State of the W Orld 2002

SPECIAL WORLD SUMMIT EDITION SCIENCE/ENVIRONMENT W with a Foreword by U.N. Secretary-General Koﬁ Annan State of the World 2002 Worldwatch A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society

In preparation for the World Summit on Sustainable Development in September 2002 in Johannesburg, South Africa, State of the World 2002 evaluates what has been achieved StateState ofof since the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio. Ten years ago, the leaders of the world produced a plan tt fteWorld 2002 State of the to begin creating a sustainable global economy, one that meets human needs while protecting and restoring the natural environment. How much progress has the world made toward that goal? With State of the World 2002 as your guide, you will learn about the problems facing the delegates in Johannesburg as they try to answer this question—from today’s severe thethe WorldWorld inequalities of wealth and income (1.2 billion people live on $1 a day or less) to environmental threats such as climate change, growing numbers of tourists in fragile areas, and the proliferation of toxic chemicals. The authors also shed light on the possibilities for change and how existing technologies and resources can help solve many of our most pressing problems. Using renewables 20022002 like wind power, the energy economy can be converted from oil to hydrogen. Poor farmers can grow more food by taking advantage of “free” biological services, like nitrogen-fixing plants and beneficial insects. And women can have fewer children when they have a chance to get an education and to act on their own decisions on when to have children. Christopher Flavin State of the World 2002 spells out priorities for the Johannesburg Summit in seven key Hilary French areas: agriculture, energy policy and climate change, chemicals, international tourism, pop- Gary Gardner ulation growth, resource-based conflicts, and global governance. Decisions made today can make all the difference in our efforts to build a more stable and secure world in the future. Seth Dunn Robert Engelman State of the World is the flagship publication of the Worldwatch Institute’s highly Brian Halweil respected interdisciplinary research team. Additional information about Worldwatch publications can be found on the Institute’s Web site at www.worldwatch.org. Lisa Mastny Anne Platt McGinn State of the World® Worldwatch Institute® Danielle Nierenberg Cover photograph: © 1990 Tom Van Sant /The Stock Market Michael Renner Cover design by Elizabeth Doherty Linda Starke

USA $15.95 Canada $23.50 B NORTON b www.wwnorton.com THE WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE www.worldwatch.org State of the World 2002 Other Norton/Worldwatch Books

State of the World 1984 through 2001 (an annual report on progress toward a sustainable society)

Vital Signs 1992 through 2001 (an annual report on the trends that are shaping our future)

Saving the Planet Power Surge Life Out of Bounds Lester R. Brown Christopher Flavin Chris Bright Christopher Flavin Nicholas Lenssen Sandra Postel Beyond Malthus Who Will Feed China? Lester R. Brown How Much is Enough? Lester R. Brown Gary Gardner Alan Thein Durning Brian Halweil Tough Choices Last Oasis Lester R. Brown Pillar of Sand Sandra Postel Sandra Postel Fighting for Survival Full House Michael Renner Vanishing Borders Lester R. Brown Hilary French Hal Kane The Natural Wealth of Nations David Malin Roodman State of the World 2002

A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society

Foreword by Koﬁ A. Annan Secretary-General, United Nations

Christopher Flavin Hilary French Gary Gardner

Seth Dunn Robert Engelman Brian Halweil Lisa Mastny Anne Platt McGinn Danielle Nierenberg Michael Renner

Linda Starke, Editor

The STATEOFTHEWORLD and WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE trademarks are registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Ofﬁce. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Worldwatch Institute; of its directors, ofﬁcers, or staff; or of its funders. The text of this book is composed in Galliard, with the display set in Franklin Gothic and Gill Sans. Book design by Elizabeth Doherty; composition by Worldwatch Institute; manufacturing by the Haddon Craftsmen, Inc.

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W. W. Norton & Company Ltd., Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, London W1T 3QT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 This book is printed on recycled paper. Worldwatch Institute Board of Directors

Øystein Dahle Cathy Crain Scott McVay Chairman UNITED STATES UNITED STATES NORWAY James Dehlsen Larry Minear Andrew Rice UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Secretary Christopher Flavin Izaak van Melle UNITED STATES UNITED STATES THE NETHERLANDS Thomas Crain Wren Wirth Treasurer Lynne Gallagher UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Adam Albright Hazel Henderson Emeritus: Orville L. Freeman UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Lester R. Brown Hunter Lewis Abderrahman Khene UNITED STATES UNITED STATES ALGERIA

Worldwatch Institute Staff

Janet N. Abramovitz Hilary French Elizabeth A. Nolan Ed Ayres Gary Gardner Kevin Parker Richard Bell Joseph Gravely Mary Redfern Chris Bright Adrianne Greenlees Michael Renner Lori A. Brown Jonathan Guzman David Malin Roodman Niki Clark Brian Halweil Curtis Runyan Suzanne Clift Sharon Lapier Payal Sampat Elizabeth Doherty Lisa Mastny Patrick E. Settle Seth Dunn Anne Platt McGinn Molly O. Sheehan Barbara Fallin Leanne Mitchell Denise Warden Christopher Flavin Danielle Nierenberg

Worldwatch Institute Management Team

Christopher Flavin Adrianne Greenlees Ed Ayres President Vice President, Development Editorial Director

Richard Bell Elizabeth A. Nolan Barbara Fallin Vice President, Communica- Vice President, Business Director of Finance and tions Development Administration

Gary Gardner Director of Research Acknowledgments

This nineteenth edition of State of the In addition, we are indebted to the Insti- World draws on the dedication and hard tute’s individual donors, including the work of everyone on the Worldwatch staff. 1,300+ Friends of Worldwatch who, Backed by the generous support of funders through their deep commitment to the and friends, the Institute’s researchers, Institute, are the best multipliers of our writers, editors, communications special- vision for a more sustainable world. We are ists, and administrative staff have our many indebted, as well, to the Worldwatch Coun- thanks for working to complete this year’s cil of Sponsors—Tom and Cathy Crain, review of planetary health. James and Deanna Dehlsen, Roger and We begin by acknowledging the founda- Vicki Sant, and Eckart Wintzen—who have tion community, whose faithful backing sus- consistently showed their confidence and tains and encourages the Institute’s work. support of our work with donations of The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur $50,000 or more. Foundation awarded funds specifically for This year, we want to add our special State of the World. We also would like to thanks to John McBride and Kate acknowledge several other funders who McBride-Puckett and the McBride Foun- generously support Worldwatch: the Geral- dation in appreciation for their work on dine R. Dodge Foundation, the Ford Foun- population issues and their commitment to dation, the Richard & Rhoda Goldman promoting environmental awareness and Fund, the William and Flora Hewlett Foun- action. For their support of these issues and dation, the W. Alton Jones Foundation, the of the second annual State of the World Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, the Cur- Conference in Aspen in July 2001, we have tis and Edith Munson Foundation, the dedicated the population chapter of this David and Lucile Packard Foundation, The year’s book to the McBrides. Summit Foundation, Surdna Foundation, Chapter authors were grateful for the Inc., Turner Foundation, Inc., the U.N. enthusiasm and dedication of the 2001 Environment Programme, the Wallace team of interns, who cheerfully pursue Genetic Foundation, the Wallace Global obscure information leads and compile Fund, the Weeden Foundation, and the graphs and tables. Liza Rosen and Erik Winslow Foundation. Assadourian tenaciously compiled informa- State of the World 2002 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS tion for Chapters 1 and 4; Marcella publishers, nongovernmental organiza- Athayde delayed returning to law school by tions, and individuals who work to spread a month to help complete the research for the Institute’s message, we would not be Chapters 3 and 6; Uta Saoshiro found able to live up to our name. Special thanks information on both tourism and resource- go to Eduardo Athayde in Brazil, Hamid based conflicts for Chapters 5 and 7; and Taravaty in Iran, Gianfranco Bologna and Jessica Dodson provided invaluable Anna Bruno in Italy, Soki Oda in Japan, research assistance for Chapter 8. Magnar Norderhaug in Norway, Jose San- The immense job of tracking down and tamarta and Marie-Amelie Ponce in Spain, obtaining articles, journals, and books from George Cheng in Taiwan, and Jonathan all over the world fell to Research Librarian Sinclair Wilson in the United Kingdom. Lori Brown and office assistant Jonathan Reviews from outside experts, who gen- Guzman. As in past years, they controlled erously gave us their time, were also indis- and organized the flow of information for pensable to this year’s final product. We researchers, keeping them up to date on the would like to thank the following individu- latest issues in their fields. als for the information they provided to After the initial research and writing authors or for their thoughtful comments were completed, an internal review process and suggestions: Bina Agarwal, Bas by current staff members and Worldwatch Amelung, Stan Bernstein, Judith Bruce, alumni helped ensure that we would pre- Robyn Bushell, Steve Charnovitz, Nada sent our findings as clearly and accurately as Chaya, Richard P. Cincotta, Terry Collins, possible. At this year’s day-long review Frans de Man, Felix Dodds, Navroz meeting, chapter authors were challenged, Dubash, Megan Epler Wood, Taryn complimented, and critiqued by interns, Fransen, David Gee, Ken Geiser, Adrienne magazine staff, and other researchers. Spe- Germain, Margaret E. Greene, Ronald cial thanks go to researchers Janet Halweil, Carl Haub, David Hunter, Jodi Abramovitz, David Roodman, Payal Sam- Jacobson, Nadia Johnson, Rachel Kyte, pat, and Molly O’Meara Sheehan and to Darryl Luscombe, Mia MacDonald, Bill former Worldwatcher John Young for their Mansfield, Alan Miller, Sascha Mueller- detailed reviews of chapters. The magazine Kraenner, Jim Paul, Anita Pleumarom, San- staff of Ed Ayres, Chris Bright, and Curtis dra Postel, Jules Pretty, Jim Puckett, Kate Runyan also lent their superb editing and Queeney, Maria Rapauano, James Rochow, writing advice to Chapters 3 and 6. This Wolfgang Sachs, Richard Sigman, Axel year, the Institute drew on the expertise Singhofen, Rosa Songel, J. Joseph Speidel, and knowledge of Population Action Inter- Joe Thornton, Joel Tickner, Norman national’s Robert Engelman, who coau- Uphoff, Geoffrey Wall, Jack Weinberg, and thored the chapter on “Rethinking Pam Wight. Population, Improving Lives.” Further refinement of each chapter took On the international front, we would place under the careful eye of independent like to thank the many Worldwatch sup- editor Linda Starke, whose gentle—and porters who provide advice and translation sometimes not so gentle—prodding assistance from outside the United States. ensured that we met our deadline with all State of the World is published in 39 lan- our t’s crossed and our i’s dotted. After the guages. Without the dedication of a host of rewrites—and many edits—were complete, viii State of the World 2002 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Art Director Elizabeth Doherty skillfully President Christopher Flavin while helping crafted the text, tables, and graphs of each other researchers to arrange speaking chapter into the book you now hold. The engagements and make travel plans. page proofs were then ready for Ritch The Institute’s foundation fundraising Pope, for the important task of preparing activities are now under the able leadership the index. of Kevin Parker, our new Director of Foun- Writing was only the beginning of get- dation Relations, with assistance from ting State of the World to readers. Credit Development Associate Mary Redfern. also goes to our excellent communications Both worked closely with current donors department. Vice President for Communi- and funders, cultivating new relationships cations Dick Bell and Public Affairs Special- that will sustain the Institute’s work for ist Leanne Mitchell worked closely with years to come. And at the end of the year, researchers to craft their messages for the we were happy to welcome Adrianne press and the public. Niki Clark provided Greenlees as our new Vice President for energetic and creative administrative sup- Development. port, aided by intern Susanne Martikke. We would also like to express our grati- And Sharon Lapier helped keep the depart- tude to our long-time U.S. publisher, ment running, staffing the front desk and W. W. Norton & Company. Thanks to the tracking the thousands of press clips we dedication of their staff—especially Amy receive every year. Cherry, Andrew Marasia, and Lucinda Sadly, Christine Stearn, our resident Bartley—Worldwatch publications are Web goddess, left for New York City in available from university campuses to small- October after completing several major town bookstores around the United States. projects this year, including a new network We are also grateful for the hard work operating system, a powerful search engine and loyal support of the members of the for the Web site, and research topic Web Institute’s Board of Directors, who have pages (with the assistance of summer intern provided key input on strategic planning, Ryan Bowman). Although we will miss organizational development, and fundrais- Christine, we are excited about the skills ing over the last year. and sophisticated new network manage- In addition, we welcome with joy our ment experience that Patrick Settle has newest edition to the Worldwatch family. brought to Worldwatch as our new IT Tyler Rene was born to Suzanne and Ronald manager. Clift on July 12th, a poignant reminder This year Elizabeth Nolan joined the and inspiration to us all of the need to Institute as Vice President for Business build a healthier—and happier—world. Development. She and Denise Warden The year 2001 was thus one of many coordinated all our activities with our pub- changes and new beginnings for World- lishers, and brought creativity and energy to watch. In May, the Institute’s founder and our marketing efforts. Director of Finance first President, Lester Brown, left the staff and Administration Barbara Fallin kept us to launch the Earth Policy Institute, a new all in line by making sure the office runs kind of research organization that is smoothly. Joseph Gravely continued his focused on describing and encouraging the reign as czar of Worldwatch’s mail room. “eco-economy” needed in the new century. And Suzanne Clift ably assisted Worldwatch Lester was joined in this exciting endeavor

ix State of the World 2002 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS by long-time Worldwatchers Reah Janise ing on global environmental trends, and Kauffman (after 15 years at the Institute) are pleased that he continues to work with and Millicent Johnson (after 11 years). Worldwatch as a member of our Board of Janet Larsen, who helped Lester with Directors. Without Lester’s vision and ded- research during her year at Worldwatch, ication, State of the World would not exist. also joined Earth Policy as Staff Researcher. We are conﬁdent that Lester will continue Hilary French to make important contributions to think- Project Director

x Contents

Acknowledgments vii 3 Farming in the Public Interest 51 List of Boxes, Tables, Brian Halweil and Figures xiii The Rise of Dysfunctional Farming Hunger Amidst Plenty Foreword, by Koﬁ A. Annan, The Nature of Farming Secretary-General of the Why Care About Rural Areas? United Nations xvii Ethical Eating Preface xix 4 Reducing Our Toxic Burden 75 Anne Platt McGinn 1 The Challenge for Johannesburg: 3 Creating a More Secure World The Chemical Economy Gary Gardner Old Metals, New Threats: Lead and Mercury The Toll on Nature POPs and Precaution Caring for People The Changing International Field Pioneering a New Economic Model Environmental Democracy and Looking Ahead Markets Technological Changes and 2 Moving the Climate Change 24 Opportunities Agenda Forward Seth Dunn Moving Forward and Christopher Flavin Science Evolving 5 Redirecting International 101 New Views on Technology Tourism Lisa Mastny and Economics A Global Industry Climate Policy: Theory and Practice A Force for Development? The Business of Climate Change Environmental Impacts of Tourism The Political Weather Vane Ecotourism—Friend or Foe? Toward a Sustainable Tourism Industry State of the World 2002 CONTENTS

6 Rethinking Population, 127 8 Reshaping Global Governance 174 Improving Lives Robert Hilary French Engelman, Brian Halweil, and Reinvigorating International Danielle Nierenberg Environmental Governance The World by Numbers Striking a Global Fair Deal The Ecology of Population New Global Actors Healthy Reproduction, Healthy Democratizing Global Governance Families The Politics of Population Notes 199 Correcting Gender Myopia Index 255 7 Breaking the Link Between 149 Resources and Repression Michael Renner The Relationship Between Resources and Conflict Anatomy of Resource Conflicts How Conflicts Are Financed by Natural Resource Pillage How Resource Extraction Triggers Conflict Sanctions, Certification Systems, and Economic Diversification

xii List of Boxes,Tables, and Figures

Boxes

1 The Challenge for Johannesburg: Creating a More Secure World 1–1 Development Versus Growth 17

2 Moving the Climate Change Agenda Forward 2–1 Rio to Johannesburg: 10 Years of Climate Change Negotiations 27 2–2 Are Cities Moving Faster Than Nations on Climate? 39 2–3 How Can the Kyoto Protocol Enter Into Force? 46

3 Farming in the Public Interest 3–1 A Biotech Fix for Hunger? 58 3–2 Farmers Battle Climate Change 64

4 Reducing Our Toxic Burden 4–1 Gold Mining’s Toxic Trail 85

5 Redirecting International Tourism 5–1 Can Ecotourism Pay Its Way? 114

6 Rethinking Population, Improving Lives 6–1 The Changing Face of Population and Women at U.N. Conferences 129 6–2 Migration’s Continuing Role 131 6–3 Vulnerable by Gender 144

7 Breaking the Link Between Resources and Repression 7–1 The Coltan Connection 156 7–2 Environmental Impacts of Resource Conﬂict in Congo 161 7–3 Deforestation and Conﬂict in Borneo 166 State of the World 2002 LIST OF BOXES,TABLES, AND FIGURES

8 Reshaping Global Governance 8–1 Good Urban Governance 197

Tables

1 The Challenge for Johannesburg: Creating a More Secure World 1–1 Progress and Problems in the Fight Against Leading Infectious Diseases 11 1–2 Deaths Worldwide from Leading Chronic Diseases, 1990 and 2000 13 1–3 Global Sales of Selected Pharmaceuticals, by Category, 2000 14 1–4 Key Legislative Responses in the 1990s in Favor of Reuse and Recycling of Materials 19 1–5 Goals for Sustainable Development by 2015 21

2 Moving the Climate Change Agenda Forward 2–1 Kyoto Emissions Targets, First Commitment Period (2008–12) 35 2–2 Climate Change Policies and Good Practices 36 2–3 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Targets, Selected Companies 43

3 Farming in the Public Interest 3–1 Land Distribution in Selected Countries and Worldwide 62 3–2 Concentration in Various Layers of Agribusiness 68

4 Reducing Our Toxic Burden 4–1 Global Chemical Output by Sector, Value, and Share of Total, 1996 77 4–2 Global Atmospheric Emissions of Lead and Mercury by Major Industrial Source, Mid-1990s, with Decline Since 1983 83 4–3 Chemicals by Health Effects 87 4–4 U.S. Industrial Materials Derived from Plant Matter, by Production Volume and Share of Total, 1992 and 1996 98

5 Redirecting International Tourism 5–1 Top 10 Spenders and Earners of International Tourism Receipts and Share of Total, 2000 105 5–2 Hotel “Greening” Success Stories 119 5–3 Selected Tourism Certiﬁcation Efforts Worldwide 121

6 Rethinking Population, Improving Lives 6–1 Gender Disparity in Various Spheres 133 6–2 Population and Selected Natural Resources 134

7 Breaking the Link Between Resources and Repression 7–1 Selected Examples of Resource Conﬂicts 150 xiv State of the World 2002 LIST OF BOXES,TABLES, AND FIGURES

7–2 Key Events in Sierra Leone’s Civil War 158 7–3 Resource Conﬂicts and United Nations Sanctions 169

8 Reshaping Global Governance 8–1 The Rio Conventions—A Progress Report 178–79 8–2 Development Assistance Contributions, Top 15 Countries and Total, 1992 and 2000 185 8–3 Selected Environmentally Focused Business Codes of Conduct 191–92

Figures

1 The Challenge for Johannesburg: Creating a More Secure World 1–1 Small Dams Decommissioned or Removed in the United States, 1910–99 8 1–2 Deaths from AIDS in Selected Regions, 1990–2000 12

2 Moving the Climate Change Agenda Forward 2–1 Global Average Temperature at Earth’s Surface, 1867–2000 28 2–2 Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion, 1751–2000 29 2–3 Carbon Intensity of World Economy, 1950–2000 31 2–4 Carbon Emissions in the United States, China, and Russia, 1990–2000 35

3 Farming in the Public Interest 3–1 Per Capita Food Production and Agricultural Commodity Prices, 1961–2000 54 3–2 World Fertilizer Use, 1950–2000 55 3–3 Global Pesticide Sales, 1950–99 55 3–4 Certiﬁed Organic and In-conversion Land in European Union, 1985–2000 66

4 Reducing Our Toxic Burden 4–1 Toxic Intensities of Selected U.S. Manufacturing Sectors, Early 1990s 78 4–2 Projected Growth in World Economy, Population, and Chemical Production, 1995–2020 79 4–3 Industrial Materials Groups 80 4–4 Industrial Discharges of Chromium and Zinc, 1976–93, and of Lead and Mercury, 1976–95, into Regional Surface Waters, Netherlands 95

5 Redirecting International Tourism 5–1 International Tourist Arrivals, 1950–2000 103 5–2 Share of International Tourist Arrivals, by Region, 1950 and 2000, with Projections for 2020 104

6 Rethinking Population, Improving Lives

6–1 World Population Since A.D.1 130

xv State of the World 2002 LIST OF BOXES,TABLES, AND FIGURES

6–2 Cross-Country Analysis of Contraceptive Use and Childbearing 138

8 Reshaping Global Governance 8–1 Ofﬁcial Development Assistance, 1970–2000 184 8–2 Foreign Debt of Developing and Former Eastern Bloc Nations, 1970–2000 186 8–3 Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries, 1991–2000 187

xvi Foreword

Fifteen years have passed since the World to economic progress remain pervasive. Commission on Environment and Develop- Indeed, it is too late for the Summit to avoid ment presented its historic report, Our the conclusion that there is a gap between Common Future, to the United Nations the goals and promises set out in Rio and General Assembly. The Commission’s rec- the daily reality in rich and poor countries ommendations—presented unanimously, alike. But it is not too late to set the trans- without reservations or footnotes—were formation more convincingly in motion. courageous, visionary, and demanding. The Johannesburg Summit can and must They called for a fundamental reordering of lead to a strengthened global recognition of global priorities. They illustrated the the importance of achieving a sustainable inescapable links between environmental, balance between nature and the human economic, and social concerns. And they economy. The responsibilities that flow established sustainable development as the from this recognition are not identical, since central organizing principle for societies the nations of the world are at very different around the world. At the Earth Summit in levels of development. Such differences Rio de Janeiro in 1992, governments rec- notwithstanding, all of us should under- ognized the great wisdom of these findings; stand not only that we face common threats, most important, they committed them- but also that there are common opportuni- selves to an unprecedented global effort to ties to be seized if we respond to this chal- free our children and grandchildren from lenge as a single human community. the danger of living on a planet whose If the World Summit in Johannesburg is ecosystems and resources can no longer to lead to effective strategies for sustainable provide for their needs. development, we will also have to reinvigo- The political and conceptual break- rate the fight against abject and dehuman- through achieved at Rio has not, however, izing poverty. We will have to assess the proved decisive enough to break with risks associated with globalization and the business as usual. As the global community imperatives of global markets. We will need prepares for the World Summit on Sus- to breathe life into the treaty commitments tainable Development in Johannesburg in and other agreements the international September 2002, unsustainable approaches community has reached to save biodiversi- State of the World 2002 FOREWORD ty, protect forests, guard against climate and opportunities ahead. Readers may change, and stop the march of desertifica- approve or reject the various assessments tion. We will have to reinvent national and and proposals; I myself do not necessarily global governance. We will need new and agree with all the ideas expressed here. But additional financial resources. We will need we can agree that the perilous state of our strong partnerships among governments, world is in an object of genuine, urgent nongovernmental organizations, the pri- concern. We have the human and material vate sector, and others in a position to con- resources with which to achieve sustainable tribute, such as the academic and scientific development. With leadership, creativity, communities. And we will need to do all of and goodwill, at Johannesburg and this while adhering to the principles of beyond, a peaceful, prosperous common equity and solidarity found in the United future can be ours. Nations Charter and other guiding documents of international affairs. This is no doubt an ambitious agenda, not least because the record of disappoint- ment is already long, and the status quo remains deeply entrenched. State of the Kofi A. Annan World 2002 highlights both the obstacles Secretary-General, United Nations

xviii Preface

The World Summit on Sustainable Develop- ton office when word began to filter in that ment in Johannesburg in September 2002 first one, and then two, planes had hit the will present a rare opportunity for national World Trade Center towers in New York, leaders from around the world to address with a third plane hitting the Pentagon, some of the most fundamental issues facing just across the Potomac River. the human race at the dawn of the new cen- As my Worldwatch colleagues and I tury: Will the global economy find a new recovered from the initial shock and confu- balance with Earth’s natural systems? And sion, we began to consider the deeper can we meet the basic needs of over a bil- implications of September’s tragedies. At lion poor people today, as well as the addi- their core, these disturbing events are pow- tional 2–3 billion who will be added to the erful reminders that the ecological instabil- world’s human population in the coming ity of today’s world is matched by an decades? instability in human affairs that must be My Worldwatch colleagues and I decided urgently addressed. Meeting basic human in early 2001 that helping to define the needs, slowing the unprecedented growth agenda for the World Summit was the most in human numbers, and protecting vital important goal we could focus on in State of natural resources such as fresh water, the World 2002. It has been 10 years since forests, and fisheries are all prerequisites to the historic Earth Summit in Rio de healthy, stable societies. Building a more Janeiro—a good time to revisit the achieve- sustainable and secure world—and one that ments since that gathering and to consider is based on principles of universal human how to accelerate the pace of change in the values and mutual support—could not be decade ahead. The last 10 years have seen more urgent. many disappointments as well as successes in While the urgency of the task is new, the the cause of creating a sustainable world, all underlying themes are a direct extension of of which, we find, offer important lessons. the Earth Summit agenda in 1992. At its The urgency of our effort jumped dra- heart was a global consensus that the world matically on September 11th. Early that needed a new approach to development— morning, State of the World authors were one that ensures that human needs are met just settling down to work in our Washing- in a way that protects the natural environ- State of the World 2002 PREFACE ment without undermining the prospects To date, our prodigious ability to expand of future generations. The Rio Summit led our own numbers and levels of material to some historic achievements: two land- consumption has greatly outpaced our abil- mark global treaties on climate change and ity to understand and respond to the scope biological diversity and a document called of the problems we are creating for our- Agenda 21, a 40-chapter plan for achieving selves. Only recently have we been able to sustainable development. use satellite imagery to chart the destruc- These agreements reflected a significant tion of vast areas of forest or to develop the shift in outlook and a broadening of hori- computer models that allow us to project zons for the world community. But the even roughly the kinds of changes in weath- intense public enthusiasm and media cover- er that will occur as we add more carbon age that came with the largest ever gather- dioxide to the atmosphere. ing of world leaders gave a false sense of But the newly gained knowledge of sci- just how far the world had come in funda- entists is hard to translate into the common mentally reordering its priorities. Agenda language of average people or the special- 21 itself was a relatively vague set of goals, ized jargon of business executives or politi- lacking clear implementation plans or bind- cians. Stunning developments, such as the ing legal requirements. fact that half the world’s wetlands have As national governments prepare for the been destroyed—a goodly portion of them Johannesburg Summit—and reflect on the in the decade since Rio—are hard to grasp lessons of September 11th—two questions or to respond to. The fact that 12 percent beg to be answered: Why has so little of bird species are threatened with extinc- progress been made on the ambitious agen- tion is beyond our daily imagination. And da that was laid down a decade ago? And the fact that 1.1 billion people lack access what must be done to ensure that the next to adequate clean water—more than dou- decade is one of sustainable social and envi- ble the number who use computers—sug- ronmental progress? gests a level of poverty that is inconsistent The answer to the first question is both with our image of the twenty-first century.1 simple and complex: governments and indi- In his remarkable environmental history viduals around the world are still treating of the twentieth century, Something New issues such as population growth, the loss of Under the Sun, historian J. R. McNeill biological diversity, and the buildup of points to the unusual adaptability and clev- greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as if erness of the human species—characteris- they were equivalent to local air or water tics that allowed the extraordinary pollution—problems that could be solved expansion of the human enterprise in the simply by ordering the addition of control twentieth century. But this cleverness has devices. Humanity has not yet shown the not yet been turned away from its evolu- ability to deal with fundamental global and tionary focus—exploiting the rest of the long-term changes in the biosphere, partic- natural world to meet human demands— ularly when they require a systemic and toward a new conception of an inter- response—the creation of fundamentally connected and mutually dependent world different technologies, the development of in which short-term exploitation will even- new business models, and the embracing of tually cause injury to humanity.2 new lifestyles and values. One of the major challenges that will be xx State of the World 2002 PREFACE faced by world leaders who gather in oping world: choking air pollution from Johannesburg will be to develop a new con- the country’s heavy dependence on dirty cept of globalization—one that moves coal, 10 percent of its diverse indigenous beyond the narrow focus on trade and flora threatened with extinction, some of finance that has distorted international dis- the world’s highest rates of infection with course and that led to a large public back- tuberculosis and HIV, and water shortages lash in developing and industrial countries that plague a large share of the indigenous alike. Forging a harmonious global com- population. They will also see powerful munity will only be possible if it is based on reminders that only by bridging racial, eth- universal principles of respecting human nic, and economic gaps can these kinds of rights, meeting basic human needs, and problems be overcome—as South Africa is preserving the natural environment for beginning to do.3 future generations. In that endeavor, gov- Some of the outside pressures on the ernments, international organizations, pri- diplomats who will gather in Johannesburg vate companies, and citizens all have will come from the biosphere itself. Global important roles to play. emissions of carbon have grown by an addi- The decision to follow the tradition of tional 400 million tons during the decade it Rio by holding the World Summit in a has taken to agree to a modest climate pro- southern country—and one with the tocol that grew out of a convention signed unique history of South Africa—has sent a in Rio. And the proportion of the world’s message of its own. While global environ- coral reefs that is threatened has grown mental progress has languished in the last from 10 percent to 27 percent, while the decade, South Africa has transformed itself Convention on Biological Diversity signed from a divided country in which the major- in 1992 has languished. On the human ity was excluded from political power into a front, a decade of unprecedented econom- modern democracy that is moving to ic growth—adding over $10 trillion a year address a range of deep-seated social and to the global economy—has left the num- environmental problems. ber of people living in poverty nearly The stunning transformation of South unchanged at more than 1 billion.4 Africa’s political system after decades of Additional pressure for movement will downward spiral into ever more oppressive come from the tragedies of September 11th apartheid policies suggests that human and subsequent world events. It is now beings are capable of dramatic and rapid clear in a way that it never was before that change—when the conditions are right. In the world of the early twenty-first century is the case of South Africa, it required outside far from stable. At a time when we are still economic pressure, exerted by the world adding a billion people to the human pop- community. After years of claiming immu- ulation every 15 years, many societies are nity from such pressure, the country’s struggling with the difficult transition from apartheid political structure suddenly traditional rural societies to modern, urban, cracked. middle-class ones. In many of these soci- For all the promise of South Africa, eties, basic human needs for food, water, world leaders traveling to Johannesburg health care, and education are not being will find strong reminders of many of the met, with over a billion people living on problems still plaguing much of the devel- less than a dollar a day. Moreover, the lack

xxi State of the World 2002 PREFACE of democratic political representation and In the struggle to create a sustainable the concentration of economic and political world, there are only allies, not adversaries. power in a few hands has created a funda- Johannesburg can be an important step in mental instability in many nations—an waking the world up to the scale of the instability that echoes around the world in challenge we face—and the commitments the form of large-scale human migration, that will be required to address it. The illegal drug exports, and, increasingly, ter- eight chapters in State of the World 2002 rorism.5 provide our vision of the transformation If the lofty social and ecological goals of ahead, as well as our suggestions for con- the Rio Earth Summit had been achieved, crete steps that can be taken at Johannes- it is possible that the crises of the last year burg to start the world on a decade of would not have occurred. But these goals social and environmental progress that is far are monumental ones, and achieving them more productive than the last one. was bound to take time. In 2002, the challenge is even greater, but this very urgency may provide the kind of wake-up call that is needed if global priorities are to be reordered. In particular, meeting this chal- Christopher Flavin lenge will require a common sense of mis- President, Worldwatch Institute sion that bridges rich and poor 1776 Massachusetts Ave., N.W. countries—overcoming a sort of global Washington DC 20036 apartheid that was reﬂected in the divisions [email protected] between rich and poor nations that deeply www.worldwatch.org marked the Rio negotiations and that have continued all too strongly since then. November 2001

xxii Chapter 1

The Challenge for Johannesburg: Creating a More Secure World

Gary Gardner

In the anxious days following the terrorist the recommendations of the 1992 Earth attacks on the World Trade Center and the Summit? If so, there is plenty to report. Pentagon, world leaders described the Imagine a prime minister or president at the global community as suddenly and irrevo- World Summit on Sustainable Develop- cably changed. On September 11, 2001, ment in September 2002 reviewing events “night fell on a different world,” in the and ﬁndings of the past decade, in an echo words of President George W. Bush, large- of President Bush: ly because of a more broadly shared experi- The human family has suffered sickness, ence of vulnerability.1 but rare is the plague that can kill a “Americans have known wars,” he third of a nation’s adults—as AIDS observed, but rarely on their own soil. may well do in Botswana over the next “Americans have known surprise attacks. decade....Our planet has regularly But never before on thousands of civilians.” seen species die-offs, but only ﬁve times The new experiences of that September in 4 billion years has it experienced morning produced a shift in national prior- anything like today’s mass extinc- ities, literally overnight.2 tion....Nations have long grappled Those who would move the world rapid- with inequality. But how often have the ly toward sustainability must be amazed at assets of just three individuals matched the galvanizing power of the attacks. We are the combined national economies of the left to wonder: are tragedies of this magni- poorest 48 countries, as happened in tude needed to steer the world toward a 1997?3 new model of development, one built along These trends are no doubt less riveting Units of measure throughout this book are metric than the drama of a surprise attack. Yet they unless common usage dictates otherwise. alert the world to a danger less visible than State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG

terrorism but over the long term more seri- Not surprisingly, then, global environ- ous. These and other trends—from the loss mental problems, from climate change to of forests, wetlands, and coral reefs to social species extinctions, deforestation, and water decay in the world’s most advanced scarcity, have generally worsened since nations—warn us of creeping corrosion in delegates met in Rio. Social trends have the favored development model of the twen- shown some improvement, yet gaping tieth century. That model, used by develop- global disparities in wealth remain: one ﬁfth ing as well as industrial nations, is of the world’s people live on a dollar or less materials-intensive, driven by fossil fuels, each day, even as the world’s wealthy suffer based on mass consumption and mass from symptoms of excess, such as obesity. disposal, and oriented primarily toward eco- And a growing number of economies have nomic growth—with insufﬁcient regard for a voracious appetite for materials. While meeting people’s needs. In 1992 the U.N. recycling of glass, paper, and a few other Conference on Environment and Develop- household wastes is now common practice ment (the Earth Summit) challenged this in many countries, most materials in indus- model and offered a comprehensive alterna- trial nations are used only once before tive. It called the human family to a new being discarded. In sum, while awareness experience—that of sustainable development. of the environmental and social issues central to sustainable development undoubted- Steps in the 1990s toward a more just ly was raised in the 1990s, the new and ecologically resilient world were too consciousness has yet to register improve- small, too slow, or too poorly rooted. ments on the ground for most global environmental issues.5 Ten years after the historic meeting in Still, emerging awareness of the need for Rio de Janeiro, the world has begun to a sustainable path is an important start. respond to this call—but only tentatively More than ever, citizens, businesses, and and unevenly. Steps in the 1990s toward a government leaders understand that devel- more just and ecologically resilient world opment is about more than economic were too small, too slow, or too poorly growth—a key theme of the Earth Summit. rooted. Wind and solar energy grew vigor- Agenda 21, the action plan that emerged ously over the decade, for example, yet the from the conference, addresses social issues, world still gets 90 percent of its commercial the structure of economies, conservation energy from fossil fuels—whose carbon of resources, and problems of civil society. molecules play increasing havoc with our This broad panorama is consistent with the climate. Imaginative advances in the way picture of development endorsed by the goods and services are produced and con- U.N. Development Programme (UNDP): sumed could generate manifold reductions expanding people’s choices to lead the lives in materials use and waste generation, yet they value, especially choices that foster a most remain largely on the drawing board long and healthy life, access to education, a or are only at the pilot stage. And improve- decent standard of living, and participation ments in health and education, while laud- in community life. Following the lead of the able in many developing countries, were Earth Summit and UNDP, this chapter will uneven—and by some measures may actual- assess development over the past decade ly be unraveling in wealthy ones.4 with a broad lens, examining how well the

4 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG world has advanced environmental protec- ty of extreme weather events. (See Chapter tion, human health and education, and eco- 2.) Ice core readings suggest that current logical economics since Rio.6 atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are at their As nations gather in Johannesburg in highest level in 420,000 years; the global September for the World Summit to recom- temperature record points to the 1990s as mit to a just and environmentally healthy the warmest decade since measurements world, delegates would do well to summon began in the nineteenth century; and scien- the singleness of purpose that characterizes tists have documented a 10–20 centimeter the battle against terrorism. “We have rise in global average sea levels over the past found our mission and our moment,” Pres- century. Responding to these and other data, ident Bush declared in response to the the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate attacks in 2001. Imagine a global commu- Change, a group of more than 2,500 scien- nity with the same resolve—directed whole- tists from around the globe, warned in 1996 heartedly to realizing the vision of that a “discernible human influence” was development outlined at Rio. That is the evident in the changing world climate. By potential and the hope for Johannesburg.7 2001, its Third Assessment Report was more definitive: “most of the warming of the past The Toll on Nature 50 years,” it declared, “is attributable to human activities.”9 More than any previous international con- Despite the growing evidence of a ference, the 1992 Earth Summit highlight- human-generated disruption of climate, ed the central importance of the natural global emissions of carbon—a key green- environment for a healthy economy. This house gas—increased by more than 9 idea found conceptual support in 1997 percent over the decade, although perfor- when environmental economist Robert mance varied widely from nation to nation. Costanza and colleagues quantified the Some countries, notably Germany, the value of “nature’s services”—things like the United Kingdom, and former Eastern bloc soil-holding capacity of tree roots and the nations mired in economic recession, flood protection offered by mangroves—at reduced their emissions. Others, especially a minimum of $33 trillion annually, nearly China, saw emissions increase with rapid twice the gross world product that year. economic expansion, but they also became Despite improved understanding of the more efficient, reducing the amount of car- importance of the natural environment for bon needed to build products or deliver development, global response to environ- services. Perhaps the most disappointing mental degradation was sluggish—even as performance was that of the United States, nearly every global environmental indicator which is responsible for nearly a quarter of worsened.8 global carbon output. Although armed Leading the list of growing environmen- with the wealth and technology to curb car- tal problems is climate change, which gained bon emissions, and in spite of ample scope prominence over the decade as scientists for cuts, U.S. emissions rose some 18 per- improved their understanding of the link cent between 1990 and 2000. The cap- between emissions of greenhouse gases, stone of American reluctance to address to climbing global temperatures, rising sea lev- climate change came in 2001, when the els, and the increased frequency and intensi- Bush administration abandoned the U.S.

5 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG commitment to the Kyoto Protocol, a key combine to squeeze fixed supplies of water. diplomatic initiative whose origins trace Water stress typically shows up as a shortage back to the Earth Summit.10 of water for farms; agriculture is a prime The connection between climate change target for water savings because this sector and economic and human development is often politically weak and can account for became increasingly apparent as the 1990s two thirds or more of a nation’s water use.12 unfolded. Insurance companies were among Water scarcity could also have serious the first businesses to side with environ- developmental consequences through its mentalists in debates about climate change. impact on food supplies. Water-scarce Their epiphany came as damage claims from countries increasingly turned to two coping storms surged over the decade: claims from strategies in the 1990s: tapping into violent weather were greater in 1998, for groundwater reserves to maintain or example, than in the entire decade of the expand agricultural production, and 1980s. Another group that emerged in the increasing food imports. But neither is like- 1990s in response to the expected impact of ly to be a long-term solution for guarantee- climate change was the Alliance of Small ing food supplies. Sandra Postel of the Island States, a disparate group of island Global Water Policy Project estimated in nations from all parts of the world with one 1999 that nearly 10 percent of the world’s thing in common: all face economic ruin— grain harvest is produced with water even physical extinction—from rising seas in pumped from wells faster than it is replen- a warming world. The group’s 43 member ished, notably in the agriculturally rich states, representing about 5 percent of the regions of India, China, and the Great world’s population, were active in seeking Plains of the United States. Without a commitments from other governments to change in water use practices, and unless reduce emissions of carbon. A host of other substitute sources of water are found, that effects of climate change, from the impact share of the harvest will one day be unavail- on agriculture to the spread of disease and able—with disruptive consequences for insect plagues in a warmer world, were cited nations that depend on those supplies.13 as possible impediments to development Importing food can mean major water over the decade.11 savings for parched regions, since agriculture Another environmental issue that took typically accounts for upwards of two thirds on great importance over the decade was of a country’s water use. Yet this option is water scarcity. This leapt up the interna- open to only a limited number of nations. If tional issue agenda in the 1990s as projec- many nations turn to foreign sources of tions of huge gaps between supply and food, and if global markets cannot meet the demand and fears of conflict over water demand, malnutrition and civil unrest could gained a high profile. (See Chapter 6.) A result. Even if foreign markets are up to the 1997 U.N. assessment of global fresh water challenge, increased food imports curtail a found that about a third of the world lives nation’s opportunities for other imports or in countries that find it difficult or impossi- create greater foreign indebtedness.14 ble to meet all their water needs, a condi- Poor people are especially hard hit in a tion known as water stress. That share water-stressed world. Of the world’s people could double to two thirds by 2025, as classified by the World Bank as having low population increase and economic growth incomes in 1995, more than a third lived in

6 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG countries that faced medium-high to high Meanwhile, dams—for decades a widely water stress. Not surprisingly, more than a accepted technology for supplying water billion people in the world lack safe drink- reliably—have lost some of their luster. ing water, and nearly 3 billion do not have After a decade that saw protests over the access to adequate sanitation—two condi- environmental and social impacts of dams, tions with serious consequences for devel- in November 2000 the independent World opment. About half the people in the Commission on Dams issued a critical developing world suffer from diseases assessment of a century of large dam build- caused by contaminated water or food, and ing. The report acknowledged the contri- an estimated 14,000–30,000 people die butions of dams to economic development, each day from water-related diseases. That especially in providing irrigation water and is the equivalent of several September 11th electricity. But it criticized dam projects for tragedies every day, year in and year out— their impacts on people and ecosystems: but without the media attention.15 over the past century, for example, between Response to the growing seriousness of 40 million and 80 million people were dis- water issues has been encouraging, but placed by large dams, and 46 percent of the slow. Water analyst Peter Gleick sees the world’s primary watersheds now have one emergence of a “changing water paradigm” or more large dams that disrupt river flows. that reflects a more thoughtful perspective The Commissioners called for including a on water use. Policymakers and engineers, broad range of perspectives—from those of he says, increasingly prize water efficiency, displaced peoples to dam builders and envi- include environmental values in water plan- ronmentalists—in decisionmaking about ning, emphasize meeting basic human dams. And it declared that decisionmaking needs for water, and show less enthusiasm should be informed by values of equity, sus- for large dams.16 tainability, and accountability, providing a This new perspective is beginning to new framework for evaluating dams.18 show itself on the ground. The United States, for example, withdrew 10 percent About a third of the world lives in coun- less water from rivers, lakes, aquifers, and tries that find it difficult or impossible to other sources to support human activities in meet all their water needs. 1995 than it did in 1980, the peak year of use. Part of this drop is due to a restructur- Concrete evidence of recent shifts in ing of the economy away from water-inten- thinking about dams is found in the United sive industries. But some of it may be due States, where more than half of the removal to the adoption of water efficiency stan- or decommissioning of nearly 500 small dards, especially since 1992. In other coun- dams since 1912 occurred in the 1990s. tries, highly efficient drip irrigation (See Figure 1–1.) Of those removed for technologies have been adopted for high- environmental reasons, more than three value crops, with dramatic water savings. quarters came down in the 1990s. Author- And novel strategies such as water reclama- ities even began to discuss partial removal tion from sewage flows, water pricing that of large dams in Idaho to restore salmon discourages waste, and increased interest in runs, and the Sierra Club, among many “dry” forms of sanitation are all aimed at other environmental organizations, advo- increasing efficiency of use.17 cated removal of the giant Glen Canyon

7 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG

Number the urgent need to act. The World 200 Conservation Union– IUCN docu- Source: Gleick mented at mid-decade the share of 160 various wildlife groups threatened with extinction: vascular plants, 12.5 120 percent; birds, 11 percent; reptiles, 20 percent; mammals, 25 percent; 80 amphibians, 25 percent; and fish, 34 percent. The greatest immediate 40 cause of this assault on species is loss of habitat—a byproduct of human 0 activities such as farming and live- 1910s1920s1930s1940s1950s1960s1970s1980s1990s stock raising; mining, fishing, log- Figure 1–1. Small Dams Decommissioned or ging, and other extractive activities; Removed in the United States, 1910–99 and urban and industrial expansion. In a 2000 update, IUCN found Dam in Arizona. Although the 500 increases in the number of many species removals and decommissionings represent under threat, especially among mammals just a tiny portion of the 80,000 dams and and birds. It also determined that 18 per- reservoirs built in the United States in the cent of the 11,000 threatened species are twentieth century, the rapid increase in the “critically endangered,” the highest catego- trend reflects a new caution about tradi- ry of threat.21 tional strategies for supplying water.19 One of the most important and threat- People endorsing this new attitude ened habitats is forests. The world contin- toward water increasingly see this resource ued to lose forested area in the 1990s, as a security concern. While scarcity has sel- although the extent of loss is debated. The dom led to war in the past, areas prone to Forest Resources Assessment 2000 put out conflict over water appear to be on the rise. by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organi- Analysis by Sandra Postel and Aaron Wolf zation (FAO) cites a global loss of forested shows that 17 river basins in 51 nations on area of 2.2 percent over the decade. But five continents are at greatest risk of conflict that figure may be conservative. FAO because dams or other diversions are includes plantation area in its forest totals, planned unilaterally by one or more nations, even though plantations lack the biological and because no mechanism for resolving diversity of natural forests and cannot disputes exists. Scarcity-induced conflict provide many of the same environmental could limit the development potential of services. And in an effort to standardize adversary nations, either through damage definitions globally, FAO has dropped the inflicted in violent conflict or through the minimum tree coverage needed for an area diversion to the military of resources that to qualify as “forest” from 20 percent to might have gone to education, health, or 10 percent. This small definitional change other sectors important for development.20 nearly quadrupled Australia’s forested area Biodiversity loss, like water scarcity, compared with the 1990 figure, leading received greater attention in the 1990s. the World Resources Institute (WRI) to Ongoing species extinctions demonstrate note that “some parts of the Australian out-

8 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG back that are officially classified in Australia worsening flooding in China that killed as desert . . . are now recorded by FAO as 3,000 and caused $20 billion in damage. forest.”22 Deforestation disrupts natural systems the WRI’s own analysis of the FAO numbers way the attack on New York disrupted the indicates that excluding plantation forests urban system of telephone lines, transit from the calculations would more than routes, and commerce—and on a far larger double natural forest loss in tropical Asia scale, since serious deforestation occurs and temperate Latin America. For the trop- daily in dozens of countries.25 ics as a whole, WRI estimates 17 percent The damage from deforestation borne more natural forest loss than FAO does. by developing countries is especially dis- Although the data are confusing and less turbing when linked to wasteful consump- than reliable, it is clear that both groups tion habits. While 80 percent of the world’s report continued forest losses, a trend that people do not have access to enough paper threatens not only forest ecosystems, but to meet minimum requirements for basic also the more than 1.7 billion people in 40 literacy and communications, wealthy nations with critically low levels of forest countries consume paper at an astonishing cover who rely on forests for fuelwood, tim- rate. The average American, for example, ber, and other goods and services.23 uses 19 times more paper than the average As with water, the impact of deforesta- person in a developing country, and most of tion is most devastating to the poor. Many it becomes trash: less than half of the paper of the world’s rural poor who depend on used in the United States gets recycled.26 wood for cooking and heating must walk Deforestation in the 1990s, while tragic, great distances to find it, or must switch to was no surprise to scientists and policymak- dirtier fuels, such as animal dung. And for- ers, who had been tracking it for years. But est-dwelling peoples, for whom the trees another cause of biodiversity loss—the are a source of food, income, and cultural degradation of coral reefs—shocked the sci- and spiritual wealth, can lose an entire way entific community with the breadth and of life through deforestation. Of the 500 pace of its advance over the decade. Some million people living in and around tropical 27 percent of the world’s coral reefs are forests, 150 million are members of indige- effectively lost, up from 10 percent in 1992, nous groups that depend on forests and for- according to the Global Coral Reef Moni- est resources to sustain their way of life.24 toring Network (GCRMN), a web of gov- Indirect effects of forest loss are also seri- ernments, nongovernmental organizations ous. Forests provide a host of environmen- (NGOs), institutes, and individuals that tal services: trees regulate the flow of water tracks the health of reefs. Because coral between soils and the atmosphere; their reefs are second only to forests in biological roots hold soils in place, preventing ero- wealth, such extensive losses inevitably take sion; and their branches, bark, leaves, and a great toll on many species as well.27 soils provide habitat to the largest collec- Degradation of coral reefs is closely tion of biodiversity of any ecosystem on the linked to human and economic activities. planet. Deforestation means lost lives and Warming seas, likely the product of climate livelihoods: in 1998 alone, forest clearing change, stress the corals to the point where was blamed for contributing to a landslide they expel the algae that live within them, in India that killed 238 people, and for leaving the corals white, or “bleached.” The

9 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG bleaching event of 1998, one of the progressively smaller, starting in just a few warmest years on record, damaged huge years. This experience is both encouraging expanses of coral around the world and and cautionary. It shows that concerted sharply increased the share of reefs dam- international cooperation—in this case, the aged. Pollution from nutrients and sedi- quick crafting and signing of the Montreal ment, mining of sand and rock, and use of Protocol in the 1980s—is possible, and to explosives and cyanide for fishing also stress great effect. It is also sobering: most global the world’s reefs.28 environmental challenges are much more At the same time, the loss of coral dam- complex than ozone depletion, which is ages the prospects for a better life for caused by a limited set of substances, most coastal peoples. Nearly a half-billion people of which have ready, economical substi- live within 100 kilometers of a coral reef, tutes. Tackling climate change, deforesta- and many rely on reefs for food and jobs. tion, and water scarcity will require far About a quarter of the fish catch in devel- more ingenuity and diplomatic skill.31 oping countries comes from coral reef areas, which provide food for about a bil- Caring for People lion people in Asia alone. Reefs protect beaches from erosion, and help produce the “Human beings are at the center of con- fine sands that make many beaches attrac- cerns for sustainable development,” asserts tive for tourism, a prime source of revenue the 1992 Rio Declaration—an indication of in many tropical countries. In all, goods the importance of social issues for develop- and services from reefs were valued in 1997 ment. Here the world has seen some at $375 billion per year.29 progress: important advances were made in Without “urgent management action” to health, education, and other social arenas in stem the damage, GCRMN estimates that the 1990s. Yet the gains were spotty, and the share of reefs lost will climb to 40 per- some, especially the decline in some infec- cent by 2010. Some of these reefs have a tious diseases, are fragile and could easily be “reasonable” chance of returning to reversed. Moreover, backsliding on impor- health—but only if they are not stressed tant health issues was found in prosperous again soon, something difficult to assure in countries. This mediocre record is an a warming world. But even in the most opti- indictment of national priorities that too mistic case, 11 percent of the world’s reefs often are not directed at the most impor- are now regarded as permanently lost.30 tant needs of the human family.32 Despite the litany of discouraging In many developing nations, infectious trends, enough progress was made on at diseases continue to pose major public least one global environmental problem— health problems. It was not supposed to be emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)— this way: health officials in the 1970s to begin healing Earth’s thinning ozone expected infectious disease to be a minor layer within a few years. Production of problem by century’s end, even in the ozone-depleting CFCs was reduced by 87 poorest countries. Their attention, they percent between 1987 and 1997; after a lag thought, would turn to treatment of “dis- of a few years, the lower emissions levels eases of affluence,” such as heart disease should allow stratospheric levels of ozone and cancer. Instead, 20 familiar infectious to accumulate, making the “ozone hole” diseases—including tuberculosis (TB),

10 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG malaria, and cholera—re-emerged or spread treatments, and the political will to put in the last quarter of the twentieth century. them to use.34 And at least 30 previously unknown deadly Child deaths due to diarrhea, for exam- diseases—from HIV to hepatitis C and ple, were reduced by half between 1990 Ebola—surfaced in the same period.33 and 2000, meeting the goal set at the World Yet elimination of infectious disease is Summit for Children in 1990. Improve- possible. Pneumonia, TB, diarrhea, malaria, ments in nutritional status and in access to measles, and HIV/AIDS account for 90 safe water, along with greater practice of percent of infectious disease deaths, and all breastfeeding, played roles in this success. are preventable. Deaths for three of these Many researchers give the greatest credit to six were reduced over the decade (see Table oral rehydration therapy, the practice of 1–1), and two factors seemed to be espe- administering an inexpensive solution of cially important in each case: affordable water, salt, and carbohydrates to children

Table 1–1. Progress and Problems in the Fight Against Leading Infectious Diseases

Deaths Worldwide Disease 1990 2000 Spread of Resistance to Drugs (million)

Lower respiratory 4.29 3.87 Data from lab samples indicate that 70 percent of chest infection infections are resistant to at least one of the first-line antimicrobials. HIV/AIDS 0.31 2.94 Resistance to AZT and to protease inhibitors beginning to appear. Resistance to one protease inhibitor may quickly lead to resistance to the entire family of drugs, which were developed at great cost over many years. Diarrheal diseases 2.95 2.12 Multidrug resistance is a growing problem. Ten years ago, for example, an epidemic of shigella (a form of dysentery) was easily controlled with co-trimoxazole.Today the drug is largely ineffective against shigella; only one viable medicine remains, and it also faces growing resistance. Tuberculosis 2.04 1.66 1–2 percent of TB cases worldwide are now resistant to all anti-TB drugs. In Israel, Italy, and Mexico, the figure is 6 percent. Malaria 0.86 1.08 Resistance to chloroquine, the first-line treatment, is widespread in 80 percent of countries where malaria is a major killer. Second- and third-line treatments also show increasing resistance. Measles 1.06 0.78 Measles is effectively treated with a vaccine, but secondary problems associated with measles, such as pneumonia, are often resistant to antibiotics.

SOURCE: See endnote 34.

11 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG with diarrhea in order to replace vital sup- HIV/AIDS.” Because the disease claims plies of water and nutrients. The practice people in the prime of life, it has a devastat- was widely promoted by health agencies in ing social and economic impact. AIDS the 1980s and 1990s, led by the World reduces the ratio of healthy workers to Health Organization (WHO), and adop- dependents (children and the elderly), tion rates increased dramatically over those increasing the care-taking burden of the 20 years.35 survivors. The number of orphans and chil- Similarly, the decline in deaths from TB dren who have lost their mother, for exam- is in part the result of an inexpensive treat- ple, is projected to double, to more than 26 ment program known as DOTS (for Direct- million, by 2010. At the same time, the dis- ly Observed Treatment, Short-course). ease is a drag on national economies: the Aggressive promotion of the treatment by United Nations estimates that annual eco- WHO doubled the share of the world’s nomic growth per person is falling by people with access to the program between 0.5–1.2 percent each year in half the coun- 1995 and 1998. Today 22 countries, tries of sub-Saharan Africa because of accounting for 80 percent of the disease’s AIDS. Add to these burdens the loss of civil incidence, have adopted the program, and servants (especially teachers), the diversion it is working. In India, which accounts for of scarce health care resources to treatment nearly a third of the world’s TB cases, death of the disease, and the dashed dreams of rates among patients treated in a DOTS children who must leave school to help at program were only 4 percent—about one home—and the devastating impact of the seventh the rate in areas not covered by disease becomes even clearer.38 DOTS.36 The harmful environmental effects of In contrast, deaths from HIV/AIDS today’s economies are partly to blame for jumped more than sixfold worldwide in the the persistence and spread of infectious dis- past decade, from just over a half-million in eases. Pollution and degradation are direct- 1990 to more than 3 million in 2000. (See ly responsible for about a quarter of all Figure 1–2.) Nearly all of these deaths preventable ill health in the world today. occurred in the developing world, and nearly four out of ﬁve of them Million were in sub-Saharan Africa, where 35000003.5 drug treatments are largely unafford- 30000003.0 Developing and Emerging Countries able. About 1 percent of the world’s adults are now infected with 25000002.5 HIV/AIDS, but the rate is eight 20000002.0 times higher in sub-Saharan Africa. 15000001.5 There, the United Nations estimates Sub-Saharan Africa that in seven countries, adult infec- 10000001.0 tion rates are 20 percent or higher.37 5000000.5 The toll of HIV/AIDS is enor- Highly Industrialized Countries Source: Walker mous. UNDP asserted in 2000 that 0 some 20 countries have experienced 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 “reversals of human development Figure 1–2. Deaths from AIDS in Selected since 1990 as a result of Regions, 1990–2000

12 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG

Climate change extends the range of mos- People in search of pain-free lives pressure quitoes and allows them to move to higher doctors to overprescribe drugs—by an esti- elevations, spreading malaria. Warmer tem- mated 50 percent in the United States and peratures also increase the incidence of algal Canada. In developing countries, the blooms, which expands the habitat available reverse is often the problem. Patients to the microbes that cause cholera. And underuse medicines when they cannot scarce or polluted water supplies and lack of afford a proper dosage or when they fail to sanitation are responsible for more than 10 adhere to a full course of treatment. A 1997 million deaths each year.39 study of patients in Viet Nam showed that Indeed, economic activity and its envi- more than 70 percent were given too few ronmental side effects may be causing infec- antibiotics. Either way, the number of tious disease to bite once again in wealthy microbes resistant to the drug multiplies. nations. After 60 years of near-continuous The result is a more depleted yet more decline in deaths from infectious disease in expensive arsenal of antibiotics. The emer- the United States, the trend turned upward gence of multi-drug-resistant TB, for exam- again in 1980, and deaths have nearly dou- ple, has meant that a $20 medication must bled since then. This has captured the now be replaced with drugs a hundred attention of U.S. intelligence authorities: a times more expensive.42 2000 report for the Central Intelligence Meanwhile, “diseases of affluence,” such Agency blamed increased trade and travel, as cancer, diabetes, and heart disease, rose new patterns of land use, microbial resis- globally in the 1990s, many registering tance to drugs, and climate change for the increases even in the developing world. (See increase in U.S. infections, and described Table 1–2.) Some of the increase is, para- infectious disease as a new security threat doxically, a sign of successful development: for the country, since infections of Ameri- as life expectancies increase, diseases associ- cans increasingly originate outside U.S. ated with old age become more common. borders.40 But the surge is also related to lifestyle char- Health care systems driven by profit- acteristics increasingly common as the making are bound to overlook the health world industrializes, including poor eating, needs of those with little market muscle. A lack of exercise, and smoking. In Europe 1999 pharmacological study reported that only 13 out of 1,223 medicines commer- Table 1–2. Deaths Worldwide cialized by multinational drug companies from Leading Chronic Diseases, between 1975 and 1997 were designed to 1990 and 2000 treat tropical diseases. The great need for new medications to fight infectious disease Chronic Disease 1990 2000 is largely unaddressed because drug compa- (million) nies see few paying customers. Meanwhile, the market for cures for toenail fungus, Ischaemic heart disease 6.3 6.9 obesity, baldness, face wrinkles, and impo- Major cancers 5.0 6.1 tence runs into the billions of dollars.41 Cerebrovascular disease (stroke) 4.3 5.1 Even the modest gains against infectious Diabetes mellitus 0.6 0.8 disease are now threatened by the growing ineffectiveness of anti-microbial medicines. SOURCE: See endnote 43.

13 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG and North America, for example, more ly 90 percent of drugs sold globally in 2000 than 30 percent of all cancers are associated were sold in industrial nations, in part with dietary habits. And cancers caused by because prosperous people can afford smoking are expected to increase in devel- drugs, but also because modern industrial oping countries in coming decades, as more lifestyles create expensive, unhealthy condi- people there take up the habit.43 tions. Five of the top 10 classes of drugs One health trend that indicates industri- sold worldwide, accounting for some 18 al countries are worse off than in the recent percent of global sales, were for drugs that past—even if they are wealthier today—is address heartburn, obesity, heart disease, the rapid rise in adult-onset diabetes. This stroke, and other conditions relating in part disease is strongly associated with being to tasty but poor-quality foods. In 2000, overweight, a condition that is especially the world market for these drugs was more serious in industrial nations. In Europe, than $56 billion. (See Table 1–3.)45 about a third of all adults are overweight; in Wealthy and poor nations alike under- the United States, the figure is 61 percent. stand the drag on national development And in both areas, obesity (the extreme created by poor health. Draft findings of condition of overweight) rose dramatically WHO’s Commission on Macroeconomics in the 1990s—by 10–40 percent in most and Health, for example, show that Africa’s European countries and by 50 percent in gross domestic product (GDP) would be the United States. The problem, in turn, is up to $100 billion greater today if malaria directly related to policies that make fatty had been eliminated years ago. HIV infec- and sugary foods cheap and plentiful (see tion of more than 20 percent of the adult Chapter 3), and lifestyles that require less population of a country translates into an and less physical exertion.44 annual decline in GDP of 1 percent. And Global drug sales offer further evidence the Red Cross is placing greater emphasis of a trend toward poor development. Near- on fighting disease, since disasters are “built

Table 1–3. Global Sales of Selected Pharmaceuticals, by Category, 2000

Global Class of Global Sales, Share of Rank Pharmaceutical Used to Treat 2000 Global Sales (billion dollars) (percent)

1 Heartburn medicines Indigestion, gastroesophageal 17.4 5.5 reﬂux disease 2 Blood lipid (fat) reducers Cardiovascular disease 15.9 5.0 4 Calcium antagonists, plain High blood pressure and 9.8 3.1 angina; treatment of stroke and coronary heart disease 6 ACE inhibitors, plain High blood pressure, hypertension 7.3 2.3 10 Oral antidiabetics Diabetes 5.9 1.9

Total 56.3 17.8

SOURCE: IMS Health, at , viewed 30 October 2001.

14 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG on the shaky ground of poor public rate of illiteracy of women, whose social health,” in the words of one official. advancement is key to development, is Wealthy countries are not exempt from this almost twice as high as that of men in devel- tendency, either. Studies show that over- oping countries.48 weight accounts for 2–8 percent of health Much work remains to be done in pro- care costs in several industrial countries. In viding education for all. In Latin America, the United States, obesity was estimated in for example, a quarter of children entering the late 1990s to account for some 12 per- primary school do not continue past the ﬁfth cent of health expenditures. Resources grade. And in nearly half of Latin American devoted to these preventable diseases are countries, at least 10 percent of children in resources that cannot be spent on other primary school are repeating grades. These pressing issues of national development.46 high rates of dropout and repetition suggest As with health, developing countries an increased need to focus on educational made modest progress in expanding educa- quality as well as access. Overlooking quality tion for people in the 1990s. The number issues can be expensive: in the 1980s, chil- of children not enrolled in school dropped dren in Latin America required 1.7 years, on from 127 million in 1990 to 113 million in average, to be promoted to the next grade, 1998. National governments increased the a delay that cost primary and secondary share of their budgets devoted to primary schools $5.2 billion.49 education in every region except Central Despite the challenges, the formula for Asia and Central and Western Africa. The educational success is increasingly under- number of students per teacher declined stood. In a study of several nations and of slightly in most regions between 1990 and the Indian state of Kerala, UNICEF found 1996. And adult illiteracy rates fell, even in that countries with strong educational sys- regions of greatest concern: India, for tems typically achieved universal primary example, brought its rate down by 10 per- enrollment early in their development centage points between 1991 and 1997.47 process, gave emphasis to primary educa- Still, nearly one in six adults today can- tion without tuition or fees, and improved not read or write, a problem with strong educational quality while minimizing costs implications for a nation’s development. per student, dropout rates, and repetition Education raises productivity, innovation, of grades. The study also highlighted the and output—important ingredients for eco- beneﬁts for girls’ enrollment of having nomic prosperity—and tends to reduce female teachers, and the advantages of economic inequality. Education is impor- instruction in a child’s mother language.50 tant for population stabilization as well, since educated women tend to marry later Pioneering a New and bear fewer children. (See Chapter 6.) Economic Model And each additional year spent by mothers in primary school has been shown to lower Most economies in the 1990s continued to the risk of premature child death by some 8 use materials and fuel intensively and to percent. Not surprisingly, some 99 percent depend exclusively on gross national prod- of illiterate people are found in developing uct (GNP) to measure national well-being. countries; in the least developed ones, near- It might have been otherwise: the end of ly half of adults cannot read or write. The the cold war created rare historical space to

15 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG

remake the world’s political and economic 1991, followed by two multicountry waves landscape, to invest, for example, in new of reforms in the mid- and late 1990s development initiatives, from poverty alle- involving nine countries in total. The viation to mass transit. Instead, western amount of taxes shifted was small—envi- nations seized the moment to further ronmental taxes still account for only 3 per- globalize the existing economic model, cent of all taxes worldwide—but initial sometimes at the expense of local results are encouraging. Sweden estimates economies and cultures. And in the process that a third of its 40-percent decline in sul- of embracing free markets, many centrally fur emissions between 1989 and 1995 planned economies weakened their com- resulted from tax shifting, for example. The mitment to health care and education—two effect on employment has not been docu- key components of the UNDP definition of mented, but computer simulations consis- development. tently suggest that it is positive.52 Subsidies were also harnessed in the Microfinance institutions make small but cause of sustainability, with impressive critical interventions in the lives of the poor results. Organic agricultural area, for exam- to expand their options for a better life. ple, grew some forty-two-fold in Europe between 1985 and 2000 and now accounts Despite the bias toward business as for some 3 percent of agricultural area in usual, however, signs of an emerging shift the European Union, in part because of toward sustainable economics were evident subsidies to farmers as they move from tra- as the decade unfolded. (See Box 1–1.) ditional to organic farming. Likewise, sub- Imaginative thinkers in government, busi- sidies helped to boost global electricity ness, and academia found creative ways to generation from wind turbines tenfold redirect financial tools, engage the econom- between 1990 and 2000; wind now sup- ic power of the poor, and rethink produc- plies 1 percent of the world’s electricity. tion and consumption. These initiatives Conversely, Belgium, France, Japan, Spain, were tiny in the context of the global econ- and the United Kingdom all slashed or omy, but are featured here because their eliminated subsidies on coal production, vitality—and in many cases, their rapid and collectively halved their use of this car- growth—commend them as practical tools bon-intensive energy source. By expanding for sustainability.51 access to healthy food and clean air, these Governments and private individuals policies increase the likelihood that people alike began to flex their financial muscle in can live longer and healthier lives, a key favor of sustainability in the 1990s. Several developmental goal.53 European nations, for example, began to Meanwhile, some private investors began shift taxes from income to environmental to leverage their wealth for sustainable “bads” such as pollution and fossil fuel use development through participation in in search of a double dividend: degradation socially responsible investment (SRI) port- would be reduced as polluting became folios. The number of these programs in more expensive, and employment would the United States tripled between 1995 and rise as social security and other levies paid 1999 and were valued at $2.16 trillion as by employers were cut, lessening the cost of the decade closed—accounting for 12 per- hiring new workers. Sweden led the way in cent of all professionally managed funds.

16 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG

roots expression of a desire for a greener BOX 1–1. DEVELOPMENT VERSUS and more just world. As investors become GROWTH more savvy about SRI options, they might choose more rigorously screened funds that For rich and poor alike, advances were could eventually “green” capital markets.54 made over the decade in distinguishing One of the most promising economic development from a simple growth in advances of the 1990s came from the devel- income. Institutions such as the World Bank acknowledged that poverty is not oping world. Microfinance, the extension of simply a lack of income but a lack of small-scale credit and other financial services access to food, clean water, education, and to the poor, came into its own in the past other services that have a marked impact decade, 20 years after its birth in rural on opportunities for the poor. At the same Bangladesh. The world’s oldest and largest time, UNDP devised indicators such as the microfinance organization, the Grameen Human Development Index, which com- Bank, doubled the number of Bangladeshi bines life expectancy, access to education, villages it serves in the 1990s, to 40,000, and living standards to produce a yardstick and nearly tripled its clientele, to more than of national well-being. 2.3 million borrowers. Its success has also In prosperous societies, income indica- been exported: similar programs were estab- tors are insufficient for a different reason. Studies have shown that happiness does lished in 58 countries in the 1990s. not necessarily track with GNP—in the Researchers are just starting to collect glob- United States, for example, the share of al data on microfinance, but these too show people describing themselves as “very robust growth. The NGO Microcredit happy” declined from 35 percent in 1957 Summit reported a 48-percent increase in to 30 percent in the mid-1990s, despite a microfinance clientele just between 1998 doubling of income per person. And the and 2000, to 31 million participants growing toll of wasted resources in (Grameen included). Nearly two thirds were prosperous nations—material that is dis- classified as the “poorest of the poor”—the carded, time spent in traffic gridlock, and bottom half of those living below their health damaged by overeating, among many nation’s poverty line—and a large share others—are not included or are counted as benefits under GNP accounting rules. were women. In the Grameen Bank, 94 percent of borrowers are women.55 SOURCE: See endnote 51. Microfinance institutions (MFIs) make small but critical interventions in the lives of the poor to expand their options for a better life. Managing loans of as little as SRI programs allow investors to avoid sup- $50 and savings deposits as small as $5, porting firms with, for example, poor envi- MFIs help entrepreneurs, often home- ronmental or social records. The operations based, to generate greater income, perhaps of many, however, are still fairly basic. Envi- facilitating bulk purchase of supplies to ronmental screens used by some investment lower a basketweaver’s costs or allowing a firms might avoid companies that deal with farmer to store a harvest until market con- nuclear power, yet invest in a host of other ditions fetch a better price. MFIs are not a companies that pollute heavily. Neverthe- panacea to end poverty—they are not help- less, the movement is an encouraging grass- ful to the homeless, destitute, or others

17 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG whose lives are highly unstable, and they do tries—20 in Europe and 8 in Asia—have not end the need for social safety nets. But enacted packaging “take-back” laws that by targeting those on the economic mar- require companies to recycle or reuse pack- gin—especially women, who account for 70 aging discarded by consumers. Another 9 percent of the world’s poor and who tend countries require manufacturers to take to use a higher share of earnings for family back electronic equipment, and the Euro- needs than men do—MFIs could become pean Union (EU) now requires take-back an important grassroots weapon in the fight of automobiles. (See Table 1–4.) These ini- against poverty. Indeed, if the Microcredit tiatives are an important step toward com- Summit Campaign succeeds in its efforts to prehensive, economy-wide recycling, a key reach 100 million microfinance client fami- component of a sustainable world.58 lies by 2005—a figure that represents prob- Eco-industrial parks build on the zero- ably 40 percent of the world’s 1.2 billion waste concept by bringing together facto- people living in absolute poverty—its ries that can use each other’s wastes. The impact on poverty could be substantial.56 oldest and most famous example is the com- Finally, governments, industry, and non- plex of industries in Kalundborg, Denmark, profits spearheaded several ingenious which includes a cement factory, a fish farm, changes in the way goods are made and a power plant, an oil refinery, a manufactur- used, with an eye to creating more sustain- er of gypsum wallboard, a producer of able economies. On the production side, insulin, and local farmers. Each produces a “industrial ecology” embraces a range of byproduct—once considered waste—that is practices to reduce dramatically the appetite an input to the production of another. of modern economies for energy and mate- Although Kalundborg started more than a rials while preserving a high quality of life. quarter-century ago, the idea gained broad Such ambitious reductions—90 percent is a attention only in the 1990s. Today, accord- goal often proposed for industrial coun- ing to the National Center for Eco-Indus- tries—require more than increased factory trial Development at Cornell University, efficiency or a redoubled effort by families more than 25 eco-industrial parks have to recycle. Instead, it requires a rethinking been started around the world. This repre- of industrial systems—another way to sents an infinitesimal share of the world’s rethink the way we do development.57 industrial capacity, of course, but indicates Many of the imaginative initiatives of that the concept is alive and workable.59 industrial ecology have been tried only in Companies also increasingly design pilot projects. Yet some encouraging suc- products for recycling or remanufacturing, cesses are worthy of note. “Zero-waste” which saves materials and energy. Appliance factories, for example, radically reduce and automobile companies in Europe, for waste either by making production more example, are designing products for easy efficient or by selling byproducts to others disassembly and labeling components to who can use them productively. In 1996, indicate their chemical or metallic makeup. Canberra in Australia became the first city And Xerox now designs most of its copiers to mandate a goal of “zero waste” by 2010. to be remanufactured, rather than discard- Toronto has followed suit, as have about 45 ed, at the end of their useful lives. Xerox percent of local governments in New reported in 2001 that 95 percent of the Zealand. In addition, at least 29 coun- equipment returned to it in 2000 was

18 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG

Table 1–4. Key Legislative Responses in the 1990s in Favor of Reuse and Recycling of Materials

Initiative Description

German Ordinance on Requires manufacturers and distributors to collect product Packaging Waste, 1993 packaging and arrange for its reuse or recycling, or to join DSD, an organization that runs a package waste collection system in parallel with municipal waste collection. Consumers can also leave secondary packaging behind in retail stores. European Directive on Packaging Requires EU member states to recover 50–65 percent of all and Packaging Waste, 1994 packaging waste, 25–45 percent of which must be recycled. Japanese Packaging Recycling Requires businesses to take back glass, plastic, paper, steel and Law, 1997 aluminum cans, bottles, boxes, and other packaging. Material that is not readily recyclable must be collected, sorted, transported, and recycled at the manufacturer’s expense. European Landfill Directive, 1999 Biodegradable municipal waste flows to landfills must be reduced to 75 percent of 1995 levels by 2006, and to 35 percent by 2016. Prohib- ited wastes include liquid, explosive, corrosive, rustable and highly flam- mable waste, infectious hospital and clinical wastes, and whole tires. European End of Life Vehicles By 2006, car manufacturers must recover and reuse 85 percent of Directive, 2000 the weight of “end-of-life” vehicles, and by 2015, 95 percent. Costs are to be borne largely by the manufacturer. In addition, the directive restricts the use of lead, mercury, cadmium, and hexavalent chromium. Japanese Appliance Law, 2001 End-of-life televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, and air condi- tioners must be returned to retailers or local collection authorities, at the consumer’s expense. At least 55 percent, by weight, of air con- ditioners and televisions and at least 50 percent of refrigerators and washing machines must be recycled. European Directive on Waste Recovery and recycling rates for computers, tools, toys, medical from Electronic and Electrical equipment, and other electronic and electrical equipment would Equipment, in draft be set at 85 percent recovery and 70 percent recycling under pend- ing legislation. A companion Directive would prohibit the use of several heavy metals in these products.

SOURCE: See endnote 58. reused or recycled. Such “design for disas- goods, to meet people’s needs. Recogniz- sembly” initiatives portend a major expan- ing that a service is often less energy- and sion of the reuse and recycle mindset that is materials-intensive than producing goods key to a sustainable economy.60 for each consumer—and that services may Consumers also participate in the indus- better provide what consumers are really trial ecology revolution: companies and looking for—these innovators began to nonproﬁts have worked to nudge consumer reshape the idea of consumer choice. choice in a more sustainable direction in the Xerox, for instance, began to sell copying 1990s by selling services, rather than services rather than copy machines in the

19 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG

1990s—leasing machines to customers and mated 140,000 worldwide in 2000—but also maintaining them. Clients’ copy needs growth has been very rapid. No less an continued to be met as always, but with automobile aficionado than Bill Ford, chair- reduced waste flows and materials use, since man and now chief executive officer of the Xerox now had a strong incentive to reman- Ford Motor Company, understands the ufacture machines at the end of the lease idea of selling transportation services rather rather than throw them away.61 than cars. “The day will come when the One of the great successes in applying notion of car ownership becomes antiquat- this concept in the 1990s is found in “car ed. If you live in a city, you don’t need to sharing,” a kind of neighborhood-based car own a car,” he told a British newspaper in subscription service. Subscribers pay a flat November 2000.64 fee to join a car-sharing organization and are billed monthly for the time a car is used Looking Ahead and the distance it is driven. They have access to the fleet of cars in the city’s car- Over the past decade, people and organiza- sharing network, one of which is typically tions in the nooks and crannies of the stationed in their neighborhood. Most car world’s economies have begun to embrace sharers use public transportation, cycling, the natural environment, to address the or walking as their principal mode of trans- urgent needs of the poor, and to restructure port; they turn to cars only when they need production and consumption. Successes are to haul purchases, do a string of errands, or small, to be sure. But just as surely they can get to a place that is poorly served by their be rapidly expanded, with enough focus and normal transportation mode.62 will. As the world witnessed in September By confining cars to their best use—as a 2001, the U.S. government scrapped old flexible option when alternatives are inade- priorities overnight and vigorously pursued quate—car sharing helps build healthier others it found more urgent. Within two cities. Studies in Europe have demonstrated days of the attacks on New York and Wash- that car owners who become car sharers cut ington, Congress approved $40 billion to their energy use for transportation by about combat terrorism. Additional government half, and that each shared car eliminates assistance for airline relief and for an eco- four private cars from congested roads. And nomic stimulus package brought attack- because cars are materials-intensive yet related spending to well over $100 spend upwards of 90 percent of their lives billion—none of which was in the budget sitting idle, shifting trips from private cars before September 11. With similar focus and to other modes of transportation will create will, the global community can ensure that a a far more materials-efficient transportation third U.N. conference on environment and system.63 development in 2012, if held, would find a Car sharing has taken off as a viable sustainable world well under construction.65 transportation alternative in Europe, and Finding focus involves, above all, devel- fledgling initiatives are taking hold in more oping a clear set of achievable objectives. than a dozen cities in North America, The Millennium Declaration issued by the including Boston, Portland, San Francisco, United Nations in 2000 is a good place to Seattle, Toronto, and Vancouver. The total start; it lists a series of laudable goals for number of subscribers is still small—an esti- human development to be achieved by

20 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG

2015. Adding to these a set of environmen- A ﬁrst principle is to encourage the tal targets produces an ambitious—but still involvement and ability of women in build- focused and achievable—work agenda that ing a sustainable world. Investments target- would greatly advance the cause of sustained at women have multiple payoffs, which able development. (See Table 1–5.) “Tend increases their likelihood of success. We to people, mend their world” might sum- have already seen that a peso or a rupee in marize a workable strategy for sustainability the hand of a poor woman is more likely to over the next decade. be used for family needs, especially for These complex social and environmental nutrition and health, than it is in the hand objectives can be pursued in a dizzying vari- of a man, making income-generating ety of ways, and it would be easy to lose the opportunities for woman especially valu- forest for the trees as various actors pursue able. Moreover, investments in the health them. But a few principles could help max- of women are important for the healthy imize the mileage from the global commu- development of children, since women are a nity’s efforts at sustainability, and could child’s ﬁrst source of nutrition. And ensur- keep those efforts on track. ing educational opportunities for women is

Table 1–5. Goals for Sustainable Development by 2015

Source Goals

Environmental Goals Meet, and then extend, the Kyoto Protocol goals for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. End progressive shrinking of global area of natural forests. Develop and meet national air quality standards based on WHO guidelines. Halve the rate of soil erosion. End overpumping of aquifers.

Millennium Declaration Halve the share of the world’s people living in extreme poverty, suffering from hunger, and lacking access to clean drinking water. Reduce maternal mortality by three quarters. Reduce mortality rates for children under 5 by two thirds. Achieve of universal completion of primary school and gender equality in access to education. Halt, then reverse, the spread of HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other major diseases.

Economic Goals Establish and implement systems of national accounts that internalize environmental costs. Eliminate subsidies that encourage the extraction and use of virgin materials and fossil fuels. Encourage fourfold to tenfold reductions in materials use in industrial countries. Encourage an ethic of sufﬁciency in consumption.

SOURCE: Millennium Declaration from U.N. Development Programme, Human Development Report 2001 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001), pp. 21, 24.

21 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG

a key to population stabilization, which in city did, acquiring land near waterways that most low-income countries would facilitate supply the city, and taking other measures development. (See Chapter 6.) to protect the water supply. Only because At the same time, women in prosperous the city viewed preserving drinking water countries are particularly valuable allies of not simply as a narrow technological chal- environmentalism. Polls consistently show lenge but a broader environmental one was that women embrace the values shift it possible to consider this natural option.67 toward sustainability more quickly than Linkages among problems give clues to men do. Thus strategies to pursue sustain- how broadly we might draw the boundaries ability in industrial nations are more likely of a system. As countries tackle infectious to be successful if they appeal to women. disease, for example, many find that an Whether in wealthy or poor nations, a important immediate cause is unclean woman-centered strategy for sustainability water. Water may be unclean, in turn, harnesses the energy of one of the move- because sewage flows openly in the streets, ment’s most powerful resources and allies.66 allowing pathogens to enter the water supply. This dire situation exists because gov- Guiding consumer choices toward green ernments lack the resources or the will to products and socially responsible invest- provide sewer lines and treatment plants for ing can steer huge chunks of a national the entire population. If this causal chain is conceived as a single system, we might fight economy in a sustainable direction. infectious disease not just with medicine, but also with inexpensive, sanitary com- A second helpful principle is to focus on posting toilets that require no water at all. whole systems. Major advances in sustain- Draw the system boundaries a bit further, ability over the next decade will not be and it becomes clear that the composting attained through incremental efficiency toilets are potentially a source of fertilizer gains. Indeed, engineers and activists who for nearby farmers, reducing their need for achieved numerous reductions in energy chemical fertilizer, which in turn reduces and materials use in the 1990s were suc- water pollution from fertilizer runoff. None cessful because they defined production and of these solutions come readily to mind if consumption issues more broadly than their the problem is simply defined as infectious predecessors had. Sometimes stepping back disease. The old adage “If you’re stumped and looking at the system-wide picture is by a problem, make it bigger” is a neat not only efficient, but a money-saver as pitch for systems thinking. well. When New York City began to inves- Out of a focus on systems comes a third tigate options for protecting its high-quali- principle: harness powerful tools. Systems ty drinking water, for instance, it found that change is best done with system-sized equip- construction of water treatment facilities ment. Steering taxing and government would cost at least $4 billion, with another spending in service of sustainability, as a $200–300 million annually in operating dozen European nations have begun to do, costs. But investing in conservation of the could change incentives economy-wide and upper watershed that supplies the city with prompt rapid change, if adopted broadly drinking water would achieve the same aim enough. Redirecting government and cor- for about $1.4 billion. So that is what the porate procurement policies toward recycled

22 State of the World 2002 THE CHALLENGE FOR JOHANNESBURG goods could be just the boost needed to particular interest in health issues, and that expand the market for recycled materials and they respond readily to people-centered make recycling economically viable. And stories, communications strategies should guiding consumer choices toward green be sensitive to this. Only by using intelli- products and socially responsible investing gent change strategies will politicians, citi- can steer huge chunks of a national economy zens, and business people develop the in a sustainable direction. Governments and political will for larger-scale change.68 NGOs will need to enlist big levers like these In the decade since the historic Rio con- over the next decade if major progress on ference, the challenge of putting the sustainability is to be made. world’s economies on a sustainable track Persuading governments, corporations, has advanced only slightly—but important- the electorate, or centers of power to weigh ly. Trends are still headed largely in the in on behalf of sustainability requires an wrong direction, but a shift in global con- understanding of what makes people sciousness is clearly discernible. Efforts this change their attitudes and behavior. If it is decade to expand and build on that con- true that people in economically secure sciousness can increase the momentum in countries can afford to be more receptive to favor of sustainability. But those efforts values of sustainability than people on the must be made; at this stage, progress in this economic margins, strategies of persuasion struggle is not inevitable. The good news, will look very different in rich and poor though, is that as sustainability builds countries. If a society-wide change in values steam, succeeding efforts become easier. requires generational change—not just With proper focus and sufficient will, greater persuasion of the current generation debate at an Earth Summit in 2032 might of leaders—understanding where contem- center not on how to achieve sustainable porary society is in that transition will be development, but instead on what develop- important. If it is true that people have a ment means in a world of plenty for all.

23 Chapter 2

Moving the Climate Change Agenda Forward

Seth Dunn and Christopher Flavin

As the World Summit on Sustainable Devel- human activity had begun to alter Earth’s opment nears, international climate negoti- climate, and whether the projected impacts ations may seem to echo those of 10 years would actually occur. The perceived costs of ago. Just as in the run-up to the 1992 Earth reducing greenhouse gas emissions were Summit in Rio de Janeiro, a U.S. Bush almost uniformly high. The potential of administration refuses to embrace manda- cleaner, more efficient technologies to tory commitments to counter climate move the world toward a greenhouse- change, while European negotiators push benign energy system was just beginning to for binding national targets for reducing be recognized. Many businesses were greenhouse gas emissions. Developing- opposed to any international agreement, nation delegates criticize their wealthy with some using tobacco-industry tactics of neighbors for a lack of leadership, and questioning the underlying science. As a demand financial and technical aid for their result, the United States was able to wield own efforts to address the problem. Envi- its political clout and water down the U.N. ronmental groups warn that failure to reach Framework Convention on Climate Change agreement could cause irreversible damage (UN FCCC) that was agreed to in Rio. to the global environment, while industry Ten years later, there is now broad scien- trade associations counter that a binding tific consensus that human-induced climate treaty would constrain the world economy. change is under way and accelerating, with a But behind the curtain of this now-famil- number of projected impacts of warming iar drama, important developments have already occurring. The debate over the eco- reshaped the debate over climate change nomics of climate change is maturing, with during the past decade. In Rio, considerable greater recognition that innovative policies scientific uncertainty existed about whether can substantially bring down the cost of State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD lowering emissions. Wind and solar power, It is unclear how the tragic terrorist fuel cells, and other “alternative” energy attacks of September 11, 2001, will affect technologies have entered the marketplace the future pace of climate negotiations. The and begun to create multibillion-dollar Bush administration’s unilateral approach industries. A growing number of corpora- to foreign policy during its first eight tions are moving beyond denial to accept- months in office has been modified by a ance and action on climate change, some broad multilateral effort to cope with the seeking competitive advantage by anticipat- problem of international terrorism. But it ing rather than responding to future policy remains to be seen whether the U.S. gov- changes. And after years of struggle, the ernment will encounter the diplomatic need international community is showing signs to demonstrate greater multilateralism on that it may yet have the political will to bring other emerging global threats—such as cli- into force the contentious 1997 Kyoto Pro- mate change. tocol—with or without the United States. Indeed, the political landscape of climate The international community may have change has been altered in subtle but signif- the political will to bring into force the icant ways since 1992. This is in part Kyoto Protocol—with or without the because many industrial countries have qui- United States. etly begun to experiment with policies to reduce emissions, while the limited experi- Even if the United States does not return ence of several developing countries sug- to the climate negotiations table in the near gests that economic development can be future, domestic pressure to eventually do so decoupled from emissions growth without is likely to rise as other countries move for- harming the economy. More dramatically, ward to finalize the pact. Meanwhile, the the Bush administration’s abrupt announce- September 11th attacks have renewed debate ment in March 2001 that it would not sign over energy security and the world econo- the Kyoto Protocol has had the unintended my’s disproportionate dependence on Mid- consequence of galvanizing international dle Eastern oil. It cannot be lost on climate determination to reach a global agreement.1 negotiators that the same oil that has Historians writing about the rescue of increased vulnerability to terrorism and inter- the Kyoto Protocol may come to view the national conflict has also made the world Bush administration’s rejection of the pact more vulnerable to climate change. Both as a turning point, recharging negotiations reinforce the case for accelerating the transi- that had been bogged down for over three tion to a more efficient energy system that is years. The unilateral U.S. move backfired based on carbon-free, indigenous resources. not only with Europe but also with Japan, This chapter assesses how the climate Canada, Australia, and other nations that change issue has developed in the decade had previously been closely aligned with the since Rio. It outlines how the science, tech- American negotiating position. In Bonn, nology, economics, policy, business, and Germany, in July 2001—to the surprise of politics of the issue have evolved in often numerous observers and participants—rep- gradual but sometimes sudden ways. And it resentatives from 178 nations finalized argues that these developments, taken many of the protocol’s key rules while U.S. together, make the climate challenge in negotiators stood by and watched.2 2002 fundamentally different from that in

25 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

1992. Recognizing this reality is essential oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocar- for pushing the climate agenda ahead at the bons, and perfluorocarbons.4 Johannesburg Summit—and for achieving An important question during the 1990s far greater progress during the climate con- was whether the warming that has already vention’s second decade. occurred—an increase of 0.3–0.6 degrees Celsius in average global surface temperature Science Evolving since the late nineteenth century—could be attributed to human activities. At the time of Since its creation in 1988 by the World the first IPCC report, scientists could not Meteorological Organization and the U.N. determine whether human-induced climate Environment Programme (UNEP), the change was under way or whether the warm- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ing was due to natural variability, such as Change (IPCC) has established itself as the sunspots and volcanic eruptions. Over the most authoritative source of information on next few years, however, they made consid- this subject. Drawing on a network of hun- erable progress in distinguishing between dreds of experts around the world, the natural and human influences. By account- panel engages in a meticulous process of ing for the release of sulfate aerosols, which collecting, synthesizing, and peer-reviewing have a cooling effect, they found a better an enormous body of literature spanning match between simulations of climate dozens of fields that relate to climatic change and actual changes. This led the change. In each of three IPCC assessment IPCC to assert in its second report that “the reports (released in 1990, 1995, and observed warming trend is unlikely to be 2001), the mandate has been to assess avail- entirely natural in origin” and that “the bal- able scientific information on climate ance of evidence suggests a discernible change, its potential impacts, and possible human influence on global climate.”5 response strategies. The first two assess- In the five years since the release of the ments provided the basis for negotiating second assessment, new studies of past and the 1992 Rio treaty and the 1997 Kyoto current climates and better analysis and Protocol. (See Box 2–1 for a description of comparison of data sets have further the treaties.) The findings of the third improved our understanding of climate assessment report have set the stage for the change. The third IPCC assessment report current round of climate negotiations.3 notes that “an increasing body of observa- One clear finding is that carbon dioxide tions gives a collective picture of a warming (CO2), which is released into the atmos- world and other changes in the climate sys- phere from the burning of fossil fuels, is the tem,” including widespread decreases in single most important greenhouse gas in snow cover and ice extent and a rise in sea contributing to the “anthropogenic forcing level of 0.1–0.2 meters during the twenti- of climate change,” or the warming of eth century. The panel concluded that the Earth’s surface. The share of CO2 in warm- 1990s were likely the warmest decade—and ing is expected to rise from slightly more 1998 the warmest year—since instrumental than half today to around three quarters by recordtaking began in the 1860s. (See Fig- 2100. Other important greenhouse gases, ure 2–1.) Based on measurements in the emitted mainly from agricultural and indus- northern hemisphere, the average global trial practices, include methane, nitrous surface temperature rose more during the

26 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD twentieth century than during any other tions and emissions. Since 1750, atmos- 6 century in the last 1,000 years. pheric CO2 concentrations have increased Unprecedented increases in global tem- by 31 percent, with more than half this peratures have occurred in tandem with increase occurring in the last 50 years. Cur- record levels of greenhouse gas concentra- rent concentrations are the highest in the

BOX 2–1. RIO TO JOHANNESBURG: 10 YEARS OF CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate nations—to reducing their greenhouse gas Change, which was signed at the 1992 Earth emissions by 5.2 percent below 1990 levels Summit and entered into force in March 1994, during 2008–12. The agreement includes sever- established the objective of stabilizing atmos- al measures designed to lessen the difficulty of pheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at meeting the target, such as “flexibility mecha- levels that will avoid “dangerous anthropogenic nisms” that allow the trading of emissions interference with global climate” and allow permits, the use of forests and other carbon economic development to proceed. The treaty “sinks,” and the earning of credits through a recognizes several basic principles: Clean Development Mechanism or joint imple- • that scientific uncertainty must not be used mentation projects (carbon-saving initiatives to avoid precautionary action; that take place in developing or Annex B • that nations have “common but differentiated nations, respectively). The protocol also com- responsibilities”; and mits developing countries to further their • that industrial nations, with the greatest his- existing commitments to monitor and address torical contribution to climate change, must their emissions. take the lead in addressing the problem. In 1998, governments agreed to a plan of The agreement commits all signatory action and timeline for finalizing the rules on nations to addressing climate change, adapting the protocol’s implementation.At negotiations to its effects, and reporting on the actions they in The Hague, Netherlands, in late 2000, dis- are taking to implement the convention. It also agreement between the United States and the requires industrial countries and economies in EU over several key provisions led to a break- transition to formulate and submit regular down in the talks. Following a U.S. withdrawal reports on their climate policies and their from the negotiating process in March 2001, greenhouse gas inventories. It commits these 178 nations reached agreement in July in Bonn, nations to aim for a voluntary goal of returning Germany, on several key elements of the pro- emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000 and tocol’s rules. Many details of the Bonn agree- to provide technical and financial assistance to ment concerned compromises on emissions other nations. Today 181 nations and the Euro- trading, sinks, and compliance that allow addi- pean Union (EU) are party to the UN FCCC. tional flexibility in meeting the Kyoto targets. In 1995, signatories to the UN FCCC con- Governments also established a special fund to cluded that its commitments were inadequate, help developing nations adapt to the impacts of and launched talks on a legally binding protocol climate change. Outstanding issues were to the convention. These negotiations culmi- deferred to negotiations in Marrakesh, Moroc- nated in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which co, from October 29 to November 9, 2001. collectively committed industrial and former Eastern bloc nations—termed Annex B SOURCE: See endnote 3.

