute’s individual donors, including the work of everyone on the Worldwatch staff. 1,300+ Friends of Worldwatch who, Backed by the generous support of funders through their deep commitment to the and friends, the Institute’s researchers, Institute, are the best multipliers of our writers, editors, communications special- vision for a more sustainable world. We are ists, and administrative staff have our many indebted, as well, to the Worldwatch Coun- thanks for working to complete this year’s cil of Sponsors—Tom and Cathy Crain, review of planetary health. James and Deanna Dehlsen, Roger and We begin by acknowledging the founda- Vicki Sant, and Eckart Wintzen—who have tion community, whose faithful backing sus- consistently showed their confidence and tains and encourages the Institute’s work. support of our work with donations of The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur $50,000 or more. Foundation awarded funds specifically for This year, we want to add our special State of the World. We also would like to thanks to John McBride and Kate acknowledge several other funders who McBride-Puckett and the McBride Foun- generously support Worldwatch: the Geral- dation in appreciation for their work on dine R. Dodge Foundation, the Ford Foun- population issues and their commitment to dation, the Richard & Rhoda Goldman promoting environmental awareness and Fund, the William and Flora Hewlett Foun- action. For their support of these issues and dation, the W. Alton Jones Foundation, the of the second annual State of the World Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, the Cur- Conference in Aspen in July 2001, we have tis and Edith Munson Foundation, the dedicated the population chapter of this David and Lucile Packard Foundation, The year’s book to the McBrides. Summit Foundation, Surdna Foundation, Chapter authors were grateful for the Inc., Turner Foundation, Inc., the U.N. enthusiasm and dedication of the 2001 Environment Programme, the Wallace team of interns, who cheerfully pursue Genetic Foundation, the Wallace Global obscure information leads and compile Fund, the Weeden Foundation, and the graphs and tables. Liza Rosen and Erik Winslow Foundation. Assadourian tenaciously compiled informa- State of the World 2002 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS tion for Chapters 1 and 4; Marcella publishers, nongovernmental organiza- Athayde delayed returning to law school by tions, and individuals who work to spread a month to help complete the research for the Institute’s message, we would not be Chapters 3 and 6; Uta Saoshiro found able to live up to our name. Special thanks information on both tourism and resource- go to Eduardo Athayde in Brazil, Hamid based conflicts for Chapters 5 and 7; and Taravaty in Iran, Gianfranco Bologna and Jessica Dodson provided invaluable Anna Bruno in Italy, Soki Oda in Japan, research assistance for Chapter 8. Magnar Norderhaug in Norway, Jose San- The immense job of tracking down and tamarta and Marie-Amelie Ponce in Spain, obtaining articles, journals, and books from George Cheng in Taiwan, and Jonathan all over the world fell to Research Librarian Sinclair Wilson in the United Kingdom. Lori Brown and office assistant Jonathan Reviews from outside experts, who gen- Guzman. As in past years, they controlled erously gave us their time, were also indis- and organized the flow of information for pensable to this year’s final product. We researchers, keeping them up to date on the would like to thank the following individu- latest issues in their fields. als for the information they provided to After the initial research and writing authors or for their thoughtful comments were completed, an internal review process and suggestions: Bina Agarwal, Bas by current staff members and Worldwatch Amelung, Stan Bernstein, Judith Bruce, alumni helped ensure that we would pre- Robyn Bushell, Steve Charnovitz, Nada sent our findings as clearly and accurately as Chaya, Richard P.
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