Climate Change and Queensland Biodiversity An independent report commissioned by the Department of Environment and Resource Management (Qld) Tim Low © Author: Tim Low Date: March 2011 Citation: Low T. (2011) Climate Change and Terrestrial Biodiversity in Queensland. Department of Environment and Resource Management, Queensland Government, Brisbane. On the Cover: The purple-necked rock wallaby (Petrogale purpureicollis) inhabits a very rocky region – the North-West Highlands – where survival during heatwaves and droughts depends on access to shady rock shelters. Rising temperatures will render many of their smaller shade refuges unusuable. Photo: Brett Taylor Paperbarks (Melaleuca leucadendra) are the trees at most risk from sea level rise, because they are habitat dominants on recently formed plains near the sea where freshwater settles. They were probably scarce when the sea fell during glacials, and tend to support less biodiversity than older forest types. Photo: Jeanette Kemp, DERM Contents 1. Introduction and summary 1 5. Ecological framework 52 1.1 Introduction 1 5.1 The evidence base 53 1.2 Summary 4 5.1.1 Climatically incoherent distributions 53 1.3 Acknowledgements 5 5.1.2 Introduced species distributions 56 5.1.3 Experimental evidence 58 2. Climate change past and future 7 5.1.4 Genetic evidence 58 5.1.5 Fossil evidence 58 2.1 Temperature 8 5.2 Why distributions might not reflect climate 59 2.1.1 Past temperatures 9 5.2.1 Physical constraints 60 2.2 Rainfall 10 5.2.2 Fire 62 2.2.1 Past rainfall 11 5.2.3 Limited dispersal 63 2.3 Drought 12 5.2.4 Evolutionary history 65 2.3.1 Past drought 12 5.2.5 Lack of facilitation 65 2.4 Cyclones 12 5.2.6 Competition 66 2.4.1 Past cyclones 12 5.2.7 Predators and pathogens 70 2.5 Fire 13 5.3 Discussion 71 2.5.1 Past fire 13 5.3.1 High altitude species 71 2.6 Sea level rise 14 5.3.2 Other species 73 2.6.1 Past sea level rise 14 5.4 Management consequences 74 3. Climatic vulnerabilities 15 6. Bioregional reviews 77 3.1 Higher temperatures 15 6.1 Introduction 77 3.1.1 Impacts on plants 15 6.1.1 Methodological premises 77 3.1.2 Impacts on animals 18 6.1.2 Methodological approach 80 3.1.3 Temperature and distribution 22 6.2 North-West Highlands 82 3.2 Changed water availability 23 6.2.1 Climate change 82 3.2.1 Impacts of drought on plants 23 6.2.2 Biogeography 82 3.2.2 Impacts of drought on animals 25 6.2.3 Vegetation 83 3.2.3 Less orographic cloud 26 6.2.4 Fauna 84 3.2.4 Diminished wetlands 27 6.2.5 Management 85 3.3 More rainfall 27 6.3 Gulf Plains 85 3.4 More intense cyclones 28 6.3.1 Climate change 85 3.5 Higher fire risk 29 6.3.2 Biogeography 86 6.3.3 Vegetation 86 3.6 Rising CO2 levels 31 3.6.1 Impacts on plants 31 6.3.4 Fauna 88 3.6.2 Impacts on animals 33 6.3.5 Management 90 3.7 Rising sea levels 34 6.4 Cape York Peninsula 91 3.8 Biotic interactions 35 6.4.1 Climate change 91 6.4.2 Biogeography 91 3.9 Human impacts 37 6.4.3 Vegetation 94 3.10 Conclusions 38 6.4.4 Fauna 95 6.4.5 Management 97 4. Vulnerability of habitats 39 6.5 Mitchell Grass Downs 97 4.1 Eucalypt communities 39 6.5.1 Climate change 98 4.2 Rainforest 44 6.5.2 Biogeography 98 4.3 Mangroves 48 6.5.3 Vegetation 98 4.4 Saltmarshes 50 6.5.4 Fauna 101 6.5.5 Management 101 6.6 Channel Country 102 6.13 Southeast Queensland 144 6.6.1 Climate change 102 6.13.1 Climate change 144 6.6.2 Biogeography 103 6.13.2 Biogeography 144 6.6.3 Vegetation 103 6.13.3 Vegetation 146 6.6.4 Fauna 104 6.13.4 Fauna 150 6.6.5 Management 106 6.13.5 Management 153 6.7 Mulga Lands 107 6.14 New England Tableland 154 6.7.1 Climate change 107 6.14.1 Climate change 154 6.7.2 Biogeography 107 6.14.2 Biogeography 154 6.7.3 Vegetation 108 6.14.3 Vegetation 158 6.7.4 Fauna 109 6.14.4 Fauna 159 6.7.5 Management 111 6.14.5 Management 161 6.8 Wet Tropics 111 6.8.1 Climate change 111 7. Management 162 6.8.2 Biogeography 112 7.1 New conceptual issues 163 6.8.3 Vegetation 113 7.1.1 Focus on climatic spaces 163 6.8.4 Fauna 115 7.1.2 Consider soil attributes 164 6.8.5 Management 120 7.1.3 Promote pollen migration 165 6.9 Central Queensland Coast 121 7.2 Shifts in management focus 167 6.9.1 Climate change 121 7.2.1 Recognise inland to coast corridors 167 6.9.2 Biogeography 122 7.2.2 Highlight Southwest Queensland 167 6.9.3 Vegetation 123 7.2.3 Monitor increasing species 169 6.9.4 Fauna 125 7.3 Increases in emphasis 169 6.9.5 Management 126 7.3.1 Increase