27 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

Degrees Celsius sea ice, and a more widespread 14.8 retreat of glaciers and ice caps. Even after greenhouse gas concen- 14.4 trations are stabilized, climate change will persist for many cen- 14.0 turies, with surface temperature and sea level continuing to rise in 13.6 response to past emissions.8 Scientists are more confident in 13.2 assessing the observed trends in Source: GISS weather extremes. The IPCC found 12.80 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 it “likely” or “very likely” that the latter half of the twentieth century Figure 2–1. Global Average Temperature at saw higher minimum and maximum Earth’s Surface, 1867–2000 temperatures and a higher heat index over most land areas, as well as last 420,000 years, and probably in the last more intense precipitation events over many 20 million years. CO2 levels are increasing mid- to high-latitude land areas in the at an unparalleled rate. About three quar- northern hemisphere. All these changes, ters of the human-caused carbon emissions moreover, are “very likely” to continue dur- of the past 20 years are due to fossil fuel ing this century.9 burning, with the remainder coming from A great deal has also been learned over deforestation and other forms of land use the last decade regarding the risk of damage change. (See Figure 2–2.) Based on this evi- from projected climate change. There is evidence, the IPCC concluded that while nat- dence that regional climate changes have ural factors have made small contributions already affected a wide range of physical to the warming of the past century, “there and biological systems. These changes is new and stronger evidence that most of include glacier shrinkage, permafrost thaw- the warming observed over the last 50 years ing, later freezing and earlier buildup of ice is attributable to human activities.”7 on rivers and lakes, lengthening of mid- to According to the third IPCC report, high-latitude growing seasons, shifts of emissions of carbon from fossil fuel burning plant and animal ranges, declines of plant are expected to be the dominant influence and animal populations, and earlier flower- on future CO2 levels, which are projected ing of trees, emergence of insects, and egg- to range from 540 to 970 parts per million laying by birds.10 volume (ppmv) by 2100. Global average Scientists have uncovered new knowl- temperature is due to increase by 1.4–5.8 edge about the vulnerability of various sys- degrees Celsius between 1990 and 2100. tems. Several natural systems are This rate of warming is much larger than recognized as especially at risk of irre- that experienced in the last century, and is versible damage, including glaciers, coral likely to be without precedent in the last reefs and atolls, mangroves, boreal and 10,000 years. Average sea level is projected tropical forests, polar and alpine ecosys- to rise by 9–88 centimeters. Also projected tems, prairie wetlands, and remnant native are a continued decrease in snow cover and grasslands. Climate change will increase

28 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD existing risks of extinction of the more vul- methane from hydrates in coastal sedi- nerable species and the loss of biodiversity, ments. If these changes occur, their impact with the extent of the damage increasing will be widespread and sustained. Slowing with the rate and magnitude of change.11 of the oceanic circulation would reduce More research is being conducted into warming over parts of Europe. Loss of the sensitivity of human systems, mainly either the West Antarctic or the Greenland water resources, agriculture, forestry, Ice Sheet could raise global sea level up to coastal zones and marine systems, human 3 meters over the next 1,000 years, which settlements, energy, industry, insurance and would submerge many islands and inundate other financial services, and human health. extensive coastal areas. Added carbon and Projected adverse impacts include: methane releases would further amplify • a reduction in potential crop yields in warming.13 most tropical and subtropical regions for Adaptation to climate change has also most temperature increases; garnered growing attention. But this costs • decreased water availability for popula- money, and the most vulnerable countries tions in many water-scarce regions, have the fewest resources and the least abil- notably in the subtropics; ity to adapt. The IPCC concluded rather • an increase in the number of people forcefully that “the effects of climate exposed to vector-borne and water-borne change are expected to be greatest in devel- diseases (such as malaria and cholera) and oping countries in terms of loss of life and an increase in heat stress mortality; and relative effects on investment and the econ- • a widespread increase in the risk of flood- omy.” Regional assessments reveal major ing for tens of millions of people, due to vulnerabilities around the globe—a Nation- both increased heavy precipitation events al Research Council study points to serious and sea level rise. adverse impacts in the United States—but Projected changes in climate extremes— those who will be hit hardest have con- droughts, floods, heat waves, avalanches, tributed least to the problem.14 and windstorms—could have major conse- How much climate change occurs will quences, as the frequency and severity of these events are expected to Million Tons increase.12 8000 The potential for large-scale, irre- Source: ORNL versible impacts has received more study, as they pose risks that have not 6000 yet been reliably quantified. Exam- ples include a significant slowing of 4000 the ocean circulation system that conveys warm water to the North Atlantic, major reductions in the 2000 Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, accelerated warming due to 0 carbon releases from terrestrial 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 ecosystems, and the release of carbon Figure 2–2. Global Carbon Emissions from from permafrost regions and Fossil Fuel Combustion, 1751–2000

29 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

depend on how high CO2 concentrations jected to reach 11.5–14 billion tons by rise, which in turn will be determined by 2010 and 12–16 billion tons by 2020.) The trends in carbon emissions from fossil fuel panel also found that half of these reduc- burning. Stabilizing greenhouse gas con- tions could be achieved by 2020 in a cost- centrations at 450 ppmv, for example, effective fashion.17 requires that annual carbon emissions drop These low-cost opportunities lie primari- well below current levels within the next ly in the hundreds of technologies and prac- several decades, then to around 2 billion tices that promote efficient energy use in tons by 2100, and ultimately to less than 1 buildings, transportation, and manufactur- billion tons. This entails a cut of roughly ing. In addition, natural gas is expected to 70–80 percent in global carbon emissions— play an important role in reducing emis- much larger than the Kyoto cuts under sions in tandem with power plant efficiency negotiation.15 improvements and greater use of cogeneration (the combined use of heat and power). New Views on Technology Important contributions can also be made and Economics by low-carbon energy systems, such as biomass from forestry and agricultural byprod- Lowering global carbon emissions will ucts, landfill methane, wind and solar require major changes in existing patterns power, hydropower, and other renewable of energy resource development. Fortu- sources of energy. Agriculture and industry nately, the potential of new technologies can reduce other greenhouse gases: and policies to slow climate change has Methane and nitrous oxide emissions can grown dramatically since Rio. Since its be cut from livestock fermentation, rice 1995 assessment, the IPCC reports, “sig- paddies, nitrogen fertilizer use, and animal nificant progress relevant to greenhouse gas wastes, while process changes and the use of emissions reduction has been made and has alternative compounds can minimize the been faster than anticipated.” Advances are emissions of fluorinated gases.18 taking place in a wide range of technologies Using these available or near-ready tech- that are in varying stages of development. nologies, most models suggest that atmos- These include the market introduction of pheric CO2 levels could be stabilized at wind turbines, the elimination of industrial 450–550 ppmv, if not lower, over the next byproduct gases, the emergence of highly 100 years. Bringing this about, however, efficient hybrid-electric cars, and the would require major socioeconomic and advance of fuel cell technology.16 institutional changes. These reductions What is the potential for reducing emis- imply an accelerated decoupling of eco- sions in the relatively near future? Summa- nomic development and carbon emissions, rizing hundreds of studies, the IPCC as measured in the carbon intensity of the concludes that global emissions could be global economy. (See Figure 2–3.) It also reduced well below 2000 levels between suggests that the supply and conversion of 2010 and 2020. Specifically, the panel esti- energy can no longer be dominated by low- mates that emissions could be reduced by priced fossil fuels.19 1.9–2.6 billion tons of carbon equivalent by What are the costs and benefits of cut- 2010, and then by 3.6–5.5 billion tons by ting emissions? Analyses vary widely, given 2020. (At the moment, emissions are pro- different methodologies and underlying

30 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

Tons per Million Dollars of Output become larger. In many cases, the 300 side or ancillary benefits of reduc- 250 ing carbon emissions—lower air pollution, new jobs, reduced oil 200 imports—balance out the costs of the policies themselves. For exam- 150 ple, reducing carbon emissions can 100 also lower emissions of particulates, ozone, and nitrogen and sulfur 50 oxides—which can have significant Source: ORNL, IMF human health benefits.21 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Recent government studies support the notion that there is signif- Figure 2–3. Carbon Intensity of World Economy, 1950–2000 icant potential for low-cost or no-cost emissions cuts. A U.S. Department of Energy study esti- assumptions. Estimates depend, for exam- mates that the nation could meet the ple, on whether the revenue of carbon taxes majority of its Kyoto target at no net cost, is recycled back into the economy through primarily by removing market barriers to reductions in other taxes; whether the ben- the adoption of existing energy-efficient efits of avoided climate change—including and renewable energy technologies. These side benefits such as energy savings, policies would also reduce air pollution, reduced local and regional air pollution, petroleum dependence, and inefficiencies in energy security, and employment—are fac- energy use, leading to economic benefits tored in; and whether the external costs of that are comparable to overall costs. Simi- climate change are incorporated into mar- larly, a report from the Climate Change ket prices. Other assumptions shaping Programme of the European Commission models of the economics of climate change indicates that the European Union can include demographic, economic, and tech- achieve its Kyoto target through cost-effec- nological trends; the level and timing of the tive measures that amount to no more than agreed-to target; and the degree of reliance $18 per ton of carbon dioxide, accounting on various implementation measures, such for about 0.6 percent of the region’s gross as emissions trading.20 domestic product (GDP). These measures, There is a consensus among experts that primarily involving enhanced energy effi- some greenhouse gas emissions can be lim- ciency, have the potential to achieve more ited at no cost—or even a net benefit—to than double the emissions cut required of society through “no regrets” policies that the EU under the protocol.22 address imperfections in the market. A lack How much would it cost industrial and of information, for instance, can prevent former Eastern bloc nations (Annex B consumers and businesses from adopting countries) to implement the Kyoto Proto- efficient technologies that lower overall col? That depends on how much trading is energy costs. If carbon taxes or auctioned involved and what domestic measures are emissions permits are used to finance taken. Without emissions trading between reduced wage and labor taxes, the benefits these countries, most global studies show

31 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

reductions in projected GDP of about certain policy regimes could lead to stabi- 0.2–2 percent in 2010 for different regions. lization of CO2 concentrations and GDP With full emissions trading, however, the growth.25 reductions would be just 0.1–1.1 percent of Efforts to improve climate-related mod- projected GDP—amounts that would likely eling have resulted in the “integrated be lost in the “noise” of natural variations assessment” model, which attempts to syn- of the economy. The models also do not thesize climate science, policy, and econom- factor in the use of carbon sinks or non- ic research—and is becoming increasingly CO2 greenhouse gases to meet targets, the influential in policy circles. These models Clean Development Mechanism, side bene- are useful for assessing policies, coordinat- fits, or revenue recycling.23 ing issues, and comparing climate and non- climate policies. But a recent study from the However the costs and benefits add Pew Center on Global Climate Change up, they will be spread unevenly among observes that most integrated assessment different sectors of the economy. models are based on economic theories with simplifications that do not always Economies in transition, which are apply to climate policy. In particular, they included in the Annex B grouping, repre- make unrealistic assumptions about how sent a special case. For most of these, the market forces drive technological innova- effects range from an increase of several tion, the behavior of firms, intergenera- percent of GDP to negligible—reflecting tional equity, and climate “surprises.” Such enormous opportunities for improving assumptions tend to drive up the estimated energy efficiency. If energy efficiency is cost of dealing with climate change.26 indeed improved drastically, emissions However the costs and benefits add in 2010 could be well below the amounts up, they will be spread unevenly among assigned to them under the Kyoto treaty. different sectors of the economy. Generally In such instances, models show an in- speaking, it is easier to identify the sectors crease in GDP, due to revenues these coun- that are likely to face economic costs than tries obtain from selling their trading it is to pinpoint those that may benefit. In surpluses.24 addition, the costs are more immediate, What would it cost to reduce emissions more concentrated, and more certain— more aggressively? Conventional economic even if the benefits prove to be greater. models typically suggest that costs will rise Coal, possibly oil and natural gas, and cer- as the level at which greenhouse gas contain energy-intensive sectors—such as steel centrations are stabilized drops (from 750 production—are most likely to suffer an to 550 ppmv, or from 550 to 450 ppmv). economic disadvantage. Others, including But these models ignore the potential of the renewable energy industry, are expected ambitious targets to bring about deep tech- to benefit over the long term from price nological change by spurring industry to changes and the availability of financial make large rather than incremental innova- and other resources that might otherwise tions. “Induced technological change” is an have been committed to carbon-intensive emerging field of research in climate change energy sectors.27 economics, but most models do not Appropriate measures can help cushion account for it. Those that do suggest that some of the costs to various sectors. The

32 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD removal of fossil fuel subsidies could lower and in the longer term more than off- increase total societal benefits by improving set the environmental or economic costs of economic efficiency, while trading can cut any leakage.30 the net economic cost of meeting the targets. Some policies, such as exempting car- Climate Policy:Theory bon-intensive industries from these taxes, and Practice will redistribute the costs but also increase the total expense to society. And the rev- In order to tap various opportunities for enues from a carbon tax can be used to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, gov- compensate low-income groups who would ernments will need to overcome the many otherwise suffer.28 technical, economic, political, social, behav- Other countries will be affected by the ioral, and institutional barriers to change. actions taken by those facing initial The options vary widely by region and sec- emissions constraints. For oil-exporting tor, as well as over time, with poor people developing countries, estimated impacts are facing particularly limited options for as high as a 25-percent reduction of pro- adopting technologies or changing behav- jected oil revenues by 2010. But these stud- ior. In industrial countries, the major barri- ies do not consider policies other than ers relate primarily to social and behavioral trading—which could lower the impact on resistance; in economies in transition, they oil exporters—and thus tend to overstate center on subsidized energy prices; in both the costs to these countries and the developing countries, they hinge largely on overall costs. Such nations can further greater access to information and advanced reduce the impact by removing subsidies technologies, financial resources, and train- for fossil fuels, restructuring energy ing. But every country can find opportuni- taxes according to carbon content, increas- ties to surmount some combination of ing natural gas use, and diversifying their these barriers.31 economies.29 Evidence to date suggests that national Other developing countries face both responses to climate change can be more costs and benefits. They may suffer the effective if they are deployed as a portfolio effects of reduced demand for exports and of policy instruments that either limit or the higher price of imports. At the same reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These time, however, they may benefit from the might include: transfer of environmentally sound tech- • carbon/energy taxes, nologies and know-how. No country is like- • tradeable permits, ly to experience the same net effect, and it • removal of subsidies to carbon energy is hard to identify winners and losers. As for sources, “carbon leakage”—the possibility that car- • provision of subsidies and tax incentives bon-intensive industries will simply relocate for carbon-free sources, to developing countries in response to • refund systems, changing prices—the estimates range from • technology or performance standards, a 5- to a 20-percent increase in non-Annex • energy mix requirements, B emissions. But these models do not • product bans, account for the transfer of environmentally • voluntary agreements, and sound technologies and skills, which could • investment in research and development.

33 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

Although there is no one policy of tion of atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. choice, market-based instruments show Economic models completed since the sec- signs of being cost-effective. Energy effi- ond assessment suggest that a gradual tran- ciency standards have been widely used and sition toward a less carbon-emitting energy could be effective in a number of countries. system would minimize the premature Voluntary agreements with industry have retirement of power plants, factories, and become more frequently relied upon, in other forms of capital stock. It would pro- some instances as a precursor to more strin- vide time for technology development and gent measures. Other measures include avoid an untimely lock-in to early versions influencing consumer and producer behav- of low-emission technologies that are devel- ior through information campaigns, envi- oping rapidly. And greater near-term action ronmental labeling, green marketing, and would decrease the environmental and incentives. Government and private R&D human risks associated with rapid climate are essential for advances in technologies changes, allow for a later tightening of tar- that will lower costs further.32 gets, and address concerns about the effec- Another lesson from the early history of tiveness and equity of the climate regime.34 climate policy is that it can be more effec- Despite the strengthening case for climate tive when integrated with the “non-climate policy, the record of the past decade has been objectives” of national and sectoral policies mixed. Global carbon emissions from fossil and translated into broader strategies for fuel combustion rose by 9.1 percent between long-term technological and social change 1990 and 2000. Cumulative global carbon aimed at sustainable development. Just as emissions between 1990 and 2000, slightly climate policies achieve side benefits, non- over 68 billion tons, reflects a 15-percent climate policies can yield climate benefits. increase over the 59 billion tons emitted For example, emissions could be reduced worldwide between 1980 and 1990.35 significantly through socioeconomic poli- As for the Kyoto Protocol’s commitment cies such as energy infrastructure develop- of Annex B countries to reduce greenhouse ment, pricing, and tax policies. Transferring gas emissions by 5.2 percent between 1990 climate-friendly technologies to small- and and 2008–12, this group of nations medium-sized enterprises is another case in reduced carbon emissions just 1.7 percent point. Accounting for the side benefits of between 1990 and 2000. (See Table 2–1.) these policies can also lower the political In other countries, meanwhile, carbon and institutional barriers to actions pertain- emissions rose by 28.7 percent. Annex B ing to climate.33 countries still account for the majority—58 Coordinating actions is another way to percent—of global carbon emissions.36 reduce costs and avoid conflicts with inter- The United States remained the largest national trade. Taxes, standards, and sub- national source of carbon emissions, as its sidy removal can all be coordinated or share of the global total grew from 22 per- harmonized, though steps to do so have cent in 1990 to 24 percent in 2000. The thus far been limited. As for the timing of Kyoto Protocol commits the nation to a 7- policies, the IPCC has reaffirmed the find- percent cut in greenhouse gas emissions ing of its 1995 report: earlier action to mit- between 1990 and 2008–12. But between igate climate change provides greater 1990 and 2000, the United States increased flexibility in moving toward the stabiliza- carbon output by 18.1 percent, or 235 mil-

34 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

Table 2–1. Kyoto Emissions Targets, ed with economic slowdown and the clo- First Commitment Period (2008–12) sure of inefficient industries. Japan committed to a 6-percent emissions reduction, but Country/ Target Actual Emissions actually expanded carbon output between Region 1990–2008/121 1990–20002 1990 and 2000 by 10.7 percent, with con- (percent) sumption of coal rising by 22.9 percent. United States – 7 +18.1 India registered a 67-percent increase European Union – 8 – 1.4 between 1990 and 2000, primarily due to a Japan – 6 +10.7 54-percent rise in coal use. India’s per capi- Canada – 6 +12.8 ta emissions, though, are at 0.3 tons—well Australia + 8 +28.8 below the global average of 1.1 and the Russia 0 –30.7 lowest of the major emitters.39 All Annex B – 5.2 – 1.7 Through 2000, EU carbon emissions countries had dropped by 1.4 percent, although all 1Basket of six greenhouse gases. 2Carbon only. member states maintained per capita carbon SOURCE: See endnote 36. emissions above the global average. In Ger- many, carbon emissions fell by 19 percent, lion tons. (See Figure 2–4.) The difference owing to a dramatic 36.2-percent decline in between U.S. emissions in 2000 and in 1990 coal use associated with factory closings in is roughly equivalent to the combined annu- the former East Germany and a gradual al carbon emissions of Brazil, Indonesia, and removal of coal production supports. The South Africa. U.S. per capita emissions, United Kingdom, which removed coal sub- about 5 tons, are the highest in the world.37 sidies more sharply, experienced a 5-percent U.S. carbon emissions stand at more decline in emissions in line with a 41.9-per- than double those of the second leading cent fall in coal consumption.40 emitter, China, whose carbon output While only a few leading emitters—the increased by 7.7 percent between 1990 and United Kingdom, Germany, Russia—are on 2000. This figure for China includes a sharp course to meet their Kyoto goals, national 19.8-percent decline since 1996, due to improved efficiency and a 30-per- Million Tons cent reduction in coal use. (Some sci- 1800 entists have questioned the coal 1500 estimate, which may be revised down- United States ward). Chinese per capita carbon 1200 emissions, about 0.68 tons, are one seventh those of the United States 900 and well under the global average.38 600 China Russia, which agreed in Kyoto to maintain its greenhouse gas emissions 300 Russia at 1990 levels in 2008–12, experi- Source: ORNL, BP enced a 30.7-percent drop in carbon 0 output between 1990 and 2000, 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 mainly due to sharp declines in natu- Figure 2–4. Carbon Emissions in the United ral gas and coal consumption associat- States, China, and Russia, 1990–2000

35 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD governments of industrial countries are policy that can be applied across all coun- increasing their activity in the area of cli- tries, getting the prices right through sub- mate policy. The International Energy sidy reform and tax policy is crucial. Agency (IEA) has identified more than 300 According to the Organisation for Eco- separate measures that its members under- nomic Co-operation and Development took during 1999 to address climate (OECD), a combination of fossil fuel sub- change. The agency put these actions in five sidy removal and carbon taxes would cut general categories: fiscal policy, market pol- carbon emissions in OECD member coun- icy, regulatory policy, R&D policy, and pol- tries by 15 percent between 1995 and icy processes. The IEA study noted that 2020. Market approaches and a mix of poli- “good practice” climate policies would: cies—voluntary agreements, standards, • maximize both economic efficiency and incentives, R&D—are needed, as are moni- environmental protection; toring and assessment, good institutions, • be politically feasible; and international cooperation. Even with • minimize red tape and overhead; and these criteria, however, climate policies face • have positive effects on other areas, such the barriers of perceived high cost and lim- as competition, trade, and social welfare. ited political will to act.42 Based on these principles, it is possible to Climate-related fiscal policies are increas- identify several good practices to date. (See ingly popular, with nearly all industrial Table 2–2.)41 countries adopting such measures in While there is no “silver bullet” climate 1999—most of them modest in size. These

Table 2–2. Climate Change Policies and Good Practices

Categories Policies “Good Practices” to Date

Fiscal Ecotaxes Denmark, Norway levies Tax credits, exemptions U.S. wind/biomass tax credit Subsidy reform U.K. coal subsidy removal Market Emissions trading Netherlands, U.K. programs Green certificates Denmark renewable certification program Regulatory Mandates/standards Germany electricity feed law U.S. appliance efficiency standards Voluntary agreements Netherlands, Germany covenants EU agreement with car manufacturers Labeling U.S. Energy Star program R&D Funding and incentives Japan renewable energy funding Technology development Japan efficiency, renewables programs Policy Processes Advice/aid in implementation Switzerland car-sharing program Outreach France energy audits Canada multistakeholder consultations Strategic planning EU studies of community-wide strategy

SOURCE: See endnote 41.

36 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD measures are appealing because they tend The most significant activity in this cate- to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while gory has been the U.K. government’s stimulating national economies. Belgium, announcement in August 2001 of the Portugal, and the United Kingdom have world’s first economy-wide emissions eliminated their coal subsidies since 1992. trading scheme, which will provide up to Subsidies are also being added to promote $312 million between 2003 and 2008 to more-efficient vehicles and renewable ener- encourage British firms to sign up to emis- gy in power generation, with the most suc- sions reduction targets. The government cessful example to date being the German estimates the program, scheduled to begin electricity feed law—which has spurred the in April 2002, could be cutting 2 million wind power business and been replicated in tons of carbon per year by 2010, while giv- several other European nations. Nineteen ing industry a global competitive advantage industrial nations are planning more than 60 by generating new job and investment tax policy changes that will affect emissions, opportunities.45 although only 11 of these are defined as car- A third area of growing activity is volun- bon or emissions taxes. The most effective tary agreements, which arise from negotia- carbon taxes are in Scandinavia: Norway’s tions between government and business or levy, adopted in 1991, has lowered carbon industry associations. These are attractive emissions from power plants by 21 percent. because they face less political resistance One reason such taxes have been adopted from industry, require little overhead, and slowly or contain several exemptions is that can be complemented by fiscal and regula- their impact on fairness and competitiveness tory measures. Some 21 voluntary agree- is often overstated by industry.43 ments were initiated in 1999, including 4 Interest in market-based mechanisms has for power generation, 2 for transport, and also risen due to their expected cost-effec- 11 for industry and manufacturing. With tiveness and the success of the U.S. sulfur respect to stringency, they are characterized emissions trading program. Four countries as strong (in the Netherlands), containing have adopted greenhouse gas emissions legally binding objectives and the threat of trading proposals, with another nine, along regulation for noncompliance; weak (in with the European Union and the World Canada), lacking penalties for noncompli- Bank, considering their adoption or promo- ance but having incentives for achieving the tion. But only a few countries, such as Den- targets; or “co-operative” (in U.S. manu- mark, have begun to tackle the challenge of facturing), with incentives for developing allocating the emissions within sectors. The and implementing new technology.46 Danish plan limits carbon emissions from While voluntary agreements are relative- electricity generation, with power compa- ly new, some interesting results have nies given a quota, fined for exceeding it, emerged. In Germany, where the business and permitted to sell or bank unused quo- community has committed to reducing tas. Denmark has also pioneered a “green greenhouse gas emissions 20 percent certificate” system that obliges electric util- between 1990 and 2005, the manufactur- ities to supply customers with a percentage ing and electric power sectors had achieved or quota of renewable electricity, allowing reductions of 27 and 17 percent, respec- the companies to trade quotas among tively, by 2000. UNEP and the World themselves.44 Energy Council (WEC) have identified

37 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD more than 600 voluntary projects to reduce stantial steps to reduce emissions growth. greenhouse gas emissions that are just com- China’s remarkable carbon cuts are related pleted, under way, or planned by industry. to fossil fuel subsidy reforms and energy They estimate that by 2005 these could efficiency programs—policies that are being achieve annual reductions of up to 2 billion adopted elsewhere. Mexico, India, and the tons of carbon dioxide—roughly 6 percent Philippines have set national goals to of global greenhouse gas emissions. But increase renewable energy and improve UNEP and WEC believe that even as indus- energy efficiency. Thailand and Brazil have try activity grows, governments remain too successful demand-side energy manage- reactive.47 ment programs. And natural gas vehicles While these studies suggest growing are being introduced in India and Argenti- engagement by industrial-nation govern- na, where 10 percent of the automobile ments in dealing with climate change, the fleet runs on compressed natural gas.49 IEA concludes that “there remains considerable scope for further improvements.” The Business of Enacted and proposed policies might not Climate Change be sufficient for countries to meet their Kyoto targets, and further action may be The corporate response to climate change necessary. Meanwhile, a number of munici- has undergone a major shift over the past palities are not waiting for leadership from decade. In the early 1990s, when the scien- their capitals. (See Box 2–2.) Several Amer- tific basis for climate change was less com- ican states, in addition, have initiated vol- pelling, many corporations were skeptical untary programs for tracking and reducing about whether the threat existed at all or emissions. And in August 2001, the gover- whether its impacts would be significant. By nors of six New England states and pre- the run-up to the 1997 Kyoto conference, miers of five East Canadian provinces however, some companies had softened adopted a resolution to bring their region’s their stance on the science, while those still greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by opposed to action had begun focusing on 2010 and to 10 percent below those levels the potential economic impacts.50 by 2020.48 Since Kyoto, the business landscape on Meanwhile, climate policy continues to climate change has diversified further. The take shape in the developing world, mainly high profile of that conference convinced for economic reasons. One of the U.S. gov- executives to study the problem more ernment arguments against ratifying the closely. Many concluded that the issue was Kyoto Protocol is that it “exempts” 80 per- not going away, and that by integrating it cent of the world’s population. While this into their corporate strategies they could objection ignores the fact that this 80 per- minimize the costs and risks, while at the cent accounts for only 37 percent of the same time identifying market opportunities past century’s carbon emissions, it is true that the effort to slow climate change that developing nations are not subject to would inevitably open up. In 1999, atten- the protocol’s first round of binding com- dees at the World Economic Summit in mitments. Nevertheless, research from the Davos voted climate change the most seri- World Resources Institute suggests that ous global problem facing companies in developing nations are already taking sub- coming decades—and an issue on which the

38 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD business community should play a leader- climate change and climate policy as ship role. As Kimberly O’Neill Packard and abstract and long-term, many industry Forest Reinhardt argue in the Harvard executives see immediate economic stakes Business Review, “business leaders need to in the outcome of climate deliberations. inform themselves about climate change Coal companies and other energy-intensive and think systematically about its effects on industries, facing short-term costs, have an their companies’ strategies, asset values, and obvious interest in slowing efforts to reduce investments.”51 the use of carbon-based fuels. Renewable Unlike much of the public, who still view energy companies, on the other hand, see

BOX 2–2. ARE CITIES MOVING FASTER THAN NATIONS ON CLIMATE?

By taking voluntary steps to reduce green- ed 2.5 million tons of carbon by June 2001. By house gas emissions, local governments are 1995,Toronto had cut its total carbon emis- helping strengthen the international effort to sions to 7 percent below its 1990 level, and by stabilize global climate. In the last decade, a 1996, Copenhagen reduced emissions by 22 pledge made by the city of Toronto to reduce percent from 1990. its carbon emissions by 20 percent of the 1988 More recently, the campaign has begun to level by 2005 has been copied and modified by help cities in rapidly industrializing economies city governments worldwide. fix inefficient buildings, transportation, and In the early 1990s, 13 cities in Canada, the energy systems that not only release carbon United States, Europe, and Turkey joined Toron- dioxide but also waste money and create air to in drawing up plans to slash carbon emis- pollution. For example, Cebu City, in the Philip- sions. City-to-city networking led by the pines, is calibrating the engines of all its city- Toronto-based International Council on Local owned vehicles. Local officials expect improved Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) helped to engine efficiency to cut municipal fuel costs by multiply this effort. In 1993, ICLEI launched 12 percent, roughly $60,000, annually, and to a campaign to help more local governments improve air quality. Building on this, Cebu City devise their own plans to reduce emissions. aims to cut carbon emissions to 15 percent As of October 2001, some 500 cities, responsi- below the 1994 level by 2010. ble for an estimated 8 percent of global carbon Although local governments are not party emissions, had signed up. to the climate treaty, ICLEI sends city officials Although the precise goals vary from place to key meetings. By endorsing strong targets to place, some cities are aiming higher than and quantifying success stories in emissions their national governments are. In the industri- reduction, these local authorities have received al world, many local governments have com- a fair amount of press coverage—raising public mitted to reducing emissions by 20 percent awareness that aggressive targets and time- relative to a baseline year somewhere between tables for reducing carbon emissions are 1990 and 1995; the target date for the reduc- achievable and beneficial. tions to be complete ranges from 2005 to 2010. The first cities to join the campaign have —Molly O’Meara Sheehan already measured progress. Some 110 cities and counties in the United States had eliminat- SOURCE: See endnote 48.

39 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD enormous profit potential. Automobile and extreme behavior—which included attacks energy companies derive considerable on climate scientists—backfired: BP, revenues from the status quo but see long- DuPont, Royal Dutch/Shell, Ford Motor term market opportunities in greenhouse- Company, DaimlerChrysler, Texaco, and benign technologies and fuels. The climate General Motors all withdrew from the issue is also forcing many industries to seek GCC between 1997 and 2000. The group competitive advantage through energy- and was subsequently limited to industry associ- cost-saving opportunities within their own ations, allowing individual companies to walls. Whether they exploit emerging ener- conceal their support. The GCC has also gy markets, take part in emissions trading, altered its message to support voluntary, manage the risks of future regulations, gain technology-based efforts as the centerpiece a technological edge over rivals, or enhance of any effort to address climate change.54 credibility and policy influence by demon- ExxonMobil, which continues to pub- strating environmental leadership, compa- licly and aggressively oppose the Kyoto nies are beginning to recognize their Protocol, has become the focus of a strategic interests in engaging more proac- campaign led by Greenpeace and other tively on the climate issue.52 organizations to boycott its Esso gasoline The variety of industry positions was stations in Europe. Some businesses that on display during the July 2001 negotia- have left the GCC—DaimlerChrysler, Tex- tions in Bonn. Some U.S. business groups aco, General Motors—support action on praised the Bush administration for its climate change in general but oppose the rejection of what they view as an economi- Kyoto Protocol in particular. Auto and cally risky and unnecessary agreement. energy multinationals have also supported Other companies, especially European energy policies that run counter to climate ones, criticized the U.S. government and change objectives, most visibly in the urged others to maintain the Kyoto process. United States, through the Bush adminis- Etienne Davignon, Vice Chairman of tration’s proposed energy strategy and Société Générale de Belgique and Co-chair- its emphasis on fossil fuel extraction and man of the EU-Japan Business Dialogue combustion.55 Round Table, said, “We need a protocol; Even as they support policies that would it’s indispensable.”53 prolong a carbon-intensive energy path, Such views contrast with the vocal anti- energy companies are hedging their bets by Kyoto business lobby in the United States, diversifying their portfolios to include which has been reinforced by the rhetoric renewable energy and hydrogen—in recog- of conservative think tanks such as the Cato nition that today’s multibillion-dollar mar- Institute. Some groups have also been crit- kets in these fuels could become icized for funding scientists whose work hundred-billion-dollar markets in coming had led them to a skepticism about the exis- decades. Solar, wind, and other forms of tence or seriousness of climate change. The renewable energy represent the largest most open opponent of Kyoto, the Global growth areas (in terms of percentage) of the Climate Coalition (GCC), included in its energy industry over the past decade. heyday some of the world’s most powerful Phillip Watts, Chairman of the Royal corporations and trade associations Dutch/Shell Group, argues that—based on involved with fossil fuels. But the group’s his company’s long-term scenarios to

40 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

2050—future energy needs could be met in ty to policies that reduce demand for car- radically different ways, including a revolu- bon-intensive products. Such vulnerability tionary shift to a hydrogen economy with is faced by the entire fossil fuel business, natural gas used as a bridging fuel. The which is now making capital investments group has created two new businesses— that may be rendered unsound by future Shell Renewables, a core business, and Shell climate policies. For BP and others, plans to Hydrogen—to explore these opportunities. expand oil and gas exploration and produc- In the automobile industry, Daimler- tion activities aggressively will increase their Chrysler and other major manufacturers are “carbon risk exposure”—which could cause racing to introduce the first commercial fuel them to lose a significant percentage of cell vehicles between 2003 and 2005, with their market capitalization. The investment mass production expected to begin toward strategy firm Innovest believes these risks the end of the decade.56 “strike to the very heart of the company’s BP offers an intriguing case study of an strategic direction and could, on a more energy company’s response to the climate practical basis, influence future earnings challenge. Speaking at Stanford University and shareholder value.” In the most in 1997, CEO John Browne announced extreme scenario, BP would see its earnings that “the time to consider the policy dimen- erode by as much as 5 percent over the next sions of climate change is not when the link 20 years.58 between greenhouse gases and climate change is conclusively proven but when the BP’s $100-million annual investment in possibility cannot be discounted and is clean energy equals only about 1 percent taken seriously by the society of which we of its overall expenditures of $12.5 billion. are part. We in BP have reached that point.” At the Yale School of Management While the financial world has been slow in 1998, Browne committed his company to take such factors into account, a number to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from its of leading asset management and insurance operations by 10 percent from 1990 levels firms—Swiss Re, Munich Re, Deutsche by the year 2010. As of 2001, the company Bank, Gerling, Nikko—are calling for was already halfway toward this goal, hav- greater integration of climate change into ing traded the equivalent of 4 million tons future investment and underwriting activi- of CO2 through an internal trading pro- ties. A UNEP initiative with financial lead- gram. BP has also made its solar business ers estimates that climate change impacts into one of the world’s largest, established a could cost around $300 billion annually by hydrogen division, and launched advertis- 2050. Prior to the Bonn meeting, the ini- ing campaigns that use “Beyond Petrole- tiative’s bankers and insurers—predicting a um” as the theme and solicit public new investment dynamic as capital shifts opinions on energy issues.57 “from carbon fuels toward renewable ener- Yet BP’s $100-million annual investment gy, efficiency programs, and advanced pub- in clean energy equals only about 1 percent lic transit systems”—called for national and of the company’s overall expenditures of international market mechanisms to address $12.5 billion. While this positions the com- climate change. But other industries that pany to gain market share in a growing stand to be negatively affected—from industry, it does little to reduce vulnerabili- tourism to forest products to agriculture—

41 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD have been less aware or supportive of the toring and verifying emissions, and to policy process.59 announce goals for reducing them. (See A growing element of corporate engage- Table 2–3.) Shell has met its initial target of ment on climate change is participation in reducing emissions by 10 percent below the design of a potential multibillion-dollar 1990 levels by 2002, having achieved an emissions trading market that may develop 11-percent cut by 2000. The firm has under the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. accomplished this partly through improved According to the global energy brokerage energy efficiency, reduced gas flaring, and firm NatSource, 55 million tons of green- an internal permit system that has traded house gases have already been traded on a more than a million tons of carbon dioxide pilot basis since 1996. The current size of equivalent per year. DuPont has a goal of the market is estimated by the World Bank cutting greenhouse gas emissions 65 per- at about $100 million, but it has been pro- cent from 1990 levels by 2010—and has jected to reach $250–500 billion by the end already managed a 50-percent cut, primari- of this decade. The brokerage firm Cantor ly through improved nylon manufacturing Fitzgerald and consulting giant Pricewater- methods.62 houseCoopers have teamed up to create Nongovernmental groups are partnering co2e.com, an online hub to help companies with corporations to help them address manage the transition to carbon commerce. greenhouse gases. The U.S. nonprofit Envi- (Carlton Bartels, CEO of co2e.com, and ronment Defense has joined with nine two colleagues died during the World Trade multinational corporations, including Center disaster, but the firm has resumed Canadian aluminum company Alcan and operations.)60 the Mexican oil company Pemex, to set tar- A leader in the charge toward carbon gets for reducing their emissions by over 80 trading is Richard Sandor, who helped pio- million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent neer the sulfur emissions market that has by 2010. The World Wildlife Fund and the reduced sulfur emissions by 29 percent Center for Energy and Climate Solutions since 1990. Sandor, who believes that have partnered with several multinationals, greenhouse gas allowances will become including Nike and Johnson & Johnson, to “the biggest commodities market in the reduce emissions through efficiency and world,” is working with 33 organizations— fuel switching. The World Resources Insti- including BP, DuPont, and Ford—in the tute and World Business Council for Sus- U.S. Midwest to design a Chicago Climate tainable Development have developed a Exchange that will test out the trading of common international standard for the cor- carbon at the regional level, much like corn porate accounting and reporting of green- is traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. house gas emissions.63 The voluntary market will begin trading Business opportunities from trading and credits on a pilot basis in 2002, with a near- new technologies are also prompting the term goal of reducing the emissions of par- formation of corporate coalitions aimed at ticipants—which account for a fifth of the promoting cost-effective climate policies region’s emissions—by 5 percent below rather than blocking national and interna- 1999 levels over five years.61 tional action. Thirty-seven companies, The prospect of trading has led a grow- including Boeing, Enron, Hewlett-Packard, ing number of companies to begin moni- IBM, Intel, United Technologies, and

42 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

Table 2–3. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Targets, Selected Companies

Company Target(s)

ABB Reduce GHG emissions by 1 percent each year through 2005 Alcan Reduce GHG emissions by 500,000 tons from 2001 to 2005 Alcoa Reduce GHG emissions by 25 percent from 1990 to 2010 Baxter International Reduce energy use and associated GHG emissions by 30 percent per unit of product value from 1996 to 2005 BP Reduce GHG emissions by 10 percent from 1990 to 2010 Dow Chemical Reduce energy use per pound of production by 20 percent between 2000 and 2005 DuPont Reduce GHG emissions by 65 percent from 1990 to 2010 Hold total energy use flat at 1990 levels Derive 10 percent of global energy use from renewable resources by 2010

Entergy Stabilize CO2 emissions from U.S. generating facilities at 2000 levels through 2005

Federation of Reduce CO2 emissions from electricity generation by 20 percent from 1990 Electric Power to 2010 Companies of Japan

IBM Reduce CO2 emissions from fuel and electricity use by an average annual 4 percent of baseline from 1998 to 2004 Intel Reduce PFC emissions by 10 percent from 1990 to 2010 Interface Reduce nonrenewable energy use per unit of production by 15 percent from 1996 to 2005 Johnson & Johnson Reduce GHG emissions by 7 percent from 1990 to 2010

Nike Reduce CO2 emissions by 13 percent from 1998 to 2005

Ontario Power Stabilize CO2 emissions at 1990 levels in 2000 and beyond Pechiney Reduce GHG emissions by 15 percent from 1998 to 2008–12 Shell International Reduce GHG emissions by 10 percent from 1990 to 2002

STMicroelectronics Achieve zero CO2 emissions by 2010 Suncor Reduce GHG emissions by 6 percent from 1990 to 2010

Toyota Reduce CO2 emissions by 5 percent from 1990 to 2005, by 10 percent from 1990 to 2010 TransAlta Achieve zero net GHG emissions from Canadian operations by 2024 United Technologies Reduce energy consumption as a percentage of sales by 25 percent from 1997 to 2007

SOURCE: See endnote 62.

43 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

Whirlpool, have joined the Business Envi- ter supports the pact. Coca-Cola belongs to ronmental Leadership Council. This group, the U.S. Council for International Business, an initiative of the Pew Center on Global which opposes the protocol; but a repre- Climate Change, is based on several princi- sentative of Coke’s Spanish subsidiary says, ples, including that “The Kyoto agreement “We are in line with the general idea of the represents a first step in the international Kyoto Protocol ...It’s the price of entry [to process to address climate change” and that an emissions trading system].”66 “Businesses can and should take concrete Increasingly, U.S. companies are con- steps now in the U.S. and abroad to assess cerned that the Bush administration’s disen- opportunities for emission reductions, gagement will insulate them from pressures establish and meet emission reduction to innovate and from the opportunity to objectives, and invest in new, more efficient trade emissions. The U.S. Council for products, practices and technologies.” Six- International Business, which opposes bind- teen member companies have set emissions ing restrictions, recognizes that there can- targets, and several more are in the process not be an entirely free-market approach and of creating them.64 that government must establish rules and Other business groups with proactive cli- methods for trading. Some companies mate positions include U.S. and European believe the U.S. stance will hurt the econo- Business Councils for Sustainable Energy my by giving competitors a headstart in and the Social Venture Network. The latter, developing new technologies. Thomas representing over 100 small companies, Jacob of DuPont fears that delaying cli- proclaimed in a June 2001 ad in the New mate-related decisions will cost industry York Times and other major newspapers more in the long run and “could threaten that “We must all act. We need U.S. leader- America’s economic supremacy.” Firms ship now.” Most recently, a group of 150 such as American Electric Power, Cinergy, companies, mostly European and Japanese, Enron, and Entergy are pushing the gov- has organized under the name “e-mission ernment to embrace some form of limits on 55”; counting Deutsche Telekom and lead- greenhouse gas emissions; others, such as ing insurer Gerling Group among its mem- Southern Company and Peabody Energy, bers, it has called on governments to bring continue to oppose them. Multinationals the Kyoto Protocol into force by 2002.65 like BP and Shell, meanwhile, see little sense As company views evolve, they are in having their overseas operations covered revealing a trans-Atlantic divide. While the by an agreement while their U.S. plants are fallback position of most European compa- not. As one executive with a large interna- nies is now to openly support the Kyoto tional energy company told the New York Protocol, in the United States most compa- Times, “What businesses want is policy cer- nies support the principle of climate protec- tainty. Bush has injected only turbulence.”67 tion but remain silent on the protocol Such turbulence may increase before it itself—perhaps for fear of alienating the lessens, but the long-term direction of administration. This has created a rift industry is becoming clearer. If the Kyoto between Ford and its Volvo Car unit in Protocol enters into force, this will prompt Sweden: the former publicly opposes Kyoto the private sector to invest billions of dollars because it has different standards for indus- in lower-emissions technologies and prac- trial and developing nations, while the lat- tices. As firms are better able to recognize

44 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD the opportunities as well as the risks of cli- developing countries. The Bonn agreement mate change, and to understand that fur- also did not fully address the extent to ther emissions cuts are inevitable, their which nuclear power could be used to resistance is likely to lessen, changing the achieve emission reduction targets, the spe- political dynamic. Companies will also cific rules governing emissions trading become more active as they understand that between countries, or the accounting pro- clear guidelines are needed for emissions cedures for measuring carbon sinks. Deci- trading to take off. On the whole, the busi- sions on these issues were to be finalized in ness community may become less a foot- Marrakesh and formally adopted as a pack- dragger and more an activist: working to age, together with the decisions made in shape the rules of the carbon-constrained Bonn—clearing the way for ratification.70 marketplace now taking shape.68 One of the most politically sensitive issues surrounding ratification is the poten- The Political Weather Vane tial impact of the protocol on international competitiveness. As the Marrakesh talks It is unclear how the international politics of opened, the Bush administration argued climate change will evolve in the months that the Kyoto accord would make U.S. leading up to the World Summit on Sus- industry less competitive by forcing compa- tainable Development. With terrorism and nies to adopt costly technologies. Mean- an economic downturn topping the global while, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, policy agenda, government leaders have and Industry and domestic industries are been distracted from the climate change worried that Japanese firms will be placed at negotiations. In the wake of the compro- a disadvantage if they—but not U.S. firms— mises achieved in the Bonn agreement, are obligated to reduce emissions. Several however, blocking progress has become U.S., European, and Canadian firms have diplomatically more difficult—and the ben- repeated this concern about being put at a efits of joining the regime are increasingly competitive disadvantage by shouldering seen to outweigh the potential costs. As of the financial burden of emissions constraints late 2001, there was growing momentum to that their U.S. competitors do not face.71 bring the Kyoto Protocol into force by the But recent studies suggest that the inter- end of 2002, independent of U.S. actions. national competitiveness of the EU and (See Box 2–3.) The question is whether the Japan would in fact not be substantially protocol’s remaining details can be worked weakened by implementing the Kyoto out in sufficient time to allow national gov- Protocol without the United States. In fact, ernments to ratify the pact and make it a they are likely to benefit in the short term binding international agreement.69 due to the absence of the U.S. companies The Kyoto Protocol’s “rulebook” of from the trading market, which would procedures and institutions was to be final- lower the price of an emissions permit ized in Morocco in late October and early substantially. Japan’s National Institute for November 2001. Issues to be addressed at Environmental Studies, which is affiliated Marrakesh included the election of the with the Ministry of Environment, Executive Board of the Clean Development estimates that without U.S. buyers, emis- Mechanism and the establishment of a sys- sions permit prices would drop from $69 to tem for coordinating the various funds for $23 per ton of carbon, allowing Japan to

45 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD meet the Kyoto target with a minimal responding proactively to regulation impact on global competitiveness: a reduc- through technological change. If the tion in GDP of a negligible 0.07 percent nation’s industry responds passively to relative to projections.72 energy taxes, then Japanese GDP would in Even this projection may be pessimistic, fact fall. But a more realistic scenario would for Japanese industry has a history of be for industry, especially automakers, to respond with technological innovation that results in improved productivity, reduced BOX 2–3. HOW CAN THE KYOTO energy consumption, and ultimately lower PROTOCOL ENTER INTO FORCE? prices. This is precisely how Japanese carmakers, particularly Honda, reacted to the The Kyoto Protocol does not become an U.S. clean air legislation and oil shocks of instrument of international law until it is the 1970s and 1980s—by reducing vehicle ratified by 55 countries, representing 55 emissions and enhancing car quality. Today, percent of the emissions of industrial and former Eastern bloc nations in 1990. As of Japanese carmakers have a 25-percent share October 2001, 40 countries had ratified of the U.S. car market. (Honda and Toyota the agreement. The majority of these are have been the first to market hybrid-electric developing nations, including Argentina, vehicles, which nearly double the average Mexico, Senegal, and many small island fuel economy of passenger cars, in Japan states such as Trinidad and Tobago. If the and the United States. Over 50,000 Toyota United States chooses not to ratify, entry hybrids are on the road in Japan; Honda into force may require ratification by the has sold more than 5,000 of its version in European Union, Russia, Japan, Canada, the United States.)73 and Australia (see Table)—all of whose According to a study by the Japanese governments have stated their intention consultancy Shonan Econometrics, proac- of ratifying the protocol by the 2002 Johannesburg Summit. tive implementation of the protocol by business could translate into a 0.9 percent Share of Annex I increase in Japan’s GDP, or an increase of Country 1990 $47.3 billion. Other nations could also Country Carbon Emissions benefit from the spillover effects of Japan (percent) implementing Kyoto: Southeast Asia’s GDP would increase by $11.5 billion, and United States 36.1 that of Western Europe by $13.9 billion. European Union 24.2 The study concludes that “Japan could Russia 17.4 greatly benefit its own economy by taking Japan 8.5 the initiative and going ahead with ratifica- Poland 3.0 tion of the Kyoto Protocol....To Japan, Other European nations 5.2 Canada 3.3 ratification could very well serve as an Australia 2.1 excellent springboard to break out of its New Zealand 0.2 economic slump.”74 What about Europe? Studies of the costs Total 100 and benefits of EU ratification of the Kyoto SOURCE: See endnote 69. Protocol without the United States also suggest an overall gain. According to the

46 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

Dutch consultancy ECOFYS, the EU could approach that the U.S. government has achieve 85–95 percent of its Kyoto target repeatedly resisted.76 without harming the competitiveness of its Such critiques of the Kyoto Protocol are economies, with smart policies being able to useful in identifying the challenges that lie offset the remaining competitive impacts. ahead, such as determining effective ways to The cost of meeting the Kyoto goal could monitor emissions and ensure compliance be as small as 0.06 percent of the GDP in with the treaty. But these are manageable 2010. Since climate policies reduce other air issues, not fatal flaws—and any alternatives pollutants, financial savings on end-of-pipe that have thus far been offered tend to be technologies that reduce acid rain would far less politically feasible than the regime also be realized. The study concludes that now being created. As Michael Grubb of unilateral implementation of the Kyoto Pro- Imperial College notes in a critique of Vic- tocol by the EU could give European indus- tor’s book, “there are answers, and ironical- try a head start in developing innovative ly, some may be easier to find while the technologies that reduce greenhouse gases. present U.S. administration is withdrawn Not implementing the protocol, on the from the Kyoto negotiations.” This may other hand, may lead to substantial increas- prove a prescient observation, should the es in mitigation costs in the longer term. international community succeed in bring- Professor Kornelis Blok, coauthor of the ing the treaty into force with the United report, contends that “If the U.S. does not States on the sidelines.77 ratify Kyoto and the EU and Japan do, they Indeed, insider and expert opinion on will gain a competitive advantage.”75 Kyoto calls to mind Winston Churchill’s Back in the United States, a high-level description of democracy as the worst pos- task force has been slow to produce a pro- sible form of government—except for all posed alternative to the protocol. The polit- the alternatives. Jan Pronk, the Dutch envi- ical expediency of terming the treaty ronment minister who led the Bonn talks to unworkable has found intellectual support their successful conclusion, claims that among economists who use conventional “Kyoto is the only game in town.” In a models that project high costs of compli- study for Climate Strategies, a climate ance, and who call for a go-slow approach. expert network created by the Shell Foun- The U.S. government has also selectively dation, Benito Muller and colleagues at the drawn on the arguments of commentators Oxford Institute for Energy Studies exam- such as David Victor, a Senior Fellow with ine other alternatives being considered by the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Rela- the U.S. government, such as emissions tions and long-time observer of the inter- intensity targets and price caps on emissions national climate process. In The Collapse of trading. They conclude that these are not the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow likely to be acceptable to the international Global Warming, Victor contends that the community and that, given its reasons for treaty is unlikely to enter into force, and disengagement, the United States is unlike- that its failure will offer the opportunity to ly to come up with a credible, viable alter- create a more realistic alternative. Arguing native to Kyoto.78 that a worldwide trading system is impracti- If Kyoto is rescued, can it eventually cal, he calls instead for a focus on national bring the world’s leading emitter back in? policies such as emissions taxes—an Another Climate Strategies study, led by

47 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

Michael Grubb, argues that in the absence Harvard University’s Kennedy School of of credible alternatives, the Kyoto Protocol Government points out, lessons from the remains the best way to achieve global effort to slow the loss of the ozone layer action on climate change. The report con- can help—yet are being overlooked. The tends that the EU should lead an interna- 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances tional effort, joining with Japan and Russia, That Deplete the Ozone Layer, signed in to bring the protocol into force, and that the United States by the Reagan adminis- the United States will then rejoin. This, the tration and now endorsed by 177 countries, authors argue, will: was successful not because of its initial • provide a long-term structure for con- targets but because it was flexible enough trolling emissions and strengthen the to allow industry and government to accept international framework for continuing firm goals in the first place, and allowed action; the world to move forward in a common • demonstrate industrial-country leader- direction.81 ship, making it easier to bring other Over the course of 15 years, the Mon- nations on board at a later date; and treal Protocol’s goals have been revised • bring certainty to the private sector, fos- five times, in accord with expert advice tering the technological development and advances in science and technology. and spread of energy-efficient and low- This adaptive approach prompted an inten- carbon technologies.79 sive effort by private industry to reduce the use of ozone-depleting chemicals and In the absence of credible alternatives, the develop substitutes and to identify com- Kyoto Protocol remains the best way to mercial opportunities for phasing out these achieve global action on climate change. chemicals. By including financial incentives and technological support through a Multi- Even with the United States initially on lateral Fund, the protocol gradually and the sidelines, the study adds, commercial equitably phased in binding commitments pressures will push U.S. private-sector for China, India, and other developing investment toward lower-carbon technolo- countries. Since 1987, use of ozone-deplet- gies. And by demonstrating the economic ing chemicals has declined 90 percent benefits of various climate policies, EU globally at a modest cost. Applying this nations can influence the implementation experience to the climate change process, of similar domestic policies in the United Parson recommends a focus on providing States, whether or not the government has incentives for industry to innovate, and signed on. In other words, “keeping believes that domestic politics may force Kyoto” could be the best way to prompt the United States to become more engaged action both within and without the United on the issue.82 States.80 A more enlightened U.S. approach This debate should not distract decision- appears to be emerging not from the White makers from the greater long-term chal- House but from the Senate, where biparti- lenge of making major emissions san support exists for domestic action and reductions, and engaging the United States international engagement on the issue. In and the developing world in this effort, August 2001, the Senate Foreign Relations over coming decades. As Edward Parson of Committee unanimously called on the

48 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD

United States to continue participating in States to return to the agreement.84 international negotiations in a manner that Climate policy does not operate in a vac- is consistent with the economic interests of uum, and the international and domestic the United States and that includes devel- processes are likely to be affected in some oping nations—either through the Kyoto manner by the terrorist attacks and signs of agreement or through an alternative bind- economic recession that emerged in late ing pact. Congress has also considered sev- 2001. A shift in focus toward countering eral climate technology initiatives, the terrorism may lessen scrutiny of the global addition of carbon dioxide to existing clean effort to address climate change. Concerns air legislation, “cap-and-trade” programs about a recession or energy security, mean- for controlling domestic carbon emissions, while, may inhibit attempts to agree on, and “early action” programs to ensure that much less implement, a treaty with uncer- companies that lower emissions ahead of tain economic implications. regulations receive credit for doing so. At the same time, there is growing These initiatives could keep the United awareness, even in traditional foreign policy States in parallel with Kyoto, and serve as a circles, that climate change shares charac- useful reminder that the climate battle will teristics with terrorism: it is a new and ultimately be won or lost at home, through looming threat to global security and implementation of domestic policies. (See human well-being of which experts have also Chapter 8.)83 warned for more than a decade, it requires But the international framework remains a response with short-term costs that are essential, and the United States appears to worth bearing, and it cuts across borders have lost its prior influence over nations like and thus merits greater international collab- Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand oration. Indeed, the breakthrough in Bonn in the climate negotiations. Indeed, the was widely seen as a triumph of multilater- U.S. administration’s sudden withdrawal alism over unilateralism—an approach since created a strong backlash with the foreign emphasized in the global response to ter- ministries of these nations, with the inad- rorism. The imperative of cooperation has vertent effect of pushing them toward been stressed by Nobel laureate Joseph agreement with the European Union— Stiglitz of Columbia University, who one leaving the United States isolated. This has day after receiving his award for economics been especially true for Japan, for whom in October 2001 called upon all govern- salvaging the Kyoto Protocol is an impor- ments to immediately adopt cost-effective tant matter of saving face, and who may climate policies and create an agenda for finally be emerging as a major player in cli- global collective action.85 mate diplomacy. In October 2001, the The Johannesburg Summit provides an Japanese government announced that its extraordinary opportunity to move the Diet would seek ratification of the protocol climate change agenda forward. Bringing in early 2002; Prime Minister Koizumi has the Kyoto Protocol into force before the directed his Cabinet to work out the details, Summit would be of critical symbolic impor- while several agencies have been instructed tance, signaling to governments, businesses, to prepare new domestic policies to imple- and civil society that the international ment the pact. Japanese officials plan to process to address one of our most pressing continue to work to persuade the United global environmental issues is gaining, not

49 State of the World 2002 MOVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA FORWARD losing, momentum. Many observers doubt ing in 2001 would breathe new life into the whether this will be accomplished. But many process. As with the science, so with the pol- also doubted that negotiators would reach itics of climate change: we can expect sur- agreement in Kyoto, or that the Bonn meet- prises in the future.

WORLD SUMMIT PRIORITIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE

➣ Bring the Kyoto Protocol into force before the World Summit. ➣ Account for climate change developments in reviewing Agenda 21 implementation in the areas of atmosphere, energy, finance, industry, and technology. ➣ Reaffirm the importance of the IPCC Third Assessment Report as the authoritative starting point for policymakers seeking to implement the Kyoto Protocol. ➣ Set forth a blueprint for post-Johannesburg climate negotiations, emphasizing the need to re-engage the United States, consider a second period of emissions cuts, and expand the group of countries with emissions targets. ➣ Work to establish a voluntary Global Climate Compact, modeled after the Global Compact established in 2000 between the United Nations and the private sector, that challenges business leaders to commit to accelerated deployment of energy-efficient products, renewable energy, and hydrogen and fuel cell technologies.

50 Chapter 3

Farming in the Public Interest Brian Halweil

The fragile hillsides and forest edges of improve the health of their land, including Central America are home to some of the planting grass hedges to control erosion; poorest and hungriest people in the western rotating corn with beans, peas, and other hemisphere. Hybrid corn seeds, synthetic legumes that add nitrogen to the soil; and fertilizers, and other technologies that covering the ground with vegetation year- helped raise food production elsewhere are round to reduce water and soil loss. Between not available or affordable to many people 1972 and 1979, the amount of corn har- in these communities. Even where these vested from the average hectare jumped technologies have been used, the results from 0.4 tons to 2.5 tons, without the use of have not always been optimal—they have any chemical fertilizer or pesticides.2 eliminated local crop varieties, polluted The initiative, led by the U.S.-based water supplies, depleted the soil, and left development organization World Neigh- families in debt. In the 1970s, food pro- bors, was designed not so much to introduction had stagnated throughout the duce particular technologies as it was to region. With more and more villagers flee- boost the capacity of farmers to innovate, ing for nearby cities, residents of places like experiment, and “become the protagonists Guinope, Honduras, often referred to their of their own development,” according to home as a “dying town”—a common Roland Bunch, coordinator of the effort. refrain throughout the region.1 Even after World Neighbors left in 1979, By the 1980s and 1990s, however, towns the corn yield nearly doubled again in San throughout the region had in many ways Martin, to 4.5 tons by 1994—on a par with been reborn. Take San Martin Jilotepeque, a the average U.S. yield—because farmers town in the central highlands of Guatemala. continued to explore better ways to farm. In 1972, farmers there began to adopt a Yields of beans, the other staple crop, grew series of low-cost innovations to help ninefold—from 170 kilograms per hectare State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST to 1,500—between 1972 and 1994. Vil- people who inhabit them were hit hardest, lagers adapted many techniques for their but the thousands of farms throughout own needs, and in many cases developed Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua that entirely new systems of production, from were touched by Campesino a Campesino crop rotations to cheese-making to organic withstood the force of the storm much bet- crop production.3 ter than others, retaining more topsoil and Emigration from San Martin to nearby more of their crop. Landslides were three cities dropped 90 percent as more produc- times more severe—in terms of area affect- tive farms paid higher wages and needed ed—on conventional plots.6 more workers. Nutrition, public health, and This experience—in which farms anchor literacy all improved as additional food and hillsides, store carbon, house biodiversity, income led to greater investment in health provide stable rural incomes, and yield food care and education. Soil quality improved, without expensive or toxic inputs—stands tree plantings increased, and water quality in stark contrast to the type of farming that benefited from reduced agrochemical use. prevails in much of the world today. As cur- As the amount of organic matter in the soils rently practiced, agriculture delivers a great improved, so did resistance to drought, deal of food while it wears down ecosys- making farmers less susceptible to climate tems, while people go hungry, and while variability—a growing problem, as defor- rural communities wither. estation in the region has made the rains The growing costs of this “destructive” more erratic. Farmers became more food system are pushing farmers, scientists, involved in local decisionmaking and civic politicians, and consumers all over the responsibilities, and many of them got jobs world toward a very different model—what as agricultural extension agents, spreading might be called a “regenerative” food sys- their knowledge to other communities tem—that better serves the public interest. throughout Central America.4 This new model is also sometimes called In fact, this experience of healthier soils, “multifunctional” or “agroecological.” In higher yields, higher wages, and improved this vision, farms function more like self- prospects was carried to hundreds of towns sufficient ecosystems and depend less on throughout the region by thousands of chemical inputs—a shift that will reconcile farmers sharing knowledge with other farm- agriculture’s tension with the environment ers, a movement known as Campesino a while offering hope for poor farmers Campesino. In Guinope, corn yields around the world. And rather than just dri- increased from 0.6 tons to 2.4 tons ving tractors and spraying ammonia, farm- between 1981 to 1989, and reached nearly ers play an active role in agricultural 3 tons by 1994. Elias Zelaya of nearby research and decisionmaking, a change that Pacayas, Honduras, says that “now, no one will help revitalize rural communities. ever talks of leaving.”5 Finally, the food chain will also look differ- Perhaps the most surprising benefit to ent, with consumers buying more food the region came in 1998—two decades directly from farmers and caring more after the project ended—when Hurricane about the source of their food. Mitch dumped 2 meters of rain on Central These were the sorts of ambitious goals America, wiping out nearly all crops in for agriculture that participants at the Earth some areas. Hillsides and the mostly poor Summit in Rio de Janeiro envisioned 10

52 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST years ago. Implementation of these goals in mists tried to put a price tag on the cost of the last decade, however, has fallen far short. modern farming in the United Kingdom, The upcoming World Summit in Johannes- and they came up with a conservative figure burg offers an important opportunity to of more than $2 billion each year. The esti- regain the momentum. In a few cases, gov- mate included the costs of removing pesti- ernments are supporting such a shift by clos- cides and other agrochemicals from ing the wide gap in women’s access to drinking water, the damage from soil ero- agricultural resources, eliminating pesticide sion, and the medical costs of food poison- subsidies, reducing trade distortions, or ing and “mad cow” disease, but it did not using any number of other policies. The syn- include the more than $4 billion of govern- ergy between different farming practices or ment subsidies paid to farmers or the bil- policies fortunately makes the task less lions in health care costs due to poor food daunting. Substitutes for agrochemical choices. Still, the figure equaled 90 percent inputs, for instance, will not only be good of what British farmers earn each year. The for the ecological performance of agricul- study’s lead author, Jules Pretty of the Uni- ture, they will benefit poor farmers who can- versity of Essex, concluded that people in not afford expensive inputs. In general, the the United Kingdom pay three times for same policies that will improve farmers’ eco- their food: once when they subsidize farm- nomic prospects, such as more secure land ers, a second time when they pay to clean tenure and credit institutions, will also speed up the mess from polluting farm practices, the spread of regenerative or ecological and again when they buy food at the check- farming practices. The successes remain scat- out counter. Costs like these—to ecosys- tered, but they offer principles that can be tems, rural communities, and society as a applied widely to better meet the needs of whole—are not confined to the United the land and the people who depend on it.7 Kingdom.9 Many of these costs grew out of the The Rise of “cheap food policies” of Europe and North Dysfunctional Farming America after World War II. (A more accurate name might be a “mass food policy,” There is no doubt that modern farming has with an emphasis on quantity rather than demonstrated great capacity to amass quality that generates many hidden costs.) mountains of homogenous commodities— The policies included government support evidenced by large increases in production for domestic crop production in an effort in many parts of the world and falling com- not so much to prop up rural communities modity prices over the past 50 years. (See as to assure affordable food for working- Figure 3–1.) This is no small achievement. class citizens. This encouraged overproduc- But the same farms have generally wrought tion by inspiring a single-minded focus on a great deal of environmental and social extracting as much crop as possible from a dysfunction. Nations have used food out- given plot of land, unintentionally margin- put as the sole measuring stick of agricul- alizing considerations of how food was pro- tural success for so long that it has become duced and who benefited. Several decades difficult to comprehend the price we pay for later, the developing world embarked on a ignoring all other criteria.8 similar course that focused on production Recently a team of agricultural econo- at any cost—the package of improved seeds,

53 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST

Per Capita Production Index Food Price Index els of output, contem- (1989–90=100) (1960=100) porary farmers have 120 160 raised this transforma- Production tion to a new plane. 100 For example, whereas 120 Chinese farmers were 80 using some 10,000 varieties of wheat in 60 80 1949, that number had declined to 1,000 by the 1970s, and to 40 Food Prices (based on 1999) 40 about 300 varieties today. The 14 leading 20 varieties occupy more Source: FAO, IMF, World Bank than 40 percent of 0 0 China’s wheat ﬁelds. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Of the 7,000 crop Figure 3–1. Per Capita Food Production and species that have been Agricultural Commodity Prices, 1961–2000 domesticated by humans, a mere 30 agrochemicals, and irrigation known as the species provide an estimated 90 percent of Green Revolution. The intentions, as in the global calorie intake—indeed, wheat, corn, North, were good—more food to feed and rice provide more than half—and occu- hungry mouths. But they neglected an py the vast majority of global crop area, a important fact about hunger around the pattern that leaves farmers and the global world: producing more food does not auto- food supply vulnerable to erratic weather or matically eradicate hunger.10 pest outbreaks.12 At the same time, farmers gradually Wildlife populations generally decline began contributing to some of today’s most when farmland replaces forests or other nat- widespread ecological problems—including ural ecosystems, but the less diverse the farm, contamination of waterways, biodiversity the smaller the homes and food sources for decline, the spread of toxic chemicals, and wildlife. A recent assessment noted a marked climate change. Ecologist David Tilman at decline in the diversity of “landscape struc- the University of Minnesota and colleagues tures” in industrial nations over the last 50 recently suggested that in coming decades, years as farmers removed stonewalls, industrial farming will rival climate change hedgerows, grass strips, ponds, windbreaks, as a source of “massive, irreversible envi- and trees to accommodate the machinery ronmental impacts.”11 used on larger and less diverse plots. The That agriculture and the environment populations of nine species of farmland birds always seem to be at odds is more unfortu- in the United Kingdom fell by more than nate than inevitable. From its roots more half between 1970 and 1995.13 than 10,000 years ago, agriculture has But monoculture does perhaps its great- always represented a transformation of est damage when it spills out of the ﬁeld. nature. But in search of ever increasing lev- Consider the U.S. Midwest, one of the

54 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST most productive agricultural regions Million Tons on the planet and a model for farm 160 practices elsewhere. At any given point in time, over 80 percent of the crop- 120 land in states like Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana is planted in just two species: corn or soybeans. This necessitates 80 heavy pesticide and fertilizer use, since monocultures invite pests and draw a 40 lot of nutrients out of the soil.14 Locally, chemical use raises levels of Source: FAO nitrates and pesticides (both hazardous 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 to public health) in groundwater and reduces soil quality; several decades of Figure 3–2. World Fertilizer Use, 1950–2000 heavy chemical fertilizer use has acidi- fied many midwestern soils, a condition world’s other major agricultural areas. that leaches out key nutrients and compro- Rivers, lakes, wetlands, and other bodies of mises the long-term productivity of water that drain farming regions have the region. Worldwide, farmers use 10 become repositories for excess agricultural times more fertilizer today than in 1950, nutrients, which alter the composition of and spend roughly 17 times as much— species in water and on land, favoring some adjusted for inflation—on pesticides. (See organisms and driving others into extinc- Figures 3–2 and 3–3.) Yet the effectiveness tion. Deadly algae blooms and coral reef of these applications has plummeted—a destruction related to farm pollution have tenfold increase in fertilizer use has coincid- become common in coastal areas on all ed with just a threefold increase in food continents, and dead zones have emerged production, while the share of the harvest in the Baltic and Black Seas that are even lost to pests remains largely the same as in larger than the one in the Gulf of Mexico.17 1950 despite the use of much greater quan- Beyond outright pollution, industrial tities of pesticide.15 Since large monocultures do not Billion Dollars make very efficient use of inputs, nutri- 35 (1999 dollars) Source: Agranova ent runoff from midwestern farms leaks 30 into the Mississippi and ultimately con- centrates in the Gulf of Mexico. Once 25 there, the excess nutrients help to pro- 20 duce algae blooms that suffocate ocean 15 life in a “dead zone” that at times covers over 18,000 square kilometers and 10 16 has decimated local fisheries. 5 The Midwest has a long history of this sort of food production, but the 0 same pattern—and the associated 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1999 problems—is emerging in most of the Figure 3–3. Global Pesticide Sales, 1950–99

55 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST

farming has placed particularly heavy dysfunctional our food system has become demands on water resources. Much of the is the fact that farmers, as a group, are the growth in food production in the last half- poorest people on the planet. century was built on the expansion of Of the 1.2 billion people worldwide who irrigated area, which grew from 100 million earn a dollar a day or less, 75 percent work hectares in 1950 to 274 million in 1999. and live in rural areas. Across a wide range Today, the 17 percent of the world’s crop- of nations in Africa, Latin America, and land that is irrigated yields more than Asia, poverty is considerably more prevalent 40 percent of the world’s food. Continued in rural areas than in cities. Even in the expansion of irrigated area with little United States, the rural poverty rate is 23 regard for water conservation is no longer percent higher, and in many areas farm fam- realistic in most of the world in the face of ilies depend on food donations from social growing competition with nonfarm services agencies, church pantries, and soup demands and mounting concern over the kitchens. Rural indicators of income, impact of large dams.18 health, education, and political participation continue to lag far behind urban indi- Perhaps the strongest evidence that our cators. Ironically, hunger is also food system is dysfunctional is the fact concentrated in rural areas, worsened by that farmers are the poorest people on poorer access to a safe water supply and san- the planet. itation. Although generally on the decline, hunger persists in much of the developing Northern China provides one dramatic world for between 800 million and 1.1 bil- case. In recent decades, continuous crop- lion people. And in sub-Saharan Africa, the ping of irrigated corn and wheat has spread share and the absolute number of hungry in this breadbasket of the world’s most pop- children have actually increased in the last ulous nation, putting tremendous pressure two decades.20 on water resources. Today, water tables in From Brazil to Bangladesh, such dismal northern China are falling 1–1.5 meters prospects have fueled a mass exodus from each year as farmers pump more water out rural areas as the chance to make a living as than is replenished by rainfall. Water deﬁcits a farmer disappears. This shift is not surpris- are growing in all other irrigated regions as ing, considering that most of the money in well, including the Indian subcontinent, the food business now ﬂows to cities and the western United States, and across factories, not the farm. In 1950, for North Africa and the Middle East. Nearly instance, American farmers captured over 10 percent of the world’s grain harvest is 50¢ of the average dollar that an American now produced by drawing down water sup- spent on food. By 1997 they were getting plies, like money from an overdrawn back just 7¢. The vast majority of the money now account. Such overuse also means a drain goes to food processors, food marketers, on the water available to natural ecosys- and agricultural input suppliers—a pattern tems: water use for irrigation threatens mirrored around the world. Part of this has more than half of the nearly 1,000 major to do with the fact that today people eat wetlands recognized as vitally important by more packaged and prepared foods that the international community.19 bear little resemblance to the original crop Perhaps the strongest evidence of how harvested by the farmer. But it is also due to

56 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST farming’s growing reliance on expensive steeply sloping hillsides, or other lands inputs and machinery, as well as the rise of unsuitable for modern food production. agribusiness “cartels” that leave little room These “marginal” or “less-favored” areas— for farmers to make a profit. Global integra- the Sahel of Africa, the hills of the Andes, or tion of food production has intensified the rainforests of Indonesia—now house these economic pressures that are fueling the bulk of the rural poor and the world’s the exodus from the countryside.21 hungry.23 Some agricultural scientists hope to find Hunger Amidst Plenty a solution to this problem at the genetic level—engineering crops to thrive in a In 1996, delegates at the World Food Sum- wider range of environments—although to mit in Rome committed to cutting world date the technology has proved largely irrel- hunger in half by 2015—a significant evant to the needs of the world’s hungry. retreat from a 1974 goal to eradicate (See Box 3–1.) “Throughout the world, hunger within a decade. In 2001, the U.N. poor farmers are seldom limited by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) genetic potential of the crop,” notes declared that at the current pace, even the Roland Bunch, who is now with less ambitious goal would not be reached COSECHA, an agricultural consulting for more than 60 years, too late for many of group based in Honduras. A given corn the world’s poor.22 variety might yield 5 tons per hectare under How can a sizable chunk of the world ideal conditions, but the same variety plant- remain hungry when food production ed in depleted and drought-prone soils soared in the last half-century, modestly might yield less than 1 ton per hectare. outpacing population growth? The growth According to Bunch, who has worked for in global food production is in some ways a decades with farmers in Africa, Latin Amer- less important consideration than our ica, and Asia, “ecological conditions, like capacity to boost yields where food is need- soil fertility and water availability, are their ed most, particularly where conventional major constraints”—constraints that cannot farming techniques have failed. be readily overcome by genetic improve- Many of the world’s hungry people have ment, whether through biotechnology or been unable to plug into the standard more traditional means. To help the poor approach to raising food production— farmer, innovations must reduce these eco- genetically uniform fields supported by logical constraints with low out-of-pocket chemical cocktails—because it was too costs, while building the resilience and sta- expensive or inappropriate for local condi- bility of production and allowing sufficient tions, or because of a lack of land, market flexibility so that they can be used in diverse access, and other constraints. Since existing ecological settings.24 tools have not worked for these people, The big gains for these farmers will come conventional agriculture has largely given from taking advantage of “free” biological up on them and assumed they will be better services, including nitrogen-fixing (or legu- off moving to a city or doing something minous) plants such as beans or clover, the besides farming. It is estimated that almost nutrient cycling abilities of soil microbes, 1.8 billion people in developing nations live and beneficial insects—an approach now in forests and woodlands, arid regions, widely referred to as agroecology. In many

57 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST ways, this is the most sophisticated approach package of inputs that is deployed in the to farming because it depends on an intimate same way everywhere, an agroecological understanding of ecological interactions in approach depends on principles whose spe- the farm landscape. The best use of local cific application varies by site.25 resources and local knowledge substitutes The importance of this approach for poor for chemicals and techno-fixes. Instead of a farmers has been confirmed by a recent sur-

BOX 3–1. A BIOTECH FIX FOR HUNGER?

Have you heard of Golden Rice? It’s the yellow- tool that holds some real potential for agricul- tinted strain of a staple food that has been ture. But its current emphasis bears little rele- genetically engineered to contain beta carotene, vance to the needs of poor farmers and the and that could be a blessing for the hundreds world’s hungry. of millions of people in the developing world The United States, Canada, and Argentina who lack enough vitamin A to lead healthy lives. contain 98 percent of the global area of geneti- (Beta carotene is the precursor of vitamin A, an cally engineered (or transgenic) crops. The especially important nutrient for children.) biotechnology industry has funneled the vast Worldwide, 100–140 million children suffer majority of its investments into crops and some degree of vitamin A deficiency, a condi- traits designed for large-scale, mechanized tion that can suppress the immune system, farms of the First World—soybeans engineered cause blindness, and, in extreme cases, even kill. to tolerate herbicide spraying or corn that Unfortunately, the average person would churns out its own insecticides. This is not a have to consume an unreasonable amount of big surprise, considering the technology is Golden Rice every day—some 9 kilograms of largely controlled by the private sector and cooked rice, 12 times the normal intake—to defined by a landscape of patents and other get the necessary vitamins. Some nutritionists proprietary obstacles. A report from the U.N. argue that it would make more sense to help Development Programme recently acknowl- poor people grow green vegetables, which pro- edged this commercial reality, but clung to the duce more beta-carotene than Golden Rice hope that biotech could play a large role if only does as well as various other nutrients com- given the chance. pletely lacking in rice, Golden or otherwise. If there is a role for biotechnology in Moreover, beta carotene can only be convert- improving the way we farm and in reducing ed to vitamin A in the body of an already well hunger, it may be as an informational rather nourished person. (Body fat and some other than an engineering tool. The ability to map nutrients are necessary in the reaction from and study the genetic code of agricultural beta carotene to vitamin A.) Geneticist Richard plants—the field called genomics—can greatly Lewontin notes that “the developers of Golden enhance traditional breeding or improve our Rice have not dealt with this problem in their understanding of how plants respond to publicity releases.” drought and disease. This role for biotechnolo- The much-touted promise and the sad real- gy may ultimately prove less risky—and more ity of Golden Rice mirror the broader discus- palatable—than swapping genes between whol- sion of the role that genetic engineering may ly unrelated species. play in eradicating hunger. There is no doubt that biotechnology is an extremely powerful SOURCE: See endnote 24.

58 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST vey by University of Essex researchers Jules been obscured by prevailing farm practices. Pretty and Rachel Hine of over 200 agricul- Consider sustainable rice intensification tural projects in the developing world that (SRI), which confounds traditional rice depended on ecological approaches. They growing in a number of ways. Rather than found that for all the projects—9 million grow rice plants in clumps in flooded fields, farms, covering nearly 30 million hectares— SRI transplants seedlings at a much yields increased an average of 93 percent, younger age, spaces individual plants wide- and substantially more in some cases. Most ly, periodically waters the field, and aerates important, a majority of these projects suc- the soil throughout the season. These rela- ceeded in boosting production under tively simple changes mean that the plants adverse conditions, in marginal areas where develop much more extensive root systems, everything else had failed.26 with additional strength to withstand One particularly useful principle for rais- drought and disease; flooding, it turns out, ing production in these areas is the use of can suffocate and stunt the roots. Typical leguminous crops to boost soil fertility. yields for SRI, which has been used by Whereas First World farms face nutrient thousands of farmers in all major rice-grow- overload, nutrient shortages plague Third ing regions, are 6–10 tons per hectare, sev- World farms. Annual rates of depletion for eral times the 2-ton average for rice grown the principal plant nutrients (nitrogen, phos- in much of the world.28 phorus, and potassium) range from 40–60 Where the extra labor needed for certain kilograms per hectare in Latin America to agroecological techniques is not available, well above 60 kilograms per hectare in parts adoption of these techniques can be of Africa. In East Africa, an estimated slowed. In certain parts of Asia, for instance, 50,000 farmers who cannot afford chemical farmers have abandoned SRI techniques for fertilizers are sowing several different legu- this reason, despite the large potential minous tree crops (such as sesbania or increases in yields and profits. In such cases, tephrosia trees) during the fallow season as a farmers can emphasize innovations that way to boost the yield of the subsequent require the least labor (adding legumes to crop. Such “improved fallows” can often the rotation, for instance) over practices boost corn yields two- to fourfold in the fol- that require more labor, such as regularly lowing season, while also reducing pest pres- aerating the soil.29 sures, yielding fuelwood and animal fodder, Perhaps the most important testing and improving soil health. The improved fal- ground for any attempt to eradicate hunger low system also lends itself to local adapta- is so-called rain-fed areas—the agricultural tion—farmers can grow trees for differing equivalent of inner cities. These arid regions lengths of time or can plant them with other without irrigation are home to a dispropor- crops—increasing the likelihood of success tionate share of the world’s hungry, and in a wide range of circumstances.27 nearly half of the projects in the University Some might argue that doubling or of Essex survey took place in these areas. tripling yields is less impressive when yields One project focused on boosting food are starting from the low levels found in security in the Sahelian countries of much of the developing world. But an eco- Africa—a region that includes Ethiopia, logical approach may in some cases hold Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Somalia and that significant untapped productivity that has is characterized by erratic rainfall, low

59 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST natural soil fertility, and high rates of deser- Clearly, for this sort of farming to thrive, tification. The Sahel is also one of the most farmers will need to control resource use entrenched pockets of hunger on the plan- and other decisions in a way that has not et: more than half the children in several always been common. A lack of such nations are chronically malnourished. Near- involvement is one of the main reasons that ly 16,000 farmers on 26,000 hectares used many low-cost but high-yielding farming a combination of measures to check erosion systems do not flourish in the first place, and boost the fertility and water-holding particularly since the success of any ecolog- capacity of the soil, which resulted in a sus- ical farming technique depends on location- tained tripling of both millet and peanut specific knowledge and adaptation. yields compared with control farms. In For instance, improving the availability drought years—when hunger tends to of water often depends on greater involve- deepen—these practices also resulted in ment of farmers groups and cooperation less severe and less frequent crop failures. In between farmers. In Sri Lanka, a pilot general, agroecological systems exhibit program began in 1981 to improve water more stable levels of productivity over time management in the irrigation scheme of than chemical-intensive systems—a sort Gal Oya—the largest and most disorga- of risk management that results from nized system in the nation—by giving local strengthening the ecological infrastructure farmers organizations control over the of the farm.30 timing and distribution of water releases. Since mainstream agricultural research These managerial changes alone doubled has tended to neglect these arid areas—the water use efficiency, so that twice as much conventional approach has been to focus on cropland could be served with available irrigated areas because they have generally water. In combination with improvements offered more stable and higher crop pro- in agricultural practices, the amount of duction—many of the relevant strategies rice produced per cubic meter of water will have to grow out of local innovation. released from the reservoir quadrupled. On at least 100,000 hectares in Niger and Based on these results, the government Burkina Faso, a farmer innovation called decided in 1988 to hand management of tassas (or zaï holes) has tripled yields on irrigation systems nationwide over to local land that has generally been considered too water users groups.32 infertile, dry, and cracked for most agricul- More recently, during a drought in tural endeavors. Tassas are small pits dug in 1997, when the government considered the soil, filled with manure, and then plant- suspending rice production completely, Gal ed once they fill with rain. Households Oya farmers organizations were given the using this technique have shifted from not opportunity to proceed with the small having enough food for half the year to amount of water available. They were able producing a surplus of 153 kilograms annu- to cultivate the whole area, and harvested ally. These small schemes cost less than an average to better-than-average crop. large-scale irrigation projects, are easier to This is the sort of increase in water produc- manage from the bottom up, build on tra- tivity that Sandra Postel of the Global Water ditional knowledge of climate and hydrolo- Policy Project says will be required to cope gy, and are often the only ways for the very with limited world freshwater supplies in poor to get irrigation.31 coming decades.33

60 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST

Perhaps no other group commands as used. Roughly 100 million farm families— little control over agricultural decisions as about 500 million people—lack ownership women. In the developing world, women or owner-like rights to the land they culti- tend most of the fields, plant most of the vate, including a near majority of agricul- seed, pull most of the weeds, haul most of tural populations in South and Southeast the water for crops and family, harvest most Asia, Central and South America, and of the food, and then cook most of it. Their Southern and Eastern Africa. (See Table role as nutritional gatekeeper has swelled as 3–1.) They have little incentive to build up more men migrate to towns and cities— their soils, plant tree crops, or adopt many nearly 40 percent of households in rural of the other agroecological techniques that India, for example, are headed by women. require long-term investment, even when Yet rural development programs consistent- such practices may be in their best interest. ly overlook women, targeting extension, In the case of improved fallows in East credit, and other services at men. Women Africa, the poorest farmers have difficulty own just 2 percent of land worldwide; even changing to the new system because they where they do, their ability to use it is ham- lack credit services and they need some cash pered by limited access to agricultural infra- flow until the fallow begins to pays off; structure, credit, and extension. In Kenya, obtaining credit often depends on owning Malawi, Sierra Leone, Zambia, and Zim- some land for collateral.36 babwe, for example, women do most of the farming, yet receive less than 10 percent of Rural development programs consistently the credit awarded to smallholders and just overlook women, targeting extension, 1 percent of the farm credit overall.34 credit, and other services at men. Such discrimination means women are less able or willing to invest in the land. Liz The participation of farmers in agricul- Alden Wily, a political scientist in East tural research can often make the difference Africa, argues that lack of secure landown- between success and failure in reducing ership rights for women is the most signifi- hunger. This requires building the capacity cant obstacle to reducing hunger and of local people to experiment, innovate, and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. Yields of better understand their ecological sur- maize, beans, and cowpeas could be roundings—a radical shift for many agricul- increased by over 20 percent in that region tural institutions, which still tend to regard by giving women equal control over agri- farmers as a relatively marginal part of the cultural inputs and equal access to exten- agricultural R&D machine. The irony, sion services. In Kenya, a new weeding according to agricultural sociologist Ann technique raised crop yields by 56 percent Waters-Bayer, who recently surveyed farmer on women’s plots when the women con- innovations in sub-Saharan Africa, is that trolled the output, but by only 15 percent often the best place to look for solutions on men’s plots when women weeded but to the problems faced by farmers is in the proceeds went to men.35 the fields of neighboring farmers who have Women are not the only marginalized been wrestling with the same problems group in this respect. In most nations, an for years.37 elite minority owns most of the farmland, As noted earlier, in San Martin in and largely determines how that land is Guatemala, crop yields continued to

61 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST

Table 3–1. Land Distribution in Selected Countries and Worldwide

Country Description

Zimbabwe Some 70,000 whites (0.5 percent of the population) own 70 percent of the land; 4,000 whites own nearly one third of the farmland. South Africa Blacks, who account for 75 percent of the population, occupy 15 percent of the land. Namibia Some 4,000 whites (less than 1 percent of the population) own 44 percent of the territory. Brazil Just 3 percent of the population owns two thirds of the land. India Some 9 percent of the farm population owns 44 percent of the agricultural land. United States Only 16 percent of farmers control 56 percent of all the land. Worldwide In 28 of 44 nations surveyed by the International Labour Organisation, the top 10 percent of landowners controlled over 40 percent of the land.

SOURCE: See endnote 36. increase dramatically long after World large nations like the United States and Neighbors staff left, and some 80–90 differ- India—farming to build up rather than ent agricultural innovations were document- erode ecosystems offers widespread envi- ed in the villages studied, including two new ronmental benefits.39 nitrogen-fixing crops, two new species of Consider the relatively simple technique grass used for erosion barriers, marigolds of planting two varieties of the same crop in used for control of parasitic worms, and one field. In China, when farmers have homemade sprinklers for irrigation. In Latin replaced the standard monoculture with America, only 30 percent of households two rice varieties, pest pressures have plum- who have participated in farmer field schools meted, allowing elimination of pesticide still suffer food shortages, compared with use. (A side benefit was a 20-percent boost 50–65 percent of their neighbors. Rural in total yield, since more diversity allows residents who are better prepared to cope greater use of field niches.) In settings like with shifting conditions—whether climate the U.S. Midwest, where single-species change or global market change—are better fields that stretch for kilometers are the able to feed themselves.38 norm, the addition of a winter rye crop to the normal corn and soy rotation cut the The Nature of Farming amount of nitrogen leaking from fields by at least half, with huge benefits to water As agriculture has abandoned much of its quality. Farms that rely more on ecological original ecological complexity, it has processes within the field and less on chem- become more of a drain on the global envi- ical inputs will themselves begin to function ronment—worsening rather than lessening more like the wetlands, forests, and grass- floods, emitting rather than storing carbon lands they replaced—with the added bene- in soils, and destroying rather than hosting fit of producing food.40 biodiversity. Since agriculture occupies such Trees are one element that has generally a large share of the world’s land area—near- not fit the stereotypical “modern” farm ly 40 percent worldwide, and at least half in landscape. But by reintroducing trees and

62 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST other perennials, farmers can reduce ero- tal performance and raising the bottom line sion, sequester carbon, retain water, and will often intersect. Consider the potential generally buffer agriculture against ecologi- of “no-till” farming, which can simultane- cal extremes that accompany climate insta- ously reduce costs, boost profits, and pro- bility. Tree planting can also form part of tect agriculture’s most basic foundation— the strategy to combat salinization, the soil. The approach involves planting seeds dominant form of land degradation in irri- in the stubble of the previous crop rather gated regions. (Trees improve soil drainage than plowing the soil each season, which and prevent water from pooling near the can accelerate erosion. The growth of this soil surface, where it evaporates and leaves technique in Latin America has been phe- salt residues.) In Algeria, the government nomenal: farmers are using no-till on 11 has decided to convert a large chunk of its million hectares in Brazil, up from 1 million grainland—starting with 15 percent and in 1991, and on 9.2 million hectares in eventually growing to 70 percent—to tree Argentina, up from 100,000 hectares in crops in an effort to stop the spread of the 1990. In the Brazilian state of Paraná, Sahara Desert and reduce the nation’s con- where half of cultivated land uses no-till, siderable salinization problem.41 costs for weeding, tillage, herbicides, and Reintegrating trees into the farm land- fertilizers have dropped dramatically, boost- scape is one part of a broader strategy to use ing profits by nearly $200 per hectare. And agriculture to help conserve biodiversity. the technique has cut soil erosion by 90 “Many people believe that biodiversity can percent, greatly reduced water pollution, be preserved simply by fencing it off,” said and boosted soil organic matter—the form World Conservation Union–IUCN scientist in which soils store carbon—pointing to a Jeffrey McNeely. “But agriculture and bio- role for better soil management in efforts to diversity are inextricably linked.” Almost mitigate climate change. (See Box 3–2.)43 half of the areas currently protected for bio- Reducing agrochemical use and farm diversity are in regions where agriculture is pollution will also be essential to biodiversi- a major land use. To avert widespread ty preservation on the farm. A recent report extinctions, a recent IUCN report recom- from the Soil Association in the United mends that farmers create spaces where Kingdom tallied the findings of 23 compar- wildlife can thrive in and around farms. Let- ative studies of the biodiversity benefits of ting part of the farm go wild often has the organic and conventional farming. On the added benefit of boosting production, as organic farms, it found: when grass hedges provide fodder for live- • substantially greater levels of both abun- stock or habitat for pollinators. In the dance and diversity of species, including Philippines and Indonesia, fishing commu- five times as many wild plants and several nities have banned fishing in “no-take” rare and declining species; reserves to provide breeding sanctuaries • 25 percent more birds at the field edge where fish populations can recover. A sur- and 44 percent more in the field in the vey of the reserves found that in the first fall and winter; three years after they were established, fish • 1.6 times as many of the bugs that birds number, size, and diversity in the surround- eat; ing areas all increased dramatically.42 • three times as many non-pest butterflies; For the farmer, improving environmen- • one to five times as many spiders; and

63 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST

BOX 3–2. FARMERS BATTLE CLIMATE CHANGE

Last June it was not rainclouds that darkened helps bind more nutrients (good for crop the skies over Tintic Junction, Utah, but hordes growth). Organic matter is also the form in of “Mormon crickets” eating their way across which our soils store carbon dioxide—the 600,000 hectares of farmland and more than principal greenhouse gas. $25 million of produce. That same month, Whereas well-managed soils in temperate provinces across China were hit by the worst regions can accumulate 100 kilograms of carbon locust plague in years, reaching a peak density per hectare a year, and in the tropics 200–300 of 3,000–10,000 insects per square meter in kilograms, farms planting green manures or some areas. As in Utah, the affected areas in using no-till methods can accumulate up to China had experienced warmer winter months 1,000 kilograms of carbon in a year. Farms with than usual, followed by a prolonged dry spell, trees planted strategically between crops will creating the perfect conditions for insects to better withstand torrential downpours and breed and destroy cropland. parching droughts and will “lock up” even more Farming is vulnerable to many of the carbon; the improved fallows being used in spasms that are likely to accompany a changing Africa typically store three times as much car- climate. Yet according to FAO, local disasters bon as nearby croplands or grasslands do. such as hurricanes, ﬂooding, or massive crop The systems that store more carbon are infestations pose less of a threat to food pro- often considerably more proﬁtable, and they duction than the steady changes in rainfall pat- might become even more so if farmers get terns and regional temperatures. paid to store carbon under the international Fortunately, the same practices that help climate treaty. In Chiapas, Mexico, farmers are farms adapt to climate variations are the most already paid to shift from systems that involve potent weapons for mitigating the effects of regular forest clearing to agroforestry. The climate change and reducing greenhouse gas International Federation of Automobiles is emissions. For instance, building up a soil’s funding the project as part of its commitment stock of organic matter—the dark, spongy to reducing carbon emissions from sponsored material that gives soils their rich smell—not sports car races. only increases the amount of water the soil can hold (good for weathering droughts), it SOURCE: See endnote 43.

• dramatic increases in life in the soil, century. Moreover, the authors concluded including earthworms.44 that the spread of organic farming in the The organic systems surveyed held the United Kingdom was an essential compo- biodiversity advantage by including more nent of any attempt to reverse the well-doc- diverse crop rotations, the year-round pres- umented decline in Britain’s farmland ence of ground cover, greater habitat wildlife, and could deliver much better (hedgerows, trees, wild vegetation) at ﬁeld results than other government wildlife con- boundaries, no use of agrochemicals, and servation programs.45 use of green manuring (leguminous crops Financial mechanisms can be among the that are worked into soil)—all practices that most powerful drivers for changing the way have been progressively abandoned as we farm. Yet governments have rarely agriculture has industrialized over the last penalized farm pollution. Pesticides, chem-

64 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST ical fertilizers, and animal feedlots are just a arrangement helped create the less diverse few things that might be taxed. Denmark, system in the first place and inhibits the Norway, and Sweden already have substan- adoption of resource-conserving practices tial taxes on pesticides, with the goal of cut- by making them less profitable. Farmers ting usage by 25–50 percent in coming interested in diversifying out of the handful years, and the Netherlands taxes farms that of crops that receive payments lose a signif- generate excess manure. Dave Brubaker of icant source of income.48 the Center for a Livable Future at the Johns But there is huge potential to use this Hopkins University suggests a tax on indus- money more creatively. Recent food safety trial animal production, now the fastest- crises in Europe and the United States, by growing form of meat production exposing the public health fallout of current worldwide and a major source of water pol- farm practices, have pushed the political lution. Such a tax not only would make it momentum toward redirecting production more expensive to set up and run factory payments to “green” or “stewardship” pay- farms, and therefore make grazing and ments, which would support farmers who organic meat production more competitive, meet certain ecological goals. An important but it would also help slow the loss of small- side effect of decoupling these payments er farms because the tax would be based on from production of a specific commodity herd size.46 would be the boost given to rural commu- Combining financial incentives with nities, since the current structure funnels education about reducing agrochemical use the vast majority of funds to the largest and is also powerful. After attending farmer most well off farms. But the powerful com- field schools on insect ecology and non- modity lobbies—including trading and pro- chemical pest control (and after higher cessing firms that reap benefits in the form taxes on certain pesticides), 2 million farm- of lower commodity prices—are not likely ers in Viet Nam cut pesticide applications to take any loss of income lightly, and rep- from 3.4 to just 1 per season. And follow- resent one of the strongest barriers to sub- ing a two-year campaign to explain to rice sidy reform.49 farmers that spraying during the first 40 Although most industrial nations more days after sowing is unnecessary because than doubled public expenditures on agri- insect damage during this stage rarely cultural conservation programs between reduces yields, nearly 80 percent of 1993 and 1998, these payments still Mekong farmers had stopped early spraying represent just 2 percent of total agricultural and 30 percent now farm rice entirely with- budgets in these nations, a meager counter- out pesticides—with no drop in yields.47 weight to the massive commodity payments Today, however, most agricultural policy that perpetuate dysfunctional farming. acts as a powerful disincentive against shift- Moreover, prevailing conservation paying to cleaner methods of food production. ments focus mainly on marginal lands A case in point is the more than $320 bil- or the edges of fields, not on land in lion that governments of industrial nations production. For example, 85 percent of spend each year to support agriculture. The U.S. conservation payments, including lion’s share of these subsidies are tied to the the Conservation Reserve Program that production of a handful of commodities— pays farmers to protect erosion-prone such as corn, soybeans, and beef. This lands, are for lands not in production.

