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Thirsty Country: Climate Change and Drought in Australia

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Thirsty Country: Climate Change and Drought in Australia THIRSTY COUNTRY: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT IN AUSTRALIA The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Authorship: Will Steffen Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: 978-0-9942453-8-0 (print) 978-0-9942453-7-3 (web) © Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2015 This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd except where a third party source is indicated. Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org.au You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner: Thirsty Country: Climate change and drought in Australia by Will Steffen (Climate Council of Australia). Permission to use third party copyright content in this publication can be sought from the relevant third party copyright owner/s. This report is printed on 100% recycled paper. Professor Will Steffen Climate Councillor Key Findings: 1. Climate change is likely 2. Droughts have far-reaching making drought conditions impacts on health, agriculture in southwest and southeast and native species in Australia. Australia worse. › The relative risk of suicide can › Fronts from the Southern Ocean, increase by up to 15 percent for which typically bring rain across rural males aged 30-49 as the southern Australia during severity of drought increases. winter and spring, have shifted › Between 2002 and 2003 decreases southwards with a warming in agricultural production due to climate, leading to declines in drought resulted in a 1 percent fall rainfall in southwest and southeast in the Gross Domestic Product Australia and increasing the risk (GDP), which is equivalent to half of drought conditions in of Australia’s decline in annual these regions. GDP following the global financial › Since the mid-1990s, southeast crisis in 2009. Australia has experienced a 15 percent decline in the late autumn and early winter rainfall and a 25 percent decline in average rainfall in April and May. › Average annual stream flow into Perth’s dams has already decreased by nearly 80 percent since the mid-1970s. › Climate change is driving an increase in the intensity and frequency of hot days and heatwaves in Australia, in turn increasing the severity of droughts. CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page i PARCHED COUNTRY: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT IN AUSTRALIA 3. Water scarcity will become 4. Droughts are likely to worsen an increasing challenge as in severity and duration the pressure on urban water in southern Australia if supplies intensifies. greenhouse gas emissions are not cut deeply and rapidly. › Water inflows to key Sydney dams such as Warragamba and › Average rainfall in southern Shoalhaven could decrease by as Australia during the cool season much as 25 percent by 2070 if is expected to decline further, greenhouse gas emissions continue and the time spent in drought on their current trajectory. conditions is projected to increase. › Annual water demand is projected › In Western Australia total to outstrip supply in Perth and reductions in autumn and winter surrounding regions by as much precipitation could be potentially as 85 billion litres by 2030. That’s as high as 50 percent in the next enough water to fill 34,000 Olympic 80 years. sized swimming pools. › To stabilise the climate, we must › Average annual stream flows to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas Melbourne’s four major water emissions, increase investment harvesting storages could decrease in clean energy, and most of the by seven percent by 2020 and by world’s fossil fuel reserves – coal, 18 percent by 2050. oil and gas - must remain in the ground. Page ii CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Introduction Drought has deeply affected Australia We begin this report by describing throughout its history. The Millennium what a drought is, before considering Drought from 1996-2010 serves as a its consequences for health, the recent reminder of the wide-reaching economy, ecosystems and urban water impacts that drought can have on supplies. We then outline the changing Australia’s people and environment. drought conditions and increasing drying trends in Australia and explore Australia is the driest inhabited continent recent dry conditions in various parts of on Earth and drought is an important the country. We conclude by exploring feature of Australia’s climate. Whilst how climate change is influencing Australians have always lived with drought conditions in the southeast drought and its consequences, it is likely and southwest of the continent as well that climate change is making drought as drying trends globally. worse in the southeast and southwest, some of our most populous regions. CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 1 PARCHED COUNTRY: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT IN AUSTRALIA 