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Drought June 2018 FACTSHEET CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT JUNE 2018 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Thank you for supporting the Climate Council. The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: 978-1-925573-60-2 (print) 978-1-925573-61-9 (digital) © Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2018 This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd except where a third party source is indicated. Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org.au. You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner: Factsheet: Climate change and drought factsheet June 2018. Authors: Will Steffen, Martin Rice, Lesley Hughes and Annika Dean. — Cover image: “Lake Hume Footprints” by Flickr user Tim J Keegan licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0. This report is printed on 100% recycled paper. facebook.com/climatecouncil [email protected] twitter.com/climatecouncil climatecouncil.org.au KEY FINDINGS I KEY FINDINGS › Climate change is likely making drought › Queensland and New South Wales are currently conditions in southwest and southeast in the grip of severe drought, with drought Australia worse. declared for 16.4 percent of New South Wales and 57.6 percent of Queensland. › Climate change has contributed to a southward shift in weather systems that typically bring › Current drought conditions come after a cool season rainfall to southern Australia. Since 2016/2017 summer characterised by record- the 1970s late autumn and early winter rainfall breaking temperatures, followed by a record dry has decreased by 15 percent in southeast winter. Rainfall over southern Australia during Australia, and Western Australia’s southwest autumn 2018 was the second lowest on record. region has experienced a 15 percent decline in cool season rainfall. › Time spent in drought is projected to increase in the future across southern Australia. › Climate change is also driving an increase in Future drying trends in Australia will be most the intensity and frequency of hot days and pronounced over southwest Western Australia, heatwaves in Australia, exacerbating drought with total reductions in autumn and winter conditions. precipitation potentially as high as 50 percent by the late 21st century. climatecouncil.org.au II FACTSHEET: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT FACTSHEET JUNE 2018 CONTENTS Key Findings ..................................................................................................................................................................................... I Background .......................................................................................................................................................................................1 Australia’s current drought situation ....................................................................................................................................... 3 How do droughts affect Australians? ........................................................................................................................................7 How will climate change affect droughts in the future? .................................................................................................... 9 References ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Image Credits .................................................................................................................................................................................11 Authors: Professor Will Steffen Professor Lesley Hughes Climate Councillor Climate Councillor Dr Annika Dean Dr Martin Rice Senior Researcher Head of Research CLIMATE COUNCIL 1 FACTSHEET Climate Change and Drought June 2018 BACKGROUND Australia’s rural and regional Current rainfall deficiencies in New South communities are vulnerable to Wales and Queensland have recently a wide range of impacts from received widespread media and political our changing climate. Drought attention. This factsheet explains what is one of the major events that drought is, the influence of climate change can deeply affect communities, on drought in Australia, its impacts, and agriculture, our national how, if climate change continues unabated, economy, human health and droughts are likely to worsen in severity and natural ecosystems. duration in southern Australia. For more detailed information about climate change and drought, please refer to the Climate Council’s report: “Thirsty Country: Climate change and drought in Australia”. 2 FACTSHEET: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT FACTSHEET JUNE 2018 Over the past 30 Australia worse. This is consistent with observations of decreases in cool season years, there has been rainfall in southern Australia over the past 30 years, and consistent with future projections. a discernible decrease At the same time, climate change is likely making northwestern Australia wetter (CSIRO in rainfall across and BoM 2014; 2015). southern Australia. Observed trends on drought in Australia Australia has experienced several major What is drought? droughts during the 20th and early 21st centuries. The most severe droughts were Drought is defined as “a prolonged, the Federation Drought (1895–1903), the abnormally dry period when the amount of World War II drought (1939–1945) and the available water is insufficient to meet our Millennium Drought (1996–2010). A recent normal use” (BOM 2018a). Droughts can be study has found that these major droughts measured in many ways, but meteorologists are without precedent in at least the past monitor the extent and severity of drought 400 years (Freund et al. 2017). Over the past in terms of rainfall deficiencies. A rainfall 30 years, rainfall in the cool season (April deficit occurs when an area’s total rainfall to November) in the southwest of Western over a period is less than the average for Australia and in southeastern Australia has that period (BOM 2018a). shown a discernible decrease compared to natural variability. Southeastern Australia has experienced a 15 percent decline in late What is the influence of climate autumn and early winter rainfall and a 25 change on drought? percent decline in average rainfall in April and May since the 1970s (Climate Council Warming of the climate has contributed 2015; CSIRO and BoM 2014). The southwest towards a southward shift in weather of Western Australia has also experienced fronts from the Southern Ocean, which a decline in cool season rainfall of around typically bring rain to southern Australia 15 percent since the 1970s. These declines during winter and spring. As these weather have contributed to large reductions in fronts have shifted southwards, rainfall in stream flows of up to 60 percent in both southern Australia has declined, increasing the southwest of Western Australia and the the risk of drought conditions. The region Murray-Darling Basin (CSIRO 2010; Potter has also experienced significant warming et al. 2010). Average annual stream flow during the last 50 years (Timbal et al. 2010). into Perth’s dams has decreased by nearly Climate change is driving an increase in 80 percent since the mid-1970s (Climate the intensity and frequency of hot days and Commission 2013). heatwaves in Australia, in turn increasing the severity of droughts. In summary, climate change is likely making drought conditions in southwest and southeast CLIMATE COUNCIL 3 AUSTRALIA’S CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION The Australian summer of 2016/17 In the autumn just past, rainfall across was characterised by record- southern Australia was the second lowest on breaking heat particularly in the record (based on all data since 1900) (BoM east of the continent, driving 2018b). In New South Wales, by 7th June 2018, intense heatwaves, hot days and 16.4 percent of the state was declared drought bushfires in central and eastern affected, 46.6 percent declared in drought Australia. This was followed by a onset and 36.3 percent in drought watch record dry winter, exacerbating (Figure 1) (DPI 2018). This leaves only 0.7 already existing drought conditions. percent of the state that is either recovering from drought or not affected. The latest drought conditions update for New South Wales can be found here: edis.dpi.nsw.gov.au Figure 1: Areas of NSW in drought, drought onset, drought watch, recovering or non-drought (DPI 2018). 4 FACTSHEET: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT FACTSHEET JUNE 2018 Drought declarations are made by state and The latest drought update for Queensland federal governments, taking into account a can be found here: variety of factors including but not limited www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/drought/ to rainfall deficiencies. drought-declarations/ In Queensland, more than 87 percent of the State was declared in drought in March 2017. Currently 57.6 percent of Queensland is in declared drought conditions (as at 17th May) (Queensland Government 2018). Queensland and New South Wales are currently in the grip of severe drought, with drought declared for 16.4 percent of New South Wales
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