65 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST

Although beneficial, these programs do not by the 1993 Union-wide policy to support affect farmers’ practices on the majority of farmers in the first years of conversion from their land.50 conventional to organic production. (See In other words, “greening the edges” Figure 3–4.) Conversion has been highest will not be sufficient to restore biodiversity in the nations with the highest transfer pay- in farm fields and to reduce most farm- ments per hectare—Austria and Switzer- related pollution, since “the middle” of land, where roughly 10 percent of the area the farm holds most of the potential for is organic today.52 both negative and positive ecological Without transition payments, many impacts. Some agricultural economists have farmers may be unable to afford to shift to suggested that any payments to farmers a different farm system: for many ecological should depend on a basic level of ecological farming practices, productivity and prof- compliance and that farmers who go itability are likely to drop for awhile as the beyond the minimum should receive more ecological infrastructure of the farm (soil money. Nations can already do this without quality or insect predator populations, for making major changes to existing policy, instance) and the farmer’s expertise but generally they do not. For instance, improve. For example, where decades of European states can deny subsidies to farms pesticide use have wiped out a farm’s insect that do not comply with environmental populations, it may take several years to requirements, although only a few have rebuild the diversity that helps control pests done so. And the existing U.S. Farm Bill naturally once a farmer decides to move provides for several conservation programs toward nonchemical pest control. Even that are perennially underfunded. Still, though studies show that losses are often France is considering shifting 20 percent— recouped by greater returns after the transi- up from just a few percent today—of tion period, farmers generally see cost as a all direct payments to farmers toward rural chief reason not to change. The transition is development and ecological farming also complicated by the inertia of university programs in coming years. This would professors and researchers, agricultural support France’s Contrats Territori- ales d’Exploitation (land management Million Hectares agreements), a new grassroots pro- 4 gram that involves rural communities in deciding what changes to farming 3 practices will most benefit local environmental needs but also farm profitability.51 2 Whatever the policy change, new incentives can elicit a dramatic 1 response. Consider the effects of broad government support for organ- Source: Univ. of Wales ic farming in the European Union. 0 Over 80 percent of the explosive 1985 1990 1995 2000 growth in organic area there has Figure 3–4. Certified Organic and In-conversion occurred in the last six years, spurred Land in European Union, 1985–2000

66 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST extension agents, and government agricul- companies control over 70 percent of fertil- tural officials, who are all often quite unfa- izer sales, five banks provide the vast major- miliar with new modes of farming.53 ity of agricultural credit, two companies control over 70 percent of beef packing, Why Care About Rural Areas? four companies mill 80 percent of the wheat, and five companies dominate food Because the farm sector is such a small share retailing—a situation that means farmers of the economy in wealthy nations, it is easy pay more for inputs and get paid less for to think that governments can ignore rural what they harvest. Although industry ana- areas. Michael Lipton of the Poverty lysts often argue that such consolidation is Research Unit at the University of Sussex necessary to deliver affordable food, it describes a contradiction between the reduces choice and ultimately allows a rhetoric of poverty reduction among inter- few companies to control prices. To date, national lenders, like the World Bank and few nations have shown interest in enforc- aid agencies, and the large-scale neglect of ing existing antitrust laws in agriculture, rural areas—home to most of the world’s with even less hope of such action at the poor. International aid to agriculture has global level.56 declined two thirds in real terms since the But the argument for investing in rural 1980s; rural investments represented less areas is quite strong, since rural people still than 10 percent of World Bank commit- constitute the majority of the population in ments in 2000.54 developing nations. Moreover, rural invest- Such reductions send a worrisome signal ment generally spills over to the rest of the to governments in Africa, Asia, and Latin economy and to urban areas, becoming an America, who have already cut spending on indispensable engine of economic growth education, credit, marketing assistance, and (not to mention the growing and more other essential support services in rural explicit role for farmers in taking care of the areas, partly as a result of austerity measures countryside). Rising farm production and encouraged by international lenders like the farm incomes provide the base for growing International Monetary Fund and the urban industrial centers, which gradually World Bank. “As public commodity pro- draw people out of agriculture—the history curement boards—along with the provision of the industrial world over the last century of rural credit and extension and rural infra- or so. In West Africa, for example, each structure maintenance—are privatized as $1 of new farm income yields income part of structural adjustment policies,” increases in the local economy ranging from notes Rafael Mariano, chairman of a Fil- $1.96 in Niger to $2.88 in Burkina Faso. ipino farmers union, “the new entities are And the growing prosperity of millions of under no obligation to service marginal small farms in Japan, South Korea, and Tai- rural areas and often result in even spottier wan following World War II is widely cited coverage than the institutions they were as the major stimulus to the dramatic eco- intended to replace.”55 nomic boom those countries enjoyed. In Rampant consolidation at all layers of contrast, many farmers today—far from the food chain has further squeezed the choosing to move to the city—are driven role of farmers in the economy. (See Table off the land by desperate economic circum- 3–2.) In Canada, for example, just three stances.57

67 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST

Table 3–2. Concentration in Various Layers of Agribusiness

Business Sector Description

Agrochemicals Five companies control 65 percent of the global pesticide market. Seeds The top 10 seed firms control 30 percent of the global seed market; five companies control 75 percent of the global vegetable seed market. Trade The top five grain trading enterprises control more than 75 percent of the world market for cereals.A handful of transnational companies control about 90 percent of the global trade in coffee, cocoa, and pineapples; about 80 percent of the tea trade; 70 percent of the banana market; and more than 60 percent of the sugar trade. Meat One firm controls 60 percent of chicken purchases in Central America. In the United States, four companies control over 80 percent of beef packing, and five companies pack 75 percent of the pork. Retail Five retailers control 50 percent or more of all food purchases in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom; two firms control over 80 percent of Hong Kong’s retail market; between 1994 and 1999, the share of the retail sector in Brazil controlled by the top 10 supermarkets grew from 23 percent to 44 percent.

SOURCE: See endnote 56.

Prosperous rural areas can thus take down once plowing stops.) In the Indian pressure off of urban infrastructure by states of Maharashtra, Gujurat, and Tamil reducing migration to cities. Research in Nadu, since the introduction of water stor- Brazil has found that in just one month the age tanks, widespread tree planting, and total cost to the state of maintaining a given other measures to boost water conserva- person in an urban shantytown, including tion, seasonal migration out of rural areas water services, electricity, and infrastruc- has declined sharply, as enough water is ture, can exceed the yearly cost of helping now available to farm in the dry season.59 landless laborers get established on idle Land reform has fallen off the develop- farmland. As a result, urban welfare groups ment radar in recent years, even though there have joined with farmers, unions, and lack of land rights is still one of the domi- environmentalists to support the Landless nant constraints to improving rural lives. Workers Movement, a grassroots coalition Analyses of poverty trends in India between that pushes for land reform, as an alterna- 1958 and 1992 have shown that poverty tive to the growth of city slums.58 fell the most in the states that implemented Ecological farming systems might offer more land reform. China’s move from col- an even better alternative, since they gener- lectivized management of farmland to rela- ally require greater management and labor, tively equitable household responsibility usually a plus for rural communities. (No- between 1977 and 1985 resulted in till farming is a notable exception; it tremendous gains in food production, mov- reduces labor needs, although the farmer ing a huge chunk of the world’s rural poor will spend more time orchestrating the out of poverty. Especially where land is diverse rotation that helps keep weeds scarce or widespread redistribution is

68 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST unlikely, even small amounts of land for a means that prices have bottomed out, and garden or home can mean better family then buy the same crop back for their own nutrition, higher income and status, and consumption later in the season, when access to credit.60 prices might be several times higher.62 Collective action among farmers in the The exact opportunities will vary with form of cooperatives, unions, or research location, but the ability of a wide base of the collectives can be particularly important to rural population to make more money on or bolstering power in the food chain. Econo- off the farm depends partly on closing the mist Bina Agarwal notes that throughout gap between rural and urban areas in South Asia, forming groups has been an schooling, literacy, health care, and other essential strategy to boost the power of basic services. A recent analysis showed that women in the struggle for land rights. of six types of public investment in rural Farmers cooperatives in Mozambique enjoy areas in China—education, agricultural greater market access, improved transporta- research, roads, telephones, electricity, and tion of produce, and better prices, including irrigation—education has the greatest 22 percent more for maize and 93 percent impact on reducing poverty. Extra invest- more for groundnut than paid to individual ment in rural areas generally enhances wel- farmers. In general, these groups help farm- fare more than it would in urban areas, since ers take back some of the profit currently rural communities start from a much lower captured by the rest of agribusiness.61 level of service; for example, an extra year of In other cases, the central challenge for schooling for an urban child will likely mean farmers will be finding new market opportu- costly college education, whereas for a rural nities, a pursuit that remains largely neglect- child it means grammar school.63 ed. A recent survey in the developing world found that just 12–15 percent of agricultur- Lack of land rights is still one of the al projects included some focus on either dominant constraints to improving marketing or increasing the value of the rural lives. farm product through processing. (As with insecure land rights, farmers are much less Many government officials and develop- likely to invest in their farms without access ment economists view trade as an essential to markets.) The Association for Better component of reducing rural poverty. Yet in Land Husbandry in Kenya has developed most nations, market liberalization has the Farmer’s Own brand, which markets tended to benefit larger farmers and energy bars, cooking sauces, and other food agribusiness companies and to widen items made from locally produced crops as a inequalities between these people and way to get farmers a higher price for their small, poor farmers. The United Nations harvest. Among the most helpful initiatives surveyed 16 developing nations implement- would be basic credit and storage facilities ing the last phase of the General Agreement that allow farmers to wait for the best time on Tariffs and Trade and concluded that “a to sell their harvest and thus capture some common reported concern was with a gen- of the windfall profits that usually go to local eral trend towards the concentration of merchants, lenders, and brokers. Cash- farms,” a process that tends to exacerbate strapped farmers often need to sell their pro- rural poverty and unemployment. During duce at harvest time, when a market glut the first seven years of the North American

69 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST

Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), all three gins and history of food. The depths of participating nations saw commodity prices consumer preference have often been limit- and farmer incomes plummet, as the comed to subtleties of packaging, color, or fla- panies that trade and process agricultural vor, but a new generation of eaters seems to commodities reaped windfall profits. As hold much higher expectations for their farmers depend on markets that are farther food system. As one small example of and farther away, moving, storing, process- emerging consumer power, the recent deci- ing, and brokering of food begins to assume sion by Monsanto to permanently discon- greater importance than production.64 tinue its genetically engineered Bt-potatoes Current international trade agreements was not prompted by a corporate change of actually restrict the ability of nations to pro- heart, but rather by consumer and environ- tect and build domestic farm economies, mentalist pressure put on McDonald’s and forbidding domestic price support and tar- Frito-Lay, the major U.S. purchasers of iffs on imported goods. (Politically power- potatoes.66 ful industrial nations have, nonetheless, Interest in taking an active role in the boosted their own barriers to trade in food system will grow as consumers begin recent years.) At the same time, these agree- to understand their personal stakes in vari- ments leave considerable wiggle room on ous types of farming. A series of well-publi- other forms of trade distortion, including cized food safety crises—from the on-going the ability of wealthy nations to dump sub- mad cow crisis to the recent foot-and- sidized crops on the world market well mouth outbreak—has made this abundant- below the cost of production—an econom- ly clear to Europeans in recent years. By ic weapon that can squash local food pro- undermining consumer confidence, these duction by driving prices down and actually events opened the door to greater support worsen poverty among those who depend for organic farming, regional food self-suf- on agriculture for their income. Michael ficiency, and pressure to shift the massive Widfuhr of FIAN, an international hunger Common Agricultural Policy budget rights group, argues that trade agreements toward ecological goals. In Germany, the must create some space for nations to pur- detection of the first mad cows in the sue domestic goals of eradicating hunger, nation’s herd prompted the prime minister maintaining a base of family farmers, or to replace the agriculture minister with an striving for some level of self-sufficiency— environmentalist, who quickly set a goal for “a trading system where food sovereignty is increasing Germany’s organic area from the the priority and fair trade prevails.”65 current 2.6 percent to 20 percent by 2010 and declared “the end of intensive farming Ethical Eating as we know it.” Perhaps the most promising element of this U-turn on farm policy is the “Eating is an agricultural act” is how sense that politicians as well as consumers farmer-poet Wendell Berry explains the fact view the recent food scares not as isolated that how we eat determines to a large incidents but as symptoms of an agricultur- extent how we farm. For the average eater, al system gone wrong.67 this implies a new identity—from a relative- The self-interest component of food ly apathetic purchaser to an active critic of activism, however, runs much deeper than the food system, ever curious about the ori- food safety. Greater freshness, nutritional

70 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST value, and food quality are all potential pay- switching them to organic production in an offs. The argument for average citizens to effort to reduce water contamination in the take a more active role in their food system is spawning and nursery habitat. Australia’s also strengthened by the fact that in many Landcare movement involves rural commu- industrial nations, farmers now get nearly nities, both farmers and nonfarmers, in pro- half of their income from government pay- jects to reclaim soil, plant trees, clean rivers, ments. Consumers have a right to demand and reconcile farming practices with local that farmers better serve the public interest.68 ecological health. The movement has For instance, the public pays for the pre- grown from 200 community Landcare vailing dysfunctional food system through groups in 1990 to 4,250 today; one third of increased medical costs associated with Australia’s farmers now belong to a group.70 poor food choices. Don Wyse, an agrono- Such efforts are not restricted to wealthy mist at the University of Minnesota, thinks nations. Coffee growers around San Sal- that these health impacts offer an opportu- vador, El Salvador’s capital, are being nity to enlist the urban majority as a politi- encouraged to reintroduce trees into their cal base for redirecting the food system. He farm landscape in an effort to boost the city’s notes that the prevailing corn-and-soybean water supply, which went into steep decline system in the U.S. Midwest basically pro- in recent years as farmers in the surrounding vides society with inexpensive meat and hillsides cut down trees. In one proposal, a sugar—two products that contribute to the share of residential waterbills in San Salvador national obesity crisis. (Seventy percent of will be earmarked for a farmer fund.71 the corn and nearly all soybeans are used in Consumers can nurture a particular food industrial meat production, while high- system by seeking out foods produced with fructose corn syrup has become the prima- care to ecological and social consequences. ry sweetener in the American diet.) The Since people in the First World exercise range of public health concerns associated power by virtue of their money, they can with U.S. farm practices also includes the drive the market for organic produce or rapid emergence of antibiotic-resistant shade-grown coffee; for people in the Third microbes due to the overuse of antibiotics World, the ethical choice might simply be in animal feed as well as other health risks how to get enough to eat. William Vorley of associated with unhygienic animal farms.69 the International Institute for Environment In some cases, farmers are already begin- and Development argues that the virtual ning to operate in more of a public service monopoly in many national retail markets function—and the public is paying accord- “makes retailers very sensitive to campaigns ingly. For example, German water supply designed around ethics, safety or environ- companies in Munich, Osnabrück, and ment.” He points to Christian Aid’s Global Leipzig now pay neighboring farmers to go Supermarket Campaign as a model of organic—a cheaper investment than remov- farmer and consumer groups joining forces ing farm chemicals from the water. In Wash- to publicize corporate commitment to ani- ington State, a coalition of farmers, a mal rights, family farms, or fair trade. Such consumer food cooperative, a local Indian “food activism” can often have a profound tribe, and the Department of Fish and impact on the lives of farmers halfway Wildlife are purchasing sections of farmland around the world.72 that border salmon breeding grounds and Consider the growing fair trade move-

71 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST

ment, a partnership between First World export crops, from cut flowers to miniature consumers and Third World food producers vegetables, are also the most pesticide- that seeks to improve the often unfavorable intensive, reinforcing the potential benefits conditions of trade. The typical fair trade of fair trade.74 arrangement guarantees that farmers Globalization in some ways threatens to receive a fair share of the retail profit (often obscure this story behind our food, because several times more than they would receive of the inevitable breakdown in the crop’s from mainstream distributors) and that identity as it is processed and moved great agricultural workers receive fair wages and distances, but also because prevailing trade enjoy labor rights. The product label also agreements tend to emphasize the product generally carries more information about rather than the process used to make it. the people and process involved in produc- Such agreements even threaten local tion than is typical, reinforcing consumers’ sovereignty over public health or ecological interest in having an impact with their pur- standards, ceding many food quality deci- chase. Worldwide, an estimated $400 mil- sions to international bodies that are non- lion worth of fair-traded products are democratic and dominated by industry bought each year.73 representatives. Or consider the World Trade Organization’s ruling that Europe In a global food market, one of the most must import hormone-treated beef from significant selections a consumer can the United States and Canada or face retal- make is to buy locally grown food. iatory sanctions, even though European countries ban such practices on their own Perhaps more significant for the well- farms. Consumers have good reason to be being of food producers in developing skeptical of claims that they are among the nations, fair trade standards often overlap primary beneficiaries of the trade agree- with organic farming standards to demand ments—seven years into NAFTA, for that farmers use no pesticides. Although instance, inflation-adjusted prices for foods most of the world’s pesticide use today at the checkout counter in the United occurs in the North, a lack of safety equip- States, Canada, and Mexico are consider- ment or proper instructions means that ably higher, even as commodity prices most pesticide poisonings occur in the bottomed out.75 developing world. The World Health Orga- Food policy expert Tim Lang doubts, nization estimates that every year 3 million however, that citizens around the world will people suffer from severe pesticide poison- allow the global integration of the food sys- ing, matched by a greater number of unre- tem to threaten their ability to know about ported, mild cases that result in acute their food. “At its apparent moment of tri- conditions such as skin irritation, nausea, umph, the globalisation of the food supply diarrhea, and breathing problems. These is engendering a worldwide political oppo- poisonings result in as many as 20,000 sition,” Lang notes, “characterized by a set unintentional deaths, in addition to an esti- of countertrends that celebrates the local mated 200,000 “pesticide suicides.” (Sui- over the global, fresh over processed foods, cides are more visible and therefore and diversity over homogeneity.” A Slow reported more frequently than unintended Food movement was founded in 1989 to poisonings.) Many of the most popular celebrate the wisdom and pleasures of local

72 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST cuisines—and, as its name implies, to retain Project, a given basket of Iowa-grown alternatives to the proliferation of fast foods traveled an average of 74 kilometers food—and now includes 65,000 members to reach its destination, compared with in 45 countries.76 2,577 kilometers if these foods had arrived In an increasingly global food market, from conventional national sources. The one of the most significant selections a con- conventionally sourced meals also used sumer can make is to buy locally grown 4–17 times more fuel than the local meals food. In much of the world, farmers no and released 5–17 times more carbon diox- longer sell food to their neighbors. Instead ide. Eating locally generally also means eat- they sell it into a long and complex food ing more fresh, whole foods, since many of chain of which they are a tiny part—and are the additives and processing that go into paid accordingly. Apples in Boise’s super- our food are the consequence of the time markets are from China, even though there that commercial food spends in transit and are apple farmers in Iowa; potatoes in storage. Shorter trips can have food safety Lima’s supermarkets are from the United advantages as well, since opportunities for States, even though Peru boasts more vari- contamination proliferate over long-dis- eties of potato than any other country. Buy- tance hauls and long-term storage.78 ing food produced locally will help take Farmers markets, shopping in season, some of the profits of food traders, brokers, local-food labels, and other direct buying shippers, and processors and put them back schemes are just some of the ways to sup- in the pocket of the farmer and the rural port local food systems. Concerted efforts community. to get schools, hospitals, government agen- An additional benefit of reconnecting cies, and other institutions to set food pro- farmers with consumers will be to take curement standards that favor local or some of the distance out of the modern regional farmers can also have powerful food chain, whose sprawl now means that impacts. The benefits are often not just transportation is one of the food system’s financial, but social and psychological, as biggest energy uses and sources of green- the wider community begins to understand house gas emissions. Food eaten in the what it takes to produce the food it eats, United Kingdom travels 50 percent more and as relationships develop between food on average than two decades ago. The aver- growers and food eaters.79 age distance traveled by food to reach one Finding as much of this common ground Chicago, Illinois, wholesale market has as possible will build the coalition for trans- increased by 22 percent in the last two forming our food system. Once stable farm decades. While this might mean greater communities are seen as beautiful land- variety for the global eater, it also requires scapes that arrest the invasion of asphalt, large amounts of energy, generates excess then people who are sick of urban sprawl packaging and pollution, and can reduce become an ally of farmers. When city folk food quality. In the United States, refriger- realize that the cleanliness of their drinking ating, transporting, and storing food uses water depends on the practices of the farm- eight times as much energy as is provided ers in their watershed, then support for by the food itself.77 farmers no longer seems an unreasonable “Eating local” can go a long way toward drain on public coffers. And when govern- reducing this toll. In the Iowa Food System ments and aid agencies understand that

73 State of the World 2002 FARMING IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST alleviating poverty in the countryside agricultural sector has operated alone in the assures more prosperity for the whole political sphere for too long. Food is too nation, then redistributing land or shoring essential to keep other parties away from up rural banks become urban priorities. The the table.

WORLD SUMMIT PRIORITIES ON AGRICULTURE

➣ Shift agricultural subsidies to support for ecological farming practices. ➣ Tax pesticides, synthetic fertilizers, and factory farms. ➣ Redistribute land and guarantee secure ownership rights to both women and men. ➣ Eliminate export subsidies and food dumping. ➣ Assure women equal rights and support in agriculture.

74 Chapter 4

Reducing Our Toxic Burden

Anne Platt McGinn

In early December 2000, just three weeks bioaccumulative chemicals; the reduction of after global talks on climate change reached existing ones; substitution with less danger- a deadlock at the Hague, delegates negoti- ous materials; and the great care needed ating a new global toxic chemicals treaty with respect to all chemicals. Recent experi- finalized a text that environmentalists and ences in many industrial sectors and com- chemical industry representatives alike munities have shown that alternatives to embraced. The treaty’s primary goals are to toxics are available that not only protect ban 10 intentionally produced persistent human and environmental health but also organic pollutants (POPs) worldwide and to improve the economic bottom line. They reduce emissions of two industrial byprod- include unleaded gasoline, organic agricul- ucts, with the aim of eventually eliminating ture, bio-based industrial materials, and an them. POPs are long-lived toxics that cause overall reduction in consumption.2 biological havoc as they bioaccumulate— Part of what is preventing these and collect and concentrate—in the food chain. other safer choices from becoming standard The nine pesticides covered by the treaty practice is the challenge of reframing how had already been banned in at least 60 coun- we think about toxic chemicals. In effect, tries; one value of the treaty is that it sets up we have based our collective well-being on the process to expand that list.1 a great deal of scientific ignorance and Signed in Stockholm in May 2001, the answers to the wrong questions. Instead of Convention on Persistent Organic Pollu- asking if a particular chemical is essential, tants is one of the main environmental we currently assume a certain amount of achievements in the decade since the 1992 danger. The burden of proof for existing Earth Summit in Rio. It outlines the key chemicals and many new ones now rests principles for a less toxic world, including with public authorities and scientists who the prevention of new toxic, persistent, must prove something is harmful after it has State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN been released and people can be exposed to normally think of as safe. This new and it, rather than with chemical proponents rapidly changing body of scientific evidence who must prove a compound is safe over poses a serious challenge to our current way the long term. As structured, our current of dealing with toxic chemicals and sup- system puts the focus on which risks are ports widespread application of the precau- acceptable rather than which are necessary tionary principle.5 and unavoidable. And what is considered But before we can step off the toxics acceptable changes over time, even within a treadmill, we need to understand where few years, as scientific understanding these chemicals come from and what they evolves and society’s values change.3 are used for. The distinction between natu- Officials at the Earth Summit were rally occurring metals and humanmade per- mindful of the need to protect people from sistent toxins is an important one. Metals accidental and routine exposure to thou- such as lead and mercury are found in sands of hazardous chemicals. But the Earth’s crust combined with other ele- chemicals chapter of Agenda 21, the blue- ments, typically sulfur. These toxic metals print for change adopted at the conference, do not degrade, so if we continue to mine failed to address this adequately: it called on the ore and extract the metals or release nations to promote chemical safety and them as byproducts, they come back to information sharing, but offered little in the harm us. “Synthetic” toxins, on the other way of specific requirements to rid the plan- hand, are not found in nature and are not et of the most harmful compounds. The fundamental to life (although sometimes it POPs treaty therefore represents an impor- may seem like they are because they are tant milestone in international environmen- found in everything from plastic wrap to tal law, not least because it applies to toxic computer terminals). Synthetic toxins, such chemicals management the “precautionary as all the intentionally produced POPs, principle”—the rule that even in the face of were created either by trial and error, by scientific uncertainty, the prudent stance is deliberate intent, or, in some cases, by acci- to restrict or even prohibit an activity that dent. By looking at what they are used for, may cause long-term or irreversible harm. we can begin to determine if they are (Agenda 21 adopted a less controversial absolutely necessary or not.6 position: the chemicals chapter suggested Even when there is widespread agree- that countries adopt a precautionary ment on which compounds need to go— approach to risk reduction where deemed toxic heavy metals and POPs, for appropriate.)4 example—people often find few viable and Since Rio, serious and previously unex- cost-effective alternatives. The issue is not pected human health effects have emerged simply one of banning “the bad guys.” It concerning, for example, damage to the involves developing and then adopting safer body’s key communications systems: the materials, processes, and products into our nervous system that sends messages economy. While there is progress in this through electric pulses and the endocrine direction, the challenge remains enormous system that sends messages chemically, and the window of opportunity to change through hormones. Moreover, irreversible the way we use toxic chemicals and to pre- health problems have recently been shown vent long-term environmental and health to occur at exposure levels below what we damage will not remain open for long.

76 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

The Chemical Economy material.) While this is considerably less than agriculture’s thirst for water, the glob- The chemical economy is one of the largest al chemicals manufacturing industry con- and most diverse industrial sectors in the sumes 21 percent more water each year world. Each year, tens of thousands of indi- than all household water users.8 vidual chemical compounds are produced Quantifying the global toxic burden is and serve as the feedstock for countless difficult, given the incomplete picture of industries, as the basic ingredients for virtu- the life cycle of thousands of chemicals. ally every consumer product manufactured Only a few countries measure toxic emis- today, and as the basis for such products sions, and these data are limited in scope. In as cleaning agents and pesticides. (See Table 1999, for example, the U.S. chemicals man- 4–1.) By 1998 (the most recent year with ufacturing sector ranked third in terms of data), global sales of all chemicals totaled toxic emissions, behind metal mining and nearly $1.5 trillion, making the sector electric utilities, according to U.S. Toxics about twice as large as the global market Release Inventory (TRI) data. Yet only for telecommunications equipment and large manufacturers are required to report, services.7 and the current list of 650 chemicals does Not surprisingly, the chemicals manufac- not cover all toxic chemicals or sources, or turing sector has a major influence on the emissions during use and disposal. Accord- health of the global environment. In 1998, ing to the World Bank, the chemicals and for example, the industry accounted for plastics manufacturing sectors are among nearly 10 percent of world water use and 7 the most intensive in terms of toxic air pol- percent of world energy use. (Energy lutants. (See Figure 4–1.) (The global ship inputs, such as oil and natural gas, are used building and repair industry is the most both as a source of fuel and as a feedstock intensive, emitting about five times more toxics to air than the chemical manufacturing sector.)9 Table 4–1. Global Chemical Output by Sector, Moreover, the quantity of materi- Value, and Share of Total,1996 als produced and used gives no indi- Sector Value Share of Total cation of its potency. To bring in this (billion dollars) (percent) year’s agricultural harvest, for example, farmers worldwide will apply Basic industrial chemicals 360 26 something on the order of 2.5 mil- Pharmaceuticals 305 22 lion tons of pesticides, the over- Plastics, resins, and synthetic resins 235 17 whelming majority of which are Soaps and toiletries 160 12 synthetic organic chemicals that are Other chemicals 131 10 orders of magnitude more toxic than Fertilizers and pesticides 90 7 50 years ago. Just as we have no con- Paints and varnishes 79 6 crete measures of our cumulative environmental burden of toxins, nei- Total 1,360 100 ther do we know the relative safety SOURCE: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and or danger of most chemicals in use. Development, OECD Environmental Outlook for the Chemicals There are no basic health and envi- Industry (Paris: 2001), p. 112. ronmental data for 71 percent of the

77 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

Kilograms of Emissions to the Air expanding chemical- per $1 Million of Production Output dependent sectors.11 1000 Source: World Bank Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastic pro- 800 vides a telling example. Every stage of its life cycle—from 600 manufacture to disposal—creates dan- 400 gerous chemicals, including some POPs, while toxic 200 additives are used to stabilize the material and add flexibility. 0 Nearly 25 million tons of PVC were Fertilizers Industrial Automobile produced in 1999. Iron and Steel and Pesticides ChemicalsPulp, Paper, Radio, TV, and and Paperboard Communications Synthetic Resins, This material now Equipment Plastics, and Fibers has a constant pres- Figure 4–1.Toxic Intensities of Selected U.S. Manufacturing ence in every channel Sectors, Early 1990s of the global economy. Overall, produc- most widely used chemicals in the United tion is accelerating, with much of the States today, and less than 10 percent of growth expected in Asia, where rapidly new chemicals reviewed each year under expanding cities are built with PVC build- premarket notifications having adequate ing materials and filled with consumer test data on health effects. Meanwhile, goods made from PVC and other plastics.12 chemical production keeps growing—it is Similar trends are evident in the chemi- expected to soon grow faster than the glob- cally intense pulp and paper sector. Some al economy. (See Figure 4–2.)10 40 percent of the world’s pulp supply is Much of the expansion in chemicals pro- bleached with chlorine compounds. A large duction and use is now occurring in devel- share of these are based on elemental chlo- oping countries, in part because companies rine, a process that creates up to 35 tons of in traditional producing nations (primarily chlorinated byproducts a day per industrial- industrial countries) are shifting away from scale facility, as opposed to almost none for commodity chemicals, which are a mature chlorine-free bleach methods based on market, toward speciality chemicals, which hydrogen or oxygen. In 1998, the world is a less cyclical business and has a higher volume of paper production was 294 mil- proﬁt margin. But several changes within lion tons, more than a sixfold increase since developing regions are also contributing to 1950. It is expected to increase by another the global realignment of the industry from one third by 2010. Countries in Asia and North to South, including the growth in Latin America are rapidly boosting their domestic demand, low labor costs, and pulp production, eager to tap into lucrative

78 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

1995 = 100 ducers of materials such as petrole- 200 um have intentionally created mar- Source: OECD kets for byproduct chemicals to 180 Chemical Industry reduce waste and make money. Production Each year, petroleum refineries cre- 160 ate literally tons of highly toxic byproducts—including benzene, 140 Gross World Product ethylene, and propylene. Over time, these were developed as 120 Population chemical sources for secondary processing and manufacturing indus- 100 tries, most notably plastics 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 manufacturing.15 Figure 4–2. Projected Growth in World Economy, Of course, recycling materials Population, and Chemical Production, 1995–2020 and closing the production loop are basic concepts in “industrial ecolo- trade markets. In the next few years, Asia’s gy,” a new discipline that tries to model paper and pulp output will likely surpass industrial processes on the efficiencies that of North America, making that region found in nature, in order to minimize waste the world’s top producer.13 and pollution. But in some cases, these Growth in these and other chemically principles have been applied to their intense industries promises to bring not extreme, essentially creating a justification only desperately needed jobs and export for the continued production of toxic mate- earnings, but also significant environmental rials.16 liabilities. And as these activities expand in Chlorine is the classic example of a developing countries and economies in chemical byproduct that was marketed as the transition, which often have minimal capac- basis for entirely new branches of industrial ity to monitor toxic contamination from production. Because it is highly reactive, persistent and mobile pollutants—let alone chlorine has a strong affinity for organic (car- contain and reduce it effectively—global bon-based) compounds. (In nature, chlorine contamination could become much worse is almost never found alone in its elemental in the years ahead.14 state—it normally binds with sodium or car- In addition to releasing toxic com- bon.) Combined with an organic molecule, pounds, industries producing PVC plastics chlorine often imparts stability and persis- and pulp and paper consume chemicals, and tence, making the resulting compound likely thus help propel the growing demand for to bioaccumulate. Because of its versatility, existing and new chemicals. Part of the rea- chlorine is the basis for thousands of synthet- son that these industries use so many chem- ic chemicals. About 60 percent of the final icals is simply that all modern industrial products in the chemical industry involve production follows this pattern. But the chlorinated chemicals at some stage of pro- demand of these industries for chemical duction. Initially generated as an unwanted inputs also results from deliberate—and byproduct of caustic soda (which is used in successful—efforts by others to create mar- manufacturing pulp, paper, and soaps, kets for unwanted synthetic chemicals. Pro- among other things), chlorine has been

79 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN hailed by W. Joseph Stearns of Dow Chemi- pesticides, and polychlorinated biphenyls cal as “the single most important ingredient (PCBs), along with mercury, lead, and a few in modern [industrial] chemistry.”17 other heavy metals. Other toxic com- Many compounds—including the thou- pounds—including organic solvents and sands that contain chlorine—are both organophosphate pesticides—are not as innocuous and valuable for commerce and harmful as POPs, but they are important medicine. The challenge is to identify and from public health and ecological perspec- regulate the most dangerous ones. At the tives because of the harm they pose on their moment, scientists do not even know how own or in reaction with other substances many dangerous ones exist. Estimates vary and because the lessons they offer for phas- from dozens to hundreds. Despite the ing out toxics.19 ubiquity of synthetic chemicals, many compounds have never been tested for basic Old Metals, New Threats: health impacts, such as toxicity, let alone for Lead and Mercury bioaccumulative or persistent properties.18 There are, however, some clear choices Metals are different from other toxic for elimination among the thousands of substances because they are naturally chemicals on the market today. (See Figure occurring, albeit trace elements in Earth’s 4–3.) Based on the degree of persistence and crust. They cannot be created or destroyed. toxicity, high-priority chemicals include Once emitted, they can reside in the envi- dioxins and furans (both POPs), chlorinated ronment for hundreds of years. Natural forces such as volca- noes, forest ﬁres, and Less Persistent More Persistent ocean tides cycle metals through the Group One Group Two environment. But • Cellulose • Iron humans also play an • Carbohydrates • Silicon important role and, • Carboxylates (soaps) • Aluminum in many cases, a larg- • Copper er role than nature. Less • Biopolymers • Polyolefins Toxic By influencing the rate of release and More Group Three Group Four transport of metals Toxic • Acids and bases • Halogenated aliphatic through the environ- • Ethers hydrocarbons ment and by altering • Alcohols and thiols • Lead their biochemical • Aliphatic amines • Mercury • Aromatic amines • Cobalt state, humanity has • Ethylene/propylene • Cadmium increased by several • Ethanol/methanol • Halogenated aromatic orders of magnitude • Phenols hydrocarbons (PCBs, DDT) the emissions of and • Aromatic hydrocarbons • Dioxins and furans its own exposure to toxic heavy metals. Source: Geiser In particular, the sto- Figure 4–3. Industrial Materials Groups ries of lead and mer-

80 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN cury—two potent neurotoxins (compounds dissipates easily, many assumed it would that harm the nervous system)—demon- never cause any significant environmental strate the scale of contamination, the result- or public health problems.22 ing human and environmental health Despite several initial setbacks, including problems, the difficulties of addressing such a challenge by the U.S. Surgeon General in releases, and, especially in the case of lead, 1925, the Ethyl Corporation aggressively the enormous health and economic benefits pushed TEL onto U.S. and eventually of reducing usage.20 world gasoline markets. The company Emissions of lead date back at least 8,000 favored TEL because it could patent the years, to the first lead-smelting furnace. compound—as opposed to ethanol, a During the nineteenth century, large-scale more effective and less polluting com- coal combustion released significant quanti- pound, but one that anyone could make. ties of mercury (a common contaminant in Leaded gasoline went on to become the coal) into the atmosphere, while the use of global standard for decades. Between 1926 large quantities of mercury to amalgamate and 1977, U.S production of TEL gold and silver dates back at least to the six- increased from 1,000 tons to 266,000 tons teenth century in Latin America. Despite per year. With widespread use of leaded gas our long history with these two elements, came a parallel rise in global contamination. the twentieth century brought enormous In Japan, airborne lead emissions increased change to the relationships. Metals con- about a thousandfold from 1949 to 1970. sumption in the United States jumped six- Today, TEL is responsible for some 90 teenfold between 1900 and 1998, compared percent of airborne lead emissions in devel- with a tripling in the use of wood products. oping countries.23 At their peak in the mid-1980s, global Quite literally, the legacy of the Ethyl atmospheric releases from human activities Corporation and other manufacturers that exceeded natural sources by a factor of 28 to deal with lead is written in human blood: 1 for lead and 1.4 to 1 for mercury.21 the average person today carries levels of The use of leaded gasoline throughout lead that are 500–1,000 times higher than much of the last century boosted global our preindustrial ancestors. Lead is now lead levels to unprecedented heights. In found in all living things and throughout 1924, three U.S. companies—General the environment. (Unlike copper or iron, Motors Corporation, Du Pont Chemical, free lead was virtually nonexistent in the and Standard Oil—formed a separate com- precivilization biosphere, which meant that pany known as Ethyl Corporation solely for humans and other species had no opportu- the purposes of producing and selling nity to evolve a natural defense to it.)24 tetraethyl lead (TEL), a compound that But the story of TEL does not end at the reduced the audible “knocking” sound in tailpipe. In the process of solving a noise cars during fuel combustion and was sup- problem, burning TEL created a corrosive posed to improve overall engine perfor- byproduct that ruins the engine. So in mance. Well before the additive was order to get the lead out of the engine and marketed, company and government offi- into the atmosphere as quickly as possible, cials knew of its dangers but assumed they scientists added another toxic compound, could control its release in factories and ethylene dibromide (EDB), to leaded gas. protect workers. Moreover, because TEL When EDB is burned it produces methyl

81 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

bromide, a developmental toxin and potent tion Agency (EPA) argued against its use ozone-depleting substance. Indeed, the until basic health tests were done, and World Meteorological Organization has although the American Automobile Associ- identified automobile exhaust from leaded ation warned that its use would damage cat- gasoline as one of the top three sources of alytic converters, in 1995 a U.S. federal methyl bromide.25 court allowed Ethyl Corporation to intro- By the 1970s, countries as varied as duce MMT, claiming it was not in EPA’s Brazil, the Soviet Union, Thailand, and the jurisdiction to ban MMT on health United States began to phase out leaded grounds. (At high doses, manganese is gas, although often for reasons unrelated to extremely toxic and causes nervous disor- the health effects of TEL and EDB. Brazil, ders and symptoms of Parkinson’s disease; for example, switched from gas to ethanol at low, airborne doses, its effects are in an effort to reduce its dependence on unknown.) Since 1977, MMT has been foreign oil and save the national currency widely added to gas sold in Canada. Most from collapse. The Soviet Union diverted U.S. companies now avoid it, however, high-octane, leaded fuel to the military dur- because of public health concerns. As the ing the cold war, leaving little choice for story of tetraethyl lead in gasoline and the Russian consumers. And beginning in related bromide and manganese-based 1975, the United States required automo- compounds illustrates, novel applications of biles to have catalytic converters to reduce chemicals can create new, unforeseeable carbon monoxide and other hazardous air problems, which then prompt chemical pollutants from vehicular emissions. As with producers to offer “solutions” that in turn older engines, leaded gas was incompatible create their own problems.28 with this new technology.26 People have been exposed to and poi- soned by lead in many other sources in The list of countries that have banned addition to gasoline. Lead has been added leaded gasoline continues to grow. to ceramic glazes, paints, electronics, batteries, and other products that emit it to The list of countries that have banned varying degrees when they are burned or leaded gasoline continues to grow. And otherwise disposed of. Some applications although 100 or so countries still use lead- are problematic during routine use: Lead in ed gas today, some have reduced the lead pipes leaches into water supplies, which content and others have begun to introduce happened as long ago as during Roman unleaded gasoline as an alternative. All told, times, whereas lead-based paint can peel off some 80 percent of the gasoline sold today walls, doors, and window frames and in the world is unleaded.27 become a deadly meal of dust for curious As the markets for leaded gasoline children. Children are at special risk from declined, the Ethyl Corporation and other mercury, lead, and other toxins because manufacturers faced significant profit losses. they “eat, drink and breathe three to four As early as the 1970s, the industry turned times as much per pound of body weight as its attention to a manganese-based com- adults do,” according to Richard Jackson, pound (MMT) that also had antiknock Director of the U.S. Centers for Disease properties and enhanced gasoline octane. Control and Prevention’s National Center Although the U.S. Environmental Protec- for Environmental Health.29

82 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

These other uses are not insignificant. mercury today are coal burning and solid Worldwide, for example, tens of thousands waste disposal, both of which are increasing of tons of lead (as well as other toxic met- in many regions. (Another main source, the als) are added to PVC each year to stabilize mercury cell method of industrial chlorine it at high temperatures. In North America, production, has been declining for many lead is now only added to PVC wire and years.) Asia now accounts for about half of cables, but in Europe it is still used in rigid the world’s annual mercury emissions from applications, such as pipes, where it can human activities, in large part because leach into water.30 China and India burn about one third of While turning to unleaded gasoline, the world’s coal. Between 1990 and 1995, many countries have also improved waste mercury emissions in Asia jumped 26 per- incineration and wastewater treatment cent. Several hundred million Chinese reg- technologies and reduced the use of lead in ularly heat their homes and cook in paint, batteries, and other sources. Conse- unvented stoves, exposing family members quently, global lead emissions dropped two to high doses of mercury as well as arsenic, thirds from the mid-1980s to the mid- fluorine, and other contaminants. Exposure 1990s. (See Table 4–2.) Although annual to mercury and other toxics comes from emissions have dropped, a huge reservoir of polluted air and water, but in fact we absorb dispersed lead must still be dealt with. most persistent bioaccumulative toxics in Global mercury emissions have followed a our food. Mercury illustrates this point.32 similar path in recent years, but the situa- In its inorganic state, mercury is a com- tion in developing countries is worsening.31 mon but poorly absorbed compound. In its The primary human-based sources of organic form, however, methyl mercury is both very toxic and easily Table 4–2. Global Atmospheric Emissions of Lead and absorbed by fish, birds, and Mercury by Major Industrial Source, Mid-1990s, humans. By unfortunate with Decline Since 1983 coincidence, bacteria commonly found in polluted Source Lead Mercury waters readily convert inor- (tons per year) ganic mercury to its more dangerous organic state, Vehicular traffic 88,739 — bringing it directly into the Stationary fossil fuel combustion 11,690 1,475 aquatic food chain. What Nonferrous metal production 14,815 164 are often dismissed as Iron and steel production 2,926 29 Cement production 268 133 inconsequential environ- Waste disposal 821 109 mental discharges of inor- Other 325 ganic mercury are easily transformed into methyl Total emissions, mid-1990s 119,259 2,235 mercury and carried up the food chain, where the mer- Change since 1983 – 64 percent – 37 percent cury is concentrated hun- SOURCE: Jozef M. Pacyna and Elisabeth G. Pacyna, “An Assessment of dreds and thousands of Global and Regional Emissions of Trace Metals to the Atmosphere from times over. Some 2,200 Anthropogenic Sources Worldwide,” Environmental Reviews (in press). tons of mercury are emitted

83 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

from human activities each year, while as lit- ease.” In the 1950s, large industrial dis- tle as one seventieth of a teaspoon is enough charges of mercury into Japan’s Minimata to contaminate a 25-acre lake for a year.33 Bay killed hundreds of people and left epi- One indicator of the growing environ- demiologists with a tragic record of the mental burden of methyl mercury is the workings of this powerful neurotoxin. Chil- number of fish consumption advisories dren born after the initial incident suffered issued by governments. (An advisory is from cerebral palsy, mental retardation, and issued when officials find concentrations of a severe brain defects, and some adults contaminant in local fish at a level that may became afflicted with a wide range of pose a risk to the public or to groups at high neurological disorders, including tremors, risk, such as young children, the elderly, or paralysis, blindness, and deafness. More the fetuses of pregnant women.) In the recently, researchers have found that when United States, the number of mercury advi- low levels of methyl mercury strike at sories for noncommercial fish increased key points in fetal and childhood develop- more than one and a half times between ment—as opposed to repeated occupation- 1993 and 2000. Almost 80 percent of fish al exposure or large industrial releases— advisories issued by state officials now they can slow brain development signifi- appear at least in part because of high levels cantly, prompting loss of cognitive skills of mercury. In February 2001, the U.S. and other effects.35 Food and Drug Administration warned Demonstrating the links between the pregnant women not to eat any top marine trends in the production of these toxins and predators, including swordfish and shark, the trends in human illness is difficult, but because of mercury. Based on studies from one thing is clear: efforts to reduce expo- the Faroe Islands and New Zealand, people sure to lead, a powerful neurotoxin, have who rely on fish for a large share of protein paid off. Since 1976, blood lead levels of in their diets are especially at risk of mercury American adults have dropped, on average, contamination. And in communities near more than 75 percent and those of chil- gold mines, high mercury levels in the dren, more than 85 percent. This means food chain have become a fact of life. (See that, on average, each American child born Box 4–1.)34 today has gained five IQ points over children born a generation ago, a gain that is People who rely on fish for a large share quantified as being worth about $45,000 of protein in their diets are especially at over the course of a lifetime (measured in risk of mercury contamination. terms of cognitive ability, memory, and educational achievement).36 Mercury’s impact on human health is But this good news is tempered by the well documented, unfortunately, because so reality that averages do not translate into many people have become ill after being equal gains for everyone. Research from exposed to it. As early as the eighteenth places as varied as Mexico City, the Cape century, workers who used mercury to Province of South Africa, and Rhode Island make felt hats from beaver pelts suffered shows that socioeconomic factors are from tremors, hallucinations, delirium, and important indicators of high blood lead lev- other signs of mercury poisoning, which els, especially among children. Approxi- gained a reputation as “mad-hatter’s dis- mately one out of three inner-city

84 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

BOX 4–1. GOLD MINING’S TOXIC TRAIL

Since the early 1980s, when the price of gold Health Organization (WHO) standards. Studies reached its all-time high, hundreds of thou- from Venezuela and the Brazilian Amazon show sands of small-scale miners or garimpeiros have similar results. Other residents of the region ﬂocked to the rainforests of Brazil,Venezuela, may be exposed to mercury by eating ﬁsh—an Guyana, and neighboring countries in search of important part of the diet of most native peo- this precious metal. In the Amazon, as in south- ples in the Amazon—containing mercury in its ern Africa, the Philippines, and other gold min- highly toxic form, methyl mercury. ing regions, small-scale miners use the same It is believed that since the 1980s,Amazon age-old formula to extract gold from earth and garimpeiros have produced between 80 and 100 rock. They pour mercury over crushed ore tons of gold annually. Mining this gold sends that they have dredged from riverbeds or roughly 100 tons of mercury into the Amazon mountainsides, believing the sediments may and another 100 tons into the atmosphere contain gold. They press out the excess mer- each year—accounting for about 8 percent of cury with their hands, and then burn the mix- annual emissions of mercury from human ture in order to evaporate the rest of the activities. Metals mining is a leading polluter heavy metal. The lucky few are left with a few globally. In the United States, for example, it is grains of gold; almost all will have inhaled or responsible for nearly half of the toxins absorbed some mercury in the process. released by industry. In 1999, U.S. mines sent Not surprisingly, many miners and their nearly 4 billion pounds of toxic pollutants such families have extremely high levels of mercury as mercury, lead, cadmium, and cyanide into the in their bodies. Tests conducted on the Wayana environment. Indians in French Guiana revealed that 57 — Payal Sampat percent of subjects had mercury concentrations two to three times higher than World SOURCE: See endnote 34.

African-American children today has elevat- carry more lead in their blood than is con- ed blood lead levels that are, on average, 80 sidered safe by the World Health Organiza- percent higher than the U.S. ﬁgure for all tion. In one district of the Chinese capital, children. (Lead poisoning persists in poor 80 percent of children had readings above communities in part because the houses the unsafe level. Almost universally, lead tend to be older and in disrepair, and fre- exposure is worse in developing countries. quently still have lead-based paint.)37 People who live in Dhaka, Bangladesh, for Other factors, such as proximity to high- example, breathe air that has the highest ways and nutritional status, also contribute atmospheric lead levels in the world. And in to the gross inequities in lead exposure and Africa, much of the gasoline sold today con- poisoning. Children living in rapidly tains among the highest levels of lead in the expanding urban areas of China, for world.38 instance, have blood lead levels up to four Although it has been 10 years since times as high as the average level for Amer- WHO described gasoline-based lead poi- ican children in the 1970s, when it was at soning as “one of the world’s worst envi- its peak. One in ﬁve children in Beijing ronmental problems,” this assessment

85 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN remains true today. Given current rates of additive, cumulative, and synergistic effects; industrialization, the continuing use of and allowing balkanization of regulatory leaded gasoline in some countries, rapid authority,” according to Sheldon Krimsky, a growth in vehicle production and road- professor of urban and environmental poli- building, and the persistence of lead in the cy at Tufts University. It is no wonder that environment, childhood lead poisoning and we are only beginning to discover how exposure among adults will continue to be everyday chemicals, assumed to be relative- an enormous global public health problem ly harmless—indeed, safe—are in fact jeop- for many years to come. Almost universally, ardizing our health and quite possibly that the urban poor will continue to bear the of generations to come. (See Table 4–3.)41 brunt of this health crisis.39 Consider PVC plastic: in addition to the While most health professionals recog- problems associated with stabilizers such as nize the need for a global phaseout of lead- lead, a majority of the additives that give ed gas to improve public health, we have this material its range of ﬂexibilities belong only begun to think in global terms with to a group of compounds called phthalates. respect to mercury. The Governing Council Because they are not chemically bonded to of the U.N. Environment Programme the resin (raw plastic), they can migrate to (UNEP) recently called for an assessment of the surface and leak into the surrounding mercury to be completed by 2003. At the environment. Under particular conditions, same time that we are gathering informa- some commonly used ones persist and tion, scientists are ﬁnding that the effects of bioaccumulate. In wildlife and laboratory mercury—like lead—will be with us for a animals, phthalates have been linked to a long time. Gold mines operating in Nova range of reproductive health problems, Scotia from 1860 until 1945 produced some including reduced fertility rates, miscar- 3 million tons of tailings (mine waste), riages, birth defects, abnormal sperm which include mercury as well as arsenic, counts, and testicular damage, as well as cadmium, copper, iron, and thallium. Scien- liver and kidney cancer.42 tists recently tested lake sediments down- Hospital patients receiving blood infu- stream of the mine and found that there is sions have been shown to be at risk of expo- still “no evidence of [a] downturn” in cont- sure to a commonly used phthalate known amination levels, despite the 50 years that as DEHP, which can leach directly out of have passed since the mines were closed.40 intravenous tubes and into a patient’s bloodstream. Adults who receive one or POPs and Precaution two transfusions are not believed to be in danger, but critically ill patients, such as Most chemicals are now tightly regulated premature babies, who require life-saving under environmental laws, usually in terms procedures are exposed to “very, very high of exposure limits for air, water, or soil. In doses,” according to a researcher at contrast, regulatory approval to introduce Boston’s Children’s Hospital Medical Cen- chemicals is less stringent. “Like the science ter. The U.S.-based National Toxicology that informs it, the process of regulation has Panel recently concluded, “there may be no taken a reductionist approach; seeking margin of safety” with respect to DEHP.43 chemical by chemical solutions; focusing on Recently, scientists at the U.S. Centers for too few [biological] outcomes; neglecting Disease Control and Prevention detected

86 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

Table 4–3. Chemicals by Health Effects

Health Effects Main Chemicals

Cancer arsenic, benzene chromium, vinyl chloride probable: acrylonitrile, ethylene oxide, formaldehyde, nickel, perchloro- ethylene, PCBs, PAHs, metals, other endocrine disrupters Cardiovascular diseases arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, lead Endocrine disruption aldrin, aluminum, atrazine, cadmium, dichlorvos, dieldrin, dioxins, DDT, endosulfan, furans, lead, lindane, mercury, nonylphenols, phthalates (including DEHP), PCBs, styrene, tributyltin, vinyl acetate Nervous system disorders/ aluminum, arsenic, benzene, ethylene oxide, lead, manganese, mercury, cognitive impairment many organic solvents Osteoporosis aluminum, cadmium, lead, selenium Reproductive effects arsenic, benzene, benzidine, cadmium, chlorine, chloroform, chromium, (such as birth defects DDT, ethylene oxide, formaldehyde, lead, mercury, nickel, perchloro- and miscarriages) ethylene, PCBs, PAHs, phthalates, styrene, trichloroethylene, vinyl chloride

SOURCE: European Environment Agency, Europe’s Environment 1998 (Copenhagen: 1998), p. 122; Kenneth Geiser, Materials Matter: Toward a Sustainable Materials Policy (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2001), p. 130; Françoise Brucker-Davis, “Effects of Environmental Synthetic Chemicals on Thyroid Function,” Thyroid, vol. 8, no. 9 (1998), pp. 829–31; “Agency Attacked Over Endocrine Disruptors Strategy,” ENDS Report, March 2000, p. 39. phthalate metabolites (breakdown products) reproductive and hormone-disrupting in the urine of women of childbearing age. effects of tributyltin (TBT). TBT, a form of DBP, a phthalate used in perfumes, cosmet- organic tin, was first introduced in the mid- ics, and other health care products marketed 1960s as an additive in marine paint that almost exclusively to women, was most was 10–100 times better than copper at commonly reported. Although this com- fending off algae, barnacles, and other pound is not known to cause reproductive “fouling” organisms that cause structural problems, others that are known offenders damages to ships and slow them down in were also found in the general U.S. popula- the water.45 tion, proving that exposure is far more com- Within a few years of the first use of mon than previously suspected.44 these anti-fouling paints, shellfish in north- The clearest and most undisputed body ern European waters began to develop an of evidence showing the ability of synthetic irreversible condition known as imposex, chemicals to disrupt the glands and hor- which leaves the species unable to breed mones that make up the endocrine system normally. By 1981, scientists had estab- comes from more than 100 species of mol- lished the link between reproductive toxici- lusks (mussels, oysters, snails, and other ty and TBT paints, based on tests in and shellfish), which have suffered worldwide around marinas and harbors. Residues of population declines and, in some cases, TBT have been found in bottlenose dol- complete disappearances because of the phins and bluefin tuna, animals that are

87 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN high on the aquatic food chain, showing States and Japan, a panel of scientific experts that TBT is a bioaccumulative compound.46 recently concluded that “estrogenic chemi- Several countries have since banned TBT cals can cause biological effects at levels paints from vessels, particularly smaller, below those normally found safe,” accord- recreational boats that tend to spend more ing to a report in Science. Lab tests even time in harbors and close to coastal areas. found damages to the reproductive organs But this paint is still used on larger, ocean- and the neurological and immune systems going vessels. In October 2001, the Inter- that were absent at higher doses. Given national Maritime Organization adopted an mounting evidence of human reproductive international convention that will ban TBT and developmental problems—including and related compounds in marine paints.47 declining sperm counts, rising rates of tes- As this example suggests, endocrine dis- ticular cancer and other male reproductive ruption is potentially “a far more serious disorders, increasing incidence of breast health problem than cancer,” according to cancer, earlier ages of puberty among young Dr. Terry Collins, a professor of chemistry girls—these findings regarding low doses in and an expert in “green chemistry” (the sci- lab animals suggest that environmental fac- entific field that focuses on detoxification) tors, including exposure to endocrine-dis- at Carnegie Mellon University. There are at rupting chemicals, may be to blame in least four reasons for this. First, the animal causing such problems in people.49 or person often looks and appears healthy As evidence of toxic and environmental even while suffering the effects of repro- damage mounts, the list of suspected POPs ductive, neurological, or immunological will grow and make the initial “dirty toxicity, so simple identification of the dozen”—10 pesticides plus dioxins and problem is difficult. Second, frequently furans, the unintentional byproducts of there is a long time lag between exposure combustion and other industrial and natur- and effects, so it is difficult to predict—and al practices—look like easy targets. The prevent—such effects until it is often too challenge of pinpointing which compounds late. Third, the effects of some chemicals, might be persistent organic pollutants and like TBT, cannot be predicted on the basis then proving they need to be banned is a of the compound’s chemical structure task that quickly becomes complicated and alone, making it difficult to screen chemi- costly. Adding to the challenge is the fact cals and identify which ones may be that long-term risks are not created solely endocrine disrupters. Fourth, many of our by metals and POPs. Depending on the cir- current regulatory limits are based on cumstances of their production and use, screening for cancer and other health other chemicals may create long-term prob- effects from high doses. But because lems, even if they are not called POPs. endocrine disruption can occur at low Chlorinated solvents, for example, are exposure levels, these compounds can slip generally not persistent enough to qualify below the regulatory radar screen and often as POPs, yet many of them are quite toxic: are perfectly acceptable under our current they have been linked to miscarriages, infer- regulatory definition of what is deemed safe tility, kidney and liver cancer, and various for human health.48 immune system disorders. A recent study Despite extensive counter-studies from showed that women who regularly worked industry-supported groups in the United with organic solvents (such as factory work-

88 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN ers, lab technicians, and graphic designers) ins. Because of the high stakes involved, had a thirteenfold higher chance of having these compounds require a new way of a child with a major birth defect than did thinking about and producing materials, mothers in other occupations. Some chlori- which is nothing short of a chemical revolu- nated solvents are now effectively consid- tion. Instead of asking ourselves how much ered POPs by certain regional agreements, harm we should allow, we should focus on notably the 1992 OSPAR Convention for preventing as much harm as possible.52 the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Northeast Atlantic. (While they may The Changing not be persistent, they may degrade into International Field other toxic substances that are much more stable.)50 Prompted by rapidly emerging scientific Another complication in identifying evidence and heightened public awareness, chemical culprits is that people are routine- the global community has moved far ly exposed to mixtures of compounds that beyond the goals laid out in Rio for chemi- can react in unexpected ways. Researchers cal safety. Indeed, we have begun to ques- from the University of Wisconsin looked at tion—and, in some cases, reject—the the combined effects on mice of two pesti- long-held presumption of innocence for cides and one fertilizer commonly used on toxic chemicals and called for a higher stan- U.S. farms—aldicarb, atrazine, and nitrate. dard of proof, a standard based on necessi- Although one of these compounds alone ty and informed consent rather than did not trigger a significant change in the convenience. With the Stockholm Conven- level of thyroid hormones, a similar con- tion on POPs now open for ratification and centration of a mixture of the three conta- funding available on an interim basis, politi- minants altered thyroid levels enough to cians, business leaders, health officials, envi- trigger behavioral, endocrine, and immune ronmentalists, and concerned citizens have changes.51 an enormous opportunity to embrace the In formulating so-called safety thresh- precautionary principle and rewrite the olds, we invariably focus on—and get human relationship with toxic chemicals. bogged down in a debate over—how much While treaties alone will not get rid of toxic of a toxic material to use and release accord- chemicals, they can help create a level play- ing to a highly politicized process of setting ing field and spur the technical and financial such limits. While the debates are usually transition that is needed to move the world based on the best available science, the sci- away from these chemicals.53 ence itself—because it is highly uncertain— The Stockholm Convention has many becomes politicized and subject to delay as notable features, including provisions to interested stakeholders question its meth- “turn off the tap” on new and existing ods, assumptions, and motives rather than POPs; the option for countries to require— weighing what is best for the economic bot- not simply promote—substitute materials, tom line of certain companies against what products, or processes; and a broad com- is needed to protect human and ecological mitment to the precautionary principle. health. Designing better regulations, while Parties to the treaty will examine any new important, is an inadequate long-term pesticides and industrial chemicals “with response to persistent, bioaccumulative tox- the aim of preventing” additional persistent

89 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

organic pollutants. Governments are also new and additional funding from industrial obligated to screen existing chemicals and countries to help developing nations pay for reduce the use and release of those with the required changes.55 characteristics of a POP. Perhaps more pro- Two other treaties—the 1998 Rotterdam foundly, they must promote “the best avail- Convention on the Prior Informed Consent able technology” and “best environmental Procedure (PIC) for Certain Hazardous practices” with respect to a number of Chemicals and Pesticides in International major industrial sources, including oil Trade and the 1989 Basel Convention on refineries, paper and pulp mills, metal pro- the Control of Transboundary Movements cessing plants, and all types of waste incin- of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal erators. Although such technologies and together with its 1995 amendment that practices have not yet been specified by the bans the export of hazardous waste from Conference of the Parties, these features rich to poorer countries—also have a big will help change social behavior “down to role to play in limiting the flow of toxic pes- the level of how municipalities deal with ticides and wastes. In addition, they provide their trash,” according to the treaty Chair, an opportunity for public access to informa- John Buccini.54 tion and greater transparency in the handling of hazardous materials, which too Richer countries have a special responsi- often occurs behind the scenes and is bility not to externalize their pollution becoming a more pressing issue as disposal costs via exports. sites fill up and waste piles grow.56 On the surface, the PIC procedure pales In an important compromise, the treaty in comparison to the far-reaching Stock- allows countries to continue using DDT, holm Convention. Essentially, it is a report- one of the “dirty dozen” chemicals it ing requirement that helps establish a addresses, in programs to control malaria- global information exchange system on pes- carrying mosquitoes or other disease vec- ticides. It is intended to be an early warning tors if a country files a request with the system to prevent the proliferation of pesti- Secretariat, closely monitors such use, and cides and encourage the adoption of alter- reports regularly to a publicly available natives. PIC was initiated on a voluntary DDT registry. This is a notable improve- basis at the global level in the 1989 revision ment over the situation today, in which no of the International Code of Conduct on one is responsible for tracking DDT. Twen- the Distribution and Use of Pesticides. At ty-six countries had requested such exemp- the 1992 Earth Summit, governments tions as of May 2001, but all parties to the agreed that PIC should have the status of treaty “must promote the research and an international convention. And by 1998, development for alternatives to DDT,” a prior informed consent had made the tran- significant obligation to ensure universal sition from voluntary tool to global legal support for alternative methods of mosqui- instrument. Although it is not yet in force, to control. The Stockholm Convention also most countries already abide by it.57 includes specific steps for implementing The PIC procedure requires exporting treaty requirements, including detailed parties to share information globally on mechanisms to ensure transparency and chemicals and pesticides each country has accountability as well as requirements for banned or restricted nationally. The Con-

90 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN vention’s Chemical Review Committee some legitimate recycling activities and considers such products and decides could inhibit trade. (The United States whether to place them on a list that will be signed the Basel Convention in 1989 but subject to the PIC procedure. Listed chem- has not yet ratified it.)60 icals cannot be traded until recipient coun- Like the Basel Convention itself, a cen- tries have been informed and have tral point of disagreement on the hazardous consented to the import. The sender is waste trade ban concerns the term “recy- obligated to comply with that country’s clable.” Some argue that recycling wastes is decision, and the decisions are made public preferable to using virgin materials, and so that other countries can track them and may help encourage proper disposal, and see how they were made. PIC gives poten- therefore that developing countries should tial destination countries the power to be allowed to accept hazardous wastes for choose what they will or will not accept, recycling. Environmentalists argue that the along with a growing basis of information recycling of hazardous waste via export is in order to make that decision.58 usually a polluting enterprise, as there are The 1995 amendment to the Basel Con- inevitably quantities of the material that vention takes the PIC policy to another remain as pollution and expose workers in level. As with PIC, the amendment is not the recipient country to health threats. Fur- yet in force but countries have agreed vol- ther, they argue that such export provides a untarily to abide by its prohibition on ship- major disincentive to preventing hazardous ments of hazardous wastes from industrial waste and avoiding the use of toxics in the to developing countries. A blanket ban such first place. One of the fundamental goals of as this will not only make it easier to detect the Basel Convention is to minimize the illegal shipments, it will, at least in theory, generation of hazardous waste and there- force industrial nations—typically the fore its trade. The Basel Ban is seen as a way source of hazardous waste—to deal with of implementing the convention, starting treatment and disposal themselves rather first with the industrial countries that pro- than dumping their wastes on poorer coun- duce the most waste and have the most tries. Worldwide, some 300–500 million resources to reduce toxicity and quantities tons of hazardous wastes are generated each of waste dramatically.61 year, according to UNEP estimates, with Behind the trade in hazardous wastes is a industrial countries accounting for 80–90 larger story involving the economics of percent of the total. With the Basel Ban, the unused materials and stockpiles. Like illegal Basel Convention recognized that free drug trafficking, illegal movements of haz- trade in hazardous waste was not accept- ardous wastes are hard to detect, thought able, and that richer countries have a special to be underreported, and difficult to con- responsibility not to externalize their pollu- trol. Tracking hazardous wastes from “‘cra- tion costs via exports.59 dle-to-grave’ when the cradle is in one Although the ban was passed by consen- country and the grave in another is nearly sus and is supported almost universally in impossible,” according to a recent study on developing countries, a few industrial hazardous waste flows under the North nations still oppose ratification. In August American Free Trade Agreement.62 2001, U.S. State Department officials Noting these difficulties, global networks argued that the Basel ban may prevent of activists, such as the Basel Action Net-

91 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN work, have sprung up to work on these 53 nations in Africa, for example, lack the issues. In January 2001, for example, a 20- institutional capacity to remedy the situa- ton shipment of obsolete mercury left the tion, much less the labs to do the testing now defunct HoltraChem facility in coastal and site analysis or the medical personnel to Maine, bound for India. With an alert sent treat victims of exposure. Expensive high- out from U.S. activists to colleagues in tech waste disposal methods are not an India, the union of port workers there suc- option in countries that rely on waste cessfully blocked the ship from unloading its imports for quick cash.64 cargo there. The ship was last seen in Port While the waste problem is not new, it is Said, Egypt, but activists are unsure where becoming more pressing. The global toxic the mercury finally ended up. The remain- waste pile is growing rapidly: plastics waste, ing 110 tons of mercury from this facility are such as PVC from short-lived items, contin- still sitting in Maine, awaiting their fate.63 ues to pile up, and we are near the end of the While banning chemicals is increasingly useful life span of “long-lived” (20–30 years) an accepted tool for reducing toxic burden, PVC materials such as pipes, siding, and dealing with toxic wastes in ways that do other construction materials. Electronic not exacerbate the problem is harder to do. waste is also mounting due to rapid obsoles- Incineration and burning can create dioxins cence of computers and other electronic and furans and other harmful pollutants. equipment and the manufacturers’ lack of Similarly, disposal of hazardous wastes on attempts to reduce toxic inputs in their prod- land and at sea has backfired, leaking toxic ucts. The present toxic waste challenge could compounds into the environment, dispers- take on the dimensions of a crisis during the ing the problem to larger areas, and allow- next two decades as thousands of tons of ing toxics to interact in unpredictable ways PCBs and other POPs are phased out, as to form new compounds. Recycling of haz- called for in the Stockholm Convention.65 ardous wastes is also a serious problem. Even though the yearly emissions of Recycling mercury, for example, reintro- many toxic compounds are now declining duces this toxic metal into products that and well below peak levels, what has accu- almost always have safer substitutes. mulated over the last several decades in the The scale of the waste problem is enor- environment is what ultimately matters in mous. Nearly every nation in Africa now terms of public health. Persistent toxins in shares the legacy of some 50 years of inter- soil, water, and even bedrock can be reacti- national development aid: more than vated by human or natural causes (as hap- 200,000 tons of abandoned pesticides, pened with arsenic poisoning from wells in about one third of which are thought to be Bangladesh), essentially keeping the threat POPs. Such stockpiles are continually creat- alive. Further, many new compounds are ing problems of their own—from water invented and put on the market each year degradation to acute human exposures— without proper testing as to their long-term through improper storage and misuse and impacts on the environment. Minimizing subsequent exposure. The situation is equal- the generation of new toxic wastes and find- ly grave in the former Soviet Union. The ing ways to detoxify or store current wastes reality is that much of the world’s unwanted are essential to protecting health. pesticides are housed in places that are least In combination with the POPs treaty, able to deal with their disposal. Most of the PIC and the Basel Ban will help stimulate

92 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN more responsible chemicals management national database of toxic emissions and and a better informed public. But having releases by manufacturing plants. Known as individual companies and countries report the Toxics Release Inventory, the data allow their activities to designated national author- citizens, companies, and the media to pub- ities and banning particular activities still licize the worst polluters and to bring pub- may not be enough to reduce the use and lic attention to the issues of toxic waste generation of toxics and to dispose of toxic management. This helped drive down wastes safely. What is needed is a market-dri- releases of an original core group of 300 ven impetus to refocus our efforts upstream chemicals by 45 percent between 1988 and toward prevention rather than the ultimate- 1999. Despite some notable limitations, the ly hopeless efforts at an end-of-pipe cure. TRI system is continually being improved. With more accurate information about the In April 2001, for instance, the U.S. EPA chemicals available, nongovernmental orga- drastically lowered the reporting threshold nizations (NGOs) and the general public for lead, from 25,000 pounds to 100 can help force this change through innova- pounds. Accordingly, information on hun- tive market-based programs, community- dreds of thousands of pounds of lead emis- based monitoring systems, and other tools.66 sions that were never previously reported will become public beginning in 2002.68 Environmental Democracy Such systems of tracking chemicals and and Markets emissions by industry are catching on elsewhere. Since Rio, eight industrial countries In October 2001, the Aarhus Convention and two developing nations—Mexico and on Access to Information, Public Participa- the Slovak Republic—have implemented tion in Decision-making and Access to Jus- systems like the U.S. right-to-know laws. tice came into effect, thanks to wide support Several others—including Argentina, the from a number of economies in transition. Czech Republic, Egypt, and five former (This regional agreement applies to 28 Soviet bloc nations—are expected to adopt countries in Western and Eastern Europe similar systems soon. Public right-to-know but is open to other governments.) It also extends to product labeling systems, encourages more citizen participation in which are now used in a variety of settings environmental issues and greater public from PVC-free toys and mercury-free ther- access to information previously limited to mometers to organically grown cotton T- government authorities. U.N. Secretary- shirts and chlorine-free bleached paper. General Kofi Annan has called the Conven- Simply by telling consumers what is in a tion the “most ambitious venture in the area product and how it was made, these systems of ‘environmental democracy’” since Rio.67 give the public the power to refuse to buy Establishing the public’s legal right to particular toxics. In addition to monitoring know what they are being exposed to dates emissions, registers and labeling systems back at least to 1986, when following the will help develop national POPs invento- 1984 Bhopal disaster the U.S. Congress ries, as called for in the Stockholm Conven- passed the world’s first community right-to- tion. And they help remove the wall of know law, over strong protests from indus- corporate secrecy, encourage greater public try officials. The Emergency Planning and participation, and provide a check against Community Right-to-Know Act created a government and corporate abuses.69

93 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

The vibrant and vocal NGO network a much safer product. As a company that sprung up during the U.N. POPs spokesperson says, “We will have to educate treaty negotiations provides ample evidence our customers not to choose their glass by that greater public access to information weight but only by its beauty.”72 does set the stage for greater citizen Similar sentiments concerning the involvement. The more than 250 NGOs importance of corporate education and represented in the International POPs public awareness-raising are heard else- Elimination Network outnumbered the where. In anticipation of a global ban on number of countries participating in the TBT (the antifouling marine paint), for U.N. treaty by almost two to one.70 example, the World Wide Fund for Nature Increased citizen awareness and partici- is now working with a number of shipping pation, whether in international negotia- and paint companies to organize a buyers’ tions or our own backyards, often translate group for TBT-free paint. Several compa- into growing political support for change. nies have already agreed to use safer paints In Mozambique, for example, local activists by the end of 2002. Likewise, many toy and political leaders successfully blocked manufacturers have pledged to phase out the construction of a Danish-funded incin- phthalate-softeners from toys and other erator. The country has since banned incin- items that children use in response to a ban eration as a method to get rid of stockpiled in the European Union, growing public pesticides. For an alternative, the govern- concern in the United States and elsewhere, ment can look to demonstration projects and the fear of losing business worldwide.73 now under way in Slovenia and the Philip- Taxes and ﬁscal policies can further sup- pines to treat PCB wastes with non-burn port the progress made in parliaments and technologies that do not emit additional boardrooms. Since 1970, for example, the toxic byproducts in the process.71 Netherlands has had great success in toxics Chemical bans have also prompted reduction by charging households and com- proactive responses from the regulated panies for discharges of heavy metals. Origi- industry. In late 2000, for example, the nally intended to raise revenues, levies based Swedish Parliament called for a national ban on the quantities of toxics released—com- on all persistent and bioaccumulative chem- bined with a permitting system—proved to icals by 2020. The law puts the onus on be effective incentives for companies to treat industry to prove that a chemical is safe (an their own discharges or switch to cleaner important aspect of the precautionary prin- processes. (See Figure 4–4.)74 ciple) rather than on government to show it Similar efforts have been undertaken is dangerous. While this may seem to dis- with pesticides and gasoline. Sweden, for courage innovation, it has in fact spurred instance, has a pesticide tax that adds a 7.5- new research as manufacturers whose liveli- percent surcharge for every kilogram of hoods appear to depend on toxic substances active ingredient purchased. This was one like lead have moved in a new direction. of a set of government initiatives that Orrefors Kosta Bod, a world-famous helped Swedish farmers cut their pesticide Swedish crystal glass company that dates use by 65 percent from 1986 to 1993. back several generations, is exploring the Many countries have reduced their con- use of barium instead of lead to give its sumption of leaded gas by taxing it at a crystal a similar luster but a lighter feel and higher rate than unleaded gas. Malaysia, for

94 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN example, made unleaded gas 2.7 percent Shortly after a highly publicized awards cer- cheaper than leaded, which increased the emony, companies that had regularly share of unleaded to 60 percent of the total. ignored regulators started asking how they Unleaded fuel was first available in 1991 in could improve their grade. Within 18 Singapore; by 1997, it accounted for 75 months, water pollution from the 187 pilot percent of the gas used there, thanks to dif- plants fell by 40 percent.76 ferential gas taxes. Twenty industrial coun- While we clearly need to scale up these tries introduced differential taxes at the and other efforts, an important step in the same time they implemented other policies, transition away from toxics—defining what such as stricter emissions controls, thereby tools should be used—has largely been accelerating the shift from leaded to achieved. This frees up intellectual capital unleaded gas.75 to focus on the more fundamental and chal- Combining the influence of financial lenging task of developing safer materials, markets with the power of the news media products, and processes. has helped reduce pollution in a number of communities around the world. It is an Technological Changes especially powerful incentive in countries and Opportunities where monitoring is lax and enforcement is weak, so that polluters typically have little “We have invested heavily in addressing the incentive to change their ways. In an exper- effects of the materials in our economy while iment in Indonesia, for instance, govern- mostly ignoring the materials themselves,” ment officials publicly graded factories writes Ken Geiser, Director of the Massachu- using a color-coded system: black for those setts Toxics Reduction Institute and author that made no attempt to manage wastes, of a new book on materials. In terms of tox- red for significant violators, blue for those icity, Geiser argues that we have barely begun that met national standards, and green for to scratch the surface of opportunities for those that went beyond what was required. reduction. Indeed, few sectors of the global economy have been scrutinized in terms of their use of toxic chemicals, 1976=100 120 let alone subject to actual change. Source: Baas One notable exception is agriculture, 100 Lead where much work has gone into adopting and improving farming 80 Zinc methods that are safer for farm work- 60 ers, consumers, and the environment. But for much of the rest of our econ- 40 omy, opportunities to reduce our use Chromium of toxics abound. As an official at the 20 Mercury New Jersey Department of Environ- 0 mental Protection recently stated in 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 an interview on toxics and pollution Figure 4–4. Industrial Discharges of Chromium and prevention, not only is “low hanging Zinc, 1976–93, and of Lead and Mercury, 1976–95, fruit” going unpicked, some is “rot- into Regional Surface Waters, Netherlands ting on the ground.”77

95 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

In response to human and ecological spraying. Indeed, malaria’s lethal grip on health concerns, increasing numbers of humanity is the reason DDT is still in use at farmers are abandoning the pesticide tread- all: some 950 people become infected every mill that makes farmers reliant on expensive minute by this modern-day plague.80 synthetic chemicals in favor of farming But alternatives are increasingly available techniques that use pesticides only as a last here too. Researchers in sub-Saharan Africa resort or that avoid them entirely. (See have demonstrated that bednets with small Chapter 3.) Recently, for instance, thou- amounts of humanmade pyrethroids, which sands of rice farmers in China demonstrat- are natural insecticides found in plants, can ed that growing multiple varieties of rice in reduce the transmission of malaria by pre- the same paddies could double yields with- venting mosquitoes from biting people who out the use of any synthetic chemicals. In are asleep. Combined with other preven- the U.S. Midwest, farmers who produce tion and treatment strategies, these bednets grain and soybean organically are finding can prevent half of all childhood deaths that their net profits equal or surpass those from malaria. In addition, they are easily from conventional production, even when introduced at the local level and relatively they do not charge the premium prices that cost-effective: $10 for a bednet plus $1 for organic crops generally command.78 a year’s supply of insecticide. Over the next five years, the Roll Back Malaria program, Many players in the solvents industry have which involves WHO, the World Bank, and begun to search for—and implement— numerous bilateral agencies, is planning a safer alternatives. thirtyfold increase in the use of bednets in Africa. Uganda and Tanzania have already Lucrative global markets—more than reduced taxes on nets to make them more $25 billion produced a year in at least 130 affordable.81 countries—combined with growing con- By using the least toxic option first, and sumer preferences and labeling have helped knowing the ecology of Anopheles, the make organic food a major influence in malarial parasite’s mosquito host, health offi- world food markets. Currently, between 3 cials are beating back this deadly disease in and 5 percent of European food is grown some areas. Although reducing the use of organically. (With 25 percent of the world’s DDT is a primary goal of the POPs treaty, pesticides used in household settings and this pesticide will remain in the arsenal of on commercial properties, and with pesti- public health protection—and rightly so— cide use in this sector rising, the next step is until all areas at high risk of malaria have to apply nonchemical methods of pest con- suitable alternatives in place. South Africa’s trol in schools, hospitals, public parks, and recent experience—a rapid and deadly come- private homes and yards.)79 back of malaria following the emergence in The use of pesticides to protect public 1996 of mosquito resistance to alternative health is also coming under increasing insecticides—has meant the reintroduction scrutiny by environmentalists and health of controlled DDT spraying in homes until professionals. Under the Stockholm Con- the outbreak is brought under control.82 vention, some two dozen tropical countries The same principles at work in organic that need DDT to fight malaria-carrying agriculture and public health campaigns— mosquitoes will be allowed to continue use the least toxic option first and know

96 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN your enemy—are equally applicable to the researchers have made promising advances vast range of chemical-intensive processes in “green chemistry.” Such efforts have typ- in our economy. Chlorinated solvents, for ically focused on finding environmentally example, are “one of the largest and most benign feedstocks, reagents, catalysts, and easily phased out” compounds, according chemical products. A variety of traditional to Joe Thornton, author of a recent book industrial materials are now commercially on chlorine. The key phrase is “phase out,” available in bio-based form, and their pro- since these highly volatile substances are so duction is growing steadily. (See Table difficult to contain. Many players in the sol- 4–4.) One company has developed plates, vents industry have begun to search for— bowls, and other food containers from a and implement—safer alternatives. The mix of potato starch, limestone, and post- classic case involves chlorofluorocarbons consumer recycled fiber. The packaging has (CFCs), a group of compounds with a wide been used by several hundred McDonald’s range of uses, from aerosol propellants to restaurants and is being tested in the cafete- refrigerants, whose output dropped 87 per- ria at the U.S. Department of Interior. It is cent between 1988 and 1997—prompted biodegradable and consumes significantly by the Montreal Protocol that targeted less energy throughout its existence than CFCs because they deplete the ozone layer either polystyrene plastic or paper, which that protects Earth from harmful ultraviolet are typically used.85 radiation. Technical ingenuity and innova- While recent and ongoing research in tion on the part of manufacturers played a plant-based industrial materials is gradually big role in this international success story.83 gaining a toehold in the market, much of Because solvents—indeed all chemi- the work remains behind the scenes of com- cals—cost money to use and dispose of mercial markets, off in laboratories. But properly, phasing them out with safer sub- those involved in such efforts predict that a stitutes makes good economic sense. A major breakthrough is closer than it might 1994 Massachusetts study reported that appear. In the next few years, companies buying chemicals and disposing of contam- will be building plants that use bio-based inated waste accounted for up to 85 percent materials, predicts Pat Gruber, Vice-Presi- of operating costs in companies that regu- dent for Technology at Cargill Dow. Her larly used solvents. Moreover, these same company has invested $300 million to build companies found that replacing chlorinated the world’s first facility to produce plastic solvents with safer alternatives yielded con- from corn sugar, known as polylactide poly- siderable health and environmental benefits mers, which is an alternative to traditional as well as economic savings. Most compa- petroleum-based plastics. Although the nies in the study reaped enormous benefits processing methods for these and other by replacing solvents with safer, often polymers are still in their infancy, notable water-based alkaline solutions: all but one technical improvements are expected. saved at least 75 percent in net operating Combined with the use of agricultural costs. The benefits demonstrated in this wastes (rather than high-grade sugars) as survey and through the Montreal Protocol the feedstock material and the entrance of have been replicated by numerous multina- several large research companies, plant- tional companies.84 based chemical manufacturers and plastics Supplementing these achievements, producers could be competitive with high-

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Table 4–4. U.S. Industrial Materials Derived from Plant Matter, by Production Volume and Share of Total,1992 and 1996

Production, Share of Total Product 1996 1992 1996 (million tons per year) (percent) (percent)

Wall paints 7.8 3.5 9.0 Specialty paints 2.4 2.0 4.5 Pigments 15 .0 6.0 9.0 Dyes 4.5 6.0 15.0 Inks 3.5 7.0 16.0 Detergents 12.6 11.0 18.0 Surface cleaning agents 3.5 35.0 50.0 Adhesives 5.0 40.0 48.0 Plastics 30.0 1.8 4.3 Plasticizers 0.8 15.0 32.0 Acetic Acid 2.3 17.5 28.0

SOURCE: Kenneth Geiser, Materials Matter: Toward a Sustainable Materials Policy (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2001), p. 262. volume petroleum-based ones in the next cautions: the plants can become so toxic decade or so, if not earlier.86 that they must be treated as hazardous Another promising avenue is the use of waste and kept away from animals, insects, plants to absorb and break down toxic met- and people; some chemicals may evaporate als and pollution, a field known as phytore- from the leaves; and although some com- mediation. University of Florida chemists pounds may break down in plants, this is have found ferns that can accumulate up to not true for elements. While they should 200 times as much arsenic as in highly con- not be used to justify greater waste genera- taminated soil. In some tests, as much as tion, these living sponges are already prov- 2.3 percent of the plant was composed of ing useful to contain and concentrate the this toxic metal. Currently, phytoremedia- problem of toxic wastes.88 tion accounts for just 1 percent of the $8- Progress in other cutting edge fields is billion environmental remediation market falling short. To date, advanced and engi- in the United States. But a number of neered materials that offer significant plants, including sunflower, poplar, clover, potential to reduce total materials use have mustard, and some herbs, can serve as the not been adequately tested for toxicity. botanical equivalent of detox centers for These include composites and super alloys polluted soil and water, often working in that are synthesized from byproducts of conjunction with the fungi and bacteria conventional materials, nanotechnology that thrive in the plants’ roots and soil.87 that requires less materials because equip- Although several hundred plant species ment is so tiny, and so-called smart materi- worldwide have been identified as potential als that change their properties in response “pollution sponges” for toxic compounds, to environmental conditions. “For all that is they do, however, come with a number of impressive and intriguing about these mate-

98 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN rials, it is disappointing to consider how lit- and consumption of chemicals are just as tle attention has been paid to their effects much a reflection of overconsumption as on human health or the environment….Sel- the volume of material used is. When peo- dom are even the most obvious health or ple think of overconsumption, they typical- environmental effects of production or dis- ly envision denuded forests, polluted inland posal considered,” writes Ken Geiser of the and coastal waters, and extinct animals. But Massachusetts Toxics Reduction Institute. the visible stockpiles of chemical substances In Materials Matter, he makes a strong case in our landfills and abandoned industrial for materials sciences to integrate the issues sites, as well as those that collect unseen in of human and environmental health effects our bodies, are no less a reflection of glob- as primary design factors along with the tra- al overconsumption of materials. In many ditional concerns for performance, process- ways, it is a more pernicious form of over- ing efficiency, and cost.89 consumption. Much of it is undetected and Even before such a fundamental shift can will remain a threat for generations to take place in the scientific underpinnings of come, owing to its persistent nature. More- our economy, consumers can take the lead over, these compounds interfere with nor- and demand safer products. This consumer mal biological functioning of species in mobilization will not only help spur the ways we have only begun to identify, let transition away from toxic materials in the alone fully comprehend. near term, but also begin to build the polit- The key to addressing the challenge of ical support for lawmakers to make the toxics use and wastes rests on a fairly deeper reforms in our economic and scien- straightforward principle: harness the inno- tific systems that will let us reach far beyond vation and technical ingenuity that has the “low hanging fruit.” characterized the chemicals industry from its beginning and channel these qualities in Moving Forward a new direction that seeks to detoxify our economy. Chemicals and materials In early 2001, the U.N. Commission on researchers will need to make concerted Human Rights declared that living free of efforts to find nontoxic alternatives. The pollution is a basic human right. With a primary purpose of research should be to number of treaties, programs, and commu- find safer substitute materials, products, nity efforts under way to reduce toxics use and processes for those that now contribute and waste, and with the Stockholm Con- to our global toxic burden. Proving the vention expected to be fully ratified as early necessity of toxic chemicals should also be as 2003, the next decade marks an era of foremost in the minds of producers, con- enormous opportunity to give life to this sumers, and policymakers alike. Only by declaration and make the planet a safer and realigning our uses of chemicals closer to healthier place.90 those found in nature will we build an Although toxic chemicals are a unique economy that is more accountable to the part of the materials economy, production environment and ourselves.

99 State of the World 2002 REDUCING OUR TOXIC BURDEN

WORLD SUMMIT PRIORITIES ON CHEMICALS

Short-term ➣ Phase out leaded gasoline globally. ➣ Ratify the three major global toxics treaties (Stockholm, Basel, and Rotterdam). ➣ Secure funding for research on alternative materials and environmentally sound methods of waste disposal. Long-term ➣ Adopt a uniform and mandatory system of reporting toxics use and releases. ➣ Tax commercial and residential pesticide use. ➣ Eliminate persistent compounds in dissipative uses, such as agricultural pesticide spraying and cleaning agents. ➣ Minimize the release of mercury, lead, and other toxins as byproducts from the mining of metallic ores and other industrial sources. ➣ Reduce and eventually phase out coal-based power generation.