1. What is a drought? Australia is the driest inhabited continent which is measured through deficits on Earth, with some of the world’s most in soil moisture, and hydrological variable rainfall and stream-flow (DFAT drought, which is based on anomalies 2014). The country has been deeply in stream flow, lake and/or groundwater affected by drought throughout history, levels (IPCC 2012). Both of these with significant droughts such as the definitions are important in terms of Federation Drought (1895–1903), which understanding the impacts of drought, led to the loss of millions of cattle, and and the consequences of climate the World War II drought (1939–1945), change for these impacts. which contributed to plummeting wheat As outlined by the Intergovernmental yields and disastrous bushfires (BoM Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ‘climate 2014a; 2014b). The ‘Big Dry’ of 1996–2010 extremes, such as drought, may be the (also called the Millennium Drought) result of an accumulation of weather went down in history as one of the worst or climate events that are not extreme droughts on record for Australia, with when considered independently’ (IPCC devastating impacts (van Dijk et al. 2013). 2012, p.7). In Australia, the Bureau of Drought can be defined in a variety of Meteorology (BoM) measures drought different ways. In terms of its links to by monitoring ‘serious’ or ‘severe’ rainfall climate change, drought is best defined deficiencies that have occurred for three as meteorological drought, which is months or more. A rainfall deficiency ‘a prolonged, abnormally dry period is considered ‘serious’ when rainfall is when the amount of available water is in the lowest 5-10 percent of the full insufficient to meet our normal use’ range of rainfall amounts, from the very and is generally measured by assessing lowest to the very highest, for the period rainfall deficiencies over three or more measured, and ‘severe’ when rainfall is months (BoM 2014c). in the lowest 0-5 percent of the range. Whilst BoM tracks rainfall deficiencies, In addition to meteorological drought, it is the responsibility of the State and/or two other definitions of drought are Federal Governments to officially declare used by different economic sectors or a drought (BoM 2012). areas of research: agricultural drought, Page 2 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 2. What are the consequences of drought? Drought has significant impacts on “Drought can contribute to health, the economy, ecosystems and urban water supplies. declines in human health and increases in mortality rates.” “The World Meteorological Organization has linked found that the relative risk of suicide can increase by up to 15 percent for rural drought to 680,000 deaths males aged 30–49 as the severity of globally from 1970–2012.” drought increases (Hanigan et al. 2012). 2.2 Economic 2.1 Health Drought affects agriculture, tourism, Droughts can have wide ranging effects employment and livelihoods in Australia, on health including on nutrition, with severe economic repercussions. infectious diseases, on forest fires Between 2002 and 2003 decreases in causing air pollution, and mental health agricultural production due to drought problems, such as post-traumatic resulted in a 1% reduction in the Gross stress and suicidal behaviour (Haines Domestic Product (GDP) and a 28.5% et al 2006; Climate Commission fall in the gross value added for the 2011). Droughts can also contribute to agricultural industry compared to increases in mortality rates. The World the preceding year (ABS 2004). This Meteorological Organization (WMO) has is a significant hit to the economy, linked drought to 680,000 deaths globally considering that the global financial from 1970–2012 (WMO 2014). Declines crisis caused a reduction of 2 percent in physical health are also particularly in Australia’s annual GDP from 2008 to prevalent amongst the elderly in drought 2009 (World Bank 2015). The predicted affected rural communities in Australia increase in drought frequency in the (Horton et al. 2010). Furthermore, future has been estimated to cost drought can play a role in exacerbating $5.4 billion annually, reducing GDP by mental health issues and increasing 1 percent per annum (Carroll et al 2007). suicide rates in Australian drought- Several important agricultural areas, affected rural populations, especially including southwest Western Australia, amongst male farmers (Alston 2012). parts of central Queensland and A recent study in New South Wales (NSW) CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 3 PARCHED COUNTRY: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT IN AUSTRALIA northern New South Wales, Victoria More recently the Millennium Drought and southern South Australia, and most in southeast Australia, which lasted of Tasmania, received below-average from 1996 to 2010, was one of the worst annual rainfall for 2014 (BoM 2015a). on record for the region (van Dijk et al. Significantly reduced rainfall in winter 2013).
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