protection of refugia 169 6.10 Einasleigh Uplands 127 7.3.2 Increase fire management 170 6.10.1 Climate change 127 7.3.3 Increase weed control 171 6.10.2 Biogeography 127 7.3.4 Increase invasive animal control 173 6.10.3 Vegetation 128 7.4 Research needs 175 6.10.4 Fauna 129 7.4.1 Study vegetation responses 175 6.10.5 Management 131 7.4.3 Study vegetation thickening 176 6.11 Desert Uplands 131 7.4.4 Monitor tree deaths and seedling 6.11.1 Climate change 131 recruitment 176 6.11.2 Biogeography 132 7.4.5 Study the past 176 6.11.3 Vegetation 132 7.4.6 Practise foresighting 177 6.11.4 Fauna 134 7.5 Summary of general recommendations 178 6.11.5 Management 135 6.12 Brigalow Belt 135 8. Sources 179 6.12.1 Climate change 136 8.1. References 179 6.12.2 Biogeography 136 6.12.3 Vegetation 139 8.2 Personal communications 199 6.12.4 Fauna 141 6.12.5 Management 143 1. Introduction and summary Elith and Leathwick 2009; Jackson et al. 2009; Lavergne 1.1 Introduction et al. 2010; Austin and Van Niel 2011), a point considered in section 5. The large number of species in Queensland he potential impacts of climate change on with climatically incoherent distributions implies that biodiversity in Queensland are poorly understood. other methods should be used, at least for these. This T This report is a preliminary attempt to assess likely report draws on all available sources of information, impacts on terrestrial biodiversity at state and bioregional including data on past responses to natural climate levels and to provide policy recommendations. It has a change, to inform a qualitative assessment of the various special focus on dominant plant and on species listed threats, with a particular focus on dominant plants and under Queensland legislation as endangered or vunerable. on currently threatened species. There is no widely accepted methodology for assessing Predictions made in climate change assessments vulnerability to climate change on a large scale. depend strongly on the underlying assumptions, so it A popular approach has been to model the future climatic is important that these are made explicit and justified space of species or biomes (for example Hughes et by referring to relevant literature and expert opinion. al. 1996; Williams et al. 2003), but these modelling Section 5 reviews the relationship between climate and exercises operate from many assumptions that have species distributions as the foundation for developing a been questioned (Hughes et al.1996; Davis et al. 1998; set of ecological assumptions to guide the bioregional Chambers et al. 2005; Hampe and Petit 2005; Heikkinen assessments undertaken in section 5.1). et al. 2006; Ibanez et al. 2006; Lewis 2006; Araujo and This report considers climate projections for 2070 Luoto 2007; Sutherst et al. 2007b; Pearman et al. 2008a; assuming a high emissions scenario. Rocky locations such as Girraween National Park provide such large temperature and moisture gradients that many rock-dwelling species should survive climate change in coming decades by minor adjustments of behaviour. Species distribution models are apt to overstate the risk to these species because their distributions are often small. But some relict species found among rocks are highly vulnerable to climate change. Photo: DERM Climate Change and Queensland Biodiversity 1 1. Introduction and summary Some species appear to face a low risk from climate only cursory treatment of some bioregions (for example change by 2070, but if greenhouse gas emissions keep the Desert Uplands). The assessments are consequently rising, the harm to biodiversity will greatly exceed that very limited, with many significant issues no doubt which is proposed here, with all habitats and most overlooked. The goal of the report has been more to set a species likely to face some threats. Even if emissions framework for future work than to address all the issues. are controlled before 2070, climate change will extend The following chapter (section 2) summarises climate beyond that date, with worse outcomes than those projections used in this report. As the impacts of explored in this report. It is also possible that this report anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity can only significantly underestimates the risks by operating from be understood against the backdrop of past natural assumptions that will be proved incorrect.