100 SPECIAL WORLD SUMMIT EDITION SCIENCE/ENVIRONMENT W with a Foreword by U.N. Secretary-General Koﬁ Annan State of the World 2002 Worldwatch A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society

USA $15.95 Canada $23.50 B NORTON b www.wwnorton.com THE WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE www.worldwatch.org State of the World 2002

A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society

Foreword by Koﬁ A. Annan Secretary-General, United Nations

Christopher Flavin Hilary French Gary Gardner

Seth Dunn Robert Engelman Brian Halweil Lisa Mastny Anne Platt McGinn Danielle Nierenberg Michael Renner

Linda Starke, Editor

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ISBN 0-393-05053-X ISBN 0-393-32279-3 (pbk)

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W. W. Norton & Company Ltd., Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, London W1T 3QT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 This book is printed on recycled paper. Chapter 5

Redirecting International Tourism Lisa Mastny

Until recently, Kovalam, a small fishing vil- other facilities collect recyclable items, such lage in India’s Kerala state, could not keep up as glass, paper, and metal scraps, for reuse with its rising popularity. Attracted by palm- by local industries whenever possible. The lined beaches, friendly people, and a relaxed less desirable refuse—including human lifestyle, visitors from as far away as Europe waste, plastic bottles, and other non- began descending on the region in the mid- biodegradables—simply piles up in tower- 1960s. Over the next two decades, investors ing mounds or is dumped into nearby rushed in to meet the demand, building row streams, posing risks of cholera and other upon row of new hotels, restaurants, and disease. Yet according to Jayakumar Chela- souvenir shops. But in 1993, the tourist ton, a local activist, “Nobody bothers about stream—and the revenue it brought—began the health issues faced by the locals.... to slow. By 2000, visitor numbers had Everybody wants Kovalam beach to be dropped by as much as 40 percent.1 clean so it can get more business.”2 Tourism experts ruled out economic fac- These concerns are not unique to tors and shifting tourist tastes, and finally Kovalam. Increasingly, developing countries attributed the decline to rising visibility of are turning to tourism as a way to diversify the community’s waste management prob- their economies, stimulate investments, lems. Like many booming destinations in and generate foreign-exchange earnings. the developing world, Kovalam has no for- Tourism can be a lucrative and less resource- mal plan to deal with the mounting levels of intensive alternative to growing a single cash trash generated by tourists. Hotels and crop or to traditional industries like mining, oil development, and manufacturing.3 Yet tourism is one of the world’s least An expanded version of this chapter appeared as Worldwatch Paper 159, Traveling Light: New Paths regulated industries, which has serious for International Tourism. implications for ecosystems, communities, State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM and cultures around the world. Hotels, ment and Development in Rio de Janeiro. tourist transport, and related activities con- These include generating jobs and revenue, sume huge amounts of energy, water, and protecting the environment, and strengthen- other resources and generate pollution and ing cultural diversity. As the World Summit wastes, often in destinations that are unpre- on Sustainable Development approaches in pared to deal with these impacts. And many September 2002, many groups are building communities face cultural disruption and coalitions on some of the key issues. The other unwelcome changes that accompany challenge is making sure that this activity higher visitor numbers. Although fears of translates into measurable progress.6 terrorism and the safety of air travel have dampened interest in much international A Global Industry travel for the time being, over the long term the demand for tourism is expected to The World Tourism Organization (WTO), resume its rapid rise.4 an intergovernmental research and support Many governments, industry groups, and group based in Madrid, defines tourism as others are promoting “ecotourism”— the activities of people who travel “outside responsible travel that generates money and their usual environment” for no more than jobs while also protecting local environ- a year for leisure, business, and other pur- ments and cultures. While it does succeed in poses. Since 1950, the number of interna- some circumstances, ecotourism can suffer tional tourist arrivals has increased nearly from many of the same environmental and twenty-eight-fold, reaching 698 million in social pitfalls as conventional tourism, 2000. (See Figure 5–1.) These numbers are including using resources irresponsibly, cre- expected to again double by 2020, to 1.6 ating waste, and endangering ecosystems. In billion, although all estimates cited in this some cases, it is little more than a “green” chapter were made before the September marketing tool for enterprises hoping to pro- 2001 terrorist attacks. The figures also do mote an environmentally conscious image.5 not include the millions of people who trav- As tourism’s impacts, both good and el within their own countries—the bulk of bad, continue to spread, it is increasingly the world’s tourists, and a figure that would important to redirect activities onto a more make estimates between 4 and 10 times sustainable path. This will require deep sec- higher, depending on the location.7 toral changes that reach far beyond the Rising disposable incomes, along with scope of ecotourism. A broad range of the emergence of wide-bodied commercial stakeholders—including governments, the jets, cheap oil, and low promotional airfares tourism industry, international organiza- after World War II, have accelerated tions, nongovernmental groups, host com- tourism’s growth. And new information munities, and tourists themselves—will technologies like global distribution sys- need to be involved with sustainability tems, computer reservation systems, and efforts at all levels. the Internet enable travel agents as well as By redirecting tourism, these groups can individual travelers to check flight availabil- not only enhance the benefits of tourism, but ities, issue tickets, and make reservations also help meet many of the goals of Agenda rapidly. Between 1997 and 2000, the num- 21, the blueprint for sustainability agreed to ber of online bookings of flights and other at the 1992 U.N. Conference on Environ- travel-related services increased fivefold, to

102 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

25 million, according to the Travel Indus- and standardized mass tourism of the past try Association of America.8 half-century. In its place, rising numbers of Despite these numbers, tourism remains more flexible and independent travelers are restricted to a tiny, more affluent share of pursuing more personalized experiences the world’s population. Nearly 80 percent like culture or nature tourism. A study of of international tourists come from Europe U.S. travelers in the early 1990s supported and the Americas, while only 15 percent this shift: while 20 percent of respondents come from East Asia and the Pacific and 5 were “after the sun,” 40 percent sought percent come from Africa, the Middle East, more “life-enhancing” travel.10 and South Asia combined. Yet even these These broader trends are reflected in sur- figures are deceptive: in the United States, a veys of the most popular destinations leading source of tourists worldwide, fewer worldwide. Although Europe and the than a fifth of citizens hold valid passports. Americas continue to attract the most inter- All told, annual international tourist arrivals national tourists (the majority from within represent just 3.5 percent of the world’s the regions themselves), the traditional population. This share is expected to dou- dominance of these destinations is declin- ble to 7 percent by 2020 as global prosper- ing. (See Figure 5–2.) Meanwhile, tourism ity increases and the cost of travel continues to and within Asia, the Middle East, Africa, to drop.9 and South Asia is growing rapidly. The Nearly two thirds of international share of international tourists traveling to tourists travel for vacation, leisure, and East Asia and the Pacific rose from just 1 recreation as opposed to visiting friends and percent in 1950 to 16 percent in 2000. By relatives or health and religious factors. But 2020, this region is expected to be the most tourist tastes are gradually changing. popular destination after Europe. China is According to researcher Auliana Poon, expected to unseat France as the world’s growing displeasure with heavily commer- most visited country, and also to become cialized, overrun, and polluted destinations the fourth largest source of tourists world- is spurring a shift from the highly packaged wide—behind Germany, Japan, and the United States. Russia and several former Eastern bloc countries also Million 800 rank among the top destinations of the future.11 As it spreads geographically, 600 tourism is assuming a greater role on the world economic stage, but 400 the complex nature of tourism activities makes measuring this contribution difficult. WTO estimates 200 that between 1975 and 2000, Source: WTO international tourism receipts—the 0 revenue generated from tourist 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 spending abroad on such items as Figure 5–1. International Tourist Arrivals, lodging, food, entertainment, 1950–2000 tours, and in-country transport—

103 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

Percent for instance, calculating 70 not just direct tourist Source: WTO spending, but also the 60 indirect effects of this 50 1950 spending, such as generating income for 2000 40 farmers or creating jobs 2020 in construction. Mea- 30 suring this wider reach, the World Travel & 20 Tourism Council, a London-based industry 10 group, estimates that travel and tourism 0 accounted for some Europe Americas East Asia/ Africa Middle South Asia $3.6 trillion of econom- Pacific East Africa FigureEurope 5–2. Share of International Tourist Arrivals, by ic activity in 2000—or Americas

South Asia roughly 11 percent of

Region,1950 and 2000, with Projections forMiddle East 2020 gross world product, ast Asia/Pacific grew 35 percent faster than theE world econ- making it the world’s largest industry. omy as a whole, reaching $469 billion in Direct and indirect tourism activities also 2000 (in 1999 dollars). Countries in supported an estimated 200 million jobs in Europe and North America dominate the 2000, representing 8 percent of world lists of tourism’s top 10 spenders and earn- employment—1 in every 12 jobs.14 ers; China is the only developing country Like other sectors in today’s global econ- on either list. (See Table 5–1.)12 omy, tourism is becoming increasingly cen- Tourism represents a rapidly rising share tralized. In 1998, the world’s 10 leading of world trade. Any tourism service that a airlines earned an estimated two thirds of visitor buys when traveling abroad is con- the profits of all airlines that are members of sidered an export from the country being the International Air Transport Association. visited. In 1999, tourism accounted for And in 1999, the top five hotel chains— more than 40 percent of exports of services among them Marriott International, Bass and nearly 8 percent of total world exports Hotels and Resorts, and Choice Hotels of goods and services—surpassing trade in International—managed roughly 14 per- such items as food, textiles, and chemicals. cent of the world’s hotel rooms. Meanwhile, And its predominance in trade is wide- four European tour operators alone handled spread: according to WTO, it ranks among trips for some 50 million tourists in 2000.15 the top five export categories for 83 percent A driving factor behind this rampant of countries and is the leading source of for- centralization is the unregulated nature of eign-exchange earnings for at least 38 per- the tourism industry compared with other cent of them.13 service sectors. It is increasingly easy for Another way to measure the economic international businesses interested in impact of tourism is to look at its wider tourism development to enter markets effects throughout a country. This means, worldwide. This is especially true as more

104 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

Table 5–1.Top 10 Spenders and Earners of International Egypt, Thailand, Turkey, Tourism Receipts and Share of Total,2000 and Viet Nam. In the Caribbean, arrivals to Cuba have risen more Spenders Share of Total Earners Share of Total than ﬁvefold since 1990. (percent) (percent) Overall, tourism growth United States 14.0 United States 18.0 rates in the developing Germany 10.0 Spain 6.5 world are expected to United Kingdom 7.7 France 6.3 exceed 5 percent a year Japan 6.6 Italy 5.8 through 2020, outpacing France 3.6 United Kingdom 4.1 both the world average as Italy 3.2 Germany 3.7 well as anticipated growth Canada 2.6 China 3.4 Netherlands 2.5 Austria 2.4 in industrial countries. China n.a. Canada 2.3 (Again, the effect of the Belgium/Luxembourg n.a. Greece 1.9 recent terrorism events on these projections is not yet Top 10 Total 50.2 Top 10 Total 54.4 clear.)17 Across the developing SOURCE: See endnote 12. world, governments are pouring money into and more governments privatize national tourism marketing, infrastructure projects airlines and other state services, reduce like roads and hotels, and both large and domestic subsidies, embrace market small tourism businesses. To stimulate reforms, and liberalize trade and investment investments, many countries are offering policies more generally. Many developing promotional assistance as well as economic countries, in particular, are opening their incentives like tax and import duty exemp- markets to tourism in an effort to improve tions, subsidies, and guarantees. By luring their chances on the world economic stage. tourist dollars, they hope to diversify their But whether this actually brings widespread economies and attract the foreign exchange beneﬁts will depend on the extent to which needed to reduce heavy debt burdens, pay governments and the industry balance the for imports, strengthen domestic infrastruc- drive for more tourists with the need for ture, and boost social services like educa- more socially and culturally responsible tion and health care.18 tourism.16 Leading international lenders such as the World Bank and the International Mone- A Force for Development? tary Fund (IMF) are behind many of these efforts. In 2000, the Bank’s private-sector From Asia to the Caribbean, the developing arm, the International Finance Corpora- world has experienced a phenomenal surge tion, supported some $500 million in in tourism in recent years. One in every 5 tourism-related projects, including hotel international tourists now travels from an rehabilitation and urban revitalization. The industrial country to a developing one, up IMF, meanwhile, promotes tourism as an from only 1 in 13 in the mid-1970s. Rapid- important export strategy under its eco- ly growing destinations include Cambodia, nomic structural adjustment policies.19

105 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

In gross economic terms, these invest- Sierra Leone, after a decade of strong ments are beginning to pay off. In a survey growth, collapsed in the late 1990s as a of the world’s 100 poorest countries done result of the country’s civil war and eco- for the U.K. Department for International nomic decline. Even Brazil, with its vast Development, researchers found that land area and high tourism potential, spent tourism is “significant”—that is, it accounts only an estimated 2 percent of its public for at least 2 percent of the gross domestic budget on tourism-related activities in product (GDP) or 5 percent of exports—in 2000, compared with a world average of nearly half of the countries in the lowest more than 5 percent.22 income range and almost all in the lower- Yet even in developing countries that do to-middle income range. The study also attract growing numbers of tourists, the on- found that tourism is significant or growing the-ground benefits are not always as signif- in all but 1 of the 12 countries that are icant as the statistics suggest. WTO home to 80 percent of the world’s poor. In estimates that as much as 50 percent of the the world’s 49 so-called least developed tourism revenue that enters the developing countries, most of which are in Africa and world ultimately “leaks” back out in the Asia, tourism is now the second largest form of profits earned by foreign-owned source of foreign exchange after oil. In businesses, promotional spending abroad, some small island nations in the Caribbean or payments for imported goods and and Pacific, it brings in more than 40 per- labor.23 cent of GDP.20 Leakage is particularly high in the The World Trade Organization reports Caribbean, where 50–70 percent of tourism that tourism is the only economic area earnings go toward acquiring imports— where developing countries consistently from skilled staff to food and consumer run a trade surplus. And its importance in goods. Many hotels and other tourism busi- trade is growing. In 1999, international nesses in the developing world rely heavily tourism receipts represented two thirds of on foreign inputs either because the host services exports in these countries and more country lacks the luxury goods and services than 10 percent of total exports. (In indus- that many tourists demand or because the trial countries, meanwhile, tourism tourism sector is so poorly linked with other accounted for only about one third of ser- sectors like fishing, agriculture, manufactur- vices exports and 7 percent of total ing, and transport that it is difficult to pro- exports.)21 cure local supplies.24 Despite the potential benefits, however, Today, an estimated 90 percent of the some countries still invest very little in world’s tourism enterprises are small busi- tourism. Their governments either lack the nesses, from family-owned restaurants to internal economic capacity or face serious one-person snorkeling operations. Yet gov- geographic and political obstacles to ernments are under increasing pressure to tourism development. The South Pacific grant large-scale investors—including inter- island of Kiribati, for instance, is remote national airlines, hotel chains, and tour from other tourist centers, while the operators—easier access to tourism assets. Solomon Islands and Vanuatu are particu- Under a special economic relations treaty larly vulnerable to earthquakes and other with the United States, for example, Thai- natural disasters. The tourism industry of land is obligated to grant companies owned

106 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM and operated by U.S. investors the same greater advantage to foreign investors. The legal treatment as those owned by Thai General Agreement on Trade in Services nationals. Across the developing world, the (GATS), a 1994 multilateral trade agree- increase in foreign investments, mergers, ment aimed at liberalizing service indus- and franchising arrangements threatens to tries, requires governments to remove crowd out smaller, local operators who are subsidies and protections on local enterpris- unable to compete.25 es and makes it considerably easier for for- Foreign operators dominate the tourism eign businesses to establish franchises, industries of many countries, including transfer staff, and repatriate profits. So far, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. These at least 112 countries are committed to businesses typically send their profits back opening up their tourism markets under home, leaving little revenue at the destina- GATS—more than for any other economic tion. Meanwhile, the bulk of a tourist’s sector—suggesting strong international spending, including the biggest purchases interest in stimulating tourism investments. like airline tickets, tour packages, and rental A second trade measure, the Agreement on cars, occurs in the home country and never Trade Related Investment Measures even reaches the destination. According to (TRIMS), makes it harder for governments one estimate, if both the hotel and airline to require foreign companies to use local are foreign-owned, as much as 80 percent materials and input.28 of a traveler’s spending is lost to these businesses. Cruises and other all-inclusive tour In the world’s 49 least developed packages that cover not only airfare, lodg- countries, tourism is the second largest ing, and transport but also documentation source of foreign exchange after oil. fees, entertainment, and meals are notorious for funneling away tourism revenues.26 The employment effects of tourism are The small Central American nation of also mixed. Roughly 65 percent of the new Belize, which has seen rapid tourism jobs created by tourism annually are found growth in recent years, has witnessed many in the developing world, including posi- of these problems. In the early 1990s, expa- tions in restaurants, tour companies, and triates accounted for roughly 65 percent of construction. On small islands like the the membership in the Belize Tourism Bahamas, the Maldives, and Saint Lucia, as Industry Association, and an estimated 90 many as 45 percent of jobs are tourism- percent of the country’s coastal develop- related. Many of these positions go to ment was in foreign hands. Many Belizeans women: on average, women account for 46 oppose the rapid growth in luxury resorts percent of workers in the hotel, catering, and villas yet are unlikely to be able to and restaurant sectors—a much higher afford to buy the land back. Meanwhile, the share than in labor markets overall. Women presence of foreign investments, together also do much of the informal tourism work, with the higher purchasing power of such as running food and craft stalls.29 tourists, has boosted local inflation, raising For many people, working in tourism property and food prices.27 provides a welcome alternative to unem- These problems will only intensify as ployment. Yet more often than not, foreign countries implement new international or city-based workers hold the more lucra- trade and investment policies that give even tive management positions in tourism, leav-

107 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ing residents with low-wage service jobs— input in designing. Industry promoters may porters, maids, or laborers—that offer little reduce entire cultures to brochure snap- opportunity for skill-building. The Interna- shots, a depiction of local culture that can tional Labour Organisation reports that ultimately affect community self-perception tourism workers earn 20 percent less on and behavior. In the Himalayas, for average than workers in other economic instance, rising tourist interest in Buddhist sectors. And many of these positions do not festivals has led monks to shorten elaborate meet international labor or other standards: rituals to satisfy tourist attention spans and some 13–19 million children under the age has spurred a black market in religious art- of 18 now work in tourism, roughly 2 mil- work. Meanwhile, local involvement in the lion of whom have been lured into the events has dropped off.32 booming “sex tourism” industries of In general, it is difficult to separate the Southeast Asia and Latin America, where changes that tourism brings to communi- they risk exposure to AIDS and other sexu- ties from the wider effects of globalization, ally transmitted diseases.30 westernization, and rising economic pros- Tourism can also divert people from tra- perity. But tourism can accelerate the influx ditional jobs in agriculture and fishing, tight- of western values and material goods into ening the local labor supply and increasing indigenous areas, spurring changes in eat- dependence on external suppliers. In Grena- ing, dress, and other daily activities. Forest da, the government is replacing small-scale, tribes in Peru, for example, can now earn organic agricultural plots with large tourism more selling traditional cloaks to tourists resorts in a push to secure foreign invest- than trading them for axes or machetes—a ment, squeezing out local farmers. But if shift that has reportedly altered the eco- economies become too narrowly dependent nomic relations of villages. Increased con- on tourism, they are more vulnerable to a tact with mainstream culture can also lead collapse resulting from changing tourist to replacement of a native tongue with a tastes or other factors, such as fear of inter- dominant language, while the promise of national terrorism. As the aftermath of the tourism and other employment can lure September 2001 terrorist attacks illustrated, younger members of a community away, tourism workers are usually among the first threatening its long-term sustainability.33 to feel the effects of global insecurity or an In extreme cases, native communities economic downturn.31 have been forcefully evicted from their Tourism also has impacts on local cul- homelands to make room for tourists. In tures. On the one hand, it can heighten the 1950s, Kenya’s colonial government respect for minority groups, helping to drove the nomadic Masai from their tradi- revive languages, religious traditions, and tional grazing lands to accommodate safari other practices that might otherwise be lost. lodges and visitors to the newly created Tourist demand for dancing and other arts national parks and wildlife sanctuaries. The has reportedly fostered an artistic revival in Masai have since won greater involvement Bali, Indonesia, while in Peru, rising tourist in the management and use of their interest in traditional healing has spurred a resources and have been able to meet com- resurgence of shamanism. But indigenous munity needs with money earned leasing communities often end up the “featured their land. Yet they still face the social and attractions” of ventures they have had little cultural repercussions of tourism, including

108 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM misrepresentation of their crafts and rituals 42 percent travel by road and 15 percent and a rising incidence of prostitution, alco- use either ship or rail. Air travel has been holism, and drug use. More recently, particularly important in the developing Burmese authorities gave the 5,200 resi- world, where in some countries at least 90 dents of Pagan only two weeks notice percent of tourists arrive by plane.37 before evicting them in 1990 and turning Unfortunately, air transport is also one the ancient pagodas where they lived into a of the world’s fastest growing sources of tourist attraction.34 emissions of carbon dioxide and other Despite the potential negative impacts, greenhouse gases, responsible for global cli- many communities still favor increased mate change. The Intergovernmental Panel tourism because they see greater economic on Climate Change reports that aircraft and cultural opportunities. Some indige- emissions contributed roughly 3.5 percent nous groups, such as Panama’s Kuna peo- of human-generated greenhouse gases in ple, hope to maximize the benefits of 1992—and this share is expected to rise tourism while fighting some of the unwel- steadily as air travel increases. Tourists cur- come changes. In 1996, the Kuna ratified a rently account for about 57 percent of all Statute on Tourism that limits the number international air passengers. But they may of hotels yet ensures the collection of tax be responsible for a much higher share of revenue and the redistribution of benefits jet fuel use because they tend to travel among community members.35 longer distances.38 Once tourists arrive at their destinations, Environmental Impacts their choices of where to sleep, eat, shop, of Tourism and be entertained increasingly come at the expense of the environment. Natural and As soaring air travel brings many of Earth’s rural landscapes are rapidly being converted most ecologically fragile destinations within to roads, airports, hotels, gift shops, park- easy reach, concern about tourism’s envi- ing lots, and other facilities, leading to dete- ronmental impacts is rising. Travelers from rioration of the scenery, wildlife habitats, industrial countries often try to replicate and other sites that are the attraction in the their own high consumption lifestyles, first place. The number of hotel rooms increasing the pressures on ecosystems and worldwide increased by more than 25 per- resources. Yet few developing-country gov- cent between 1990 and 1998, to an esti- ernments have the capacity to protect their mated 15 million. The trend is toward attractions adequately from all these new larger hotels, particularly in the newer des- visitors.36 tinations. At the world-famous Victoria Tourism’s environmental impacts can Falls, shared by Zambia and Zimbabwe, a begin even before arrival. Studies suggest new multimillion-dollar hotel was recently that as much as 90 percent of a tourist’s built only a few meters from the water. The energy consumption is spent in getting to Zambezi River there is already polluted and from the destination. Increasingly, the with detergents, uncollected garbage, and passenger jet is overtaking the automobile human waste from existing hotels—the as the primary means of tourist transport: result of poor regional tourism planning.39 an estimated 43 percent of international At coastal destinations in the Caribbean tourists now fly to their destinations, while and elsewhere, construction methods like

109 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

sand mining and dredge-and-fill have shortages and raising utility prices. Tourists destroyed dunes and wetlands, caused in Grenada are said to use seven times as groundwater supplies to become brackish, much water as local people, and foreign- and stirred up nearby waters—choking owned hotels get preference over residents coral reefs and diminishing fish populations. during droughts. And a popular golf course In Cancun, Mexico, large swaths of man- on an island in Malaysia reportedly uses as grove forests, salt marshes, and other wet- much water annually as a local village of land areas that harbor wildlife and protect 20,000. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the reefs have been cleared and filled to make diversion of water to tourist lodges and room for resorts, piers, and marinas. These restaurants threatens to destroy paddy irriga- areas are often shored up with topsoil tion at the 3,000-year-old Banaue rice ter- scraped from inland wetland savanna areas, races, an important cultural heritage site.42 resulting in the disruption of two valuable In addition to consuming water, energy, ecosystems. Currently, some 21 new resort and other resources, tourism creates large complexes are being built along Mexico’s quantities of waste. The U.N. Environment Yucatan coast—a construction frenzy Programme (UNEP) estimates that the expected to nearly triple the number of area average tourist produces roughly 1 kilo- hotel rooms to 24,000.40 gram (2.2 pounds) of solid waste and litter each day. Hotels, swimming pools, golf In the Cayman Islands, more than 120 courses, marinas, and other facilities also hectares of reefs have been lost as a generate a wide variety of harmful residues result of cruise ships anchoring in on a daily basis, among them synthetic George Town harbor. chemicals, oil, nutrients, and pathogens. Improperly disposed of, this waste can dam- The world’s hotels and their guests use age nearby ecosystems, contaminating massive quantities of resources on a daily water sources and harming wildlife.43 basis, including energy for heating and Many tourist facilities in the developing cooling rooms, lighting hallways, and cook- world possess limited or no sewage treating meals, as well as water for washing laun- ment facilities, in part because of weak envi- dry, filling swimming pools, and watering ronmental legislation or a lack of money, golf courses. This resource use is not only monitoring equipment, and trained staff. expensive, it can also damage the environ- As recently as 1990, none of the 22,000 ment. Tourist facilities are contributing to beachfront hotel rooms in Pattaya, Thai- the drying up of Israel’s famed Dead Sea: in land, were attached to a sewage plant; as of the last 50 years, water levels have dropped 1996, only 60 percent of that city’s sewage by an estimated 40 meters, leaving barren, was being processed. And a 1994 study for salty mudflats that are hostile to native the Caribbean Tourism Organization plants and birds. Environmentalists predict reported that hotels in that region released that at current rates of drawdown, the Dead some 80–90 percent of their sewage with- Sea could disappear completely by 2050.41 out adequate treatment in coastal waters, At destinations where fresh water is near hotels, on beaches, and around coral scarce, overconsumption by tourists and reefs and mangroves.44 tourism facilities can divert supplies from Cruise ships are notorious for their waste local residents or farmers, exacerbating disposal problems. Worldwide, the number

110 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM of people taking a cruise nearly doubled Visits to Cambodia’s centuries-old Angkor between 1990 and 1999, to 9 million pas- temples more than doubled in 1999 follow- sengers annually. The San Francisco–based ing the government’s decision to open Bluewater Network reports that on a one- the nearby town to international flights— week voyage, a typical cruise ship generates intensifying pressures on the already fragile some 3.8 million liters of graywater (water stone structures. In many of the world’s from sinks, showers, and laundry); 795,000 parks, plastic water bottles, soda cans, liters of sewage; 95,000 liters of oily bilge and gum wrappers are an increasingly com- water; 8 tons of garbage; 416 liters of pho- mon sight.47 tographic chemicals; and 19 liters of dry The presence of tourists in natural areas cleaning waste. Many older vessels have lit- can affect wildlife behavior and populations. tle alternative to dumping much of this Around the world, whale-watching boats waste overboard. According to one esti- relentlessly pursue whales and dolphins and mate, the world’s cruise ships discharge even encourage petting, influencing the some 90,000 tons of raw sewage and animals’ feeding and social activity. Similar- garbage into the oceans each day. And ly, tourist vehicles that approach cheetahs, untold quantities are dumped illegally: in lions, and other animals in Africa’s safari one highly publicized case, Royal parks can distract these creatures from Caribbean Cruises received a record $18 breeding or stalking their prey. Safari million fine in July 1999 for 21 counts of tourists are also reportedly one of the top discharging excess oily bilge and other pol- markets for illegal elephant ivory, which is lutants into U.S. waters and for attempting banned under international law yet often to cover up its crime.45 sold to unsuspecting tourists in the form of These problems will likely worsen as souvenir carvings.48 shipbuilders rush to meet the rising demand At particularly fragile destinations, such for cruise vacations. In 2001, at least 53 as small islands, it can take relatively few vis- new vessels were on the order books. Many itors to leave a mark. Tourists can uninten- newer ships resemble “floating cities,” tionally trample vegetation or disturb boasting more than 2,000 passengers and nesting seabirds, breeding seals, or other up to 1,000 crew members. To accommo- animals, and they can bring invasive plants date these larger vessels, countries often and animals in with their equipment or lug- dredge deep-water harbors or modify their gage. The introduction of these “exotic” coastlines, destroying coastal ecosystems in species threatens to destroy the unique flora the process. When ships dock, their massive and fauna of Ecuador’s Galapagos Islands, anchors and chains can break coral heads where tourism has increased by 66 percent and devastate underwater habitats: in 1994, since 1990 and where the local popula- one local scientist in the Cayman Islands tion—attracted by tourism’s potential—has reported that more than 120 hectares of doubled in the past 15 years.49 reefs had been lost as a result of cruise ships In mountain areas, resorts and related anchoring in George Town harbor.46 infrastructure can disrupt animal migration, Busloads of cruise passengers, day-trip- divert water from streams, create waste that pers, and other visitors are overwhelming is difficult to dispose of at high altitudes, fragile cultural and natural sites that are ill and deforest hillsides, triggering landslides. equipped to manage rising tourist numbers. In one Nepalese mountain village, an esti-

111 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM mated hectare of virgin rhododendron for- the economies of low-lying tropical coun- est is reportedly cut down each year for tries like the Maldives, where tourism gen- fuelwood to support the country’s boom- erates more than 85 percent of ing trekking industry, causing the erosion foreign-exchange receipts. If the environ- of some 30–75 tons of soil annually. And in mental damage is significant enough, a des- Tanzania, the number of trekkers on the tination may begin to lose visitors, as is the trails of Mount Kilimanjaro has risen so dra- case in Kovalam in India and in many pop- matically that the government had to dou- ular destinations in the industrial world, ble the daily climbing fee to $100 per including Germany’s Black Forest and person in September 1999 to slow serious Italy’s Adriatic coast. Environmental deteri- erosion and other environmental harm.50 oration also continues to impede efforts to In coastal areas, popular recreational boost tourism to many cities in the devel- activities such as scuba diving, snorkeling, oping world: Cairo’s urban sprawl, for and sport fishing are damaging coral reefs instance, often alienates visitors, as does the and other marine resources (though this growing gridlock and pollution in places destruction is minor compared with the like Bangkok and Beijing.52 impacts of coral bleaching, overfishing, and ocean pollution). UNEP estimates that each Ecotourism—Friend or Foe? year some 300,000 scuba diving trips are advertised to the world’s estimated 6 mil- Over the past decade or so, tourism author- lion divers. With their fins and hands, divers ities, environmentalists, academics, and and snorkelers have reportedly broken as others have embraced ecotourism as a way many as 10 percent of coral colonies at pop- to address some of tourism’s negative ular Red Sea reefs off Egypt and Israel. A impacts while simultaneously generating study of self-guided snorkel trails in Aus- foreign exchange, creating jobs, and stimu- tralia found similar damage at sites visited lating investment. The Vermont-based by an average of only 15 snorkelers per International Ecotourism Society defines week. And research off the Caribbean island ecotourism as “responsible travel to natural of Bonaire reveals that heavy diving at many areas that conserves the environment and sites has changed the composition of reefs, sustains the well-being of local people.” with more opportunistic, branching corals The United Nations has demonstrated its taking the place of older, large coral support for the concept by declaring 2002 colonies. Souvenir shops and restaurants the International Year of Ecotourism.53 around the world also contribute to the Yet whether ecotourism can actually destruction, looting reefs for shells, coral, achieve its ambitious goals is increasingly and seafood to meet tourist demand.51 under question. Part of the problem is def- Not surprisingly, the environmental initional. Growing numbers of hotels and damage caused by tourism can ultimately tour operators now bill themselves as eco- hurt the industry by destroying the very tourism outfits, whether they are environ- reefs, beaches, forests, and other attractions mentally responsible or not. One operator that lure visitors in the first place. Already, in Cusco, Peru, for instance, estimates that global warming caused in part by rising airless than 10 percent of the local trekking craft emissions is raising sea levels and dam- companies really fit the “eco” bill. And aging coral reefs worldwide, threatening many tourists now call any travel that

112 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM occurs in natural settings ecotourism. The a survey of tourists in Central America cited line between genuine ecotourism and protected areas as an important factor in nature travel more broadly has become choosing their destination.57 increasingly blurred.54 Once they have established parks and Ecotourism, broadly defined, is one of reserves, however, not all governments are the fastest growing segments of the tourism willing or able to pay for the upkeep. industry—though the varying definitions Worldwide, financial support for these areas make it difficult to measure. The Interna- is dwindling. Many governments hope to tional Ecotourism Society estimates that use tourist admission fees and donations to this form of travel is growing by 20 percent boost park management, strengthen infra- annually (compared with 7 percent for structure, and protect against encroach- tourism overall) and generated some $154 ment. This self-financing mechanism has billion in receipts in 2000. One 1992 study been more successful in some areas than found that as many as 60 percent of inter- others. (See Box 5–1.)58 national tourists traveled to experience and enjoy nature, while as many as 40 percent Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Kenya, and South traveled specifically to observe wildlife, such Africa have all witnessed an explosion as birds and whales.55 in privately owned nature reserves. Though most of the world’s ecotourists come from North America and Europe, As an alternative, many countries are many of the top destinations are in the devel- actively wooing private tourism investments oping world. Popular activities include safaris to help protect natural areas. Brazil, Chile, in Africa, trekking in the Himalayas, hiking Colombia, Kenya, and South Africa have all in the rainforests of Central and South witnessed an explosion in the number of America, and scuba diving and snorkeling in privately owned nature reserves, many of Southeast Asia and the Caribbean. This which open their lodges and trails to demand is expected to continue well into the tourists. Two private reserves in Central new century: WTO predicts that the trendi- America—Costa Rica’s Monteverde Cloud est destinations of the future will be “the Forest and Belize’s Community Baboon tops of the highest mountains, the depths of Sanctuary—are well managed and generate the oceans, and the ends of the earth.”56 sufficient income from tourist fees. In a sur- Rising interest in ecotourism has had vey of 32 private reserves in Latin America many positive benefits. Around the world, and sub-Saharan Africa, researcher Jeff governments are setting aside valuable nat- Langholz found that more than half were ural areas as national parks or protected profitable and that their overall profitability areas, sparing them from more environmen- had risen 21 percent since 1989. On aver- tally destructive activities like agriculture, age, tourism revenues provided more than logging, or mining. Some of the greatest 67 percent of reserve income.59 increases in ecotourism have occurred in Some eco-resorts display a high level of places with the highest numbers of protect- environmental commitment, carefully mon- ed areas. In 1997, an estimated 60 percent itoring visitor impacts as well as their own of the nearly 6 million tourists who visited ecological and social footprints. The most South Africa stopped at a national park or basic lodges are fueled by propane, reserve. And nearly half of all respondents in kerosene, solar, or wind energy rather than

113 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

BOX 5–1. CAN ECOTOURISM PAY ITS WAY?

As government funding for parks and protect- to pay much more than they do to visit natural ed areas dwindles, more and more natural sites areas. Surveys in the United States found that in the developing world are relying on tourist 63 percent of travelers would pay up to $50 dollars to support themselves. The Bonaire toward conservation in the area visited, while Marine Park, for example, began collecting a 27 percent said they would pay as much as $10 fee from visiting divers and snorkelers in $200. Studies at Komodo National Park sug- 1991.Within a year, the park had raised gest that visitors there would be willing to pay enough money from the program to cover as much as 10 times the current entry fee. annual operation and maintenance costs. The few sites that do charge significantly Yet this self-financing does not work every- higher entry fees and apply them to conserva- where. In Costa Rica, visitor entry fees provide tion and management are benefiting greatly only about a quarter of the park service’s annu- from this approach, particularly when the sys- al budget for management and protection; the tem allows for different pay levels for tourists rest must be raised from donations.And and local people. Ecuador’s Galapagos National tourism revenue at Indonesia’s Komodo Nation- Park has reportedly recouped nine times its al Park covered only an estimated 7 percent of management costs by charging foreign visitors total park expenditure in the early 1990s. $100. And gorilla viewing—at $250 a day— In some instances, no tourist dollars are subsidized all 11 of Uganda’s national parks in reinvested in conservation or park manage- the late 1990s, providing 70 percent of the rev- ment—going instead to central government enue of the fledgling park system. coffers or corrupt park authorities. According Yet some ecotourism sites may never see to one study, not a single cent of the $3.7 mil- enough visitors to support themselves, even lion that tourists paid to visit the islands off with higher entry fees. Studies in the Central Mexico’s Baja Peninsula in 1993 went directly African Republic’s Dzangha-Sangha protected to the protection or management of these area suggest that tourist numbers would have to areas. increase nearly eightfold to generate a positive In other instances, park authorities charge return on investment—a near impossibility— woefully low admission, or else demand no even if entry fees jumped from $16 to $200. fees at all out of a fear this will deter tourists. Yet studies show that many tourists are willing SOURCE: See endnote 58.

electricity or fuelwood, use no indoor But not all private ecotourism invest- plumbing, and generate minimal waste. The ments are as conservation-oriented. The ris- Sí Como No resort, in Costa Rica’s popular ing commercial presence of large hotels, Manuel Antonio National Park, relies on restaurants, and other concessions near or solar energy, uses aerial bridges instead of inside park boundaries threatens to destroy roads or walkways, puts in native plants to the natural settings of many destinations. halt erosion, sponsors beach cleanups, and China, for instance, is aggressively transfer- asks guests to reuse sheets and towels, ring control of its important scenic and among other environmental actions.60 cultural sites to private development com-

114 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM panies, who then profit from their monop- benefits to both local communities and the olies by charging admission fees and collect- environment. Initiatives that are either ing revenues from hotels, restaurants, and managed by the community or that share a gift shops. In some instances, the environ- substantial portion of their profits with ment has also benefited: at the scenic moun- local residents can be particularly successful tain site of Huangsan, litter is now virtually at achieving these goals. They can range nonexistent and forest cover has increased from low-impact, homegrown efforts like markedly since the 1980s. But two planned offering an extra room or meal, renting out hotels and three new cable car runs, as well a small cabana, or showcasing traditional as increased pedestrian traffic, could ulti- dances, to larger-scale investments like eco- mately destroy ecosystems in the area.61 lodges or canopy walkways. Although all Indeed, as ecotourism enters the main- residents do not necessarily benefit, these stream, it increasingly faces many of the initiatives can help to spread tourism’s ben- same problems as conventional tourism. efits more widely. In Ecuador’s Amazon, Many early ecotourists were motivated by a for example, the Huaorani have set up a keen environmental and political awareness community project that distributes nightly and had little choice but to take local trans- tourist fees among all the families and earns port, stay in locally run accommodations, residents twice what they could get working and eat locally. But today’s ecotourists are for an oil company.64 “less intellectually curious, socially respon- A high level of participation is desirable sible, environmentally concerned, and not only because it can reduce revenue leak- politically aware” than in the past, accord- age, but because it can heighten local appre- ing to author Martha Honey. They demand ciation for wildlife and other natural higher-end facilities, many of which are for- resources. One Ugandan farmer, talking eign-owned, consume more resources, and about the recent boost in gorilla-related produce mounting levels of waste. And tourism at the nearby Budongo Forest because their trips are often only a week or Reserve, reportedly remarked of the bene- even a day long, they do not always consid- fits, “We never thought that vermin like er the long-term repercussions of their vis- these monkeys could become a source of its or feel the need to follow every rule.62 money. . . now they pay for our schools.” In few places is the risk of “mass” eco- When local communities see direct benefits tourism more apparent than in Costa Rica, from tourism, they are more likely to slow once a little-known tropical destination. It resource use and to actively protect natural has since become so popular that new air- areas. Subsistence farmers participating in ports, beachfront resorts, golf courses, and Zimbabwe’s 23-district CAMPFIRE project marinas are being built to accommodate the recognize they can earn three times more more than 700,000 tourists who arrive from offering wildlife viewing, sustainable annually, threatening to destroy the lush safari hunting, and other tourism-related rainforests and other natural sites that they activities on their land than from resource- come to see.63 intensive cattle ranching. Around the world, Nevertheless, there are efforts to pro- many former poachers, hunters, and fishers mote a more “genuine” form of ecotourism now guide tourists through nearby jungles that requires less land and resources, gener- or reefs, leaving little time or need for these ates less waste and pollution, and brings previous destructive activities.65

115 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

Alternatively, studies show that when ecotourism partnership. The project has tourism initiatives exclude local people trained local residents—predominantly sub- from participating in the management and sistence farmers, herders, and traders—in use of natural areas where they grow food, such skills as food preparation and menu raise livestock, and gather fuel, they are costing, safety and security for trekkers, and more likely to resent these efforts and seek carpet weaving, allowing them to integrate to undermine them, ultimately compromis- tourism with their own farming activities ing conservation goals. Areas that exclude and handicrafts. ACAP has helped conserve local participation and use have seen rising forests and other resources by setting up incidences of poaching, vandalism, and micro hydroelectricity plants on streams and even armed conflict. One Galapagos fisher installing solar water heaters in the lodges, reportedly said of government efforts to while residents manage a revolving fund to limit local use of the park’s resources: “If help pay for latrines and garbage pits. Large- the government does not lift the fishing ban ly as a result of the project, tourist numbers we are even willing to burn all the natural to the region have jumped from 14,300 in areas to finish this tourism craziness.”66 1980 to more than 63,000 today.68 Key players in the international commu- Areas that exclude local participation and nity are also pledging support for eco- use have seen rising incidences of poaching, tourism projects, often in alliance with local vandalism, and even armed conflict. or international businesses and NGOs. Since the mid-1980s, the U.S. Agency for Many local ecotourism initiatives have International Development has worked benefited from partnerships with outside with the private sector and conservation actors, including government agencies, the groups in more than a dozen countries, private sector, and nongovernmental orga- including Costa Rica, Jamaica, Madagascar, nizations (NGOs). One Virginia-based Sri Lanka, and Thailand—providing fund- nonprofit, the RARE Center for Tropical ing for new and existing parks, recruiting Conservation, has trained more than 200 and training park staff, and helping govern- nature guides in Costa Rica, Honduras, and ments promote regulated investments in Mexico in conversational English and local lodging, guide services, and other ventures. natural history, boosting individual incomes And since 1991 the Global Environment by 92 percent on average. And some pri- Facility, sponsored by the World Bank and vately owned tour operations support local the United Nations, has channeled more initiatives by donating a portion of their than $1 billion into some 400 biodiversity- profits to conservation. Since 1997, New related projects in the developing world, York-based Lindblad Expeditions has given many of which have significant ecotourism more than $500,000 in client donations components.69 from its Galapagos trips to scientific In the International Year of Ecotourism, research and environmental preservation however, it is important that any efforts to efforts in the archipelago.67 highlight ecotourism as the solution to Nepal’s Annapurna Conservation Area tourism’s problems be monitored carefully. Project (ACAP), launched in 1986 with Although the World Ecotourism Summit support from the World Wide Fund for scheduled for Quebec in May 2002 aims to Nature, is another example of a successful be a truly comprehensive effort, allowing all

116 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM stakeholders to voice their views and to tial ecological processes, biological diversity exchange information about ecotourism and life support systems.” Interest in mak- experiences worldwide, the event is also by ing tourism more sustainable has grown its very nature an opportunity for signifi- steadily over the past decade, particularly in cant tourism marketing and promotion. the wake of the 1992 U.N. conference in The heavy involvement of international Rio. Although tourism was hardly men- agencies, governments, and the private sec- tioned in that meeting’s blueprint for tor could distract attention from efforts to action, Agenda 21, countries have since develop more low-impact, locally run eco- adopted international declarations on a tourism activities, particularly in areas not wide range of related topics, including prepared to handle an onslaught of tourism and sustainable development, the tourists.70 social impact of tourism, tourism and biodi- As ecotourism increasingly comes into its versity, and tourism and ethics. In an own, it is clear that one of the biggest chal- important milestone, WTO, the World lenges is balancing the potential benefits Travel & Tourism Council, and the Earth with the pitfalls. Like other forms of tourism, Council drafted their own Agenda 21 for ecotourism can create its share of social and the Travel and Tourism Industry in 1996, environmental problems. The degree of outlining key steps for the industry, govern- impact ultimately depends on the quality of ments, and others.72 the enterprise, the level of guide training, Making tourism more sustainable and the behavior of tourists themselves. requires careful planning at all levels and the There is also a danger that too much involvement of all stakeholders—including emphasis on ecotourism could distract the local communities that will be directly attention from broader problems. By defin- affected by tourism’s presence. At its core, ition, ecotourism will always remain a niche however, tourism is a private-sector activity, form of travel, relevant only in the relative- driven in large part by international hotel ly few areas of the world that still possess chains, tour companies, and other business- valuable natural attractions. It can do little es. Sustainability will therefore require sys- to address the very real environmental temic change in how this industry operates. problems of rampant, mass tourism at more But reconciling the industry drive for more urban destinations, such as downtown tourists with the need for sustainable prac- Bangkok. As such, it should be viewed as tices will not necessarily be easy.73 just one possible solution in a range of Nevertheless, the tourism industry has strategies for more sustainable tourism taken many positive steps to become more development.71 environmentally and socially responsible. At least some of this change is a response to Toward a Sustainable growing consumer pressure for more envi- Tourism Industry ronment-friendly tourism products. A 1997 study by the Travel Industry Association of According to the WTO, sustainable tourism America reports that some 83 percent of should lead to the “management of all the public supported green travel services, resources in such a way that economic, and that people were willing to spend 6 per- social and aesthetic needs can be fulfilled cent more on average for travel services and while maintaining cultural integrity, essen- products provided by environmentally

117 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM responsible companies. In a similar survey ronmentally and socially responsible busi- in the United Kingdom, more than half the ness practice. Founded in 1992, IHEI now interviewees said that when planning vaca- represents some 11,200 hotels in 111 tions or business trips, they would find it countries, including international chains important to deal with a company that takes such as Hilton, Marriott, Radisson SAS, Taj environmental issues into account.74 Group, Scandic, and Forte. Many hotels are Arguably, the bulk of the change in the embracing a wide range of environmental tourism industry is being driven by financial and cost-saving actions, from installing self-interest rather than genuine environ- energy-efficient lighting and appliances to mental concern. Perhaps more than any purchasing biodegradable housekeeping other industry, tourism depends on a clean supplies. (See Table 5–2.)77 environment. Declines in environmental The cruise industry, too, is making an quality can hit industry pocketbooks direct- effort to integrate environmental practices ly. On the other hand, helping to make des- into its activities, though much remains to tinations more attractive and supporting be done. Some companies are embracing more environmentally sensitive practices can relatively simple initiatives such as recycling boost the profits of tourism businesses.75 plasticware and using recyclable and Many of the world’s larger tourism com- reusable containers. Others, like Holland panies, from hotels to tour operators, are America and Princess Cruises, are outfitting taking formal steps to restructure their newer vessels with on-board water treatment management and operations along environ- plants, incinerators, or cogeneration inciner- mental lines—including reducing consump- ators that harness energy from waste burn- tion of water, energy, and other resources ing. And in a significant step, in June 2001 and improving the management, handling, the International Council of Cruise Lines, a and disposal of waste. Changes in the hotel powerful industry lobbying group that rep- industry can be particularly fruitful, not resents the world’s 16 biggest cruise lines, only because these facilities consume large adopted new mandatory waste management quantities of resources but also because standards for its members. Companies risk they can have enormous influence over the losing their membership if they fail to abide broader habits and practices of their guests, by the guidelines, which include new rules employees, and suppliers. A simple step for the disposal of wastewater, used batter- such as outfitting rooms with cards that ies, and photo processing and dry cleaning encourage guests to reuse linens and towels chemicals. They also call on members to when they are staying more than one night strengthen compliance with domestic and can conserve on average 114 liters (30 gal- international environmental laws.78 lons) of water per room each day, plus ener- Tour operators and travel agents can play gy—at a daily cost savings of at least $1.50 a big part in redirecting tourism because per room.76 they determine not only where tourists go, Spearheading this movement at the but also which services they use. Many tour global level is the London-based Interna- companies are setting up professional guide tional Hotels Environment Initiative accreditation programs and investing in (IHEI), which works with hotels, hotel extensive training to ensure that their associations, suppliers, tourist boards, gov- guides adhere to sound practices. And ernments, and NGOs to encourage envi- recently, some 24 of the world’s larger tour

118 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM companies signed on to a new voluntary the smaller tour operations, accommoda- Tour Operators’ Initiative, sponsored by tions, and services that many of the world’s UNEP, UNESCO, and WTO. Members tourists use. Indeed, a survey in Australia’s have agreed to integrate sustainability con- Gold Coast region found that while energy cerns into their operational management and water conservation measures were as and tour designs and to share and imple- common in 3- and 4-star hotels as in 5-star ment best practices.79 ones, they were rarely adopted in 1- or 2- Yet this and many other high-level sus- star accommodations. Larger businesses, tainability efforts fail to reach the bulk of donors, and lenders can help accelerate the

Table 5–2. Hotel “Greening” Success Stories

Hotel or Hotel Chain “Greening” Initiative

Hilton International In recent years, has saved 60 percent on gas costs and 30 percent on both electricity and water costs, while cutting wastes by 25 percent. Vienna Hilton and Vienna Plaza reduced laundry loads by 164,000 kilograms per year, minimizing water and chemical use. Singapore Marriott Water conservation efforts save some 40,000 cubic meters of water per and Tang Plaza year—a reduction of nearly 20 percent. Scandic Has reduced water use by 20 percent per guest in recent years. Has also pioneered a 97-percent recyclable hotel room and is building or retrofitting 1,500 of these annually. Sheraton Rittenhouse Boasts a 93-percent recycled granite floor, organic cotton bedding, night Square, Philadelphia tables made from discarded wooden shipping pallets, naturally dyed recycled carpeting, and nontoxic wallpaper, carpeting, drapes, and cleaning products. The extra 2 percent investment more than paid for itself in the first six months. Inter-Continental Hotels Hotels must implement a checklist of 134 environmental actions and meet and Resorts specific energy, waste, and water management targets. Between 1988 and 1995, the chain reduced overall energy costs by 27 percent. In 1995, it saved $3.7 million, reducing sulfur dioxide emissions by 10,670 kilograms, and saved 610,866 cubic meters of water—an average water reduction of nearly 7 percent per hotel, despite higher occupancies. Forte Brighouse, A transition to energy-efficient lamps reduced energy use by 45 percent, West Yorkshire, cut maintenance by 85 percent, and lowered carbon emissions by 135 tons. United Kingdom The move paid for itself in savings in less than a year. Hyatt International In the United States, energy efficiency measures cut energy use by 15 percent and now save the chain an estimated $15 million annually. Holiday Inn Crowne Plaza, By offering guests the option of not changing their linens and towels each Schiphol Airport, day, the hotel reduced laundry volume, water, and detergent, as well as Netherlands costs, by 20 percent.

SOURCE: See endnote 77.

119 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM wider adoption of these practices by trans- the certification standards, others are based ferring environmentally sound management on self-evaluation or paid membership, tools and technologies such as water-saving which may simply allow companies to and renewable energy systems. Banks and “buy” their way to a green label. Ultimate- insurance companies could incorporate ly, the success of tourism certification will environmental and social criteria into depend on whether it can set a trusted, reli- assessment procedures for loans, invest- able standard, and on the degree to which ments, and insurance, using green auditing the industry and consumers embrace it measures to monitor progress.80 worldwide.83 In addition to structural changes in man- As the changing rules of the global econ- agement and operations, tourism businesses omy further open markets to tourism devel- of all sizes and types are embracing a wide opment, governments, international range of less formal voluntary initiatives to institutions, NGOs, and tourists themselves regulate their impacts, with mixed success. will need to play a more active role in keep- Forty-six of Antarctica’s main tour opera- ing sustainable tourism on track. But this tors, for instance, now belong to the Inter- will not be easy. Tourism’s rapid growth has national Association of Antarctic Tour been facilitated in large part by an absence Operators, a voluntary body formed in of outside interference; like most industries, 1991 that enforces a strict code of conduct the tourism industry opposes intervention for tour operators and their clients. But that it perceives as damaging to competi- despite regulations that include landing no tiveness and profits. Moreover, all signs more than 100 people per site at a time and indicate that instead of tightening regula- making sure visitors do not disturb wildlife, tions, governments are granting ever tourists still pick up penguins, approach greater leeway to private actors.84 seals, and drive birds from their nests.81 The industry-sponsored Agenda 21 for Tourism businesses are also participating the Travel and Tourism Industry, for in voluntary certification schemes that grant instance, places significant emphasis on self- a seal of approval to companies or destina- regulation while continuing to uphold the tions that demonstrate environmentally or dominant role of open and competitive mar- socially sound practice. (See Table 5–3.) kets, privatization, and deregulation in Not only do these labels serve as useful spurring tourism’s growth. It makes little marketing tools, but they can spur the mention of direct government oversight or tourism industry to develop more environ- international instruments such as tourism mentally friendly products as well as pro- taxes. Moreover, while many industry efforts vide consumers with information about embrace a shift toward environmental sus- more sustainable travel choices.82 tainability, they are less willing to incorporate Unfortunately, more than 100 compet- social and cultural needs, including addressing tourism certification schemes exist ing labor and employment issues, protecting worldwide, and there are as yet no interna- cultures, and maximizing linkages with local tional guidelines to help travelers differenti- economies and communities.85 ate their value or effectiveness. Though One way governments can help redirect many of these schemes are being developed tourism is by developing regulatory and in partnership with government agencies or policy frameworks that support key envi- NGOs that independently issue or monitor ronmental and social goals without stifling

120 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM incentives for investment. Planning author- tourism Strategy, which recognizes the ities at the national, regional, and local lev- need for “responsible tourism planning and els can work to better integrate tourism into management to protect the country’s nat- overall strategies for sustainable develop- ural and cultural heritage,” is a good ment. Australia’s 1992 National Eco- model. Belize and Costa Rica also have

Table 5–3. Selected Tourism Certiﬁcation Efforts Worldwide

Scheme Scope Description

Green Globe 21 Has awarded logos to Rewards efforts to incorporate social responsibility some 500 companies and Agenda 21 principles into business programs. But and destinations in more may confuse tourists by rewarding not only businesses than 100 countries. that have achieved certification, but also those that have simply committed to undertake the process. ECOTEL® Has certified 23 hotels in Assigns hotels zero to five globes based on Latin America, 7 in the environmental commitment, waste management, United States and Mexico, energy efficiency, water conservation, environmental 5 in Japan, and 1 in India. education, and community involvement. Hotels must be reinspected every two years, and unannounced inspections can occur at anytime. A project of the industry consulting group HVS International. European Blue Includes more than Awards a yearly ecolabel to beaches and marinas Flag Campaign 2,750 sites in 21 for their high environmental standards and sanitary European countries; being and safe facilities. Credited with improving the adopted in South Africa quality and desirability of European coastal sites. Run and the Caribbean. by the international nonprofit Foundation for Envi- ronmental Education. Certification for Has certified some 54 Gives hotels a ranking of one to five based on for Sustainable hotels since 1997. environmental and social criteria. Credited with Tourism, raising environmental awareness among tourism Costa Rica businesses and tourists. But the rating is skewed toward large hotels that may be too big to really be sustainable. SmartVoyager, Since 1999, has certified Gives a special seal to tour operators and boats Galapagos, Ecuador 5 of more than 80 ships that voluntarily comply with specified benchmarks that operate in the area. for boat and dinghy maintenance and operation, dock operations, and management of wastewater and fuels. A joint project of the Rainforest Alliance and a local conservation group. Green Leaf,Thailand Had certified 59 hotels Awards hotels between one and five “green leaves” as of October 2000. based on audits of their environmental policies and other measures. Aims to improve efficiency and raise awareness within the domestic hotel industry.

SOURCE: See endnote 82.

121 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

national policies or strategies to promote ing Belize, Indonesia, Namibia, and Nepal, ecotourism.86 have begun to incorporate small-scale, Many countries do not yet have such community-based initiatives into national broad plans, however. And those that do tourism efforts.88 typically fail to address social or environ- To help get more-responsible tourism mental sustainability. Viet Nam’s Tourism off the ground, governments will need poli- Master Plan, for instance, aims to attract cies and regulations that boost domestic large-scale investment primarily through land and resource ownership, facilitate local joint ventures between foreign corporations market access, and sanction exploitative and state enterprises, but it does little to businesses. Tourism agencies and other support small-scale entrepreneurs or pro- local government bodies can provide low- tect ethnic minorities from exploitation by cost licensing as well as training in lan- external operators. In general, because guages, small business development, and tourism activities cut across a variety of gov- marketing, and can offer incentives like tax ernment departments and industry groups, breaks, special interest rates, or microenter- it is often difficult for authorities to coordi- prise loans. They can also encourage exter- nate a unified plan of action for addressing nally owned businesses to reinvest their the impacts.87 profits at the destination, in order to help support local agriculture and construction, In Namibia, local communities can fund area conservation efforts, and train assume legal responsibility for zoning and hire local staff. Strict government regu- their own agriculture, wildlife, and lations can stifle exploitative practices such tourism activities in multiuse areas. as sex tourism or child labor. A new Nepalese law, for instance, prohibits chil- To ensure greater benefits for local com- dren under the age of 14 from working in munities and the environment, govern- trekking, rafting, casinos, and other ments will need to balance large-scale tourism-related jobs—though critics charge investments in hotels, restaurants, and that enforcement is weak.89 other facilities with smaller-scale initiatives National and regional land use planning that are actively planned and managed by that considers the diverse needs of local res- local communities, such as family-run idents, tourists, and other users, as well as lodges or informal craft cooperatives. Local of the environment, is an important ele- participation not only brings residents ment of a sustainable tourism strategy. It greater job satisfaction, it gives them gives tourism authorities greater say over greater responsibility for an initiative’s out- whether development occurs in an environ- come and makes them more likely to take a mentally or culturally sensitive area or in a longer-term view toward conserving their controlled manner. A new government plan local environment and resources. At the in Spain’s Balearic Islands, for example, same time, smaller-scale tourism growth oversees the careful zoning of certain areas tends to be slower and more controlled, for facilities like hotels, green areas, sanitary and can help offset tourism’s negative envi- services, and parking. In Denmark, Egypt, ronmental and cultural impacts by allowing France, and Spain, laws forbid developers more gradual integration of new activities from building within a defined distance into communities. Many countries, includ- from the coast in order to prevent beach

122 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM erosion. And at Cuba’s Cayo Coco, where the country’s Pasachoa Park closes for a full hotels must have no more than four stories month each year to allow for environmental and be set back from the beach, each new restoration.92 building must go through an extensive gov- In addition to regulations, governments ernment environmental impact assessment are using economic instruments to encour- before construction is approved.90 age responsible tourism. These include Another country receiving accolades for charging user fees, offering grants that its efforts to integrate social and environ- reward “good practice” in tourism, and mental variables into land-use planning is levying ecotaxes on everything from accom- Namibia. Under a bold government plan modations to air and marine transport. In developed in the early 1990s, local commu- 1995, for example, France taxed marine nities can assume legal responsibility for public transport to several protected islands zoning their own agriculture, wildlife, and to raise additional funds for their manage- tourism activities in multiuse areas known ment and protection. By more accurately as conservancies, and then derive direct pricing tourism services, governments can financial benefits from these. As of early push tourists and the industry to pay a fair- 2001, 13 communities had registered con- er share in maintaining tourism assets.93 servancies, while another 20–24 were under Yet such levies are often highly controver- development—bringing large tracts of the sial because businesses fear they will deter country under local tourism management. tourists. Local businesses in Spain’s Balearic A national association for community-based Islands are fighting the regional govern- tourism, started in 1995, provides advice ment’s April 2001 decision to charge and training to these communities and tourists up to $1.78 extra per night at helps them to market their lodges and other accommodations, even though the money ventures at international travel fairs and would pay for improving tourist areas and other promotional events.91 managing natural spaces against environ- Elsewhere, governments are mitigating mental damage. A similar effort by the Indi- tourism’s impacts by restricting the actual an Ocean island of Seychelles to introduce a number of visitors allowed at a natural area $90 ecotax on all foreign visitors fell or cultural site—though determining the through in 1998. And a proposed $50 per appropriate level of use is often difficult. head passenger tax on Caribbean cruises was The Peruvian government recently decreed reportedly dropped in the early 1990s after that up to 500 people a day can hike to threats from U.S. cruise lines. Indeed, rather Machu Picchu (down from as many as than levying taxes, many governments 1,000), in addition to more than tripling instead offer tax holidays, loans, and other the fee and requiring tourists to trek with a incentives to attract tourism investors.94 registered company. On a larger scale, the Governments can also take action at the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan practices an international level by supporting the imple- official policy of “high-value, low-volume” mentation of environmental treaties that tourism and accepted only 7,500 visitors in relate to tourism, such as the climate all of 2000, at a cost of $250 each per day. change and biodiversity conventions. They Elsewhere, natural areas are being roped off can work to ensure that international trade completely: visitors to Ecuador’s Galapagos agreements like GATS and TRIMS do not Islands are restricted to only 18 sites, while undermine domestic environmental and

123 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

labor regulations or compromise broader mental actors—including citizen groups, development goals. grassroots activists, and tourists them- Unfortunately, many governments do selves—have generated much of the pres- not have the capacity to take on a greater sure for more sustainable tourism. Notably, oversight or regulatory role. Fiscal and it is a citizens’ coalition, and not the gov- planning instruments are often too weak to ernment or the industry, that is finally tak- influence the direction of tourism investing the initiative to deal with the waste ments effectively, while local authorities problems at India’s Kovalam beach. In Feb- may have only limited enforcement or other ruary 2001, activists with a local environ- power. Many governments are relying on mental group (Thanal), with support from outside groups for additional support. Greenpeace India, launched Zero Waste International lending institutions like the Kovalam—a project that aims to convert World Bank and the Asian Development the village into a zero-waste community by Bank (ADB), for instance, have stepped up incorporating strategies of reduction, recy- their funding for sustainable tourism and cling, and reuse into the various waste related infrastructure improvements. In streams. If the initiative wins industry and 2001, the ADB approved a $2.2-million government backing, it may be a model for loan to improve solid waste infrastructure similar efforts across India.97 and management in the Cook Islands— Local communities and international though more could be done to funnel this activist groups are having similar success support to smaller-scale initiatives as well.95 combating unsustainable tourism developments elsewhere, though this remains an Tourists themselves have a growing uphill battle. In April 2001, these groups responsibility to understand the environ- played a big role in convincing the Mexican mental and social impacts of their travel. government to revoke permits for five hotel companies to build resorts, golf courses, Other international institutions are work- and other facilities at X’cacel, a 165-hectare ing to create benchmarks for sustainable stretch of beach south of Cancun that is tourism that will make it easier for govern- home to 40 protected species and a key ments and businesses to measure progress. nesting site for endangered Atlantic sea tur- WTO has tested nine core indicators to tles. And the U.K.-based lobbying group assess the health of tourist destinations and Tourism Concern has successfully persuad- developed a hotel audit program to help ed many tour operators to stop advertising owners of smaller hotels become more envi- Myanmar (formerly Burma) as a destination ronmentally responsible. And the Interna- in protest against that country’s human tional Maritime Organization oversees and rights violations.98 enforces international standards on shipping Tourists themselves also have a growing and other maritime activities, including responsibility to understand the environ- those affecting cruise ships. There is growing mental and social impacts of their travel. concern, however, that the industry prefer- Industry groups and NGOs can help ence for voluntary self-regulation could promote more sustainable behavior undermine efforts to set more stringent stan- through public awareness campaigns and dards for tourism at the global level.96 tourist training. Tourism Concern, for Over the past few decades, nongovern- example, has produced five in-flight videos

124 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM warning tourists about the crime of child seek to stay in lower-impact lodging, follow sex tourism, and the World Travel & visitor rules and regulations, buy local food Tourism Council has a video series on and crafts, and not purchase souvenirs made tourism’s environmental impact aimed at from endangered animals. They can mini- airlines and schools. The relatively low mize cultural disruption by learning about visibility of these initiatives suggests, how- local customs, language, or conventions; ever, that much remains to be done to asking before taking a photograph or enter- boost tourism education.99 ing sacred spaces; supporting local perform- Before departing for trips, tourists can ers or craftspeople; and generally respecting research whether companies are environ- the rights and privacy of others.101 mentally and culturally sensitive, hire local Ultimately, sustainable tourism means staff, or give a portion of their proﬁts to traveling with an awareness of our larger local communities or conservation efforts. impact on Earth. This is something that The International Ecotourism Society’s everyone will need to remember—from “Your Travel Choice Makes a Difference” governments promoting tourism to tourism campaign helps travelers select responsible businesses and tourists themselves. Togeth- tour operators and guides and encourages er, these groups will need to balance the them to buy and stay locally. And on its ultimate goal of satisfying tourist demand travel Web site, Conservation International with key environmental and social objec- selectively advertises tours that beneﬁt local tives, such as reducing resource consump- conservation efforts.100 tion, eliminating poverty, and preserving Once at their destinations, tourists can cultural and biological diversity.

125 State of the World 2002 REDIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

WORLD SUMMIT PRIORITIES ON INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

For Industry ➣ Incorporate environmental management principles that minimize both resource use and waste. ➣ Develop environmental and social “codes of conduct” for staff and clients. ➣ Adopt environmental and social standards set by international organizations and other certiﬁ- cation bodies. ➣ Engage in efforts that protect and enhance local environments, communities, and cultures. For Governments ➣ Create an overall tourism strategy that incorporates key economic, social, and environmental goals. ➣ Include responsible tourism development in overall land use planning strategies. ➣ Develop regulations and policies that support smaller-scale, locally run tourism development. ➣ Implement taxes, entry fees, and other economic tools that reﬂect the true costs of tourism services. For International Institutions and NGOs ➣ Develop environmental and social standards that encourage responsible tourism development. ➣ Raise government, industry, and public awareness of the impacts of tourism. ➣ Help travellers select businesses that invest in local communities and that try to minimize environmental and cultural impacts.

126 Chapter 6

Rethinking Population, Improving Lives Robert Engelman, Brian Halweil, and Danielle Nierenberg

Sitting in a dark hut in central Mali, a population growth would slow even more teenager named Djenaba nursed a baby— rapidly than it is today. This slowdown is her second—and said that if she could, she occurring as ideas about childbearing would wait at least three years to have the change and as access to contraception next one. The truth, she added, was that improves around the world. Indeed, had she would prefer to have few children average family size not declined from the because “it’s too hard [to support a large level in 1960 and had death rates stayed the family]; we don’t have any wealth in the vil- same, more than 8 billion people would be lage.” But she said she knew she was pow- alive today instead of 6.2 billion. If the erless to put either of these wishes into decline continues, the growth of world effect, because no health clinic was within population could conceivably end before walking distance, and even the faraway ones the middle of this century. Already, most rarely had contraceptives to offer. Survey families in wealthy countries are small research suggests Djenaba is not alone, and enough to reverse population growth even- that nearly two out of every five women tually, and in a few countries population is who learn they are pregnant wish they had actually decreasing.2 waited at least a couple of years before giv- But in the 48 least-developed countries in ing birth again, if at all.1 the world, population is projected to triple Clearly, if all pregnancies could be the by 2050. And in many more nations the happy outcomes of women and men mak- population could double. Three billion peo- ing earnest commitments to be parents, ple are under the age of 25, with all or most of their reproductive years ahead of them— Coauthor Robert Engelman is Vice President for and without much guidance or help on Research with Population Action International. This chapter is dedicated to John McBride and Kate healthy sexuality and reproduction. There McBride-Puckett. can be no guarantees of a peak in world pop- State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES ulation this century without major commit- to have sex and whether to use contracep- ments from governments to provide family tion. Luckily, in many places this is chang- planning and related services to those who ing. “Increasingly, men—and especially seek them, and such commitments are any- younger men—see the opportunity for thing but certain.3 egalitarian relationships between men and There is more to population and the women as a boon,” family expert Perdita policies that surround it, however, than Huston has suggested, “a fortunate trend numbers and distribution of people. that may allow them to become more Demographers, social scientists, and politi- involved in family life and less beholden to cians increasingly see the connections of strict and restrictive gender roles.” Any human numbers to behavior, to relation- father who spends more time with his child ships, to overall health care, and—especial- than his own father did with him can appre- ly—to the circumstances and status of ciate the truth of that statement.5 women. Evolving from decades of demo- Anyone who seeks to fathom the future graphic research and field experience, “pop- interaction between humans and the natur- ulation” as a concept and a professional al world must consider population change discipline now embraces a diversity of as a dominant force on the human side of efforts to improve the health, livelihoods, that relationship. But any discussion of and capacities of women at each stage of “population” is increasingly understood to their lives. include or at least touch on a host of relat- The concept of reproductive health has ed issues, including the coexistence of also evolved to encompass much more than extravagant consumption and degrading planning and preventing pregnancy; it poverty and the inability of many govern- includes sex education, access to contracep- ments to meet the basic needs of their peo- tives, sexually transmitted diseases, infertili- ple for health care, education, clean water, ty, and all matters relating to the energy, and shelter. reproductive system. The United Nations In considering the links between popula- defines it as “a state of complete physical, tion and environmental change, a near revo- mental and social well-being ...in all matters lution in thinking has occurred—much of related to the reproductive system, and its it since the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro functions and processes. Reproductive in 1992. It is increasingly clear that the health therefore implies that people are able long-term future of environmental and to have a satisfying and safe sex life and they human health—and, critically, population— have the capability to reproduce and the is bound up in the rights and capacities of freedom to decide if, when and how often the young, especially young women, to con- to do so.”4 trol their own lives and destinies. (See Box Providing education and health services 6–1.) What remains unclear is whether polit- for girls and women can hardly address all ical leaders today, still mostly men, will see needs, however, until boys and men are the potential for positive change that lies in engaged in efforts to improve unequal gen- recognizing and responding to the rights der relations. The population and repro- and needs of women and children. Societies ductive health fields have traditionally in rich nations and poor need a new kind of focused on women, even though men have vision to cure the widespread gender myopia historically exerted more control over when that refuses to acknowledge the long-term

128 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES

implications of current relations between BOX 6–1. THE CHANGING FACE OF women and men and to see the critical role POPULATION AND WOMEN AT U.N. of gender in human development.6 CONFERENCES The World by Numbers At international conferences throughout the 1990s, from Rio de Janeiro to Vienna Throughout most of human history, par- and from Cairo to Beijing, women’s health ents had on average roughly two children and human rights slowly but steadily made who themselves survived to become par- their way onto the international agenda. ents. We know this not by demographic Thanks in large part to the involvement of surveys but by the simple observation that women themselves, often acting together human population grew very slowly until in nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) relatively recently. The key word here is sur- and coalitions, women are less likely to be vived. Women undoubtedly had many seen as passive recipients of population babies, although some women practiced programs but instead as full participants in herbal and other means of contraception. a world where all people, including the young, are free to express their sexuality But until recently, death rates among freely, safely, and responsibly. infants and children were so high that pop- At the United Nations Conference on ulation growth was episodic and localized Environment and Development (also rather than consistent and global.7 known as the Earth Summit) in Rio in With the advent of better nutrition and 1992, women’s groups from developing as basic public health—hand washing, sanita- well as industrial countries lobbied for tion, immunization, and antibiotics— social change. Agenda 21, the plan of action enough people survived infancy and that emerged from the conference, called childhood by the nineteenth and twentieth for women’s “full participation” in sustain- centuries to boost population growth to able development; improvement in unprecedented rates. What had been a bil- women’s status, access to education, and income; and attention to the needs of lion people around 1800 became 1.6 billion women as well as men for access to repro- in 1900, 2.5 billion by 1950, and then 6.1 ductive health services, including family billion by 2000. (See Figure 6–1.) Some- planning “education, information and time in the 1960s the global rate of popula- means.” This set the stage for the Interna- tion growth peaked and began to tional Conference on Population and decline—from 2.1 percent a year to just Development (ICPD) in Cairo in 1994, under 1.3 percent today—although the still- where the Programme of Action afﬁrmed growing population base meant that annual that reproductive and sexual health is a additions to human numbers continued basic human right. A year later in Beijing, increasing until recently. Even today, the the Fourth World Conference on Women planet adds about 77 million people each reafﬁrmed women’s rights and their equal 8 participation in all spheres of society as a year, the equivalent of 10 New York Cities. prerequisite for human development. The direct cause of slowing population growth was that women began having SOURCE: See endnote 6. fewer children on average as infant mortality rates declined and as modern means of contraception became available—and

129 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES

Billion 8 the current population of Nigeria of Source: Engelman, UN about 120 million, for example, is expected to grow to between 237 mil- 6 lion and 325 million by mid-century. The number of people living on the 4 entire continent of Africa is projected to more than double—from 800 million to between 1.7 billion and 2.3 bil- 2 lion—over the same period. South Central Asia (including India, Pakistan, 0 Bangladesh, and Afghanistan) could 01 400 800 1200 1600 2000 more than double its current population of 1.5 billion.10 Figure 6–1.World Population Since A.D.1 The stark differences between wealthy and poor nations in population increasingly attractive—in most countries. trends create the conditions for an This demographic revolution, however, has increased flow of people across internation- developed unevenly around the world. In al borders in coming decades. An estimated much of Europe and in Japan, use of birth 150 million people—3 out of every 100 control rose so rapidly from the 1970s people on the planet—live outside their through the 1990s that fertility fell well countries of birth. Between 1985 and below the 2.1 average of children per 1990, the population of international woman needed to replace those who die migrants grew about 50 percent faster than with those who are born; eventually, con- world population as a whole, and given the tinuation of such low fertility will end pop- greater migration of the 1990s and the ulation growth in these nations. Countries slowdown in world population growth, it is such as Italy, Spain, Armenia, the Ukraine, likely that the gap has grown much wider. and Russia now have fertility rates so low In the late 1980s, most migration was from that some analysts are concerned about one developing country to another, but in how the nations will adjust to having many the future the South-to-North axis could fewer working-age people available to sup- dominate migration. (See Box 6–2.)11 port the elderly in their aging populations. The United Nations Population Division Others have countered that such trends are currently projects that today’s world popu- simply the byproduct of the combination of lation of 6.2 billion will grow to anywhere longer life spans and lower birth rates and from 7.9 billion to 10.9 billion by 2050. that changes in tax, social security, and Global population by mid-century is immigration policies can ease the transition projected to be overwhelmingly urban, to new population sizes and structures.9 more tropical, and significantly older than it For most of the world, however, popula- is today.12 tion decline is anything but imminent. Despite this growth, the overwhelming Average national fertility rates are at influence on human population today is the replacement level or higher in more than fulfillment of parental intentions to have two thirds of the world’s nations. Even with later pregnancies and smaller families. In reasonably anticipated declines in fertility, 1960, women had five children on average

130 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES worldwide, and more than six in developing tors of a demographic revolution that con- countries. By 2000, these numbers had fall- tinues today.13 en by roughly half, in part because contra- Demographers and population policy ceptive usage multiplied sixfold—from 10 analysts increasingly recognize the health percent of couples worldwide in 1960 to 60 and circumstances of women to be among percent in 2000. These changes are indica- the greatest determinants of how many

BOX 6–2. MIGRATION’S CONTINUING ROLE

In June 2000, 58 illegal Chinese immigrants en the wake of the terrorist attacks on the World route to England through Belgium were packed Trade Center and the Pentagon in 2001. On into a nearly airless truck carrying a shipment the one hand, employers and national of tomatoes. Only four survived the 18-hour economies benefit from the generally inexpen- journey. The next summer, immigration agents sive labor that immigrants offer. Societies ben- patrolling the U. S.-Mexico border found the efit from cultural diversity unknown to bodies of 14 Mexicans dead from dehydration. previous generations. On the other hand, The effort to cross into the United States kills migrants make convenient targets for those more than 350 illegal migrants each year. Since unhappy about the accelerating pace of change, migration generally involves great personal risk increasing congestion, or the unevenness of and expense, given the choice most people economic growth. In the United States, new would rather stay where they are—close to fears about terrorism may add to this tension. family, familiar places, and others who speak Pressures to migrate and opposition to their language. But the larger the gap between continued immigration are both likely to people’s current quality of life and that which mount as population density increases and the they believe they can attain in a new land, the availability of critical natural resources decreas- more motivation they have to leave. es. Ultimately, each nation must decide how Among the nations that send the most many people to welcome and under what cir- migrants are China and India. Every year more cumstances. Some nations, cities, and communi- than 400,000 Chinese leave for other countries ties—especially those without adequate and 50,000 Indians migrate to the United renewable water supplies—may take measures States,Australia, the United Kingdom, and to discourage further in-migration. Canada. Refugees—migrants forced from their Since migration is approaching or even sur- homes by armed conflict or political passing the number of births as a driver of upheaval—often have little choice but to cross population growth in many places, nations may borders. As this chapter was being written, it ultimately learn to address migration in the appeared that more than 1.5 million Afghans— context of overall population policy, rather in addition to the 2.5 million already displaced than in response to concerns about the demo- by two decades of conflict—could cross into graphic weight of particular ethnic or language neighboring countries as a result of U. S. retali- groups. The diversity that migration has con- ation against terrorists in the region. tributed to the world’s nations, especially the In North America and Western Europe, the wealthy ones, is unlikely to recede for many two regions of the world that receive the most decades to come. migrants, migration has become a controversial and deeply sensitive topic, all the more so in SOURCE: See endnote 11.

131 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES children parents have. When women’s edu- confidence to participate fully in communi- cation, opportunities, capacity, and status ty affairs, and the ability to one day become begin to approach those of men, their eco- educated mothers who pass on their knowl- nomic and health conditions improve. edge to their own daughters and sons.16 Moreover, assuming good access to family Unfortunately, despite some halting planning services, they have fewer children progress in international and government on average, and those they have arrive later commitments to support women’s rights, in the mothers’ lives. An estimated 125 mil- women are still much less likely than men to lion women worldwide do not want to be complete secondary school—or to hold a pregnant but, like Djenaba in Mali, are not paying job or sit in a legislature or parlia- using any type of contraception. Millions ment. (See Table 6–1.) In 1995, an esti- more women—survey research has not pro- mated 75 million fewer girls than boys were duced a precise number—would like to enrolled in primary and secondary schools, avoid pregnancy despite their sexual activity and in all nations women still earn only two but are using contraception improperly, in thirds to three fourths of what men earn for many cases because of misinformation comparable work.17 about what would be the best method for It is difficult to predict how quickly these them. Overall, the U.N. Population Fund less-often-discussed human numbers will estimates, 350 million women worldwide change for the better. Until they improve lack any access to family planning services.14 significantly, however, women around the A major contributor to later pregnancies world will be less able to choose to have and lower fertility is at least six or seven smaller families. years of schooling. When girls manage to stay in school this long, what they learn The Ecology of Population about basic health, sexuality, and their own prospects in the world tends to encourage Whether considering biodiversity or crop- them to marry and become pregnant later land and forests, the number of people on in life and to have smaller families. In Earth combines with levels of consumption, Egypt, for example, only 5 percent of dominant technologies, and distribution to women who stayed in school past the pri- determine humanity’s use of resources. (See mary level had children while still in their Table 6–2.) Consider the potential for pop- teens, while over half of women with no ulation growth to make the planet’s finite schooling became mothers while still supply of fresh water inadequate for human teenagers. In high-fertility countries, such needs. Human beings depend on less than as those in Africa, South Asia, and some one one-hundredth of 1 percent of the parts of Latin America, women who have world’s water; less than a third of this is some secondary school experience typically really usable (much of it falls as rain too far have two, three, or four children fewer in from human settlements or runs to the their lifetimes than otherwise similar ocean in floods), and more than half of the women who have never been to school.15 usable portion is already being tapped for Educating girls and women also gives human purposes.18 them higher hopes for themselves—includ- Hydrologists categorize countries with ing raised self-esteem, greater decisionmak- less than 1,000 cubic meters of renewable ing power within the family, more water per person a year as water-scarce,

132 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES

Table 6–1. Gender Disparity in Various Spheres

Sphere Description of Disparity

Education Two thirds of the world’s 876 million illiterate people are female. In 22 African and 9 Asian nations, school enrollment for girls is less than 80 percent that for boys, and only 52 percent of girls in the least developed nations stay in school after grade 4. In sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia—where access to higher education is difﬁcult for both women and men—only between 2 and 7 women per 1,000 attend high school and college. Economics In most regions, women-headed households are much more vulnerable to poverty than male-headed ones. Single-mother households in the United States have 18 percent of Ameri- can children but one third of the children living in poverty. Throughout most of the world women earn on average two thirds to three fourths as much as men. Women’s “invisible” work (such as housekeeping and child care) is rarely included in economic accounting, although it has been valued at about one third of the world’s economic production. Women account for 5 percent of the most senior staff of the 500 largest corporations in the United States. At the International Monetary Fund, 11 percent of the economists are women, and women occupy just 15 percent of managerial positions. Politics Women’s representation continues to increase in all nations, but women are still vastly underrepresented at all levels of government as well as in international institutions. Of 190 heads of state and heads of government, only 10 are female. At the United Nations, women made up only 21 percent of senior management in 1999. While Nordic nations have the highest percentage of women in parliament, with 39 percent of seats in the lower and upper houses held by female representatives, women hold just 15 percent of parliamentary seats in the Americas and a scant 4 percent in Arab states. Only in nine countries is the proportion of women in the national parliament at 30 percent or above. In mid-2001, at least seven countries—Djibouti, Jordan, Kuwait, Palau,Tonga,Tuvalu, and Vanuatu—did not have a single woman in their legislatures. Civic In nations as diverse as Botswana, Chile, Namibia, and Swaziland, married women are under Freedom the permanent guardianship of their husbands and have no right to manage property (women’s rights for divorce are also widely constrained). Husbands in Bolivia, Guatemala, and Syria can restrict a wife’s choice to work outside the home. In some Arab nations, a wife must obtain her husband’s consent in order to get a passport.

SOURCE: See endnote 17. while those with 1,000–1,700 cubic meters ty of other natural resources.)19 are water-stressed. Any inequities in access History shows that few countries have occur on top of the limitations imposed by raised living standards successfully while basic availability. And the ﬁgures say noth- experiencing water scarcity. Sandra Postel of ing about the quality of the water provided, the Global Water Policy Project has found although as a general rule the scarcer water that as water availability drops into the becomes, the more likely it is to be pollut- stress and scarcity categories, the importa- ed due to the increasing pressure on each tion of food dramatically increases in most bucketful to serve human needs. (These countries. More than a quarter of all grain rules of thumb hold as well for the relation- imports, for example, go to water-stressed ship between population and the availabili- countries in the Middle East, Asia, and

133 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES

Table 6–2. Population and Selected Natural Resources

Resource Description

Fresh water Today 505 million people live in countries that are water-stressed or water-scarce; by 2025, that ﬁgure is expected to be between 2.4 billion and 3.4 billion people (near the equivalent of roughly half of today’s world population). Cropland In 1960 there was an average of 0.44 hectare for each human being on the planet; today there is less than one quarter of a hectare, a little more than a half-acre suburban lot. By the most conservative of benchmarks of arable land scarcity, nations need at least 0.07 hectare to be self-sufﬁcient in food.Today about 420 million people live with such little cropland; by 2025, that number could top 1 billion. Forests Today 1.8 billion people live in 40 countries with less than a tenth of a hectare of forested land for each person—roughly the size of a quarter-acre suburban lot. By 2025, this number could nearly triple, to 4.6 billion.Women and girls in developing countries will walk farther for fuelwood, and there will be less access for all to paper, which remains the currency of most of the world’s information. Biodiversity In 19 of the world’s 25 biodiversity hotspots, population is growing more rapidly than in the world as a whole. On average, population in the hotspots is growing at 1.8 percent each year, more than the global average.

SOURCE: See endnote 18.

Africa. In some cases in sub-Saharan Africa, or higher-quality water from taps. These good farmland may soon be unproductive pressures on water supplies hamper efforts simply because there is insufﬁcient renew- to reduce the numbers of people who lack able water to moisten crops and because access to safe water (currently about 1.1 bil- nonrenewable water sources are drying up.20 lion) and sanitation services (2.4 billion).21 Between 2.4 billion and 3.4 billion peo- The sorry state of the world’s freshwater ple are projected to be living in countries in supply and distribution services is directly water stress or scarcity by 2025, according responsible for an estimated 4 million to calculations by Population Action Inter- deaths annually, mostly of infants and national, compared with 505 million today. young children. Entire ways of life are dis- The people of the Middle East, of northern, appearing as water shortages alter land- eastern, and southern Africa, and of south- scapes and habitats. Most ominous of all, ern and western Asia will be especially vul- growing shortages of fresh water are lead- nerable. When water is scarce, the poor ing to tension along the many rivers—the tend to suffer—and pay—the most. In Nile, the Danube, the Tigris and Euphrates, urban areas where settlement has outpaced and the Ganges and Brahmaputra are the both freshwater availability and the infra- chief examples—shared by nations. Once structure needed to distribute water that is these rivers provided more than enough for safe to drink, the poor pay from 10 to 100 all, but under today’s economic and demo- times more for water brought in bottles by graphic conditions, development of water trucks than the wealthy pay to get the same resources by upstream countries reduces

134 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES levels downstream, which residents of those organisms that spread infections. One criti- countries can ill afford to lose. Given the cally important service that undisturbed needs of all human beings for water, not to ecosystems offer, according to Dr. Eric Chi- mention those of millions of other species vian at Harvard Medical School’s Center who inhabit land and freshwater bodies, for Health and the Global Environment, is eventually population growth will require maintaining equilibria among hosts, vec- reductions in per capita use of water and tors, and parasites and between predator better conservation practices.22 and prey. As people open up new swaths of Population is rarely mentioned in forests and consume the resources there, debates on a range of other environmental they are exposed to new infectious agents concerns, including climate change. capable of evolving into vectors of human Nonetheless, as world numbers continue to disease. Indeed, this is one plausible expla- grow, each person has less atmospheric nation for the emergence of HIV into space in which to dispose of carbon dioxide, human populations in the last few methane, and other heat-trapping gases. decades.24 Among the starkest examples of popula- For years economists have debated the tion’s impact on greenhouse gas emissions relationship between demographic and eco- is the United States—the nation with less nomic change without reaching any con- than 5 percent of world population but 25 sensus. This is in part because population percent of all greenhouse-gas emissions. Per growth operates in different ways in differ- capita U.S. emissions of carbon are fairly ent countries, and even at different points stable, but over the past decade the emis- of time, making it difficult to untangle sions total has grown apace with popula- cause and effect. Some government officials tion. The projected carbon emissions of the of developing countries are willing to assert 114 million people likely to be added to the that large and growing populations hamper U.S. population in the next 50 years rough- economic development. In the Philippines, ly equal the projected emissions of the 1.2 for example, economic planning secretary billion people who could be added to Africa Dante Canlas announced that the country’s during that period.23 new administration would act to slow pop- As these two examples of environmental ulation growth despite the opposition of linkages suggest, population dynamics cut the Catholic Church in the country. Noting across all environmental problems, and a the nation’s rapid population growth, Can- host of secondary impacts can themselves las expressed concern that “high fertility in affect human health and well-being. As the rural areas is exported into the urban people crowd into popular coastal areas, areas and rural poverty gets transformed earthquake-prone urban centers, and flood- into urban poverty.”25 plains, for instance, the damage to human Recent evidence suggests that under property and life done by storms, floods, some conditions, falling fertility and slower and earthquakes skyrockets. And epidemi- population growth can powerfully boost ologists increasingly see hints of the overar- some economies. A number of countries in ching impact of population growth on the East and Southeast Asia, for example, spread of infectious disease, as greater den- invested strongly in health—including sity boosts exposures and shortens trans- mother and child health care and family mission distance, making life easier for the planning services—in the 1970s, specifically

135 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES

hoping that smaller families would produce ratio of 39 to 1 in sub-Saharan Africa will economic and developmental dividends. balloon to 54 to 1 by 2040.27 These governments also committed them- Many of these demands converge in the selves to education and to helping growing mushrooming urban centers of the develop- industries that promised to be major ing world, which are projected to be home employers. The strategies worked. Having within a few decades to virtually all future fewer children meant that parents could population growth. Many of these cities invest more in their schooling and health. have doubled in population just over the And studies indicate that as average family past 12–15 years. One analysis found that size declines, savings increase, and house- young children in the largest cities of Latin hold savings are among the major sources America, North Africa, and Asia were less of internal investment in developing coun- likely than children in smaller cities to have tries. Harvard economists recently calculat- received health care or schooling and were ed that between 1965 and 1990, the more likely to be suffering from diarrhea slowing of population growth accounted because of a lack of clean drinking water, for as much as one third of the rapid growth safe food, and sanitation. And the most in per capita income in East Asian countries rapidly growing cities in Latin America and like South Korea and Taiwan.26 Africa suffered from the highest levels of infant and child mortality. Long-term popu- A stable or gradually declining population lation growth rates in excess of 5 percent a can be seen as a helpful side benefit of year raised the odds of infant mortality by 24 efforts that improve people’s lives directly. percent in North Africa and Asia, by 28 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, Rapid growth can put an enormous and by 42 percent in tropical Africa. In Mali, strain on governments and other institu- where Djenaba is struggling to raise her chil- tions. From schools and hospitals to low- dren and where both birth and death rates cost housing and waterworks, growing are among the highest in Africa, moving to numbers of people generate a larger the rapidly growing capital city of Bamako demand for public services—a demand that may no longer represent the improvement inefficient or heavy-handed governments in life chances it once did.28 often cannot meet. The rapid expansion of Bulges in young age groups may precip- school-age populations, for instance, puts itate social upheaval or international aggres- tremendous pressure on nations to train sion. Researchers at York University have more teachers and build more schools. This argued that most of the major wars and is especially worrisome because many of conflicts of the past few centuries have been these nations already lag in meeting educa- precipitated by nations in which young men tional needs. In sub-Saharan Africa—where predominated. A large cohort of young only 56 percent of people are literate and men does not make aggression inevitable, secondary education reaches only 4–5 per- but it can provide the tinder that despotic cent of the population—the number of leaders can spark for bellicose ambitions school-age children is projected to expand when grievances are acute. Along similar by over 30 percent in the next three lines, other researchers have argued that decades. Without additional investments in population-related scarcities of natural education, today’s average student-teacher resources can also provide fuel for conflict,

136 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES especially when the needs of dense and quences of high fertility rates and popula- rapidly growing populations strain weak tion growth. institutions.29 The capacity to plan, prevent, and postpone pregnancy is essential to reproductive Healthy Reproduction, health, reducing maternal and child deaths Healthy Families and setting the stage for women and men to manage their own sexuality and reproduc- In 1994, representatives from international tion. There is much more to this aspect of institutions, national governments, and health, however, than family planning NGOs gathered in Cairo at the Interna- alone. According to Jodi Jacobson of the tional Conference on Population and Center for Health and Gender Equity, in Development. They sketched a vision of a order to address unwanted fertility, world in which an end to population HIV/AIDS, and the whole range of growth is one of many outcomes of policies women’s reproductive needs and concerns, and programs that put individuals, especial- health care systems need to be sensitive to ly women and young people, in control of the realities women face on a daily basis. their own productive and reproductive Recent programs in India and South Africa lives. This was a breakthrough event, bring- are addressing that challenge by asking dif- ing to policymakers and the public an intel- ficult—but much needed—questions: Can lectual revolution that had been brewing women negotiate contraceptive use with a for years within the population and partner? And if not, how can services be tai- women’s health movements. The consensus lored that allow them to protect themselves among governments paved the way for a in secret?31 new people-centered—and ultimately much Young people in all regions of the world more effective—way to craft human devel- also face a variety of challenges related to opment and population policies.30 reproductive health, whether or not they Through the lens of Cairo, a stable or are sexually active at the moment. At the gradually declining population can be seen ICPD in 1994, and even more so at the as a helpful side benefit of efforts that conference’s five-year review in New York improve people’s lives directly. That is, in 1999, people in their teens and early greater access to health care and education twenties expressed their desire to be recog- not only yields personal and community nized and included in population and benefits, it also has the effect of reducing reproductive health policies and to be the size of families and raising the average agents of change for implementing those age of first pregnancy. When participants initiatives.32 from virtually all countries gathered in “Wait until you’re older” is hardly help- Cairo, they agreed to adopt precisely this ful advice for the millions of adolescents strategy for addressing population already having sex or preparing to enter change—framing population as an issue of into intimate relationships. Research in sev- people, especially their capacities and their eral countries has demonstrated that access rights, more than numbers. Such thinking to sound information and guidance on sex- went a long way toward reconciling ten- uality and reproduction helps young people sions among ecologists, demographers, and postpone sexual activity and avoid infection feminists regarding the causes and conse- and pregnancy when they do become sexu-

137 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES ally active. The young need adult guidance women. By one analysis, the influx of and support, as well as access to safe and women into U.S. medical, law, and other effective contraception and reproductive professional graduate schools in the 1970s health services, in order to protect them- was in large part a product of widespread selves from violence, unplanned pregnan- availability and popularity of the oral con- cies, and infection from HIV/AIDS and traceptive pill starting late in the 1960s. In other sexually transmitted diseases. They developing countries, women often express also need the self-confidence to say no to their gratitude to family planning for new unwanted sex or to insist that their sexual opportunities to earn an income, pursue an partners use contraception.33 education, or participate more actively in While the mere presence of contraceptive civic life.35 options is hardly sufficient to change Family planning also directly improves women’s lives and world population trends, health, especially for mothers but also for without that access even the most highly their infants and children. In developing motivated women and couples are unlikely countries, children are significantly more to be sexually active for long without a likely to die before their fifth birthday if they pregnancy. Lack of access to services, lack of are born fewer than two years after their knowledge, and opposition of family mem- next older sibling, whereas a gap of four bers are among the most commonly cited years or more between births raises infant reasons for not using contraception. Prohib- and child survival chances above the aver- itively high costs—in some sub-Saharan age. Mothers themselves are more likely to African nations, condoms and birth control survive childbearing if they use family plan- cost 20 percent of the average income—also ning to have fewer children, as it gives their keep many women from taking action to bodies time to recover between each birth.36 prevent pregnancy. The correlation is In the past 40 years, most developing straightforward: where contraceptive use in countries have launched programs to subsi- the world is high, families are smaller. (See dize or otherwise make more widely avail- Figure 6–2.) In Angola, Chad, and able sterilization, condoms, pills, injectable Afghanistan, for example, fewer than one Average Births per Woman in 20 couples uses contraception, and 8 N family size is close to seven children per N N 7 N NNN Source: Pop. Action Int'l NN N NN N woman. In Italy, in contrast, contracep- N N N NN N N 6 N N tive prevalence exceeds 90 percent and N NN N N N N N N N N N N 5 N N N N average fertility stands at 1.2 children per N N N N NN N N N N woman, close to the lowest fertility level 4 N N N NN N N N N N N N 34 NN N N N in the world. N N N N 3 N N N N N N NN N NN N N If contraception were simply a means N N N N N 2 N NNNNN N N N NN N N of slowing population growth, it is N NN N N NNNN N N N NN NN N unlikely that most of the world’s sexual- 1 N ly active couples would be using it. The 0 capacity to experience sex and sexuality 0 102030405060708090100 without fear of becoming a parent is Percentage of Women Using Contraceptives among the most liberating aspects of Figure 6–2. Cross-Country Analysis of contemporary life—especially for Contraceptive Use and Childbearing

138 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES contraceptives, intrauterine devices, and supplies for reproductive health appear to other methods of avoiding pregnancy. be entering a period of scarcity. Two waves Quantifying the role of different factors in are reaching shore simultaneously and rein- social change is difficult, but by one analy- forcing each other. First, the largest gener- sis, the international family planning move- ation of young people in human ment can take credit for just under half the history—1.7 billion people aged 10–24, decline in birth rates since 1960, with cul- projected to approach 1.8 billion by tural and social change accounting for the 2015—is now reaching reproductive age. rest. One interesting glimpse of the impact The number of women already aged 15–49 of government-sponsored family planning is at an all-time high at 1.55 billion and programs on national fertility comes from a could increase to 1.82 billion by 2015. At comparison of six nations with strong pro- the same time, greater proportions of grams begun before 1980—Bangladesh, young women and men want to delay child- Ghana, India, Mexico, South Korea, and bearing and to have at most two or three Zimbabwe. In each case, the use of contra- children.39 ception rose fairly continuously, with atten- Today, 525 million women use contra- dant declines in average family size that ception, and that number is projected to have helped slow the growth of world pop- reach 742 million by 2015. In Rwanda, ulation appreciably. For example, after the Guatemala, and other developing nations, Zimbabwean government launched its pro- however, surveys among men have found gram in 1968, contraceptive use jumped that between one quarter and two thirds are from just 5 percent of the population in not using any form of contraception with 1975 to 50 percent by 1993.37 their partners, even though they do not The international community can help want any more children. Presumably as this to close gaps where government provision gap between intentions and practice of family planning and reproductive health shrinks, demand for contraceptives will rise services is constrained by tight budgets, even faster. For the foreseeable future, it is debt, entrenched bureaucracies, or narrow unlikely that this growth in demand can be political conflicts. Many industrial countries satisfied without increased assistance to the have contributed funds and technical exper- developing countries where the growth is tise to such programs. Nongovernmental most dramatic.40 sources also shoulder a heavy load. Private In some countries, the contraceptive U.S. foundation expenditures may now shortage has already arrived. In July 2001, rival official U.S. overseas assistance for Indonesia revealed that its stock of contra- family planning. In Bangladesh, one quar- ceptives needed for 8.3 million low-income ter of reproductive health services comes couples would run out by the end of the from nongovernmental groups. In Colom- year. Few nations or agencies have devel- bia, an affiliate of the International Planned oped strategies for meeting the rising Parenthood Federation called Profamilia demand for contraception, and the gap provides more than 60 percent of family between demand and supply could simply planning services.38 widen over time. Worldwide, between ris- Still, the gap between the need for con- ing numbers of young people and growing traception and its availability in developing proportions wanting to plan their families, countries is particularly worrisome, because total demand for contraception is expected

139 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES to grow by 40 percent between 2000 and being to enjoy sexual expression and inten- 2015. The U.N. Population Fund has esti- tional reproduction in good health for mated that global spending on contracep- themselves and their children. But interven- tive supplies will need to more than double, tion is not likely to be fully successful in from $810 million annually in 2000 to $1.8 combating HIV/AIDS while prevailing billion in 2015. The cost of making these attitudes of sexual and gender relations contraceptives accessible through quality make women so vulnerable to sexual preda- services will also more than double, from tion in many societies. “Prevention strate- $4 billion in 2000 to $9 billion in 2015.41 gies,” says Noeleen Hayzer, Executive The impact of these two waves—more Director of UNIFEM, “must be designed young people, with higher proportions with full recognition of the social factors wanting to plan pregnancies—combines that leave most women, particularly young with yet another wave: the soaring need for women and girls, unable to negotiate safer male and female condoms to prevent HIV sex or to refuse unwanted sex.”43 and other sexually transmitted infections. More than any other single threat, HIV has The Politics of Population the potential to turn population growth around for the worst of reasons: increases in After the Earth Summit, the Cairo confer- death rates. ence, and the Beijing conference on It appears that AIDS-related deaths women, the community of nations knows could become a major factor in a reversal of why and how to slow world population population growth rates in at least one growth. And this work is moving forward. country—South Africa—which is some- The global fertility rate has fallen almost by thing few demographers would have pre- half in just 40 years. Yet the promise of dicted 20 years ago. South Africa combines reproductive health for all and equality for a 20-percent HIV infection rate for adults women remains unfulﬁlled. As a result, so aged 15–49 with a fertility rate that is low does the vision of a world moving swiftly for Africa, at fewer than three children per toward a population peak based on intend- woman. Moreover, HIV/AIDS deaths are ed childbearing.44 concentrated in the prime of life, among At the ICPD in Cairo in 1994, govern- those who have the most to offer their soci- ments agreed to spend $17 billion a year (in eties. And women and young people in 1993 dollars) by 2000 to achieve universal many countries are disproportionately access to basic reproductive health services affected. In South Africa, for example, a for all by 2015. This was to include $10.2 recent study indicated that death rates are billion for family planning services, $5 bil- higher among women in their twenties than lion for maternal health and care at delivery, among those in their sixties. By hollowing and $1.3 billion for prevention of out the core of a nation, HIV/AIDS could HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted cause economic and social havoc unprece- diseases. Since Cairo, the emerging deadli- dented in the modern world.42 ness of the HIV/AIDS pandemic has The approach most likely to slow the fur- framed it almost as a separate health issue in ther spread of the infection is the one international dialogue, with agreement that agreed to in Cairo in 1994: a holistic effort much more will need to be spent than the to maximize the prospects of every human ICPD envisioned. But so far there is no

140 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES consensus on just how much money will be services, including contraception, maternal needed in the effort to contain HIV/AIDS, care, and sexually transmitted disease pre- what it will buy, and who will pay for it.45 vention, for all who seek them. Ideally, Of the original Cairo sum for family more generous spending than the Cairo planning and other reproductive health conference foresaw would be forthcoming needs, wealthy nations pledged to cover to improve and fully integrate the entire one third of the cost, with the developing range of reproductive health services, world agreeing to pay the remainder. In including HIV/AIDS prevention and basic 1998, the most recent year with compre- treatment as well as access to safe abortion. hensive data, wealthy nations contributed At a minimum, honoring the Cairo spend- less than 40 percent of their Cairo commit- ing goal could well be more effective than ment. By contrast, developing nations have any other single effort in improving the been spending close to 70 percent of their lives of women and bringing population committed levels. (This proportion is some- growth to an early peak based on intention- what distorted, however, by high spending al and healthy childbearing. in China, India, and Indonesia, with much Historically, the world’s major religions lower spending in sub-Saharan Africa.)46 have erected some of the most formidable The U.S. contribution to Cairo spending barriers to increased availability of family levels has been the most disappointing. The planning services and reproductive health nation with the world’s largest economy care in general. Some Catholic, Islamic, and should be spending, according to calcula- other religious leaders continue to preach tions by Population Action International, abstinence as the only effective and moral $1.9 billion annually on family planning means of controlling births. Nonetheless, and related health programs in developing from Iran to Italy, nations in which religion countries. The current U.S. contribution, plays a major role have made great progress however, is $500 million for reproductive in widening access to family planning and health programs, as appropriated for ﬁscal reproductive health care and improving the year 2001, including $450 million for fam- status of women.48 ily planning and ancillary services and $50 Many religious leaders are coming to million specifically for maternal health. realize that there is no inherent conﬂict Abortion-related restrictions—the “global between family planning and religion, and gag rule” reinstated by the Bush adminis- that in fact lack of reproductive rights rep- tration—complicate the allocation of these resents a grave social injustice. In Iran, funds. Consistent with greater attention to Islamic clerics have even issued fatwas, or the HIV/AIDS pandemic, the U.S. gov- religious edicts, approving family planning ernment appropriated $320 million to methods—from oral contraceptives and combat the disease, but so far there is no condoms to sterilization. This approval, roadmap for how the money will be spent along with the integration of family plan- or whether it will be integrated with any ning services with primary health care, the other aspects of reproductive health or with provision of free contraceptives, and the needed changes in gender relations.47 strengthening of men’s role in reproductive For the vision of Cairo to be realized, the health, resulted in the total fertility rate in ICPD Programme of Action needs to be Iran dropping from 5.6 children in 1985 to fully funded to provide reproductive health 2.8 children in 2000—among the most pre-

141 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES cipitous declines in family size in the mod- Conservative U.S. politicians, too, would ern demographic transition.49 like to see Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme The influence of religious leaders tends Court decision legalizing abortion in the to occur at the level of policymakers— United States, overturned. And they con- undermining agreements on population tinue to stymie efforts to fund internation- and reproductive health, for example, and al family planning programs, even though discouraging government health programs opinion polls show that the vast majority of that include effective access to a range of Americans support both a woman’s right to contraceptives. At the household level, in control her own fertility and U.S. efforts in contrast, women and men make the choic- this area overseas.51 es that affect their daily lives. In the privacy From some political and religious orga- of their bedrooms, many see contraception nizations, yet another misconception not as a sin or a sign of lack of faith, but as clouds discussion and muzzles debate—the an important part of loving, committed idea that providing choices about pregnan- relationships. cy and childbearing is synonymous with the Where religion continues to hamper promotion of abortion. In the United efforts to give people greater control over States, a consistent effort by a small number their reproductive lives, the world’s reli- of groups and politicians to promote this gious leaders may need to reconcile their point of view has politicized what was once actions with their humanitarian ideals. For a bipartisan effort to guarantee worldwide instance, Bishop Kevin Dowling recently access to contraception, and it has created a risked his career when he introduced a pro- web of restrictions on U.S. spending to posal at the Southern African Catholic Bish- support international family planning. Iron- ops conference in support of condom use as ically, demographic research confirms what part of the wider effort to stop the spread of logic tells us: wider provision of good fam- HIV in his region—home to the highest ily planning services reduces the numbers of HIV infection rates in the world. Although abortions that would otherwise occur. the proposal was rejected, and the Church When researchers looked at two similar remains aggressively opposed to condom areas of rural Bangladesh, one with good use, Bishop Dowling’s efforts give some family planning services and the other with- sense of the leadership that will be needed if out, they found that abortion rates had religions are to work with others in the increased over the past two decades in the fight against HIV/AIDS and other public one with poor family planning services but health problems related to reproduction.50 had held steady at low rates in the area with The gap between the opinions of church good services.52 leaders and church members on reproduc- Just as important as spending levels are tive issues mirrors a wider chasm between the political attitudes that shape and expand elected officials and their constituencies. population policies and reproductive health According to a recent Gallup poll, for programs around the world. In the spirit of example, over 75 percent of Mexicans Cairo, countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin believe in a woman’s right to choose abor- America are rethinking population policies tion. Yet Mexico’s politicians oppose and programs and looking to the Pro- reforms allowing women and couples gramme of Action for guidance on new greater access to safe abortion procedures. directions related to overall health and

142 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES development. Progress is uneven, of course. sexual coercion and when women approach The governor of the Indian state of Andhra economic, social, and political parity with Pradesh, for example, publicly urges the men, they have fewer children and give parents of large families to “immediately birth later on average than their mothers go” for state-sponsored sterilizations. And did—and, assuming good access to health China’s central government resists the key and family planning services, fertility almost principle of reproductive freedom of choice invariably reaches replacement level or by continuing to insist that most Chinese lower. That slows the growth of population. couples limit their families to a single child. Yet this centrality of women to popula- Nonetheless, the government has at least tion’s future also introduces discomfort, acknowledged the importance of the princi- implying that interest in slowing population ples agreed to at Cairo. And India’s federal growth can turn women into instruments government is abandoning its decades-long for some “larger” purpose, or into com- history of targets and quotas for family modities to be counted and valued for the planning and its reliance on sterilization results of their reproductive decisions and rather than the contraceptives that are more actions. Those who work to slow the appropriate for tens of millions of couples.53 growth of population and those who work The overall movement among national for women’s parity with men sometimes are governments in developing countries is the same people, aiming at many of the clearly away from bureaucratic population same interim objectives: access to compre- “control” and toward supporting the choic- hensive and integrated reproductive health es of couples and individuals to have chil- care, ending the gender gap in education dren, when desired, in good health. and in economic opportunities, eliminating violence against women. The fact is that Correcting Gender Myopia certain changes are essential for women themselves—simply from a perspective of In the long view of where population poli- fairness and equal rights for all humans— cy is heading, the most daunting issues while simultaneously contributing to include not only religious obstacles or pub- broader improvements in population trends lic division over abortion rights, but also and in human and environmental welfare. the social and psychological shifts that will The pervasiveness of violence against occur as women approach equal status with women around the world—verbal, physical, men. The more we learn about the inter- sexual, or economic—stands as the connections between population growth, strongest indictment against current rela- fertility, timing of pregnancy, and reproduc- tions between the sexes. (See Box 6–3.) As tive health, the more we see their links to many as half of all women have experienced ingrained attitudes about the relative roles domestic violence, according to the World and power between females and males. Health Organization. Abuse from an inti- As long as girls and women are envi- mate partner is the most common form, sioned as less able than boys and men to and this occurs in all countries—transcend- navigate human experience and decide for ing economic, cultural, and religious themselves how to live, population policy boundaries. This picture of abuse is a con- will always be imperfect. When girls go to servative one at best: shame, fear, lack of secondary school free of fear of violence and legal rights, and gender inequality inside

143 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES

BOX 6–3. VULNERABLE BY GENDER

Abuse shadows women from birth. Sex-selec- lives of essentially forced prostitution. In 2000, tive abortions, female infanticide, and neglect as many as 5,000 young girls died at the hands of female children are common in India, China, of their parents or another relative for sham- and other nations. By some estimates, today’s ing their families under prevailing social world population should include more than mores—they were suspected of having had 60 million girls whose absence can only by sex or sometimes simply of socializing with explained by the fact that their own parents the opposite sex. In some cases, the “dishonor” wanted them only if they were boys. Many was that they had been raped. girls who survive early childhood experience It is tragically no surprise that women in other abuses, including enforced malnutrition, some societies are much more likely than men incest, female genital cutting, denial of medical to take their own lives. Eighty percent of all care, early marriage, prostitution, and forced suicides in Turkey are women, and similarly labor. An estimated 130 million women and high rates are found in other repressive soci- girls worldwide have undergone a ritualized eties, such as China,Afghanistan, and Iran. In all cutting of their genitals; another 2 million these cases, the link to population change is girls a year still experience this ancient complex but signiﬁcant: societies that treat tradition, which can lead to a lifetime of women as property, or cause their disappear- painful urination, menstruation, and sexual ance because they are not male, or drive them intercourse, and which adds to the risk of to take their own lives are unlikely to support death in childbirth. the conditions needed for planned families and Girls and women are more likely than boys the delay of pregnancy and childbirth. and men to be sold into slavery, and trafﬁcking in women condemns thousands annually to SOURCE: See endnote 54.

and outside the household keep many power of older men—sometimes including women from reporting their attackers.54 teachers—and the relative inability of girls Many men consider sex an uncondition- to negotiate whether and under what con- al right, and fear of reprisal can prevent girls ditions they have sex.55 and women from discussing contraception Used as a weapon, sexual violence in all or their sexual rights with partners. The its forms—coerced sex, rape, incest— United Nations reports that women in inhibits women’s ability to control their Kenya and Zimbabwe hide their birth con- own reproductive health. Ending this vio- trol pills for fear that their husbands might lence will be first and foremost its own discover that “they no longer control their reward. The supplemental benefit for posi- wives’ fertility.” Young girls married off to tive demographic change comes from the older men are neither emotionally nor simple fact that women can scarcely be free physically prepared for their first sexual to decide for themselves when and with experience, which can set them up for years whom to become parents if they cannot of having no say in when they have sex. In even control the security of their persons. several African countries, most HIV-infect- Gender-related violence, however, is ed teenagers are female, reflecting the simply the most direct form of discrimina-

144 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES tion against women. Economies and soci- than three fourths as many females as males eties generally undervalue women’s work, are enrolled in primary and secondary from the household to the farm, the facto- school, for example, per capita income is ry, and the office. Women typically work roughly one fourth lower than in other longer hours than men—nurturing chil- countries. There can be little doubt that dren, caring for elders, maintaining homes, increases in income that have their roots in farming, and hauling wood and water home the education of girls and women also help from distant sources. This labor is largely build societies in which women on average invisible to economists and policymakers, have fewer children and give birth later in but by some estimates it amounts to a third their lives.58 of the world’s economic production.56 With the emergence of strong women’s When women’s contributions do emerge NGOs in the decade since Cairo, it seems from this obscurity, opportunities some- likely that full political participation by times open up for broader social develop- women in national politics may become ment as well as slower population growth. the last and most important frontier in Making sure that girls and young women achieving the gender equity needed for are in school, for example, can sometimes truly sustainable societies. Women remain be even more effective than improved sani- underrepresented at all levels of govern- tation, employment, or a higher income in ment in almost all countries. There has helping children survive. The nations in been progress, but it has been slow, with sub-Saharan Africa with the highest levels women’s share of seats in lower chambers of female schooling—Botswana, Kenya, and of parliaments growing from 3 percent in Zimbabwe—are also the nations with the 1945 to 14 percent in 2001. Typically, lowest levels of child mortality, despite women’s leadership is parceled out in less higher levels of poverty than some of their powerful sectors of government, such as neighbors. A study from the International health and education, with much smaller Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) numbers of women holding key economic, found that improvements in women’s edu- political, and executive positions. Higher cation were responsible for 43 percent of rates of illiteracy, poverty, and other social the reduction in child malnutrition in the and economic handicaps conspire against developing world in the last 25 years.57 political participation by women. Although These benefits across generations appear sexual and reproductive rights occupy min- to result from women’s tendency to devote imal space in debates over democracy, notes higher proportions of their personal income Marta Lamas of Mexico, once gained they than men do to the needs of their children. allow women to achieve self-determination, A study in Brazil found that additional and are thus intimately linked to the mean- income in the hands of mothers was 20 ing of modern citizenship.59 times more likely to improve child survival Evidence from Sweden, South Africa, than the same income earned by fathers. In India, and other nations shows that when general, as David Dollar and Roberta Gatti more women hold political office, issues of the World Bank state, “Societies that important to women and their families rise have a preference for not investing in girls in priority and are acted on by those in pay a price in terms of slower growth and power. Over the past decade, the Swedish reduced income.” In countries where fewer government—where women currently hold

145 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES

almost 43 percent of the seats in Parliament areas where women are the ones toting the and 82 percent of the cabinet ministries— fuelwood and water and tilling the soil. In has passed expansive equal opportunity and the past decade, the international develop- child care leave acts. And in South Africa, ment community has made strides in focus- which established a quota for women can- ing its efforts on women’s stewardship of didates to parliament in 2000, women hold natural resources. “Since rights to natural 119 of the 399 seats in the National Assem- resources are so heavily biased against bly and 8 of the 29 cabinet positions. These women,” reasons Agnes Quisumbing of female politicians have played a key role in IFPRI, “equalizing these rights will lead to lobbying for the Choice of Termination of more efficient and equitable resource use.” Pregnancy Act and the Domestic Violence Indeed, when government officials or com- Act and in establishing governmental insti- munity leaders fail to recognize the differ- tutions that promote gender equality.60 ent ways women use natural resources—in the spaces between male-managed cash When women gain rights to land or crops, for example—the resources are easily other resources, they also gain power that destroyed.62 reaches well beyond forests or watersheds. When women gain rights to land or other resources, they also gain power that Despite such progress and the evidence reaches well beyond forests or watersheds. of its benefits, gender myopia continues to By commanding a concrete resource, notes cloud the vision needed by development Indian economist Bina Agarwal, women agencies, international lenders, and govern- can take more control in existing relations ments. From agriculture to trade liberaliza- by improving their self-sufficiency, reducing tion to health care reforms, policy decisions their dependence on men, and boosting affect women in quite distinct ways. If their their bargaining position within the mar- specific concerns are not made part of the riage, including their ability to negotiate policy process, the results can be disastrous. contraceptive use with their husbands. All But seeing things through a gender lens these produce benefits that ripple out into requires a very different course for develop- the broader community.63 ment—one that includes women and other The strong role women play in environ- marginalized groups—in planning and mental stewardship points to the opportuni- decisionmaking. Rachel Kyte, a senior spe- ty for integrating reproductive health and cialist at the International Finance Corpora- family planning components into conservation, argues that even now, a full decade tion programs. In the 1970s, some western after Rio, “it’s very difficult to talk about NGOs concerned with improving rural the rights of women when the development environments and reducing poverty in the industry remains truly patriarchal.” Gender, Philippines and Nepal began to offer by this view, is still not a central issue in improved access to family planning services. development, perhaps in part because it so As interest in family planning expanded, fundamentally challenges men’s power.61 other organizations partnered with national Gender myopia can be especially damag- and regional family planning organizations ing in natural resource policy—for example, to respond to women’s requests for help when development agencies offer technical with avoiding pregnancy. These initiatives and agricultural assistance mostly to men in demonstrated that incorporating improved

146 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES access to contraception and other reproduc- in which teenaged Djenaba was interviewed tive health services can increase women’s in the 1990s, have no easy access to the participation in natural resource conserva- health services that would allow a new tion or functional literacy programs and vice mother to wait a few years before being versa—a real-life demonstration that health pregnant again. But there are positive signs and family planning cannot be separated that such isolation cannot endure much from other aspects of people’s lives.64 longer. More NGOs than ever consist of More recently, in Madagascar’s Spiny women advocating for women’s rights, Forest Ecoregion—home to the greatest empowerment, and well-being. The gap concentration of baobab trees in the between the numbers of boys and girls in world—the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) schools is beginning to close. Governments produced maps showing that where female increasingly acknowledge the principles that literacy levels were the lowest, both popula- were affirmed in 1994 in Cairo—that the tion growth rates and deforestation were the capacity to plan a family is a basic right and highest. Based on this, WWF fieldworkers that population trends should flow from the and local stakeholders formed a partnership free decisions of women and couples.67 with Madagascar’s regional public health As the growing concerns about popula- organization to deliver literacy programs, tion aging and decline in some countries reproductive health information, and family illustrate, it is increasingly possible that planning services to communities with both world population growth will end within the highest population growth and the the next 50 years. By the end of this centu- greatest levels of biodiversity.65 ry, there may be few countries whose popu- As the connections between conservation lations are still growing. For the sake of the and population projects become clearer, the environment and healthy human relations, environmental community and environment we should encourage this historic process, ministers can become an important new resisting the urge to try to roll back popu- constituency for discussions of reproductive lation aging in some countries by stoking health and women’s rights. Investments to continued population growth. We can slow the rate of population growth will sig- work, as well, to make sure that the nificantly reinforce efforts to address many inevitable end to that growth is driven by environmental challenges, and considerably intended reductions in births, not by lower the price of such efforts.66 increases in deaths. The river of thought on human rights If we succeed, history will note that and development runs inexorably toward world population growth ended not the emancipation of women everywhere because governments commanded it to do and equality between men and women. But so, but because the free decisions of women eddies and rivulets carry the water back- and men made that end inevitable. And the wards every day—as when pregnant girls are population peak will arrive as one momen- expelled from school, or when the genitals tous ripple from an equally momentous of young women are cut in a ritual destruc- drop of a stone in a pond—the stone by tion of their capacity for sexual pleasure. which women at last gain their full rights, Unfortunately, it is likely that even today choices, and standing as equal members of people in Djole, the central Malian village the human family.

147 State of the World 2002 RETHINKING POPULATION, IMPROVING LIVES

WORLD SUMMIT PRIORITIES ON POPULATION AND GENDER EQUITY

➣ Meet the goals of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, including funding universal access to reproductive health care and closing the gender gap in education. ➣ Aggressively respond to the global HIV/AIDS pandemic, stressing prevention of further infections as well as treatment of those already infected. ➣ Change laws and work for social change to ensure that women enjoy equal protection and equal rights. ➣ Increase female participation in all levels of politics. ➣ Correct gender myopia in all levels of private and public planning, including international lending, natural resource policy, and globalization. ➣ Guarantee equal access to economic opportunities for women and men. ➣ Enact and enforce strong laws to protect women from all gender-based violence. ➣ Involve men in reproductive health services and discussions, and educate them about the importance of gender equity. ➣ Ensure that young people have better access to reproductive health care choices and to education on sexuality and the changing roles of men and women.

148 Chapter 7

Breaking the Link Between Resources and Repression Michael Renner

The United Nations Children’s Fund has dependent on foreign food aid. While the described Angola as “the worst place in the bulk of the population lives in misery and world to be a child.” Almost 30 percent of terror, the leaders of both the government children die before they reach the age of six. and the rebel UNITA forces have devoted Nearly half of all Angolan children are most of the money they gained selling underweight, two thirds of Angolans scrape Angola’s resources to buying weapons and by on less than a dollar a day, and 42 per- lining their own pockets. The ideological cent of adults are illiterate. Food shortages, differences that first sparked the war now unsafe drinking water, and a pervasive lack reside in the dustbin of history, but of sanitation and health services have com- resource-driven greed and corruption have bined to limit life expectancy to just 47 proved to be powerful fuel for its continua- years—short even by the standards of sub- tion. Instead of a promise, diamond and oil Saharan Africa. The 2001 Human Develop- wealth has turned out to be a curse.2 ment Index of the U.N. Development Though a somewhat extreme case, Ango- Programme (UNDP), a broad measure of la is merely one of numerous places in the social and economic progress, ranked developing world where abundant natural Angola 160th out of 174 nations.1 resources help fuel conflicts. (See Table Endowed with ample diamond and oil 7–1.) Altogether, about a quarter of the 49 deposits and other natural resources, Ango- wars and armed conflicts waged during la should not be on the bottom rungs of the 2000 had a strong resource dimension—in world’s social ladder. But more than a quar- the sense that legal or illegal resource ter-century of brutal “civil” war has exploitation helped trigger or exacerbate imploded the economy, displaced close to 4 violent conflict or financed its continuation.3 million people—one out of three As of late 2001, conflict is not on the Angolans—and left about a million people agenda of the World Summit on Sustainable State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION

Table 7–1. Selected Examples of Resource Conﬂicts

Location and Resources Observation

Colombia – oil Since 1992, a “war tax” (more than $1 per barrel) has been levied on foreign oil firms to finance the army’s defense of oil installations against rebel attack. Occi- dental Petroleum also made direct payments to the army. Guerrilla groups have generated some $140 million in extortion money from oil firms. Oil has become Colombia’s largest export earner, but most people see few benefits, and indigenous groups like the U’wa fear growing encroachment by the oil industry. Protests against oil projects have brought military repression. Sudan – oil Civil war restarted in 1983 (the government reneged on a peace pact after oil was discovered in 1980), leading to more than 2 million deaths, 1 million refugees, and 4.5 million people displaced. Oil exports, started in 1999, now escalate the conflict: oil revenues pay for arms imports and helped triple military expenditures; oil industry roads and airstrips are used by the army. To depopulate oil-producing and potentially oil-rich areas in southern Sudan, government forces are bombing villages, destroying harvests, and looting livestock, and they are encouraging intertribal warfare by supplying arms to some factions. Opposition forces have targeted oil installations. Chad and Cameroon – Suppression of a revolt in Chad’s Doba region (where oil production is to start oil in 2003) led to hundreds of deaths. In 2000, the government of Chad bought weapons with part of $25 million in “bonuses” paid by ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Petronas. Construction of a pipeline to Cameroon’s coast threatens the land of the Baka Pygmies and may bring poaching and unregulated logging to Atlantic rainforest areas. Afghanistan – Opium trafficking helped finance the anti-Soviet struggle and then civil war emeralds, among Mujahideen factions. It has been a crucial source of revenue for the lapis lazuli, Taliban regime in the ongoing civil war since the mid-1990s, earning it up to $50 opium, heroin million a year. Opium production surged from 10 tons in the late 1970s to 1,200 tons in 1989 and then 4,600 tons in 1999. Under international pressure, the Taliban banned poppy cultivation in July 2000, but scrapped this ban following U.S. attacks in October 2001. A 25-percent tax has also been levied on timber shipments to Pakistan. The opposition Northern Alliance has relied mostly on earning up to $60 million annually from the sale of emeralds and lapis lazuli (an azure-blue semiprecious stone). Cambodia – Following the end of Chinese aid in 1989, Khmer Rouge rebels resorted to sapphires, resource looting to finance their operations. Mining and logging licenses granted rubies, timber to Thai companies in Khmer Rouge territory earned the group as much as $120–240 million a year in the early to mid-1990s. Gem depletion and Thai restrictions on the timber trade caused a sharp income drop after 1995, severely weakening the Khmer Rouge. The Cambodian government was making some $100 million a year in the mid-1990s from secret, illicit deals that gave Vietnamese loggers access to timber concessions. But extensive deforestation cut earnings to $20 million.

Note: Examples discussed in some detail in this chapter (Angola, Sierra Leone, Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea) are not included here. SOURCE: See endnote 3.

150 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION

Development in Johannesburg. But it is wars to continue that were triggered by unquestionably an issue of prime impor- other factors—initially driven by grievances tance. Basic human security—the absence of or ideological struggles and bankrolled by violent conflict—is a precondition for estab- the superpowers or other external support- lishing a sustainable society. And many con- ers. Elsewhere, nature’s bounty attracts temporary resource-related conflicts are groups that may claim they are driven by an being fought in areas of great environmental unresolved grievance such as political value. The Democratic Republic of Congo oppression or the denial of minority rights, (formerly Zaire), Indonesia, Papua New but are actually criminal entrepreneurs try- Guinea, and Colombia, for example, togeth- ing to get rich through illegal resource er account for 10 percent of the world’s extraction. They initiate violence not to remaining intact forests. These and other overthrow a government, but to gain and countries in which resource conflicts are rag- maintain control over lucrative resources, ing are also home to some of the world’s typically one of the few sources of wealth in biodiversity hotspots. Yet they suffered from poorer societies. They are greatly aided by the world’s highest net loss of forest area in the fact that many countries are weakened the 1990s, due to illegal logging and a host by poor or repressive governance, crum- of other factors.4 bling public services, the lack of economic opportunities, and the presence of deep The Relationship Between social divides. Resources and Conflict There is another dimension to the relationship between resources and conflict. It There is growing awareness of the close links concerns the repercussions from resource among illegal resource extraction, arms extraction itself. In many developing coun- trafficking, violent conflict, human rights tries, the economic benefits of mining and violations, humanitarian disaster, and envi- logging operations accrue to a small busi- ronmental destruction. Expert panels estab- ness or government elite and to foreign lished by the United Nations have investors. But in case after case, an array of investigated cases in Angola, Sierra Leone, burdens—ranging from the expropriation and the Democratic Republic of Congo. of land, disruption of traditional ways of Civil society groups have launched a cam- life, environmental devastation, and social paign against “conflict diamonds” from maladies—are shouldered by the local pop- those countries and have shed light on other ulation. Typically, these communities are conflict resources as well. Company and neither informed nor consulted about industry practices are coming under greater resource extraction projects. This has led to scrutiny. Media reports have helped carry violent conflict in places like Nigeria’s these concerns from activist and specialist Niger Delta, Bougainville in Papua New circles to a broader audience. All of this also Guinea, and a variety of provinces in comes against the background of an intensi- Indonesia. Rather than full-fledged war, fying debate over the unchecked these conflicts usually involve smaller-scale proliferation of small arms—the weapons skirmishes, roadblocks, acts of sabotage, of choice in resource-based conflicts. and major human rights violations by state In some places, the pillaging of oil, min- security forces and rebel groups. erals, metals, gemstones, or timber allows This chapter is concerned with natural

151 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION resources extracted through mining and have their roots in long-standing grievances, logging activities, but other resource-relat- changed circumstances have altered the ed conflicts are also taking place around the dynamics of these conflicts and provided world. Many local and regional disputes them with a powerful momentum of their revolve around equitable access to arable own: a vicious cycle in which the spoils of land and water, although these resources resource exploitation fund war, and war pro- are not easily traded and therefore do not vides continued access to these resources. lend themselves to financing hostilities. The end of cold war rivalry meant that Due to space constraints, the chapter also much of the support previously extended does not address conflicts arising out of the by the two superpowers to their Third depletion of resources and degradation of World allies—whether governments or natural systems. rebels—has fallen by the wayside. While The examples discussed here are all external patrons (either governments or “civil” conflicts in the sense that the vio- nationals living outside the country) have lence takes place within a given country, not vanished altogether, warring factions although there are important global con- are increasingly relying on a variety of crim- nections through the world market for ille- inal means, including extortion, pillage, gal resources and the supply of arms, and hostage-taking, monopolistic control of through spillovers into neighboring coun- trade, drug trafficking, exploitation of tries. The years ahead will also likely witness coerced labor, and commandeering of the threat of growing resource wars across humanitarian aid within their borders.6 borders. A recent study by Professor But possibly the most important revenue Michael Klare of Hampshire College source is the illicit extraction and trading of underscores that as demand for fuels, min- natural resources. Paul Collier, director of erals, water, and other primary commodi- the Development Research Group at the ties continues to rise at environmentally World Bank, suggests that greed and the unsustainable rates, disputes over owner- availability of “lootable” natural resource ship are multiplying, and emerging scarci- wealth are key factors. What is required is ties are increasing the likelihood that the presence of primary commodities that industrial powers will intervene to secure can be captured or taxed by armed groups. “their” supplies of raw materials.5 While Collier overstates the importance of greed and downplays other factors such as Anatomy of Resource grievance, his work underscores that “some Conflicts countries are much more prone to conflict than others simply because they offer more In contrast to the cold war era, today’s con- inviting economic prospects for rebellion.”7 flicts are less about ideologies and more Most resource-based conflicts are unlike about the struggle to control or loot traditional wars. Pitched battles between resources—less about taking over the reins opposing sides are generally avoided of state and more about capturing locations because the objective is maintaining condi- that are rich in minerals, timber, and other tions conducive to resource looting. In fact, valuable commodities or controlling points some of the different armed factions are through which they pass on the way to mar- known to have engaged in simulated attacks kets. Although some of today’s conflicts against opposing groups, sold arms and

152 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION supplies to them, or collaborated in other impoverishment, broken lives, and death ways. The common objective is to facilitate for society at large. Groups living off a looting and to perpetuate conditions that lucrative resource have a vested interest in permit activities that otherwise would be prolonging conflict. They are likely to find plainly understood as criminal.8 this to be a more attractive choice than set- The bulk of the violence is directed tling conflict because it allows them to against civilians. Since establishing undis- maintain their privileged position and puted control over resources is a key objec- bestows a quasi-legitimacy on their tive, armed groups seek to intimidate the actions.10 local population into submission or use ter- But the lure of easy wealth through ille- ror to drive people away. “Hence the gal resource exploitation also encourages importance of extreme and conspicuous the proliferation of competing groups of atrocity,” observes Mary Kaldor of the Uni- ruthless and well-armed people, often deep- versity of Sussex, including directly ening the lawlessness and prolonging vio- expelling people, rendering an area unin- lence. The implications for those in the habitable by the indiscriminate spread of international community who seek to end landmines, shelling houses and hospitals, such conflicts are disturbing. It may be pos- chopping off people’s limbs, imposing long sible to arrange cease-fires or even peace sieges and blockades to induce famine, and accords, but these tend to be respected only applying systematic sexual violence. Unlike as long as they suit the interests of the ideologically based rebel movements, those armed groups. Achieving a true peace will pursuing resource wealth do not compete require long-term and substantial involve- for “the hearts and minds” of the local pop- ment by the international community.11 ulation. Young boys are often turned into Why are some countries susceptible to child soldiers, and girls into sex slaves for resource-based conflicts? While the avail- the fighters. Many fighters are forced to ability and “lootability” of natural resources commit atrocities, often against their own is a key factor, this alone does not explain relatives, in order to traumatize them and the conflict. Many countries with a rich to spread a sense of complicity that will pre- resource endowment have not fallen prey to vent them from being accepted back into violence. A number of factors—political, their communities later.9 social, economic, and military—result in Actions that are often described as chaos, weak states and vulnerable economies. collapse, and senseless violence in media Ample resource endowment can actually reports actually flow from a certain logic, have negative economic consequences, as albeit a perverted one. David Keen, a lec- countries grow overly dependent on these turer at the London School of Economics, resources and allocate little capital and labor argues that violence serves an economic to other sectors—agriculture, manufactur- function, maintaining a conflict economy ing, and services. The result is a failure to that benefits certain groups—government diversify the economy and to stimulate officials, warlords, combatants, arms smug- innovative energies and the development of glers, and unscrupulous traders and busi- human skills. And the volatility of world nesspeople. Those who benefit from this commodity market prices can trigger dis- violent “mode of accumulation” derive torting boom-and-bust cycles. profit, power, and status, even as it spells Some researchers argue that societies

153 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION

whose main income is derived from means to maintain control. However, ruling resource royalties instead of value added are in such a fashion intensifies frictions within prone to develop a culture with widespread society. In such conditions, discontented and corruption, a growing gap between rich aggrieved groups turn increasingly to protest and poor, and state institutions that do not and perhaps violence, rivals rise to challenge function properly and fail to serve the pub- the discredited leadership, and ruthless polit- lic. Resource extraction industries tend to ical or criminal entrepreneurs who sense an have enclave characteristics—that is, they opportunity for pillaging resources use vio- have few linkages to the rest of the local lence to achieve their objective.14 economy, particularly if the resources are Many developing countries, particularly exported before any processing takes place. in sub-Saharan Africa, face a situation where Frequently, enclaves are also physically sep- government forces are in decay and private arated, as mineral deposits or timber security formations, including paramilitary resources are often found in remote areas. units, citizens’ self-defense groups, corpo- The benefits to the larger economy are rate-sponsored forces, foreign mercenaries, therefore quite limited.12 and criminal gangs, are on the rise. In fact, it is becoming more difficult to make clear- The resources over which so much blood cut distinctions between legitimate and ille- is being shed have consumers in the gitimate, between public and private, richest countries as their destinations. security forces. This is happening for a number of rea- Another factor is the extremely poor sons. Without cold war–motivated sponsor- governance of many countries, in some ship and under increasing pressure from cases leading to what William Reno of western donors for belt-tightening, many Northwestern University has called the governments can no longer maintain large “shadow state”: a situation where corrup- armies. Soldiers go unpaid or underpaid tion and patronage are rife, public goods and often turn to other sources of funding, and services are being withheld from most including looting and extortion. Some mil- people, and state institutions (like the civil itary commanders become de facto local service, universities, the central bank) are warlords. Such fragmentation is even more weakened to thwart potential challengers to likely where rulers have deliberately created the ruler, while a parallel network outside rival security forces that keep each other in these formal institutions is created for the check, preventing a serious challenge to benefit of leaders and their cronies. State central control.15 revenues are diverted to generate huge illic- During the 1990s, a number of private it fortunes for rulers and payments to key mercenary firms rose to prominence. Com- regime supporters. (Zaire’s dictator Mobu- panies like Executive Outcomes (now tu, for instance, was thought to have defunct), Sandline International, Defense amassed illegal wealth worth an estimated Systems Ltd., and Ghurka Security Guards $4–6 billion, more than the country’s attracted military personnel from western annual economic output.)13 industrial and former Warsaw Pact armies Rulers of shadow states often foster and who lost their jobs at the end of the cold war, manipulate conflicts among different com- as well as veterans of apartheid-era South munities, factions, and ethnic groups as a Africa. They offer a range of “services” that

154 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION include training and consulting, guarding Because many activities along the facilities, procuring or brokering weapons, resource-conflict spectrum are illicit in and running combat operations—and corpo- nature and involve actors of questionable rations and governments the world over have legitimacy, grey and black market transfers contracted with them. Several beleaguered carry special significance. The trafficking of governments, including those of Angola, arms is closely linked to illegal trade of raw Sierra Leone, and Papua New Guinea, materials such as minerals, timber, and dia- turned to them to help fight rebel groups, monds. The routes on which arms and paying them with revenues derived from commodities travel in opposite directions natural resources or, in some cases, granting are often the same. Revenues from selling them (or affiliated companies) concessions to off commodities finance the purchase of diamonds and other resources.16 arms, ammunition, military equipment, Multinational oil and mining corpora- uniforms, and other items; sometimes tions often rely on private security forces to weapons are directly bartered for natural guard their operations and facilities. And in resources, drugs, animal products, and some cases, such as Occidental Petroleum other commodities.19 in Colombia, Shell in Nigeria, Talisman Resource-based conflicts in places like Energy in Sudan, and ExxonMobil and Kono, Aceh, and Bentai seem far removed Freeport-McMoRan in Indonesia, they from the shopping malls of the western have subsidized or helped train and arm world. But the resources over which so government security forces or have made much blood is being shed have consumers equipment and facilities available. These in the richest countries as their destination, units have been involved in severe human no matter how complex and circuitous the rights violations.17 networks of delivery are. For consumers, The massive proliferation of small arms this connection is easiest to grasp in the case and light weapons plays a key role in all of of diamonds, a highly visible and promi- this. Resource-based conflicts are primarily nently marketed product. For materials like carried out with such weapons because they petroleum, timber, copper, and coltan, the are cheap, widely available, easy to conceal connection is harder to make because they and smuggle, and easy to use and maintain. undergo extensive processing before they Using them does not require complex find their way into complex final products. logistical arrangements. A rough estimate (See Box 7–1.) But a portion of the western of global small arms production suggests world’s cell phones, mahogany furniture, that about 6 million pistols, revolvers, rifles, and gold chains bears the invisible imprint submachine guns, and machine guns were of violence.20 manufactured each year during the past two In the final analysis, it is the strong decades; all in all, it is thought that at least demand for commodities and the consumer 550 million firearms exist worldwide. For products made from them that makes illegal 2000 alone, it is estimated that at least 15 resource exploitation so lucrative. The billion rounds of ammunition were pro- enormous expansion of global trade and the duced. The picture that emerges, despite growth of associated trading and financial uncertainty surrounding the data, is one of networks have made access to key markets a world exceedingly well equipped with relatively easy for warring groups. They these tools of terror and death.18 have had little difficulty in establishing

155 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION international smuggling networks, given that are at war, as the oil companies either a lack of awareness and scrutiny or a Chevron and Elf have done in Angola; degree of complicity among international • by facilitating the shipment of illicit raw traders, manufacturers, and financiers, as materials, such as Sabena flying coltan well as lax controls in consuming nations.21 derived from occupied Congo to Europe; Some major international companies and have in effect helped perpetuate resource- • by operating in countries with repressive based conflict in several ways: or illegitimate governments, as Exxon- • by purchasing “hot” commodities from Mobil and Freeport-McMoRan in combatants, as De Beers did until recent- Indonesia, Shell in Nigeria, Talisman ly when it bought conflict diamonds; Energy and others in Sudan, and Occi- • by providing revenues to governments dental in Colombia do.

BOX 7–1. THE COLTAN CONNECTION

Few owners of mobile phones realize that dan troops and their rebel allies, the Rally for their technical gadgets may link them to one of Congolese Democracy (RCD), took control the deadliest of contemporary wars—the con- of 1,000–1,500 tons of coltan stocks in ﬂict in the Democratic Republic of Congo. 1998–99. They also drove Congolese farmers Coltan, short for columbite-tantalite, is one of off their coltan-rich land and had Rwandan the raw materials that warring factions have prisoners dig for coltan in exchange for battled over. With the appearance of gritty reduced sentences. black mud, coltan is an ore containing tanta- The high-tech industry’s soaring demand for lum, a highly heat-resistant material. Tantalum is tantalum triggered a temporary global supply crucial for the manufacturing of capacitors, tiny shortage in 2000. Prices surged from less than components that regulate the ﬂow of current $20 per pound in 1998 to more than $200, on circuit boards and help make the modern making the coltan business extremely lucrative world go round. As one journalist put it,“for for the warring parties and individual miners. the high-tech industry, tantalum is magic dust.” In late 2000, the RCD rebels said they pro- More than half the global supply is used by the duced 100–200 tons of coltan a month, yielding electronics industry for products like cell the group a larger windfall than its diamond phones, laptops, and pagers, but there are also mining activities. Then in 2001, prices crashed important applications in the aerospace, in response to slumping cell phone sales, defense, chemical, pharmaceutical, medical, and putting a damper on the gold rush–like condi- automotive industries. tions in illegal mining camps in eastern Congo. World tantalum supply runs to about Still, coltan deposits retain their lure—the 3,000–3,500 tons a year. Perhaps three quar- promise of a better life in a country where ters of this comes from legitimate mining oper- most incomes are measured in mere cents ations in Australia, Canada, and Brazil. But per day. Congo, with the world’s fourth-largest coltan reserves, is also an important supplier. Rwan- SOURCE: See endnote 20.

156 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION

These corporate practices do not necessari- regional difference....The root of the conly all constitute wrongdoing. Oil companies flict is and remains diamonds, diamonds in Angola are contracting with a recognized and diamonds.”24 government, for example. But their pres- Even prior to the 1990s, corruption, ence plays an enabling role in situations cronyism, and illegal mining had squan- where the majority of the population suffers dered the country’s diamond riches, to the from violence and deprivation.22 point where few government services were functioning, and educational and economic How Conflicts Are Financed opportunities were few and far between. by Natural Resource Pillage Sierra Leone became a “model” shadow state. Pressure from international lenders A campaign against “blood diamonds” for financial austerity and retrenchment in launched by civil society groups has high- the government workforce only succeeded lighted the fact that several violent conflicts in worsening the situation. The Interna- in developing countries are funded by the tional Rescue Committee has reported that sale of glittering stones that advertisers one third of all babies in the diamond-rich work hard to associate with the idea of love Kenema District die before age one. UNDP and personal commitment. Diamonds and placed Sierra Leone dead last on its Human other commodities have been of particular Development Index.25 concern in three conflicts discussed in some Throughout the 1990s, Sierra Leone detail here: Sierra Leone, the Democratic suffered from rebellion, banditry, coups and Republic of Congo, and Angola. coup attempts, and seesawing battle for- It is difficult to know the share of tunes. (See Table 7–2.) In March 1991, the resources derived from war zones. For dia- Revolutionary United Front (RUF) invad- monds, industry giant De Beers estimates ed Sierra Leone from Liberia, with strong that in 1999 blood diamonds accounted for backing from then warlord and now presi- about 4 percent of the world’s rough dia- dent Charles Taylor, and seized control of mond production of $6.8 billion. But other the Kono diamond fields. The ranks of the estimates go as high as 10–20 percent. RUF contained disaffected young men Besides conflict diamonds, there is also a from slum areas, illicit diamond miners, substantial quantity of illicit diamonds— Liberian and Burkinabe mercenaries, and ones that have been mined illegally or stolen, others who welcomed the opportunity for but not derived from conflict areas. Because pillage and violence. But many others were both types rely on gray and black markets, it kidnapped and forced to commit atrocities, is extremely difficult to distinguish between including a large number of children. them. A U.N. group of experts estimated Though the RUF professed to act on unre- that about 20 percent of the global trade in solved grievances, its principal aim was to rough diamonds is illicit in nature.23 gain control over the country’s mineral Diamonds have played a central role in wealth. The rebellion was characterized by the conflict that devastated Sierra Leone banditry and brutality. It claimed more than during the 1990s. Ibrahim Kamara, Sierra 75,000 lives, turned a half-million Sierra Leone’s U.N. ambassador, said in July Leoneans into refugees, and displaced half 2000: “We have always maintained that the of the country’s 4.5 million people.26 conflict is not about ideology, tribal or Faced with the RUF rebellion, the gov-

157 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION

Table 7–2. Key Events in Sierra Leone’s Civil War

Year Events

1991–95 RUF invades Sierra Leone, triggering a civil war involving government troops, civil defense militia, several private mercenary firms, and Nigerian forces. RUF controls diamond-rich areas. Army splits into factions. The private military firm Executive Outcomes (paid in cash and with diamond profits) pushes the RUF back.

1996 Elections in March won by Ahmad Tejan Kabbah;new government signs peace agreement with RUF in November calling for disarmament, demobilization, and withdrawal of foreign forces.

1997 In May, Kabbah overthrown by Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (AFRC—a disgruntled faction of the army). AFRC invites the RUF to join its regime in June; systematic murder, torture, rape, and looting follow. In October, the United Nations imposes an arms embargo.

March 1998 Nigerian troops and Sandline, a private mercenary ﬁrm, drive the AFRC/RUF from the capital of Freetown; Kabbah reinstated. By June, the United Nations narrows arms embargo to nongovernmental forces.

Late 1998 RUF regains control of diamond areas and attacks Freetown; massive human rights violations.

1999 Lomé peace accord signed (amnesty and cabinet positions for RUF and AFRC leaders); Nigeria begins troop withdrawal; U.N. Security Council establishes UNAMSIL peacekeeping force, but it is “peacekeeping on the cheap” (slow arrival of underequipped, poorly trained troops).

May 2000 RUF takes several hundred UNAMSIL troops hostage, full-scale ﬁghting resumes; British troops intervene; RUF leader Foday Sankoh captured.

July 2000 U.N. embargo imposed on any diamonds that do not have a government certiﬁcate.

November 2000 Cease-ﬁre agreement signed between the government and the RUF; cease-ﬁre largely observed but situation remains volatile.

March 2001 U.N. Security Council threatens sanctions against Liberia unless it demonstrates that it is not supporting the RUF.

July 2001 U.N. Security Council approves plans for a war crimes tribunal, but proposed budget is cut in half. Government, the United Nations, and RUF agree on diamond mining ban in Kono district.

Fall 2001 RUF continues to mine diamonds in violation of ban, using forced labor; 15,000 U.N. peacekeepers enforce cease-ﬁre, but policing the mining ban is not part of their mandate. Some 16,000 RUF and militia combatants disarmed, but lack of funding hinders reintegration of ﬁghters, and RUF retains weapons and its military structure.

SOURCE: See endnote 26.

158 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION ernment expanded its armed forces from training, weapons and related matériel, 3,000 to 14,000. This undisciplined, inef- logistical support, a staging ground for fective, ragtag army brought together ill- attacks and a safe haven for retreat and trained soldiers, militiamen from recuperation, and for public relations activ- neighboring Liberia, urban toughs, and ities.” Under Charles Taylor, Liberia has street children involved in petty theft. Mary become a major center for diamond smug- Kaldor of the University of Sussex com- gling, arms and drug trafficking, and ments about the latter that “they were money laundering.30 given an AK47 and a chance to engage in Taylor has grabbed exclusive control theft on a larger scale.” Government sol- over Liberia’s natural resources and is using diers often supplemented their meager pay- the profits from timber exports to support ments through looting and illegal mining.27 the RUF in Sierra Leone. As international Rebel forces and parts of the govern- sanctions succeed in clamping down on the ment army actually collaborated at times. trade in conflict diamonds, the importance Government soldiers by day sometimes of timber revenues is rising. Taylor receives became rebels by night. This cooperation extra-budgetary payments from a small between supposed adversaries culminated number of logging companies that get spe- in May 1997 when disgruntled government cial privileges in return and are involved in soldiers staged a coup against a government arms smuggling. One is Exotic Tropical that had been elected just several months Timber Enterprise run by Ukrainian arms earlier, and invited the RUF to join the new and diamond dealer Leonid Minin, who junta. The prospect of peace was seen as an was arrested in Italy in July 2001 for gun- unacceptable threat to their system of crim- running. But the key player in the illicit inal exploitation.28 timber trade appears to be the Oriental Sierra Leone is a comparatively small dia- Timber Co. (OTC). Controlling some 43 mond producer, but a large share of its percent of Liberia’s forests, the company gemstones are of very high quality and has been implicated in smuggling weapons therefore sought after. The RUF purchased to the RUF along its timber roads.31 arms and sustained itself through its control Liberia still has a considerable amount of of the diamond fields, but diamond wealth its original rainforest cover and a rich array has been a constant source of internal fric- of plant and animal species, including forest tion. At first, RUF fighters did the mining, elephants and the endangered Pygmy hip- but later the group relied more on forced popotamus. But the scale of the timber labor, including that of children. The trade now is such that its forests are likely to group’s annual income has been estimated be denuded in little more than a decade; at $25–125 million, though some estimates according to current plans, the pace will are considerably higher.29 actually intensify further. OTC has not only RUF diamonds enter the world market engaged in rapacious clear-cutting meth- disguised as Liberian, Guinean, and Gam- ods, it has also bulldozed through homes bian diamonds. An investigative U.N. panel and entire villages with little warning and reported in December 2000 that it had no compensation. Forest management and “found unequivocal and overwhelming evi- replanting efforts are virtually absent.32 dence that Liberia has been actively sup- The U.N. expert panel also found con- porting the RUF at all levels, in providing clusive evidence that Burkina Faso is a key

159 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION conduit in facilitating small arms shipments At first, the invading forces and their to Liberia and the RUF. In addition, arms allies resorted to outright plunder of stock- have been transferred through Senegal, piled raw materials; later they organized a Gambia, and Guinea. And Côte d’Ivoire has variety of methods to extract additional directly assisted the RUF. Weapons originat- resources. Individual soldiers work for their ed primarily in Libya, Ukraine, Slovakia, and own or their commanders’ benefit, while Bulgaria, and sometimes were shipped with local Congolese have been put to work by the help of western air cargo companies.33 Rwandan and Ugandan forces. Local miners Resource pillage has also been a key fac- were made to relinquish some of their finds tor in the conflict in the Democratic Repub- (either by force or through extortion rack- lic of Congo, a war that has killed some 1.7 ets). Foreign nationals, including Rwandan million people and displaced another 1.8 prisoners, have worked for the Rwandan million. In August 1998, Ugandan and army’s or the commanders’ benefit. Compa- Rwandan troops invaded, assisting rebel nies of questionable reputation were given groups seeking to overthrow the govern- concessions, and child labor was used in ment of Laurent Kabila. Angola, Zimbabwe, gold and diamond mining. Occupying and Namibia dispatched troops in support forces and their rebel allies have also forced of Kabila. According to one estimate, more coffee growers and palm oil producers to than 100,000 foreign troops have been sell their commodities at depressed prices.36 involved in Congo. Several of the interven- The conflict has enabled Rwanda and ing forces wanted to thwart their own rebel Uganda to become major exporters of raw groups operating from Congolese soil. materials that they do not possess at all or Rwanda, in particular, was concerned that have only in limited quantities. Looted remnants of the Hutu Interahamwe militias resources have become a major source of that had carried out a campaign of genocide their foreign exchange. Uganda, for against the Tutsi in Rwanda in 1994 were instance, is re-exporting gold, diamonds, using Congo as a staging ground for their cassiterite, coltan, coffee, tea, timber, ele- hit-and-run attacks.34 phant tusks, and medicinal barks. It now But in addition to political and military exports 10 times more gold ore than it did factors, the opportunity to plunder the five years ago. Resource pillage has allowed enormous resource wealth of Congo, in the both countries to finance their military context of lawlessness and a weak central presence. Rwanda has even set up an extra- authority, came to be a powerful incentive budgetary system for this purpose. In for continued conflict. Congo is extremely Uganda’s case, the individual enrichment of rich in minerals, gemstones, and agricultur- top military commanders and business- al raw materials such as diamonds, gold, men—including Salim Saleh, who is the coltan, niobium, cassiterite, copper, cobalt, brother of President Museveni, and James zinc, manganese, timber, coffee, tea, and Kazini, the former chief of staff of the palm oil. In addition, the country’s wildlife, Ugandan army—appears to be the main including okapis, gorillas, and elephants driving force.37 (for their tusks) attract poachers. The losers Congo’s government itself has used its have been the vast majority of Congo’s natural resources as payment in kind to buy population and the natural environment. weapons. For instance, a Chinese company (See Box 7–2.)35 was brought into a mining joint venture as

160 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION

BOX 7–2. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF RESOURCE CONFLICT IN CONGO

An expert panel of the United Nations on ille- been destroyed, undermining the livelihoods gal resource exploitation in Congo found that of the local indigenous people, the Mbuti, who okapis, gorillas, and elephants have dwindled to use the eko trees for gathering honey. small populations in several national parks. Logging companies connected to the rebels First, in 1994, came the influx of more than a have engaged in rapacious clear-cutting opera- million refugees from Rwanda, leading to wide- tions. DARA-Forest Co., for example, had been spread deforestation and wildlife poaching. In denied a logging license in early 1998, but 1998, they were joined by Rwandan and Ugan- obtained a concession in Orientale Province dan troops and their Congolese allies, rebels in 2000 from RCD-ML, a rebel group allied against the Kabila regime. The promise of rich with Uganda. It subsequently carried out log- coltan deposits and other resources also lured ging “without consideration of any of the some 10,000 miners into Kahuzi-Biega Nation- minimum acceptable rules of timber harvesting al Park and the Okapi Wildlife Reserve; both of for sustainable forest management,” according these are UNESCO World Heritage sites, but to the U.N. expert panel. Satellite images show severe environmental degradation has landed deforestation taking place at an alarming them on the organization’s list of sites in dan- rate.Although DARA-Forest failed to satisfy ger. Poaching of elephant tusks, in violation of Forest Stewardship Council procedures and an international treaty, left only 2 out of 350 evaded international requirements for timber elephant families in Kahuzi-Biega in 2000. Like- certification, the U.N. panel found that compa- wise, the number of eastern lowland gorillas nies from Belgium, Denmark, Switzerland, has been driven so low that they are threat- China, Japan, Kenya, and the United States ened by extinction. nevertheless imported the company’s timber Miners strip off the bark of eko trees to via Uganda. fashion troughs in which they flush out coltan from ore-bearing mud; thousands of trees have SOURCE: See endnote 35.

part of a deal to secure Chinese military copper-mining venture. Zimbabwe also equipment. And although the motivation received timber as barter payment for its of countries intervening in support of the military assistance.38 government seems primarily political and Responsibility for the conflict lies with strategic, Congo has nevertheless used not only regional leaders but also more dis- resource wealth as an incentive for its allies tant countries, international donors, and to stay involved. The government has private companies that have wittingly or granted several concessions, including off- unwittingly facilitated the exploitation of shore oil wells to Angola, diamond and Congolese resources by shipping and buy- cobalt to Zimbabwe, and a share of a dia- ing illegally obtained commodities. A U.N. mond mine to Namibia. Ridgepoint, a expert panel named Mombasa (in Kenya), Zimbabwean firm whose officials include Dar es Salaam (in Tanzania), and Douala Zimbabwe’s justice minister and a nephew (in Cameroon) as the main ports used. It of President Mugabe, became a partner of also listed 34 companies based in Western Congolese state-owned Gécamines in a Europe, Canada, Malaysia, India, Pakistan,

161 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION and Russia as importers of illicit Congolese allegations that senior members on the gov- minerals. Finally, the panel criticized the ernment side have sold military supplies to World Bank for turning a blind eye to the UNITA and sold diamonds on behalf of the illegal exploitation of resources; Bank staff rebels.) Both sides have succeeded in mort- either failed to question or even actively gaging the country’s natural bounty in pur- defended Uganda’s suddenly increased raw suit of a crippling conflict, severely clouding materials exports.39 prospects of future generations.42 Even if international efforts succeed in UNITA derived an estimated $3.7 bil- establishing a lasting cease-fire and a with- lion from diamond sales in 1992–98. In the drawal of foreign troops, a number of ille- early 1990s, UNITA controlled about 90 gal networks headed by military officers and percent of Angola’s diamond exports, but unscrupulous political and business leaders after some defeats its share declined to continue to control vast areas of Congo and about two thirds in 1996–97. Its revenues operate them as their personal fiefdoms. have now further declined due to addition- They have a vested interest in the continua- al territorial losses, depletion of some tion of conflict as a cover for their plunder- deposits, and the (limited) impact of U.N. ing activities.40 sanctions. It is believed that UNITA cur- Angola’s involvement in the Congo war rently sells about $80–150 million worth of is but the most recent episode in its own diamonds a year, down from as much as history of interminable conflict. Since its $600 million a decade ago. Diamond dol- independence struggle against Portugal lars purchase weapons, fuel, and food for from 1961 to 1975, Angola has been at war troops, but they have also been used to except for short interludes. At first, it was curry favor with the leaders of Burkina Faso, superpower support (and Cuban and South Togo, and the former Zaire. And a consid- African intervention) that sustained fight- erable portion of the income has apparently ing between the MPLA government and been siphoned off by corruption.43 UNITA rebels. But when the outside pow- UNITA has some of its own people ers phased out their assistance in the late involved in diamond digging, but much of 1980s, both sides turned to the country’s the mining is carried out by what in effect ample natural resources. Three cease-fires are bonded laborers deprived of even basic and peacemaking efforts failed, primarily rights and working under dangerous condi- because UNITA reneged on its commit- tions. The rebel group is also imposing a ments and returned to war.41 “tax” payable either in diamonds or in cash Angola’s oil and diamond wealth (and to from diggers working in territory under its a lesser extent its gold, coffee, timber, and control, and receives “commissions” from wildlife) has fueled arms purchases, but also diamond buyers operating in its realm.44 served to enrich a small elite on both sides. Until 1999, when De Beers decided to Angola is the world’s fifth-largest producer stop buying Angolan diamonds, UNITA of nonindustrial diamonds, and the second- had little difficulty selling its gemstones. largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa. For several years, De Beers pursued a no- While the offshore oil wells have remained questions-asked diamond-purchasing poli- in government hands, control over the dia- cy, being more interested in maintaining its mond mines has shifted back and forth. market control than in the suffering that (Despite the fierce war, there have also been “blood diamonds” perpetuate. In 1996 and

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1997, Angolan diamonds are thought to Eduardo dos Santos and his top generals have accounted for about one fifth of De rakes in considerable profits through cor- Beers’ business.45 rupt oil and weapons contracts, control Its diverse smuggling routes have appar- over the allocation of scarce foreign- ently enabled UNITA to circumvent a 1998 exchange and import licenses, and other U.N. embargo on its diamonds. Burkina opaque financial deals. For these individu- Faso, Zaire (until the fall of the Mobutu als, the war is lucrative.48 dictatorship), and Rwanda (since 1998) have served as safe havens for illicit transac- Angola’s oil and diamond wealth has tions. UNITA has been able to smuggle fueled arms purchases, but also enriched diamonds through Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco, a small elite. the Central African Republic, Namibia, South Africa, and Zambia, with or without Many of the world’s largest oil firms, the knowledge of the governments of these including Chevron, Elf Aquitaine, BP, and countries. The Zambian Ministry of Mines, ExxonMobil, operate in Angola and are for instance, provided false Certificates of planning major investments to expand Origin. The origin of UNITA gemstones their presence. Global Witness, a British was further disguised by having them pol- nongovernmental organization (NGO), ished, most likely in Israel and Ukraine.46 charges that the oil companies are complic- UNITA was similarly able to evade a it in perpetuating the war because they pro- U.N. arms embargo by relying on a variety vide the necessary revenues. Much of the of arms brokers and delivery routes and close to $900 million in “signature bonus- securing the complicity of several govern- es” that these companies were required to ments that provided false end-user certifi- pay in order to secure exploration and pro- cates for weapons. Mobutu’s Zaire, Burkina duction rights in ultra-deep offshore blocks Faso, and Togo (since 1996) were major in the late 1990s was apparently used to conduits for arms from Eastern Europe; buy arms. The consortia of companies that Zaire and the Republic of Congo were also were awarded two of these blocks, led by used to store UNITA weapons; after 1998, Elf and Exxon, include firms that have been Rwanda allowed UNITA to hold meetings involved in arms dealing.49 with arms brokers in its capital, Kigali. Since the mid-1980s, the Angolan gov- Weapons—mostly small arms, but also ernment has resorted to securing loans including major items such as tanks and from international banks by mortgaging artillery—came primarily from Bulgaria and future oil production. Much of the money other East European countries.47 from these high-interest loans has financed What diamonds are to UNITA, oil is to military spending. A substantial portion of the Angolan government. At $2–3 billion oil revenues flows directly into a foreign per year, oil revenue accounts for about 90 bank account for debt servicing instead of percent of Angolan exports and a similar being available for badly needed social share of the government’s budget. Oil expenditures. With a significant portion of money buys arms and keeps the war going: revenues being outside the formal state almost three times as much is allocated to budget—more than two thirds in 1997— the war than to social programs. Mean- financial accountability is nearly absent, and while, a small elite surrounding President opportunities for corruption are rife.50

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How Resource Extraction placed several villages and hundreds of families. Gas leaks and chemical spills caused Triggers Conflict health and environmental problems, devas- In many instances, resource extraction is tating local communities depending on itself the source of conflict. Around the agriculture and fish farming. Revenues from world, the operations of oil, mining, and the LNG facility fed rampant corruption logging companies are causing severe ten- but proved of little benefit to the local pop- sions with local populations, often indige- ulation, one third of whom live below the nous peoples. From Colombia, Ecuador, official poverty line.51 and Peru to Nigeria, Cameroon, Indonesia, Aceh is also rich in timber, minerals, and and Papua New Guinea, the same scenario fertile land. But these resources, too, were is unfolding. exploited by cronies of the Suharto dictator- Typically, these operations confiscate land ship. Land traditionally owned by indige- from local people without proper compensa- nous people was expropriated; deforestation tion. They cause an array of environmental resulting from excessive logging has caused problems by poisoning drinking water, landslides and flooding and has destroyed destroying arable land, and disrupting hunt- homes and rice paddies. “Transmigrants” ing and fishing grounds. And they introduce from Java that came to Aceh under Suharto social disruptions because they bring a heavy to set up timber, pulp, and wood-processing influx of construction workers, miners, and industries have also been a source of intense loggers. Buildings and roads that are etched resentment for the Acehnese.52 into previously inaccessible areas may bring The Aceh Freedom Movement known as boomtown conditions and attract additional GAM (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka) began in outsiders. While the burdens and disrup- 1976, but its first uprising was easily tions are all too real, the economic benefits crushed by the military. A second rebellion from resource extraction mostly accrue to in the late 1980s met with arrests, torture, outsiders: the central government, multina- and rape; it is estimated that more than a tional corporations, and assorted foreign thousand civilians were killed by the mili- investors. But when the affected communi- tary. Aceh was put under martial law from ties resist, they are often met with severe 1989 to 1998. But the fall of the Suharto government repression. regime allowed exiled GAM guerrillas to Several places in Indonesia are the site of return and popular support for indepen- some of the most intense resource-trig- dence to rise. Today, GAM is well equipped gered struggles. At the northern tip of and financed. Renewed violence has killed Sumatra, Aceh has seen increasing violence. more than 5,000 people, mostly civilians.53 Aceh is home to Arun, Indonesia’s largest GAM guerrillas have long targeted mili- gas field and the site of a huge liquefied nat- tary installations and Javanese migrants, but ural gas (LNG) plant. Operated by Exxon- ExxonMobil has now become a prime tar- Mobil and owned by the state company get. Intensifying attacks forced the compa- Pertamina, Arun generates 30 percent of ny to suspend operations from March to the country’s oil and gas export income, or July 2001, costing the government an esti- about $1.2 billion a year. The facility gave mated $100 million in lost revenue per rise to local resentments in a number of month. Military commanders responded ways. Construction in the late 1970s dis- with a counterinsurgency operation that

164 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION resulted in numerous executions and disap- the Suharto regime. Not only have many pearances and that led thousands of villages been displaced, but mine wastes Acehnese to flee their homes.54 have been dumped on downstream tribal ExxonMobil has sought to portray itself lands. In 1998, for example, some 200,000 as an innocent bystander of the violence, tons of ore were dumped into the Ajkwa but nongovernmental groups have charged river system. These mine “tailings” have the company with a “complicity of silence” turned 230 square kilometers of the river in the face of severe military abuses. Several delta into a lifeless wasteland.57 mass graves with more than 5,000 bodies have been discovered. ExxonMobil paid the Land owned by the Amungme and military to provide security for its opera- Kamoro, including a mountain sacred tions, and reports allege that the company to them, was taken over by a 1967 provided equipment to dig the mass graves agreement between Freeport and and allowed its facilities to be used by the military for torture and other activities. The the Suharto regime. International Labor Rights Fund filed a lawsuit against the company on behalf of 11 From the beginning, the local tribes Acehnese villagers, suing for complicity in opposed Freeport’s presence, but this murder, torture, kidnapping, and sexual opposition was not linked to OPM’s armed abuse by Indonesian soldiers.55 separatism until 1977. Indonesian security Some 5,000 kilometers to the east, in forces retaliated by bombing and burning Indonesia’s Irian Jaya province (also known villages. But land rights conflicts, compen- as West Papua), resource wealth has con- sation demands, human rights violations, tributed to a conflict that began even earli- and environmental damage kept triggering er. After the area was forcibly incorporated violent and nonviolent protests. As in Aceh, into Indonesia in 1961, a rebel movement the migration of Javanese migrants into known as OPM (Organisasi Papua Merde- West Papua added fuel to the conflict. ka, the Papuan Freedom Organization) Freeport has maintained close ties with the arose in the mid-1960s and advocated the armed forces. The company relies heavily establishment of a separate state. But OPM on military protection in return for provid- did not gain wider support until the 1970s, ing transportation, accommodation, and when it harnessed grievances against a funding to the troops. Financial reports for large-scale mining operation.56 the company show that it has made more U.S.-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper than $9 million available to the military & Gold Inc. is operating the Grasberg since the mid-1990s.58 mine—the world’s largest open-pit gold Since 1998, pro-independence senti- mine, which is roughly as large as the state ments have heightened due to two opposite of Vermont. Profits from the operation factors: the greater political freedom of the have been the single biggest source of tax post-Suharto era and the increasing military revenue for Indonesia. Land owned by the repression of separatist movements. The indigenous peoples, the Amungme and movement has grown to become a broad, Kamoro, including a mountain sacred to civilian-based Papuan independence move- them, was taken over without their consent ment. But Jakarta dispatched thousands of by a 1967 agreement between Freeport and additional troops after the Papuan Con-

165 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION gress declared independence in June 2000. Civilians were attacked, peaceful protests BOX 7–3. DEFORESTATION AND banned, key Papuan leaders arrested, and CONFLICT IN BORNEO access by journalists and human rights The island of Borneo is the scene of three observers severely restricted. Papuan mili- decades of conflict between indigenous tants in turn have attacked military forces peoples (the Dayak) and loggers and rub- and non-Papuan migrants. Although the ber and palm oil plantation businesses. violence is currently less intense than in The forests of Borneo are among the Aceh, the death toll since 1961 may be as largest remaining tropical forests, but high as 100,000.59 commercial logging has been eating into Under special autonomy packages being these areas at a mighty pace since the discussed, both West Papua and Aceh are 1960s, cutting down 12 percent of Kali- supposed to receive a larger share of the mantan’s forest cover in the 1980s alone revenues derived from resources—80 per- (Kalimantan is the portion of Borneo that cent of the income from mining and belongs to Indonesia). The enormous forestry industries, 30 percent from natural wealth that a small but politically well gas, and 15 percent from oil. But this may connected elite (military officers and busi- not satisfy the rebels, and these provinces nessmen close to the Suharto dictator- are too valuable for Jakarta to grant full ship) has derived stands in stark contrast independence.60 to the mortal threat that logging presents Aceh and West Papua are currently the to the Dayak, whose livelihood—food, most visible and thorniest conflict spots. shelter, clothing, and medicine—is inti- But conflicts between resource extractors mately connected to healthy forests. and local populations are on the rise across Unsustainable logging has resulted in soil much of Indonesia. The impacts on indige- degradation, silted streams, diminished nous populations are as severe as those on wildlife and biodiversity, and unprecedent- the natural environment. (See Box 7–3.)61 ed floods and droughts. In Bougainville (an island that is part of The government-subsidized “transmi- Papua New Guinea), similar issues led to a gration” of unemployed people from Java 12-year conflict. The world’s largest open- and Madura islands to Kalimantan provid- pit copper mine, owned by London-based ed cheap labor for clearing forests and mining giant Rio Tinto, started operating converting the land to commercial rubber at Panguna in 1972. But the loss of land and palm oil plantations. But the Dayak and other impacts severely affected the sub- saw the migrants as the agent of their sistence agriculture and the hunting and growing marginalization; clashes between gathering activities of the area’s inhabitants. the two groups grew in frequency and Mine tailings and other pollutants damaged violence. By early 1997, a low-level insur- about one fifth the total land area, decimat- gency drew Indonesian troops. Military ed harvests of food crops and cash crops repression succeeded in imposing only a like cocoa and bananas, contaminated temporary calm, with fighting erupting rivers, and depleted fish stocks. The mine again and again. Thousands have been also led to major social disruptions, includ- killed, and tens of thousands displaced. ing rising crime.62 SOURCE: See endnote 61. The Panguna mine produced up to $500

166 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION million worth of copper, gold, and silver extensive mangrove forests and providing per year. But Bougainvilleans received next habitat for a number of unique plant and to nothing, and their concerns were animal species. Poor industry practices such ignored. In 1988, they began a sabotage as constant flaring of natural gas, along with campaign that quickly developed into guer- frequent oil spills from antiquated pipelines rilla war. The mine fell to the rebels and was and leaks from toxic waste pits, have exact- closed in May 1989. Because income from ed a heavy toll on soil, vegetation, water, Panguna was critical—Papua New Guinea air, and human health. Local communities lost 40 percent of its foreign-exchange complain of respiratory problems, skin rash- earnings and a large portion of government es, tumors, gastrointestinal problems, and income—widespread social and political cancers. They have seen a drastic decline in unrest followed.63 the fish catch and agricultural yields.65 Bougainville declared independence in Throughout the 1990s, local communi- May 1990, but was not recognized interna- ties staged protests, often directed against tionally. Unable to recapture the mine and multinational oil companies in Nigeria—pri- defeat the rebels, the government saw itself marily Royal Dutch/Shell as the largest pro- compelled to agree to peace negotiations. ducer, but also Chevron, Mobil, France’s Still, a new attempt to invade the island was Elf, and Italy’s Agip. The Ogoni are one of organized in 1996. Prime Minister Julius the Niger Delta communities that gained Chan offered $36 million in World Bank world attention for their cause. The Move- funds to the private military firm Sandline ment for the Survival of the Ogoni People International, but senior army officers— (MOSOP) organized mass protests that suc- incensed that their own budget was cut— ceeded in shutting down Shell operations in forced Chan to resign and cancel the Ogoni territory in 1993. The military dicta- Sandline contract. A cease-fire was signed torship—which got 80 percent of its rev- and a small peacekeeping force was enues from oil—responded with a campaign deployed in 1998. In June 2001, the gov- of violence and intimidation, and instigated ernment and the rebels agreed in principle various ethnic groups in the delta to attack that Bougainville would gain some autono- each other. Some 2,000 Ogoni were killed my and an eventual referendum on inde- and 80,000 uprooted; MOSOP leaders pendence. A resolution to the conflict is were detained or forced to flee, and in now in sight, after hundreds, and possibly October 1995, the regime executed Ken thousands, of deaths.64 Saro-Wiwa, MOSOP’s well-known spokes- In Nigeria, one of the world’s leading man, and eight other leaders.66 petroleum producers, oil development has Aided by weak enforcement policies and enriched a tiny minority and foreign oil oppressive government, the oil companies companies, but it has translated into envi- have failed to abide by Nigeria’s environ- ronmental devastation, health problems, mental laws and have largely evaded paying and impoverishment for the inhabitants of compensation to delta communities for any the oil-producing areas that have tradition- damages. And although corporate represen- ally lived from fishing, agriculture, and tatives deny knowledge of the govern- palm oil production. The Niger Delta, ment’s repressive tactics, they frequently where oil production is taking place, forms summon the notoriously abusive security Africa’s largest wetlands area, harboring forces to intervene against unarmed pro-

167 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION testers. Chevron helicopters were reported- Sanctions, Certification ly used in a 1998 assault against protesters. Elf and Agip are alleged to have instigated Systems, and Economic deadly attacks against, respectively, female Diversification protesters and a village that refused to let oil drilling go forward. Shell helped finance Resource-related conflicts have been raging and arm a local paramilitary force in in large part because of a business-as-usual Ogoniland. Exposed to increasingly unfa- approach by governments and corpora- vorable world opinion, Shell undertook a tions. But prodded by NGOs, the situation major review of its activities and attitudes is beginning to change. toward Niger Delta communities, but as a Confronted with unending conflicts in 1999 Human Rights Watch report com- Sierra Leone, Angola, and Congo that ments, the company’s actual performance threaten to spiral out of control, the U.N. on the ground will be the judge of whether Security Council has increasingly examined this amounts to more than changed the role of resources in perpetuating these rhetoric.67 wars. It imposed a number of embargoes on The death of military dictator Sani the illicit diamond trade and on the pur- Abacha in June 1998 allowed a transition to chases of arms, equipment, and fuel paid for an elected government in 1999. According with diamond money. (See Table 7–3.) to Human Rights Watch, this brought a These efforts are only a beginning. “significant relaxation in the unprecedented Observers from NGOs and expert U.N. repression...inflicted on the Nigerian peo- panels have called for similar measures that ple.” A Human Rights Commission is would cover additional types of resources. investigating cases going as far back as But governments have blocked action in 1965, and more than 10,000 petitions have some cases; for instance, France and China, been brought before it. Although western the two leading importers of timber from media attention has faded, protests and Liberia, have opposed U.N. sanctions occupations of oil facilities surged after against Liberian timber exports.69 Abacha’s death. The government withdrew It has also become painfully obvious that the feared Internal Security Task Force existing sanctions are being violated by from Ogoniland, but human rights abuses unscrupulous commodities producers, against those attempting to raise grievances traders, bankers, and governments. There is in the oil-producing areas continue never- an urgent need to step up international theless. In this sense, at least, conditions in efforts to monitor compliance with sanc- the delta have changed little.68 tions and to improve the capacity to enforce While democratization efforts in Nige- embargoes and investigate violations so that ria, Indonesia, and elsewhere give greater traffickers can no longer operate with hope that these conflicts can be resolved, far impunity.70 more needs to happen to bolster the human Growing energy is being directed at and development rights of affected commu- efforts to make it more difficult for nities. Greater awareness and scrutiny are resources gained through conflict to be sold also needed in major consuming countries on world markets. By far the most attention if the link between resources and repression has gone to the diamond industry. The gov- is to be broken. ernments of Sierra Leone, Angola, and the

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Table 7–3. Resource Conﬂicts and United Nations Sanctions

Date U.N. Security Council Action

November 1992 Arms embargo against Liberia. September 1993 Embargo on deliveries of arms, military equipment, and fuel to Angola’s UNITA rebels after their rejection of the 1992 election results. August 1997 Additional sanctions against UNITA: freezing of bank accounts; prohibiting foreign travel by senior UNITA personnel; closing of UNITA offices abroad. October 1997 Embargo on arms and oil supplies to Sierra Leone; travel ban on members of military junta (oil embargo terminated in March 1998). June 1998 Arms embargo and travel ban on anti-government forces in Sierra Leone. June 1998 Embargo on direct and indirect import of Angolan diamonds that have not been approved under an Angolan government certificate-of-origin regime. May 1999 Panel established to investigate violations of sanctions against UNITA. July 2000 Embargo on direct and indirect import of rough diamonds from Sierra Leone; following establishment of a new monitoring regime, embargo was narrowed to nonofficial exports in October 2000. March 2001 Demand that Liberia cease financial and military support for RUF, and cease imports of Sierra Leonean rough diamonds without an official certificate of origin; embargo on arms deliveries to Liberia and travel ban against its political and military leaders; threat of embargo against Liberian diamond exports unless Liberia can show that it is not supporting RUF.

SOURCE: See endnote 69.

Democratic Republic of Congo are backing monds are still smuggled out of Angola schemes under which only diamonds with every day. Lax government controls in the proper documentation are considered legal. major diamond trading and cutting centers All gems are to be accompanied by certifi- (Belgium, Switzerland, the United King- cates of origin, whose digital “fingerprint” dom, Israel, and others) and the opaque, is shared with authorities in importing unaccountable nature of the diamond countries. While polished diamonds cannot industry are also major obstacles in the be traced to their origin, a recent techno- struggle to root out conflict diamonds. A logical breakthrough allows some high-tech March 2000 U.N. investigative report on sleuthing to pinpoint the source of rough how sanctions against UNITA were cir- stones by comparing trace amounts of cumvented concluded that Belgian authori- impurities in the diamonds.71 ties “failed to establish an effective import But a certificate-of-origin system can be identification regime” or to effectively undermined by poor enforcement and cir- “monitor the activities of suspect brokers, cumvented by intricate international smug- dealers and traders.” The Belgian and gling networks. A U.N. report in October British governments have now expressed 2001 found that $1 million worth of dia- determination to crack down on conflict

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diamonds. Efforts are also continuing in back to the forest where the trees were the United States, the largest importer of felled. A comparable system of accounting diamonds, to ban imports of illegally mined could determine whether timber had been diamonds. Although the industry initially produced in conflict situations.74 threw its support behind a bill with weak It is clear that a number of businesses— standards and loopholes, it now supports oil and mining companies, trading firms, more stringent legislation introduced in airlines and shipping companies, manufac- both chambers of the U.S. Congress.72 turers, and banks—carry some responsibility for the events that have triggered So far, western governments have been campaigns against blood diamonds and all too ready to turn a blind eye in order other conflict resources. This responsibility to protect the interests of their own ranges from an active role (in which com- corporations. panies are directly and knowingly involved in illicit resource exploitation), to a silent In recognition of the ease with which complicity (in which firms do business with country-by-country diamond certification repressive regimes or rebel groups because schemes can be evaded, support has been of lucrative contracts), to a passive growing for establishing a standardized “enabling” role (in which few questions are global certification scheme. Since May asked about the origin of raw materials or 2000, representatives from some 38 about money being laundered). nations, the diamond industry, and a num- International embargoes and U.N. ber of NGOs have conducted negotiations reports have begun to create greater trans- (referred to as the Kimberley Process) to parency. NGO campaigns have tugged at develop an international system. The Kim- the cloak of complicity through investigative berley controls were expected to be final- reports and by “naming and shaming” spe- ized and presented to the U.N. General cific corporations, in an effort to compel Assembly by December 2001. But NGOs them to do business more ethically or to ter- have complained of backtracking and minate their operations in certain locations. stalling maneuvers by some governments, Such campaigns have been most potent in and they were worried that instead of a the case of companies that sell highly visible binding and credible system, a voluntary consumer products or whose corporate one might emerge. 73 logos and slogans are familiar to millions.75 Similar measures may be needed for At the end of the 1990s, the diamond other conflict resources. A certification sys- industry was hit by a wave of bad publicity tem for timber, for example, could build on and faced the threat of consumer boycotts. existing efforts by the Forest Stewardship De Beers, the industry’s monopolist, was Council (FSC) to ascertain whether lumber sufficiently embarrassed by London-based is being produced in a sustainable manner. NGO Global Witness, which revealed that The FSC effort, initiated in 1993, entails the company had knowingly purchased dia- independent audits to verify compliance monds from Angola’s UNITA rebels, that it with a series of requirements. Of particular adopted a more responsible policy and interest is its “chain-of-custody” certifica- urged the rest of the industry to follow suit. tion, which seeks to trace the lumber or fur- Similarly, when the role of coltan in the niture on consumer store shelves all the way Congo war become more widely known,

170 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION consumer electronics companies scrambled It has become clear that the small arms to avoid the kind of negative publicity that plague can be tackled successfully only with the diamond industry had endured. Com- broad international cooperation. A U.N. panies like Ericsson, Nokia, Motorola, conference on small arms was held in July Compaq, and Intel suddenly scrutinized 2001, with the expectation of launching their supply chains and put pressure on efforts to conclude international agreements mineral processing firms to stop purchasing on marking and tracing weapons, regulating illegally mined coltan from Congo. The arms brokers, and establishing stricter Belgian airline Sabena stopped its coltan export criteria. The opposition of a few gov- shipments to Europe.76 ernments, most notably the United States, There is growing awareness that natural nearly derailed the conference, however. resources will continue to fuel deadly con- The Bush administration opposed a number flicts as long as consumer societies import of measures, including restrictions on civil- and use materials irrespective of where they ian ownership of such weapons, prohibitions originate and under what conditions they against sales to nongovernmental entities were produced. Support is growing for the such as rebel forces, and any limitations on idea that companies need to adopt more the legal trade. Although the outcome was a ethical ways of doing business. Shareholder low-common-denominator action program, activism and campaigns for ethical investing it nevertheless provides a basis for stepped- can help achieve these goals. But it is clear up efforts to pursue post-conflict small arms that activities to date are only a beginning. disarmament, to destroy surplus and illegal Governments and international organiza- arms, to demobilize soldiers and reintegrate tions will need to work hard to create them into civil society, and, most important, greater transparency in the dealings of to improve transparency and greater knowl- financial and other companies. So far, west- edge about transfers.79 ern governments have been all too ready to Experience to date also provides a strong turn a blind eye in order to protect the case for improving peacekeeping capabili- interests of their own corporations.77 ties. The conflicts in Angola and Sierra Another priority area for action concerns Leone have attracted two of the largest the massive proliferation of small arms. As U.N. peacekeeping efforts, and the Securi- awareness of the impact of small arms in ty Council has considered the feasibility of a resource-related conflicts and other settings large presence in Congo. But U.N. efforts has grown, national governments, regional confront a number of severe handicaps. organizations, and the United Nations have The first concerns the warring parties. They become more active in seeking ways to may agree to cease-fires or even peace check the spread of these weapons, particu- agreements as an expedient move that larly illegal transfers. Especially noteworthy allows them to maneuver for advantage, is a moratorium on the trade and manufac- only to return to violence at an opportune ture of such weapons in West Africa, which moment. was signed in October 1998 and renewed There are also systemic weaknesses in for another three years in 2001. Since West U.N. peacekeeping. Since there is no stand- Africa is awash in small arms, a U.N.-assisting peacekeeping force, the United Nations ed effort is also being made to collect relies on national governments to make weapons already in circulation.78 personnel and equipment available. Typical-

171 State of the World 2002 BREAKING THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES AND REPRESSION ly, it takes several months for a mission to conflict rather than preventing it. Preven- reach its authorized deployment strength. tion is not an easy task, and there is no sil- The numbers of peacekeepers are often ver bullet. Promoting democratization, inadequate to the task, and many of them justice, and greater respect for human rights are ill equipped and poorly trained. Nation- are key tasks, along with efforts to reduce al contingents frequently do not work the impunity with which some govern- together well and sometimes fail to adhere ments and rebel groups engage in extreme to the mission’s mandate.80 violence. Another challenge is to facilitate Fixing the deficiencies inherent in the the diversification of the economy away current approach to peacekeeping would from a strong dependence on primary com- not only help brighten the chances of suc- modities to a broader mix of activities. cess in ending ongoing resource-based con- The quest for sustainable development flicts, it would probably also constitute that is the focus of the Johannesburg con- something of a deterrent to future resource ference is of crucial importance in this con- looters. An effective peacekeeping system text. Investing in human development, that deploys well-trained and well-equipped improving health and education services, troops in a timely fashion and that is able to and providing adequate jobs and opportu- protect victims instead of adopting a false nities for social and economic advancement neutrality would make a significant differ- will go a long way toward reducing the risk ence. An effective system would provide that a country’s natural resource endow- capacities to wrest control of resource-rich ment will become its undoing. This is an areas that are being illegally exploited, investment that needs to be made not only intercept smuggling routes, enforce peace by every government but also by the World agreements, and facilitate disarmament and Bank and other multilateral development demobilization of combatants. To establish agencies that have generously funded oil, such a system, governments must be pre- mining, and logging projects. It must also pared to invest adequate money, effort, and be a priority for the rich nations that have political support. for so long benefited from cheap raw mate- The policies discussed here are largely rial supplies while turning a blind eye to the concerned with reacting to resource-based destruction at their source.

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WORLD SUMMIT PRIORITIES ON CONFLICT

➣ Develop strong global certification systems for diamonds, timber, and other resources to improve ability to ascertain origins of commodities and to screen out those produced and traded illicitly in conflict areas. ➣ Secure better compliance with U.N. sanctions against illicit resource trafficking by improving the capacity of the United Nations, regional and international organizations, and governments to monitor and enforce embargoes. ➣ Increase the transparency and accountability of oil, mining, and logging corporations in areas of conflict, of trading and shipping companies, and of banks and other financial institutions. Develop strong codes of conduct for corporations and brokers. ➣ Reduce the availability of small arms by establishing stricter national export criteria, regulating arms brokers, marking and tracing weapons, and improving collection of surplus arms. ➣ Promote democratization and greater respect for human rights, particularly the rights of indigenous and minority groups. ➣ Support diversification of economies away from a heavy dependence on a handful of primary commodities. ➣ Increase consumer awareness of the connections between resource exploitation and conflict.

173 Chapter 8

Reshaping Global Governance Hilary French

In late July 2001, tens of thousands of pro- attacks, scores of meetings and events were testers gathered in the streets of the ancient cancelled, including the annual meetings of port city of Genoa, Italy, while the Group of the World Bank and the International Mon- Eight major economic powers held its etary Fund (IMF) in Washington in late annual summit meeting. These demonstra- September, as well as the public demonstrations were the latest in what has become a tions that had been expected to accompany steady stream of massive public protests them. Although the terrorists had struck at related to globalization—a much-used the heart of the global economy by target- though ill-defined term that covers the ing the World Trade Center, the leaders of broad range of societal transformations that anti-globalization protests moved quickly have accompanied the rapid growth in to distance themselves from the terrorist international trade and investment in recent attacks and to express their sympathy for years, as well as the virtual shrinking of the the victims.2 planet due to computers, cell phones, and At the same time, the horror of the other accoutrements of the information events of September 11th has caused people age. Less than two months later, the world everywhere to contemplate the root watched in horror as hijacked airplanes causes of the disaster. Not all of the terror- crashed into the World Trade Center and ists who hijacked the airplanes were them- the Pentagon, causing some 5,000 deaths selves impoverished. But the growing gap and seemingly reordering the world’s pre- between the rich and the poor in many occupations and priorities in the course of a regions and worldwide and the persistence few hours. Suddenly, globalization protests of extreme poverty among more than a bil- were off the front pages, and the world’s lion people have undoubtedly helped to war on terrorism dominated headlines.1 create a climate that is ripe for fundamen- In the days following the terrorist talism and extremism. As Klaus Töpfer, State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

Executive Director of the U.N. Environ- one part of the Rio story. Perhaps even more ment Programme (UNEP), recently put significant was the international mobilization it: “When people are denied access to clean it brought about, as tens of thousands of water, soil, and air to meet their basic people from around the world convened to human needs, we see the rise of poverty, express their concern for the fate of the plan- ill-health and a sense of hopelessness. Des- et, including heads of state, indigenous peo- perate people can resort to desperate ples, local officials, business representatives, solutions.”3 environmental activists, and journalists.5 Although the globalization trends of With the world now preparing for the recent years enriched economic elites and World Summit on Sustainable Develop- added to the ranks of the global middle ment in Johannesburg in September 2002, class in some countries, they also bypassed this is an appropriate time to assess the billions of destitute people and in some Earth Summit’s legacy. (See also Chapter cases directly undermined the welfare of 1.) Although international environmental marginalized people by destroying the negotiations have mostly plodded along at a ecological and social fabric that has formed snail-like pace in the decade since Rio, the the backbone of traditional, subsistence- world at large has been changing rapidly. based societies. Reorienting our current Within a few years of the Earth Summit, the globalization path—one of the primary underlying forces of globalization were goals of massive public protests of recent sweeping the world at breakneck speed. years—may thus turn out to be a key pillar As the Rio conference wound down, the in any successful long-term strategy against Uruguay Round of world trade negotia- terrorism.4 tions was gathering force, paving the way The term globalization was not in wide- for the creation of the World Trade Organi- spread use in June 1992 at the U.N. Con- zation (WTO) at the beginning of 1995. ference on Environment and Development, The final text of the Uruguay Round agree- better known as the Rio Earth Summit. But ment was over 26,000 pages long (mainly in retrospect, that meeting can be seen as a detailed tariff and services schedules) and process that was at least partially aimed at covered an enormous array of issues, reshaping the global economy to make it including agriculture, intellectual property less environmentally harmful and more rights, investment, and services. In compar- socially equitable—the essence of the con- ison, the 273-page Agenda 21 reads like a cept of sustainable development and some- brief call to action. The Uruguay Round thing that has more recently been among negotiators made little effort to incorporate the demands of demonstrators in the streets. the Rio commitments into their delibera- The list of formal results from the Rio tions. Indeed, many WTO provisions con- conference was substantial, including major tradict the spirit and in some cases arguably new international treaties on climate change even the letter of the Rio accords.6 and the loss of biological diversity as well as But the events of September 11, 2001, Agenda 21, a lengthy action plan for achiev- put a monkey wrench into what had ing sustainable development that covers an seemed to be an almost inexorable march exhaustive set of issues—from agriculture toward a globalized world. International and chemicals to poverty and institutional travel and tourism plummeted in the wake reform. But formal agreements were only of the terrorist attacks, and the global econ-

175 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE omy was in a dangerously precarious state. to strengthen international environmental Even before September 11th, public unease governance by creating a World Environ- about globalization had been growing fast, ment Organization to be the “institutional as evidenced by the strength of the anti- and legal counterpart” of the WTO. Some globalization protest movement. At the nine months later, as anti-globalization pro- root of this rising public concern are some testors dramatically took to the streets of basic questions: What rules govern today’s Seattle, Washington, during a WTO minis- increasingly global economy? Who sets terial meeting, Washington Post editorial them? And whose interests do they serve?7 writers came to a similar conclusion, arguing The growing power of global economic that “Trade these days is so entwined with institutions such as the WTO juxtaposed social issues that selective internationalism is against the relative weakness of internation- decreasingly possible. The health of the al institutions charged with environmental WTO may turn out to require something protection and social welfare is leading to a like a world environment organization.”9 persistent imbalance in today’s emerging It is ironic that some of the staunchest structures of global governance. And as advocates of building stronger international globalization is pushing decisionmaking up environmental governance structures have to the international level on more and more emerged from the community of trade pol- issues, many people around the world icy experts rather than environmental ones. worry that democracy and accountability And some skepticism is warranted, as argu- are being lost in the process. ments in favor of creating a World Environ- Despite these dilemmas, collaborative ment Organization are often used to deflect action at the international level is essential if attention from the need to overhaul WTO we are to successfully address the debilitat- rules. But though the message may have ing environmental and social trends that are come from unusual quarters, it is nonethe- undermining prospects for a livable and less fundamentally on target: in this age of secure world. The Johannesburg Summit globalization, there is a crying need for offers us an opportunity to create new, some environmental rules of the road for more transparent global governance struc- the global economy, and it is environmental tures that can protect the ecological integri- institutions rather than economic ones that ty of the planet while improving the quality are best equipped to provide them. of life of the more than 6 billion people Determining how to make international who currently inhabit it.8 environmental governance work better requires understanding the nature of the Reinvigorating International current system. The number of environ- Environmental Governance mental treaties has soared over the last few decades. UNEP estimates that there are In March 1999, the World Trade Organiza- now over 500 international treaties and tion convened a high-level symposium to other agreements related to the environ- examine the connections between trade and ment, more than 300 of which have been environmental policymaking. When Direc- agreed to since the first U.N. conference on tor-General Renato Ruggiero spoke, the the environment was held in Stockholm in most notable remarks he made focused not 1972, and 41 of which UNEP considers on international trade rules but on the need “core environmental conventions.” But

176 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE international environmental governance has the establishment of tree plantations to to some degree become a victim of its own absorb carbon dioxide were included in the success. As the number of treaties has Kyoto Protocol on climate change with lit- climbed, problems of duplication, fragmen- tle regard for the impact of uniform stands tation, and lack of coordination have arisen on biological diversity, despite the fact that that are undermining the efficacy of the sys- most of the countries that are members of tem as a whole.10 the Kyoto Protocol are also parties to the Each environmental treaty creates its Convention on Biological Diversity own mini-institutional machinery, includ- (CBD.)12 ing annual meetings of the treaty members (called Conferences of the Parties) as well as In this age of globalization, there is a small offices called secretariats that are crying need for some environmental charged with overseeing treaty implementa- rules of the road for the global economy. tion. The secretariats and the various meetings of treaty members are scattered around More fundamental than problems of the world, causing international environ- overlap and coordination are weaknesses in mental diplomacy to at times resemble a the individual agreements themselves. Most moving circus. The growing number of environmental treaties contain few specific environmental treaties has caused the sheer targets and timetables, and provisions for number of international meetings and monitoring and enforcement are generally negotiating sessions to climb, straining the weak to nonexistent. Nonetheless, negotia- ability of environmental diplomats, non- tors have made substantial headway since governmental organizations (NGOs), and the Earth Summit in fleshing out the two other interested parties to keep pace. This major conventions that were concluded proliferation of international meetings there, those on climate change (see Chapter poses a particular challenge for developing 2) and biological diversity. They have also countries, who generally have only a few reached agreement on four other interna- diplomats available to cover the sprawling tional treaties that grew out of Rio—on international environmental agenda.11 combating desertification, managing One result of fragmentation in the cur- migratory fish stocks, controlling trade in rent system of international environmental hazardous chemicals and pesticides, and governance is that the provisions of differ- phasing out persistent organic pollutants. ent environmental conventions sometimes (See Table 8–1 and Chapter 4.)13 act at cross-purposes. The negotiations that Perhaps most notably, in late 1997 led to the Montreal Protocol on ozone nations forged the Kyoto Protocol under depletion, for instance, paid little heed to the rubric of the climate change convention the complex interconnections between of 1992, creating binding limits on carbon ozone depletion and climate change. One emissions for the first time. But the post- of the perverse results of this was the devel- Kyoto years have been marred by continu- opment of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as ing disagreements among the signatories to common substitutes for ozone-depleting the protocol, particularly between the Unit- chlorofluorocarbons, despite the fact that ed States and the European Union (EU), HFCs are potent greenhouse gases. More about how and even whether its provisions recently, provisions aimed at encouraging should be implemented. Despite the contin-

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Table 8–1.The Rio Conventions—A Progress Report

Convention on Biological Diversity, 1992 Status: 168 signatories, 182 parties; in force since 1993 Accomplishments: • Provides broad guidelines for the conservation of biodiversity at the national level and requires participating countries to formulate national biodiversity strategies • Recognizes national sovereignty over biological resources and affirms the principle of prior informed consent (PIC) before resources may be transferred out of a country • Stipulates that biodiversity use must be sustainable and resulting benefits must be equitably shared between source country and receiving country • Global Environment Facility (GEF) funding has channeled $1.02 billion into biodiversity projects in 120 developing countries Challenges: • Biodiversity is difficult to measure and data are hard to collect • Of 182 parties, only about 70 countries have submitted National Strategies • Most resources have gone into creating national reports, yet still only 54 countries had met the May 2001 deadline for submitting them • Biosafety Protocol of 2000 allows governments to choose whether to allow imports of products containing genetically modified organisms, but it has so far only been ratified by 7 of the 50 states required for it to enter into force UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992 Status: 165 signatories, 186 parties; in force since 1994 Accomplishments: • Annex I countries (24 industrial nations, the European Union, and 14 countries with economies in transition) agree to adopt policies to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by 2000 • Annex II countries (24 industrial countries and the European Union) agree to provide financial resources for technology transfer • Non-Annex I parties (developing countries) are eligible for GEF funding to meet national reporting requirements • GEF has funneled $884 million into climate change projects and leveraged an additional $4.9 billion from recipient governments and other organizations • 1997 Kyoto Protocol requires Annex I countries to reduce overall emissions by 5.2 percent from 1990 levels by 2012 Challenges: • Protocol remains contentious, with recent negotiations leaving many dissatisfied; 40 states have ratified the protocol, but to come into force, it requires ratification by at least 55 nations, including Annex I parties representing 55 percent of greenhouse gas emissions • Emissions continue to rise in industrial countries, and the United States, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has declined to participate in the Kyoto Protocol Convention to Combat Desertification, 1994 Status: 115 signatories, 176 parties; in force since 1996 Accomplishments: • Flexible structure creates a network of four regions: Africa, Asia, Latin America and Caribbean, and Northern Mediterranean; each has the power to design and implement a plan tailored to local needs • Increasing number of national, subregional, and regional action plans have been submitted, and implementation has begun in some areas • Approximately 175 reports have been filed from donors as well as countries afflicted by desertification

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Table 8–1. (continued)

Challenges: • Projects are not eligible for GEF funding and treaty stipulates that most funds are to come from the countries themselves, leaving many projects without stable financing • Commitments on the part of both developing and industrial countries are vague, leaving ample room for inaction UN Agreement Relating to the Conservation and Management of Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks, 1995 Status: 59 signatories, 29 parties; not in force (requires 1 more ratification) Accomplishments: • Advocates a cooperative, precautionary approach to the management and conservation of relevant fish stocks • Requires coastal states and those fishing in international waters to adopt national measures to restore stocks to levels capable of producing maximum sustainable yields • Encourages regional planning and information exchange, recognizes the needs of developing states and subsistence fishers, and contains provisions on pollution control, related ecosystems, and domestic monitoring and compliance • Includes provisions allowing parties to board and inspect vessels of other parties on the high seas in order to verify compliance Challenges: • Only 12 of the top 20 fishing nations have signed and just 4 have ratified, weakening it when it does enter into force Rotterdam Convention on the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade, 1998 Status: 73 signatories, 16 parties; not in force (requires 34 more ratifications) Accomplishments: • Exporting states must receive explicit permission from importing state before shipments of 27 types of restricted substances may take place • Details safety and labeling requirements for the handling of these substances • States refusing shipments containing a chemical must halt domestic production of the substance, avoiding conflict with trade rules Challenges: • Not yet in force, but builds on existing voluntary PIC procedures, which many states continue to honor until the treaty becomes binding • Developing countries often lack the infrastructure and capacity for implementation • Excludes many categories of substances, such as pharmaceuticals, narcotics, radioactive materials, and food products Stockholm Treaty on Persistent Organic Pollutants, 2000 Status: 105 signatories, 2 parties; not in force (requires 48 more ratifications) Accomplishments: • Regulates the production and use of 12 persistent, toxic substances; the 9 Annex A chemicals are slated for elimination, while Annex B lists chemicals such as DDT that are subject to restricted use • Mandates the identification and elimination of stockpiles, products, and wastes containing persistent organic pollutants Challenges: • Numerous exemptions exist, including for articles manufactured or in use before the convention enters into force and a conditional renewable 10-year exemption for hexa- chlorobenzene and DDT • Funding provisions are vague, delegating authority to GEF while acknowledging that the existing GEF mandate and resources limit its ability to serve this function

SOURCE: See endnote 13.

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uing defiant opposition of the U.S. govern- depletion, suggests that the agreement will ment to the terms of Kyoto Protocol, 178 then be strengthened over time as tech- other nations jointly agreed at a negotiating nologies advance, as scientific understand- session in Bonn in July 2001 to a range of ing of the problem deepens, and as public key provisions that filled in all-important support for action grows. If the rest of the missing details of the pact. (As this book world forges ahead with putting the Kyoto went to press, governments were meeting Protocol into practice as the United States once again on climate change in Marrakesh, looks on from the sidelines, many in the Morocco, with the outcome not yet clear.)14 U.S. business community are likely to conclude that they are at a disadvantage Most environmental treaties lack clear because they do not have a seat at the table criteria for monitoring and measuring where key decisions are being made about effectiveness. the future of the world’s energy system. An industry about-face combined with grow- The moment the deal was struck in ing public pressure might then pave the way Bonn was a euphoric one for the negotia- for the United States to join in the accord. tors and NGO activists who had labored so (See Chapter 2.)16 long and hard to breathe life into the Kyoto Like the climate change treaty, the Con- Protocol—and for good reason, given the vention on Biological Diversity has also had collapse of the negotiations eight months a somewhat checkered history since Rio. earlier and the U.S. government’s intransi- The most tangible outcome of the conven- gence in the intervening period. But it is tion so far has been the Cartagena Protocol sobering to note that the commitments on Biosafety. This agreement aims to regu- contained in the protocol represent just a late international trade in genetically modi- small first step down what is sure to be a fied agricultural commodities by putting in long and challenging road. Under the place a system known as prior informed con- terms of the Kyoto agreement, 38 industri- sent, in which importing countries must be al countries agreed to collectively reduce informed of and explicitly grant their their annual greenhouse gas emissions to approval before shipments of genetically 6–8 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. modified commodities can proceed. Negoti- Scientists estimate that emissions cuts on ations on the protocol finished successfully the order of 60–80 percent will ultimately in January 2000, but so far it has been rati- be required to achieve the convention’s fied by only 7 of the 50 countries that must overarching objective of stabilizing green- do so in order for it to come into force.17 house gas concentrations in the atmosphere In addition to bringing the biosafety at a level that will prevent dangerous inter- protocol into operation, it is also important ference in the climate system.15 that countries move ahead with other Although the Kyoto Protocol is far from efforts to implement and strengthen the perfect, the priority now is for countries to CBD. Governments have been slow to press ahead with ratifying it, with the goal develop the national-level strategies and of bringing the agreement into force by the action plans for biodiversity preservation time of the Johannesburg Summit. Experi- that are called for under the convention, ence with other environmental treaties, par- and the treaty itself suffers from a lack of ticularly the Montreal Protocol on ozone clear targets, timetables, and ways to meas-

180 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE ure progress and trends. Further initiatives of plant breeders and biotechnology com- are needed to protect endangered ecosys- panies. The CBD, on the other hand, tems, in part by developing specific provi- affirms that any economic benefits of com- sions and initiatives related to major causes mercializing seeds, pharmaceuticals, and of ecological disruption, such as the intro- other products based on indigenous knowl- duction of invasive species.18 edge gained over thousands of years should The CBD’s lack of performance indica- be shared with the farmers and communi- tors highlights a broader set of problems ties that developed them in the first place.21 with many environmental treaties: most of Although no country has thus far lodged them lack clear criteria for monitoring and a formal WTO challenge against the provi- measuring effectiveness. Environmental sions of a multilateral environmental agree- treaties are also generally characterized by ment, arguments about WTO consistency nonbinding and voluntary dispute resolu- often arise during environmental treaty tion procedures for cases where countries negotiations. These tensions were much in are suspected of violating a treaty’s rules, in evidence during the negotiations on the striking contrast to the WTO’s system of biosafety protocol, which endorses the need binding rulings that are ultimately enforce- to sometimes take precautionary steps to able by trade sanctions.19 prevent the possibility of irreversible harm, The divergences in specificity and even in the face of scientific uncertainty. The enforceability between environmental United States has resisted incorporating this treaties and WTO rules become a particular “precautionary principle” into the biosafety problem in cases where the two bodies of protocol and other international agree- international law contradict one another. ments, preferring the WTO’s insistence that Several environmental treaties, including food safety policies and a range of other the Montreal Protocol, the Convention on standards related to human, animal, or plant International Trade in Endangered Species health be based on scientific evidence. of Wild Fauna and Flora, and the recently Although there is broad agreement that sci- agreed biosafety protocol contain provisions ence should inform the regulatory process, that arguably are at odds with WTO rules. conflicts can arise in cases where a clear sci- These inconsistencies stem from different entific consensus does not yet exist about philosophical underpinnings: environmen- the extent of the harm posed by a specific tal treaties often aim to limit certain ecolog- threat or substance, a common predicament ically harmful forms of commerce, such as in environmental policymaking.22 trade in endangered species and hazardous One way to respond to the power imbal- wastes, whereas the WTO is in the business ance between the more enforceable rules of of tearing down obstacles to the flow of the WTO and comparatively weak environ- goods across international borders.20 mental treaties would be to give the latter One of the more pronounced contradic- sanctioning powers similar to WTO’s. A few tions is the divergence between the intellec- environmentally related treaties are begin- tual property rights stipulations of the ning to do just that. The Law of the Sea WTO and those of the Convention on Bio- convention, for example, created an Inter- logical Diversity. The WTO requires coun- national Tribunal as one of several possible tries to put in place strict systems for vehicles for resolving disputes about imple- recognizing the intellectual property rights mentation and compliance; it is empowered

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to impose fines and other penalties in cases Since it was created, the GEF has focused where a company or country is found to be primarily on four areas—climate change, violating the terms of the accord.23 ozone depletion, the loss of biological But in many cases, noncompliance with diversity, and the degradation of interna- environmental treaties stems more from a tional waterways. In May 2001, GEF mem- lack of ability owing to shortages of funds bers decided to also finance projects that and weak administrative capacities than help to implement the Stockholm Conven- from deliberate ill will. As Calestous Juma, tion on Persistent Organic Pollutants. (See who formerly ran the CBD’s secretariat, Chapter 4.)25 puts it: “The real task is deciding how to Projects financed by the GEF have, get national governments to comply fully among other things, helped Ethiopian with environmental laws. If governments farmers preserve genetic diversity in local promote greater compliance with domestic agriculture, have encouraged a partnership environmental laws, they will find it easier between an NGO, a local government, and to reflect this in international agreements. a cement plant to preserve the Dana Nature What is perceived as deficient global envi- Reserve in Jordan, and have helped thou- ronmental regulations is really an indication sands of households, health clinics, and of poor domestic housekeeping.” In other schools in some 20 countries to install solar words, making international environmental power systems. Over the last decade, the governance more effective will require mak- GEF has committed $3.4 billion in grants ing governance in general work better, as it to over 650 projects in 150 countries, an is primarily at the national and local levels average of some $300 million per year. But that environmental treaties are translated raising even this relatively small sum from into on-the-ground results.24 donor governments has proved to be a continuing challenge.26 Making international environmental Like the GEF, other environmental insti- governance more effective will require tutions have also suffered from scarce fund- making governance in general ing. Budgets of the secretariats charged work better. with administering critical environmental treaties such as the Montreal Protocol and Grants provided by the Global Environ- the biological diversity convention are gen- ment Facility are among the main tools erally in the range of $1–10 million, and available for promoting national-level UNEP has struggled to maintain its annual implementation of treaties within develop- budget of roughly $100 million. In coming countries. The GEF was created on a parison, the U.S. Environmental Protection pilot basis in 1991, and emerged as a major Agency had a budget of $7.8 billion in institutional player at Rio and in subse- 2000, while the U.S. military budget was quent years. As a joint initiative of the over $300 billion, and global military World Bank, UNEP, and the U.N. Devel- expenditures added up to more than opment Programme, the GEF’s mandate is $750 billion.27 to finance the additional costs that develop- As the Johannesburg Summit approaching countries incur in responding to global es, many observers are questioning the ade- environmental problems, particularly those quacy of our current structures of global covered by major international treaties. governance for environmental protection

182 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE and sustainable development. UNEP has Striking a Global Fair Deal been particularly active in raising this issue. In a laudable exercise in introspection, it The Earth Summit attempted to bridge the has launched a broad-ranging review of the interests of countries of the North and the current complex system of environmental South in forging a sustainable development treaties and institutions and convened a path through what is often called the Rio series of high-level meetings of government bargain. The essence of this deal was that officials as well as consultations with aca- industrial and developing countries would demic experts, NGOs, and other interested agree to implement the range of environ- parties aimed at producing recommenda- mental provisions contained in Agenda 21 tions for reform that can be acted on in and other Rio documents, but that indus- Johannesburg.28 trial countries would provide substantial A range of proposals is receiving serious financial resources to help others accom- consideration. One idea with wide support plish this. This financing was to come from is to cluster related environmental conven- a range of sources, including increased for- tions together either physically or virtually, eign aid, debt relief, and improved market in order to facilitate coordinated action. access for developing-country exports. Among the possible groupings are treaties Besides merely generating resources for related to atmospheric issues, biodiversity implementing the commitments in Agenda protection, chemicals and hazardous wastes, 21, governments deemed these steps to be and the control of marine pollution. A sec- important for combating poverty and ond focus of attention has been the need to improving living standards in the develop- provide UNEP with a more secure funding ing world—one of the main goals of the base, perhaps by shifting from voluntary conference.30 government pledges to an automatic Ten years later, frustration is running “assessed” contribution. In the background high in many quarters over a perceived fail- of these deliberations are questions about ure of industrial countries to uphold their the relationships among the major interna- end of this bargain. At the same time, the tional agencies with important roles in envi- strength of the anti-globalization protest ronmental protection and sustainable movement in recent years has focused pub- development—from UNEP and the GEF to lic attention on the importance of address- the U.N. Commission on Sustainable ing persistent inequities between the North Development (CSD), the U.N. Develop- and the South. As the Johannesburg Sum- ment Programme, and the World Bank.29 mit approaches, many observers are hoping At the time of this writing, a consensus that it will provide a platform for reinvigo- has not yet emerged on any single step that rating and updating the Rio bargain to will revolutionize the current system of form a Johannesburg Global Deal.31 global environmental governance. But Agenda 21 put a price tag on its own there is widespread agreement that the implementation in developing countries of world community needs to put more polit- over $600 billion annually, $475 billion of ical muscle behind the task of creating which was expected to be generated from international agreements and institutions domestic resources and $125 billion of that are up to the task of reversing ecologi- which was to come as foreign aid. The aid cal decline. sum was widely viewed as unrealistic at the

183 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE time, as it amounted to twice the overall Rio bargain as Secretary-General of the level of spending on foreign aid then. But Earth Summit, concedes that “the era of northern governments nonetheless agreed foreign aid as we came to know it in the last to strive to meet it, in part by reaffirming half of the twentieth century is . . . coming the commitments of many donor countries to an end....There is a tiredness and frus- to contribute 0.7 percent of their gross tration on the part of both donors and national product (GNP) annually to devel- recipients—the donors because they see so opment assistance.32 much money being ‘wasted,’ and the recip- But in the decade since Rio, aid spending ients because they see it surrounded by so has declined substantially rather than many restrictions and limitations and increased. According to Organisation for because they understand as well as anyone Economic Co-operation and Development that a culture of dependence will never be a (OECD) figures, official development assis- long-term solution.”34 tance amounted to $53 billion in 2000, The roles of the World Bank and the down from $69 billion in 1992 (in 2000 International Monetary Fund have come dollars). (See Figure 8–1). Aid spending as under particular scrutiny in recent years, a share of GNP also declined, from 0.33 with the anti-globalization protesters level- percent in 1992 to 0.22 percent in 2000. ing strong critiques from the streets. The But spending levels vary greatly by individ- World Bank has long been lambasted by ual donor country. In relative terms, Den- environmentalists for its support of large mark leads the list, contributing over 1 projects such as dams and power plants, percent of its GNP in aid, with the Nether- which often leave enormous environmental lands, Sweden, and Norway following close destruction in their wake. These kinds of behind. (See Table 8–2.) The United States projects have declined in importance as ranks as the least generous donor by this a share of the Bank’s standard public- measure, spending just 0.1 percent of its sector portfolio. But they continue to be national income. In absolute terms, howev- financed through loan guarantees and er, the United States is the world’s second through partnerships with the Internation- largest donor, following Japan.33 The overall decline in aid spending Billion Dollars since Rio has meant that, as described 80 earlier, key international environmen- (2000 dollars) tal programs and agencies such as the 60 GEF and UNEP have been starved for funds. The shortage of funds for worthy initiatives such as these is trou- 40 bling. At the same time, it must be acknowledged that the overall decline 20 in aid spending over the last decade comes at a time when questions are Source: OECD being raised from many quarters about 0 the record and role of official develop- 1970 1980 1990 2000 ment assistance. In his recent memoir, Figure 8–1. Official Development Assistance, Maurice Strong, who promoted the 1970–2000

184 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

Table 8–2. Development Assistance Contributions,Top 15 Countries and Total,1992 and 2000

1992 2000 Country Total Share of GNP Total Share of GNP (million 2000 dollars) (percent) (million 2000 dollars) (percent)

Denmark 1,583 1.02 1,664 1.06 Netherlands 3,132 0.86 3,075 0.82 Sweden 2,798 1.03 1,813 0.81 Norway 1,448 1.16 1,264 0.80 Belgium 984 0.39 812 0.36 Switzerland 1,296 0.46 888 0.34 France 9,407 0.63 4,221 0.33 United Kingdom 3,659 0.31 4,458 0.31 Japan 12,685 0.30 13,062 0.27 Germany 8,613 0.39 5,034 0.27 Australia 1,107 0.35 995 0.27 Canada 2,861 0.46 1,722 0.25 Spain 1,727 0.26 1,321 0.24 Italy 4,689 0.34 1,368 0.13 United States 13,319 0.20 9,581 0.10

All Countries 68,808 0.33 53,058 0.22

SOURCE: See endnote 33. al Finance Corporation and the Multilater- bad situation worse by demanding that the al Investment Guarantee Agency, two government “slash spending, pull money Bank-affiliated institutions that underwrite out of circulation, and privatize public util- private-sector investment.35 ities” at a time when the country is suffer- The World Bank and the IMF have also ing from flooding, drought, and collapsing been heavily criticized in recent years for coffee prices. And a recent report by the the impact of their economic policy advice. World Wildlife Fund and the Center for Structural adjustment loans, in which recip- International Forestry Research concludes ient countries agree to implement specified that export promotion policies imposed by policies in exchange for access to large infu- the World Bank and the IMF in Indonesia sions of cash, have come under particular following the financial crisis of the late fire. The policies commonly include slash- 1990s led to rapid expansion of the coun- ing government budgets, opening up to try’s pulp and paper industry at the expense trade and foreign investment, and privatiz- of the health of its forests.36 ing government-owned enterprises. Critics The last few years have also brought maintain that these conditions have often growing understanding that World Bank exacerbated poverty and environmental and IMF lending is inextricably linked with destruction. In Nicaragua, for example, the the persistent problem of Third World Montreal-based Social Justice Committee indebtedness, as these institutions are main- charges that the IMF is making an already ly in the business of making loans rather

185 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE than grants. Despite pledges made in Agen- of private capital flows to some parts of the da 21 to reduce indebtedness and an ener- developing world. In 1992, private capital getic campaign for debt cancellation by flows to developing and former Eastern NGOs, the total debt burden in developing bloc nations added up to $115.7 billion (in and former Eastern bloc countries has 2000 dollars), more than 60 percent of the climbed 34 percent since the Earth Sum- funds flowing into the developing world. mit, reaching $2.5 trillion in 2000. Some These funds climbed rapidly over the next 17 percent of this total is owed to the five years, peaking at $315 billion in 1997, World Bank, the IMF, and other public 88 percent of the total. (See Figure 8–3.) international institutions; 21 percent is They then declined precipitously in the owed to national governments; and the wake of the Asian financial crisis, rebound- remaining 62 percent is owed to commer- ed somewhat, and declined again in 2001 in cial banks and other private lenders. (See the face of an uncertain world economic Figure 8–2.) In some heavily indebted and political outlook. The general category countries, such as Zambia, debt-service of “private flows” covers several different payments now consume as much as 40 per- kinds of finance. In 2000, private invest- cent of total government expenditures. ment by multinational corporations (for- These excessive interest payments are eign direct investment, or FDI) accounted siphoning away resources that could other- for nearly 70 percent of the total, while wise be spent on much-needed social and stock and bond transactions made up most environmental programs, from HIV pre- of the remaining 30 percent.38 vention and treatment to access to clean The impact of private capital on sustain- water and sanitation.37 able development is a debated topic. On the One development of the 1990s that was positive side, foreign direct investment and unanticipated at Rio was the rapid growth stock market investments do not need to be repaid, unlike World Bank loans or commer- Trillion Dollars 3.0 cial bank lending and (2000 dollars) Source: World Bank bond offerings. FDI

2.5 Short-term debt, mostly to private lenders infusions, in particular, can provide needed Long-term debt to private lenders investment capital and 2.0 Long-term debt to governments also facilitate technolo- Long-term debt to IMF, World Bank, gy transfer. For exam- 1.5 other development banks ple, joint ventures with western companies 1.0 have helped China to become the world’s 0.5 largest producer of efficient compact fluo- 0.00 rescent light bulbs and 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 India to become a Figure 8–2. Foreign Debt of Developing and Former major wind power pro- Eastern Bloc Nations, 1970–2000 ducer. Joint ventures

186 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE can also be a significant source of local is merely money changing hands to take employment. On the other hand, critics advantage of short-term changes in curren- argue that international corporations can cy prices and interest rates. Foreign- threaten the viability of locally owned exchange speculation on a massive scale is businesses, and drain capital out of the one of the factors that is thought to have country as profits are repatriated. (See helped spark the Asian financial crisis of Chapter 5 for a discussion of this problem 1997–98, plunging tens of millions of peo- in the tourism sector.)39 ple into abject poverty within the space of a Even more controversial than FDI are few months.40 stock and bond investments and commer- In addition to aid, debt reduction, and cial bank loans that can move in and out of private capital, another potentially lucrative countries with destructive rapidity. In the source of income for developing countries aftermath of the Asian financial crisis in is the removal of trade barriers to their 1997, bond financing in developing coun- exports. Agenda 21 called for industrial tries fell from $41 billion in 1998 to $25 countries to grant greater market access for billion a year later, while commercial bank developing-country products in the context lending flows (disbursements of new loans of the negotiations then under way on the less repayments of old ones) plunged from Uruguay Round of trade talks. But many of $50 billion to minus $25 billion over this the WTO’s rules have had the effect of pry- same period. In addition to these longer- ing open the emerging markets of the term flows, some $2 trillion worth of for- developing world to exports from industri- eign exchange occurs every day, up from al countries, while leaving intact large barri- $400 billion in 1985. Although some of ers to the entry of developing-country this facilitates legitimate international com- products into northern markets. Frustra- merce and investment, a sizable share of it tion over this fundamental imbalance led developing-country negotiators to take a Billion Dollars 400 hard line in Seattle in (2000 dollars) Source: World Bank 350 late 1999, contributing Foreign Direct Investment by Corporations even more than the 300 Portfolio Equity (Stocks) demonstrators to the Portfolio Debt (Bonds) 250 breakdown of plans to Commercial Bank Loans launch a “millennium Other 200 round” of world trade 150 negotiations.41 In the wake of Seat- 100 tle, many people now 50 argue that any new round of trade talks 0 should be a “develop- -50 ment round” that would 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 address the fundamental Figure 8–3. Private Capital Flows to Developing imbalances that contin- Countries, 1991–2000 ue to tip the interna-

187 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

tional economic scales against the interests nomic power. One of the underlying goals of the developing world. Economists esti- is to infuse some of the environmental and mate that reducing remaining trade barriers social values that the United Nations could lead to income gains for developing embodies into the narrower economic countries in the range of $130 billion a year, worldview that tends to prevail in the other although there is no guarantee that this institutions.43 money would be channeled to social or Given the important links between the environmental programs. But it is unclear if issues to be addressed in Monterrey and such a round will have been launched at the Johannesburg, it is disappointing that the WTO’s ministerial meeting in November Financing for Development Summit prepa- 2001. Many developing-country representa- rations have so far shied away from using tives are leery of jumping into any new the word “sustainable” to modify “develop- negotiations when so many of the commitment.” Nonetheless, some useful initiatives ments made in the Uruguay Round have yet may emerge from Monterrey that could lay to be implemented. And many of the NGOs the groundwork for success in Johannes- that were active in Seattle continue to burg. One proposal being widely discussed strongly oppose the launch of a new round, is the Tobin tax, first proposed in 1978 by as they believe that the rhetoric about a Yale economist and Nobel laureate James “development round” is largely a smoke Tobin. Under this proposal, a small tax screen for business as usual at the WTO.42 would be levied on foreign-exchange transactions that would be sizable enough to put The Earth Summit ushered in a new era a damper on frequent short-term specula- of global transnational citizen activism tive trading but not large enough to dis- that is radically transforming interna- courage longer-term investment and tional diplomacy. commerce. Although not intended primarily for raising revenue, this type of tax has One venue where many important the potential to generate substantial financing issues will be raised in the run-up resources for environmental and social pro- to Johannesburg is the U.N. Financing for grams. With the enormous volume of daily Development Summit in Monterrey, Mexi- currency transactions, a tax of only 0.1 per- co, in March 2002. This meeting will cent of the total could generate as much as address a daunting array of issues, including $400 billion per year. In comparison, in the role of domestic financial resources, pri- 1999 the U.N. budget, including the activ- vate capital flows, international trade, devel- ities of its specialized agencies, added up to opment assistance, and debt relief. The $10.6 billion.44 summit also plans to tackle broad systemic Many practical problems would need to issues related to governance of the interna- be worked out in levying such a tax, includ- tional monetary, financial, and trading sys- ing both how the revenues would be col- tems. Preparations for it brought the World lected and who would be responsible for Bank, the IMF, the WTO, and the United spending them well. But these obstacles Nations to the same negotiating table, need not be insurmountable, and political which is a notable achievement. In the past, support for a Tobin tax seems to be build- the United Nations has been marginalized ing. Several national parliaments have held from the corridors of international eco- debates or hearings on the idea within the

188 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE last few years, and the Canadian parliament alternative treaties that were intended to passed a motion by a two to one margin in hold governments’ feet to the fire by enun- March 1999 favoring such a tax. In June ciating the bold steps needed in order to 2000, the more than 160 governments pres- reverse ecological decline.47 ent at the Copenhagen+5 meeting in Gene- In retrospect, it is clear that the Earth va (on the fifth anniversary of the U.N. Summit ushered in a new era of global Summit on Social Development) agreed to transnational citizen activism that is radical- study the feasibility of implementing such a ly transforming the landscape of interna- tax. And a number of NGO coalitions are tional diplomacy. Once the staid province actively advocating a Tobin tax, including of diplomats, U.N. negotiating sessions the Canadian-based Halifax Initiative and now attract a diverse and colorful crowd of the French-based Association for the Taxa- participants—from NGOs and business rep- tion of Transactions to Aid Citizens.45 resentatives to farmers and local officials. Other ways to generate financial Innovative new forms of global governance resources for sustainable development and have emerged since Rio that tap into the to pay for “global public goods” such dynamism of these different groups.48 as peace and environmental stability will The number of NGOs operating across also be on the table in Monterrey and international borders grew rapidly over the Johannesburg. One idea being discussed is last century, climbing from 176 in 1909 to small taxes on the use of the global com- more than 24,000 in 2000, according to mons. Levies on international air travel or estimates by the Brussels-based Union of on emissions of carbon dioxide, for International Organizations. Prominent instance, would help countries meet the among them are groups devoted to human goals and targets of the Kyoto Protocol rights, peace, women’s rights, environmen- while also raising substantial sums that tal issues, and Third World development.49 could be used to finance investments in Although many NGOs have become meeting broader sustainable and human vocal critics of the current globalization development goals.46 path in the years since Rio, they have also become adept at using the new tools of the New Global Actors information age to organize themselves into effective cross-border alliances. The As the Earth Summit began in June 1992, Climate Action Network, for instance, has some 15,000 representatives of nongovern- been a powerful and tenacious player in the mental organizations converged in Rio international climate negotiations for more from around the world. Nearly 1,500 of than a decade. And the Third World Net- them were accredited to participate in the work has helped developing-country NGOs official conference, where they observed have a voice in international deliberations in and reported on the negotiations, lobbied diverse arenas, from the annual World Eco- delegates, and interpreted developments for nomic Forum held at Davos, Switzerland, the thousands of journalists present. Many to the United Nations and the WTO.50 more attended the Global Forum, a parallel But NGOs are not the only sector to event that was the scene of numerous have become increasingly effective at work- exhibits and panel discussions as well as the ing together across international borders: venue where NGOs negotiated a set of the international business community is

189 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE also active at the global level. The number requiring little in the way of specific actions and scale of transnational corporations has and providing no effective monitoring of climbed rapidly in recent decades, rising implementation or compliance.53 from 7,000 in 1970 to an estimated 60,000 If the proliferating number of industry today, with some 800,000 foreign affiliates codes of conduct are to make a meaningful and over $15 trillion in annual sales. The difference in shifting the world onto a more global reach of transnational corporations environmentally and socially responsible poses a challenge to regulators, who, unlike course, they will need to become both corporations, continue to operate mainly at more specific and more verifiable. National the national and local levels. Corporations governments could play an important role who find local or national regulations too in creating the incentive structures that onerous can pressure regulators to relax would help to make these instruments more them by threatening to move their opera- effective. For example, Susan Aaronson of tions to other parts of the world.51 the Washington-based National Policy This regulatory gap has led to calls for a Association suggests requiring firms that binding code of conduct for transnational wish to bid on government contracts to corporations to be negotiated under the aus- demonstrate that they are abiding by terms pices of the United Nations. Efforts to of designated codes and guidelines, such as negotiate such a code in the 1970s and OECD’s Guidelines for Multinational 1980s ran aground because of opposition Enterprises.54 from corporations themselves as well as from One of the most commonly expressed free-market governments in the United fears about globalization is that it will cause States, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere. a race to the bottom in environmental and Although international corporations gener- labor standards. But recent history with the ally oppose binding codes of conduct, they Kyoto Protocol offers some hope that the have taken part in a wide range of voluntary pressures of doing business in a global mar- codes and other initiatives aimed at improv- ketplace can instead spur a race to the top. ing corporate environmental and social After the July 2001 agreement on the pro- performance—and, skeptics would say, bur- tocol, hopes have risen that the rest of the nishing public images. (See Table 8–3.)52 world will move ahead with greenhouse gas Most prominently, U.N. Secretary-Gen- emissions trading and other provisions of eral Kofi Annan unveiled the Global Com- Kyoto despite the current U.S. position. pact in 2000, which calls on participating (See Chapter 2.) companies to “embrace, support, and enact” Some U.S. companies are worried about nine core values within their operations their government’s lack of involvement, as related to human rights, labor standards, this will make it difficult for them to partic- and environmental protection. So far, more ipate in the emissions trading provisions. than 300 companies have signed on, and These companies are also concerned about several NGOs have also participated in its not being included when the rules that gov- meetings, including the World Wide Fund ern these instruments are refined. And in for Nature and Amnesty International. But the age of globalization, U.S.-based compa- the Compact has also run into a firestorm of nies operate in many countries, so they will criticism from other NGOs that charge it is be held to the terms of the Kyoto Protocol merely giving cover to “bad actors” while in some of their operations, whether or not

190 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

Table 8–3. Selected Environmentally Focused Business Codes of Conduct

OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises, 1976 Originally formulated in 1976 and updated in 2000, the Guidelines cover a wide range of topics, with chapters on employment and industrial relations, transparency and anti-corruption, consumer protection, human rights, and the environment. The Guidelines are nonbinding, but the 30 OECD members and 3 nonmember states (Argentina, Brazil, and Chile) have pledged to adhere to them. This is a unique approach, signing on governments rather than individual businesses. Many groups were involved in the process of revising the Guidelines, including NGOs, nonmember governments, and representatives from both labor and business groups.

CERES Principles, 1989 The Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES), formed by an alliance of socially responsible business leaders and environmental activists, released the Principles shortly after the Exxon Valdez oil spill.There are currently 57 companies signed on, including 13 Fortune 500 companies. Some of the largest and best-known endorsers are American Airlines, Ford, Bethlehem Steel, Coca-Cola, and Bank of America. While other codes use general language advising companies to respect the environment, these 10 principles detail specific aspects of the environment that companies must address (such as the sustainable use of natural resources; the reduction, recycling, and safe disposal of wastes; energy conservation and efficiency measures). One notable feature is a commitment to compensate for injuries and damages to the environment and to take steps to restore the environment in case of harm.

The Natural Step, 1989 The Natural Step takes a holistic approach to guiding both society and the environment toward sustainability, setting out four “system conditions” for a sustainable society. It states that nature should be protected from physical degradation, from increased levels of human-made substances, and from rising levels of resources extracted from Earth’s crust. The final condition is that “all human needs should be met.” The guidance offered on fulfillment of these goals is broad, instructing groups to engage in “systems thinking” to create a vision statement and proceed from there. Some organizations that have adopted this framework are IKEA, Nike, Starbucks, Home Depot, the U.S. Marine Corps, and the municipality of Whistler, British Columbia.

Business Charter for Sustainable Development, 1991 This initiative of the International Chamber of Commerce specifically targets the environment and has 16 principles designed to promote environmental stewardship and high standards for human health and safety. The Charter emphasizes the need for companies to improve their environmental performance continually, incorporating new technologies and information and the precautionary principle into their business strategy. The principles are considered a list of “best practices” and companies are not required to demonstrate adherence.

Eco-Management and Audit Scheme (EMAS), 1993 A voluntary program of the European Community, the project recognizes companies that surpass the minimum environmental standards set by the Community. Businesses must develop an Environmental Management System, submit independently verified environmental reports, and demonstrate continuous environmental improvement. Companies meeting these requirements may display the EMAS logo, a signal to consumers and other businesses that a company is environmentally friendly.

(continued)

191 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

Table 8–3. Selected Environmentally Focused Business Codes of Conduct (continued)

ISO 14000, 1996 A series of standards developed and administered by the International Organization for Standardization, ISO 14001 and ISO 14004 outline principles of environmental management systems and are followed up with detailed directions on implementation.The body of rules is geared toward helping companies develop internal environmental policies and goals, but does not specify performance standards.The series has issued nearly 23,000 certifications in 98 countries, and continues to grow quickly. Japan is the leading ISO 14000 country, with over 5,000 certifications, while Sweden, the United States, and Germany follow with over 1,000 each.The certification process is costly and is most often pursued by large companies, but implementation has proved to be cost-effective in many cases due to waste reduction, energy efficiency, and other measures encouraged by the standards. Unlike other codes, under ISO 14001 independent verification of compliance is required.

Sustainability Reporting Guidelines, 1999 The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), a collaboration between UNEP and CERES, was founded in 1997. Following the sustainable development framework, its Guidelines are grouped according to economic, social, and environmental indicators. These Guidelines are unique among the codes in laying out detailed rules for reporting information. GRI aims to make sustainability reporting routine, reliable, and credible. More than 60 companies currently participate, including British Airways, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chiquita, Ford, General Motors, Nokia, and Sunoco.

Standards of Corporate Social Responsibility, 1999 The Social Venture Network is a coalition of entrepreneurs dedicated to the idea that the business community can and should effect positive social change. The Standards cover three topics—ethics, accountability, and governance—and address six sets of stakeholders, ranging from employees and communities to the environment. Meticulously organized, each of the nine chapters is broken down into principle, practices, measures, and resources. The emphasis of the regime is concrete steps that affect the daily operations and management of businesses. The Standards have not yet been widely adopted outside the network’s membership.

U.N. Global Compact, 2000 Introduced by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, the Compact was constructed through collaboration between the United Nations, business, labor, and civil society groups. It has nine principles organized into three categories: human rights, labor, and environment. The Compact also foresees the creation of a network of linked businesses, NGOs, labor groups, and intergovernmental organizations that will help facilitate implementation of shared goals. So far, over 300 companies have pledged their support, from major multinationals such as Royal Dutch/Shell, Nike, and DuPont to small and medium-sized companies in the developing world. Some civil society groups have voiced support, while others are more skeptical, noting that some of the companies that have signed on have been implicated in polluting and harsh labor practices in the past.

SOURCE: See endnote 52.

192 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE the U.S. government is formally part of the dards for the construction, operation, and accord. Over time, the pressures of operat- decommissioning of large dams.57 ing in the global marketplace are thus likely The Commission conducted an exten- to make it impossible for the United States sive program of research on the experience to remain outside of the Kyoto Protocol to date with large dams around the world, forever.55 convened four regional consultations, and In addition to the rise of both transna- considered over 900 submissions from tional NGO and industry initiatives, recent interested individuals, groups, and institu- years have seen growing interest in the con- tions. The process itself was widely herald- cept of “global public policy networks”— ed as a new model for international joint initiatives involving NGOs, businesses, decisionmaking, raising expectations for the national governments, and international final report when it was released in Novem- institutions in which some or all of the par- ber 2000.58 ties come together to forge international Reactions to the report’s recommenda- guidelines or standards for specific activities tions varied. The response from the NGO in which they have relevant knowledge and community was largely positive. The Inter- a large stake in the outcome. These transna- national Rivers Network, for one, wel- tional networks are by definition flexible comed it “as a major contribution to the and loose gatherings of experts that are debate on dams and to the management of roughly modeled on the decentralized water and energy resources in general,” and nature of the new information economy, called on its recommendations to be imple- making them fundamentally different in mented by all financiers and dam builders. character from traditional top-down inter- Industry representatives, on the other governmental treaties and institutions.56 hand, took a dimmer view, noting that “the A prominent example of such a network overall tone of the report is negative in is the World Commission on Dams, which regards to the role of dams” and that “if all was established in 1998 as an outgrowth of of the guidelines and recommendations on a meeting on large dams that was jointly the report were implemented they would convened by the World Bank and the World essentially take decisions away from local Conservation Union–IUCN. The group governments.” Many national governments had 12 commissioners representing all sides with large dam-building programs also in what had become an increasingly polar- expressed concern about the final report.59 ized debate about the environmental and Perhaps the most disappointing reaction social impact of large dams. For example, came from the World Bank, which had both Medha Patkar, a leader in the fight helped initiate the process in the first place against the Narmada Dam in India, and and often cited it as a model of its new, Goran Lindahl of ABB Ltd., then one of more participatory way of doing business. the world’s largest construction companies, After remaining involved with the extended were members of the Commission. The research and report development process, group was charged with reviewing the the Bank decided it had reservations about effectiveness of large dams at spurring eco- the results and announced that it would not nomic development; assessing alternatives adopt the Commission’s guidelines as Bank for water resources and development; and policy but would instead use them only as a developing criteria, guidelines, and stan- reference point.60

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Despite this lukewarm reception, the cial interests. Restoring legitimacy to glob- World Bank has nonetheless thrown its al governance will require addressing these weight behind a somewhat similar multi- due process concerns head-on.62 stakeholder initiative aimed at reviewing the The procedures of the WTO have come Bank’s role in extractive industries such as in for particularly sharp criticism, especially oil, gas, and mining. NGO representatives the closed-door nature of dispute resolu- have welcomed this process in principle, but tion panels that can issue binding rulings on warn that it will only have credibility if it is the consistency of national laws with WTO conducted with complete independence rules. Several national environmental and and if the World Bank agrees to abide by consumer laws have been successfully chal- the report’s recommendations.61 lenged as unfair trade barriers at the WTO since it was established in 1995, including a Democratizing Global European Union law that bans the sale of Governance beef produced with growth hormones and a U.S. one that aims to protected endan- Although globalization has made a range of gered sea turtles by restricting imports of nongovernmental transnational actors more shrimp caught in nets without a turtle powerful, including environmental groups, excluder device.63 labor unions, and private corporations, it When a national law is found to violate has by no means made governments obso- WTO rules, governments are required to lete. Forging a sustainable development either amend or rescind it—or be subjected path—the goal governments committed to retaliatory trade sanctions. In the themselves to at Rio—will require a range shrimp-turtle case, the United States of reforms in the way governments go changed the way it was administering the about their business at the global, national, law to bring it into conformity with the and local levels. WTO ruling. In the beef hormone case, on One argument of the anti-globalization the other hand, the European Union has so protesters that has resonated strongly with far held its ground even though the United the public at large is the notion that today’s States has imposed over $100 million worth increasingly powerful institutions of inter- of trade sanctions against EU goods in national governance suffer from a profound retaliation. The judges who rule on these “democratic deficit.” Protesters have national laws are appointed by the WTO, focused worldwide attention on the fact usually based on their background in the that decisions that affect peoples’ daily field of international trade rather than any lives—from the safety of the food they eat environmental or social expertise. And to the amount their government spends on unlike in most national court systems and environmental protection or social wel- many international tribunals, WTO panels fare—are often being made by remote meet in secret, and government submis- international institutions such as the WTO sions and other key documents are typically and the IMF that are not subject to elec- confidential.64 tions, freedom of information, or public Recent years have seen the WTO take review and comment. Critics charge that some limited steps to open itself to greater these procedural flaws leave the institutions public participation, including convening susceptible to capture by narrow commer- symposiums for NGOs and allowing out-

194 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE side groups to submit “friend of the Court” cooperation resulting from the conference. Amicus briefs in certain disputes. But more In more recent years, NGOs have even far-reaching steps are needed, such as allow- joined forces with sympathetic governing NGOs to observe and contribute to the ments to promote new international agree- deliberations of dispute resolution panels ments, such as the 1997 Ottawa treaty that and the meetings of the numerous commit- banned antipersonnel landmines and the tees that administer the WTO’s extensive 1998 agreement in Rome to create a U.N. and complicated rules.65 International Criminal Court.67 The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund face similar challenges Today’s increasingly powerful institutions regarding transparency and accountability. of international governance suffer from a Despite a new public disclosure policy at profound “democratic deficit.” the World Bank that makes more information available to the public, important documents such as project proposals and One U.N. institution that has been a country assistance strategies are still confi- pioneer in engaging nongovernmental dential until after key decisions have been actors in its work is the U.N. Commission made. Board meetings at both the World on Sustainable Development, created at Rio Bank and the IMF are closed to the public, as a forum for overseeing the implementa- and no minutes are made available. Former tion of the agreements reached there. Fol- World Bank Chief Economist and Nobel lowing the model forged at Rio itself, the laureate Joseph Stiglitz explained the CSD has encouraged NGO participation dangers of this lack of transparency in an through straightforward accreditation pro- April 2000 article in the New Republic: cedures and other steps. The number of “Bad economics was only a symptom of the NGO representatives from around the real problem: secrecy. Smart people are world at its annual forums has risen steadi- more likely to do stupid things when they ly, from 200–300 in 1993 to 700–800 in close themselves off from outside criticism 2000. High-level government ministers, and advice.”66 local officials, business organizations, farm- The United Nations has generally been ers, and indigenous peoples, among others, more open to the active participation of have all taken part in the CSD meetings.68 NGOs in its deliberations and its activities. The annual CSD meetings in recent Their influential role was particularly evi- years have included “multistakeholder dia- dent during the global conferences of the logues” dedicated to specific issues, such as 1990s—from the 1992 Rio Earth Summit tourism, agriculture, and energy. At these to the 1993 Vienna human rights confer- sessions, representatives from diverse sec- ence, the 1994 Cairo population confer- tors convene at the United Nations to share ence, the 1995 Copenhagen social their experiences and forge common development summit, the 1995 Beijing ground. The multistakeholder model has conference on women, and the 1996 Istan- been incorporated into the preparatory bul conference on cities. At all of these, process for the Johannesburg Summit, and NGOs joined together in powerful transna- is likely to figure prominently in activities tional networks to influence both the for- there and in any structures or processes that mal agreements and the informal stem from it.69

195 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

All of these steps at the international Kingdom, Porto Alegre in Brazil, and level to democratize decisionmaking Korolev in Russia.70 processes are to the good. But if global gov- The Earth Summit also broke new ernance for sustainable development is to ground by officially recognizing the impor- be effective, it must be built on the founda- tance of public participation in environ- tions of good national and local gover- mental decisionmaking at the national level. nance. International institutions, after all, Principle 10 of the Rio Declaration on are composed of representatives of nation- Environment and Development stipulates states, and their policies largely reflect the that individuals are entitled to access to collective will of these governments, which information and judicial proceedings, as should themselves represent the collective well as the chance to be involved in deci- will of their people (at least in the case of sionmaking. Six years later, this concept was democracies). And when governments enshrined in a legally binding form in the make commitments in international June 1998 Aarhus Convention on Access to forums, whether at the WTO or through Information, Public Participation in Deci- U.N. processes, these international com- sion-making and Access to Justice, negoti- mitments must be translated into domestic ated under the auspices of the U.N. laws and actions that are implemented and Economic Commission for Europe. Other enforced by national and local governmen- regional initiatives on public participation tal agencies and judicial systems. are under way in Latin America and in East The documents that emerged from the Africa, and it is likely that issues of public Earth Summit underscored the need to participation and democratic governance translate abstract global commitments into more generally will figure prominently on action at the national and local levels. the agenda for Johannesburg. Along these Agenda 21 called on all nations to devise lines, the U.N. Centre for Human Settle- national sustainable development strategies, ments (Habitat) has already launched a and since the Earth Summit some 70 coun- campaign on “good urban governance” tries have created National Councils on that is beginning to have some success. (See Sustainable Development or similar organi- Box 8–1.)71 zations charged, among other things, with Paralleling the need for more democrat- encouraging the implementation of the Rio ic governance structures within countries is agreements at the national level. There is the importance of more equitable relations also a growing movement worldwide to among nations. During the first half of create sustainable cities and communities, 2001, the Bush administration not only with many cities and towns adopting local pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol but versions of Agenda 21. A 2001 survey by attempted to derail a range of U.N. delib- the Toronto-based International Council erations on everything from the control of for Local Environmental Initiatives found small arms and biological weapons to the that more than 4,000 local governments in well-being of the world’s children. But if 63 countries have initiated local Agenda 21 any good can rise from the rubble and loss processes—double the number identified in the terrible events of September 11th, it in a survey done in 1997. Successful pro- is that they have begun to awaken the grams are under way in cities as diverse as American public and the current U.S. Jinja in Uganda, Leicester in the United administration to the need to cooperate

196 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE with other countries.72 somehow go it alone in the fight against In a stinging rebuke to the earlier poli- terrorism or in anything else for that mat- cies of his son’s administration, former U.S. ter.” Governments from all corners of the President George Bush told an audience in globe have stepped up to the plate to coop- Boston in the days immediately following erate in the anti-terrorism coalition, and the terrorist attacks that “just as Pearl Har- they will now look to the United States to bor awakened this country from the notion do likewise on issues such as climate change that we could somehow avoid the call to and poverty alleviation.73 duty. . . in World War II, so, too, should As the world struggles to respond to the this most recent surprise attack erase the catastrophic events of September 11th and concept in some quarters that America can their aftermath, we are understandably dis-

BOX 8–1. GOOD URBAN GOVERNANCE

As the world’s population becomes more crime and conflict prevention and disaster urban and national governments shift some preparedness, or developing a public aware- responsibilities to towns and cities, local ness campaign to encourage tolerance of authorities are becoming increasingly impor- diversity. tant. In 1999, Habitat—the U.N. agency respon- A better environment is one benefit of sible for human settlements—launched a global translating these sorts of principles into con- campaign that aims to help people have a voice crete action. In Bangalore, India, an NGO called in local government. It is developing consensus the Public Affairs Centre surveyed citizens in on seven tenets of good urban governance: 1993 to prepare a “report card,” and found • sustainability: balancing the social, economic, widespread dissatisfaction and rampant corrup- and environmental needs of present and tion in municipal offices. The corruption was future generations—for example, by drafting bad for the environment: some people wasted a Local Agenda 21 action plan for environ- money on bribes that they could have spent ment and development; on food and education, while those who could • subsidiarity: decentralizing responsibility and not afford the bribes were denied access to resources to the lowest appropriate level; needed water, sanitation, and shelter. The • equality: ensuring that all citizens have equal survey gave people ammunition to press for access to decisionmaking; improvements in municipal services, and • efficiency: managing local revenue in a cost- prompted some offices to reform. Inspired effective way; by that success, citizens and citizens’ groups • accountability: making local authorities around the world have devised report cards accountable to their citizens, such as by for other cities.“Good governance isn’t so improving public access to government much about technical capability,” says Habitat’s information; Paul Taylor,“as it is about the hearts and • participation: promoting civic engagement minds” of the public. and citizenship—for instance, by making use of public hearings and surveys; and — Molly O’Meara Sheehan • security: striving to maintain safe public spaces—for example, by involving citizens in SOURCE: See endnote 71.

197 State of the World 2002 RESHAPING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE tracted from preparations for Johannes- national society and calls into question the burg. But recent events only strengthen the durability of our current globalization path. need for the World Summit on Sustainable Johannesburg offers us an opportunity to Development. It is now more evident than shift the course of the global economy and ever that the persistence of extreme poverty the institutions that underpin it away from in the face of unprecedented plenty poses destruction and toward ecological and grave ethical and moral challenges for inter- social integrity. We must seize the moment.

WORLD SUMMIT PRIORITIES ON GOVERNANCE

For International Institutions ➣ Strengthen and streamline the U.N. system’s diverse environmentally related agencies and programs. ➣ Promote more cooperation and coherence between the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization. ➣ Promote transparency by making information available and opening negotiations to NGO observers and participants. For Governments ➣ Prepare and adopt national and local Agenda 21s. ➣ Implement Rio commitments on freedom of environmental information, public participation, and access to justice. ➣ Ratify and implement environmental treaties. ➣ Honor funding pledges from Rio. For NGOs ➣ Monitor government and corporate compliance with international norms and standards. ➣ Strengthen transnational NGO networking and collaboration. ➣ Forge partnerships with businesses, governments, and international institutions. ➣ Advocate for strong environmental policies and transparent governmental processes at the global, national, and local levels. For Business ➣ Participate in the U.N.’s Global Compact and other corporate codes of conduct, and accept independent monitoring and verification of compliance with them. ➣ Respect the goals and provisions of international environmental, human rights, and labor treaties and standards. ➣ Forge partnerships with NGOs, governments, and international institutions.

198 Notes

Preface ly,” in Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 1, pp. 74–75; World Bank, op. cit. note 4. 1. Janet Larsen, “Wetlands Decline,” in World- watch Institute, Vital Signs 2001 (New York: Chapter 1. The Challenge for W.W. Norton & Company, 2001), pp. 96–97; Johannesburg: Creating a More Ashley Mattoon, “Bird Species Threatened,” in Secure World ibid., pp. 98–99; access to clean water from Robert Engelman et al., People in the Balance: 1. “A Nation Challenged: President Bush’s Population and Natural Resources in the New Address on Terrorism Before a Joint Meeting of Millennium (Washington, DC: Population Congress,” New York Times, 21 September 2001. Action International, 2000), pp. 8–9. 2. Ibid. 2. J. R. McNeill, Something New Under the Sun (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2000), p. 3. Botswana from UNAIDS, “Botswana: Epi- xxii. demiological Fact Sheets on HIV/AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Infections,” 2000 Update 3. Ann Hwang, “AIDS Erodes Decades of (revised), at , 1, pp. 78–79; Janet Larsen, “Hydrological Pover- viewed 31 October 2001; extinction from G. ty Worsening,” in ibid., pp. 94–95. Tyler Miller, Living in the Environment (Paciﬁc Grove, CA: Brooks/Cole Publishing Company, 4. J. T. Houghton et al., eds., Climate Change 2001: The Scientiﬁc Basis, Contribution of Work- 2000), p. 150; inequality from U.N. Develop- ing Group I to the Third Assessment Report of ment Programme (UNDP), Human Develop- the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ment Report 1998 (New York: Oxford University (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, Press, 1998), p. 30. 2001); Lisa Mastny, “World’s Coral Reefs Dying Off,” in Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 1, pp. 4. BP Amoco, Statistical Review of World Ener- 92–93; Lester R. Brown, “World Economy gy June 2000 (London: Group Media & Publica- Expands,” in ibid., pp. 56–57; World Bank, tions, June 2000), pp. 9, 25, 33. World Development Report 2000 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000). 5. Dollar a day from World Bank, World Devel- opment Report 2000/2001 (New York: Oxford 5. Gary Gardner, “Population Increases Steadi- University Press, 2000), p. 3. State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 1

6. UNDP, Human Development Report 2001 from Peter Gleick, “The Human Right to (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001), p. 9. Water,” Water Policy, vol. 1, no. 5 (1999), p. 2.

7. “A Nation Challenged,” op. cit. note 1. 16. Peter H. Gleick, “The Changing Water Par- adigm: A Look at Twenty-ﬁrst Century Water 8. Robert Costanza et al., “The Value of the Resources Development,” Water International, World’s Ecosystem Services and Natural Capi- vol. 25, no. 1 (2000), p. 129. tal,” Nature, May 1997, p. 253. 17. Ibid. 9. Warning in 1996 from J. T. Houghton et al., eds., Climate Change 1995: The Science of 18. World Commission on Dams, Dams and Climate Change, Contribution of Working Development: A New Framework for Decision- Group 1 to the Second Assessment Report of Making (London: Earthscan, November 2000), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate pp. xxxiii, 15, 16–17. Change (IPCC) (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1996); idem, Climate Change 19. The year of removal is available for 377 of 2001: The Scientiﬁc Basis, Contribution of Work- the nearly 500 small dams removed. This small- ing Group I to the Third Assessment Report of er dataset is graphed. Data and Figure 1–1 from the IPCC, (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge Uni- Peter H. Gleick, The World’s Water 2000–2001 versity Press, 2001), p. 10. (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2000), pp. 275–86; Idaho from American Rivers, “Con- 10. G. Marland, T. A. Boden, and R. J. Andres, gressman McDermott Introduces Bill to Save Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Endangered Salmon in Columbia and Snake Oak Ridge National Laboratory, “Global, Rivers,” press release, at

Regional, and National Annual CO2 Emissions snakeriver/snakepress7.19.01.htm>, viewed 2 from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Production, November 2001; Adam Werbach, President, and Gas Flaring: 1751–1998 (revised July Sierra Club, testimony before the Subcommit- 2001),” at , viewed 6 November 2001; BP, BP Statis- Water and Power Resources, U.S. House of tical Review of World Energy 2001 (London: Representatives, Washington, DC, 23 Septem- Group Media & Publications, June 2001). ber 1997; 80,000 dams and reservoirs from Peter H. Gleick, The World’s Water 1998–1999 11. Annette des Iles, “The Alliance of Small (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1998), p. 6. Island States Looks Towards Kyoto,” The Courier ACP-EU, May–June 1997, p. 56. 20. Sandra L. Postel and Aaron T. Wolf, “Dehy- drating Conﬂict,” Foreign Policy, September– 12. Commission on Sustainable Development October 2001. (CSD), Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwa- ter Resources of the World (New York: United 21. Threatened plants from Kerry S. Walter and Nations, 1997). Harriet J. Gillett, 1997 IUCN Red List of Threatened Plants (Gland, Switzerland: World 13. Sandra Postel, Pillar of Sand (New York: Conservation Union–IUCN, 1998), p. xvii; W.W. Norton & Company, 1999), p. 80. other threatened groups from Jonathan Baillie and Brian Groombridge, 1996 IUCN Red List 14. Ibid. of Threatened Animals (Gland, Switzerland: IUCN, 1996), p. 26; C. Hilton-Taylor, 2000 15. Low income living in water-stressed coun- IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (Gland, tries from CSD, op. cit. note 12; consequences Switzerland: IUCN, 2000).

200 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 1

22. Assessment from U.N. Food and Agriculture 32. Principle 1, “Rio Declaration of Environ- Organization, at ; Emily Matthews, Under- Programme, at , viewed 21 September 2001. Resources Institute, March 2001), pp. 2, 3. 33. Don Noah and George Fidas, “The Global 23. Matthews, op. cit. note 22, p. 5; 1.7 billion Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implication for people from Tom Gardner-Outlaw and Robert the United States,” National Intelligence Esti- Engelman, Forest Futures (Washington, DC: mate 99-17D, January 2000, at , viewed 8 August 2001. 24. Gardner-Outlaw and Engelman, op. cit. note 23, p. 19. 34. Share of deaths from Cesar G. Victora et al., “Reducing Deaths from Diarrhoea Through 25. Ibid., p. 21. Oral Rehydration Therapy,” WHO Bulletin, vol. 78, no. 10 (2000), p. 1252. Table 1–1 from the 26. Share without access to paper from ibid., p. following: Christopher J. L. Murray and Alan D. 36; consumption and recycling from Janet N. Lopez, eds., The Global Burden of Disease (Cam- Abramovitz and Ashley T. Mattoon, Paper Cuts: bridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1996); Recovering the Paper Landscape, Worldwatch World Health Organization (WHO), World Paper 149 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Insti- Health Report 2001 (Geneva: 2001); resistance tute, December 1999), p. 11. from David L. Heymann, Executive Director for Communicable Diseases, WHO, Testimony 27. Clive Wilkinson, Status of the Coral Reefs of before the Committee on International Rela- the World: 2000 (Townsville, Australia: Global tions, U.S. House of Representatives, Washing- Coral Reef Monitoring Network, 2000), p. 1. ton, DC, 29 June 2000, pp. 29–32.

28. Ibid. 35. Victora et al., op. cit. note 34, pp. 1246, 1252. 29. Dirk Bryant et al., Reefs at Risk: A Map- Based Indicator of Threats to the World’s Coral 36. WHO, “Tuberculosis,” Fact Sheet No. Reefs (Washington, DC: World Resources Insti- 104, revised April 2000, at , viewed 7 August 2001; India from WHO, “Health a Key to Prosperity,” 30. Clive Wilkinson, “Status of Coral Reefs of at , viewed the World: 2000,” Australian Institute of Marine 29 September 2001. Science, at , viewed 16 August 2001. er, UNAIDS, e-mail to Liza Rosen, Worldwatch Institute, 7 August 2001; infection rates from 31. Reduction of output from Hilary French, UNAIDS, “Table of Country-Speciﬁc HIV/ Vanishing Borders (New York: W.W. Norton & AIDS Estimates and Data,” at , viewed 31 October 2001. Through- tion/Accession/Acceptance/Approval of the out State of the World, sub-Saharan Africa is used Agreements on the Protection of the Strato- to describe all African countries except those spheric Ozone Layer,” at , viewed 3 November 2001.

201 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 1

38. UNDP, Human Development Report 2000 Describe Obesity Facts,” at , viewed 30 July 2001. p. 148; UNAIDS, “HIV/AIDS and Develop- ment,” fact sheet produced for the U.N. Special 45. Drugs from IMS Health, at , 2001, pp. 3-4. viewed 30 October 2001.

39. John Eyles and Ranu Sharma, “Infectious 46. WHO, “HIV, TB, and Malaria—Three Diseases and Global Change,” Aviso (mono- Major Infectious Diseases Threats,” Back- graph), (Victoria, BC, Canada: Global Environ- grounder No. 1 (Geneva: July 2000); Elizabeth mental Change and Human Security Project, Olson, “Red Cross Says Three Diseases Kill June 2001). Many More than Disasters,” New York Times, 29 June 2000; cost of overweight from IOTF, op. 40. Noah and Fidas, op. cit. note 33. cit. note 44; obesity from Graham Colditz, Har- vard School of Public Health, unpublished man- 41. Patrice Trouiller and Piero L. Olliaro, uscript. “Drug Development Output from 1975 to 1996: What Proportion for Tropical Diseases?” 47. Enrolment from UNESCO, Education for International Journal of Infectious Diseases, win- All—Year 2000 Statistical Assessment, Statistical ter 1998–99, p. 61. Document, at , viewed 26 February 42. Heymann, op. cit. note 34, pp. 25, 26. 2001, p. 10; share of budget from ibid., pp. 10–11; students per teacher from idem, World 43. WHO, World Health Report 1998 (Geneva: Education Report 2000 (Paris: 2000), pp. 1998), pp. 56–57. Table 1–2 complied from the 152–55; “Literacy Up by 10 pc Over Last 6 following: 1990 statistics from Christopher Years: President,” The Times of India, 9 Septem- Murray and Alan Lopez, Global Burden of Dis- ber 1999. ease and Injury Series, Vols. I and II (Geneva: WHO, 1996); 2000 statistics from WHO, op. 48. Beneﬁts of education, especially for women, cit. note 34, Annex Table 2; major cancers from Kevin Watkins, Education Now: Break the include cancers of the mouth and oropharynx, Cycle of Poverty, Executive Summary (London: esophagus, stomach, colon/rectum, liver, pan- Oxfam International, 1999); illiteracy in devel- creas, trachea/ bronchus/lung, melanoma and oping countries based on data in UNESCO, other skin cancers, breast, cervix, corpus uteri, Statistical Yearbook 1999 Database, at , viewed leukemia. 26 February 2001.

44. Overweight in Europe from International 49. UNICEF, The State of the World’s Children Obesity Task Force (IOTF), at , 1999 (New York: 1999), pp. 15, 25. viewed 1 November 2001; U.S. overweight from Centers for Disease Control and Preven- 50. Ibid., pp. 80–81. tion, “A Public Health Epidemic: Overweight and Obesity Among Adults,” at , viewed op. cit. note 6, p. 14; happiness data from David 1 November 2001; obesity in Europe from G. Meyers, “Does Economic Growth Improve IOTF, op. cit. this note; obesity in United States Human Morale?” Center for a New American (for 1991–98) from American Society of Beri- Dream, at , viewed 27 September 2001.

202 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 1

52. European experience from David Rood- CASHPOR Financial and Technical Services, man, “Environmental Tax Shifts Multiplying,” “The Microcredit Summit’s Challenge: Working in Lester R. Brown, Michael Renner, and Brian Towards Institutional Financial Self-Sufﬁciency Halweil, Vital Signs 2000 (New York: W.W. while Maintaining a Commitment to Serving the Norton & Company, 2000), p. 139; computer Poorest Families,” unpublished draft, June modeling from Organisation for Economic Co- 2000, pp. 3–4; 1.2 billion from World Bank, operation and Development, OECD Environ- World Development Report 2000/2001 (New mental Outlook (Paris: 2001), p. 263. York: Oxford University Press, 2001), p. 3.

53. European Organic Farming Statistics, Uni- 57. International Factor 10 Club, Statement to versity of Wales, Aberystwyth, at , viewed 18 September France: 1997). The 90-percent goal was also 2001; Christopher Flavin, “Wind Energy advocated by several government agencies and Growth Continues,” in Worldwatch Institute, intergovernmental organizations during the Vital Signs 2001 (New York: W.W. Norton & 1990s. Company, 2001), p. 44; Seth Dunn, “King Coal’s Weakening Grip on Power,” World 58. Government of Australia, “No Waste by Watch, September/October 1999. 2010: A Waste Management Strategy for Canberra,” at , viewed 15 October 2001; Responsible Investing in U.S. Tops Two Trillion City of Toronto, “Task Force 2010 Seeks Made- Dollar Mark; One Out of Every $8 Under Man- in-Toronto Solutions for Waste,” press release, agement Now Invested Responsibly,” press at , viewed 15 October 2001; Zero Waste New Zealand, “National Campaign: 55. Grameen clientele from Grameen Bank, Zero Waste Councils,” at , viewed 16 October 2001; take-back poli- borrowers from Grameen Bank, at , viewed 4 cling Policy News,” at , viewed 18 October 2001. rowers who are poorest from Microcredit Sum- Table 1–4 from the following: German packag- mit, “Empowering Women with Microcredit: ing from U.S. Environmental Protection 2000 Microcredit Summit Campaign Report,” Agency, Office of Solid Waste, “Product Stew- at , viewed 26 February 2001; Kate gov/epr/products/pintern.html>, viewed 12 Druschel, Jennifer Quigley, and Cristina October 2001; European Parliament, “Euro- Sanchez, State of the Microcredit Summit Cam- pean Parliament and Council Directive paign Report 2001 (draft) (Washington, DC: 94/62/EC of 20 December 1994 on Packaging Microcredit Summit, October 2001). and Packaging Waste,” Official Journal of the European Communities, 31 December 1994, 56. Loans and savings from Consultative Group Article 6; Sarah D. Hanson and Tetsuo to Assist the Poorest, “About & History,” at Hamamoto, “U.S. Exports Affected by Japan’s , New Recycling Law,” FAS Online, at viewed 5 March 2001; 70 percent from UNDP, , viewed 14 October 2001; Euro- Oxford University Press, 1995), p. 4; 2005 goal pean Parliament, “Council Directive 1999/ from David S. Gibbons and Jennifer W. Meehan, 31/EC of 26 April 1999 on the Landfill of

203 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTERS 1 AND 2

Waste,” Official Journal of the European Com- 64. North America from Car-sharing.net, at munities, 16 July 1999, Article 5; European Par- , viewed 30 October liament, “Directive 2000/53/EC of the 2001; global total from EcoPlan and the Com- European Parliament and of the Council of 18 mons, CarSharing 2001 (Paris: 2001), p. 6; September 2000 on End of Life Vehicles,” Offi- Ford quoted in Terry Slavin, “The Motown cial Journal of the European Communities, 21 Missionary,” The Observer (London), 12 October 2000, Articles 4 and 7; Embassy of November 2000. Japan, “Household Electric Appliance Recycling Law Takes Effect from April—Major Step 65. Richard W. Stevenson, “Bush Advisers Say Toward Age of Full-scale Recycling,” Japan Brief Congress Must Act Now on Economy,” New 0106, Foreign Press Center, 21 February 2001; York Times, 31 October 2001. Raymond Communications, “European Elec- tronics Directives Will Create New Patchwork,” 66. Paul H. Ray and Sherry Ruth Anderson, Recycling Policy News, press release, 23 May Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People Are 2001. Changing the World (New York: Harmony Books, 2000). 59. Edward Cohen-Rosenthal and Thomas N. McGalliard, “Eco-Industrial Development: The 67. Geoffrey Ryan, Bureau of Public Affairs, Case of the United States,” paper issued by Department of Environmental Protection, City the Work and Environment Initiative, Cornell of New York, discussion with author, 19 Octo- University, at . 68. Receptivity and society-wide value change 60. Consumers International, Green Testing: from Ronald Inglehart, Modernization and Post- Recyclability, Repairability, and Upgradabili- modernization: Cultural, Economic, and Politi- ty—A Practical Handbook for Consumer Orga- cal Change in 43 Societies (Princeton, NJ: nizations (London: 1999), pp. 8–10; Xerox Princeton University Press, 1997), p. 33; com- Corporation, 2001 Environment, Health & Safe- munication strategies from Gerald T. Gardner ty Progress Report (Stamford, CT: 2001), p. 19. and Paul C. Stern, Environmental Problems and Human Behavior (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 61. “Manufacturing: Once Is Not Enough,” 1996), pp. 205–52, and from Doug McKenzie- Business Week Online, 16 April 2001. Mohr and William Smith, Fostering Sustainable Behavior (Gabriola Island, BC, Canada: New 62. European Car Sharing, “How Does Car Society Publishers, 1999), pp. 95–99. Sharing Work?” at , viewed 25 October 2001. Chapter 2. Moving the Climate Change Agenda Forward 63. European studies from Bealtaine, Ltd. “Pay As You Drive Carsharing: Final Report,” (Cran- 1. Eric Pianin, “U.S. Aims to Pull Out of field, U.K.: International Ecotechnology Warming Treaty,” Washington Post, 28 March Research Centre at Cranfield University, circa 2001. 1997), p. 10; idle cars from Rens Meijkamp and Roger Theunissen, “Car Sharing: Consumer 2. Andrew C. Revkin, “178 Nations Reach A Acceptance and Changes on Mobility Behavior,” Climate Accord; U.S. Only Looks On,” New in Transport Policy and Its Implementation, Pro- York Times, 24 July 2001. ceedings of Seminar B of the PTRC European 3. J. T. Houghton et al., eds., Climate Change Transport Forum, Brunel University, U.K., 2–6 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Work- September 1996, p. 1. ing Group I to the Third Assessment Report of

204 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 2 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 9. Ibid., p. 15. Change (IPCC) (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2001). Box 2–1 based on the 10. James J. McCarthy et al., eds., Climate following: Michael Grubb, Christian Vrolijk, Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulner- and Duncan Brack, The Kyoto Protocol: A Guide ability, Contribution of Working Group II to and Assessment (London: Royal Institute of the IPCC (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge Uni- International Affairs/Earthscan, 1999); U.N. versity Press, 2001), pp. 3–4. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC), “Implementation of the Buenos 11. Ibid., pp. 5–6. Aires Plan of Action,” Conference of the Parties, Bonn, Germany, 24 July 2001; “Summary of the 12. Ibid., pp. 5–7. Resumed Sixth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention to 13. Ibid., p. 6. Climate Change: 16–27 July 2001,” Earth Negotiations Bulletin, 30 July 2001; UN FCCC, 14. Ibid., p. 6–8; Robert T. Watson et al., eds., “Bonn Decisions Promise to Speed Action on The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Climate Change,” press release (Geneva: 27 July Assessment of Vulnerability, A Special Report of 2001); idem, “Governments Adopt Bonn IPCC Working Group II (Cambridge, U.K.: Agreement on Kyoto Protocol Rules,” press Cambridge University Press, 1999); National release (Geneva: 23 July 2001). Assessment Synthesis Team, Climate Change Impacts on the United States; The Potential Con- 4. Houghton et al., op. cit. note 3, p. 12. sequences of Climate Variability and Change, Report for the U.S. Global Change Research 5. Second IPCC report cited in ibid., p. 10. Program (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge Univer- sity Press, 2001); Committee on the Science of 6. Ibid., pp. 2–4; Figure 2–1 based on James Climate Change, Climate Change Science: An Hansen, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Analysis of Some Key Questions (Washington, “Global Temperature Anomalies in .01 C, DC: National Research Council, 2001). 1867–2000,” at , viewed 13 August 2001. 15. Houghton et al., op. cit. note 3, pp. 75–76.

7. Houghton et al., op. cit. note 3, pp. 5–10; 16. Bert Metz et al., eds., Climate Change C. D. Keeling and T. P. Whorf, “Atmospheric 2001: Mitigation, Contribution of Working

CO2 Concentrations—Mauna Loa Observatory, Group III to the Third Assessment Report of Hawaii, 1958–2000 (revised August 2001),” the IPCC (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge Uni- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, versity Press, 2001), pp. 3–5. CA, 13 August 2001; Figure 2–2 based on G. Marland, T. A. Boden, and R. J. Andres, Carbon 17. Ibid., pp. 5–8. Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), “Global, 18. Ibid.

Regional, and National Annual CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Production, 19. Ibid., p. 8; Figure 2–3 based on Marland, and Gas Flaring: 1751–1998 (revised July Boden, and Andres, op. cit. note 7, on BP, op. 2001),” at , viewed 13 August 2001, and on BP, BP Fund, World Economic Outlook (Washington, Statistical Review of World Energy (London: DC: October 2000), p. 197. Group Media & Publications, June 2001). 20. Metz et al., op. cit. note 16, p. 9. 8. Houghton et al., op. cit. note 3, pp. 12–16. 21. Ibid.; Luis Cifuentes et al., “Hidden Health

205 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 2

Beneﬁts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation,” Sci- 34. Ibid., pp. 12–13. ence, 17 August 2001, pp. 1257–59; Giulio A. DeLeo et al., “The Economic Beneﬁts of the 35. Worldwatch estimates based on Marland, Kyoto Protocol,” Nature, 4 October 2001, pp. Boden, and Andres, op. cit. note 7, and on BP, 478–79. op. cit. note 7.

22. Metz et al., op. cit. note 16, p. 10; Inter- 36. Table 2–1 based on Marland, Boden, and laboratory Working Group, Scenarios for a Andres, op. cit. note 7, and on BP, op. cit. note Clean Energy Future (Oak Ridge, TN, and 7. Berkeley, CA: Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 37. Figure 2–4 based on Marland, Boden, and November 2000); European Climate Change Andres, op. cit. note 7, and on BP, op. cit. note Programme, European Climate Change Pro- 7. gramme Report—June 2001 (Brussels: June 2001); “European Union Says Enhanced Efﬁ- 38. Marland, Boden, and Andres, op. cit. note ciency, Conservation Could Make Reductions 7; BP, op. cit. note 7; Jonathan Sinton and Easier,” International Environment Reporter, 20 David Fridley, “Hot Air and Cold Water: The June 2001, p. 513. Unexpected Fall in China’s Energy Use,” China Environment Series, Issue 4 (Washington, DC: 23. Metz et al., op. cit. note 16, p. 10; Peter N. Woodrow Wilson Center, 2001), pp. 3–20; John Spotts, “Less Costly Views of Climate Pact,” Pomfret, “Research Casts Doubt on China’s Christian Science Monitor, 19 July 2001. Pollution Claims,” Washington Post, 15 August 2001. 24. Metz et al., op. cit. note 16. 39. Worldwatch estimates based on Marland, 25. Ibid.; Jae Edmonds, Joseph M. Roop, and Boden, and Andres, op. cit. note 7, and on BP, Michael J. Scott, Technology and the Economics of op. cit. note 7. Climate Change Policy (Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, September 40. Worldwatch estimates based on Marland, 2000). Boden, and Andres, op. cit. note 7; BP, op. cit. note 7. 26. Stephen J. DeCanio et al., New Directions in the Economics and Integrated Assessment of 41. Table 2–2 based on International Energy Global Climate Change (Arlington, VA: Pew Agency (IEA), Dealing With Climate Change: Center on Global Climate Change, October Policies and Measures in IEA Countries (Paris: 2000). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)/IEA, 2000), pp. 24–25; 27. Metz et al., op. cit. note 16, p. 11. Worldwatch assessment of good practices is based on ibid. 28. Ibid. 42. IEA, op. cit. note 41; “Economic Man, 29. Ibid. Cleaner Planet,” Economist, 29 September 2001, pp. 73–75; OECD, Environmentally 30. Ibid. Related Taxes in OECD Countries: Issues and Strategies (Paris: October 2001). 31. Ibid., pp. 11–12. 43. IEA, op. cit. note 41, pp. 26–33; OECD, 32. Ibid., p. 12. op. cit. note 42.

33. Ibid. 44. IEA, op. cit. note 41, pp. 33–37.

206 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 2

45. U.K. Department for Environment, Food ington, DC: World Resources Institute, June & Rural Affairs, “£215m Scheme Offers UK 2001). Firms Chance to Be World Leaders,” press release (London: 15 August 2001); idem, 50. Kimberly O’Neill Packard and Forest Rein- Framework for the UK Emissions Trading Scheme hardt, “What Every Executive Needs to Know (London: August 2001). About Global Warming,” Harvard Business Review, July–August 2000, pp. 128–36. 46. IEA, op. cit. note 41, pp. 38–40. 51. Forest Reinhardt and Kimberly O’Neill 47. Ibid.; U.N. Environment Programme Packard, “A Business Manager’s Approach to (UNEP) and World Energy Council, “Up to Climate Change,” in Eileen Claussen, Vicky Two Billion Tons of Carbon Dioxide Saved by Arroyo Cochran, and Debra P. Davis, eds., Cli- Cleaner Energy Schemes by 2005; Industry Act- mate Change: Science, Strategies, and Solutions ing to Fight Global Warming Despite Political (Boston: Brill, 2001), pp. 269–79; Packard and Disagreements Over Kyoto,” press release Reinhardt, op. cit. note 50, p. 135. (Nairobi and London: 29 June 2001). 52. Reinhardt and Packard, op. cit. note 51; 48. IEA, op. cit. note 41, pp. 40–41; cuts from John Palmisano, “Hedging Corporate Risks local governments from International Council Associated With Greenhouse Gas Controls,” for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), Evolution Markets Executive Brief, 27 August Local Government Implementation of Climate 2001. Protection: Case Studies (Toronto: 1997); John J. Fialka, “As the Federal Government Shies 53. Davignon quoted in Michael Mann, “Cor- Away, States Step Up Efforts to Curb Pollu- porate Chiefs Give Backing to Kyoto Pact,” tion,” Wall Street Journal, 11 September 2001; Financial Times, 11 July 2001. Gary Polakovic, “States Taking the Initiative to Fight Global Warming,” Los Angeles Times, 7 54. Fred L. Smith and Robert Crandall, Cato

October 2001; New England Governors/East- Institute, “CO2 Controls are a Bad Idea, Volun- ern Canadian Premiers, Climate Change Action tary or Not” (op-ed), Wall Street Journal, 31 Plan 2001, prepared by the Committee on the July 2001; Ross Gelbspan, The Heat Is On: The Environment and the Northeast International Climate Crisis, the Coverup, the Prescription Committee on Energy of the Conference of (Cambridge, MA: Perseus Publishing, Septem- New England Governors and Eastern Canadian ber 1998); Brad Knickerbocker, “Businesses Premiers, 29–30 March 2001 (Fredericton, Take Greener Stand on Global Warming,” N.B., Canada: 28 August 2001). Box 2–2 based Christian Science Monitor, 24 January 2000; on the following: ICLEI, op. cit. this note; cur- Lester R. Brown, “The Rise and Fall of the rent number of cities in campaign from ICLEI, Global Climate Coalition,” Issue Alert (Wash- at , viewed 12 October ington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 25 July 2001; U.S. and Philippines from Nancy Skinner, 2000); Laurent Belsie, “Firms Climb Toward “Energy Management in Practice: Communities Climate-Neutral,” Christian Science Monitor, 20 Acting to Protect the Climate,” UNEP Industry August 2001. and Environment, January–June 2000, pp. 43–48, and from Nancy Skinner, International 55. Thomas L. Friedman, “A Tiger by the Director, ICLEI Cities for Climate Protection Tail,” New York Times, 1 June 2001; Dick Campaign, Berkeley, CA, e-mail to Molly Shee- Cheney et al., National Energy Policy: Reliable, han, Worldwatch Institute, 28 August 2001. Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America’s Future, Report of the National 49. Kevin A. Baumert and Nancy Kete, The Energy Policy Development Group (Washing- U.S., Developing Countries, and Climate Protec- ton, DC: U.S. Government Printing Ofﬁce, 16 tion: Leadership or Stalemate? Issue Brief (Wash- May 2001).

207 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 2

56. Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies, Futures in Dirty Air,” Washington Post, 5 August “Shell Looks to Energy Futures,” press release 2001; Sandor quoted in Foorohar, op. cit. note (New York: 3 October 2001); Philip Watts, 60; Joyce Foundation, “U.S. Voluntary Carbon Chairman of the Committee of Managing Trading Emerging,” press release (Chicago: 30 Directors, Royal Dutch/Shell Group, “Remarks May 2001); Nikki Tait, “Greenhouse Gas Trade at the Launch of Energy Needs, Choices, and Pos- Scheme Gets Go Ahead,” Financial Times, 30 sibilities—Scenarios to 2050” (New York: 3 May 2001. October 2001); Rick Popely, “H2 Oh: Carmak- ers Move Toward Hydrogen Fuel Cells,” Chica- 62. Christopher Loreti, William Wescott, and go Tribune, 12 August 2001. Michael Isenberg, “Taking Inventory of Green- house Gas Emissions,” in Claussen, Cochran, 57. John Browne, Chief Executive, BP, and Davis, op. cit. note 51, pp. 331–56; “Addressing Global Climate Change,” speech Christopher P. Loreti, Scot A. Foster, and Jane delivered at Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, E. Obbagy, An Overview of Greenhouse Gas Ver- 19 May 1997; Sir John Browne, Group Chief iﬁcation Issues (Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Executive, BP, “Leading a Global Company: Global Climate Change, 2001); Shell from The Case of BP,” speech delivered at Yale School Royal Dutch/Shell, “The Shell Tradeable Emis- of Management, New Haven, CT, 18 Septem- sion Permit System: An Overview,” and “Recent ber 1998; Charles C. Nicholson, Group Senior Progress on Climate Change,” at , viewed 5 October 2001; DuPont from Kyoto,” remarks at Chatham House Confer- Keith Bradsher and Andrew C. Revkin, “A Pre- ence, Delivering Kyoto: Could Europe Do It? Emptive Strike on Global Warming; Many Com- Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, panies Cut Gas Emissions to Head Off Tougher 1 October 2001; Neela Banerjee, “Can Black Regulations,” New York Times, 15 May 2001. Gold Ever Flow Green?” New York Times, 12 Table 2–3 based on the following: Michael Mar- November 2000; BP, “BP Launches New Ad golick and Doug Russell, Corporate Greenhouse Campaign to Engage Public In Energy Issues,” Gas Reduction Targets (Arlington, VA: Pew Cen- press release (London: 5 September 2001). ter on Global Climate Change, November 2001); Environmental Defense, “Global Corpo- 58. Innovest Strategic Value Advisors, Climate rations and Environmental Defense Partner to Change and Shareholder Value: Case Study of BP Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” press (New York: 2001), pp. 3, 6. release (Washington, DC: 17 October 2000); Eric Pianin, “Mexican Company Agrees to 59. UNEP, “Impact of Climate Change to Cost Reduce Emissions,” Washington Post, 5 June the World $US 300 Billion a Year,” press release 2001; Sarah Wade, Environmental Defense, (Nairobi: 3 February 2001); idem, “Financial Washington, DC, discussion with Seth Dunn, 7 Sector Responding to Climate Change,” press September 2001; World Wildlife Fund (WWF), release (Nairobi: 18 July 2001); Vanessa Houl- “Nike Partners With World Wildlife Fund and der, “Raising the Temperature,” Financial the Center for Energy & Climate Solutions to Times, 18 April 2001. Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” press release (Washington, DC: 2 October 2001); 60. Natsource from Rana Foorohar, “The New idem, “What is the Climate Savers Program?” at Green Game,” Newsweek, 27 August 2001; , viewed 5 October

World Bank from “Global Trade in CO2 Emis- 2001; Alcan, “Alcan Inc. to Reduce Greenhouse sions Reaches $100 Million—Study,” Reuters, Gas Emissions by 500,000 Tonnes over Four 3 August 2001; co2e.com in Carl Frankel, “The Years,” press release (Montreal, PQ, Canada: 9 Sky’s the Limit,” Tomorrow, May–June 2000, October 2001); “Kyoto Spurned Is Mixed Bag pp. 24–28. for U.S. Firms” (news roundup), Wall Street Journal, 25 July 2001. Note that some corpo- 61. Sulfur ﬁgure from Ricardo Bayon, “Trading rate targets address greenhouse gas emissions

208 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 2 indirectly through improvements in energy effi- 2001; Vanessa Houlder, “Carbon Trading Plans ciency or the use of renewable energy. Some tar- May Be Hampered by the Politics of Pollution,” gets may also imply the use of tree planting and Financial Times, 14 August 2001. other forms of carbon sequestration. 69. Box 2–3 based on UN FCCC, “Kyoto Pro- 63. Environmental Defense, op. cit. note 62; tocol: Status of Ratification (As of 28 September WWF, “What is the Climate Savers Program?” 2001),” at , viewed 1 October op. cit. note 62; idem, “Nike Partners,” op. cit. 2001, on UN FCCC, “Marrakesh Climate Talks note 62; World Resources Institute and World to Finalize Kyoto Rulebook,” press release Business Council for Sustainable Development, (Marrakesh: 9 October 2001), and on Michael The Greenhouse Gas Protocol: A Corporate Grubb, Jean-Charles Hourcade, and Sebastian Accounting and Reporting Standard (Washing- Oberthur, Keeping Kyoto: A Study of Approaches ton, DC: 2001). to Maintaining the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change (London: Climate Strategies, July 64. Eileen Claussen, “Industry Leaders Accept 2001). the Climate Challenge,” Climate Policy, January 2001, pp. 135–36; “Business Environment 70. UN FCCC, “Marrakesh Climate Talks,” Leadership Council,” at , viewed 5 October 2001; op. cit. note 3; “Summary of the Resumed Sixth Taryn Fransen, Pew Center on Global Climate Session,” op. cit. note 3; “Kyoto Protocol May Change, e-mail to Seth Dunn, 5 October 2001. Be Alive, But Battle Is Far From Over,” Inter- national Environment Reporter, 1 August 2001, 65. “Business Council for Sustainable Energy,” pp. 635–36. at , viewed 5 October 2001; “European Business Council for a Sustainable 71. “In Morocco, Experts Cross the T’s of Energy Future,” at , viewed 5 Kyoto Treaty” (news roundup), Wall Street October 2001; Social Venture Network, “Busi- Journal, 31 October 2001; Hisane Masaki, ness Leaders Call for U.S. Leadership on Global “Japan Ready to Seek Ratification of Kyoto Pro- Warming,” New York Times (advertisement), 21 tocol,” Japan Times, 12 October 2001; Wine- June 2001; Mann, op. cit. note 53. stock, op. cit. note 66; “Kyoto Spurned,” op. cit. note 62. 66. Lisa Hymas, “An Ocean of Difference,” Tomorrow, August 2001, pp. 20–23; Geoff 72. “Japanese Study Predicts Limited Impact Winestock, “The Very Flexible Business of Cut- on Economy if Kyoto Accord Implemented,” ting Emissions,” Wall Street Journal, 27 July International Environment Reporter, 20 June 2001; Jeffrey Ball, “Environmentalists Highlight 2001, pp. 512–13. Firms’ Rifts on International Global-Warming Treaty,” Wall Street Journal, 27 August 2001. 73. Text and Japanese carmaker market share in Yasuhiro Murota, Shonan Environmental 67. U.S. Council in Bradsher and Revkin, op. Research Force, “Will Ratification of the Kyoto cit. note 62; Jacob quoted in Vanessa Houlder, Protocol Result in Economic Loss?” commis- “Winners and Losers Wait for Fog to Clear sioned by World Wide Fund for Nature, 28 June Around Kyoto,” Financial Times, 25 July 2001; 2001; Toyota, “Prius Vision,” at , viewed 5 October 2001; Honda, “Amer- utive quoted in Andrew Revkin, “Some Energy ican Honda Vehicle Sales for September, 2001,” Executives Urge U.S. Shift on Global Warm- at , viewed ing,” New York Times, 1 August 2001. 5 October 2001.

68. “Analysis—CO2 Emissions Trading Long 74. Murota, op. cit. note 73. Way Off Despite Kyoto Deal,” Reuters, 27 July

209 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTERS 2 AND 3

75. Text and Blok quote from Mirjam Domestic Climate Change Policy,” Climate Pol- Harmelink et al., ECOFYS Energy and Environ- icy, August–September 2001, pp. 381–95; Vicki ment, “Kyoto Without the U.S.: Costs and Ben- Arroyo Cochran and Manik Roy, “Climate efits of EU Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol,” Change Legislation in the United States,” in commissioned by World Wide Fund for Nature, Claussen, Cochran, and Davis, op. cit. note 51, July 2001. pp. 361–71; Congressional Budget Office, An Evaluation of Cap-and-Trade Programs for 76. Jon E. Hilsenrath, “Eco-Economists Back Reducing U.S. Carbon Emissions (Washington, Bush on Kyoto Pact,” Wall Street Journal, 7 DC: June 2001); Eileen Claussen and Eliot August 2001; David G. Victor, The Collapse of Diringer, “The Climate Challenge Begins At the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Glob- Home” (op ed), Washington Post, 19 August al Warming (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Universi- 2001. ty Press, 2001). 84. “Summary of the Resumed Sixth Session,” 77. Michael Grubb, “A Constructive Scheme op. cit. note 3; “Koizumi Tells Cabinet to Draft Unraveled?” Nature, 12 April 2001, pp. GHG Strategy; Japanese Firm Inks Emissions 750–01. Trade Accord,” International Environment Reporter, 15 August 2001; Masaki, op. cit. note 78. Pronk quote in “Summary of the Resumed 71. Sixth Session,” op. cit. note 3, p. 13; Benito Muller, Axel Michaelova, and Christian Vrolijk, 85. Joseph Nye, “The Limits of Change,” Rejecting Kyoto: A Study of Proposed Alternatives Financial Times, 14 September 2001; “Summa- to the Kyoto Protocol, pre-publication copy for ry of the Resumed Sixth Session,” op. cit. note general distribution (London: Climate Strate- 3; Vanessa Houlder, “Warming to the Kyoto gies, July 2001). Protocol,” Financial Times, 24 July 2001; Joseph E. Aldy, Peter R. Orszag, and Joseph E. 79. Grubb, Hourcade, and Oberthur, op. cit. Stiglitz, “Climate Change: An Agenda for Glob- note 69; Climate Strategies, “New International al Collective Action,” prepared for the confer- Research Organisation Argues that the Kyoto ence on The Timing of Climate Change Policies, Protocol Can and Must be Rescued by the EU, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arling- Japan, and Russia—and That the US Will Then ton, VA, October 2001; Pew Center on Global Come Back In,” press release (London: 10 July Climate Change, “Nobel Prize Recipient Dr. 2001). Joseph E. Stiglitz Calls for Immediate Action Against Climate Change,” press release (Arling- 80. Grubb, Hourcade, and Oberthur, op. cit. ton, VA: 11 October 2001). note 69. Chapter 3. Farming in the Public 81. Edward A. Parson, “Moving Beyond the Interest Kyoto Impasse” (op ed), New York Times, 31 July 2001. 1. Roland Bunch, COSECHA, Tegucigalpa, Honduras, discussion with author, 5 May 2001. 82. Ibid.; Multilateral Fund from Richard Eliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in 2. Roland Bunch, “Increasing Productivity Safeguarding the Planet (Cambridge, MA: Har- Through Agroecological Approaches: Experi- vard University Press, 1991). ences from Hillside Agriculture in Central America,” in Norman Uphoff, ed., Agroecologi- 83. David E. Rosenbaum, “Senate Committee cal Innovations: Increasing Food Production with United in Seeking Bush Action on Emissions,” Participatory Development (London: Earthscan, New York Times, 2 August 2001; Henry Lee, forthcoming); Roland Bunch and Gabinó Vicky Arroyo Cochran, and Manik Roy, “US Lòpez, Soil Recuperation in Central America:

210 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 3

Sustaining Innovation After Intervention, Gate- and Human Values, June 1999, pp. 169–85; keeper Series No. 55 (London: International Green Revolution from Lori Ann Thrupp, Cul- Institute for Environment and Development tivating Diversity: Agrobiodiversity and Food (IIED), 1995), p. 12. Security (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 1998), p. 21. 3. Bunch, op. cit. note 2. 11. Jeffrey A. McNeely and Sara J. Scherr, 4. Ibid. Common Ground, Common Future: How Eco- agriculture Can Help Feed the World and Save 5. Ibid.; Zelaya quote from Jules Pretty, Uni- Wild Biodiversity (Gland, Switzerland: World versity of Essex, Colchester, U.K., discussion Conservation Union–IUCN, May 2001); David with author, 24 September 2001. Tilmen et al., “Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change,” Science, 13 6. World Neighbors, Lessons from the Field, April 2001, p. 281. Reasons for Resiliency: Toward a Sustainable Recovery after Hurricane Mitch (Oklahoma City, 12. Calorie intake provided by 30 plants from OK: 2000). FAO, The State of the World’s Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (Rome: 7. Agriculture is the focus of chapters 14 and 1997), p. 14; China from ibid., p. 34, with pre- 32 of Agenda 21, the blueprint for change sent-day update from Zhonghu He, Interna- adopted at the U.N. Conference on Environ- tional Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, ment and Development, though issues related to e-mail to author, 10 October 2001. agriculture are mentioned throughout the document; synergies between agricultural policies in 13. Landscape structures from Organisation for Jules Pretty and Rachel Hine, Reducing Food Economic Co-operation and Development Poverty with Sustainable Agriculture: A Summa- (OECD), Environmental Indicators for Agricul- ry of New Evidence, Executive Summary (Colch- ture: Methods and Results, Executive Summary ester, U.K.: SAFE-World Research Project, (Paris: 2000), p. 42; farmland birds from Pretty University of Essex, February 2001), p. 8. et al., op. cit. note 9, p. 125.

8. Figure 3–1 from U.N. Food and Agricul- 14. Cropland in just two species from U.S. ture Organization (FAO), FAOSTAT Statistics Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Database, at , updated 2 May Agricultural Statistics Service, 1997 Census of 2001; food prices from International Monetary Agriculture (Washington, DC: February 1999). Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics Yearbooks (Washington, DC: various years). 15. Nitrate and pesticide levels in groundwater from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), The 9. J. N. Pretty et al., “An Assessment of the Quality of Our Nation’s Waters—Nutrients and Total External Costs of UK Agriculture,” Agri- Pesticides (Reston, VA: 1999); soil quality from cultural Systems, August 2000, pp. 113–36; Phil Barak, University of Wisconsin-Madison, health care costs associated with poor diets in “Acidiﬁcation from Fertilizer Use Linked to Soil the United Kingdom are conservatively estimat- Aging,” press release, 3 March 1999; share of ed at over $3 billion, according to Mike Rayner, our crop lost to pests from Montague Yudelman Department of Public Health, Oxford Universi- et al., Pest Management and Food Production, ty, e-mail to author, 5 October 2001. Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discus- sion Paper 25 (Washington, DC: International 10. Cheap food policies from Tim Lang, “The Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Sep- Complexities of Globalization: The UK as a tember 1998), pp. 7, 13; Figure 3–2 from FAO, Case Study of Tensions Within the Food System Fertilizer Yearbook (Rome: various years) and and the Challenge to Food Policy,” Agriculture from K.G. Soh and M. Prud’homme, Fertilizer

211 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 3

Consumption Report: World and Regional hunger concentrated in the countryside from Overview and Country Reports (Paris: Interna- IFAD, op. cit. this note, pp. 72, 91, 106, 107; tional Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), 800 million estimate based on calculating avail- December 2000); Figure 3–3 from Rob Bryant, able food supplies from FAO, The State of Food Agranova, letter to author, 17 July 2001, adjust- Insecurity in the World (Rome: 2001); Gary ed for inﬂation using U.S. Department of Com- Gardner and Brian Halweil, in Underfed and merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Overfed: The Global Epidemic of Malnutrition, Implicit GNP Price Deﬂator, . Worldwatch Institute, March 2000), provide an estimate of 1.1 billion based on surveys of body 16. R. Alexander et al., “Effect of Stream Chan- weight around the world; number and levels of nel Size on the Delivery of Nitrogen to the Gulf hunger in sub-Saharan Africa from United of Mexico,” Nature, 24 February 2000, pp. Nations, Administrative Committee on Coordi- 758–60. nation, Sub-Committee on Nutrition, Fourth Report on the World Nutrition Situation (Gene- 17. McNeely and Scherr, op. cit. note 11, p. 7; va: January 2000). Robert J. Diaz, “Hypoxia: A Global Perspec- tive” (manuscript), Virginia Institute of Marine 21. Share of food dollar going to farmer from Science, College of William and Mary, Williams- Stewart Smith, University of Maine, letter to burg, VA, sent to author, 22 August 2000. author, 20 August 2000.

18. Irrigated land for 1950 and share of world’s 22. Goal for 1996 and 2001 declaration from grain provided by irrigated land from Sandra FAO, op. cit. note 20; 1974 declaration from Postel, Pillar of Sand (New York: W.W. Norton FAO, at . & Company, 1999), pp. 41–42; irrigated land for 1999 from FAO, op. cit. note 8, updated 10 23. Norman Uphoff, “Challenges Facing World July 2001; continued expansion of irrigated area Agriculture in Our New Century,” in Uphoff, from Postel, op. cit. this note. op. cit. note 2; 1.8 billion from John Pender and Peter Hazell, “Promoting Sustainable Develop- 19. Water table drop from Liu Yonggong and ment in Less-Favored Areas, Overview,” in John John B. Penson, Jr., “China’s Sustainable Agri- Pender and Peter Hazell, eds., Promoting Sus- culture and Regional Implications,” paper pre- tainable Development in Less-Favored Areas, sented to the symposium on Agriculture, Trade 2020 Vision, Focus 4, Brief 1 (Washington, DC: and Sustainable Development in Paciﬁc Asia: IFPRI, November 2000), and from Peter China and Its Trading Partners, Texas A&M Hazell, IFPRI, discussion with author, 19 June University, College Station, TX, 12–14 February 2001. 1998, and from Michael Ma, “Northern Cities Sinking as Water Table Falls,” South China 24. Bunch, op. cit. note 1; Uphoff, op. cit. note Morning Post, 11 August 2001; 10 percent of 23. Box 3–1 based on the following: 100–140 the world’s grain harvest from Postel, op. cit. million children from World Health Organiza- note 18, p. 80; wetlands from McNeely and tion (WHO), “Micronutrient Deficiencies: Scherr, op. cit. note 11, p. 7. Combating Vitamin A Deﬁciency,” , viewed 10 October 2001; 20. Share of poor in rural areas and higher rural amount of Golden Rice needed for necessary vit- rates of poverty from International Fund for amins from Greenpeace, “Genetically Engi- Agricultural Development (IFAD), Rural neered ‘Golden Rice’ is Fool’s Gold,” press Poverty Report 2001 (New York: Oxford Univer- release (Manila/Amsterdam, 9 February 2001); sity Press, 2001), pp. 15, 21; U.S. rural poverty Richard Lewontin, “Genes in the Food!” The from “Farm Families Flock to Food Banks,” New York Review, 21 June 2001; concentration AgJournal, 29 July 2001; rural indicators and of transgenic crops from Clive James, Global

212 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 3

Review of Commercialized Transgenic Crops: tural Intensiﬁcation,” in Uphoff, op. cit. note 2, 2000, ISAAA Brief No. 21 (Ithaca, NY: Interna- and from Rick Welsh, The Economics of Organic tional Service for the Acquisition of Agri- Grain and Soybean Production in the Midwestern Biotech Applications, 2000); U.N. United States, Henry A. Wallace Institute for Development Programme, “Although Contro- Alternative Agriculture, Policy Studies Report versial, GMOs Could Be Breakthrough Technol- No. 13 (Greenbelt, MD: May 1999). ogy for Developing Countries,” press release for Human Development Report 2001 (New York: 31. Neglect of arid areas and advantages of 10 July 2001). smaller schemes from IFAD, op. cit. note 20, pp. 92, 94, and from Sandra Postel, Global 25. Uphoff, op. cit. note 23. Water Policy Project, discussion with author, 23 August 2001; focus on irrigated areas from Peter 26. Pretty and Hine, op. cit. note 7, pp. 10, 48; Hazell, IFPRI, discussion with author, 19 June Jules Pretty, University of Essex, Colchester, 2001; tassas example from Pretty and Hine, op. U.K., e-mail to author, 26 September 2001. cit. note 7, pp. 123–24.

27. Nutrient depletion rates from Julio Henao 32. Gal Oya from C. M. Wijayaratna and Nor- and Carlos Baanante, Nutrient Depletion in the man Uphoff, “Farmer Organization in Gala Agricultural Soils of Africa (Washington, DC: Oya: Improving Irrigation Management in Sri IFPRI, October 1999), and from Stanley Wood Lanka,” in Anirudh Krishna et al., eds., Reasons et al., Agroecosystems: Pilot Analysis of Global for Hope: Instructive Experiences in Rural Devel- Ecosystems (Washington, DC: IFPRI and World opment (Bloomfield, CT: Kumarian Press, Resources Institute, 2000), p. 52; improved fal- 1997), pp. 166–83; Norman Uphoff and C. M. low from Pedro Sanchez, “Benefits from Agro- Wijayaratna, “Demonstrated Benefits from forestry in Africa, with Examples from Kenya Social Capital: The Productivity of Farmer and Zambia,” in Uphoff, op. cit. note 2, and Organizations in Gal Oya, Sri Lanka,” World from Pedro Sanchez, International Centre for Development, November 2000. Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF), discussion with author, 16 February 2001. 33. Uphoff and Wijayaratna, op. cit. note 32; Postel, op. cit. note 18, p. 11. 28. Norman Uphoff, “Opportunities for Rais- ing Yields by Changing Management Practices: 34. Underappreciation of women in agriculture The System of Rice Intensification in Madagas- from Jules Pretty, Ruerd Ruben, and Lori Ann car,” in Uphoff, op. cit. note 2. Thrupp, “Policies and Institutional Changes,” in Uphoff, op. cit. note 2; female-headed house- 29. Arie Kuyvenhoven and Ruerd Ruben, holds in India and migration from Bina Agarw- “Economic Considerations for Sustainable Agri- al, “Disinherited Peasants, Disadvantaged cultural Intensification,” in Uphoff, op. cit. note Workers: A Gender Perspective on Land and 2; SRI from Norman Uphoff, Cornell Universi- Livelihood,” Economic and Political Weekly, ty, discussion with author, 23 March 2001. March 1998, pp. 2–14, and from Ruth Meinzen-Dick et al., Gender, Property Rights, 30. Sahelian project described in Pretty and and Natural Resources, FCND Discussion Paper Hine, op. cit. note 7, pp. 124–25, and in No. 29 (Washington, DC: IFPRI, May 1997), p. Amadou Makhtar Diop, “Organic Input Man- 27; 2 percent of land worldwide from Katherine agement to Increase Food Production in Sene- Spengler, “Expansion of Third World Women’s gal,” in Uphoff, op. cit. note 2; more than half Empowerment: The Emergence of Sustainable the children malnourished from FAO, op. cit. Development and the Evolution of Internation- note 20; more stable levels of productivity from al Economic Strategy,” Colorado Journal of Arie Kuyvenhoven and Ruerd Ruben, “Eco- International Environmental Law and Policy, nomic Considerations for Sustainable Agricul- summer 2001, p. 320; biases against women

213 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 3 from ibid., and from IFAD, op. cit. note 21, p. tember 2001; worldwide from International 87; five African nations from FAO, “Women Labour Organisation, Sustainable Agriculture in Feed the World,” prepared for World Food Day, a Globalized Economy, Report for discussion at 16 October 1998 (Rome: 1998). the Tripartite Meeting on Moving to Sustainable Agricultural Development through the Modern- 35. Liz Alden Wily, Land Tenure Reform and ization of Agriculture and Employment in a the Balance of Power in Eastern and Southern Globalized Economy (Geneva: 2000), p. 22. Africa, ODI Natural Resource Perspectives 58 (London: Overseas Development Institute, June 37. Uphoff, op. cit. note 29; Chris Reij and 2000); Liz Alden Wily, Overseas Development Ann Waters-Bayer, eds., Farmer Innovation in Institute, e-mail to author, 7 June 2001; yield Africa: A Source of Inspiration for Agricultural increases of 20 percent from A. Quisumbing, Development (London: Earthscan, October “Male-Female Differences in Agricultural Pro- 2001); Ann Waters Bayer, ETC Ecoculture ductivity,” World Development, October 1996, Netherlands, discussion with author, 5 April pp. 1579–95; weeding technique from D. Elson, 2001; Jules Pretty, “Social and Human Capital “Gender Awareness in Modeling Structural for Sustainable Agriculture,” in Uphoff, op. cit. Adjustment,” World Development, November note 2. 1995, pp. 1851–68. 38. San Martin from Bunch, op. cit. note 2; 36. Families without land ownership rights farmer field schools in Latin America and gener- from Roy L. Prosterman and Tim Hanstad, al importance of this approach to farmer learn- Land Reform: A Revised Agenda for the 21st ing from Pretty and Hine, op. cit. note 7, pp. Century, Rural Development Institute, RDI 15, 65. Reports on Foreign Aid and Development No. 108 (Seattle, WA: Rural Development Institute, 39. FAO, op. cit. note 8; nearly 40 percent July 2000), p. 1; effects of lack of ownership includes cropland and rangeland. from ibid., from IFAD, op. cit. note 20, p. 71, and from Arie Kuyvenhoven and Ruerd Ruben, 40. Youyung Zhu et al., “Genetic Diversity and “Economic Considerations for Sustainable Agri- Disease Control in Rice,” Nature, 17 August cultural Intensification,” in Uphoff, op. cit. note 2000, pp. 718–21; rye and nitrogen from Paul 2; improved fallow from F. Ksweige et al., “The Porter, Department of Agronomy and Plant Effect of Short Rotation Sesbania sesban Planted Genetics, University of Minnesota, “Precipita- Fallows on Maize Yield,” Forest Ecology and tion and Runoff in the Cottonwood River Management, April 1994, pp. 199–208. Table Watershed: an Historical Perspective with a 3–1 from the following: Zimbabwe from Jon Future Vision of a Cropping System Involving a Jeter, “Africa’s Racial Land Divide,” Washington Cereal Rye Cover Crop,” at . Namibia from Rachel L. Swarns, “The West Sees One Mugabe, but Africa Sees Another,” New 41. “Algeria to Convert Large Cereal Land to York Times, 6 August 2000; Stephen Buckley, Tree-Planting,” Reuters, 8 December 2000. “Brazil Unveils Agrarian Reform Program,” Washington Post, 5 July 2000; Department of 42. Jeffrey A. McNeely, IUCN, Gland, Switzer- Agriculture and Co-operation, Ministry of Agri- land, discussion with author, 4 June 2001; culture, Government of India, “Agricultural Sta- McNeely and Scherr, op. cit. note 11, pp. 10, tistics at a Glance,” , viewed 4 September 2001; U.S. data are for 1998 from USDA, National Agri- 43. Ademir Calegari, “The Spread and Benefits cultural Statistics Service, U.S. and State Data, of No-Till Agriculture in Paraná State, Brazil,” “Farm Numbers and Land in Farms,” at in Uphoff, op. cit. note 2; half of state in no-till , viewed 4 Sep- from Pretty and Hine, op. cit. note 7, p. 67. Box

214 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 3

3–2 from the following: Michael Janofsky, and Europe (Colchester, U.K.: South Dakota “Plague of Crickets Does $25 Million Damage State University Economics Staff Paper 2001-1 to Crops in Utah,” New York Times, June 18, and University of Essex Centre for Environment 2001; “China Suffers Worst Locust Attack in and Society Occasional Paper 2001-1, March Years,” Agence France Presse, 18 June 2001; 2001), p. 7. FAO, Committee on Agriculture, 16th Session, “Climate Variability and Change: A Challenge 49. Pretty et al., op. cit. note 9, p. 131; food for Sustainable Agricultural Production,” Rome, safety connection from Dan Bilefsky, “EU’s 26–30 March 2001, p. 3; amounts of carbon Women Farm Ministers Espouse ‘Green’ Agri- stored in temperate and tropical soils and trees culture,” Financial Times, 7 March 2001, and from Pretty and Hine, op. cit. note 7, p. 16, and from Renate Künast, “The Magic Hexagon,” from John O. Niles et al., “Potential Carbon The Ecologist, April 2001; distribution of farm Mitigation and Income in Developing Countries payments from OECD, Agricultural Policies in from Changes in Use and Management of Agri- OECD Countries: Monitoring and Evaluation cultural and Forest Lands,” Centre for Environ- 2000 (Paris: 2000), p. 47. ment and Society Occasional Paper 2001–04, University of Essex, U.K., July 2001; three times 50. OECD, op. cit. note 13, p. 15; 85 percent from Pedro A. Sanchez, “Linking Climate from Dave Serﬂing, Land Stewardship Project, Change Research with Food Security and Pover- testimony to Hearing on Conservation on ty Reduction in the Tropics,” Agriculture, Working Lands, Agriculture Committee, U.S. Ecosystems and Environment, December 2000, Senate, Washington, DC, 2 August 2001. p. 378; Chiapas example from McNelly and Scherr, op. cit. note 11, p. 20. 51. “Greening the edges” is an expression used by Dobbs and Pretty, op. cit. note 48, p. 6; 44. Soil Association, The Biodiversity Beneﬁts of room for change under existing laws from Franz Organic Farming (Bristol, U.K.: May 2000). Fischler, European Commissioner for Agricul- ture, “A Three-Pronged Reform: The Common 45. Ibid. Agricultural Policy Should be Adapted to Changing Consumer Needs—But Not 46. Pretty and Hine, op. cit. note 7, p. 75; Scraped,” Financial Times, 8 May 2001; fund- Dave Brubaker from “Global Resource Center ing for U.S. conservation from Jules Pretty et al., for the Environment (GRACE) Calls for a Tax “Policy Challenges and Priorities for Internalis- on Factory Farm Meat,” press release, at ing the Externalities of Modern Agriculture,” , 14 June 2001; fastest Journal of Environmental Planning and Man- growing form of meat production from Cees de agement, forthcoming; details on France from Haan et al., “Livestock & the Environment: Dobbs and Pretty, op. cit. note 48, pp. 1, 17. Finding a Balance,” report of a study coordinated by FAO, U.S. Agency for International 52. Nicolas Lampkin, University of Wales, Development, and World Bank (Brussels: 1997), Aberystwyth, U.K., “Organic Farming in the p. 53. European Union—Overview, Policies and Per- spectives,” paper presented at the EU confer- 47. Pretty and Hine, op. cit. note 7, p. 131. ence Organic Farming in the European Union—Perspectives for the 21st Century, Vien- 48. Ibid., p. 74; OECD, Agricultural Policies na, 27–28 May 1999; Figure 3–4 from Univer- in OECD Countries: Monitoring and Evaluation sity of Wales, Aberystwyth, European Organic 2001 (Paris: 2001), pp. 25, 178, 183–84; barri- Farming Statistics, at , viewed 18 September 2001. Jules N. Pretty, The United Kingdom’s Experi- ence with Agri-environmental Stewardship 53. Pretty and Hine, op. cit. note 7, p. 74; Kris- Schemes: Lessons and Issues for the United States ten Corselius et al., Sustainable Agriculture:

215 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 3

Making Money, Making Sense (Minneapolis, tem,” Report to the National Farmers Union, 5 MN: Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, February 1999; Hong Kong retail from Tim March 2001), pp. 9, 32; Welsh, op. cit. note 30, Lang, Thames Valley University, London, dis- p. 41. cussion with author, 14 June 2001.

54. Michael Lipton, University of Sussex, 57. Lipton, op. cit. note 54; West Africa from “Rural Poverty Reductions: Are We Winning the Christopher Delgado et al., “Agricultural War?” presentation at the World Bank, Washing- Growth Linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa,” IFPRI ton, DC, 31 October 2000; aid to agriculture Research Report 107 (Washington, DC: IFPRI, from IFAD, op. cit. note 20, pp. 1–2, 229; December 1998), p. xii; Japan, South Korea, World Bank commitments from IFAD, Annual and Taiwan from Peter Rosset, “The Multiple Report (Rome: 2001), p. 9. Functions and Beneﬁts of Small Farm Agricul- ture,” Policy Brief No. 4 (Oakland, CA: Food- 55. Reduction of services from Deborah Bryce- first/Institute for Food and Development son, ed., Disappearing Peasantries? Rural Policy, September 1999), pp. 12–13. Labour in Africa, Asia, and Latin America (London: Intermediate Technology Publica- 58. IFAD, op. cit. note 20, p. 2; Brazil from tions, 2000), pp. 54, 304–05; Rafael Mariano, Rosset, op. cit. note 57, pp. 11–12. Peasant Movement of the Philippines, e-mail to author, 5 August 1999. 59. Higher labor requirements of ecological agriculture from Corselius et al., op. cit. note 53, 56. National Farmers Union (Canada), “The p. 33, and from Arie Kuyvenhoven and Ruerd Farm Crisis, EU Subsidies, and Agribusiness Ruben, “Economic Considerations for Sustain- Market Power,” presentation to the Senate able Agricultural Intensiﬁcation,” in Uphoff, op. Standing Committee on Agriculture and cit. note 2; India examples from Pretty and Forestry, Ottawa, ON, Canada, 17 February Hine, op. cit. note 7, p. 61. 2000. Table 3–2 from the following: pesticide and seed market from “Globalization, Inc., 60. Prosterman and Hanstad, op. cit. note 36, Concentration in Corporate Power: The pp. 8, 11; general discussion of land rights Unmentioned Agenda,” Communique (Win- included in Klaus Deininger, “Land Tenure, nipeg, MN, Canada: ETC Group (formerly Investment, and Land Values: Evidence from RAFI), 5 September 2001); vegetable seeds Uganda,” World Bank, 5 March 2001, unpub- from “The Gene Giants: Update on Consolida- lished paper, pp. 2–3; India and China from tion in the Life Industry,” Communique (Win- IFAD, op. cit. note 20, pp. 74–76. nipeg, MN, Canada: Rural Advancement Foundation International, 30 March 1999); 61. Bina Agarwal, A Field of One’s Own: Gen- trade statistics and retailers in Europe from File- der and Land Rights in South Asia (Cambridge: man Torres et al., “Agriculture in the Early XXI Cambridge University Press, 1994), see especial- Century: Agrodiversity and Pluralism as a Con- ly p. 487; IFAD, op. cit. note 20, p. 171. tribution to Address Issues on Food Security, Poverty, and Natural Resource Conservation” 62. Pretty and Hine, op. cit. note 7, pp. 10, 17; (draft) (Rome: Global Forum on Agricultural Jules Pretty et al., “Policies and Institutional Research, April 2000), p. 14; chicken purchases Changes,” in Uphoff, op. cit. note 2; Jim Chea- in Central America and retail sector in Brazil tle, Director, Association for Better Land Hus- from William Vorley and Julio Berdegué, “The bandry, Nairobi, Kenya, discussion with author, Chains of Agriculture,” World Summit on Sus- 12 February 2001; IFAD, op. cit. note 20, pp. tainable Development Opinion (London: IIED, vi, 161–73. May 2001); beef and pork packing from William Heffernan, University of Missouri, Columbia, 63. Diane Carney, Approaches to Sustainable “Consolidation in the Food and Agriculture Sys- Livelihoods for the Rural Poor, ODI Poverty

216 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 3

Brief (London: Overseas Development Insti- The Living Land (London: Earthscan, 1998), p. tute, 2 January 1999); gap between rural and 283; “PCC Farmland Fund Rescues Its First urban areas and greater impact of extra invest- Farm: Fund Created by PCC Natural Markets ment in rural areas from IFAD, op. cit. note 20, Saves Strategic Growing Area for Organics,” pp. 6, 101–02, 105–06; Xiabo Zhang and press release (Seattle, WA: PCC Farmland Fund, Shenggen Fan, Public Investment and Regional 11 April 2000); Scott Hayes, Landcare Policy Inequality in Rural China, Environment and and Program Section, Agriculture, Fisheries and Production Technology Division (Washington, Forestry Australia, e-mail to author, 17 July DC: IFPRI, December 2000), p. 23. 2001.

64. Peter Uvin, The International Organiza- 71. Ernesto Mendez, Agroecology Program, tion of Hunger (London: Kegan Paul Interna- University of California, Santa Cruz, discussion tional, 1994); FAO, “Issues and Options in the with author, 20 June 2001. Forthcoming WTO Negotiations from the Per- spective of Developing Countries, Paper No 3: 72. William Vorley, Agribusiness and Power Synthesis of Country Case Studies,” FAO Sym- Relations in the Agri-Food Chain (draft), back- posium on Agriculture, Trade and Food Securi- ground paper (London: IIED, June 2000), ty, Geneva, 23–24 September 1999, p. 4; Global p. 21. Trade Watch, Down on the Farm: NAFTA’s Seven-Years War on Farmers and Ranchers in the 73. Based on a statement developed at the U.S., Canada, and Mexico (Washington, DC: International Federation for Alternative Trade Public Citizen, June 2001). Annual General Meeting in May 1999, at ; $400 mil- 65. Sophia Murphy, Trade and Food Security: lion from Fair Trade Federation, “Fair Trade An Assessment of the Uruguay Round Agreement Facts,” at , viewed 1 October 2001. International Relations, 1999); increased barriers in industrial nations from OECD, op. cit. 74. WHO in collaboration with U.N. Environ- note 48, p. 11; Michael Windfuhr, FIAN, dis- ment Programme, Public Health Impact of Pes- cussion with author, 11 February 2001. ticides Used in Agriculture (Geneva: 1990); pesticide-intensive nature of export crops from 66. “The Pleasures of Eating,” in Wendell Lori Ann Thrupp, Bittersweet Harvest for Glob- Berry, What Are People For? (New York: North al Supermarkets: Challenges in Latin America’s Point Press, 1990); Scott Kilman, “Monsanto Agricultural Export Boom (Washington, DC: Co. Shelves Seed That Turned Out To Be A World Resources Institute, 1995). Dud Of A Spud,” Wall Street Journal, 21 March 2001. 75. Lang, op. cit. note 10; hormone dispute from “EU and US Claim Beef ‘Victory,’” 67. Renate Künast, “The Magic Hexagon,” Financial Times, 16 January 1998, and from The Ecologist, April 2001, p. 48; Dan Bilefsky, “Beef Hormones: EU Pushes for Compensation “EU’s Women Farm Ministers Espouse ‘Green’ Deal with US,” Wall Street Journal, 14 Septem- Agriculture,” Financial Times, 7 March 2001. ber 2000.

68. OECD, op. cit. note 49, pp. 11, 165–66. 76. Lang, op. cit. note 10; Slow Food statistics from , viewed 21 August 69. Don Wyse, Department of Agronomy and 2001. Plant Genetics, University of Minnesota, discussion with author, 23 May 2001. 77. Transportation and storage as big energy users and sources of greenhouse gas emissions 70. German water companies from Jules Pretty, from Andrew Jones, Sustain, London, e-mail to

217 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTERS 3 AND 4 author, 23 June 2001; United Kingdom from tecting Public Health & the Environment: Imple- Food Miles—Still on the Road to Ruin? (London: menting the Precautionary Principle (Washing- Sustain–The Alliance for Better Food and Farm- ton, DC: Island Press, 1999). ing, October 1999), p. 6; distance to Chicago market from Rich Pirog et al., Food, Fuel, and 4. Chapter 19, “Environmentally Sound Man- Freeways: An Iowa Perspective on How Far Food agement of Toxic Chemicals, Including Preven- Travels, Fuel Usage, and Greenhouse Gas Emis- tion of Illegal International Traffic in Toxic and sions (Ames, IA: Leopold Center for Sustainable Dangerous Products,” in Agenda 21, at Agriculture, Iowa State University, 2001), p. 1; . Wood, “Coming Soon to City Near You: A Farm,” Christian Science Monitor, 3 January 5. David Kriebel et al., “The Precautionary 2001. Principle in Environmental Science,” Environ- mental Health Perspectives, September 2001, pp. 78. Iowa Project from Pirog et al., op. cit. note 871–76. 77, pp. 1–2 (the ranges depend on the system and truck type used to move the food). 6. Terry Collins, “Toward Sustainable Chem- istry,” Science, 5 January 2001, pp. 48–49; Ken- 79. USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, neth Geiser, Materials Matter: Toward a Innovative Marketing Opportunities for Small Sustainable Materials Policy (Cambridge, MA: Farmers: Local Schools as Customers (Washing- The MIT Press, 2001), pp. 1–3, 55–81. ton, DC: February 2000); Rich Pirog, Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture, Iowa State 7. Sales in 1998 from Organisation for Eco- University, Ames, IA, discussion with author, 20 nomic Co-operation and Development June 2001. (OECD), OECD Environmental Outlook for the Chemicals Industry (Paris: 2001), p. 10. Chapter 4. Reducing Our Toxic Burden 8. Energy from OECD, op. cit. note 7, p. 42; 1. U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), water use from ibid., pp. 45–46. Report of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for an International Legally Binding 9. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Instrument for Implementing International (EPA), Office of Environmental Information, Action on Certain Persistent Organic Pollutants “TRI On-site and Off-site Reported Releases (in on the Work of Its Fifth Session, fifth session, held pounds), All Chemicals, By Industry, U.S., in Johannesburg, 4–9 December 2000 (Geneva: 1999,” TRI Explorer, 12 October 2001; Figure UNEP Chemicals, 26 December 2000). 4–1 based on Hemamala Hettige et al., The Industrial Pollution Projection System, Policy 2. John Buccini, Chair of UNEP Negotiations Research Working Paper No. 1431 (Part 2) on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and (Washington, DC: World Bank, December Interim Chair of the Stockholm Convention on 1994). POPs, presentation at the World Bank, Wash- ington, DC, 21 June 2001; Stockholm Conven- 10. Pesticide usage of 2.5 million tons from tion on POPs, at . (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1995), p. 50; magnitude from Polly Short and Theo 3. Mary O’Brien, Making Better Environmen- Colborn, “Pesticide Use in the U.S. and Policy tal Decisions: An Alternative to Risk Assessment Implications: A Focus on Herbicides,” Toxicolo- (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2000); Car- gy and Industrial Health, vol. 15, nos. 1–2 olyn Raffensperger and Joel Tickner, eds., Pro- (1999), p. 240; 71 percent from Environmental

218 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 4

Defense Fund (EDF), Toxic Ignorance: The Con- 16. Industrial ecology from Tim Jackson, Mate- tinuing Absence of Basic Health Testing for Top- rial Concerns: Pollution, Proﬁt, and Quality of Selling Chemicals in the United States (New Life (New York: Routledge, 1996); Joe Thorn- York: 1997); less than 10 percent from Geiser, ton, Pandora’s Poison: Chlorine, Health, and a op. cit. note 6, p. 179; Figure 4–2 from OECD, New Environmental Strategy (Cambridge, MA: op. cit. note 7, pp. 115–16. The MIT Press, 2000), pp. 229–58.

11. Factors in developing countries from 17. Thornton, op. cit. note 16; 60 percent from OECD, op. cit. note 7, pp. 26–27; specialty Robert Ayres, “The Life-Cycle of Chlorine, Part chemicals from ibid., pp. 36–37. I: Chlorine Production and the Chlorine-Mer- cury Connection,” Journal of Industrial Ecology, 12. Production of 25 million tons from Chem- vol. 1, no. 1 (1997), p. 83; Sterns quote from ical Market Associates Inc., “Polyvinyl Chlo- Ivan Amato, “The Crusade to Ban Chlorine,” ride,” PVC Insight, 21 January 2000, p. 1, from Garbage, summer 1994. “Chemical Market Associates Inc.’s Industry Report,” PVC Insight, 10 April–1 May 2000, p. 18. EDF, op. cit. note 10; European Environ- 1, and for Asia from Aida M. Jebens, “Polyvinyl ment Agency (EEA) and UNEP Regional Ofﬁce Chloride (PVC) Resins,” CEH [Chemical Eco- for Europe, Chemicals in the European Environ- nomics Handbook] Marketing Research Report ment: Low Doses, High Stakes? (Copenhagen: (Zurich: SRI International, 1997), p. EEA, September 1998), pp. 8–10. 580.1880G. 19. Figure 4–3 from Geiser, op. cit. note 6, p. 13. Figure of 40 percent from U.N. Food and 339; general discussion from ibid., pp. 336–40; Agriculture Organization (FAO), FAOSTAT P. Barry Ryan, Kelly A. Scanlon, and David L. Statistics Database, at , viewed 5 MacIntosh, “Analysis of Dietary Intake of October 2000; 35 tons from Janet N. Selected Metals in the NHEXAS-Maryland Abramovitz and Ashley T. Mattoon, Paper Cuts Investigation,” Environmental Health Perspec- Recovering the Paper Landscape, Worldwatch tives, February 2001, p. 121; Daniel Pruzin, Paper 149 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Insti- “UN/ECE Draft Protocol on Heavy Metals, tute, December 1999), p. 51; global production Persistent Organic Pollutants Concluded,” from Ashley T. Mattoon, “Paper Piles Up,” in International Environment Reporter, 18 Febru- Lester R. Brown, Michael Renner and Brian ary 1998; EEA, European Environment Assess- Halweil, Vital Signs 2000 (New York: W.W. Nor- ment 1998 (Copenhagen: 1998), pp. 109–29; ton & Company, 2000), p. 78; Latin America Michiel H. H. Hötte, Jaap van der Vlies, and from FAO, op. cit. this note, and from Mark Wim A. Hafkamp, “Levy on Surface Water in Payne, “Latin America Aims High for Next Cen- the Netherlands,” in Robert Gale and Stephan tury,” Pulp and Paper International, August Barg, eds., Green Budget Reform: An Interna- 1999; Asia from Hou-Main Chang, “Economic tional Casebook of Leading Practices (Winnipeg, Outlook for Asia’s Pulp and Paper Industry,” MN, Canada: International Institute for Sustain- TAPPI Journal, January 1999; current Asia pro- able Development, 1995), pp. 220–30. duction from FAO, op. cit. this note. 20. Mary O. Amdur, John Doull, and Curtis D. 14. Hilary French, Vanishing Borders (New Klaassen, eds., Cassarett and Doull’s Toxicology: York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2000), pp. The Basic Science of Poisons, fourth ed. (New 83–86. York: Pergamon Press, 1991), p. 623.

15. Oil byproducts from OECD, op. cit. note 21. History from Jerome O. Nriagu, “Tales 7, pp. 22–23, and from Geiser, op. cit. note 6, Told in Lead,” Science, 11 September 1998, pp. pp. 67–70, 74–76. 1621–22, from Josef Eisinger, “Sweet Poison,” Natural History, July 1996, pp. 50–51, from

219 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 4

Seth Dunn, “King Coal’s Weakening Grip on Idiosyncracies, and the Decline of Leaded Gaso- Power,” World Watch, September/October line, 1972 to 1992,” Journal of Environment & 1999, pp. 10–19, and from Nicola Pirrone et al., Development, March 1999, pp. 49–69. “Historical Atmospheric Mercury Emissions and Depositions in North America Compared to 27. OECD and UNEP, Phasing Lead Out of Mercury Accumulations in Sedimentary Gasoline: An Examination of Policy Approaches Records,” Atmospheric Environment, vol. 32, in Different Countries (Paris: 1999), p. 3. no. 5 (1998), pp. 929–40; U.S. metals and wood products from Grecia Matos, U.S. Geo- 28. Carolyn Stephens et al., “Box 1. ‘L’Ethyl’ logical Survey, Reston, VA, e-mail to Payal Sam- Freedoms?—Canada Fails in Opposition to U.S. pat, Worldwatch Institute, 17 October 2001; Corporate Power,” in “Health, Sustainability ratios from J. O. Nriagu, “A Global Assessment and Equity: Global Trade in the Brave New of Natural Sources of Atmospheric Trace Met- World,” Global Change & Human Health, vol. als,” Nature, 2 March 1989, pp. 47–49. 1, no. 1 (2000), p. 48; “Ethyl Corp. v. EPA,” 51 F.3d 1053, 1054, 1055 (citing Administrator 22. Geiser, op. cit. note 6, pp. 7–8. Browner’s statements) (D.C. Cir. 1995); EDF, “Producers of Over 70% of US Gasoline Not 23. Jamie Lincoln Kitman, “The Secret History Using MMT,” press release (Washington, DC: of Lead,” The Nation, 20 March 2000, pp. 18 March 1996). 11–44; U.S. production from Geiser, op. cit. note 6, p. 8; Japan from John R. McNeil, Some- 29. Lead sources from Tong, von Schirnding, thing New Under the Sun: An Environmental and Prapamontol, op. cit. note 24, p. 1070; History of the Twentieth-Century World (New Jackson quoted in “Tightrope Walker,” Envi- York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2001), p. 62; ronmental Forum, May/June 2001, p. 58. 90 percent from “Bromide Baron,” Rap Sheet No. 2, at , viewed 14 October note 16, p. 313; North America from Alexander 2001. H. Tullo, “Plastics Additives’ Steady Evolution,” Chemical and Engineering News, 4 December 24. Current blood lead levels from Shilu Tong, 2000, p. 25. Yasmin E. von Schirnding, and Tippawan Prapa- montol, “Environmental Lead Exposure: A 31. Jozef M. Pacyna and Elisabeth G. Pacyna, Public Health Problem of Global Dimensions,” “An Assessment of Global and Regional Emis- Bulletin of the World Health Organization, vol. sions of Trace Metals to the Atmosphere from 78, no. 9 (2000), p. 1069; all living things from Anthropogenic Sources Worldwide,” Environ- Ted Schettler et al., Generations at Risk: Repro- mental Reviews (in press), p. 64 in draft. ductive Health and the Environment (Cam- bridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1999), p. 52; free 32. N. Pirrone, G. J. Keeler, and J. O. Nriagu, lead from Eisinger, op. cit. note 21, p. 52. “Regional Differences in Worldwide Emissions of Mercury to the Atmosphere,” Atmospheric 25. Ethylene dibromide from Kitman, op. cit. Environment, vol. 30 (1996), pp. 2981–87; Asia note 23; development toxic from Environmental from E. G. Pacyna and J. M. Pacyna, “Global Defense, “Methyl Bromide,” at , viewed 12 (in press); Robert B. Finkelman, Harvey E. October 2001; World Meterological Organiza- Belkin, and Baoshan Zheng, “Health Impacts of tion, “Executive Summary,” Scientiﬁc Assessment Domestic Coal Use in China,” Proceedings of the of Ozone Depletion: 1994 (Geneva: 1994), p. 9. National Academy of Sciences, March 1999, pp. 3427–31; source of exposure from Arnold 26. F. G. Hank Hilton, “Income, Liberties, Schecter, “Exposure Assessment: Measurement

220 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 4 of Dioxins and Related Chemicals in Human 35. Hatmakers from Geiser, op. cit. note 6, p. Tissues,” in Arnold Schecter, ed., Dioxins and 112; Akio Mishima, Bitter Sea: The Human Cost Health (New York: Plenum Press, 1994), p. 449. of Minamata Disease (Tokyo: Kosei Publishing Company, 1992); Schettler et al., op. cit. note 33. Amdur, Doull, and Klaassen, op. cit. note 24, p. 61; Bernard Weiss, “Vulnerability of Chil- 20, p. 647; Schettler et al., op. cit. note 24, pp. dren and the Developing Brain to Neurotoxic 57–63; global estimate from Pacyna and Pacyna, Hazards,” Environmental Health Perspectives, op. cit. note 31; lake analogy from “Dangerous June 2000, pp. 375–81. Levels of Mercury Found in New England Rain,” National Wildlife, December/January 36. Tong, von Schirnding, and Prapamontol, 2001, p. 62. op. cit. note 24, p.1071; “Blood and Hair Mer- cury Levels in Young Children and Women of 34. EPA, “Update: National Listing of Fish and Childbearing Age—United States, 1999,” Mor- Wildlife Advisories,” fact sheet (Washington, bidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 2 March DC: April 2001); EPA, “Mercury Update: 2001, pp. 140–43; David S. Salkever, “Updated Impact on Fish Advisories,” fact sheet (Washing- Estimates of Earnings Benefits from Reduced ton, DC: June 2001), p. 4; U.S. Food and Drug Exposure of Children to Environmental Lead,” Administration, Center for Food Safety and Environmental Research, vol. 70 (1995), pp. Applied Nutrition, “An Important Message for 1–6; five IQ points from “Tightrope Walker,” Pregnant Women and Women of Childbearing op. cit. note 29, p. 59. Age Who May Become Pregnant About the Risks of Mercury in Fish,” Consumer Advisory, 37. Tong, von Schirnding, and Prapamontol, March 2001; “Pregnant Women Warned Not to op. cit. note 24, pp. 1072–73; EPA, America’s Eat Shark, Swordfish, Mackerel,” Washington Children and the Environment: A View of Avail- Post, 13 January 2001; Faroe Islands and New able Measures (Washington, DC: 2000); Clean Zealand from National Academy of Sciences, Water Action, Time To Act: Preventing Harm to Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury (Washing- Our Children (Boston, MA: 12 May 2001), p. 3. ton, DC: National Research Council, July 2000). Box 4–1 based on the following: gold 38. Other factors and leaded gasoline in Africa price from Kitco Precious Metals Inc., online from Tong, von Schirnding, and Prapamontol, database, at ; mercury use from Roger Moody, Five in Beijing Has Excessive Lead in Blood,” “The Lure of Gold—How Golden is the Times of India, 16 October 2001; Reinhard Future?” Panos Media Briefing No. 19 (London: Kaiser et al., “Blood Lead Levels of Primary Panos Institute, May 1996), and from Eric Tay- School Children in Dhaka, Bangladesh,” Envi- lor, Mercury, Mining and Mayhem: Slow Death ronmental Health Perspectives, June 2001, pp. in the Amazon, Report for the People’s Gold 563–66. Summit (Berkeley, CA: Project Underground, May 1999); Ed Susman, “The Price of Gold: 39. World Health Organization (WHO) quote Indians at Risk in French Guiana,” Environmen- from Hilton, op. cit. note 26, p. 49; Tong, von tal Health Perspectives, May 2001, p. A225; D. Schirnding, and Prapamontol, op. cit. note 24, Cleary and I. Thornton, “The Environmental p. 1073. Impact of Gold Mining in the Brazilian Ama- zon,” in R. E. Hester and R. M. Harrison, eds., 40. UNEP Governing Council, Mercury Assess- Mining and its Environmental Impact (Cam- ment (Nairobi: 9 February 2001); H. K. T. bridge, U.K.: Royal Society of Chemistry, 1994), Wong, A. Gauthier, and J. O. Nriagu, “Disper- p. 19; EPA, “Toxic Releases Inventory 1999: sion and Toxicity of Metals from Abandoned Executive Summary,” April 2001, at . Canada,” The Science of the Total Environment, vol. 228 (1999), p. 44.

221 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 4

41. Krimsky quoted in Geiser, op. cit. note 6, ic Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection, p. 187. Protecting the Oceans from Land-based Activities, GESAMP Report No. 71 (Nairobi: 15 January 42. Not chemically bonded from Thornton, op. 2001), p. 23. cit. note 16, p. 313; particular conditions from Amdur, Doull, and Klaassen, op. cit. note 20, p. 47. International Conferences on the Protec- 889; health problems in animal studies from tion of the North Sea, The North Sea: An Inte- Schettler et al., op. cit. note 24, pp. 181–82, grated Ecosystem Approach for Sustainable 335. Development (Oslo: Ministry of the Environ- ment, April 1999), p. 11; World Wide Fund for 43. Stephen D. Pearson and Lawrence A. Tris- Nature (WWF), “WWF Welcomes the Adoption sel, “Leaching of Diethylhexyl Phthalate from of a Convention to Eliminate Dangerous Chem- Polyvinyl Chloride Containers by Selected icals from the Seas,” news release (Gland, Drugs and Formulation Components,” Ameri- Switzerland: 5 October 2001). can Journal of Hospital Pharmacology, July 1993, pp. 1405–09; Children’s Hospital quote 48. Terry Collins, Department of Chemistry, from Bette Hileman, “Alert on Phthalates,” Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, dis- C&EN, 7 August 2000, p. 54; Toxicology Panel cussion with author, 20 June 2001; Collins, op. quote cited in Janet Raloff, “New Concerns cit. note 6; The Royal Society, Endocrine Dis- About Phthalates,” Science News, 2 September rupting Chemicals (London: June 2000), p. 5. 2000, p 154. 49. Quote from Jocelyn Kaiser, “Panel Cau- 44. National Center for Environmental Health, tiously Conﬁrms Low-Dose Effects,” Science, 27 National Report on Human Exposure to Envi- October 2000, p. 695; Royal Society, op. cit. ronmental Chemicals (Atlanta, GA: Centers for note 48, pp. 1–4. Disease Control and Prevention, March 2001); Benjamin C. Blount et al., “Levels of Seven Uri- 50. Sohail Khattak et al., “Pregnancy Outcome nary Phthalates Metabolites in a Human Refer- Following Gestational Exposure to Organic Sol- ence Population,” Environmental Health vents: A Prospective Controlled Study,” Journal Perspectives, October 2000, pp. 979–82; J. of the American Medical Association, 24–31 Raloff, “Girls May Face Risks from Phthalates,” March 1999, pp. 1106–09; Cheryl Siegel Scott Science News, 9 September 2000, p. 165; Envi- and V. James Cogliano, “Trichloroethylene ronmental Working Group, Beauty Secrets: Does Health Risks: State of the Science,” Environ- a Common Chemical in Nail Polish Pose Risks to mental Health Perspectives, Supplement 2, May Human Health? (Washington, DC: November 2000, pp. 159–60; OSPAR Convention for the 2000). Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic, OSPAR Strategy with 45. Peter Matthiessen and Peter E. Gibbs, Regard to Hazardous Substances (Sintra, Portu- “Critical Appraisal of the Evidence for gal: 22–23 July 1998). Tributyltin-Mediated Endocrine Disruption in Mollusks,” Environmental Toxicology and Chem- 51. Warren P. Porter, James W. Jaeger, and Ian istry, vol. 17, no. 1 (1998), pp. 37–43; Terry L. H. Carlson, “Endocrine, Immune, and Behav- Wade, Bernardo Garcia-Romero, and James M. ioral Effects of Aldicarb (Carbamate), Atrazine Brooks, “Tributyltin Contamination in Bivalves (Triazine) and Nitrate (Fertilizer) Mixtures at from United States Coastal Estuaries,” Environ- Groundwater Concentrations,” Toxiciology and mental Science & Technology, vol. 22, no. 12 Industrial Health, vol. 15, nos. 1–2 (1999), pp. (1988), pp. 1488–93. 133–50.

46. Wade, Garcia-Romero, and Brooks, op. cit. 52. Thornton, op. cit. note 16, pp. 7–19; Geis- note 45; Joint Group of Experts on the Scientif- er, op. cit. note 6, pp. 195–212.

222 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 4

53. “World Bank and UNEP Sign Agreement 1990–2000 (Austin, TX: May 2001). on Persistent Organic Pollutants,” news release (Washington, DC: UNEP, 18 May 2001). 63. National Resources Council of Maine and Mercury Policy Project (MPP), “India Rejects 54. UNEP, op. cit. note 1; Buccini, op. cit. note 2. U.S. Waste Mercury Shipment; Mercury To Be Turned Back to U.S. Port,” news release 55. UNEP, op. cit. note 1; Buccini, op. cit. note 2. (Burlington, VT: MPP, 25 January 2001); Port Said from Neil Tangri, Essential Action, Wash- 56. Barbara Dinham, PIC—A Tool for Change ington, DC, discussion with author, 20 June and a Partner for POPs? NGO Briefing on the 2001. Rotterdam Convention on Prior Informed Con- sent for Participants at the Signing of the POPs 64. Steve Gorman and Clif Curtis, “African Treaty (London: Pesticide Action Network–UK, Stockpile Program (Obsolete Pesticides),” pre- 14 May 2001); Clifton Curtis and Cynthia sentation at POPs Day meeting, World Bank, Palmer Olsen, Targeting Toxic Chemicals on the Washington, DC, 21 June 2001; “Chemical Way to the Johannesburg Summit (Washington, Time Bomb in the CIS,” Pesticides News, Sep- DC: WWF, September 2001). tember 1999, p. 8; Alemayehu Wodageneh, “Trouble in Store,” Our Planet, vol. 8, no. 6 57. Dinham, op. cit. note 56; Curtis and Olsen, (1998), pp. 12–14; Mark Davis, “Picking Up op. cit. note 56. the Poison Bill,” Pesticides News, June 2001, pp. 3–5. 58. Article 14 of the Rotterdam Convention on the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Cer- 65. Darryl Luscombe, Toxics Campaign, tain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in Greenpeace International, discussion with International Trade (September 1998); Dinham, author, 28 June 2001. op. cit. note 56; EEA and UNEP, op. cit. note 18, p. 18. 66. Michael Gregory, Mariann Lloyd-Smith, and Carl Smith, “UNEP Global POPs Treaty 59. Jonathan Krueger, “What’s to Become of (INC5/Johannesburg, December 2000): POPs Trade in Hazardous Wastes? The Basel Conven- and Right to Know,” IPEN Briefing Paper tion One Decade Later,” Environment, Novem- (Washington, DC: International POPs Elimina- ber 1999, p. 13; special responsibility from Jim tion Network, 2000). Puckett, Basel Action Network, Seattle, WA, e-mail to author, 16 October 2001. 67. U.N. Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), “Aarhus Convention Starts Count- 60. Basel Action Network, “China Ratifies down to Entry into Force,” press release (Gene- Global Accord to End Waste Dumping,” news va: 9 August 2001); Kofi Annan, “Foreword,” in release (New York: 15 May 2001); Pat Phibbs, UNECE, The Aarhus Convention: An Imple- “Ratification of Basel Accord Without Ban On mentation Guide (Geneva: 2000), p. v. Exports Opposed by Environment Coalition,” International Environment Reporter, 15 August 68. EPA, “Chapter 1: Toxics Release Inventory 2001, p. 687. Reporting and the 1997 Public Data Release,” Toxics Release Inventory (Washington, DC: 61. Krueger, op. cit. note 59, pp. 15, 18, 19; 1997); EPA, “Toxics Release Inventory,” op. cit. Puckett, op. cit. note 59. note 34; U.S. General Accounting Office, Toxic Chemicals: EPA’s Toxic Release Inventory Is Use- 62. Texas Center for Policy Studies, The Gener- ful but Can Be Improved (Washington, DC: June ation and Management of Hazardous Wastes 1991); EPA, “Administration Promotes Rule on and Transboundary Hazardous Waste Shipments Lead Emissions Information,” press release between Mexico, Canada and the United States, (Washington, DC: 17 April 2001).

223 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 4

69. Countries cited in EPA, “Chapter 1,” op. ny, 1995), pp. 126–27. cit. note 68, in UNEP Chemicals, National Inventories of Persistent Organic Pollutants: 76. World Bank, “Greening Industry: Commu- Selected Examples as Possible Models, Preliminary nities, Stock Markets, and Governments Join Report (Geneva: July 1999), and in OECD, op. Hands to Cut Industrial Pollution,” press release cit. note 7, pp. 64–69; UNEP, National PRTR (Washington, DC: 22 November 1999). Activities: Challenges and Experiences (Nairobi: 1 March 1996); “The Citizens Right to Know” 77. Geiser, op. cit. note 6, pp. 193–94; New (editorial), New York Times, 1 June 1999. Jersey official from U.S. General Accounting Office, Environmental Protection: EPA Should 70. Pat Costner, scientist, Greenpeace Interna- Strengthen Its Efforts to Measure and Encourage tional, discussion with author, 13 April 2000. Pollution Prevention (Washington, DC: Febru- For list of participating organizations, see ary 2001), p. 21. . 78. Miguel Altieri, “Escaping the Treadmill,” 71. “Denmark to Stop Funding Toxic Waste Ceres, July/August 1995; definitions from FAO, Project,” Xinhua News Service, 22 August 2001; “Organic Agriculture: Item 8 of the Provisional U.N. Foundation, “GEF Approves Project to Agenda,” Committee on Agriculture, Fifteenth Safely Dispose of PCBs,” news release (Wash- Session, Rome, 25–29 January 1999, 3 Febru- ington, DC: 11 May 2001). ary 2000; Carol Kaesuk Yoon, “Simple Method Found to Increase Crop Yields Vastly,” New 72. Lotta Fredholm, “Sweden To Get Tough York Times, 22 August 2000; Rick Welsh, The on Lingering Compounds,” Science, 1 Decem- Economics of Organic Grain and Soybean Pro- ber 2000, p. 1666. duction in the Midwestern United States, Policy Studies Report No. 13 (Greenbelt, MD: Henry 73. “WWF Calls on the IMO Members to A. Wallace Institute of Alternative Agriculture, Adhere to Ban on a Highly Toxic Chemical,” May 1999). press release (Gland, Switzerland: WWF, 1 October 2001); “Toxic Toys,” Environmental 79. Brian Halweil, “Organic Gold Rush,”World Health Perspectives, June 1999, p. A295; Joe Watch, May/June 2001, p. 22; 25 percent from Kirwin, “European Commission Seeks Ban on Rob Bryant, Agranova, e-mail to Liza Rosen, PVC Toys Containing Phthalates,” Internation- Worldwatch Institute, 18 July 2001. al Environment Reporter, 24 November 1999, pp. 937–38. 80. Stockholm Convention, op. cit. note 2; World Wildlife Fund, Resolving the DDT Dilem- 74. Figure 4–4 from Kees Baas, Central Bureau ma: Protecting Human Health and Biodiversity of Statistics, The Hague, e-mail to David Rood- (Washington, DC: June 1998); WHO, WHO man, Worldwatch Institute, 24 September 1997; Expert Committee on Malaria, Twentieth Report, Hötte, van der Vlies, and Hafkamp, op. cit. note Technical Report Series No. 892 (Geneva: 19. 2000), p. 3.

75. Olle Pettersson, “Pesticide Use in Swedish 81. Geoffrey A. T. Target and Brian M. Green- Agriculture: The Case of a 75% Reduction,” in wood, “Impregnated Bednets,” World Health, David Pimentel, ed., Techniques for Reducing May–June 1998, pp. 10–11; “Malaria: Waiver by Pesticide Use: Economic and Environmental Ben- Uganda of Taxes and Tariffs on Insecticide- eﬁts (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1997), pp. treated Nets,” Weekly Epidemiological Record, 21 79–102; OECD and UNEP, op. cit. note 27, July 2000, pp. 233–34. pp. 7–10; Odil Tunali, “Lead in Gasoline Slow- ly Phased Out,” in Lester R. Brown et al., Vital 82. Henk Bouwman, “Malaria Control and the Signs 1995 (New York: W.W. Norton & Compa- Paradox of DDT,” Africa: Environment and

224 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTERS 4 AND 5

Wildlife, May 2000, p. 56; Roger Thurow, “In Chapter 5. Redirecting International Malaria War, South Africa Turns to Pesticide Tourism Long Banned in the West,” Wall Street Journal, 26 July 2001. 1. Jayakumar Chelaton, Thanal Conservation Action and Information Network, Kerala, India, 83. Thornton, op. cit. note 16, pp. 383–86; 87 e-mail to author, 9 July 2001. percent from French, op. cit. note 14, p. 90. 2. Ibid. 84. Massachusetts Toxics Use Reduction Insti- tute, “The Cost of Changing”: Total Cost Assess- 3. Susan C. Stonich, “Political Ecology of ment of Solvent Alternatives, Methods/Policy Tourism,” Annals of Tourism Research, vol. 25, Report No. 6 (Lowell, MA: 1994); A. H. Ver- no. 1 (1998), p. 25. schoor and L. Reijnders, “Toxics Reduction in Ten Large Companies, Why and How,” Journal 4. World Tourism Organization (WTO), of Cleaner Production, vol. 8, no. 1 (2000), pp. “Tourism Knocked Down, But Not Out,” press 69–78; Thornton, op. cit. note 16, pp. 383–86; release (Madrid: 17 September 2001). Geiser, op. cit. note 6, p. 255, 351–54. 5. Martha Honey, Who Owns Paradise? Eco- 85. Geiser, op. cit. note 6, pp. 283–304; tourism and Sustainable Development (Washing- National Research Council, Biobased Industrial ton, DC: Island Press, 1998). Products: Priorities for Research and Commer- cialization (Washington, DC: National Acade- 6. WTO, “Tourism is One of the Environ- my of Sciences, 2000); “EarthShell: Greening ment’s Best Friends. Secretary-General Address- the Drive-Thru,” The Carbohydrate Economy, es Special Session of United Nations,” press spring 2001, p. 11. release (Madrid: 24 June 1997).

86. Gruber cited in Peter Fairley, “Bioprocess- 7. International tourist arrivals refers to the ing Comes Alive,” Chemical Week, 14 March number of nonresident arrivals who stay at least 2001, pp. 23–25. one night, not to the number of distinct persons. Deﬁnitions and 2020 from WTO, Tourism Mar- 87. Lena Q. Ma et al., “A Fern That Hyperac- ket Trends: World Overview and Tourism Topics cumulates Arsenic,” Nature, 1 February 2001, (Madrid: May 2001), pp. 14, 47; Figure 5–1 p. 579; 1 percent from Mike Ferullo, “U.S. from Rosa Songel, Statistics and Economic Mea- Study Finds Fern May Remediate Arsenic Cont- surement of Tourism, WTO, e-mail to author, amination in Soil, Water,” International Envi- 17 April 2001; 4–10 times higher estimate from ronment Reporter, 23 May 2001, p. 436; detox Geoffrey Wall, Associate Dean, Graduate Studies center parallel from Andrew C. Revkin, “Plants and Research, Faculty of Environmental Studies, as Pollution Sponges,” New York Times, 6 March University of Waterloo, ON, Canada, e-mail to 2001. author, 27 September 2001.

88. Revkin, op. cit. note 87. 8. Auliana Poon, “The ‘New Tourism’ Revo- lution,” Tourism Management, vol. 15, no. 2 89. Geiser, op. cit. note 6, p. 237. (1994), pp. 91–92; technologies from World Trade Organization, Council for Trade in Ser- 90. “Living Free of Pollution Called a Basic vices, “Tourism Services,” background note Human Right,” Environmental News Service, 30 (Geneva: 23 September 1998), pp. 5–6; Travel April 2001. Industry Association of America, “TIA Releases Two Studies on E-Travel Consumers,” press release (Washington, DC: 27 February 2001).

225 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 5

9. Sources of tourists from WTO, op. cit. note 15. Airlines from Miguel Alejandro Figueras, 7, p. 33; share of passports derived from U.S. Advisor to the Minister of Tourism, Cuba, Department of State, discussion with Uta “International Tourism in the Cuban Econo- Saoshiro, Worldwatch Institute, 9 October my,” presentation at WTO Symposium on 2001, and from Population Reference Bureau, Tourism Services, Geneva, 22–23 February electronic database, at , viewed 9 October 2001; 3.5 and 7 percent from World Trade Organiza- 16. World Trade Organization, op. cit. note 8, tion, op. cit. note 8, p. 5. p. 7; WWF, op. cit. note 13.

10. Motivations from WTO, op. cit. note 7, p. 17. One in five from Honey, op. cit. note 5, p. 23; Poon, op. cit. note 8; U.S. study from 8; Asian destinations and growth rates from Honey, op. cit. note 5, p. 9. WTO, op. cit. note 7, pp. 18–22, 46; Cuba from Figueras, op. cit. note 15, p. 2. 11. Regional breakdown and Figure 5–2 from WTO, op. cit. note 7, p. 35, and from Songel, 18. United Nations Conference on Trade and op. cit. note 7; 2020 from WTO, Tourism 2020 Development (UNCTAD), “Tourism and Vision: A New Forecast (Madrid: 1997); China Development in the Least Developed Coun- from WTO, “East Asia/Pacific Arrivals Set to tries,” background paper for the Third U.N. Double in Next Ten Years,” press release Conference on the Least Developed Countries, (Madrid: 9 January 1999). Las Palmas, Canary Islands, 26–29 March 2001, p. 15. 12. Receipts estimates exclude international transport fares and were deflated using U.S. 19. “World Bank Revisits Role of Tourism in Implicit GNP Price Deflator, obtained from Vir- Development,” World Bank News, 18 June ginia Mannering, U.S. Commerce Department, 1998; $500 million from Maurice Desthuis- Bureau of Economic Analysis, 27 February Francis, “Tourists & Cities: Friend or Foe?” 2001; data and Table 5–1 from WTO, op. cit. Impact (International Finance Corporation note 7, pp. 15, 17, 34, 42. newsletter), spring-summer 2000, p. 18; Inter- national Monetary Fund from Raymond de 13. Rapid rise from World Wide Fund for Chavez, “Globalization and Tourism: Deadly Nature (WWF), Preliminary Assessment of the Mix for Indigenous Peoples,” Third World Environmental & Social Effects of Trade in Resurgence, March 1999. Tourism (Gland, Switzerland: May 2001), p. 22; 8 percent and 40 percent from Henryk Hand- 20. Deloitte & Touche, International Institute szuh, “Overview of International Trade in for Environment and Development (IIED), and Tourism Services, Including Current Statistics Overseas Development Institute (ODI), Sus- and Trends,” presentation at WTO Symposium tainable Tourism and Poverty Elimination Study, on Tourism Services, Geneva, 22–23 February a report to the U.K. Department for Interna- 2001; top five from WTO, op. cit. note 7, p. 41. tional Development (UKDFID) (London: April 1999), pp. 9–10; UNCTAD, op. cit. note 18, p. 14. Methodology from World Travel & 4; national economy estimates derived from Tourism Council (WTTC), World Travel & World Bank, World Development Indicators, elec- Tourism Council Year 2001 Tourism Satellite tronic database, accessed 6 August 2001, and Accounting Research: Documentation (London: from WTO, op. cit. note 7, pp. 91–96. June 2001), p. 5; 2000 estimates from idem, “Tourism Satellite Accounting Confirms Travel 21. Surplus from World Trade Organization, and Tourism as World’s Foremost Economic op. cit. note 8, p. 3; 1999 estimates from Hand- Activity,” press release (London: 11 May 2000). szuh, op. cit. note 13.

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22. Obstacles to development from UNCTAD, 27. Estimate of 90 percent and inﬂation from op. cit. note 18, pp. 9–13; Brazil from “Wish Cater, op. cit. note 26; 65 percent from Polly Your Dollars Were Here,” The Economist, 16 Pattullo, Last Resorts: The Cost of Tourism in the December 2000, p. 66. Caribbean (London: Cassell, 1996), pp. 121–23. 23. WTO estimate cited in David Diaz Bena- vides, UNCTAD, “The Sustainability of Inter- 28. David L Edgell, Sr., “A Barrier-Free Future national Tourism in Developing Countries,” for Tourism?” Tourism Management, vol. 16, presentation at the Seminar on Tourism Policy no. 2 (1995), pp. 107–10; de Chavez, op. cit. and Economic Growth, Berlin, 6–7 March note 19; WWF, op. cit. note 13, pp. 10–11; 112 2001, pp. 8–9. countries from World Trade Organization, op. cit. note 8, p. 9; TRIMS from Anita Pleumarom, 24. Estimates of 50–70 percent from World “Tourism, Globalization and Sustainable Devel- Trade Organization, op. cit. note 8, p. 4; linkage opment,” Third World Resurgence, March 1999. problems from Matthew J. Walpole and Harold J. Goodwin, “Local Economic Impacts of Drag- 29. WTTC, Travel & Tourism’s Economic on Tourism in Indonesia,” Annals of Tourism Impact (London: March 1999); women from Research, vol. 27, no. 3 (2000), p. 572. Carmen Michard et al., “Women’s Employment in Tourism World-Wide: Data and Statistics,” in 25. Estimate of 90 percent from U.N. Environ- UNED–UK, Gender & Tourism: Women’s ment and Development–UK (UNED–UK), Sus- Employment and Participation in Tourism, report tainable Tourism and Poverty Elimination, prepared for the Seventh Session of the UNCSD, report on a workshop held 9 February 1999 in April 1999, pp. 17–34; informal work from Ash- preparation for the Seventh Meeting of the U.N. ley, Boyd, and Goodwin, op. cit. note 26. Commission on Sustainable Development (UNCSD), New York, April 1999, p. 8; Thai- 30. Service jobs from Lee Pera and Deborah land from Michael Doyle, “New Law Retains McLaren, Rethinking Tourism project, “Global- US Advantage for Now,” Bangkok Post, 8 Janu- ization, Tourism & Indigenous Peoples: What ary 2000, and from Chatrudee Theparat, “Peti- You Should Know About the World’s Largest tion Will Demand Amendment of Laws,” ‘Industry,’” at , November from International Labour Organisation (ILO), 1999; ILO, op. cit. note 25, p. 121; Maggie Human Resources Development, Employment Black, In the Twilight Zone: Child Workers in the and Globalization in the Hotel, Catering and Hotel, Tourism and Catering Industry (Geneva: Tourism Sector, report for discussion at the Tri- ILO, 1995); 2 million from ILO, “Seeking partite Meeting on Human Resources Develop- Socially Responsible Tourism,” World of Work, ment, Employment and Globalization in the June 2001. Hotel, Catering and Tourism Sector, Geneva, 2001, pp. 43–44. 31. Dependence from Patricia P. A. A. H. Kan- delaars, A Dynamic Simulation Model of Tourism 26. Foreign operators from WWF, op. cit. note and Environment in the Yucatan Peninsula 13, p. 15; 80 percent from Erlet Cater, “Eco- (Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for tourism in the Third World: Problems for Sus- Applied Systems Analysis, April 1997), p. 2; tainable Tourism Development,” Tourism Douglas W. Payne, “Letter from Grenada,” The Management, April 1993, p. 86; packages from Nation, 22 March 1999, pp. 22–24; slow season Caroline Ashley, Charlotte Boyd, and Harold from ILO, “The Social Impact on the Hotel and Goodwin, “Pro-Poor Tourism: Putting Poverty Tourism Sector of Events Subsequent to 11 Sep- at the Heart of the Tourism Agenda,” Natural tember 2001,” brieﬁng paper for discussion at Resource Perspectives (London: ODI, March the Informal Meeting on the Hotel and Tourism 2000). Sector: Social Impacts of Events Subsequent to

227 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 5

11 September 2001, Geneva, 25–26 October 36. United Nations Environment Programme 2001. (UNEP), Tourism and Environmental Protec- tion, Addendum C, Contribution of UNEP to 32. Respect for minorities from Ashley, Boyd, the Secretary-General’s Report on Industry and and Goodwin, op. cit. note 26; Deborah Ramer Sustainable Tourism for the Seventh Session of McLaren, “The History of Indigenous Peoples the UNCSD, 1999; capacity from Pleumarom, and Tourism,” Cultural Survival Quarterly, op. cit. note 28. summer 1999, p. 27; Mike Robinson, “Is Cul- tural Tourism on the Right Track?” UNESCO 37. Estimate of 90 percent from International Courier, July–August 1999, p. 22–23; Bali from Federation Free Trade Union & Trade Union Tony Wheeler, “Philosophy of a Guidebook Advisory Committee, Organisation for Econom- Guru,” UNESCO Courier, July–August 1999, ic Co-operation and Development, Tourism and p. 55; Rachel Proctor, “Tourism Opens New Sustainable Development: Workers and Trade Doors, Creates New Challenges, for Traditional Unions in the Web of Tourism, Background Paper Healers in Peru,” Cultural Survival Quarterly, No. 2, prepared for the Seventh Session of the winter 2001, pp. 14–16; Myra Shackley, “The UNCSD, New York, 19–30 April 1999, p. 9; Himalayas: Masked Dances and Mixed Bless- shares of transport are 1998 estimates, per ings,” UNESCO Courier, July–August 1999, WTO, op. cit. note 7, pp. 24–25; 90 percent air p. 28. travel estimate from World Trade Organization, op. cit. note 8, p. 5. 33. De Chavez, op. cit. note 19; Peru from Ken- neth McCormick, “Can Ecotourism Save the 38. Fastest growing from “Global Warming Rainforests?” information sheet (San Francisco: Could Hurt Tourism,” Associated Press, 30 Rainforest Action Network, 1994); contact August 1999; Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- effects from Sven Wunder, Promoting Forest Con- mate Change (IPCC), Special Report: Aviation servation Through Ecotourism Income? Occasional and the Global Atmosphere (Geneva: 1999); 57 Paper No. 21 (Jakarta: Center for International percent and higher share a 1996 estimate cited Forestry Research, March 1999), pp. 13–14; in Stefan Gössling, “Tourism—Sustainable globalization from Lesley France, ed., The Earth- Development Option?” Environmental Conser- scan Reader in Sustainable Tourism (London: vation, vol. 27, no. 3 (2000), pp. 223–24. Earthscan Publications, Ltd., 1997), p. 8. 39. Room estimates from WTO, op. cit. note 7, 34. John S. Akama, “Marginalization of the p. 29; larger hotels from idem, Tourism High- Maasai in Kenya,” Annals of Tourism Research, lights 1999 (Madrid: rev. 19 May 1999), p. 10; vol. 26, no. 3 (1996), pp. 716–18; Isaac Sindi- Singy Hanyona, “Victoria Falls Marred by Pol- ga, Tourism and African Development: Change lution,” Environment News Service, 28 Septem- and Challenge of Tourism in Kenya (Aldershot, ber 2000. Hamps, U.K., and Leiden, Netherlands: Ashgate Publishing Led and African Studies Centre, 40. Caribbean from Pattullo, op. cit. note 27, 1999), pp. 126–45; Tourism Concern, “Burma,” pp. 105–09; “Mexico: Resort’s Boom Raises at , viewed 20 September 2001. 1999; two ecosystems from Carlos Castilho and Roberto Herrscher, Ecotourism: Paradise 35. Megan Epler Wood, International Eco- Gained, or Paradise Lost? Panos Media Brieﬁng tourism Society, Burlington, VT, e-mail to No. 14 (London: Panos Institute, January author, 3 October 2001; Stephen G. Snow, 1995). “The Kuna General Congress and the Statute on Tourism,” Cultural Survival Quarterly, winter 41. Expensive resource use from Mitzi Perdue, 2001, pp. 17–18. “Hotels Are Going Green,” at , viewed 9 December 1998;

228 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 5

Elisabeth Eaves, “Feature—Dead Sea Tourism International Trends in Park Tourism and Eco- Threatens Fragile Environment,” Reuters, 2 tourism (Waterloo, ON, Canada: University of September 1998; Caroline Hawley, “Dead Sea Waterloo, Department of Recreation and ‘to Disappear by 2050,’” BBC News Online, 3 Leisure Studies, 31 August 1999), pp. 28–32; August 2001. “Cambodia’s Tourist Boom Seen Threatening Angkor,” Reuters, 21 June 2000; trash from 42. Grenada from Payne, op. cit. note 31, pp. “Tourists Soil Malaysia Rain Forest,” Associated 22–24; Malaysia from Annette Groth, “Sustain- Press, 23 March 1999. able Tourism and the Environment,” Connect (UNESCO International Science, Technology 48. Jean M. Blane and Reiner Jaakson, “The & Environmental Education Newsletter), vol. Impact of Ecotourism Boats on the St Lawrence 25, no. 1 (2000), p. 1; Philippines from Maurice Beluga Whales,” Environmental Conservation, Malanes, “Tourism Killing World’s Eighth Won- autumn 1994, pp. 267–69; safari from Dilys der,” at Third World Network, , viewed 18 Septem- Clayton, Take Only Photographs, Leave Only ber 2001. Footprints: The Environmental Impacts of Wildlife Tourism (London: IIED, October 43. UNEP, op. cit. note 36, p. 2; Frederick 1997), p. 44; ivory from Danna Harman, “For- Noronha, “Goa’s Tourist Boom Backﬁres With mer Stray Dogs Join Fight to Save Africa’s Ele- Ugly Smell,” Environment News Service, 27 phants,” Christian Science Monitor, 2 July 2001. December 2000. 49. B. R. Tershy et al., “A Survey of Eco- 44. Obstacles to treatment and Caribbean from tourism on Islands in Northwestern México,” Pattullo, op. cit. note 27, pp. 112–13; Thailand Environmental Conservation, vol. 26, no. 3 from James E. N. Sweeting, Aaron G. Bruner, (1999), pp. 212–17; 66 percent from Samantha and Amy B. Rosenfeld, The Green Host Effect, CI Newport, “Oil Spill Highlights Hazards of Isles’ Policy Papers (Washington, DC: Conservation Growth,” Washington Post, 27 January 2001; International, 1999), p. 10. doubling from Larry Rohter, “Isles Rich in Species Are Origin of Much Tension,” New York 45. Doubling from WTO, op. cit. note 7, p. 59; Times, 27 January 2001. Kira Schmidt, Cruising for Trouble: Stemming the Tide of Cruise Ship Pollution (San Francisco: 50. UNEP, op. cit. note 36, p. 3; Sanjay Nepal, Bluewater Network, March 2000); 90,000 tons “Tourism in Protected Areas: The Nepalese from Honey, op. cit. note 5, p. 40; “Royal Himalaya,” Annals of Tourism Research, vol. 27, Caribbean Sentenced for Ocean Dumping,” no. 3 (2000), pp. 661–81; fuelwood loss from Reuters, 4 November 1999. Castilho and Herrscher, op. cit. note 40; Nicodemus Odhiambo, “Millennium Celebrants 46. New vessels from WTO, op. cit. note 7, p. Swarm to Mt. Kilimanjaro,” Environment News 59; ﬂoating cities from “Cruise Ship Dumping Service, 20 September 1999. Sparks Interest,” Environmental News Network, 3 December 1999; passengers and crew from 51. Dive numbers from International Coral Douglas Frantz, “Gaps in Sea Laws Shield Pol- Reef Initiative and UNEP, “Tourism and Coral lution by Cruise Lines,” New York Times, 3 Jan- Reefs,” information sheet (Nairobi: UNEP, uary 1999; S. H. Smith, “Cruise Ships: A undated); Julie P. Hawkins and Callum M. Serious Threat to Coral Reefs and Associated Roberts, “The Growth of Coastal Tourism in Organisms,” Ocean and Shoreline Management, the Red Sea: Present and Future Effects on vol. 11 (1998), pp. 231–48; Cayman Islands Coral Reefs,” Ambio, December 1994, p. 506; from Pattullo, op. cit. note 27, p. 110. Sakanan Plathong, Graeme J. Inglis, and Michael E. Huber, “Effects of Self-Guided Snor- 47. Ill-equipped sites from Paul F. J. Eagles, keling Trails on Corals in a Tropical Marine

229 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 5

Park,” Conservation Biology, December 2000, 57. Increases from Gerard S. Dharmaratne et pp. 1821–30; Bonaire from Julie P. Hawkins et al., “Tourism Potentials for Financing Protected al., “Effects of Recreational Scuba Diving on Areas,” Annals of Tourism Research, vol. 27, no. Caribbean Coral and Fish Communities,” Con- 3 (2000), pp. 590–610; South Africa from servation Biology, August 1999, pp. 888–97; Eagles, op. cit. note 47, pp. 18–19; Central looting from Pattullo, op. cit. note 27, p. 110. America from Elizabeth Boo, Ecotourism: The Potentials and Pitfalls (Washington DC: World 52. David Viner and Maureen Agnew, “Climate Wildlife Fund, 1990), p. 47. Change and Its Impacts on Tourism,” report prepared for WWF–UK (Norwich, U.K.: Uni- 58. Financing problems from Eagles, op. cit. versity of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit, note 47, p. 10–18, and from Dharmaratne et al., July 1999); James J. McCarthy et al., Climate op. cit. note 57, pp. 606–07. Box 5–1 based on Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulner- the following: Bonaire from John A. Dixon and ability, Contribution of Working Group II to Tom van’t Hof, “Conservation Pays Big Divi- the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC dends in Caribbean,” Forum for Applied (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, Research and Public Policy, spring 1997, p. 46; 2001), pp. 843–75; 85 percent derived from Costa Rica from McCormick, op. cit. note 33; World Bank, op. cit. note 20, and from WTO, Komodo and Galapagos from Matthew J. Wal- op. cit. note 7, p. 90; Black Forest and Adriatic pole, Harold J. Goodwin, and Kari G. R. Ward, from Kandelaars, op. cit. note 31, p. 2; develop- “Pricing Policy for Tourism in Protected Areas: ing world from Desthuis-Francis, op. cit. note Lessons from Komodo National Park, Indone- 19, p. 17; Shawn W. Crispin and G. Pierre Goad, sia,” Conservation Biology, February 2001, pp. “Bangkok Renaissance,” Far Eastern Economic 223, 219; corruption from Karen Archabald and Review, 30 September 1999, p. 62. Lisa Naughton-Treves, “Tourism Revenue-Shar- ing Around National Parks in Western Uganda: 53. International Ecotourism Society, “Eco- Early Efforts to Identify and Reward Local tourism Statistical Fact Sheet,” information Communities,” Environmental Conservation, sheet (Burlington, VT: 2000); United Nations vol. 28, no. 2 (2001), pp. 135–49; Mexico from Economic and Social Council, “Resolution Tershy et al., op. cit. note 49, pp. 212–17; U.S. 1998/40–Declaring the Year 2002 as the Inter- survey from Castilho and Herrscher, op. cit. national Year of Ecotourism,” agreed to at the note 40; gorillas from Ian Fisher, “Victims of 46th Plenary Meeting, New York, 30 July 1998. War: The Jungle Gorillas and Tourism,” New York Times, 31 March 1999; Central African 54. Honey, op. cit. note 5, p. 5; Cater, op. cit. Republic from David S. Wilkie and Julia F. Car- note 26, p. 88; Peru from Laurent Belsie, penter, “Can Nature Tourism Help Finance Pro- “Treading Lightly,” Christian Science Monitor, tected Areas in the Congo Basin?” Oryx, vol. 33, 1 February 2001. no. 4 (1999), pp. 332–38.

55. International Ecotourism Society cited in 59. “Freelance Conservationists,” The Econo- Mike Tidwell, “No Glaciers in Glacier National mist, 23 August 2001, p. 62; Costa Rica and Park?” Washington Post, 9 September 2001; 7 Belize from Boo, op. cit. note 57, p. xvii; Jeff percent from WTO, op. cit. note 7; 1992 study Langholz, “Economics, Objectives, and Success from Fern Fillion et al., cited in International of Private Nature Reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa Ecotourism Society, op. cit. note 53. and Latin America,” Conservation Biology, vol. 10, no. 1 (1996), pp. 271–80. 56. Pamela A. White, “North American Eco- tourists: Market Proﬁle and Trip Characteristics,” 60. Mark B. Orams, “Towards a More Desir- Journal of Travel Research, spring 1996; WTO, able Form of Ecotourism,” Tourism Manage- “WTO Picks Hot Tourism Trends for 21st Cen- ment, vol. 16, no. 1 (1995), p. 3; Marilyn Bauer, tury,” press release (Madrid: 4 June 1998). “Eco-resort Owner Fights to Save the Ti Ti

230 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 5

Monkey,” Environmental News Network, 21 July tiane Gagnon, “An Assessment of Social Impacts 2000. of National Parks on Communities in Quebec, Canada,” Environmental Conservation, vol. 26, 61. Pleumarom, op. cit. note 28; Ed Stoddard, no. 3 (1999), p. 201; Galapagos from Castilho “Interview—S. Africa Game Parks to Woo Pri- and Herrscher, op. cit. note 40. vate Sector,” Reuters, 25 November 1999; John Pomfret, “Privatizing China’s Parks,” Washing- 67. Partnerships from Sproule, op. cit. note 64, ton Post, 5 July 2001. pp. 233–50; 200 guides and 92 percent from Beth Trafk, RARE Center for Tropical Conser- 62. Cater, op. cit. note 26, pp. 86–88; Honey, vation, Arlington, VA, discussion with Uta op. cit. note 5, p. 25; Geoffrey Wall, “Is Eco- Saoshiro, Worldwatch Institute, 21 September tourism Sustainable?” Environmental Manage- 2001; The Conference Board, “Business Enter- ment, vol. 2, no. 4 (1997), pp. 9–12. prises for Sustainable Travel’s First BEST Prac- tices Highlights Tour Operator’s Model 63. David B. Weaver, “Magnitude of Eco- Philanthropic Program: Lindblad Guests Have tourism in Costa Rica and Kenya,” Annals of Contributed More than $500,000 to Galapagos Tourism Research, vol. 26, no. 4 (1999), pp. Conservation Fund,” press release (New York: 809–11; “Ecotourism: ‘Hordes Of Visitors’ Put 12 June 2000). Costa Rica At Risk,” UN Wire, 10 May 1999; Bas Amelung et al., “Tourism in Motion: Is the 68. Castilho and Herrscher, op. cit. note 40; Sky the Limit?” in Pim Martens and Jan Rot- 1980 numbers from Nepal, op. cit. note 50, p. mans, eds., Transitions in a Globalising World 669; 63,000 from WWF Nepal, “Conservation (Maastricht, Netherlands: International Centre and Sustainable Development through Tourism for Integrative Studies, forthcoming), p. 95; in Nepal,” Ecocircular (WWF Nepal Program 700,000 from Costa Rica Tourist Board, newsletter), March–April 2001, p. 8. “Resume 2000,” at , viewed 13 September 2001. 69. Honey, op. cit. note 5, p. 17; U.S. Agency for International Development, Win-Win 64. Keith W. Sproule, “Community-Based Eco- Approaches to Development and the Environment: tourism Development: Identifying Partners in Ecotourism and Biodiversity Conservation (Wash- the Process,” in The Ecotourism Equation: Mea- ington, DC: Center for Development Informa- suring the Impacts, Bulletin Series No. 99 (New tion and Evaluation, July 1996); Shekhar Singh Haven, CT: Yale University School of Forestry and Claudio Volonte, Biodiversity Program and Environmental Studies, 1996), pp. 233–50; Study (Washington, DC: Global Environment revenue sharing from Archabald and Naughton- Facility Monitoring and Evaluation Unit, 11 Treves, op. cit. note 58; Huaorani from Sylvie April 2001), pp. 2–3. Blangy, “Ecotourism Without Tears,” UNESCO Courier, July–August 1999, p. 32. 70. WTO, “International Year of Ecotourism (IYE) 2002,” concept paper (Madrid: undated); 65. Wunder, op. cit. note 33, pp. 17–19; Arch- Anita Pleumarom, “Do We Need the Interna- abald and Naughton-Treves, op. cit. note 58, tional Year of Ecotourism?” (Bangkok: Tourism pp. 144–45; quote from Mountain Agenda, Investigation & Monitoring Team, November “Mountains of the World: Tourism and Sustain- 2000). able Mountain Development, Part 1,” prepared for the Seventh Session of the UNCSD, New 71. Wall, op. cit. note 62, p. 12; Boo, op. cit. York, 19–30 April 1999; CAMPFIRE from note 57. Castilho and Herrscher, op. cit. note 40. 72. Deﬁnition from WTO, “Concepts & Deﬁn- 66. Resentment from Cater, op. cit. note 26, p. itions,” at ; “Malé Declaration

231 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 5 on Tourism & Sustainable Development ruary 1999). Table 5–2 based on the following: (1997),” at ; “Berlin Declaration: Biological Business,” information brochure (London: Diversity and Sustainable Tourism,” at undated); idem, information sheet (London: ; undated); Bogo, op. cit. note 76, pp. 46–47; “CSD-7 to Focus on Tourism, Oceans, and Paula Diperna, “Tourism is Only As Sustainable SIDS,” CSD Update, August 1998; WTO, As the Tourism Industry Allows,” Earth Times, “Tourism Sector Takes Steps to Ensure Future 5 April 1999; Rebecca Hawkins, “Environmen- Growth: Global Code of Ethics Adopted at tal Reviewing for the Hotel Sector: the Experi- WTO Summit,” press release (Santiago: 1 Octo- ence of Inter-Continental Hotels and Resorts,” ber 1999); WTTC, WTO, and Earth Council, Tourism Focus No. 5, UNEP Industry and Agenda 21 for the Travel & Tourism Industry Environment, April–June 1996. (London: 1995). 78. Recycling from Mary B. Uebersax, “Inde- 73. Deloitte & Touche, IIED, and ODI, op. cit. cent Proposal: Cruise Ship Pollution in the note 20; balance from France, op. cit. note 33, p. Caribbean,” August 1996, at , viewed 26 and Bill Carter, “Ecotourism in the 21st Centu- October 2001; newer vessels from “Cruise Line ry,” Tourism Management, April 1993, p. 127. Cleans Up Its Wake,” Environmental News Network, 6 August 2001, and from “Cruise 74. U.S. survey reported in International Eco- Companies Aim for Cleaner Waste,” Associated tourism Society, “U.S. Ecotourism Fact Sheet,” Press, 31 July 2000; International Council of information sheet (Burlington, VT: 1999); U.K. Cruise Lines, “ICCL Industry Standard E-01- survey from MORI, cited in Green Globe, 01: Cruise Industry Waste Management “Green Globe: Securing the Future for Travel Practices and Procedures,” adopted 11 June and Tourism,” information packet (London: 2001, at .

75. Honey, op. cit. note 5, p. 20; Wolf Michael 79. Guide programs from Thomas B. Lawrence Iwand, “The Ecological Programme of the and Deborah Wickins, “Managing Legitimacy in TUI,” brochure (Hannover, Germany: Touristic Ecotourism,” Tourism Management, vol. 18, no. Union International, undated). 5 (1997), p. 313; UNEP, “UNEP, WTO and Tour Operators Join Forces to Promote Sustain- 76. “Lessening the Environmental Impacts of able Tourism Development,” press release Leisure Facilities,” Green Hotelier, April 1999, (Nairobi: 19 April 1999); members from pp. 18–24; Green Hotels Association, “Ways , viewed Hotels are Helping to Save Our Planet,” 17 September 2001. , viewed 9 December 1998; water savings from Jennifer 80. Australia from R. C. Buckley and G. F. Bogo, “Breathing Easy in America’s First Envi- Araujo, “Environmental Management Perfor- ronmentally-Smart Hotel,” E Magazine, Janu- mance in Tourism Accommodation,” Annals of ary/February 2000, p. 47; value from Perdue, Tourism Research, vol. 24, no. 2 (1997), pp. op. cit. note 41. 465–70; UNEP, op. cit. note 36, pp. 5–6, 10; monitoring from Cater, op. cit. note 26, p. 90. 77. International Hotels Environment Initiative (IHEI), , viewed 10 October 81. UNEP, Environmental Codes of Conduct for 2001; 111 countries from United Nations, Tourism (Nairobi: 1995); International Associa- “Governments, Tour Industry Seek Plan at tion of Antarctic Tour Operators, at United Nations to Cut Environmental and , viewed 10 October 2001; Social Impacts,” press release (New York: Feb- “Antarctic Tourism Tests Fragile Ecosystem,”

232 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 5

Reuters, 23 February 1999. ity,” in Erlet Cater and Gwen Lowman, Eco- tourism: A Sustainable Option? (Chichester, 82. UNEP, Ecolabels in the Tourism Industry U.K.: J. Wiley & Sons, 1994), pp. 69–86; (Nairobi: October 1998); Tanja Mihali, “Eco- Honey, op. cit. note 5, p. 87; Alan Flook, “The logical Labelling in Tourism,” in Lino Briguglio Changing Structure of International Trade in et al., eds., Sustainable Tourism in Island & Tourism Services, The Tour Operators Perspec- Small States: Issues and Policies (London: Pinter, tive,” presentation at WTO Symposium on 1996), pp. 197–205; Ron Mader, “Eco-yard- Tourism Services, Geneva, 22–23 February sticks for Hotels—Whose to Use?” EcoAmericas, 2001, p. 7. December 1999, p. 8. Table 5–3 based on the following: Green Globe 21 from United 85. Honey, op. cit. note 5, p. 32; Pleumarom, Nations, op. cit. note 77, from Green Globe, op. op. cit. note 28; UNED–UK, op. cit. note 25, cit. note 74, and from Synergy, “Tourism Certi- p. 5. fication: An Analysis of Green Globe 21 and Other Tourism Certification Programs,” report 86. UNCTAD, op. cit. note 18, pp. 16–17; prepared for WWF (Gland, Switzerland: August Barbara Jones and Tanya Tear, “Australia’s 2000); Ecotel from , viewed National Ecotourism Strategy,” Tourism Focus 10 September 2001; Blue Flag from , and from Graham Ashworth, January–March 1995. “The Blue Flag Campaign,” Naturopa, no. 88, (1998), p. 21; Certification for Sustainable 87. Trish Nicholson, Culture, Tourism and Tourism from , Local Strategies Towards Development: Case viewed 10 October 2001, from Diane Jukofsky, Studies in the Philippines and Vietnam, ESCOR “Costa Rica Rates Hotels for Eco-Friendliness,” Research Report #R6578 (London: UKDFID, Environment News Service, 14 December 1999, 1997). and from Beatrice Blake, “Comparing the ICT’s Certification of Sustainable Tourism and The 88. Sproule, op. cit. note 64; Brian Wheeller, New Key to Costa Rica’s Sustainable Tourism “Tourism’s Troubled Times: Responsible Rating,” August 2001, at , viewed 7 Sep- note 33, pp. 63–64; Wunder, op. cit. note 33, tember 2001; Rainforest Alliance, “About pp. 11–17; Cater, op. cit. note 84; Deloitte & SmartVoyager,” at , viewed 21 Nepal, op. cit. note 68. August 2001; Jorge Peraza-Breedy, Sustainable Tourism Program, Rainforest Alliance, San José, 89. Licensing and training from Sproule, op. Costa Rica, e-mail to author, 21 August 2001; cit. note 64; Walpole and Goodwin, op. cit. Green Leaf Foundation, “Profile: Green Leaf note 24, p. 573; UNCTAD, op. cit. note 18; Program,” informational brochure (Bangkok: Honey, op. cit. note 5, p. 83; Deloitte & undated); number of hotels with Green Leaf Touche, IIED, and ODI, op. cit. note 20; Sus- from UNEP, Regional Office for Asia and the tainable Travel & Tourism, “Nepal Bans Child Pacific, “Thailand’s Green Tourism Initiative Labour in Tourism,” News, June 2001. Applauded,” press release (Bangkok: 2 October 2000). 90. Diverse needs from E. Cater and B. Goodall, “Must Tourism Destroy Its Resource 83. Synergy, op. cit. note 82; Anne Becher and Base?” in France, op. cit. note 33, p. 86; over- Beatrice Blake, “Reflections on ‘Green Rat- sight from Castilho and Herrscher, op. cit. note ings,’” La Planeta Platica, August 1998. 40; Julio Batle, “Rethinking Tourism in the Balearic Islands,” Annals of Tourism Research, 84. Erlet Cater, “Ecotourism in the Third vol. 27, no. 2 (2000), pp. 524–26; countries World—Problems and Prospects for Sustainabil- with laws from UNEP, op. cit. note 36, p. 7;

233 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTERS 5 AND 6

Nicole Winﬁeld, “Cuba Seeks Right Mix of Eco- of Tourism Research, vol. 27, no. 2 (2000), pp. tourism,” at , 20 November 2000. 468–89; Chelaton, op. cit. note 1.

91. Saren Starbridge and Peter Bramwell, 98. Wendy Patterson, “Mexican Government “Charging for Rhinos: Making Conservation Temporarily Revokes License Granted to Build Pay,” Living Planet, spring 2001, pp. 64–69; Along Coastal Area,” International Environ- Wouter Schalken, “Where are the Wild Ones? ment Reporter, 25 April 2001, pp. 322–23; 40 The Involvement of Indigenous Communities species from “Corporate Corner,” EarthNet in Tourism in Namibia,” Cultural Survival News, 1 July 1999; Tourism Concern, op. cit. Quarterly, summer 1999, pp. 40–42; Namibia note 34. Community Based Tourism Association, at , viewed 19 September 99. United Nations, “UN Talks With Tourism 2001. Industry Spur Plans to Cut Negative Impacts,” press release (New York: 3 May 1999); Tourism 92. John Roach, “Peru Puts Limits on Inca Concern, “Child Sex Tourism,” at , viewed 20 September 2001; , viewed 11 July WTTC from Cynthia Guttman, “Towards an 2001; Mridula Chettri, “High Altitude Dilem- Ethics of Tourism,” UNESCO Courier, ma,” Down to Earth, 30 September 2000, p. 30; July–August 1999, p. 56. Ecuador from Castilho and Herrscher, op. cit. note 40. 100. International Ecotourism Society, “‘Your Travel Choice Makes a Difference’ Campaign,” 93. Sweeting, Bruner, and Rosenfeld, op. cit. press release (Burlington, VT: 29 February note 44, pp. 64–69; France from UNEP, op. cit. 2000); Conservation International’s Ecotravel note 36, p. 4. Center, at .

94. “Spain’s Balearics Approve Tourist Eco- 101. International Ecotourism Society, “Cultur- tax,” Reuters, 12 April 2001; Chris Brown, al Impacts,” at , viewed 20 September Slowdown,” Reuters, 1 August 2001; Seychelles 2001. from UNEP, op. cit. note 36, p. 4, and from Seychelles New Adventures, “Passport, Visa, and Chapter 6. Rethinking Population, Customs,” at , Improving Lives viewed 10 October 2001; cruise tax and tax holidays from Cater, op. cit. note 84. 1. Robert Engelman, Plan and Conserve: A Source Book on Linking Population and Environ- 95. Ashley, Boyd, and Goodwin, op. cit. note mental Services in Communities (Washington, 26; Asian Development Bank, “Helping Cook DC: Population Action International (PAI), Islands Manage Waste Will Reduce Health 1998), pp. 64–66; nearly two out of every ﬁve Risks, Protect Environment,” press release women from Alan Guttmacher Institute, Shar- (Manila: 17 July 2001). ing Responsibility: Women, Society, and Abortion Worldwide (New York: 1999), p. 42. 96. WTO, “WTO and the Environment,” press release (Madrid: 27 April 1995); International 2. Population would have topped 8 billion Maritime Organization, at ; from Patrick Heuveline, “The Global Impact of concern from Pleumarom, op. cit. note 28. Mortality and Fertility Transitions, 1950– 2000,” Population and Development Review, 97. Maria Kousis, “Tourism and the Environ- December 1999, pp. 681–702; data on fertility ment: A Social Movements Perspective,” Annals and population change from United Nations,

234 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 6

World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision ment: The Concise Report (New York: 1997); (New York: 2001). National Intelligence Council, Growing Global Migration and Its Implications for the United 3. United Nations, op. cit. note 2. States (Washington, DC: 2001). Box 6–2 based on the following: Beth Gardiner, “Trucker 4. United Nations, Report of the International Found Guilty in the Suffocation Deaths of 58 Conference on Population and Development, Immigrants,” Associated Press, 5 April 2001; Cairo, 5–13 September 1994, Programme of “U.S. Promises Action after Mexican Migrants’ Action of the International Conference on Pop- Deaths,” The Arizona Republic, 24 May 2001; ulation and Development, Annex to the Report James Sterngold, “Devastating Picture of Immi- (New York: 18 October 1994). grants Dead in the Arizona Desert,” New York Times, 24 May 2001; Thomas Homer Dixon, 5. Perdita Huston, Families As We Are: Con- Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (Princeton, versations from Around the World (New York: NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999), p. 110; The Feminist Press at the University of New IOM, op. cit. this note; “Thousands of Afghan York, 2001), p. 334. Refugees Pour into Pakistan,” Environmental News Service, 29 September 2001; Roger 6. For the conference documents described Cohen, “Europe’s Love-Hate Affair with For- in Box 6–1, see and . 12. United Nations, op. cit. note 2.

7. John Cleland, “Equity, Security and Fertili- 13. Ibid.; estimate of developing-country con- ty: A Reaction to Thomas,” Population Studies, traceptive prevalence in the late 1960s from J. July 1993, p. 351. Khanna, P. F. A. Van Look and P. D. Grifﬁn, Reproductive Health: Key to a Brighter Future, 8. Figure 6–1 and historical estimates from World Health Organization Biennial Report Robert Engelman, PAI, based on various written 1990–1991 (Geneva: World Health Organiza- works by historians and demographers; for his- tion (WHO), 1992), pp. 5–6; modern contra- torical estimates, see also see U.S. Bureau of ceptive prevalence from Population Reference Census, “Historical Estimates of World Popula- Bureau, 2001 World Population Data Sheet, wall tion,” ; United Nations, op. cit. note 2; New York City population from U.S. Census Bureau 14. Estimate for unmet need from John A. Ross 2000 census, at , viewed 18 October Developing World and the Former USSR: An 2001. Updated Estimate,” unpublished manuscript, received 1 November 2001; 350 million from 9. Peter G. Peterson, “Gray Dawn: The U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA), The State of Global Aging Crisis,” Foreign Affairs, Janu- World Population 1999 (New York: 1999), p. 2. ary/February 1999, pp. 42–55; Phillip J. Long- man, “The Global Aging Crisis,” U.S. News & 15. Nancy E. Riley, “Gender, Power, and Pop- World Report, 1 March 1999, pp. 30–39. ulation Change,” Population Bulletin, May 1997; effects of education in high-fertility coun- 10. United Nations, op. cit. note 2. tries from United Nations, Population Division, Women’s Education and Fertility Behaviour: 11. International Organization for Migration Recent Evidence from the Demographic and (IOM), World Migration Report (New York: Health Surveys (New York: 1995), p. 29. 2000), p. 3; global migration data from United Nations, International Migration and Develop- 16. Barbara Mensch, Judith Bruce, and Mar-

235 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 6 garet Greene, The Unchartered Passage: Girls’ tion and Natural Resources in the New Millenni- Adolescence in the Developing World (New York: um (Washington, DC: PAI, 2000); cropland Population Council, 1998), p. 29. from ibid.; forests from Theodore Panayotou, “The Population, Environment, and Develop- 17. Figure of 75 million from PAI, Educating ment Nexus,” in Robert Cassen et al., Popula- Girls: Gender Gaps and Gains (Washington, DC: tion and Development: Old Debates, New 1998); information on women’s earnings from Conclusions (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction United Nations, The World’s Women 2000: Publishers, 1994), pp. 172–73, from Engelman Trends and Statistics (New York: 2000), p. 132. et al., op. cit. this note, pp. 12–13, and from Table 6–1 based on the following: education Tom Gardner-Outlaw and Robert Engelman, from United Nations, op. cit. this note, pp. 87, Forest Futures: Population, Consumption and 91, and from UNFPA, The State of World Wood Resources (Washington, DC: PAI, 1999); Population 2001 (New York: 2001), p. 41; Richard P. Cincotta et al., “Human Population women-headed households’ vulnerability from in the Biodiversity Hotspots,” Nature, 27 April International Fund for Agricultural Develop- 2001, pp. 990–92. ment, Rural Poverty Report 2001 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001), pp. 28–29; 19. Malin Falkenmark and Carl Widstrand, Allen Dupree and Wendell Primus, Declining “Population and Water Resources: A Delicate Share of Children Lived with Single Mothers in the Balance,” Population Bulletin (Population Ref- Late 1990s: Substantial Differences by Race and erence Bureau), November 1992. Income (Washington, DC: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 2001); women’s earnings 20. Postel, op. cit. note 18, pp. 6, 129. from United Nations, op. cit. this note; one third from UNFPA, op. cit. this note, p. 38; 500 21. Water scarcity and stress projections from largest corporations from United Nations, op. Engelman et al., op. cit. note 18; poor pay more cit. this note, p. 130; International Monetary for water from Patrick Webb and Maria Iskan- Fund from UNIFEM, Progress of the World’s darani, Water Insecurity and the Poor: Issues and Women 2000 (New York: United Nations Devel- Research Needs, ZEF-Discussion Papers on opment Fund for Women, 2000), p. 32; Inter- Development Policy No. 2 (Bonn: Center for national Women’s Democracy Center, Development Research, 1998), pp. 29–31; “Women’s Political Participation,” fact sheet, at numbers without safe water and sanitation from , viewed 23 WHO and UNICEF, Global Water Supply and July 2001; Women’s Environment and Develop- Sanitation Assessment 2000 Report (New York: ment Organization (WEDO), “Fact Sheet 3: 2000), p. 8. Women in Government, Get the Balance Right,” at , 22. Number of deaths annually from Peter H. viewed 17 October 2001; civic freedom from Gleick, ed., Water in Crisis: A Guide to the David Dollar and Roberta Gatti, Gender World’s Fresh Water Resources (Oxford: Oxford Inequality, Income, and Growth: Are Good Times University Press, 1992); Sandra L. Postel and Good for Women? (Washington, DC: World Bank Aaron T. Wolf, “Dehydrating Conﬂict,” Foreign Development Research Group, 1999), pp. 5–6. Policy, September/October 2001, p. 62.

18. Usable water from Sandra Postel, Last Oasis 23. United Nations, op. cit. note 2; 25 percent (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1997), of emissions from G. Marland, T. A. Boden, and pp. 27–28; half of usable portion from Sandra L. R. J. Andres, Carbon Dioxide Information Postel, Gretchen C. Daily, and Paul R. Ehrlich, Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laborato-

“Human Appropriation of Renewable Fresh ry, “Global, Regional, and National Annual CO2 Water,” Science, 9 February 1996. Table 6–2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement based on the following: fresh water from Robert Production, and Gas Flaring: 1751–1998 Engelman et al., People in the Balance: Popula- (revised July 2001),” at

236 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 6 ndps/ndp030.html>, viewed 13 August 2001; 29. Christian G. Mesquida and Neil I. Wiener, U.S. and Africa comparison based on U.S. “Male Age Composition and the Severity of Department of Energy, Energy Information Conflicts,” Politics in the Life Sciences, Septem- Administration, International Energy Outlook ber 1999, pp. 181–89; for population and envi- 1998, April 1998 (Washington, DC: 1998), with ronmental scarcity connections to conflict growth rates for regional and global carbon generally, see Thomas Homer-Dixon and Valerie emissions 2020–50 in Robert T. Watson et al., Percival, Environmental Scarcity and Violent eds., Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adapta- Conflict: Briefing Book (Washington, DC: Amer- tions and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scien- ican Association for the Advancement of tific-Technical Analyses: Contribution of Working Science/University of Toronto, 1996). Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 30. The Programme of Action of the Interna- (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996). tional Conference on Population and Develop- ment, , viewed 23 July 2001. Worldwatch Paper 158 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, October 2001); Eric Chi- 31. Jodi Jacobson, Executive Director, Center vian, “Environment and Health: 7. Species Loss for Health and Gender Equity, Takoma Park, and Ecosystem Disruption—The Implications MD, discussion with authors, 2 October 2001. for Human Health,” Canadian Medical Associ- ation Journal, 9 January 2001, p. 68; Jon 32. Jane Hughes and Anne P. McCauley, Cohen, “The Hunt for the Origin of AIDS,” “Improving the Fit: Adolescents’ Needs and Atlantic Monthly, October 2000, pp. 88–104; Future Programs for Sexual and Reproductive “AIDS Wars,” The Economist, 16 September Health in Developing Countries,” Studies in 2000, pp. 87–88. Family Planning, June 1998, pp. 233–45; International NGO Youth Consultation on Pop- 25. Canlas quoted in Doris C. Dumlao, “Busi- ulation and Development, “Cairo Youth Decla- ness Gov’t to Adopt ‘Population Management ration,” 1994, , viewed on 18 September 27 June 2001. 2001.

26. David E. Bloom and Jeffrey G. Williamson, 33. Research on the impacts of information and “Demographic Transitions and Economic Mira- guidance from Douglas Kirby, Emerging cles in Emerging Asia,” World Bank Economic Answers: Research Findings on Programs to Review, September 1998, pp. 419–55. Reduce Teen Pregnancy (Washington, DC: National Campaign to Prevent Teen Pregnancy, 27. Lester Brown, Gary Gardner, and Brian 2001), and from Hughes and McCauley, op. cit. Halweil, Beyond Malthus (New York: W.W. Nor- note 32; UNFPA, “Supporting the Next Gener- ton & Company, 1999); sub-Saharan Africa ation of Parents and Leaders,” , viewed 12 Octo- ber 2001. 28. United Nations, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 34. Rodolfo A. Bulatao, The Value of Family World Urbanization Prospects, The 1999 Revision Planning Programs in Developing Countries (New York: 1999); Martin Brockerhoff and (Washington, DC: Rand, 1998), p. 24; Hanta- Ellen Brennan, The Poverty of Cities in the Devel- malala Rafalimanana and Charles F. Westoff, oping World, Policy Research Division Working “Potential Effects on Fertility and Child Health Paper No. 96 (New York: Population Council, and Survival of Birth-spacing Preferences in 1997), p. 5. Sub-Saharan Africa,” Studies in Family Plan- ning, June 2000, p. 99; Figure 6–2 based on

237 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 6

Nada Chaya et al., A World of Difference: Sexual UNIFEM, “Women at the Epicentre of the and Reproductive Health & Risks (PAI Report HIV/AIDS Epidemics: The Challenges Ahead,” Card 2001), wall chart and report (Washington, presentation at panel during the UN Special Ses- DC: PAI, 2001). sion on HIV/AIDS, New York, 27 June 2001.

35. Engelman, op. cit. note 1, pp. 22, 34–35, 44. Fertility decline from United Nations, op. 42; impact of the pill on American women’s cit. note 2. education from Claudia Golden and Lawrence F. Katz, “On the Pill: Changing the Course of 45. United Nations, “Background Note on the Women’s Education,” The Milken Institute Resource Requirements for Population Pro- Review, second quarter 2001, pp. 12–21. grammes in the Years 2000–2015,” unofﬁcial white paper, New York, 13 July 1994. 36. PAI, “How Family Planning Protects the Health of Women and Children,” fact sheet no. 46. Commitments at Cairo from Programme of 2 in second series (Washington, DC: April Action, op. cit. note 30; developing-country 2001). spending from UNFPA, Financial Resource Flows for Population Activities in 1998 (New 37. Role of family planning movement in fertil- York: 1999), p. i; 40 percent from Shanti R. ity decline from John Bongaarts, W. Parker Conly and Shyami de Silva, Paying Their Fair Mauldin, and James F. Phillips, “The Demo- Share? Donor Countries and International Popu- graphic Impact of Family Planning Programs,” lation Assistance (Washington, DC: PAI, 1998), Studies in Family Planning, November/Decem- p. 4. ber 1990; Bulatao, op. cit. note 34, pp. 28–30. 47. U.S. spending goal of $1.9 billion from 38. UNFPA, The State of World Population Conly and de Silva, op. cit. note 46, p. P82; cur- 2000 (New York: 2000), p. 23. rent spending from Public Policy and Strategic Initiatives Department, PAI, discussion with 39. United Nations, op. cit. note 2. Robert Engelman, 15 October 2001; gag rule from Richard P. Cincotta and Barbara B. Crane, 40. Number of women using contraception “The Mexico City Policy and U.S. Family Plan- from UNFPA, op. cit. 38, p. 11; one quarter and ning Assistance,” Science, 19 October 2001, pp. two thirds of men from ibid., p. 4. 525–26; U.S. appropriations for HIV/ AIDS spending from USAID, at , viewed “Government Faces Shortage of Contraceptives 22 September 2001. for the Poor,” Jakarta Post, 17 July 2001; increased contraceptive spending needs from 48. Religious opposition to contraception from Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, Executive Director, Oscar Harkavy, Curbing Population Growth: An UNFPA, opening address at Meeting the Repro- Insider’s Perspective on the Population Movement ductive Health Challenge: Securing Contracep- (New York: Plenum Press, 1995), pp. 93, 95, tives, and Condoms for HIV/AIDS Prevention, 163. Istanbul, 3 May 2001, p. 4. 49. Farzaneh Foudi, “Iran’s Approach to 42. United Nations, Report on the Global Family Planning,” Population Today, July/August HIV/AIDS Epidemic (Geneva: UNAIDS, 1999, p. 4; United Nations, op. cit. note 2. 2000); Rachel L. Swarns, “Study Says AIDS Is Now Chief Cause of Death in South Africa,” 50. “Church Active in Care for Those with New York Times, 17 October 2001. AIDS,” Catholic News Service, 9 July 2001.

43. Noeleen Heyzer, Executive Director, 51. Marta Lamas, “Standing Fast in Mexico:

238 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 6

Protecting Women’s Rights in a Hostile Cli- “Suicides of Women Rising in Traditional mate,” NACLA Report on the Americas, Southeast Turkey,” Washington Post, 9 Novem- March/April 2001, p. 40; David M. Adamson et ber 2000; UNFPA, op. cit. note 38, p. 38. al., How Americans View World Population Issues: A Survey of Public Opinion (Santa Moni- 55. UNFPA, op. cit. note 38, p. 38; Barbara ca, CA: RAND, 2000), pp. 40, 41, 51, 52. Mensch, Judith Bruce, and Margaret Greene, The Unchartered Passage: Girls’ Adolescence in 52. Mizanur Rahman, Julie DaVanzo, and the Developing World (New York: Population Abdur Razzaque, “Do Better Family Planning Council, 1998), p. 46. Services Reduce Abortion in Bangladesh?” Lancet, 29 September 2001, pp. 1051–56. 56. World Bank, Engendering Development: Through Gender Equality in Rights, Resources, 53. Karen Hardee et al., Post-Cairo Reproduc- and Voice (New York: Oxford University Press, tive Health Policies and Programs: A Compara- 2001), pp. 152–54; one third share from tive Study of Eight Countries, Policy Papers No. UNFPA, op. cit. note 38, p. 38. 2 (Washington: The Futures Group Internation- al, September 1998); Celia W. Dugger, “Relying 57. World Bank, op. cit. note 56; nations in on Hard and Soft Sells, India Pushes for Steril- sub-Saharan Africa from UNFPA, op. cit. note ization,” New York Times, 22 June 2001; China 38, p. 41; Lisa C. Smith and Lawrence Haddad, from Sophia Woodman, “Draft Law Fails to Overcoming Child Malnutrition in Developing Address Real Population Issues,” South China Countries: Past Achievements and Future Choices Morning Post, 9 July 2001; India from Rami (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Chhabra, “Saying Goodbye to Targets,” People Research Institute, February 2000), p. 44. & the Planet, vol. 6, no. 1 (1997), pp. 14–15, from Leela Visaria, Shireen Jejeebhoy, and Tom 58. Brazil study from World Bank, op. cit. note Merrick, “From Family Planning to Reproduc- 56, p. 148; Dollar and Gatti, op. cit. note 17, p. tive Health: Challenges Facing India,” Interna- 21; relationship between female enrollment and tional Family Planning Perspectives, vol. 25 income from UNFPA, op. cit. note 38, p. 40. supplement (1999), pp. S44–49, and from Michael A. Koenig, Gillian H. C. Foo, and 59. Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU), “Women Ketan Joshi, “Quality of Care Within the Indian in National Parliaments,” at , updated 12 October 2001; of Recent Evidence,” Studies in Family Plan- IPU, Women in Parliaments 1945–1995: A ning, March 2000, p. 13. World Statistical Survey (Geneva: 1995); sectors of government from Socorro Reyes, “Getting 54. WHO, Violence Against Women (Geneva: the Balance Right: Strategies for Change 1996); Lori Heise, Mary Ellsberg, and Megan Introduction,” at , March 2001; Lamas, op. cit. Women,” Population Reports, December 1999, note 51, p. 40. p. 5. Box 6–3 from the following: UNICEF, “Domestic Violence Against Women and Girls,” 60. WEDO, “Fact Sheet 2: Women Making a Innocenti Digest, May 2000, p. 6; Celia W. Dug- Difference,” at , viewed 18 July 2001; IPU, “Women in Don’t Get Born,” New York Times, 6 May 2001; National Parliaments,” op. cit. note 59. UNICEF, Innocenti Digest, May 2000, p. 3; WHO, “Female Genital Mutilation,” fact sheet 61. Rachel Kyte, Senior Specialist, Internation- no. 241 (Geneva: June 2000); UNFPA, op. cit. al Finance Corporation, Washington, DC, dis- note 38, p. 29; Molly Moore, “In Turkey, cussion with authors, 26 July 2001. ‘Honor Killing’ Follows Families to Cities,” Washington Post, 8 August 2001; Suzan Fraser, 62. World Resources Institute, World Resources:

239 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTERS 6 AND 7

1994–95 (New York: Oxford University Press, 01colo.htm>, and from Project Underground, 1994), p. 53; Agnes Quisumbing, Senior “Colombia: Oxy’s Relationship with Military Research Fellow, International Food Policy Turns Deadly,” 30 June 2001, at CorpWatch, Research Institute, Washington, DC, discussion ; Sudan from Christian Aid, Scorched Earth (London: 2001), from Dan Connell, 63. Bina Agarwal from International Fund for “Sudan: Recasting U.S. Policy,” Foreign Policy Agricultural Development, Rural Poverty in Focus, August 2001, from Amnesty Interna- Report 2001 (New York: 2001), p. 86; Bina tional, “Oil in Sudan—Deteriorating Human Agarwal, New Delhi, India, discussion with Rights,” 3 May 2000, from Elisabeth Sköns et authors, 23 August 2001; World Bank, op. cit. al., “Military Expenditure and Arms Produc- note 56, p. 149. tion,” in Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), SIPRI Yearbook 64. Engelman, op. cit. note 1, pp. 19–21, 34. 2001: Armaments, Disarmament and Interna- tional Security (New York: Oxford University 65. World Wildlife Fund, Disappearing Land- Press, 2001), p. 278, from Human Rights scapes: The Population/Environment Connection Watch, “Sudan: Human Rights Developments,” (Washington, DC: 2001). Human Rights Watch World Report 2001 (New York: 2001), p. 5, and from Sudan Update, 66. Richard E. Benedick, Human Population “Raising the Stakes: Oil and Conflict in Sudan,” and Environmental Stresses in the Twenty-first ; Chad and Cameroon from Project Report (Washington, DC: Woodrow “Hotspots!” New Internationalist, June 2001, Wilson Center, 2000). pp. 22–23, from Norimitsu Onishi with Neela Banerjee, “Chad’s Wait for Its Oil Riches May 67. Hardee et al., op. cit. note 53. Be Long,” New York Times, 16 May 2001, and from Abid Aslam and Jim Lobe, “Bush-Cheney Chapter 7. Breaking the Link Between Energy Plan Could Aggravate Ethnic Conflicts,” Resources and Repression Crisis Watch, Foreign Policy in Focus, , viewed 3 August 2001; of War,” Nando Times, 15 March 2000; Global Afghanistan from Bertil Lintner, “Taliban Turns Witness, A Crude Awakening (London: 1999), to Drugs,” Far Eastern Economic Review, 11 p. 4; United Nations Development Programme October 2001, pp. 26–27, from Tim Golden, (UNDP), Human Development Report 2001 “Afghan Ban on Growing of Opium Is Unravel- (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001), ing,” New York Times, 22 October 2001, from Annex Tables 1, 4, 9. Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia (New 2. Displaced population and food aid depen- Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2001), pp. dence from Blaine Harden, “Africa’s Gems: 117–24, from Jane Perlez, “Taliban Continue Warfare’s Best Friend,” New York Times, 6 April Trade Through Closed but Porous 2000, and from Fatal Transactions Campaign, Border,”New York Times, 30 October 2001, “Diamond, a Merciless Beauty,” , viewed 5 July 2001. Heights,” Christian Science Monitor, 25 July 2000, and from Michael Ross, “Natural 3. Table 7–1 based on the following: Colom- Resources and Civil Conflict: Evidence from bia from Thad Dunning and Leslie Wirpsa, “Oil Case Studies,” University of Michigan, Depart- Rigged,” Resource Center of the Americas, Feb- ment of Political Science, 11 May 2001; Cam- ruary 2001, at Global Policy Forum,

240 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 7

Observer, 18 June 2000. Number of conflicts Perspective,” in Berdal and Malone, op. cit. note active in 2000 from Arbeitsgemeinschaft Krieg- 6, pp. 93–97. sursachenforschung, “Das Kriegsgeschehen des Jahres 2000,” press release (Hamburg, Ger- 8. Simulated attacks and similar tactics were many: Institute for Political Science, University commonplace during the Liberian civil war of of Hamburg), December 2000; the one-quarter 1989–97; see Mats Berdal and David M. Mal- share of all conflicts having a resource dimension one, “Introduction,” in Berdal and Malone, op. is the author’s assessment based on existing lit- cit. note 6, p. 5. erature. 9. Kaldor, op. cit. note 6, pp. 90, 98–100; 4. Global intact forest area assessment from Dowden, op. cit. note 6. U.N. Environment Programme, An Assessment of the Status of the World’s Remaining Closed 10. Keen, op. cit. note 6, pp. 22, 24, 27; David Forests (Nairobi: 2001); forest loss in 1990s Keen, “The Economic Functions of Violence in from “Forests: Deforestation Continuing Civil Wars,” Adelphi Paper 320 (Oxford: Oxford Worldwide At High Rate, FAO Warns,” UN University Press for the International Institute Wire, 3 October 2001. The U.N. Food and for Strategic Studies, 1998); Kaldor, op. cit. Agriculture Organization found in its State of the note 6, pp. 110–11. World’s Forests 2001 assessment that the countries with the highest net loss of forest area 11. Ross, op. cit. note 3, p. 10; Kaldor, op. cit. between 1990 and 2000 were Argentina, Brazil, note 6, pp. 110–11. the Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, Mexico, Myanmar, Nigeria, Sudan, Zambia, and 12. Indra de Soysa, “The Resource Curse: Are Zimbabwe. Civil Wars Driven by Rapacity or Paucity?” in Berdal and Malone, op. cit. note 6, pp. 120–21, 5. Michael T. Klare, Resource Wars: The New 125–26. Landscape of Global Conflict (New York: Metro- politan Books, 2001), pp. 15, 20–21. 13. William Reno, “Shadow States and the Political Economy of Civil Wars,” in Berdal and 6. Switch from superpower patronage to Malone, op. cit. note 6, pp. 45–46, 56–57; de resource exploitation from Mark Duffield, Soysa, op. cit. note 12; higher Mobutu wealth “Globalization, Transborder Trade, and War estimate from Reno, op. cit. this note, p. 46; Economies,” in Mats Berdal and David M. Mal- lower estimate from Jimmy Burns, Mark one, eds., Greed and Grievance: Economic Agen- Huband, and Michael Holman, “Mobutu Built das in Civil Wars (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner a Fortune of $4bn from Looted Aid,” Financial Publishers, 2000), p. 73, and from Richard Times, 12 May 1997. Dowden, “War, Money and Survival: Rounding Up,” ; alternative revenue streams from Mary lie, Lansana Gberie, and Ralph Hazleton, The Kaldor, New and Old Wars: Organized Violence Heart of the Matter: Sierra Leone, Diamonds and in a Global Era (Stanford, CA: Stanford Univer- Human Security (Ottawa, ON, Canada: Partner- sity Press, 1999), pp. 102–03, and from David ship Africa Canada, January 2000), p. 15. Keen, “Incentives and Disincentives for Vio- lence,” in Berdal and Malone, op. cit. this note, 15. Kaldor, op. cit. note 6, pp. 92–93; Alex de pp. 29–31. Waal, “Contemporary Warfare in Africa,” IDS Bulletin, vol. 27, no. 3 (1996). 7. Paul Collier, Economic Causes of Civil Con- flict and Their Implications for Policy (Washing- 16. Project Underground, “Militarization & ton, DC: World Bank, 2000), pp. 3–4; Paul Minerals Tour,” , viewed 6 July

241 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 7

2001; Kim Richard Nossal, “Bulls to Bears: The “Hotspots!” op. cit. note 3; Leon P. Spencer, Privatization of War in the 1990s,” ; Small ton, DC: The Washington Ofﬁce on Africa, 18 Arms Survey, Small Arms Survey 2001 (New May 2001). York: Oxford University Press, 2001), p. 109; Smillie, Gberie, and Hazleton, op. cit. note 14, 23. De Beers and U.N. group estimates from p. 12. United Nations, Report of the Panel of Experts Appointed Pursuant to Security Council Resolu- 17. Occidental from Project Underground, op. tion 1306 (2000), Paragraph 19, in Relation to cit. note 3; Shell from Reno, op. cit. note 13, p. Sierra Leone (New York: 20 December 2000); 52; Talisman from Christian Aid, op. cit. note 3; higher estimates of share of conﬂict diamonds ExxonMobil from “Exxon ‘Helped Torture in from Christine Gordon, “Rebels’ Best Friend,” Indonesia,’” BBC News Online, 22 June 2001; BBC Focus On Africa, October–December Freeport-McMoRan from Abigail Abrash, “The 1999, cited in Smillie, Gberie, and Hazleton, Amungme, Kamoro & Freeport,” Cultural Sur- op. cit. note 14, and from Fatal Transactions vival Quarterly, spring 2001, p. 40. Campaign, op. cit. note 2.

18. Ease of use of small arms and other attrib- 24. Mamara quote in Barbara Crossette, “Sin- utes from Michael Renner, Small Arms, Big gling Out Sierra Leone, U.N. Council Sets Gem Impact: The Next Challenge of Disarmament, Ban,” New York Times, 6 July 2000. Worldwatch Paper 137 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, October 1997), pp. 25. Smillie, Gberie, and Hazleton, op. cit. note 10–12; statistics and estimates from Small Arms 14, pp. 8, 14; David Keen, “Going to War: How Survey, op. cit. note 16, pp. 7–8, 13–14, 59. Rational Is It?” ; Reno, op. cit. note 13, p. 19. Renner, op. cit. note 18, pp. 33–34; Small 48; International Rescue Committee from Arms Arms Survey, op. cit. note 16, pp. 107–08. Trade Resource Center, “March Update,” dis- tributed by e-mail, 7 March 2000; UNDP, op. 20. Box 7–1 based on the following: Karl Vick, cit. note 1, Table 1. “Vital Ore Funds Congo’s War,” Washington Post, 19 March 2001; Kristi Essick, “Guns, 26. Human Rights Watch, “Sierra Leone: Pri- Money and Cell Phones,” The Standard: Intelli- orities for the International Community,” June gence for the Internet Economy, 11 June 2001, 2000, ; Smillie, Gberie, and 84,pp.html>; Edward Marek, “Tantalum and Hazleton, op. cit. note 14, pp. 8, 14–15. Table War in the Congo,” , 8 April Rights Watch, op. cit. this note; Smillie, Gberie, 2001; Blaine Harden, “The Dirt in the New and Hazleton, op. cit. note 14; Africa Confiden- Machine,” New York Times Magazine, 12 tial, “Special Reports. Chronology of Sierra August 2001, pp. 35–39; United Nations, Leone: How Diamonds Fuelled the Conflict,” Report of the Panel of Experts on the Illegal , Exploitation of Natural Resources and Other viewed 9 September 2001; U.N. Security Coun- Forms of Wealth of the Democratic Republic of the cil, “Tenth Report of the Secretary-General on Congo (New York: 12 April 2001), pp. 8, 11. the United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone,” 25 June 2001; “Sierra Leone: Security Council 21. Duffield, op. cit. note 6, p. 84. Approves War Tribunal,” UN Wire, 25 July 2001; “Sierra Leone: Rebels, Militias Subvert 22. Christian Aid, op. cit. note 3; Connell, op. Gem Mining Ban, UN Says,” UN Wire, 30 July cit. note 3; Amnesty International, op. cit. note 2001; Douglas Farah, “Rebels in Sierra Leone 3; Human Rights Watch, op. cit. note 3; Mine Diamonds in Defiance of U.N.,” Wash-

242 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 7 ington Post, 19 August 2001; “Sierra Leone: 35. United Nations, op. cit. note 20, pp. Disarmament May Be Hurt by Lack of Funds, 41–42. Box 7–2 based on the following: ibid., U.N. Says,” UN Wire, 23 August 2001. pp. 10–12; “Miners’ Rush for Coltan Threatens Rare Gorilla,” Environment News Service, 13 27. Character of government forces from Keen, April 2001; Harden, op. cit. note 20; UNESCO, op. cit. note 25, and from Kaldor, op. cit. note “The World Heritage List,” , and “World Her- itage List in Danger,” , both viewed 11 August 6, pp. 35–36; William Reno, “War and the Fail- 2001; “One Minute to Midnight for Great ure of Peacekeeping in Sierra Leone,” in SIPRI, Apes,” Ecologist, July/August 2001, p. 15. op. cit. note 3, p. 151. 36. United Nations, op. cit. note 20, pp. 11, 29. United Nations, op. cit. note 23; Rachel 14; Harden, op. cit. note 20, pp. 37–38; Musi- Stohl, “U.N. Imposes Diamond Ban on Sierra ﬁky Mwanalasi, “The View from Below,” in Leone,” Weekly Defense Monitor, 14 July 2000. Berdal and Malone, op. cit. note 6, p. 142.

30. United Nations, op. cit. note 23; Smillie, 37. United Nations, op. cit. note 20, pp. 3, 7, Gberie, and Hazleton, op. cit. note 14, pp. 11, 14–19, 29–31; Mwanalasi, op. cit. note 36, pp. 47. 140, 145; Vick, op. cit. note 20.

31. Global Witness, Taylor-Made—The Pivotal 38. Chinese deal from United Nations, op. cit. Role of Liberia’s Forests in Regional Conflict note 20, pp. 29–36; other concessions from (London: 2001); Global Witness, “The Role of Vick, op. cit. note 20; Ridgepoint from Reno, Liberia’s Logging Industry on National and op. cit. note 13, pp. 57–58; timber from Hard- Regional Insecurity,” Briefing to the UN Securi- en, op. cit. note 2. ty Council, January 2001, ; Global 39. United Nations, op. cit. note 20, pp. 37–39; Witness, “Liberian Timber Profits Finance “Sabena/Swissair Declares Embargo on Trans- Regional Conflict,” 7 May 2001, ; Greenpeace Spain, Logs of War: The 40. United Nations, op. cit. note 20, pp. 3, 41; Relationship Between the Timber Sector, Arms Norimitsu Onishi, “Political Fever Wanes in Trafficking and the Destruction of the Forests in Congo, but Patient Is Still Sick,” New York Liberia (Madrid: 2001). Times, 11 April 2001; “Militia Clashes Threaten Congo Peace Process,” Reuters, 18 July 2001. 32. Greenpeace Spain, op. cit. note 31; rising importance of timber revenues from Global Wit- 41. Global Witness, A Rough Trade: The Role of ness, Taylor-Made, op. cit. note 31. Companies and Governments in the Angolan Conflict (London: 1998). MPLA is the acronym 33. United Nations, op. cit. note 23; Small for the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Arms Survey, op. cit. note 16, pp. 171–72. Angola; UNITA stands for National Union for the Total Independence of Angola. 34. Deaths and displacements from Taylor B. Seybolt, “Major Armed Conflicts,” in SIPRI, 42. Virginia Gamba and Richard Cornwell, op. cit. note 3, p. 26; foreign troops from “Arms, Elites, and Resources in the Angolan “Peace Here Means War Elsewhere,” The Econ- Civil War,” in Berdal and Malone, op. cit. note omist, 23 June 2001, p. 44; Colette Braeckman, 6, pp. 165–67; diamond production from Smil- “Congo: A War Without Victors,” Le Monde lie, Gberie, and Hazleton, op. cit. note 14; oil Diplomatique, April 2001. production from BP Amoco, 1999 BP Amoco

243 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 7

Statistical Review of World Energy (London: International Crisis Group, Aceh: Can Autono- Group Media & Publications, June 1999); alle- my Stem the Conﬂict? ICG Asia Report No. 18 gations of MPLA-UNITA collusion reported by (Brussels: 27 June 2001), p. 5. Gamba and Cornwell, op. cit. this note, by Mwanalasi, op. cit. note 36, and by Global Wit- 52. Human Rights Watch, “Indonesia: Why ness, op. cit. note 41. Aceh is Exploding,” press backgrounder (New York: August 1999); “Aceh: Ecological War 43. Trends in UNITA diamond income from Zone,” op. cit. note 51. Global Witness, op. cit. note 41, from Harden, op. cit. note 2, and from Ross, op. cit. note 3; 53. Human Rights Watch, op. cit. note 52; use of diamond income from United Nations, International Crisis Group, op. cit. note 51, p. Final Report of the UN Panel of Experts on Vio- 3; Ross, op. cit. note 3, pp. 23–26; Dini Djalal, lations of Security Council Sanctions Against “Silencing the Voices of Aceh,” Far Eastern Eco- Unita (New York: 10 March 2000). nomic Review Online, 5 July 2001; death toll from Seybolt, op. cit. note 34, p. 38. 44. United Nations, op. cit. note 43; Global Witness, op. cit. note 41. 54. McBeth, op. cit. note 51; “Exxon’s Aceh Plant Shutdowns,” op. cit. note 51; Wayne 45. De Beers decision to stop buying Angolan Arnold, “ExxonMobil, in Fear, Exits Indonesian diamonds from United Nations, op. cit. note 43; Gas Fields,” New York Times, 24 March 2001; Global Witness, op. cit. note 41; Dufﬁeld, op. “Violence Spirals in Troubled Aceh,” BBC News cit. note 6, p. 84. Online, 18 March 2001; “Exxon Back on Stream in Indonesia,” BBC News Online, 19 July 46. Lax controls and smuggling routes from 2001; new counterinsurgency operation from United Nations, op. cit. note 43, and from Sidney Jones, “For Indonesia, A Sea of Trou- Global Witness, op. cit. note 41; polishing in bles” (op-ed), New York Times, 27 July 2001. Israel and Ukraine from Gamba and Cornwell, op. cit. note 42, p. 166. 55. Robert Jereski, “Activist and Press Back- grounder on ExxonMobil Activities in North 47. United Nations, op. cit. note 43. Aceh,” International Forum for Aceh, 27 May 2001, viewed at East Timor Action Network, 48. Doward, op. cit. note 3; Global Witness, , 24 July 2001; “Mobil Oil and op. cit. note 1, pp. 4, 6–7. Human Rights Abuse in Aceh,” Down to Earth, November 1998; “Exxon ‘Helped Torture in 49. Global Witness, op. cit. note 1, pp. 5–7, Indonesia,’” op. cit. note 17. 11–12. 56. Ross, op. cit. note 3, p. 27; “No Flags for 50. Ibid., pp. 7, 13–16. Papua,” The Economist, 12 October 2000; Human Rights Watch, Violence and Political 51. “Aceh: Ecological War Zone,” Down to Impasse in Papua (New York: July 2001), p. 2. Earth, November 2000; “Exxon’s Aceh Plant Shutdowns to Affect Oil and Gas Delivery in 57. “Risky Business: The Grasberg Gold Asia,” press release, Far Eastern Economic Mine,” Project Underground Reports, , viewed 9 July 2001; ‘Helped Torture in Indonesia,’” op. cit. note 17; “The Strains on Indonesia,” The Economist, 3 “Activists Set Sights on ExxonMobil for ‘Com- December 2000; “Provocation,” The Economist, plicity of Silence,’” , 7 30 November 2000; Abrash, op. cit. note 17, June 2001; John McBeth, “Too Hot to Han- pp. 38–39; Michael Shari, “Freeport- dle,” Far Eastern Economic Review Online, 29 McMoRan—A Pit of Trouble,” Business Week, March 2001; Ross, op. cit. note 3, pp. 24–25; 31 July 2000.

244 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 7

58. Ross, op. cit. note 3, p. 28; Javanese immi- 65. Renner, op. cit. note 62, pp. 57–58; gration and disproportionate division of beneﬁts Human Rights Watch, The Price of Oil: Corpo- from Human Rights Watch, op. cit. note 56, p. rate Responsibility and Human Rights Violations 19; Rape and Other Human Rights Abuses by the in Nigeria’s Oil Producing Communities (New Indonesian Military in Irian Jaya (West Papua), York: January 1999); Global Exchange and Indonesia (Washington, DC: Robert F. Kennedy Essential Action, Oil for Nothing: Multinational Memorial Center for Human Rights, May Corporations, Environmental Destruction, Death 1999); Abrash, op. cit. note 17, p. 40. and Impunity in the Niger Delta (San Francisco, CA, and Washington, DC: January 2000); Mari- 59. Human Rights Watch, op. cit. note 56, pp. na Ottaway, “Reluctant Missionaries,” Foreign 2–3, 10–11; Jim Lobe, “Indonesia’s Hard Line Policy, July/August 2001, p. 48. Strengthens Secessionists in West Papua,” For- eign Policy in Focus, 1 July 2001. 66. Human Rights Watch, op. cit. note 65; Renner, op. cit. note 62, pp. 57–58. 60. “Talking About a Devolution,” The Econo- mist, 4 January 2000; “Megawati Sorry for 67. Human Rights Watch, op. cit. note 65; Rights Abuses,” BBC News Online, 16 August Global Exchange and Essential Action, op. cit. 2001; autonomy bill from Jim Lobe, “Indone- note 65; Shell from Reno, op. cit. note 13, p. sia: Aceh Arrests Could Portend Increased 52. Polarization, Violence,” Foreign Policy in Focus, 1 July 2001. 68. Human Rights Watch, op. cit. note 65; Human Rights Commission from Global 61. Jeff Atkinson, “Defending the Victims of Exchange and Essential Action, op. cit. note 65, Mining,” Inside Indonesia, , viewed 26 July nis,” BBC News Online, 25 July 2001, and from 2001; Kathryn Robinson, “Revisiting Inco,” Barnaby Phillips, “No End to Saro-Wiwa’s Inside Indonesia, January–March 2001; Roger Struggle,” BBC News Online, 15 January 2001. Moody, “Dirty Landlord,” Inside Indonesia, January–March 2001. Box 7–3 based on the 69. Table 7–3 compiled from United Nations, following: Klare, op. cit. note 5, pp. 203–07; Security Council Documents Full Search, Dan Murphy, “Behind Ethnic War, Indonesia’s , from United Nations, Old Migration Policy,” Christian Science Moni- op. cit. note 23, and from United Nations, op. tor, 1 March 2001; Robin Broad, “The Political cit. note 20, pp. 41–45; France and China from Economy of Natural Resources: Case Studies of Global Witness, Taylor-Made, op. cit. note 31, the Indonesian and Philippine Forest Sectors,” p. 6. The Journal of Developing Areas, April 1995, pp. 322–26. 70. Human Rights Watch, “Neglected Arms Embargo on Sierra Leone Rebels,” Brieﬁng 62. Michael Renner, Fighting for Survival Paper, 15 May 2000, as posted on Global Policy (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1996), Forum, ; United Nations, op. cit. note 3, p. 29. note 23.

63. Renner, op. cit. note 62; Klare, op. cit. note 71. Alan Cowell, “New ‘Labels’ for Diamonds 5, pp. 196–98. Sold by Sierra Leone,” New York Times, 28 October 2000; diamond ﬁngerprinting technol- 64. Klare, op. cit. note 5, pp. 196–98; June ogy from Smillie, Gberie, and Hazleton, op. cit. 2001 agreement from “Papua New Guinea: note 14, pp. 63–64. Security Council Members Back Peace Plan,” UN Wire, 15 August 2001. 72. “Angola: Diamonds Worth $1 Million

245 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTERS 7 AND 8

Smuggled Daily, UN Says,” UN Wire, 16 Octo- 76. Harden, op. cit. note 2; Nicole Gaouette, ber 2001; Norimitsu Onishi, “Africa Diamond “Israel’s Diamond Dealers Tremble,” Christian Hub Defies Smuggling Rules,” New York Times, Science Monitor, 1 June 2001; Smillie, Gberie, 2 January 2001; Andrew Parker, “Checks ‘May and Hazleton, op. cit. note 14, p. 9; electronics Not Halt All Illicit Diamond Exports,’” Finan- companies’ reaction from Harden, op. cit. note cial Times, 25 April 2001; Global Witness, op. 20, p. 38, and from Essick, op. cit. note 20. cit. note 41; United Nations, op. cit. note 23; idem, op. cit. note 43; Judy Dempsey and 77. Hilary French, “Socially Responsible Andrew Parker, “Belgium, UK in Drive to Halt Investing Surges,” in Worldwatch Institute, War Gems,” Financial Times, 26 June 2001; Vital Signs 2001 (New York: W.W. Norton & U.S. efforts from Ken Silverstein, “Diamonds of Company, 2001), pp. 114–15. Death,” The Nation, 23 April 2001, pp. 19–20, from Rachel Stohl, “Diamonds Are Forever,” 78. Small Arms Survey, op. cit. note 16, pp. Weekly Defense Monitor, 13 October 2000, from 251–83; the Declaration of a Moratorium on Anna Franklin and Rachel Stohl, “Attempts the Importation, Exportation and Manufacture Made to Control Conflict Diamonds,” Weekly of Small Arms and Light Weapons in West Africa Defense Monitor, 23 August 2001, from Cam- was adopted by the members of Economic paign to Eliminate Conflict Diamonds, “Ques- Community of West African States, see United tions and Answers About Conflict Diamonds Nations, op. cit. note 23. and the ‘Clean Diamonds Act,’” , viewed 10 September 2001, and from come of UN Small Arms and Light Weapons Congressman Tony P. Hall, “Hall Joins Leaders Conference,” Arms Control Today, September of Key Committee in Introducing Compromise 2001. on Conflict Diamonds,” press release (Washing- ton, DC: 2 August 2001). 80. Michael Renner, “U.N. Peacekeeping: An Uncertain Future,” Foreign Policy in Focus, Sep- 73. Silverstein, op. cit. note 72, p. 20; “Dia- tember 2000; Michael Renner, “Peacekeeping monds: EU to Discuss Conflict Gems; US Sena- Expenditures Rebound,” in Worldwatch Insti- tors Propose Ban,” UN Wire, 26 June 2001; tute, op. cit. note 77, pp. 84–85. worries of nongovernmental organizations from Franklin and Stohl, op. cit. note 72, and from Chapter 8. Reshaping Global Campaign to Eliminate Conflict Diamonds, Governance “Governments and Industry: Stop Blood Dia- monds Now!” 21 August 2001, . Protester is Killed by Police at Genoa Meeting,” New York Times, 21 July 2001; Serge Schme- 74. Forest Stewardship Council from Gary Ger- mann, “Hijacked Jets Destroy Twin Towers and effi, Ronie Garcia-Johnson, and Erika Sasser, Hit Pentagon,” New York Times, 12 September “The NGO-Industrial Complex,” Foreign Policy, 2001; 4,500–5,000 deaths from “Dead and July/August 2001, pp. 60–61; United Nations, Missing,” New York Times, 4 November 2001; op. cit. note 20, pp. 41–45. “For Now, A Global Movement is Stymied,” Boston Globe, 30 September 2001. 75. In the mid-1990s, for example, human rights and environmental organizations 2. World Bank Group, “World Bank Group launched campaigns aimed at Shell (for its role and IMF Will Not Hold Annual Meetings,” in Nigeria) and at Amoco, Texaco, ARCO, and press release (Washington, DC: 17 September Petro-Canada (for their roles in Myanmar); Ott- 2001); Mobilization for Global Justice, “Mobi- away, op. cit. note 65, pp. 47–48. lization for Global Justice Cancels its Call for

246 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 8

Street Demonstrations Against World Bank/ 8. Current population from United Nations, IMF at End of September,” press release (Wash- World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision ington, DC: 16 September 2001). (New York: 2001).

3. Inequality trends from U.N. Development 9. “WTO Chief Proposes World Environment Programme (UNDP), Human Development Organization,” Environmental News Service, 15 Report 2001 (New York: Oxford University March 1999; Renato Ruggiero, Director-Gener- Press, 2001); poverty ﬁgures from World Bank, al, World Trade Organization (WTO), “Open- World Development Report 2000/2001 (New ing Remarks to the High Level Symposium on York: Oxford University Press, September Trade and the Environment,” 15 March 1999; 2000), p. vi; Toepfer quote from “UN Environ- “Lessons from Seattle” (editorial), Washington ment Chief Urges World to Fight Root Causes Post, 1 December 1999. of Civil Unrest That Can Lead to Terrorism,” press release (Nairobi: U.N. Environment Pro- 10. UNEP, “International Environmental Gov- gramme (UNEP), 21 September 2001). ernance: Multilateral Environmental Agree- ments (MEAs),” paper prepared for the 4. Paul Blustein, “Cause, Effect and the Open-Ended Intergovernmental Group of Min- Wealth of Nations,” Washington Post, 4 Novem- isters or their Representatives on International ber 2001; Christian E. Weller, Robert E. Scott, Environmental Governance, Bonn, Germany, 17 and Adam S. Hersh, The Unremarkable Record July 2001, pp. 3–7. of Liberalized Trade, Brieﬁng Paper (Washing- ton, DC: Economic Policy Institute, October 11. Ibid., p. 17; U.S. Department of State, 2001); Martin Khor, “Globalisation and the Cri- Bureau of Oceans and International Environ- sis of Sustainable Development,” paper present- mental and Scientific Affairs, “Calendar of ed to World Summit on Sustainable Events,” at , viewed Development International Eminent Persons 18 August 2001. Meeting on Inter-linkages, United Nations Uni- versity Centre, Tokyo, 3–4 September 2001. 12. UNEP, “International Environmental Gov- ernance, Report of the Executive Director,” 5. Michael Grubb et al., The Earth Summit paper prepared for the Open-Ended Intergov- Agreements: A Guide and Assessment (London: ernmental Group of Ministers or Their Repre- Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1993); sentatives on International Environmental Maurice Strong, Where on Earth Are We Going? Governance, New York, 18 April 2001, pp. (New York: TEXERE LLC, 2000), pp. 17–19; Hilary F. French, “Learning from the 189–239. Ozone Experience,” in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World 1997 (New York: W.W. Nor- 6. Length of Uruguay Round from Jeffrey S. ton & Company, 1998), pp. 158–59; “Sinking Thomas and Michael A. Meyer, The New Rules Kyoto Protocol with Sinks,” Bulletin of the of Global Trade (Scarborough, ON, Canada: World Rainforest Movement, July 2001; Ashley Carswell Thomson Professional Publishing, T. Mattoon, “Bogging Down in the Sinks,” 1997), p. 25; United Nations, Agenda 21: the World Watch, November/December 1998, pp. United Nations Programme of Action from Rio 28–36. (New York: U.N. Department of Public Infor- mation, undated). 13. “Convention” is a legal term that describes what is known in more common parlance as a 7. Don Kirk, “Worldwide Outlook for treaty. Table 8–1 based on the following: Con- Tourism Poor,” New York Times, 27 September vention on Biological Diversity (CBD), at 2001; “Stocks Fall as New Data Reignites Fears ; Monique Chiasson, National on Economy,” Reuters, 25 October 2001. Reports Unit of CBD, e-mails to Jessica Dod- son, Worldwatch Institute, 13–21 August 2001;

247 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 8

CBD News, January/March 2001; Center for Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution International Earth Science Information Net- of Working Group I to the Third Assessment work , “The Convention on Biological Diversi- Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- ty,” CIESIN Thematic Guides, at , viewed 24 University Press, 2001), pp. 75–76. July 2001; Global Environment Facility (GEF), GEF Contributions to Agenda 21: The First 16. “EU Makes its Move to Ratify Kyoto Pro- Decade (Washington, DC: June 2000); U.N. tocol,” Environment News Service, 23 October Framework Convention on Climate Change 2001; French, op. cit. note 12. (UN FCCC), at ; Jon Hanks et al., Earth Negotiation Bulletin, 30 July 2001; 17. Biosafety Protocol at ; updated information un.org>; Convention to Combat Desertifica- on the status of ratifications is available at tion, at ; Down to Earth: . Newsletter of the Convention to Combat Deserti- fication, December 2000, pp. 1–3; “Desertifica- 18. Critiques of the convention from author’s tion: Parties to U.N. Convention to Open conversations with authorities on the biodiversi- Meeting in Geneva,” UN Wire, 1 October ty convention, from Joy Hyvarinen, The Con- 2001; Convention on Straddling Fish Stocks, at vention on Biological Diversity: Future Issues ; Protection of Birds, July 2001), and from idem, World Wildlife Fund, “Top Fishing Nations Strengthening the Convention on Biological Drag Feet on UN Fish Stocks Agreement,” press Diversity (Bedfordshire, U.K.: The Royal Soci- release (Washington, DC: 27 November 1997); ety for the Protection of Birds, August 2001). “Straddling Stocks Agreement Important to Large Migratory Fish,” Dispatches (newsletter of 19. UNEP, op. cit. note 10, pp. 33–34; WTO, TRAFFIC), February 2000; Prior Informed Committee on Trade and Environment, “Com- Consent Convention, at ; Persis- pliance and Dispute Settlement Provisions in the tent Organic Pollutants, at ; WWF’s Global Toxic ments,” Note by the WTO and UNEP Secre- Chemicals Initiative, “Summary of Key Ele- tariats, 6 June 2001. ments in the Global POPs Treaty,” 14 Decem- ber 2000, at , viewed ment (London: Earthscan, 2001), pp. 158–84. on 27 July 2001; UNEP, “Stockholm Conven- tion on POPs,” UNEP Chemicals, June 2001. 21. UNEP and International Institute for Sus- tainable Development (IISD), Environment and 14. Andrew C. Revkin, “178 Nations Reach a Trade: A Handbook (Winnipeg, MN, Canada: Climate Accord; U.S. Only Looks On,” New IISD, 2000), pp. 53–59. York Times, 24 July 2001; “Climate Deal Reached in Bonn,” Environmental News Service, 22. Aaron Cosbey and Stas Burgiel, “The 23 July 2001; “CLIMATE CHANGE: Coun- Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety: An Analysis of tries Accused of Attempting To Renegotiate Results,” Briefing Note (Winnipeg, MN, Cana- Kyoto,” UN Wire, 31 October 2001. da: IISD, 2000).

15. Kyoto Protocol, at , viewed 29 dures from United Nations, Division for Ocean October (Annex I includes industrial nations Affairs and Law of the Sea, “Settlement of Dis- and 38 economies in transition); 60–80 percent putes,” at , viewed 29 October 2001, and from

248 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 8

Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes, 2002, according to “FY2002 Annual Perfor- The New Sovereignty (Cambridge, MA: Harvard mance Plan and Congressional Justification University Press, 1995), pp. 217–18. Appropriation (EPA’s Proposed Budget),” at , viewed on 12 October 2001. World World/Global Environment Organization military expenditures of $784 billion in 2000 (W/GEO): A First Step Toward Improved from Stockholm International Peace Research International Institutional Arrangements for Institute, “World and Regional Military Expen- Environment and Development?” unpublished diture Estimates, 1991–2000,” at , viewed “Stunting Green Progress,” Financial Times, 5 11 October 2001. July 2000. 28. IISD, “Summary of the Expert Consulta- 25. GEF, op. cit. note 13, pp. 6–9; idem, Joint tions on International Environmental Gover- Summary of the Chairs, GEF Council Meeting, nance 28–29 May 2001,” Sustainable May 9–11, 2001 (Washington, DC: 15 May Developments; idem, “Summary of the Second 2001), p. 2. Meeting of the Open-Ended Intergovernmental Group of Ministers or their Representatives on 26. GEF, op. cit. note 13, pp. 3–5; idem, “GEF International Environmental Governance: 17 Projects—Allocations and Disbursements,” 3 July 2001,” Earth Negotiations Bulletin, 18 July October 2001, paper submitted to Meeting on 2001; idem, “Summary of the Third Open- the Third Replenishment of the GEF Trust Ended Intergovernmental Group of Ministers or Fund, 11–12 October 2001. their Representatives on International Environ- mental Governance: 9–10 September 2001,” 27. UNEP’s budget for two years (2000–01) Earth Negotiations Bulletin, 12 September was $196.7 million, per UNEP Governing 2001. Council, Nairobi, 5–9 February 2001, “Global Ministerial Environment Forum, Programme, 29. UNEP, Report of the Chair, Open-Ended the Environment Fund and Administrative and Intergovernmental Group of Ministers or their other Budgetary Matters, Report of the Execu- Representatives on International Environmental tive Director,” 2 October 2000, p. 10. This fig- Governance, Second Meeting, Bonn, Germany, ure includes the resources from the U.N. regular 17 July 2001; IISD, “Summary of the Third budget, from the Environment Fund, and from Open-Ended Intergovernmental Group,” op. Trust Funds, along with counterpart contribu- cit. note 28. tions; $173.4 billion of this total was devoted to program resources and the remainder to the 30. See especially Chapters 2 and 33 of United support budget. Secretariat budgets from Nations, op. cit. note 6. UNEP, op. cit. note 10, pp. 41–43, and from Hilary French and Lisa Mastny, “Controlling 31. IISD, “Summary of the UNECE Regional International Environmental Crime,” in Lester Ministerial Meeting for the World Summit on R. Brown et al., State of the World 2001 (New Sustainable Development: 24–25 September York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2001), p. 171. 2001,” Earth Negotiations Bulletin, 28 Septem- U.S. military budget amounted to $300,767 ber 2001, pp. 9–10; Denmark, “World Summit million in Fiscal Year (FY) 2000 and to on Sustainable Development—A Global Deal,” $311,271 million in FY2001, according to first circulated at the UNECE Regional Ministe- , viewed on 12 October 2001. The able Development, Geneva, 24–25 September Environmental Protection Agency received just 2001. over $7.8 billion in fiscal years 2000 and 2001 and is expected to receive a similar amount in 32. United Nations, op. cit. note 6, Chapter

249 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 8

33; official development assistance in 1992 of Adjustment and Forestry Reform in Post-Suharto $60.42 billion (in current dollars) from Organi- Indonesia (Washington, DC: World Wildlife sation for Economic Co-operation and Develop- Fund and Center for International Forestry ment (OECD), Development Assistance Research, 2001). Committee, Development Co-operation 1993 (Paris: 1994), pp. 168–69. 37. Figure 8–2 and shares of total based on World Bank, Global Development Finance 2000, 33. Figure 8–1 from Development Assistance electronic database (Washington, DC: 2000), Committee, Development Assistance Committee with updates from idem, Global Development Online (DAC/o), OECD database, Table 1, Finance 2001, electronic database (Washington, updated 25 April 2001; aid as share of gross DC: 2001); debt-service payments as share of domestic product in 2000 and 2000 data in government expenditures from David Malin Table 8–2 from OECD, “Development Assis- Roodman, Still Waiting for the Jubilee: Prag- tance Committee Announces ODA Figures for matic Solutions for the Third World Debt Crisis, 2000,” news release (Paris: 23 April 2001); Worldwatch Paper 155 (Washington, DC: 1992 data in Table 8–2 from OECD, op. cit. Worldwatch Institute, April 2001), p. 24. note 32. 38. Figure 8–3 based on numbers provided in 34. Strong, op. cit. note 5, pp. 383–84. World Bank, Global Development Finance 2001, op. cit. note 37, p. 36; decline in 2001 from 35. For history of environmental critiques, see Institute of International Finance, Inc., Capital Bruce Rich, Mortgaging the Earth (Boston: Bea- Flows to Emerging Market Economies (Washing- con Press, 1994); recent trends in sectoral ton, DC: 20 September 2001). breakdown of World Bank lending from World Bank, “10 Things You Never Knew About the 39. China and India examples from French, op. World Bank,” at , viewed 12 October 2001; ment: A Lead Driver for Sustainable Develop- environmental impacts of private-sector lending ment?” Towards Earth Summit 2002, Economic from Urgewald, Friends of the Earth, and Cam- Briefing Series No. 1 (London: UNED Forum, pagna per la Reforma della Banca Mondiale, undated), p. 4. “Risky Business: How the World Bank’s Insur- ance Arm Fails the Poor and Harms the Envi- 40. Capital flow trends based on World Bank, ronment,” July 2001, at , and op. cit. note 37, p. 36; foreign-exchange trans- from Hilary French, Vanishing Borders (New actions from “Sustainable Finance: Seeking York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2000), pp. Global Financial Security,” Sustainable Finance 134–36. Briefing Paper, Towards Earth Summit 2002, at ; poverty related 36. Robert Weissman, “Why We Protest: The to Asian financial crisis from James D. Wolfen- IMF and World Bank Hurt Poor Countries and sohn, President, World Bank Group, “The Undermine Democracy” (op ed), Washington Other Crisis,” Annual Meetings Address, Post, 10 September 2001; Friends of the Earth Washington, DC, 6 October 1998, at International, “Environmental Consequences of , viewed 8 October international/imf/page1.html>, viewed 9 Octo- 1998. ber 2001; “IMF Tells Starving Nicaraguans to Tighten Their Belts, Cuts Off Debt Relief,” 41. United Nations, op. cit. note 6, Chapter 2; Social Justice Committee Action Alert, 12 Octo- on the differential impact of WTO rules on ber 2001, at , viewed 1 November 2001; Chisto- script of Press Briefing by Nobel Laureate and pher Barr, Banking on Sustainability: Structural former World Bank Chief Economist Joseph

250 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 8

Stiglitz, World Bank, Washington, DC, 11 halifaxinitiative.org/hi.php/Tobin/112>, October 2001, at , viewed 12 Taxation of Transactions to Aid Citizens, at October 2001; role of developing countries in . Seattle breakdown from Martin Khor, Third World Network, “Seattle Debacle: Revolt of the 46. Barbara Unmüßig, “New World Confer- Developing Nations,” posted to MAI-NOT list- ences: New Prospects for Global Environment serve, 10 December 1999. and Development Financing?” at , viewed 42. Need for “development round” and possi- 1 November 2001; Zedillo et al., op. cit. note ble income gains from Ernesto Zedillo et al., 42, pp. 21–22. “Recommendations of the High-level Panel on Financing for Development,” commissioned by 47. Number of NGOs at Global Forum from the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Robert Weissman, “Citizen Summit,” Multina- New York, 22 June 2001, pp. 8–10; developing- tional Monitor, July–August 1992, p. 29; num- country concerns on implementation from ber accredited from Strong, op. cit. note 5, p. “New Ministerial Text to Hand Ministers a 231; alternative treaties from Adam Rogers, The Challenge In Doha” and “New Implementation Earth Summit: A Planetary Reckoning (Los Draft—Another Round for Gains or Grounds to Angeles: Global View Press, 1993), pp. 253–87. Refrain,” BRIDGES Weekly Trade News Digest (International Centre for Trade and Sustainable 48. On different eras of NGO activism in the Development), 30 October 2001; nongovern- international arena, see Steve Charnovitz, “Two mental organization (NGO) skepticism from Centuries of Participation: NGOs and Interna- “Our World is Not for Sale. WTO: Shrink or tional Governance,” Michigan Journal of Inter- Sink,” endorsed by 360 organizations as of national Law, winter 1997, pp. 183–286. 24 October 2001, at , viewed 31 October 2001. Yearbook of International Organizations (Munich: K. G. Sauer Verlag, 1999/2000 and 43. For information on the Financing for 2000/2001), Appendix 3, Table 1. Development Summit, see . 50. Climate Action Network, at , viewed on 29 October 44. James Tobin, “A Tax on International Cur- 2001; Third World Network, at , viewed 29 October 2001. opment Report 1994 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994), p. 70; revenue estimates 51. Number of transnational corporations in from a Tobin tax from Zedillo et al., op. cit. note 1970 from Joshua Karliner, The Corporate Plan- 42, p. 20; Michael Renner, “U.N. Funds Stay on et (San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, 1997), p. Roller Coaster,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital 5; numbers in 2000 from U.N. Conference on Signs 2001 (New York: W.W. Norton & Compa- Trade and Development, World Investment ny, 2001), p. 60. Report 2001 (New York: United Nations, 2001), pp. xiii, 10. 45. “Letter to the UN High Level Panel,” signed by 64 NGOs in 26 countries, circulated 52. History of efforts to negotiate U.N. Code via e-mail by Robin Round, Halifax Initiative, of Conduct from Virginia Hauﬂer, A Public Role Vancouver, BC, Canada; Halifax Initiative, for the Private Sector: Industry Self-Regulation in “Taxing Currency Transactions for Develop- a Global Economy (Washington, DC: Carnegie ment,” United Nations Financing for Develop- Endowment for International Peace, 2001), pp. ment Submission, January 2001, at

251 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 8

OECD, “OECD Guidelines for Multinational porate Partnerships at the United Nations,” at Enterprises,” at , tangled.html>, viewed 29 October 2001. viewed 14 August 2001; CERES Principles, at ; Natural step, at ; International Chamber of tary Codes Can Make Corporations Model Citi- Commerce, “Business Charter for Sustainable zens,” The International Economy, March/April Development,” at , viewed 16 August 2001; Eco-Management and Audit Scheme, at 55. Andrew Revkin, “Some Energy Executives ; ISO, “ISO 14000—Meet Urge U.S. Shift on Global Warming,” New York the Whole Family!” at , viewed 17 man, McCain Call for Greenhouse Gas Caps,” August 2001; idem, “ISO Survey of ISO 9000 Environmental News Service, 3 August 2001. and ISO 14000 Certiﬁcates 10th Cycle: up to and including 31 December 2000,” at 56. David Ignatius, “Think Globally, Build , viewed 16 August 2001; Wolfgang H. Reinicke and Francis Deng, Criti- J. Timmons Roberts, “Emerging Global Envi- cal Choices: The United Nations, Networks, and ronmental Standards,” Journal of Developing the Future of Global Governance (Ottawa, ON, Societies, March 1998, pp. 144–63; “Going Canada: International Development Research Green with Less Red Tape,” Business Week, 23 Centre, 2000). September 1996, pp. 75–76; Global Reporting Initiative, “Sustainability Reporting Guidelines 57. World Commission on Dams, Dams and on Economic, Environmental, and Social Development: A New Framework for Decision- Performance,” June 2000, at , viewed 17 August 2001; Edward Goodell, ed., “Standards of Corporate 58. Ibid.; Reinicke and Deng, op. cit. note 56, Social Responsibility,” Social Venture Network, pp. 37–40. 1999, at , viewed 16 August 2001; UN Global Compact, at ; “Principled Partnership with Dams Forum Meeting at the Spier Village, 25–27 World Business,” Financial Times, 6 September February 2001, Cape Town, South Africa, pp. 2000; Jennifer Nash and John Ehrenfeld, “Code 40, 45, 52, 55; Navroz K. Dubash et al., A Green,” Environment, January/February 1996, Watershed in Global Governance?: An Indepen- pp. 16–20, 36–45. dent Assessment of the World Commission on Dams, Executive Summary (Washington, DC: 53. U.N. Department of Public Information, World Resources Institute, Lokayan, and “The Global Compact: Shared Values for the Lawyer’s Environmental Action Team, 2001). Global Market,” brochure (New York: Decem- ber 1999); Planet Ark Environment News, 60. “NGOs Protest Against World Bank Posi- “More than 300 Firms Sign Up for UN Global tion on World Dams Report,” e-mail from Peter Compact,” 27 July 2001, at , World Bank, “World Bank Group Appoints Dr. viewed 1 August 2001; “26 July: High Emil Salim to Head Extractive Industries Review Level Meeting of Business, Labour, and Civil Consultative Process,” press release (Washing- Society, Views from Participants,” at , viewed 31 October 2001; Kenny Bruno 61. “What the ‘Extractive Industries Review’ and Joshua Karliner, “Tangled up in Blue: Cor- is,” at , viewed 25 October

252 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 8

2001; Daphne Wysham, “NGO Letter to James and Japan Center for International Exchange, Wolfensohn, President, World Bank Group,” 2000), pp. 143–76; Coalition for an Interna- Sustainable Energy & Economy Network et al., tional Criminal Court, at , Washington, DC, 8 October 2001. viewed 31 October 2001.

62. Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri, “What 68. Number at annual forums in 1993 and the Protesters in Genoa Want,” New York Times, 2000 from Minu Hemmati et al., Multi- 20 July 2001; Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “Globaliza- Stakeholder Processes for Governance and Sustain- tion’s Democratic Deficit,” Foreign Affairs, ability—Beyond Deadlock and Conﬂict (London: July/August 2001. Earthscan, forthcoming), p. 26 (in version available online at ).

64. Ibid.; Lori Wallach and Michelle Sforza, 69. Ibid., pp. 26–29; United Nations, “Major Whose Trade Organization (Washington, DC: Groups, Report of the Secretary-General,” Public Citizen, 1999), pp. 195–203. Commission on Sustainable Develoment acting as the preparatory committee for the World 65. Steve Charnovitz, “Opening the WTO to Summit on Sustainable Development, 30 Nongovernmental Interests,” Fordham Interna- April–2 May 2001. tional Law Journal, November–December 2000, pp. 173–216. 70. National Councils on Sustainable Develop- ment from Earth Council, NCSD Report, 66. World Bank, “World Bank Revises Disclo- 1999–2000 (San José, Costa Rica: undated), p. sure Policy,” press release (Washington, DC: 7 1; Judy Walker, Director of Local Agenda 21 September 2001); Tahir Mirza, “Openness: Campaign, International Council for Local WB’s Move Found Insufﬁcient,” DAWN (Inter- Environmental Initiatives, Toronto, discussion net edition), 10 September 2001, at with Molly Sheehan, Worldwatch Institute, 29 , August 2001. viewed 11 September 2001; Robert Naiman, Center for Economic Policy and Research, 71. U.N. General Assembly, “Rio Declaration Washington, DC, “Why We Must Open the on Environment and Development,” Annex I of Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank the Report of the United Nations Conference Boards: the Case of User Fees on Primary on Environment and Development (Rio de Health in Tanzania,” circulated to the Stop-IMF Janeiro, 3–14 June 1992), at , viewed 23 October 2000; Elena Crisis,” New Republic, 17 April 2000, p. 60. Petkova with Peter Veit, “Environmental Accountability Beyond the Nation-State: The 67. “Reference Document on the Participation Implications of the Aarhus Convention,” Envi- of Civil Society in United Nations Conferences ronmental Governance Note (Washington, DC: and Special Sessions of the General Assembly World Resources Institute, April 2000); Latin During the 1990s,” Ofﬁce of the President of America from UNEP, Global Environment Out- the Millennium Assembly, 55th session of the look 2000 (London: Earthscan, 1999), pp. United Nations General Assembly, August 289–91; Africa from Peter Veit, World 2001; Motoko Mekata, “Building Partnerships Resources Institute, Washington, DC, discus- Toward a Common Goal: Experiences of the sion with Jessica Dodson, Worldwatch Institute, International Campaign to Ban Landmines,” in 1 November 2001; Paula J. Dobriansky, Under Ann M. Florini, ed., The Third Force: The Rise of Secretary of State for Global Affairs and Head of Transnational Civil Society (Washington, DC: the United States Delegation, “Governance as a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Foundation for Sustainable Development,”

253 State of the World 2002 NOTES, CHAPTER 8

Remarks to the UN Economic Commission for Europe Regional Ministerial Meeting for the World Summit on Sustainable Development, Geneva, 24 September 2001. Box 8–1 based on the following: Paul Taylor, Director of Good Urban Governance Campaign, U.N. Centre for Human Settlements (Habitat), discussion with Molly Sheehan, Worldwatch Institute, 27 August 2001; Samuel Paul, “Report Cards on Urban Services in Bangalore,” in Jim Antoniou, ed., Implementing the Habitat Agenda: In Search of Urban Sustainability (London: Devel- opment Planning Unit, University College Lon- don, 2001), pp. 178–79.

72. Thom Shanker, “White House Says the U.S. Is Not a Loner, Just Choosy,” New York Times, 30 July 2001; Alan Sipress, “U.S. Draws Abortion Line at U.N.,” Washington Post, 28 August 2001.

73. Former President Bush quote from Patrick E. Tyler and Jane Perlez, “World Leaders List Conditions on Cooperation,” New York Times, 19 September 2001.

254 Index

Aarhus Convention on aquifer depletion, 56 air travel, 109 Information, 93, 196 biotechnology, 57–58 Alcan, 42 Aaronson, Susan, 190 climate change effects, 6, 29, Algeria, 63 Abacha, Sani, 168 64 Amungme, indigenous peoples abortion, 141–42 conservation programs, 65–66 of Indonesia, 165 Aceh Freedom Movement consumer preferences, 70–74 Angola, 149, 151, 155–63, (Indonesia), 164–65 crop monoculture, 54–55 168–71 Afghanistan, 144, 150 cropland loss, 62–63 Annan, Kofi, xvii–xviii, 93, Africa dysfunctional farming, 53–57 190, 192 crop distribution, 61–62 erosion, 62–63, 65–66 Annapurna Conservation Area crop production, 59–61 Farm Bill, 66 Project (Nepal), 116 family planning, 132, 137–43 farm subsidies, 16, 53, 65, Antarctica, 120 gross domestic products, 14 71, 74 aquifer depletion, 56 hazardous waste disposal, 92 fertilizer use, 22, 53–55, 65 Argentina, 38 HIV epidemic, 12, 14, grain, 54, 57–59 arsenic, 87, 92 140–41 Green Revolution, 54 Asian Development Bank, 124 population growth, 130–34, irrigation, 7–8, 56, 193 Asian financial crisis, 186–87 136 land ownership, 61 Association for Better Land water scarcity, 133–35 local markets, 73–74 Husbandry (Kenya), 69 see also specific countries organic farming, 16, 63–66, Association for the Taxation of Agarwal, Bina, 69, 146 70–71, 96 Transactions to Aid Agenda 21 per capita acreage, 61 Citizens (France), 189 contents, 4, 175 pesticide use, 55, 65, 72, 74, Australia funding, 183 77, 89 carbon emissions, 35, 46 hazardous chemicals, 76 rural investment, 67–70 foreign aid contribution, 185 local involvement, 196 tree plantations, 8 Landcare movement, 71 sustainable development, xx, women in agriculture, 61, National Ecotourism 50, 102, 129, 175 69, 74 Strategy, 121 women’s roles, 129 World Neighbors, 51, 62 zero-waste factories, 18 Agip, 167, 168 World Summit priorities, 74 Austria, 105 Agreement on Trade Related see also cropland producti- automobiles Investment Measures, vity; food; Food and car sharing, 20 107 Agriculture Organization International Federation of agriculture, 51–74 (U.N.); forest products; Automobiles, 64 agribusiness control, 67–69 forests; livestock leaded gasoline, 81–83, agroecology, 52–53, 57–69 AIDS, 3, 11–14, 108, 140-41 94–95, 100

255 State of the World 2002 INDEX automobiles (continued) climate change policy, 5–6, China new technologies, 30, 41, 46 24–25, 40, 44–45 aquifer depletion, 56 recycling, 18–19 small arms policy, 171, 196 carbon emissions, 35, 38 see also carbon emissions; Business Charter for Sustain- coal consumption, 83 solar/hydrogen economy able Development, 191 cropland distribution, 68–69 business codes of conduct, deforestation, 9 Baka Pygmies, indigenous peo- 190–93 energy policy, 38 ples of Cameroon, 150 Business Environmental family planning, 143 Bangladesh, 130, 142 Leadership Council, 44 flooding, 9 Bartels, Carlton, 42 grain production, 54 Basel Convention on Hazardous Cambodia, 111, 150 international tourism, 103–05 Wastes, 90–91, 100 Cameroon, 150, 161 irrigation, 56 beef, see livestock Campesino a Campesino, 52 lead poisoning, 85 Belgium, 185 Canada migration, 131 Belize, 107, 113, 122 carbon emissions, 35, 39, 46 rural investment, 68–69 Berry, Wendell, 70 energy policy, 36–37 women’s vulnerability, 144 beta carotene, 58 farm economy, 67 Chivian, Eric, 135 Bhutan, 123 foreign aid contribution, 185 chlorine compounds, 79–80 biodiversity international tourism, 105 chlorofluorocarbons, 10, 97, 177 agricultural crops, 54–55 cancer, 87–88 Christian Aid, 71 convention, xxi, 177–78, Canlas, Dante, 135 chronic disease 180–82 Cantor Fitzgerald, 42 cancer, 87–88 economic value, 116 carbon dioxide, 5, 26–33 cardiovascular diseases, 87 extinctions, 8, 29 carbon emissions diabetes, 13–14 habitat loss, 8–10, 55, 111–12 carbon dioxide, 5, 26–33 dietary contributions, 13–14 population growth effects, global rise, 5, 28–29, 34 osteoporosis, 87 134, 147 population effects, 135 Parkinson’s disease, 82 see also conservation; stabilization, 30–33, 39 smoking effects, 13 endangered species taxes, 31 see also infectious disease Biosafety Protocol, 178, 180–81 tradable permits, 31, 37, 42 Climate Action Network, 189 biotechnology, 57–58 voluntary agreements, 37–38 climate change, 24–50 Blok, Kornelis, 47 see also climate change; fossil agricultural effects, 6, 29, 64 Bluewater Network, 111 fuels; renewable energy chlorofluorocarbons, 10, 97, Bonaire Marine Park, 114 Cargill Dow, 97 177 Bonn agreement, 45 Caribbean Tourism Organiza- corporate response, 38–45 Borneo, 166 tion, 110 disease spread, 13, 29 Botswana, 3, 145 Cato Institute, 40 ecological effects, 28–29 BP, 40–44, 163 Cayman Islands, 111 European Commission Brazil, 61–62, 85, 106 cellular telephones, 155–56 Programme, 31 Browne, John, 41 Center for a Livable Future, 65 floods, 29 Brubaker, Dave, 65 Center for Energy and Climate Framework Convention, 6, Buccini, John, 90 Solutions, 42 178 Budongo Forest Reserve Center for Health and Gender policy, 33–38, 45–50 (Uganda), 115 Equity, 137 recorded rise, 5, 26, 28 Bulgaria, 163 Center for International scientific evidence, 26–30 Bunch, Roland, 51, 57 Forestry Research, 185 sea level rise, 5–6, 26, 28 Burkina Faso, 60, 159–60, Chad, 150 stabilization strategies, 162–63 Chan, Julius, 167 30–33, 39 Bush, George H. W., 3, 197 Chelaton, Jayakumar, 101 storms, 52 Bush, George W., 3, 5 chemical economy, 77–80 see also carbon emissions Bush administration Chevron, 150, 156, 163, coal, 16, 35–37, 83 abortion policy, 141–42 167–68 Coalition for Environmentally anti-terrorism policy, 25 Chicago Climate Exchange, 42 Responsible Economies, 191

256 State of the World 2002 INDEX

Coca-Cola, 44 biotechnology, 57–58 see also gender disparity; Collier, Paul, 152 fertilizer use, 22, 53–55, 65 specific countries Collins, Terry, 88 irrigation, 56 diamonds, 156–63, 168–71 coltan, 155–56, 171 organic farming, 16, 63–66, diet, see food Colombia, 150, 155 70–71, 96 disease, see chronic disease; Commission on Sustainable per capita acreage, 61 infectious disease; specific Development (U.N.), see also aquifer depletion; diseases 183, 195 climate change Dollar, David, 145 communications technology, Cuba, 123 dos Santos, Eduardo, 163 see specific types cyanide pollution, 85–86 Dow Chemical, 80 Conference on Environment Dowling, Kevin, 142 and Development (Rio), DaimlerChrysler, 40, 41 DuPont, 40, 42–44, 81 xvii–xxii, 4–5, 10, 76, dams, 7–8, 193 129, 175–79, 183, 196 Dana Nature Reserve, 182 Earth Council, 117 see also Agenda 21; Conven- Davignon, Etienne, 40 Earth Summit, see Conference tion on Biological Dayak, indigenous peoples on Environment and Diversity of Borneo, 166 Development (Rio) conflict, see resource conflicts; DDT, 87, 90, 96, 179 Eco-Management and Audit small arms De Beers, 156, 162, 170 Scheme, 191 Congo, Democratic Republic deforestation, 8–9, 166 economy of, 151, 154–63, 168–71 DEHP, 86–87 agribusiness control, 67–69 conservation Denmark Asian financial crisis, 186–87 agricultural conservation carbon emissions, 39 biodiversity value, 116 programs, 65–66 energy policy, 36–37 bond financing, 187 Annapurna Conservation foreign aid contribution, business codes of conduct, Area Project (Nepal), 116 184–85 190–93 RARE Center for Tropical zero-waste factories, 18 chemical economy, 77–80 Conservation, 116 developing countries climate change response, water management, 7, 22 cholera, 13 38–45 see also biodiversity; endan- chronic disease, 13–14, 82, conflict economy, 152–57, gered species; forests; 87–88 164, 168–72 recycling; renewable cropland loss, 61–63 foreign aid, 183–86 energy; waste management deforestation, 9 foreign direct investment, Conservation International, 125 diarrheal diseases, 11–12 186–87 Convention on Biological education, 15, 127–29, forest products trade, 161, Diversity, xxi, 177–78, 132–33, 145, 147 168, 170 180–82 family planning, 132, green investment, 17, 22–23 Convention on Endangered 137–43 gross national product, 15–17 Species, 181 foreign aid, 183–87 insurance industry, 6 Convention on Persistent HIV epidemic, 3, 11–14, 108, investment in women, 21–22, Organic Pollutants, 75 140–41 129, 133 Convention on the Law of the international tourism, 105–09, Microcredit Summit, 17–18 Sea, 181 113, 122 microfinance institutions, corn, see grain malaria, 11, 13–14, 96 16–18 Costa Rica, 113–15, 121 malnutrition, 6–7, 56–62 paper production, 9 Costanza, Robert, 5 migration, 130–31 private investment, 186 cropland population growth, 127–48 rural investment, 67–70 Landless Workers Move- poverty, 6–7, 17–18, 56 socially responsible investment, 68 resource conflicts, 149–57 ment, 16–17 population effects, 134 sex education, 127–28, 132, technology development, 30–33 cropland loss, erosion, 62–63 135, 137 Tobin tax, 188–89 cropland productivity water conflicts, 8 tourism revenue, 103–06 agroecology, 52–53, 57–69 water scarcity, 6–8, 132–35 tradable permits, 31, 37, 42

257 State of the World 2002 INDEX economy (continued) taxes, 16, 31 70–71, 96 trade barriers, 187–88 tourism impacts, 109–12 subsidies, 16, 53, 65 transnational corporations, 186, tradable permits, 31, 37, 42 see also agriculture; cropland 190, 193 see also carbon emissions; productivity; fisheries; World Summit priorities, 15–20 conservation; deforestation; livestock see also agriculture; cropland ecosystems; pollution; Food and Agriculture Organiza- productivity; globalization; sustainable development; tion (U.N.), 8–9, 57 recycling; subsidies; sustain- toxic burden; water Ford, William, 20 able development; taxes; Environment Defense, 42 Ford Motor Company, 20, 40, 42, technology; World Bank Environmental Protection Agency 44 ecosystems (U.S.), 82, 93, 182 foreign direct investment, 186–87 biodiversity, 8–9, 29, 116, 134, erosion, 62–63, 65–66 forest products 147, 178 Ethiopia, 182 certification programs, 168, 170 coral reefs, 9–10, 55, 111–12 Ethyl Corporation, 81–82 deforestation, 8–9, 166 fertilizer runoff, 22, 53–55, 65 ethylene dibromide, 81–82 paper, 9 wetlands, xx European Blue Flag Campaign, 121 Forest Stewardship Council, 161, see also endangered species; European Commission, 31 170 river systems European Union forests ECOTEL, 121 beef ban, 194 carbon sink, 27 ecotourism, 102, 111–17 carbon emissions, 35, 46 deforestation, 8–9, 166 Ecuador, 111, 114–15, 121, 123 climate change policy, 36–37, flood control, 9 education, 15, 127–33, 145, 147 46–49, 177 paper fiber production, 9 El Salvador, 71 gross domestic product, 31 plantations, 8 Elf, 156, 163, 167–68 organic farming, 66 population effects, 134 Emergency Planning and recycling, 18–19 resource conflicts, 152, 161, Community Right-to-Know see also specific countries 168, 173 Act (U.S.), 93 exotic organisms, 111 Forte, 118–19 e-mission 55, 44 Exotic Tropical Timber Enterprise, fossil fuels endangered species 159 coal, 16, 35–37, 83 conventions, xxi, 177, 180–82 extinctions, 8, 29 natural gas, 38, 41, 164 extinction rates, 8, 29 see also biodiversity; endangered oil, 150, 164, 173 habitat loss, 8–10, 55, 111–12 species subsidies, 16, 35–37 habitat protection, 82, 93, 182 ExxonMobil, 40, 150, 155–56, sulfur dioxide emissions, 42 see also biodiversity; conserva- 163–65 taxes, 16, 31 tion; deforestation see also carbon emissions; energy family planning, 132, 137–43 renewable energy policy, 36–38, 40 farmland, see agriculture; Fourth World Conference on renewable energy, 16, 36–37, cropland loss; cropland Women (Beijing), 129 40–41, 186 productivity Framework Convention on solar/hydrogen economy, 40–41 fertilizer, 22, 53–55, 65 Climate Change, 24, 178 tax reform, 36–37 Financing for Development France voluntary agreements, 37–38 Summit (Monterrey), 188–89 ecological farming, 66 see also fossil fuels; pollution; fisheries energy policy, 36–37 specific energy sources algae blooms, 55 foreign aid contribution, 185 environment coral reef destruction, 9–10, 55, international tourism, 103, climate change effects, 28–29 111–12 105, 123 environmental democracy, 93–95 mercury contamination, 84 Freeport-McMoRan Copper & erosion, 62–63 floods, 7–9, 29, 193 Gold Inc., 155–56, 165 fiscal policy, 25–27, 93–95 food fuel cells, 41 green investment, 17, 22–23 consumer preference, 70–74 international governance, 176–83 grain, 54, 57–59 Galapagos National Park sustainable economy, 5–10, 16, hunger, 6–7, 56–62 (Ecuador), 111, 114, 116, 21, 45, 50 organic farming, 16, 63–66, 121, 123

258 State of the World 2002 INDEX

Gambia, 160 protests against, 176, 183–84, Human Development Index Gatti, Roberta, 145 188, 194 (U.N.), 17, 149, 157 Geiser, Ken, 95, 98–99 scope of, xxi, 16 Human Rights Watch, 168 gender disparity urban governance, 197 hunger, 6–7, 56–62 in agriculture, 61, 69, 74 World Summit priorities, 148, see also food civic freedom, 133 176, 182–83, 198 Huston, Perdita, 128 economic, 21–22, 129, 145, 148 gold production, 85–86 Hyatt International, 119 education, 15, 127–29, 132–33, grain, 54, 57–59 hydrochlorofluorocarbons, 177 145, 147 see also agriculture; cropland loss; hydrogen fuel, see solar/hydrogen myopia about, 143–48 cropland productivity; economy politics, 133, 145–46, 148 irrigation solutions, 143–48 Grameen Bank (Bangladesh), 17 India women’s vulnerability, Greece, 105 agroecology, 68 143–45, 148 green chemistry, 97–99 coal consumption, 83 World Summit priorities, 148 Green Globe 21, 121 dams, 193 General Agreement on Tariffs green investment, 17, 22–23 deforestation, 9 and Trade, 69 Green Leaf (Thailand), 121 family planning, 143 General Agreement on Trade Green Revolution, 54 infectious disease, 12 in Services, 107, 123 greenhouse gases, see carbon international tourism, 101, 124 General Motors, 40, 81 emissions; climate change; land distribution, 62 Gerakan Aceh Merdeka specific gas migration, 131 (Indonesia), 164–65 Greenpeace, 40, 124 natural gas use, 38 Germany Grenada, 108, 110 population growth, 130 carbon emissions, 5, 35, 37 Grubb, Michael, 47–48 urban governance, 197 coal subsidies, 35 Gruber, Pat, 97 wind energy, 186 energy policy, 36–37 Guatemala, 51–52, 61–62 women’s vulnerability, 144 foreign aid contribution, 185 indigenous peoples international tourism, 105 Halifax Initiative, 189 Amungme (Indonesia), 165 organic farming, 70 Hayzer, Noeleen, 140 Baka Pygmies (Cameroon), 150 recycling, 19 hazardous waste, see toxic burden Dayak (Borneo), 166 Gleick, Peter, 7 health Huaorani (Ecuador), 115 Global Climate Coalition, 40 chronic disease, 13–14, 82, 87–88 Kamoro (Indonesia), 165 Global Climate Compact, 50 climate change effects, 13, 29 Kuna (Panama), 109 Global Compact, 2000 (U.N.), dietary contributions, 13–14 Masai (Kenya), 108 190, 192, 198 drug development, 13–14 Ogoni (Nigeria), 167–68 Global Coral Reef Monitoring HIV/AIDS, 3, 11–14, 108, resource conflicts, 164 Network, 9–10 140–41 tourist interest, 108–09, 112–17 Global Environment Facility, smoking effects, 13 Indonesia, 95, 114, 122, 155, 116, 178–79, 182–84 women’s health, 128–29 165, 185 Global Forum (Rio), 189 World Health Organization, 12, industry Global Reporting Initiative, 192 14, 72, 85, 143 chemical economy, 77–80 global warming, see climate change see also infectious disease green investment, 17, 22–23 Global Water Policy Project, 60, heavy metals, 76, 80–87, 93–95 voluntary agreements, 37–38 133 Hilton International, 118, 119 zero-waste factories, 18 Global Witness, 163, 170 Hine, Rachel, 59 see also economy; natural globalization, 174–98 HIV/AIDS, 3, 11–14, 108, resources; pollution; democratization, 194–98 140–41 sustainable development; environmental governance, Holiday Inn, 119 technology 176–83 Honda, 46 infectious disease funding, 183–89 Honduras, 51–52, 57 cholera, 13 international tourism, 102–05 Honey, Martha, 115 diarrheal diseases, 11–12 nongovernmental organizations’ Huaorani, indigenous peoples HIV/AIDS, 3, 11–14, 108, role, 189–94 of Ecuador, 115 140–41

259 State of the World 2002 INDEX infectious disease (continued) International Maritime Jordan, 182 mad cow disease, 53, 70 Organization, 124 Juma, Calestous, 182 malaria, 11, 13–14, 96 International Monetary Fund measles, 11 environmental funding, Kabbah, Ahmad Tejan, 158 new diseases, 10–11 184–86 Kabila, Laurent, 160 prevention, 11–12, 22, 82, public disclosure, 195 Kaldor, Mary, 153, 159 86–87 rural funding, 67 Kamara, Ibrahim, 157 resistance, 11, 13 tourism-related projects, 105 Kamoro, indigenous peoples of tuberculosis, 10–12 women on staff, 133 Indonesia, 165 see also chronic disease International Organization for Kazini, James, 160 Innovest, 41 Standardization, 192 Keen, David, 153 insurance industry, 6, 41 International POPs Kenya, 61, 69, 108, 144–45, Inter-Continental Hotels and Elimination Network, 94 161 Resorts, 119 International Rescue Committee, Kimberley Process, 170 Intergovernmental Panel on 157 Klare, Michael, 152 Climate Change, 5, 26–30, International Rivers Network, Komodo National Park 34, 50, 109 193 (Indonesia), 114 International Air Transport international tourism, 101–26 Krimsky, Sheldon, 86 Association, 104 certiﬁcation programs, 9–22 Kuna, indigenous peoples of International Association of development, 105–09 Panama, 109 Antarctic Tour Operators, ecotourism, 102, 111–17 Kyoto Protocol on Climate 120 environmental impacts, 109–12 Change, 6, 24–50, 177, International Code of Conduct globalization, 102–05 180 on the Distribution and international tourist arrivals, Kyte, Rachel, 146 Use of Pesticides, 90 102–04 International Conference on revenue, 103–05 Lamas, Marta, 145 Population and Development sustainability, 117–25 land, see cropland loss; crop- (Cairo), 129, 137, 140–41, World Summit priorities, 126 land productivity; soil 148 Iran, 144 Landless Workers Movement, International Council of irrigation, 7–8, 56, 193 68 Cruise Lines, 118 see also aquifer depletion; landmines, 196 International Council on Local river systems Lang, Tim, 72 Environmental Initiatives, Italy, 105, 185 Langholz, Jeff, 113 39, 196 Law of the Sea, 181 International Ecotourism Society, Jackson, Richard, 82 lead, 76, 80–87, 93–95 112–13, 125 Jacob, Thomas, 44 Lewontin, Richard, 58 International Energy Agency, Jacobson, Jodi, 137 Liberia, 157–59, 168 36, 38 Japan Lindahl, Goran, 193 International Federation of carbon emissions, 35, 46 Lindblad Expeditions, 116 Automobiles, 64 climate change policy, 36–37, Lipton, Michael, 67 International Finance Corporation, 45–49 livestock 105, 146, 185 climate change response, 45–46 antibiotic-resistant disease, 71 International Food Policy foreign aid contribution, consumption, 71 Research Institute, 145–46 184–85 growth hormone ban, 194 International Hotels Environ- gross domestic product, 46 mad cow disease, 53, 70 ment Initiative, 118 international tourism, 105 production taxes, 65 International Institute for mercury poisoning, 84 logging, see forest products; Environment and recycling, 19 forests Development, 71 Johannesburg Summit, see World International Labor Rights Summit on Sustainable mad cow disease, 53, 70 Fund, 165 Development Madagascar, 147 International Labour (Johannesburg) malaria, 11, 13–14, 96 Organization, 108 Johnson & Johnson, 42–43 Malaysia, 110

260 State of the World 2002 INDEX

Maldives, 112 coltan, 155–56 oil, 150, 164, 173 malnutrition, 6–7, 56–62 conflicts, 149–72 organic materials, see recycling; manganese-based compounds, 82 mining, 85, 150–56, 160–61, waste management Manuel Antonio National Park 165–66 Organisasi Papua Merdeka (Costa Rica), 114 renewable energy, 16, 36–37, (Papuan Freedom Orga- manufacturing, see industry; 40–41, 186 nization), 165 natural resources; see also endangered species; Organisation for Economic technology fisheries; forests; fossil fuels; Co-operation and Mariano, Rafael, 67 recycling; resource conflicts; Development, 36, 77, 184, Marriott International, 104, 119 sustainable development; 190–91 Masai, indigenous peoples of water Oriental Timber Co., 159 Kenya, 108 Nepal, 116, 122, 146 Orrefors Kosta Bod, 94 materials economy, see natural Netherlands OSPAR Convention for the resources energy policy, 36–37 Protection of the Marine McDonald’s, 70, 97 foreign aid contribution, 185 Environment of the North- McNeely, Jeffrey, 63 international tourism, 105 east Atlantic, 89 McNeill, J. R., xx taxes, 65 osteoporosis, 87 meat consumption, see livestock toxic chemical policies, 94 Oxford Institute for Energy mercenaries, 154–55 New Zealand, 18, 46 Studies, 47 mercury, 76, 80–86, 92, 95 Nicaragua, 52, 185 ozone depletion, 10, 48, 97, 177, Mexico, 64, 110, 124, 131 Nigeria, 130, 151, 155, 158, 180 Microcredit Summit, 17–18 167–68 microfinance institutions, 16–18 Nike, 42 Packard, Kimberly O’Neill, 39 migration, 130–31 nongovernmental organizations Pakistan, 130 Minin, Leonid, 159 climate change agenda, 10, 42, Panama, 109 mining, 85, 150–56, 160–61, 189 Papua New Guinea, 155, 166–67 165–66 ecotourism initiatives, 116, Parkinson’s disease, 82 Mobutu, 154, 163 120–21, 126 Parson, Edward, 48 Monsanto, 70 global governance role, 9–10, Patkar, Medha, 193 Monteverde Cloud Forest 180, 182, 189–95 Pemex, 42 (Costa Rica), 113 microfinancing, 17–18 Pentagon attack of 2001 Montreal Protocol on Ozone resource conflict resolution, global focus, 20, 174–76, Layer, 10, 48, 97, 177, 180 163, 168, 170 196–97 Movement for the Survival of sustainability issues, 18, 23 implications, xix–xxi, 3–5, the Ogoni People, 67–68 toxic burden reduction, 93–94 25, 131 Mozambique, 69, 94 women’s rights initiatives, 129, war on terrorism, 3, 20 Muller, Benito, 47 137, 145–47 persistent organic pollutants, Multilateral Investment Guarantee see also specific organization 75–80, 86–96, 179 Agency, 185 North American Free Trade Peru, 108, 123 Agreement, 69–70, 72 pesticides Namibia, 122–23, 160 Norway, 36–37, 65, 184–85 DDT, 87, 90, 96, 179 National Center for Eco- nutrition, see food International Code of Industrial Development, 18 Conduct, 90 National Institute for Environ- Occidental Petroleum, 150, 155–56 organic alternatives, 16, mental Studies (Japan), 45 oceans 63–66, 70–71, 96 National Policy Association, 190 algae blooms, 55 persistent organic pollutants, National Toxicology Panel (U.S.), coral reef destruction, 9–10, 55, 75–80, 86–96, 179 86 111–12 pollution, 55, 72, 77 NatSource, 42 Law of the Sea, 181 taxes, 65, 74, 94, 100 natural gas, 38, 41, 164 sea level rise, 5–6, 26, 28 see also toxic burden natural resources see also fisheries Petronas, 150 biodiversity, 8–9, 29, 116, 134, Ogoni, indigenous peoples of Pew Center on Global Climate 147, 178 Nigeria, 167–68 Change, 32, 44

261 State of the World 2002 INDEX

Philippines, 39, 110, 135, 146 Conservation, 116 small arms, 149–60, 171 Poland, 46 Reagan administration, 48 see also resource conflicts pollution recycling, 9, 18–19, 91 SmartVoyager, 121 coal, 16, 35–37, 83 see also natural resources Social Justice Committee, 185 convention, 75 Reinhardt, Forest, 39 Social Venture Network, 44, 192 fertilizer runoff, 22, 53–55, 65 religion, 141–42 socially responsible investment, hazardous waste disposal, renewable energy, 16, 36–37, 16–17 91–93, 100 40–41, 186 soil, see cropland loss; cropland heavy metals, 76, 80–87, 93–95 Reno, William, 154 productivity; erosion mining, 85, 165–66 resource conflicts, 149–72 Soil Association, 63 persistent organic pollutants, anatomy, 152–57 solar/hydrogen economy, 40–41 75–80, 86–96, 179 certification systems, 168–72 South Africa, xxi, 61–62, 140, 146 pesticides, 55, 65, 72, 74, economic diversification, Spain, 105, 122–23, 185 77, 89 168–72 Sri Lanka, 60 tax shifting, 16 financing, 157–64 Standards of Corporate Social tourism, 109–12, 124 initiation, 164–68 Responsibility, 192 toxic burden, 75–100 resource–conflict relation- Stearns, W. Joseph, 80 see also taxes; specific sources ship, 151–52 Stiglitz, Joseph, 49, 195 polychlorinated biphenyls, 80, sanctions, 168–72 Stockholm Convention, 89–93, 87, 92, 94 World Summit priorities, 173 96, 100, 176, 179 polyvinyl chloride, 78–79, 83, Revolutionary United Front, Strong, Maurice, 184 86–87, 92 157–60, 169 subsidies Poon, Auliana, 103 rice, see grain coal, 16, 35–37 Population Action International, Ridgepoint, 161 farm, 16, 53, 65, 71, 74 127, 134, 141 river systems, 7–9, 29, 193 wind energy, 16 population growth, 127–48 see also water Sudan, 150, 155 demographic models, 128–32 Rotterdam Convention on Prior Suharto, 164–66 environmental effects, 132–37 Informed Consent, 90–91, sulfur dioxide emissions, 42 family planning, 132, 137–43 100, 178–79 Sumatra, 164–66 migration, 130–31 Royal Caribbean Cruises, 111 Sustainability Reporting policy, 140–43 Royal Dutch/Shell, 40–41, 167–68 Guidelines, 192 projections, 129–32, 139 Ruggiero, Renato, 176 sustainable development sex education, 127–28, 132, Russia, 35, 46 Agenda 21, xx, 4, 50, 76, 102, 135, 137 Rwanda, 160–61 129, 175, 183, 196 stabilization, 127, 129, agriculture priorities, 74 135–36, 139 Sabena, 155, 171 business codes of conduct, World Summit priorities, 148 Saleh, Salim, 160 190–93 Postel, Sandra, 6, 8, 60, 133 Sampat, Payal, 85 chemical priorities, 100 poverty, 6–7, 17–18, 56 Sandline International, 154, 167 Commission (U.N.), 183, 195 Pretty, Jules, 53, 59 Sandor, Richard, 42 conflict priorities, 173 PricewaterhouseCoopers, 42 Sankoh, Foday, 158 economic development, 20–23 prior informed consent, Saro-Wiwa, Ken, 167 gender priorities, 148 90–91, 100, 178–79 Scandic, 119 governance priorities, 176, Pronk, Jan, 47 sex education, 127–28, 132, 182–83, 198 protein, see fisheries; livestock 135, 137 green investment, 17, 22–23 Public Affairs Centre (India), 197 Sheehan, Molly O’Meara, 39, 197 Millennium Declaration, 20–21 public transportation, 20 Shell International, 44 population priorities, 148 Shell Oil Company, 42, 155 tourism industry, 117–26 Quisumbing, Agnes, 146 Shell Renewables, 41 Sweden, 16, 65, 94, 145, 184–85 Sheraton, 119 Switzerland, 36–37, 185 Rally for Congolese Democracy, Shonan Econometrics, 46 156 Sierra Leone, 106, 151, 155–63, tantalum, 155–56 RARE Center for Tropical 168–71 Tanzania, 112, 161

262 State of the World 2002 INDEX taxes manganese-based compounds, (Rio), xvii–xxii, 4–5, 10, 76, carbon emissions, 31 82 129, 175–79, 183, 196 environmental, 16 persistent organic pollutants, Conference on Population pesticides, 65, 74, 94, 100 75–80, 86–96, 179 and Development (Cairo), tax shifts, 16 polychlorinated biphenyls, 80, 129, 137, 140–41, 148 Tobin tax, 188–89 87, 92, 94 Convention on International tourism, 112–14, 123, 126 polyvinyl chloride, 78–79, 83, Trade in Endangered Species Taylor, Charles, 157, 159 86–87, 92 of Wild Flora and Fauna, 181 Taylor, Paul, 197 Rotterdam Convention on Convention on the Law of technology Prior Informed Consent, the Sea, 181 automobiles, 30, 41, 46 90–91, 100, 178–79 Development Programme, 4, biotechnology, 57–58 Stockholm Convention, 89–90, 12, 16–17, 21, 58, 149, 182 cellular telephones, 155–56 92–93, 96, 100 Economic Commission for coltan conﬂict, 155–56 technology changes, 95–99 Europe, 196 fuel cells, 41 tetraethyl lead, 81–82 Environment Programme, green chemistry, 97–99 tributyltin, 87–88, 94 26, 37–38, 41, 86, 91, recycling, 18–19 see also pesticides; pollution 110, 175–76, 182–83 toxic waste reduction, 95–99 Toxic Release Inventory (U.S.), Financing for Development terrorist attacks of 2001 77, 93 Summit (Monterrey), global focus, 20, 174–76, Toyota, 46 188–89 196–97 tradable permits, 31, 37, 42 Food and Agriculture implications, xix–xxi, 3–5, trade, see economy Organization, 8–9, 57 25, 131 transportation, see speciﬁc types Framework Convention on war on terrorism, 3, 20 Travel Industry Association of Climate Change, 6, 24–50, tetraethyl lead, 81–82 America, 103, 117 178 Thailand, 110 tributyltin, 87–88, 94 General Assembly, 170 The Natural Step, 191 tropical storms, 52 Global Compact, 2000, 190, Third World, see developing Turkey, 144 192, 198 countries Habitat, 197 Third World Network, 189 Uganda, 114–15, 160–61 Human Development Index, Thornton, Joe, 97 Union of International 17, 149, 157 Tilman, David, 54 Organizations, 189 International Children’s Tobin, James, 188 UNITA, 149, 162–63, 169–70 Emergency Fund, 15 Tobin tax, 188–89 United Kingdom International Year of Töpfer, Klaus, 174 agricultural economy, 53–54 Ecotourism, 112, 116 Tour Operators’ Initiative, 119 carbon emissions, 5, 35 Millennium Declaration, 20–21 tourism, see international tourism coal consumption, 35, 37 Population Division, 130 Tourism Concern, 124 Department for International Population Fund, 132, 140 toxic burden, 75–100 Development, 106 Security Council, 158, 168–72 Agenda 21, guidelines, 76 energy policy, 36–37 Summit on Social Development, arsenic, 87, 92 foreign aid contribution, 185 189 Basel Convention, 90–91, 100 international tourism, 105–06 see also World Summit on chemical economy, 77–80 organic farming, 63–64, 96 Sustainable Development chlorine compounds, 79–80 United Nations (Johannesburg) DDT, 87, 90, 96, 179 Centre for Human Settlements, United States DEHP, 86–87 196 Agency for International ethylene dibromide, 81–82 Children’s Fund, 149 Development, 116 gold production, 85–86 Commission on Human Rights, carbon emissions, 5, 34–35, 39, hazardous waste disposal, 99 46, 135 91–93, 100 Commission on Sustainable Centers for Disease Control heavy metals, 76, 80–87, Development, 183, 195 and Prevention, 82, 86–87 93–95 Conference on Environment Central Intelligence Agency, 13 international policy, 89–93 and Development chemical manufacturing, 77

263 State of the World 2002 INDEX

United States (continued) conflicts, 8 World Conservation Union– chronic disease, 14 conservation, 7, 22 IUCN, 8, 63, 193 climate change policy, 5–6, dams, 7–8, 193 World Economic Summit (Davos), 24–25, 40, 44–49, 177 floods, 7–9, 29, 193 38–39, 189 Conservation Reserve Pro- irrigation, 7–8, 56, 193 World Ecotourism Summit, gram, 65–66 population effects, 134 116–17 Council for International scarcity, 6–8, 132–35 World Energy Council, 37–38 Business, 44 wetlands, xx World Environment crop monoculture, 55 see also river systems Organization, 176 cropland distribution, 62 water pollution World Health Organization, 12, dam removal, 7–8 coral reef destruction, 9–10, 14, 72, 85, 143 Department of Energy, 31 55, 111–12 World Meteorological diamond imports, 170 fertilizer runoff, 22, 53–55, 65 Organization, 26, 82 environmental policy, 25–27 Waters-Bayer, Ann, 61 World Neighbors, 51, 62 Environmental Protection Watts, Phillip, 40–41 World Resources Institute, Agency, 82, 93, 182 West Papua, 164–66 8–9, 38, 42 Farm Bill, 66 wetlands, xx World Summit on Sustainable Food and Drug Administration, see also floods Development (Johannesburg) 84 wheat, see grain agriculture priorities, 74 foreign aid, 184–85 Widfuhr, Michael, 70 chemical priorities, 100 infectious disease, 13 Wily, Liz Alden, 61 conflict priorities, 173 international tourism, 105 wind energy, 16, 40, 186 economic priorities, 15–20 leaded gasoline, 81–82 Wolf, Aaron, 8 environmental priorities, 5–10, livestock consumption, 71 women 45, 50 migration, 131 in agriculture, 61, 69, 74 gender equity priorities, 148 military budget, 182 civic freedom, 133 goals, xvii–xxii, 3–23 National Research Council, 29 economic freedom, 21–22, 129, governance priorities, 176, obesity, 71 133, 145 182–83, 198 paper consumption, 9 education, 15, 127–29, 132–33, humanitarian priorities, 10–15, paper recycling, 9 145, 147 148 population policy, 141 political freedom, 133 international tourism priorities, right-to-know laws, 93 sex education, 127–28, 132, 126 Senate Foreign Relations 135, 137 population priorities, 148 Committee, 48–49 vulnerability, 143–45 World Tourism Organization, small arms policy, 171 see also gender disparity 102–04, 106, 113, 117, State Department, 91 World Bank 119 Surgeon General, 81 Development Research World Trade Center attack of 2001 terrorist attacks of 2001, xix–xxi Group, 152 global focus, 20, 174–76, Toxic Release Inventory, 77, 93 emissions trading study, 42 196–97 water conservation, 7, 22 global governance role, implications, xix–xxi, 3–5, 25, urban governance, 197 182–86, 193–94 131 urbanization, see industry; investment in women, 145 war on terrorism, 3, 20 pollution poverty study, 6–7, 17 World Trade Organization, 72, public disclose, 195 175–76, 181, 188–89, Viet Nam, 65, 122 resource exploitation, 162 194–96 voluntary agreements, 37–38 rural lending, 67 World Travel & Tourism Council, Volvo, 44 tourism-related projects, 104, 117, 125 Vorley, William, 71 105, 124 World Wide Fund for Nature, World Business Council for 94, 190 waste management, 18, 91–95, 100 Sustainable Development, World Wildlife Fund, 42, 147, see also pollution; recycling 42 185 water World Commission on Dams, Wyse, Don, 71 aquifer depletion, 56 7, 193

264 State of the World 2002 INDEX

Xerox, 18–20

Zaire, see Congo, Democratic Republic of Zambia, 109, 186 Zelaya, Elias, 52 Zimbabwe, 61, 109, 115, 139, 144, 161

265